Jacksonville opened Week 9 by beating Baltimore 33-10 on Thursday, the Ravens’ fourth straight loss, and Buffalo closed it Monday by holding Minnesota to 178 yards in a 23-6 win. In between, Green Bay put 45 points on New England, the Giants won in Philadelphia for the first time in more than a decade, Houston sacked Justin Herbert eight times, and the Chargers fell to 0-8. The Eagles have lost seven straight, and Jalen Hurts is out for the season.

Tuesday’s trade deadline sent Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, Keenan Allen to San Francisco and Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston. Jacksonville added Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, and Baltimore has Jacoby Brissett for Monday night.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 9 Recap

Lines are the ones we published last week.

Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 (Thursday)

Box score · Our review · Line: Jaguars -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

What decided it: The quarterback situation, as expected. Fagnano threw for 60 yards on 11-of-19 passing with two second-half interceptions, so Baltimore’s 172 rushing yards on 34 carries went nowhere. Trevor Lawrence threw for 242 yards and a touchdown without being sacked, and Cam Little made all four field goal tries. Baltimore has now lost four straight and fell to 4-5. Kyle Hamilton left with a hip injury.

Bengals 34, Falcons 17 (Madrid)

Box score · Line: Bengals -3, 52.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Michael Penix Jr.’s four interceptions in the rain were a one-off (Atlanta has been first in points per game since Week 3, per ESPN), and Cincinnati’s defense, 15th in DVOA, with DJ Turner II’s ankle.

What decided it: Cincinnati’s offense, which scored on every first-half possession. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth. Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards, 142 of them in the first half, and Tee Higgins caught two touchdowns. Penix’s turnover problem mostly didn’t carry over: he threw one interception, late, and ran for a career-high 50 yards. But he averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt (Marc Raimondi, ESPN). Bijan Robinson ran for 100 yards, 42 of them on the opening drive. Cincinnati never sacked Penix, but its defense held after Atlanta’s 10 first-quarter points. The Bengals have won four straight, scoring 30 or more in each.

Saints 23, Browns 22 (OT)

Box score · Line: Saints -2.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: We picked against the line and the model, with low confidence. The case was Cleveland’s defensive line, fourth on our list, against a Saints line 18th, set against a Browns offensive line that ranks last and New Orleans coming off its bye.

What decided it: Cleveland’s offensive line, not its defensive front. The Saints sacked Shedeur Sanders five times, two of them by Carl Granderson. Two sacks came on red-zone trips that ended in field goals (Ringer Staff). In his first start of the season, Sanders still threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns, including a 64-yard score to KC Concepcion Jr. that put Cleveland ahead with 5:33 left. Audric Estime’s 2-yard run with 58 seconds left put New Orleans back in front, and Andre Szmyt’s 51-yard field goal forced overtime. Tyler Shough hit Juwan Johnson for a 15-yard touchdown on the first overtime possession. Harold Fannin Jr. answered with a 39-yard catch-and-run with a minute left. Todd Monken went for two, and Sanders, flushed right by Granderson, threw incomplete. Maliek Collins was inactive.

Cowboys 27, Colts 23

Box score · Line: Cowboys -6, 51.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: The Colts after the Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner trades and Daniel Jones’ benching; a Dallas defense last in EPA per play (Bill Barnwell); and the Colts’ quarterback and Jonathan Taylor’s status. George Pickens and Joey Porter Jr. were inactive for Dallas.

What decided it: Dallas’ passing game, and just enough of it to survive 14 penalties for 153 yards. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards, and Javonte Williams ran for 101. Dallas outgained Indianapolis 508 yards to 271, the first time all season the Cowboys held an opponent under 300 (CBS). But two lost fumbles and the flags kept the Colts close. Spencer Shrader’s field goals from 59 and 50 yards put Indianapolis up 23-20 with 1:37 left. Prescott hit Ryan Flournoy for 46 yards, and Shane Steichen let Williams score from the 1 to get the ball back. Caleb Downs then intercepted Daniel Jones with 35 seconds left. Jones started and threw for 180 yards. Jonathan Taylor ran 13 times for 46 yards and lost a fumble.

Broncos 26, Panthers 21

Box score · Line: Broncos -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: Denver’s defensive line, third on our list, against a Carolina offensive line 26th and without Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis.

What decided it: Denver’s front, at the end. Bryce Young threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns against a secondary missing both starting safeties. Then, with 1:24 left, Nik Bonitto beat left tackle Rasheed Walker to the outside and strip-sacked him; Bonitto recovered the fumble. Denver sacked Young three times in all. The other turn came at the Denver 1 late in the third quarter. Sean Payton’s challenge was ruled to have come before the next snap, and review turned an incompletion into Devon Key’s interception. Carolina, without its top four cornerbacks, had two practice-squad call-ups flagged for five pass interference penalties (AP). Bo Nix threw two touchdowns. Denver has won five straight and 16 straight one-score games, and it goes into its bye at 7-2.

Lions 19, Dolphins 9

Box score · Line: Lions -7, 50.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Detroit’s defensive injuries (Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, DJ Wonnum, D.J. Reed) and Miami’s run game without Kadyn Proctor.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, without Jack Campbell, D.J. Reed or DJ Wonnum. Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards with an interception and was sacked three times, twice by Derrick Moore (CBS); he was playing through a groin injury. Miami went 0 for 3 in the red zone, and its only play over 20 yards was a fake punt (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Proctor played, and Miami still ran for fewer than 80 yards for the second straight game (Marcel Louis-Jacques, ESPN). Detroit’s offense was ordinary. Jared Goff was sacked three times in the first half and threw for 170 yards. Jake Bates kicked four field goals around Jahmyr Gibbs’ fourth-down touchdown run.

Rams 20, Commanders 13

Box score · Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: The Rams’ offensive line, third on our list, against a Washington front without Daron Payne, and Matthew Stafford under 225 yards in three straight games.

What decided it: Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua. In his first game since Week 1, Garrett had three of the Rams’ four sacks: a strip-sack that set up a field goal before halftime and two in the fourth quarter. Nacua caught 14 of the 19 passes thrown his way for 150 yards, including the tiebreaking 7-yard touchdown early in the fourth. The Rams’ other receivers caught four passes for 36 yards (Sarah Barshop, ESPN). Washington scored once in the final 44 minutes. Matthew Stafford threw for 219 yards with an interception, his fourth straight game under 225, and the Rams went 3 for 14 on third down. Nacua hurt his knee and is likely headed to injured reserve with MCL and PCL sprains and turf toe (CBS).

Giants 19, Eagles 11

Box score · Line: Giants -3.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: We picked the Giants with low confidence. J.J. McCarthy was making his second start, after a bye and on the road, against an Eagles team that had allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game (Fox) and lost six straight.

What decided it: The Giants’ pass rush. New York sacked Joe Milton, who started in place of the benched Tanner McKee, seven times. Rookie Arvell Reese had three of the sacks, along with a forced fumble and 12 tackles (Jordan Raanan, ESPN). Milton completed 18 of 34 passes for 169 yards. McCarthy left with a hip injury in the third quarter with the Giants down 8-6. Jameis Winston threw the go-ahead 5-yard touchdown to Isaiah Likely, and McCarthy came back for the last play of the quarter. Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals. It was the Giants’ first win in Philadelphia in more than a decade and the Eagles’ seventh straight loss.

Chiefs 35, Jets 12

Box score · Line: Chiefs -9.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: Kansas City’s run game (Kenneth Walker III at 3.0 yards a carry over two losses, per CBS) against a Jets run defense 31st since Week 3 (ESPN), and Braelon Allen.

What decided it: The run game came back. Kenneth Walker III ran for 102 yards and a touchdown and caught two touchdown passes, and Kansas City ran for 163 yards on 32 carries. The Chiefs came in with nine sacks all season and sacked Geno Smith five times: two each for Chris Jones and George Karlaftis and one for Ashton Gillotte. The Jets got four Jason Sanders field goals and nothing else, finishing with 229 yards and getting shut out in the second half. Patrick Mahomes threw for 242 yards after David Bailey’s strip-sack bent his right elbow before halftime; he’ll have more testing. Harrison Butker missed from 56 yards and then, after a penalty, from 51.

Texans 44, Chargers 22

Box score · Line: Texans -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: The Chargers had gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown behind our 30th-ranked offensive line, and they faced Houston’s fifth-ranked defensive line, coming off a bye.

What decided it: Exactly that. Houston sacked Justin Herbert a career-high eight times, with two each from Will Anderson Jr. and Jadeveon Clowney (CBS). The Chargers’ drought reached 37 drives before Quentin Johnston’s 58-yard catch in the fourth quarter. C.J. Stroud had been sick all week and threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns, two of them 63-yarders to Tank Dell and Kayshon Boutte. Herbert left late with a finger injury. The Chargers are 0-8.

Seahawks 17, Cardinals 3

Box score · Line: Seahawks -11.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Arizona’s health (Gardner Minshew expected to start, per Pete Prisco; Jeremiyah Love’s ankle; Bam Knight’s concussion) and Seattle’s run game behind Quenton Nelson, who led the way for 81 yards Monday.

What decided it: Seattle’s defense. Arizona reached the red zone twice and got three points, failing on fourth-and-goal from the 2. Minshew completed 21 of 30 passes for 166 yards and was sacked three times. Love was on injured reserve and Knight was inactive. Sam Darnold was out with a quad injury and a cracked rib, and Drew Lock played through elbow and oblique injuries to complete 19 of 28 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown. Nelson was inactive, along with left tackle Charles Cross, and Seattle still ran for more than 100 yards, led by Zach Charbonnet (CBS). AJ Barner scored on a run and a catch.

Packers 45, Patriots 27

Box score · Line: Patriots -3, 46.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Both New England lines, in our top 8, against a Green Bay offensive line 31st and the league’s worst run game; Micah Parsons practicing (Pete Prisco); and A.J. Brown’s knee.

What decided it: Green Bay’s passing game and four New England turnovers. Jordan Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Christian Watson (171 yards) and Matthew Golden (164) both topped 150, much of it against Christian Gonzalez. The league’s worst run game ran for 129 yards, 68 of them by Kaleb Johnson. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions, two of which set up touchdowns, and Green Bay scored 21 points off the four turnovers. Both New England lines were in our top 8, and neither showed it; Karl Brooks had two sacks beating the Patriots’ guards (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). A.J. Brown was inactive. Carlton Davis III, Ben Brown, Will Campbell, Brenden Schooler and Rhamondre Stevenson all left hurt.

49ers 38, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: 49ers -10, 51.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: DeForest Buckner’s first game back, against a Raiders defense that had allowed 30-plus points five straight weeks (ESPN) and ranks 31st on our defensive line list.

What decided it: Five San Francisco takeaways in the second half. The first was Jaden Dugger’s interception return for a touchdown on the first play of the third quarter. Kirk Cousins threw three second-half interceptions, and the Raiders lost two fumbles, one by Michael Mayer at the goal line. Las Vegas allowed 30 or more for a sixth straight game, tying an NFL record (AP), and gave up 190 rushing yards (Ryan McFadden, ESPN). Brock Purdy threw two touchdowns and ran for one, and Christian McCaffrey scored twice. Nick Bosa returned. Rookie defensive tackle Gracen Halton broke his ankle and is out for the season.

Bears 27, Buccaneers 24

Box score · Line: Bears -4.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game (582 yards in two weeks) against a Chicago front 26th in run stop win rate and without Grady Jarrett.

What decided it: Turnovers, both ways. Chicago led 14-0 after a quarter, then gave the ball away five times. Caleb Williams threw four interceptions, two of them throwaways under interior pressure (Ringer Staff), and Luther Burden III’s fumble set up Tampa Bay’s tying touchdown and two-point conversion with 2:51 left. The Bucs got only a field goal and that touchdown out of the five takeaways. Jaylon Johnson’s 67-yard interception return was the difference. Williams then hit Colston Loveland for 38 yards to set up Cairo Santos’ 38-yard field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay’s run game had 582 yards over its previous two games but managed 126 against a Chicago front that added Jeffery Simmons (one sack). Bucky Irving had 97 yards and two touchdowns.

Bills 23, Vikings 6 (Monday)

Box score · Line: Bills -3.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, second on our defensive line list, against Josh Allen, and an offense under Kyler Murray that ranked 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff). Murray was ruled out with a hamstring injury, and Carson Wentz started.

What decided it: Minnesota’s offense, or what was left of it. Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes for 81 yards with two interceptions and lost a fumble on a backward pass, and Max Brosmer replaced him in the fourth quarter. The Vikings finished with 178 yards and ran the ball 12 times. Their defense did its part: it sacked Allen four times, and Byron Murphy returned an interception deep into Buffalo territory. But Buffalo held the ball for 42:32. James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a late touchdown, Allen hit Keleki Latu for a 25-yard touchdown just before halftime, and Tyler Bass kicked three field goals. Buffalo did it without left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson.

Power Rankings

Draft order for Chris to set. The outside columns are final.

DVOA is FTN’s total through Week 9. ESPN is its Week 10 power panel, NFL.com is Nick Shook’s Week 10 rankings, and Prisco is Pete Prisco’s (CBS Sports) Week 10 list.

1. 49ers (1): Five takeaways in the second half at Las Vegas, and still first on our offensive line list. Keenan Allen arrives for a thin receiver room.

2. Bills (2): Held the ball for 42:32 in Minnesota without their left tackle and left guard. ESPN and Prisco have them first.

3. Jaguars (3): Beat Baltimore by 23 and lead FTN’s DVOA. The deadline brought Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux.

4. Bears (5): Survived five turnovers against Tampa Bay on Jaylon Johnson’s pick-six and Cairo Santos’ last-second field goal. They pass Denver on a close call; both are 7-2.

5. Broncos (4): Five straight wins and 16 straight in one-score games, with our third-ranked defensive line. Bye this week.

6. Bengals (8): Four straight wins, 30 or more points in each, and third in DVOA. Pittsburgh comes to town Sunday night.

7. Chiefs (6): The run game came back against the Jets, but Patrick Mahomes’ right elbow needs more testing. One elite line (offense, fourth) and one weak (defense, 25th), so they’re ranked on results.

8. Steelers (10): Up two on their bye, with our sixth-ranked defensive line and sixth in DVOA.

9. Lions (11): Beat Miami without three defensive starters and added Andre Cisco. Patriots in Munich next.

10. Vikings (7): Down three after 178 yards in Buffalo with Carson Wentz. Their defensive line is second on our list, and Kirk Cousins is on the way.

11. Seahawks (12): Held Arizona to three points without Sam Darnold, and their defensive line is first on our list.

12. Packers (15): Up three after 45 points in New England. Both their lines are in our bottom 12 (offense 31st, defense 23rd), which by our rule would move them down; results win this week, and the lines keep them behind the 6-2 teams.

13. Rams (13): Myles Garrett had three sacks in his return, but Puka Nacua is headed to injured reserve and Matthew Stafford has gone four straight games under 225 yards.

14. Patriots (9): Down five after four turnovers against Green Bay. Both lines are still in our top 8, which by our rule moves a team up, but Will Campbell and Ben Brown left hurt, and the results come first this week.

15. Buccaneers (14): Five takeaways in Chicago and a loss anyway. Seventh in DVOA, on bye this week.

16. Giants (17): Seven sacks and their first win in Philadelphia in more than a decade. J.J. McCarthy’s hip is the question for Thursday.

17. Texans (22): Up five after eight sacks and C.J. Stroud’s five touchdowns against the Chargers. Our fifth-ranked defensive line, now with Marvin Harrison Jr. on offense.

18. Browns (16): Lost in overtime in New Orleans after giving up five sacks. Last on our offensive line list and fourth on our defensive list, so they’re ranked on results.

19. Panthers (18): Bryce Young threw three touchdowns in Denver, but the secondary is down to its backups.

20. Falcons (19): Never caught up in Madrid, and they traded Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville.

21. Cowboys (24): Up three on Dak Prescott’s 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb’s 195, despite 14 penalties. Their defensive line is last on our list.

22. Raiders (21): Allowed 30 or more for a sixth straight game, tying an NFL record, then traded Kirk Cousins.

23. Ravens (20): Down three after their fourth straight loss. Jacoby Brissett starts Monday against the Chargers.

24. Saints (26): Beat Cleveland in overtime behind five sacks.

25. Cardinals (23): Three points in Seattle, and Gardner Minshew is likely out for the season. Rookie Carson Beck starts.

26. Commanders (25): Scored once in the last 44 minutes against the Rams. At the Giants on Thursday.

27. Jets (27): 229 yards and no second-half points in Kansas City.

28. Eagles (28): Seven straight losses, seven sacks allowed Sunday, and no Jalen Hurts for the rest of the season. Bye this week.

29. Colts (29): Took Dallas to the final minute after trading Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen.

30. Dolphins (30): Zero for 3 in the red zone in Detroit, and fewer than 80 rushing yards for a second straight game.

31. Titans (31): On bye, and they sent Amani Hooker to Buffalo at the deadline.

32. Chargers (32): 0-8, eight sacks allowed in Houston, and 37 straight drives without a touchdown before Quentin Johnston’s catch.

Offensive Lines

Every line is judged on the season against the defenses it has faced, with injuries applied on top. Win rates don’t capture penalties. ESPN’s team win rates hadn’t been updated for Week 9 when we published, so the win-rate columns in both line lists run through Week 8; the sack and rushing columns include Week 9.

• Rams (2): They moved past Buffalo on the season sack rate: 3.3%, tied with the 49ers and Raiders for the best in the league and 2.5 points under what their opponents allow. They also ran for 124 yards at Washington.
• Bills (3): They slipped a spot after taking four sacks at Minnesota without left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson. They still ran 44 times for 134 yards and held the ball for 42:32.
• Falcons (8): They’re in for the Steelers, who drop to ninth on their bye. Atlanta’s 4.8 yards per carry is 0.7 better than its opponents allow.
• Packers (31) and Browns (32): Still the bottom two. Green Bay ran for 129 yards at New England, but it ranks last in pass block win rate and averages 3.0 yards a carry. Cleveland gave up five more sacks at New Orleans and is at 11.8% for the season.
• Seahawks (20): They played without left tackle Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson. Ben Solak (ESPN) reports Nelson had a “minor procedure” on his knee and will miss a few weeks.
• First out: Steelers, Bengals, Colts.

Defensive Lines

• Buccaneers (7): They’re in, with the league’s best defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay held Chicago to 72 rushing yards and allows 0.6 yards per carry less than its opponents gain.
• Chargers (13): Out from seventh. They had one sack of C.J. Stroud and allowed 104 rushing yards to Houston.
• Browns (4): Held, with Maliek Collins out again. New Orleans ran for 160 yards.
• Seahawks (1): Held Arizona to 50 rushing yards and sacked Gardner Minshew three times.
• Jaguars (12): Moved up by hand from 24th on the numbers. Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux, both added at the deadline, go at the line’s weak spot: it’s last in run stop win rate, but third in defensive DVOA and fifth in pass rush win rate.
• 49ers (9) and Bears (15): Moved up by hand from 14th and 21st on the numbers. DeForest Buckner and Nick Bosa are both back in San Francisco, which allows 0.8 yards per carry less than its opponents gain. Jeffery Simmons has two games in Chicago, which is still without Grady Jarrett.
• First out: 49ers, Falcons, Ravens.

Moved by hand for players added or returned; the figures are as measured.

Win Totals

Projected final records. They add up to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, counted in both records, with 135 wins and the tie banked through Week 9.

• AFC seeds: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the top seed, Denver third and the AFC North winner fourth. Wild cards: the AFC North runner-up, Kansas City and New England. First out: Houston and Cleveland.
• NFC seeds: San Francisco, Chicago, the Giants and the NFC South winner. Wild cards: Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay. First out: Seattle and the Rams.
• Kansas City reversal: The first team out in August, the Chiefs are now 11-6, a game behind Denver and a wild card.
• Ties not projected: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the AFC top seed; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (AFC North); Carolina and Tampa Bay (NFC South); Minnesota, Detroit and Green Bay for second in the NFC North; Seattle and the Rams.
• What moved: Up one each, Bills, Jaguars, Broncos, Dolphins, Giants, Packers, Saints and Rams. Down one each, Patriots, Browns, Ravens, Raiders, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings and Cardinals.
• Ravens: 7-10 assumes Jacoby Brissett starts until Lamar Jackson’s return, which is no earlier than Dec. 13.
• Calls most likely to move after Week 10: Patriots 9-8 vs. Lions 11-6 (Munich); Vikings 11-6 at Packers 11-6; Steelers 11-6 at Bengals 11-6; Chiefs 11-6 at Falcons 7-10; Texans 8-9 at Browns 8-9; Chargers 2-15 at Ravens 7-10; Panthers 8-9 at Saints 7-10.

Week 10 Preview

Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are on bye.

Commanders at Giants (Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video)

Line: Giants -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Giants 50.8%

Key to the Game: J.J. McCarthy’s hip and the Giants’ pass rush. McCarthy left Sunday’s win in Philadelphia with a hip injury and came back only for the last play of the third quarter, and now he has a short week. New York sacked Joe Milton seven times, three by rookie Arvell Reese, and gets a Washington line that’s 21st on our list and may be without Lucas Patrick (concussion). These teams tied in their first meeting.

Our Pick: Giants. Low confidence: ESPN’s model has it at a coin flip, and McCarthy’s hip could swing it.

Patriots vs. Lions (Munich, 9:30 a.m., Fox)

Line: Lions -2.5, 51.5 · ESPN: Lions 52.9%

Key to the Game: Who’s left on New England’s offensive line. Will Campbell and Ben Brown both left Sunday’s loss to Green Bay hurt, along with Carlton Davis III and Rhamondre Stevenson, and the line that’s fifth on our list was built with them. Detroit’s defense held Miami to nine points without Jack Campbell, D.J. Reed or DJ Wonnum, and it added safety Andre Cisco at the deadline. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions Sunday.

Our Pick: Lions.

Chiefs at Falcons (1:00, CBS)

Line: Chiefs -3.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 76.3%

Key to the Game: Patrick Mahomes’ right elbow. He played through David Bailey’s hit Sunday and threw for 242 yards, but he’s having more testing, and Harrison Butker’s job is uncertain after two misses. Atlanta’s offensive line is eighth on our list against a Kansas City front that’s 25th, though the Chiefs sacked Geno Smith five times. The Falcons traded safety Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville at the deadline.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Texans at Browns (1:00, Fox)

Line: Texans -4.5, 39.5 · ESPN: Texans 78.6%

Key to the Game: Two mismatches, one each way. Houston’s defensive line, fifth on our list, sacked Justin Herbert eight times Sunday, and Cleveland’s offensive line is last after giving up five sacks in New Orleans. Cleveland’s front is fourth, against a Houston line that’s 27th. Deshaun Watson is expected back from his concussion, and the Texans added Marvin Harrison Jr. at the deadline.

Our Pick: Texans.

Vikings at Packers (1:00, Fox)

Line: Packers -3.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Packers 69.7%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s quarterback. Kyler Murray missed Monday’s loss in Buffalo with a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz completed 8 of 25 passes, and the Vikings traded for Kirk Cousins at the deadline. Minnesota’s defensive line, second on our list, sacked Josh Allen four times and now gets a Green Bay line that’s 31st. Jordan Love threw for 372 yards against New England anyway.

Our Pick: Packers. Low confidence: Minnesota’s front is the biggest edge on the field, and a healthy Murray would change our read.

Jaguars at Titans (1:00, Fox)

Line: Jaguars -10, 46.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 84.0%

Key to the Game: How fast Jacksonville’s deadline additions fit. The Jaguars added Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to a defensive line we’ve moved up to 12th by hand for those trades, after it fell to 24th on the numbers without DaVon Hamilton, and Jessie Bates III to a secondary that lost Eric Murray for the season. Tennessee is 1-7 and 23rd on our offensive line list.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Dolphins at Colts (1:00, CBS)

Line: Colts -2.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Colts 71.9%

Key to the Game: Whether Miami can run on an Indianapolis front that’s 30th on our list. The Dolphins have run for fewer than 80 yards in two straight games, and Malik Willis is playing through a groin injury. The Colts traded Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen and are down to five healthy receivers.

Our Pick: Colts.

Panthers at Saints (1:00, Fox)

Line: Saints -1.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Saints 50.0%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s secondary. The Panthers played Denver without their top four cornerbacks or either starting safety and were flagged for five pass interference penalties. New Orleans sacked Shedeur Sanders five times and gets a Carolina line that’s 25th on our list, but Erik McCoy (biceps) is a question for the Saints’ line.

Our Pick: Saints. Low confidence: ESPN’s model has it at exactly 50%, and we’re leaning on Carolina’s injuries in the secondary.

Bills at Jets (1:00, CBS)

Line: Bills -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: Bills 80.0%

Key to the Game: Buffalo’s pass defense. The Bills allow the fourth-most passing yards per game (CBS), which is why they traded for Amani Hooker. The Jets managed 229 yards in Kansas City, and Garrett Wilson (concussion) missed that game. Buffalo beat Minnesota without Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson by keeping the ball for more than 42 minutes.

Our Pick: Bills.

Seahawks at Raiders (4:05, CBS)

Line: Seahawks -6, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 60.3%

Key to the Game: Las Vegas’ quarterback. The Raiders traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota at the deadline and hadn’t named a starter when we published. Seattle’s defensive line is first on our list, and the Raiders have allowed 30 or more in six straight games. Drew Lock starts again with Sam Darnold ruled out, and Quenton Nelson is out a few weeks after a minor knee procedure.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Rams at Cardinals (4:05, CBS)

Line: Rams -9.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Rams 78.7%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ passing game without Puka Nacua, who’s headed to injured reserve. He caught 14 passes Sunday; the Rams’ other receivers caught four. Arizona starts rookie Carson Beck with Gardner Minshew likely out for the season, and Michael Wilson is out for the year too. Myles Garrett had three sacks in his return.

Our Pick: Rams.

49ers at Cowboys (4:25, Fox)

Line: 49ers -3.5, 55.5 · ESPN: 49ers 63.5%

Key to the Game: San Francisco’s offensive line, first on our list, against a Dallas front that’s last. The 49ers ran for 190 yards in Las Vegas. Dallas outgained Indianapolis by more than 200 yards Sunday but committed 14 penalties. Keenan Allen joins a 49ers receiver room that’s missing Christian Kirk.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Steelers at Bengals (Sunday night, 8:20, NBC)

Line: Bengals -3.5, 48.5 · ESPN: Bengals 70.3%

Key to the Game: Pittsburgh’s defensive line, sixth on our list, against a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 or more in four straight wins. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 passes in Madrid, and the Bengals’ line is 10th. The Steelers are coming off their bye.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Chargers at Ravens (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN)

Line: Ravens -5.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Chargers 55.1%

Key to the Game: Jacoby Brissett’s first start for Baltimore after the trade from Arizona, behind a run game that piled up 172 yards on Jacksonville. The Chargers are 0-8, and their line, 29th on our list, gave up eight sacks in Houston. Justin Herbert left that game late with a finger injury he says shouldn’t be an issue. Kyle Hamilton’s hip is the Ravens’ defensive question.

Our Pick: Ravens. We’re against ESPN’s model here: Brissett is an upgrade on Joe Fagnano, and Baltimore’s defensive line, 11th on our list, gets a Chargers line that just gave up eight.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Running the ball didn’t decide much. The team with more rushing yards won 9 of 15 games. Jacksonville was outrushed 172-77 in Baltimore and won by 23, and Chicago was outrushed 126-72 and beat Tampa Bay anyway.

2. Neither did the sack count. The team with more sacks won nine games, and two were even. Cincinnati never sacked Michael Penix Jr. and won by 17, and Buffalo was sacked four times, twice as often as it sacked Carson Wentz, and still won 23-6.

3. Takeaways only count if you use them. Tampa Bay took the ball away five times in Chicago and got a field goal and a touchdown out of them. Green Bay turned four New England turnovers into 21 points.

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That is where the season stands. The judges have stopped previewing the season and started grading it. In October, eligibility was a question every ranking had to hedge. Now it is an answer, and teams are moving on it.

RJ Godfrey’s lawsuit for a fifth year was denied. Arizona, a Final Four team last season, opened with an 84-75 loss to UCLA and made one three-pointer in the first half. Trey Kaufman-Renn’s request for a sixth year, after four seasons at Purdue, was granted for now. He is 11-of-13 through two games, and Kansas has climbed to fifth in KenPom and second in Torvik.

The pattern runs down the list. Texas Tech got Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams. Gonzaga got Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett. St. John’s got Quinn Ellis from the NCAA and Keyshawn Hall from a judge, and Hall scored 26 in his debut. More of these cases have gone the players’ way than against them, and every one of them can still be reversed on appeal.

Meanwhile, the teams with nothing in court have done what they were expected to do. Duke is first in both KenPom and Torvik and has passed Florida as the betting favorite. Florida is still No. 1 in both polls. Illinois scored 120 in its opener.

The next eight days test all of it. Tuesday brings Duke and Michigan State in the Champions Classic, Kansas and Kentucky in the nightcap, Illinois at Texas Tech and Florida at Florida State. A week later, Illinois visits Duke and Michigan State goes to Tennessee.

One week in, here is what we’ve seen and where we think it’s going.

Quick Hits

No. 9 Virginia 91, No. 12 Arkansas 72 (Washington, Nov. 8th). The most convincing win by anyone so far. Virginia started its four returning starters, made 12 threes, shot 46% and led by 27. Thijs De Ridder had 16 and 10. It was Virginia’s first win over an AP top-15 team since November 2023 and its biggest margin over a ranked opponent since 2021. Arkansas, picked third in the SEC by CBS’s panel, has lost four straight to AP top-10 teams.

Valparaiso over Purdue in double overtime (West Lafayette). It left Purdue 0-2 for the first time since 1976-77 and dropped out of both polls. Losing to Gonzaga was fine. Losing at home to Valparaiso was not.

Memphis 89, VCU 88 (Nov. 7th). Jayden Reid scored 32 with 7 assists, a week after his 26 beat Iowa State. Memphis received the most votes of any unranked team in the AP poll and plays at Vanderbilt on Nov. 10.

UCLA 84, No. 5 Arizona 75 (Las Vegas, Nov. 2nd). The first loss by a preseason top-five team, and it came days after RJ Godfrey’s eligibility lawsuit was denied. Arizona made 1 of 13 threes in the first half and trailed 43-29 at the break. Ivan Kharchenkov scored a career-high 38 with 10 rebounds and got Arizona within a point with 3:11 left. UCLA’s bench outscored Arizona’s 17-4 in the first half, which is the story of the matchup: the Bruins have depth and Arizona doesn’t anymore.

No. 4 UConn 85, No. 16 Michigan 77 (Boston, Nov. 6th). The title-game rematch went the other way. Braylon Mullins scored 23 and made 10 of 11 free throws; Silas Demary Jr. added 21 and freshman Colben Landrew 14 off the bench. Michigan gave away too much: 11 turnovers in the first half and a 7-of-28 night from three. Dan Hurley briefly walked onto the floor after a bench technical late in the first half; his team then closed the half on an 11-2 run.

No. 1 Florida 77, No. 14 Miami 67 (Tampa, Nov. 2nd). Thomas Haugh had 19 points, 10 rebounds and no turnovers, and made 4 of 8 threes, which is the one number Florida fans will care about. Rueben Chinyelu had 14 rebounds. Miami got within two early in the second half, then went five minutes without a field goal. The game had two technicals and three fouls upgraded to flagrant.

Memphis 80, No. 18 Iowa State 76 (Sioux Falls, Nov. 2nd). Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid scored 11 of his 26 in the final three minutes. Iowa State tied it at 69 and couldn’t finish. The Cyclones will be without Killyan Toure until January.

Gonzaga 78, Purdue 72 (Las Vegas, Nov. 2nd). Davis Fogle scored 22 for a Gonzaga team that now has Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett eligible. Purdue started 0-2 and is unranked for the first time in 80 weeks.

BYU 94, Ohio State 83 (Salt Lake City, Nov. 2nd). Robert Wright III scored 35. With AJ Dybantsa gone, this is now Wright’s team, and he has played like it.

East Texas A&M over Oklahoma (Nov. 2-4th). Oklahoma was a 28.5-point favorite. ESPN calls it the second-largest upset by point spread in 30 years.

No. 17 Kansas 89, Middle Tennessee 45 (Nov. 6th). Trey Kaufman-Renn scored 17 in 18 minutes and is 11 of 13 through two games. Kansas shot 63%, held Middle Tennessee to 25% and got 46 points from its bench.

Georgetown 86, Maryland 74 (Washington, Nov. 7th). Georgetown made 15 of 30 threes; Maryland made 3 of 20. More in the Maryland section below.

Elsewhere at the top, nobody was tested. Duke beat Army by 34, Illinois beat Fairleigh Dickinson by 75, Texas beat Chicago State by 50 and Michigan State beat Quinnipiac by 37.

Nebraska 67, Providence 58 (Uncasville, Nov. 7th). Pryce Sandfort scored 25, and Nebraska entered the AP poll at No. 25. It was the Huskers’ 24th straight regular-season non-conference win, a program record.

USC 93, Wichita State 86 (Nov. 8th). Rodney Rice scored 32 with 9 assists and Alijah Arenas added 30, the first time two Trojans have each scored 30 in a game since 2015. The rest of the roster scored 31 combined, which is the USC question in one box score.

Kansas loses Melvin Council Jr. (Nov. 9th). The starting guard broke his right foot in practice and is expected back around the start of Big 12 play. More in the rankings below.

Monday’s tune-ups (Nov. 9th). Nobody ranked was tested. UConn beat Wagner 83-41 behind Silas Demary Jr.’s 18 points and six steals. Texas beat Grambling 93-62 as Matas Vokietaitis had 26 and 9. Alabama beat Oakland 109-68, with London Jemison scoring 20. Tennessee beat Radford 70-47 behind Terrence Hill Jr.’s 18, and Miami beat North Florida 89-51 with 16 from Malik Reneau.

Corrections And Updates

What the Oct. 12 preview said that has changed, and what has held up.

• Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey: the preview listed him as waiting on a fifth year. A court has since ruled him eligible, though the NCAA is expected to appeal.
• UConn’s Solo Ball: the preview said he would redshirt. CBS now reports he is expected back at some point this season; ESPN still lists him as redshirting. We’ll treat it as open.
• Texas Tech’s JT Toppin: the preview said only that he wasn’t expected to start the season. The target is now mid-December to around Christmas.
• Iowa State’s Killyan Toure: the shoulder injury will keep him out until January.
• Illinois’s David Mirkovic: out for the first couple of weeks with the foot injury, per CBS.

What has held up: the eligibility thesis, which ran the whole preview, has been the story of the first two weeks. Our chalk Final Four’s top three (Duke, Florida, Illinois) are the top three almost everywhere. And our bet on Houston over the polls is now the consensus of both models.

Top 20 Power Rankings

Records through Nov. 9. “Move” is the change from our Oct. 12 preseason Top 20.

1. Duke (2-0, up 1). The move to No. 1 isn’t about anything Florida did wrong. It’s that every measure we trust now points the same way. Duke is first in KenPom and Torvik, first in the Bilas Index, and the betting favorite. The rating KenPom gave Duke in the preseason was the highest in the system’s history, and two games in it has gone up. The roster is the reason: John Blackwell, Patrick Ngongba II, Dame Sarr and Caleb Foster back or arriving, Cameron Williams off the bench, and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who at 17 already looks like a starter on a title team. Jon Scheyer’s two previous teams were great in November and lost late in March. This one is deeper than both. Ngongba scored 28 against Coastal Carolina. Michigan State on Tuesday and Illinois next week will show how much the depth matters against good teams.

2. Florida (2-0, down 1). Nothing went wrong in Tampa. Thomas Haugh was the best player on the floor against Miami, Rueben Chinyelu had 14 rebounds and the Gators held a feisty in-state opponent without a field goal for five minutes when it mattered. They are second because Duke is first, and they get the head-to-head answer at home on Dec. 1. The question we raised in October still stands: Florida shot 31.2% from three last season, and Haugh’s 4-of-8 night is one game.

3. Illinois (2-0, no change). A 120-point game against Fairleigh Dickinson proves only that the offense works when it’s supposed to. It does point to something, though: Illinois is first in KenPom’s offensive ratings without David Mirkovic, its best player, who is still working back from foot surgery, and without sharpshooting wing Jake Davis. The 232 points in two games are a Big Ten record. Stefan Vaaks and Quentin Coleman have to hold up in the backcourt until he returns. The road trips to Texas Tech (Nov. 10) and Duke (Nov. 17) are where we’ll learn how much. So far, freshman Quentin Coleman is shooting 85% on twos and Stojakovic has 45 points in 24 minutes.

4. Kansas (2-0, up 9). The biggest climber in our top 20, and the reason is three court orders. Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. are two starters back for a fifth year, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a sixth-year Big Ten forward who has missed two shots in two games. Put them around Tyran Stokes and Kansas has the experience Bill Self has lacked the past three seasons, plus the No. 1 recruit. Torvik has the Jayhawks second in the country. Then came the first setback that had nothing to do with a courtroom: Council broke the fifth metatarsal in his right foot in practice on Nov. 9, needs surgery, and Self hopes to have him back around the start of Big 12 play. Council started both games and averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 assists last season. CBS expects Kansas to go bigger without him, with Keanu Dawes, Stokes and Kaufman-Renn together. Kansas holds at fourth because of what the rest of the roster has shown, but the margin is thinner. The other asterisk hasn’t gone away: if any of the remaining court orders is reversed, Kansas drops faster than anyone else on this list. Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday is the first look at the bigger lineup.

5. Houston (2-0, up 3). We had Houston eighth in October, when CBS had the Cougars 14th and ESPN 18th, and the models have moved our way: KenPom third, Torvik sixth. The defense is the No. 1 unit in KenPom again, with Joseph Tugler and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie inside. Dedan Thomas Jr. had 16 in his debut. The offense will decide whether this is a top-two seed, as it does every year under Kelvin Sampson.

6. UConn (3-0, down 1). The win over Michigan was the most impressive result by any of the title contenders: a neutral-floor win over the defending champion, with Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. combining for 44 points and a freshman, Colben Landrew, adding 14. We moved UConn down a spot only because Kansas and Houston moved past. KenPom has the Huskies ninth and Torvik eighth, lower than we do. Monday’s 83-41 win over Wagner, with Demary scoring 18 and adding six steals, was a tune-up for Ohio State on Friday. Dan Hurley’s March record is why we don’t follow them there.

7. Virginia (3-0, no change). The Cavaliers answered the question we asked of them. They beat Arkansas 91-72 in Washington, made 12 threes, led by 27 and won with the four returners who scored 69 of 97 against Northeastern. Thijs De Ridder had 16 and 10. CBS’s Gary Parrish notes that Ryan Odom built this roster without a top-30 payroll, by keeping his best players rather than buying new ones. The AP has Virginia sixth and Torvik has them fourth; KenPom, 16th before the Arkansas game, has since moved them up to 10th. Johann Grunloh is playing on an injured right ankle. Bucknell is Tuesday, then a trip to College Park on Friday.

8. Michigan State (2-0, down 2). Jeremy Fears Jr. had 13 points and 11 assists in the opener and is on pace to lead the country in assists again. Michigan State is sixth in KenPom and has the best point guard in the country. The question is still the center position, with Anton Bonke replacing Carson Cooper. Duke on Nov. 10 and at Tennessee on Nov. 17 will answer it quickly. Freshman Jasiah Jervis scored 16 against Toledo.

9. Texas (3-0, no change). Matas Vokietaitis scored 22 in the opener and 26 against Grambling on Monday, and looks like an All-SEC center. The models split hard on Texas: eighth in KenPom, 18th in Torvik. We’re closer to KenPom, because the talent is undeniable, but a roster this new still has to show it can defend together. Mikey Lewis is still out with a foot injury.

10. Arizona (1-1, down 6). In October we wrote that Arizona’s title case rested on one ruling for one power forward. The ruling went against RJ Godfrey, and the loss to UCLA showed why it mattered. Arizona was 1-of-13 from three in the first half and had almost no bench. Ivan Kharchenkov’s 38 points are a reason not to drop the Wildcats further, and Torvik still has them seventh. But the November schedule doesn’t wait: at Auburn, UConn at home, then Maui.

11. Gonzaga (2-0, up 8). The biggest riser outside Kansas. In October, three Gonzaga guards were waiting on courts; Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett are now eligible. The frontcourt of Braden Huff and Massamba Diop was always the strength, and Davis Fogle scored 22 against Purdue. KenPom has the Zags 11th and Torvik ninth.

12. Louisville (2-0, down 2). Flory Bidunga had 16 and 9 against Chattanooga and looks like the best interior defender in the ACC. Seth Trimble is still waiting on a ruling. The two models disagree by seven spots: Torvik 11th, KenPom 18th. We’ll learn plenty on Dec. 1 against Texas and Dec. 12 at Kentucky.

13. Vanderbilt (2-0, new). We left Vanderbilt out in October. KenPom has the Commodores seventh, the biggest gap between any model and the polls. Tyler Tanner had 20 and 6 in a 46-point opener, and the transfer group of Ace Glass, Bangot Dak and Berke Buyuktuncel has fit around him. The schedule ahead is a good test of whether the rating is real: Memphis, at Ohio State, at Notre Dame and at Cal.

14. Iowa State (1-1, up 4). The loss to Memphis was close, on a neutral floor, without Killyan Toure, and the models still have the Cyclones 14th (KenPom) and 12th (Torvik). Tamin Lipsey is playing under a ruling the NCAA is expected to appeal. Iowa State’s defense is eighth in KenPom.

15. Nebraska (2-0, new). We listed Nebraska as a team we liked better than the projections in October. KenPom has the Huskers 15th and Torvik 13th. Pryce Sandfort opened with 20. The defense was supposed to drop off after losing four of its best defenders; KenPom has it ninth so far.

16. Texas Tech (2-0, no change). Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams are eligible, and Jamichael Stillwell has since been cleared to return under a temporary restraining order from a Lubbock judge. Atwell’s trial isn’t until June, so he likely plays the whole season. Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn give the Red Raiders scoring until JT Toppin returns, targeted for mid-December. If Toppin is himself by January, this ranking is too low.

17. Tennessee (2-0, down 6). The biggest faller still in our 20. Tennessee lost exhibitions to Xavier by 16 and Duke by 39, and Bilas left the Vols out of his 64 entirely. They have since beaten Wofford 90-59 and Radford 70-47, with Terrence Hill Jr. scoring 18 on Monday, and the models have them 23rd (KenPom) and 19th (Torvik). Rick Barnes built this roster for offense. The question is whether he gave up too much defense to get it. Michigan State visits Nov. 17, and Maryland waits in Las Vegas a week later.

18. Alabama (3-0, up 2). KenPom’s fifth-best offense at the fastest pace in the country, which is exactly what an Alabama team under Nate Oats looks like. Aden Holloway was cleared to return Nov. 9 after sitting out the first two games. Drew Fielder had 15 in the opener, and Amari Allen had 16 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists against Arkansas State, the fourth triple-double in program history. On Monday, London Jemison scored 20 in a 109-68 win over Oakland.

19. UCLA (2-0, new). The best win in the country so far. UCLA beat Arizona on a neutral floor with its bench and with Trent Perry’s 21. Mick Cronin’s teams usually defend and rarely shoot; this one has shooters. Then Nikola Kusturica, 17 years old, scored 29 against North Florida. The AP jumped UCLA 13 spots to ninth. KenPom has them 16th, and we’re more cautious still: one great win is one great win.

20. Arkansas (1-1, down 6). The loss to Virginia was a 19-point beating on a neutral floor, and Arkansas has now lost four straight to AP top-10 teams. Jordan Smith Jr. was 8-of-17. Jeremiah Wilkinson scored 23 in the opener and the freshmen have the talent to grow into this. But Bilas had Arkansas eighth, Torvik has them 27th and KenPom 28th, and after Sunday we’re much closer to Torvik. Michigan State on Thanksgiving in Detroit is the next real test.

Next five: Miami (2-1, Torvik 16th), Michigan (1-1), BYU (Robert Wright III scored 35 vs. Ohio State), St. John’s and Kentucky.

Who fell out: Michigan (12th in October), St. John’s (15th) and Miami (17th). Michigan’s frontcourt rebuild looks exactly as hard as it sounded, and KenPom has the Wolverines 30th. St. John’s has the talent, and both models moved the Red Storm up after a 104-65 win over Iona: KenPom to 19th, Torvik from 31st to 14th. They’re the first team we’d add back. But they led Monmouth by only 12 with nine minutes left.

The Outside Check

AP and Coaches are the Nov. 9 polls; CBS is its daily Top 25 And 1 from Nov. 10; KenPom and Torvik are through Nov. 9; Bilas is his Nov. 5 Index.

The top three are settled: every system has Duke, Florida and Illinois in its top four. Below that, three gaps stand out.

Kansas and Houston are better than the polls think. The AP has Kansas 15th; both models have the Jayhawks top five. The AP has Houston eighth and CBS 12th; KenPom has the Cougars third. Melvin Council Jr.’s broken foot gives the polls a fair reason to hold back on Kansas. We still side with the models on both.

The polls like UCLA and Tennessee more than anyone else does. The AP put UCLA ninth after the Arizona win; we have the Bruins 19th and Torvik has them 17th. The coaches have Tennessee ninth, the AP 11th; KenPom has the Vols 23rd and Bilas left them out entirely. Vanderbilt is the reverse: KenPom seventh, AP 22nd.

Virginia settled its argument; Texas hasn’t. Before Sunday, Virginia was sixth in Torvik and 16th in KenPom. After beating Arkansas by 19, the AP and coaches both have the Cavaliers sixth, KenPom has moved them up to 10th and Torvik to fourth. Texas is still eighth in KenPom and 18th in Torvik, and its first possible game against a ranked team is UCLA in San Diego on Nov. 27.

Best Vs. Most Accomplished

The power rankings answer who would win on a neutral floor. This answers a different question: who has actually beaten somebody. Two weeks in, those are almost entirely different lists.

Opponent and team ranks are KenPom through Nov. 9.

Only three of KenPom’s top 10 have beaten a top-50 team, and none has beaten a top-10 team. Duke, Houston, Illinois and Kansas are ranked on talent and margin against weak opponents. That changes fast: Duke plays Michigan State on Nov. 10 and Illinois on Nov. 17.

The Bracket

We’re projecting forward from two games of evidence and four weeks of eligibility news. That is thin, so these lean on the models and the rosters more than the results.

Projected No. 1 seeds: Duke, Florida, Illinois and Kansas. Three are holdovers from our preseason Final Four. Kansas replaces Arizona.

ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology agrees on three of the four. It has UConn on the top line instead of Kansas, which it puts on the 2-line with Virginia, Michigan State and Houston. Its bids by league: SEC 12, Big 12 11, Big Ten 11, ACC 7, Big East 5.

Final Four odds (ours):

Our top 20 combine for about 2.4 of the four spots; the rest belongs to the field.

Our Final Four, revised: Duke, Florida, Illinois, Kansas. In October we picked Arizona for the fourth spot. The Godfrey ruling is the reason for the change, not the UCLA loss.

Five Things We’ve Learned

1. Duke has the best team, and the numbers say so loudly. KenPom’s preseason rating for Duke was the highest in the system’s history, and two games in it has gone up, to +34.84. The Blue Devils beat Army by 34 with three projected top-17 picks on the roster and a 17-year-old who may go first in 2028. Florida is still No. 1 in both polls, but the betting market has flipped to Duke. The Dec. 1 game in Gainesville decides the argument, but Michigan State on Tuesday and Illinois next week come first.

2. Kansas is the team the eligibility rulings built. In August the Jayhawks weren’t a top-20 team. Then judges cleared Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., and then Kaufman-Renn arrived from Purdue with a sixth year. White scored 22 in the opener, Kaufman-Renn has missed twice in two games, and Tyran Stokes hasn’t needed to carry anything. The risk is the same thing that built the team: all three are playing under court orders that can be reversed. And the first loss came from somewhere else entirely, when Council broke his foot in practice on Nov. 9.

3. Arizona is the team the rulings broke. Our preseason case for Arizona said its title chances “rest on one ruling for one power forward.” The ruling went the wrong way. Without Godfrey, Arizona is thin up front and short on shooting. Kharchenkov’s 38 against UCLA was spectacular and still wasn’t enough. The defense is real, and Tommy Lloyd is 148-36. But Arizona’s draw from here (at Auburn, UConn at home, Maui, St. John’s at Madison Square Garden) leaves little room to sort it out.

4. The Michigan rebuild is exactly as hard as it looked. The defending champion lost the title-game rematch to UConn 85-77, shot 7-of-28 from three and turned it over 11 times in the first half. Elliot Cadeau fouled out with eight points. J.P. Estrella (19 and 9) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (18) were good, and Gayle is playing on an injunction. KenPom has Michigan 30th. Mike Boynton’s contract requires two of four benchmarks for a second year, including 24 regular-season wins or a top-four Big Ten finish. Neither looks likely from here.

5. The middle of the Big Ten is better than the polls think. Nebraska is 15th in KenPom and 13th in Torvik. UCLA beat Arizona. Indiana is 3-0 and 29th in Torvik after rebuilding with high-major transfers. Meanwhile Purdue is 1-2. The Big Ten looked like three contenders and a crowd. It now looks like three contenders, a strong second tier of Nebraska and UCLA, and a crowd that is deeper than expected. That matters for Maryland, which plays all of them.

The Eligibility Docket

The rulings that have changed rosters since the season began. Most of these players are eligible under temporary orders, and the NCAA is expected to appeal at least one of them.

Still waiting: Louisville’s Seth Trimble, Tennessee’s Jalen Washington, BYU’s Jaxon Kohler and Saint Louis’s Robbie Avila. In Congress, the Protect College Sports Act has passed the Senate and needs only the House.

The fair read is that the players are winning in the short run. The open question is what happens when the first temporary order is reversed in January, and a ranked team loses a starter mid-season.

Conference Races

Regular-season title odds, ours, with the October preview figure in parentheses. Each league sums to 100.

The remainder of each league goes to the rest of the field.

Conference Overviews

Team counts are from KenPom’s ratings through Nov. 9. Bid projections are from ESPN’s first bracket of the preseason and its Nov. 10 update, both assuming the new 76-team field.

SEC. The deepest league by every measure we have. Eleven SEC teams are in KenPom’s top 30, as many as the Big Ten and Big 12 combined at that level. Florida is the clear favorite, but the shape behind it has changed since October. Vanderbilt (KenPom seventh) and Alabama (12th) have looked like the second tier, while Tennessee, picked in the top four by most preseason panels, has looked like a bubble-to-safe team after its exhibitions. Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri and LSU are all in KenPom’s top 30. Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Georgia are in the top 60. The one sour note: Oklahoma lost to East Texas A&M as a 28.5-point favorite and has slipped to 65th. Twelve bids still looks right, and 13 is possible. ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has 12.

Big Ten. Fourteen teams in KenPom’s top 60, tied with the SEC, but built differently. The top three (Illinois, Michigan State and a rising Nebraska) are stronger than the SEC’s second tier. Then comes a large middle: UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin, all between 16th and 51st. Oregon is 58th and Maryland 59th, which puts both at the bottom of that middle group. For Maryland, that’s the problem in one line: in an 18-team league where 14 teams rate inside KenPom’s top 60, a 10-10 conference record might not stand out. Purdue’s 1-2 start is the early surprise; Matt Painter has missed the tournament four times in 22 seasons.

Big 12. The race changed more than any other in two weeks. In October, Arizona was a unanimous pick to win the league. Now Houston and Kansas are the top two Big 12 teams in both models, and Arizona is third, without RJ Godfrey. Iowa State (14th in KenPom) and Texas Tech (17th) are the next tier, and BYU (21st) has Robert Wright III playing like an All-American. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU fill out a deep middle. The league office’s goal of ten bids looks realistic, and ESPN’s latest bracketology already has 11, with Oklahoma State among its last four in. Keeping 11 depends on how many of the league’s fifth-year players keep their injunctions.

ACC. Duke and then everyone else, as expected. KenPom has four ACC teams in its top 30: Duke, Virginia, Louisville and Miami. Behind them, North Carolina (45th), Virginia Tech (48th) and Florida State (54th) are bubble teams in November. The ACC’s bid count will depend on the SEC/ACC Challenge on Dec. 1-2, where Duke at Florida, Texas at Louisville, Kentucky at Virginia and Alabama at Miami are the headliners. Seven bids is the ceiling unless the second tier wins some of those. ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has exactly seven, with NC State and Clemson among its last four in and Virginia Tech and Florida State just outside.

Big East. Two programs, as SB Nation’s Mike Rutherford said in the preseason. UConn beat the defending champion. St. John’s needed a late burst to put away Monmouth, then beat Iona 104-65 and has climbed to 19th in KenPom. Marquette (26th) is the early climber after a 12-20 season, and Villanova lost its opener in Rome. Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, Providence and DePaul are all in KenPom’s top 60, but five bids looks likelier than seven. ESPN’s latest bracketology has five, with Xavier and Providence among its first four out.

Elsewhere. Gonzaga is the only non-power team in KenPom’s top 40, 11th overall in its first Pac-12 season. Utah State (46th) and Boise State (53rd) give the new Pac-12 a chance at three bids. Saint Louis (44th) and VCU (56th) lead the Atlantic 10, and Grand Canyon (50th) is the new Mountain West’s best team. ESPN’s latest bracketology gives each of those three leagues two bids, with VCU among its last four in. High Point is 3-0 and 69th, the best team in a traditional one-bid league.

Player Of The Year Watch

The preseason consensus settled on Jeremy Fears Jr.: CBS’s preseason Player of the Year, and the pick of three of ESPN’s four writers. We had Thomas Haugh first. Neither has given anyone a reason to switch yet.

Watch list: Robert Wright III (35 vs. Ohio State), Ivan Kharchenkov (38 vs. UCLA), Keyshawn Hall (26 in his debut) and Pharrel Payne (28 at Georgetown). JT Toppin is targeting mid-December. David Mirkovic is still out with a foot injury.

Newcomers: Who Has Hit

Transfers

Freshmen

Also: Kansas’s Tyran Stokes had 27 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists against Duke in an exhibition, the performance that made him the early favorite to go first in the 2027 draft. UCLA’s Nikola Kusturica, 17, scored 29 against North Florida. Louisville’s Obinna Ekezie Jr. had 20 and 13 against Morehead State. Arkansas’s Jordan Smith Jr., the No. 2 recruit in the class, went 8-of-17 in the loss to Virginia.

Maryland

Record: 1-1. Beat Bucknell 96-67; lost at Georgetown 86-74.

Ratings: KenPom 59th (46th offense, 82nd defense), down from 53rd in the preseason and 57th last week. Torvik 49th (31st offense, 78th defense), up from 51st last week but down from 38th in the preseason.

The first two games showed both halves of what this roster was built to be. The good half is the glass. Maryland outrebounded Bucknell 54-22, including 28-6 on the offensive end, and Torvik has the Terps second in the country in offensive rebounding. Pharrel Payne looks fully healthy: 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting and 8-of-8 at the line at Georgetown.

The bad half is the three-point line, on both ends. Maryland is 10-of-48 from three (20.8%). Opponents are 27-of-61 (44.3%). Georgetown made 15 of 30. DJ Wagner is 0-of-8 and Bishop Boswell 1-of-7, while Mike McNair Jr., who shot 44.4% from three last season, has taken four threes in 42 minutes. Some of that regresses on its own. The closeouts don’t fix themselves.

The projection: We started at 21-11 and 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed. We’re holding there for now, though ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has Maryland among its Next Four Out, just outside the field. Two games is too few to move off a full-season projection, but the early defense supports the models’ lower view. Virginia on Friday and Tennessee in Las Vegas will tell us whether to move.

Friday vs. Virginia: The Cavaliers come to College Park off a 19-point win over Arkansas in which they made 12 threes. That is the matchup problem in one number, because Maryland’s opponents are shooting 44.3% from three. ESPN’s predictor gave Virginia a 52.8% chance before the Arkansas game. The keys are the ones from our two-games-in piece: guard the arc, get Payne touches, find shots for McNair, and start with the intensity that was missing at Georgetown. Johann Grunloh is playing on an injured right ankle, which should give Payne and Buljan room inside. A home win over a top-10 team is the résumé line Maryland needs most in November.

What’s next: After Virginia, the Players Era in Las Vegas: Tennessee on Nov. 24, Iowa State or San Diego State on Nov. 26, and a third game Nov. 27. December opens at Ohio State (Dec. 6) and home against Michigan State (Dec. 9), with South Carolina in Baltimore on Dec. 19. A split against Virginia and Tennessee would keep the projection on track. Going 0-2 would leave the Terps chasing their non-conference résumé.

Around The State

Records and KenPom ranks through Nov. 9, in KenPom order.

The Board: Nov. 10th To Dec. 2nd

It starts Tuesday, the best night of the young season, and the stretch that follows is the busiest of the non-conference season: two Players Era events, Maui, Atlantis and the SEC/ACC Challenge.

Tuesday’s lines are CBS Sports’ as of Nov. 10; rankings are the AP’s. Later games have no posted line yet, so we’ll grade those straight up. Maryland in bold.

Predictions

Florida over Florida State, but Florida State covers +10. Florida played what CBS called a C+ game against Miami and still won by 10. On the road against freshman center Marcis Ponder, in a building that will be loud, the Gators should win by less. What it means: a road win over an ACC team, and not much more.

Duke over Michigan State, and Duke covers -6.5. Duke can play ten deep, and its bigs are the best group in the country against a Michigan State team still sorting out its center spot. Fears will have to be spectacular. What it means: a comfortable Duke win settles the No. 1 argument for us, and probably for the polls.

Vanderbilt over Memphis, and Vanderbilt covers -15. Memphis has beaten Iowa State and VCU behind Jayden Reid, but it is without big man Nemanja Popovic, and Vanderbilt has three good perimeter defenders to throw at Reid. What it means: a Vanderbilt rout would back up KenPom’s seventh-place rating.

Texas Tech over Illinois. Illinois is without Mirkovic and Jake Davis and is leaning on four freshmen. Texas Tech gets Jamichael Stillwell back, has Donovan Atwell (46% from three last season) and is 25-0 in non-conference home games under Grant McCasland. What it means: the first real road test for Illinois’s young backcourt, and our first chance to be wrong about the No. 3 team.

Kansas over Kentucky, but Kentucky covers +4.5. Without Council, Kansas will go big and win the glass. Kentucky has the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic and the length to keep it close. What it means: a Kansas win without its starting point guard would back up our No. 4 ranking.

Virginia over Maryland. More in the Maryland section. Virginia’s shooting against Maryland’s perimeter defense is the matchup, and so far it favors the Cavaliers. What it means: a Maryland win would be the best non-conference résumé line of the Buzz Williams era.

Arizona over Auburn. Motiejus Krivas against a rebuilt Auburn frontcourt that struggled to finish at the rim last season. What it means: Arizona needs road wins to stop the slide that started with UCLA.

Duke over Illinois. At Cameron, with Mirkovic likely still working back. What it means: if Duke wins this and the Champions Classic, it goes to Las Vegas as the clear No. 1.

Michigan State over Tennessee. Tennessee has won 45 straight home non-conference games, so this is a pick against a streak. But Fears against a backcourt that gave up 103 at Duke is the matchup we trust. What it means: a Tennessee loss would say the exhibitions weren’t noise.

Arizona over UConn. McKale Center, and an Arizona team that should have its rotation sorted by then. The closest call of the mid-November games. What it means: a home win over a top-five team would put Arizona back in the conversation.

Tennessee over Maryland. Both models have Tennessee about 35 spots higher, and Maryland has given up 44% from three. If the Terps’ shooting regresses toward normal, this is a coin flip. What it means: a Maryland win would be the first real résumé line for a bubble team.

Duke over UConn. Duke’s size against a UConn frontcourt that lost Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. The Huskies have the guards to keep it close. What it means: a Duke win, with Michigan State and Illinois already played, would make the Blue Devils the clear No. 1 entering Gainesville.

Michigan State over Arkansas. Fears against freshman Jordan Smith Jr. What it means: a win nine days after Tennessee would give Michigan State the best November résumé in the Big Ten.

Kansas over Villanova. Allen Fieldhouse, and a Villanova team that lost its opener. What it means: nothing new for Kansas. A Villanova win would put the Wildcats back in the Big East’s top tier.

Florida over Duke. The closest call on the board. Duke is the better team by a hair in both models; Florida is at home, with the frontcourt to make Duke’s bigs work. What it means: the winner leaves the first week of December as the No. 1 overall seed in most projections.

Louisville over Texas. Home floor, and Flory Bidunga against a Texas front line still finding its rotation. Mikey Lewis may be back for Texas by then. What it means: the first real test of the Cardinals’ $20 million roster.

Virginia over Kentucky. Torvik’s view of Virginia against a Kentucky team that shoots well and defends less. What it means: a Kentucky loss would add to Mark Pope’s pressure in year three.

Miami over Alabama. Home court in a game the models rate close to even. Alabama plays the fastest pace in the country; Miami will have to keep up. What it means: Miami needs a top-25 win after losing to Florida.

The tally: This is the first board: 18 picks straight up, and five against the spread where a line was posted. We’ll grade every one in the next update and keep a running record for the season.

Sources: KenPom and Torvik ratings through Nov. 9; AP and Coaches polls (Nov. 9); CBS Sports’ Top 25 And 1 (Nov. 10), Champions Classic NBA Draft guide and Nov. 10 picks and lines; CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 (Nov. 5) and Top 100 And 1 teams; the Bilas Index (ESPN, Nov. 5); ESPN’s bracketology (Nov. 10) and Champions Classic preview; ESPN game recaps and its Mike Boynton feature; athletics department recaps from Towson, UMBC and Morgan State; ESPN team schedules; Field Level Media. All rankings, percentages and projections are our own.

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We entered the season with Oklahoma City and San Antonio as the two best teams in the league, and that part has held. Nearly everything beneath them has moved. Here is where things stand, and where we think they are headed.

Records and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) are as of the evening of Nov. 9. Other advanced numbers are from NBA.com through Nov. 7. Philadelphia (9-2) and Boston (8-2) meet Tuesday night in Philadelphia, the first game for Jaylen Brown and Paul George against their old teams.

Power Rankings

These are a neutral-floor judgment. Title odds fold in health and the path through each conference. “Pre.” is each team’s rank in our preseason preview.

These sum to roughly 96%. Out of the top 16 since the preseason: Indiana, Miami and Orlando, all injured or struggling.

Nos. 17-30: 17. Dallas, 18. Miami, 19. Orlando, 20. Indiana, 21. Phoenix, 22. Washington, 23. New Orleans, 24. Charlotte, 25. Utah, 26. LA Clippers, 27. Chicago, 28. Brooklyn, 29. Milwaukee, 30. Sacramento.

The Injury Wave

The biggest story of the first three weeks isn’t a team. It’s the injury report.

• Oklahoma City: Jalen Williams (ankle and fibula), Cason Wallace (labrum) and Chet Holmgren (knee) are out long-term. Alex Caruso has a sprained ankle. That’s four All-Defensive players out at once.
• Minnesota: Anthony Edwards is out at least two months after a knee procedure, a day after scoring 47 in Cleveland.
• Utah: Jaren Jackson Jr. tore his MCL, and Lauri Markkanen sprained his shooting wrist.
• Portland: Ja Morant is out at least a month with a hamstring injury.
• Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton is out at least two weeks with a hamstring injury, and Ivica Zubac has been out. The Pacers played one game with only six available players.
• Toronto: Kawhi Leonard has missed time with left knee swelling.
• Orlando: Paolo Banchero (ankle) and Jalen Suggs (knee) are out.
• Detroit: Jalen Duren played 38 minutes before a hamstring injury.

The Thunder show how much this changes the picture. In the first three games without Williams, Wallace and Holmgren, they allowed 122.1 points per 100 possessions, one of their worst stretches in three years. They led the league in points off turnovers in each of the last three seasons; over a four-game stretch they averaged 11.8, third-worst in the league. Then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 43 with a go-ahead 3 in Cleveland, and they haven’t lost since. They are 8-2 and still first in BPI’s defensive rating.

The worry is the load on Gilgeous-Alexander. His true shooting percentage of 55.2% would be the lowest of his career, with career lows in paint shooting and free throw rate. Oklahoma City can survive November this way. Whether it can win in May depends on how many of those four come back, and how well.

Oklahoma City has already started patching the roster. On Monday it made the season’s first trade, getting wing Nique Clifford from Sacramento for two second-round picks. Clifford was the 24th pick in 2025, a selection the Kings traded into from the Thunder on draft night. He averaged just under 13 points, five rebounds and four assists over the final two months of last season, then played only 50 minutes in Sacramento’s first eight games this season. CBS gave the Thunder an A-minus: a 6-foot-8 wing with several years of cheap control, bought with picks they won’t miss. It’s the same kind of move that brought them Jared McCain last February.

The MVP Race

Luka Doncic has made this his race for now. He’s averaging 40.1 points, scored 53 against Portland, and has seven straight games of 35 or more. Only Chamberlain has averaged 40 through the first nine games of a season. Doncic is taking 13.7 3s a game and making 41.9%. The Lakers have outscored opponents by 140 points with him on the floor and been outscored by 63 without him. Giannis Antetokounmpo wondered aloud whether Doncic was the best scorer ever.

Victor Wembanyama opened 1-for-13 against the Thunder and has been dominant since: 29.1 points a game and career highs of 52 points and 24 rebounds in a one-point win over Dallas. He leads the league in alley-oops at 3.8 a game, more than twice anyone else, and the Spurs are first in BPI. In the preseason GM survey, 77% picked him for MVP.

Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an injured team on his least efficient shooting. Jayson Tatum is back at an All-NBA level. Stephen Curry, at 38, is averaging 31.3 points and is 40-for-40 from the line. Tyrese Maxey leads the league in fourth-quarter scoring. Nikola Jokic has started slowly; CBS has tied his 3-point decline to a wrist injury late last season.

Our projection: 1. Doncic, 2. Wembanyama, 3. Gilgeous-Alexander, 4. Tatum, 5. Maxey. Doncic’s numbers will come down, and Wembanyama has the better team case. If the Spurs finish first and Doncic misses time, this flips.

The Rookie Race

The draft’s top picks haven’t led the race. Golden State’s Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick and a 24-year-old rookie, scored 26, 26, 31 and 37 points in a four-game stretch. “Changes everything,” Steve Kerr said.

Cameron Boozer has a triple-double for a winning Memphis team. Caleb Wilson had 30 points and 14 rebounds against Washington. Darius Acuff Jr. is taking 23.6 shots a game in Sacramento and has gotten more efficient. AJ Dybantsa missed four games with an ankle injury and has been productive since. Darryn Peterson, the No. 2 pick, has had a hard start on a 1-9 Utah team.

Our projection: 1. Lendeborg, 2. Boozer, 3. Wilson, 4. Dybantsa, 5. Acuff. We picked Peterson in the preseason. He’s sixth today.

The East

Philadelphia (9-2) has the East’s best record, and scouts credit Tyrese Maxey. “It’s Maxey,” one East executive said. “He’s making them go.” LeBron James and Nick Nurse have built a working relationship that executives have noticed, and Anfernee Simons has given the bench scoring. But through Nov. 7 the Sixers were 7-0 in games within five points in the last five minutes, with a net rating of only +2.5 and an offense in the bottom 10. Even at 9-2, they’ve outscored opponents by only 3.1 points a game. Teams that win close games at that rate usually stop. Maxey is also playing nearly 38 minutes a night, second in the league. And with Ariel Hukporti out for the season, Philadelphia is $1.8 million under its hard cap and can’t easily add the backup big scouts say it needs. Tuesday’s game against Boston is the first real test of how the Sixers match up with the East’s other top team.

Boston (8-2) beat Milwaukee by 20 on Sunday and had a +10.3 net rating through Nov. 7. Jayson Tatum is averaging 27.9 points and 8.0 assists, though he’s making only 31.3% of his 3s, and Derrick White is at 32.7%.

The surprise has been Paul George, the return in the Jaylen Brown trade. At 36, he’s averaging 20.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists and a career-high 2.3 steals, fourth in the league. He’s making a career-high 42.5% of his 3s on a team-high 8.1 attempts, and 46% on 5.6 catch-and-shoot attempts a game; among players taking at least five of those, only Stephen Curry has been better. Brown has never shot 40% from 3 in a season. “He’s very hard on himself,” Joe Mazzulla said. “Holds himself to a very high standard.”

George has changed Boston’s defense, too. He’s third in the league in deflections, and the Celtics’ opponent turnover rate of 17.4% ranks sixth; in Mazzulla’s first four seasons, it never topped 13.1%. Add one of the league’s biggest jumps in free throw rate and a paint defense anchored by Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta, and Boston has looked like the East’s most complete team.

Detroit (6-3) has the league’s best defense without much help from Jalen Duren, though it has lost two straight, to Philadelphia and the Lakers. The surprise is the shooting: Cade Cunningham is making a career-high 37% of his 3s, the team is at 38.1%, and Duncan Robinson is second on the team at 17.9 points.

New York (5-4) won at Cleveland on Saturday, the first meeting since last year’s conference finals sweep. The backup center spot, the big offseason question, has been fine: Andre Drummond ranks fourth in the league in offensive rebounding percentage, and the Knicks lead the league in second-chance points. The problem is the half-court offense, 29th in scoring before an offensive rebound. Mikal Bridges is at career lows in scoring and efficiency, and Jalen Brunson has shot poorly after offseason wrist surgery. The Karl-Anthony Towns contract talks remain paused.

Cleveland (5-5) has blown two 15-point leads. The Cavs have been outscored badly with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the floor together (-15.0 per 100 possessions) while their one-big lineups have been excellent, and Mobley is 17-for-27 from 3. Peyton Watson hasn’t fit yet.

Toronto (5-4) is forcing a league-leading 20.9 turnovers a game without Leonard, and Scottie Barnes is averaging 24.4 points. Atlanta (7-4) leads the league in shot quality but has struggled in the paint.

At the bottom of the playoff picture, Miami (4-6) has a bottom-four defense, gives up the most 3s in the league, and players have said publicly they don’t trust each other on the floor. Indiana (3-7) has had its projected starting five together for one game. Orlando (2-7) is without its two best players.

Our East projection: 1. Boston, 2. Detroit, 3. Philadelphia, 4. New York, 5. Cleveland, 6. Toronto. Play-in: Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Indiana.

The West

San Antonio (8-2) started 0-2 and hasn’t lost since. Mitch Johnson started Dylan Harper next to De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle and stuck with it. Castle has moved off the ball, taking 6.3 catch-and-shoot 3s a game, up from 2.9 last season, and the Spurs lead the league with 84% of their 3s coming off the catch.

The Lakers (9-2) lead the league in offense, with an effective field goal percentage of 60.0% that would be the best in NBA history. The defense has been average, and Doncic has been active defensively, but the offense collapses when he sits.

Houston (7-3) was No. 1 in both ESPN’s and NBA.com’s rankings last week, then lost to Minnesota and Phoenix. Fred VanVleet has steadied the offense, and Kevin Durant, at 38, has the best shot quality of his 14 tracked seasons.

Minnesota (8-3) has kept winning without Edwards, including a win over Houston, behind one of the league’s best defenses. The next two months will test it.

Memphis (6-3) started 6-0. All 20 previous teams to do that since 2004 made the playoffs. Then the Grizzlies lost three straight, to New Orleans in overtime, Indiana and Oklahoma City, and BPI ranks them only 20th. Their 3-point shooting won’t hold, but the four starters around Ty Jerome are all on rookie contracts, and the front office holds nine tradable first-round picks. “For where they are in their arc, they’re pretty freakin’ good,” a West coach said.

Portland (6-3) has been +25.2 per 100 possessions with only one of Morant and Damian Lillard on the floor, compared with +5.2 with both. Scoot Henderson has started in Morant’s place, and Jrue Holiday has thrived as a sixth man.

Golden State (7-3) turned an 0-3 start into a seven-game winning streak behind Curry and Lendeborg. Denver (5-3) has Jamal Murray averaging 27.3 points and making more than half his 3s, but its offense fell from first last season to the middle of the league. Dallas (6-4) has Cooper Flagg averaging 25.2 points; only LeBron James, Doncic, Durant and Zion Williamson have averaged that many at 20 or younger.

At the bottom, Utah (1-9) has lost eight straight since losing Jackson and has gone 4-for-21 on clutch shots from Peterson and Keyonte George. Phoenix (3-5) has the league’s worst defense and can’t rebound. The Clippers (2-7) are likely sellers, with Brook Lopez, Kris Dunn, Rui Hachimura, Max Strus and Derrick Jones Jr. all candidates to move.

Our West projection: 1. San Antonio, 2. Oklahoma City, 3. L.A. Lakers, 4. Houston, 5. Minnesota, 6. Denver. Play-in: Golden State, Portland, Memphis, Dallas.

Projected Records

Our projected final records, with each team’s preseason FanDuel win total for reference.

The biggest moves from the preseason market: Golden State (+8.5), Memphis (+10.5), the Lakers (+6.5) and Detroit (+7.5) up; Utah (-9.5), Indiana (-7.5) and Charlotte (-7.5) down. Oklahoma City falls four and a half wins below its line because of the injuries, but still finishes second in the West.

The Wizards

Washington was 4-3 a week ago and is 4-6 now, after losing twice to Trae Young’s old team in Atlanta and once in Oklahoma City. NBA.com noted four of the Wizards’ first six games came against Milwaukee, Chicago and a shorthanded Charlotte, so the start may have been flattering. Through 10 games, Washington is scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions and allowing 113.0, a -4.8 net rating.

The players who matter most have delivered. Anthony Davis is averaging 23.4 points and 9.3 rebounds on 50% shooting, though he has missed two of the 10 games. Kyshawn George has been the second-best player: 18.5 points and 5.2 assists, shooting 49% from the field and 37% from 3. AJ Dybantsa missed the first four games with an ankle injury and is averaging 16.0 points and 5.8 rebounds in six games. He’s getting to the rim and the line, with 4.8 free throw attempts a game, but making only 27.8% of his 3s.

Young’s pass-first approach has carried over from the preseason. He’s averaging 8.9 assists on 12.8 shots a game; his career average is 18.3 shots. The shooting hasn’t followed: 39.8% from the field and 28.6% from 3, with 3.4 turnovers a game. Alex Sarr is making 67.4% of his 2-pointers but only 20.7% of his 3s.

The bigger problem is the whole team’s shooting. The Wizards are making 30.2% of their 3s on 31.5 attempts a game. Add the rebounding, where Washington ranks last in offensive rebounding and near the bottom in defensive rebounding and forced turnovers, and the Wizards have been outshot by at least 10 attempts in four of their first six games. Off the bench, Deandre Ayton is shooting 69% in 15 minutes, and rookie Tre Johnson is scoring 9.6 points on 37% shooting.

Our projection: 32-50, 11th in the East and just outside the play-in, a 15-win improvement on last season. The ceiling is higher if the 3-point shooting gets to league average. The floor depends on Davis staying healthy.

The NBA Cup: Halfway Through Group Play

The fourth NBA Cup is about halfway through group play. Each conference has three five-team groups, and each team plays four group games. The three group winners in each conference advance, along with one wild card: the second-place team with the best group record. The quarterfinals are Dec. 4-5, and new this year, the semifinals on Dec. 8-9 are played at the higher seed’s arena instead of a neutral site. Each player on the winning team gets $514,971.

Point differential is the second tiebreaker, after head-to-head, so margin matters. Overtime points don’t count toward it.

Standings through Nov. 7, per NBA.com.

The defending champions are in trouble. The Knicks won last year’s Cup, beating the Spurs. This year they lost their opener at Philadelphia by five and sit last in East B, with Cleveland and Miami both 1-0. With Indiana, Cleveland and Miami left, New York likely needs to win out.

Boston is in the best position in the East. The Celtics are 2-0 and have outscored opponents by 53 points. They finish at Washington and at home against Atlanta, the only other unbeaten team in the group.

West B may come down to the last game. Minnesota (+32) and Oklahoma City (+31) both have big margins and meet in the group finale. Memphis is 0-1 after a 31-point loss to the Thunder.

Philadelphia’s wild-card case took a hit. The Sixers are 1-1 with a -19 differential after losing in Cleveland by 24.

The Wizards have a chance. Washington is 1-1 with a +9 differential after beating Charlotte and losing in Atlanta. That one win matches the franchise’s total from the first three Cups combined (1-11). The Wizards finish at Chicago and at home against Boston. A win over the Bulls and a split elsewhere in the group would put them in the wild-card conversation.

Games to circle: Cleveland at Miami and Miami at Philadelphia (East B), Golden State at San Antonio (West C), Boston at Washington (East C), and Minnesota at Oklahoma City (West B).

Our Cup Projections

Wild cards: Atlanta in the East, which should finish 3-1 with games at Chicago and home against Charlotte left. Minnesota in the West, whose +32 differential gives it the edge over any 3-1 runner-up.

Quarterfinals: Boston over Atlanta and Detroit over Cleveland in the East. Oklahoma City over Minnesota and San Antonio over Dallas in the West.

Semifinals: Boston over Detroit. San Antonio over Oklahoma City, with the Thunder still short three starters in December.

Final: San Antonio over Boston. The Spurs lost last year’s final to the Knicks; this time Wembanyama is playing at an MVP level and the Spurs are the healthiest contender in the West.

Four Changes the NBA Should Make

1. Play each group’s final games at the same time. On the last group night, teams already know exactly what margin they need, so blowouts get extended and wild cards get decided by who plays last. Soccer fixed this decades ago by starting final group games together. The NBA should tip each group’s last games simultaneously.

2. Cap point differential per game. Margin is the second tiebreaker, which rewards running up the score on bad teams and penalizes overtime games, where the margin counts as zero. Capping each game’s margin at about 15 points would still reward winning big without turning the last five minutes of a blowout into a tiebreaker race.

3. Give the winner something that matters in April. Players like the prize money, but the Cup still means little for the season. A modest competitive reward, such as winning the first regular-season tiebreaker or a guaranteed play-in spot, would make the knockout games feel like they count.

4. Count the final in the record books. Quarterfinals and semifinals count as regular-season games, but the championship game’s stats don’t count anywhere. If the league wants the Cup taken seriously, the stats from its biggest game should count toward career and season records.

Is the NBA Really a Young Man’s Game?

The Ringer’s Kirk Goldsberry argued last week that the league is getting younger because the modern game has become too fast and too punishing for older players. The trend is real. Several of his supporting claims don’t hold up.

His own numbers cut the other way. Players 30 and older were 17.5% of the league last season but played 19.8% of the minutes. Veterans who stay in the league get more minutes per player than younger ones, not fewer.

The roster has changed, too. Every team now carries three two-way players, nearly all of them young, and most players now enter the league at 19 instead of 22. A league that starts its players three years younger will look younger even if nobody ages faster.

Stars aren’t playing more. They’re playing less, and faster. We looked at minutes per game for the top 25 scorers in four seasons:

The drop came after 2008, as rotations deepened and load management took hold. Minutes are down about 11%. Pace is up by roughly the same amount, from 90.3 possessions per game in 1997-98 to 99.5 this season, so the average star plays about the same number of possessions a game as in 1998. What changed is how hard those possessions are: more sprints, more cuts, more stops and starts.

The worst injuries aren’t sparing young players. Players suffer Achilles tears, on average, in their age-28 season. This season’s injury list includes Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Edwards and Jackson, all in their mid-20s. Meanwhile, Durant (38), James (41), Curry (38) and George (36) are all playing well for winning teams.

Our take: It’s a young man’s league by headcount, not by who teams trust when it matters. The game didn’t get too fast for veterans. Depth got good enough, and the second apron got expensive enough, that teams replace them. The fix for injuries probably isn’t fewer minutes; teams have already cut those. It’s managing how intense the minutes are, treating calf strains as warning signs, and paying for depth. The 2006 roster expansion was followed by a 39% drop in games lost to injury.

Quick Hits

• Sacramento is all in on Acuff. Darius Acuff Jr. has the second-highest usage rate for a rookie in NBA history, and the Kings traded Nique Clifford in part because there were no perimeter minutes left for him. CBS gave Sacramento a D for the deal. Acuff is taking 23.6 shots a game to Domantas Sabonis’ 8.6, but Sacramento sources insist the two get along. A Sabonis trade still makes sense for both sides.
• Expect more trades after Dec. 15. About 29% of the league can’t be traded until then because of contracts signed over the summer.
• The bottom is crowded. Seven teams have one or two wins. Under the new lottery rules, the worst records aren’t worth chasing, so watch who tries to climb into the 4-10 range by March.
• Memphis has the assets to add a star. The Grizzlies hold nine tradable first-round picks and project to have major cap space next summer.
• The West owns the East so far. The West was 10-2 in interconference games through the first two weeks.
• Doncic is chasing records. At his current pace he would break Curry’s single-season record of 402 3s and Kobe Bryant’s non-Chamberlain record of 10 50-point games.

Where It’s Headed

Three weeks in, the season’s shape is clearer than its standings. The Spurs and Thunder are the two best teams again, and the Thunder got there with three starters in street clothes. The Sixers are 9-2 on close-game luck. The Lakers are 9-2 on one historic scorer. Boston, which changed less than people think, may be the East’s most complete team.

We entered the season picking Oklahoma City over New York in the Finals. With the Thunder’s injuries and the Knicks’ slow start, our projection today is San Antonio over Boston. The Spurs are healthy, deep, and have the player most likely to be the best on the floor in June. If Oklahoma City is whole by the spring, that changes again.

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Quick Hits

Notre Dame 31, Miami 24. CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns, and Notre Dame led 24-3 early in the third quarter on its way to beating No. 1 Miami in South Bend. Miami was playing its first game without receiver Malachi Toney. Darian Mensah threw three touchdown passes to get the Hurricanes within a touchdown twice. With 3:36 left, Elija Lofton appeared to catch a fourth-down pass in the end zone that would have made it 31-30. Luke Talich knocked the ball away, and the officials ruled it incomplete. Mario Cristobal said he was “beyond upset” about the call. The win also settled last season’s 27-24 Miami win, the game that kept Notre Dame out of the playoff. CBS’s Winners and Losers now has Carr leading the Heisman conversation.

Georgia 42, Ole Miss 7. Last week we called Georgia’s passing game “the open question going into Oxford.” Gunner Stockton answered it efficiently, completing 9 of 15 passes for 186 yards and four touchdowns and running for another score. Georgia led 28-0 at halftime and ran for 295 yards. Ole Miss finished with 252 yards of offense. The loss ended the Rebels’ 16-game home winning streak, and Kirby Smart won in Oxford for the first time in three tries.

Utah 28, BYU 20. Devon Dampier accounted for four touchdowns and 266 yards, and Utah intercepted Bear Bachmeier four times. Two of those came in the end zone in the fourth quarter. BYU led 20-14 at halftime, and Utah shut it out after the break. The win snapped a three-game losing streak in the rivalry. ESPN notes that Morgan Scalley is 10-0 as Utah’s coach, counting last year’s bowl, and is only the sixth FBS coach in 40 years to start a career with 10 straight wins. This also ends the promise we have carried since Week 9: BYU stayed ahead of Utah “until they play on November 7th.” They played, and Utah won.

Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6, and Alabama 31, LSU 13. Tennessee scored 24 straight points in the second half, forced three turnovers and held Kentucky to two field goals in two red-zone trips. Arion Carter had 13 tackles and two sacks. In Baton Rouge, Keelon Russell played through an ankle injury and threw three touchdown passes. LSU went 0 for 4 on fourth down and outgained Alabama 457-285, but scored one touchdown. Lane Kiffin is now 0-6 against Alabama. CBS’s Winners and Losers printed 31-14; the AP recap and ESPN both have 31-13, and we use 31-13. Kentucky lost, so last week’s three-team cycle scenario did not happen.

Texas 34, Missouri 20. Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. The go-ahead score was a pass to Raleek Brown with 5:03 left, and Graceson Littleton’s interception on Missouri’s next drive set up Brown’s clinching run. The AP calls it Texas’s fourth win this season over a top-20 opponent. There were five video reviews, and all five went against Missouri. One ruled a Manning throw that went 14 yards forward a fumble, recovered by Texas for a first down. Texas tied the game three plays later.

Oregon 41, Ohio State 28. Ohio State led 14-0 late in the first quarter. Then Oregon scored 38 straight points, with Dylan Raiola passing for 257 yards and Dierre Hill Jr. running for two touchdowns. Luke Fahey completed 36 of 50 passes for 360 yards in his second start for the injured Julian Sayin. The AP says this is the first time Ohio State has lost two straight since 2011, and the first time it has lost back-to-back games to unranked opponents since October 1992. CBS adds that the Buckeyes last had three regular-season losses in 2011.

UCLA 34, Minnesota 20. Ty Dieffenbach had 303 yards on just eight completions, including two 75-yard fourth-quarter touchdowns to Aidan Mizell on consecutive one-play drives. Minnesota missed two 56-yard field goals, and UCLA scored a touchdown soon after each. The Bruins are 9-0 and 6-0 in the Big Ten. Their last three games are Illinois on Friday, at Michigan and USC.

Around the bubble. Houston beat Cincinnati 31-24 on Re’Shaun Sanford II’s 51-yard run with 5:10 left. Texas Tech held on against West Virginia 53-48, with Tommy Castellanos throwing five touchdown passes in his second start. The Red Raiders have now allowed at least 255 rushing yards in two of their last three games. Iowa won 24-10 at Northwestern and has allowed two touchdowns in three games. Arizona beat TCU 29-28 after recovering an onside kick in the final two minutes. CBS reports that SMU beat Virginia Tech 51-28, Wake Forest beat FCS Merrimack 77-0 without quarterback Gio Lopez, and South Carolina beat Texas A&M for its fourth straight win, though LaNorris Sellers left limping after the clinching touchdown. Per ESPN, Florida lost 23-7 to Oklahoma and now has a losing SEC record. Michigan lost 15-6 at home to Michigan State.

The Group of Six. Boise State played without Maddux Madsen and still won 64-38 at Colorado State. Max Cutforth went 16 of 19 for 317 yards and four touchdowns and ran for a fifth. Dylan Riley had 300 all-purpose yards and is up to 1,241 rushing yards. New Mexico beat Nevada 31-3 in its first game as an AP-ranked team and held the Wolf Pack to minus-9 rushing yards. James Madison won 54-23 at Southern Miss with JC Evans back from his opening-week injury. UTSA lost to FAU, which CBS called a blowout. The standings show Texas State won at Oregon State. Ohio beat Akron 28-20 and is the MAC’s only unbeaten team in league play.

Coaching. Florida State fired Mike Norvell early in the week. Per ESPN, the Seminoles then won at Boston College for their first true road win since November 25th, 2023. Nebraska fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen after a 24-13 loss to Illinois. CBS’s Winners and Losers says the Huskers have lost three straight; the standings and ESPN both show four, after a 5-0 start. Jason Witten called Oklahoma’s offense for the first time, and the Sooners held the ball for nearly 38 minutes. Kyle Whittingham’s Michigan is 5-4, while Scalley’s Utah is 9-0.

Corrections

The committee and margin of victory. In last week’s committee section we wrote that “the committee caps margin at 24 points.” That overstates it. CFP executive director Rich Clark has said that margin of victory is counted up to 24 points in the CFP’s strength-of-schedule data, and only there. In the committee’s discussion, he said, margin is not a hard-and-fast rule, and members look at the whole game. Our two other committee facts from last week check out: the CFP’s August release confirms this was the first of six rankings, and NCAA.com’s 2026 guide lists 13 committee members.

Power Rankings

Georgia (up 1 to No. 1). Georgia has the best set of wins of any one-loss team: at Alabama on October 10th, Florida in Atlanta, and now 42-7 at Ole Miss. Its one loss, 27-24 at home to Auburn, is still the worst loss among the contenders, and we said so all along. But Saturday was the most complete performance we have seen from anyone this season. SP+ agrees: it has Georgia at 31.3, almost seven points clear of No. 2. Missouri comes to Athens on Saturday, then Georgia goes to South Carolina.

Utah (up 3 to No. 2). Utah is 9-0 and now has two good wins, Houston last month and BYU on Saturday. Résumé SP+ has Utah first in the country. The schedule is still the weak point: ESPN had Utah’s strength of schedule 81st entering the week, and SP+ has it 76th. That is why Utah is second, not first. But 9-0 with the BYU win is not a résumé we would put below one-loss teams other than Georgia.

Notre Dame (up 1 to No. 3). This is the win the Irish needed. They beat the committee’s No. 1 team and led by 21 doing it. The remaining schedule is Boston College, SMU and at Syracuse. ESPN notes that the committee marked Notre Dame down for having only one win over a .500 team. Now it has two.

Miami (down 3 to No. 4). A seven-point road loss to a top-five team is the kind of loss that costs a few spots and no more. Miami still has the best chance in the ACC to win the league: 74.1 percent in FPI. Without Toney, though, the offense looked like a different unit. Miami was held scoreless in the first quarter for the first time since last year’s title game. Its best win is now at Wake Forest in September. That is why Indiana and UCLA are close behind.

Indiana (up 1 to No. 5). The Hoosiers were off and move up one spot because Miami lost. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Indiana is 5-1 against opponents at .500 or better. ESPN’s FPI gives Indiana a 78.9 percent chance of beating USC at home on Saturday; the Match-Up Predictor on our board has 78.2. Indiana still has no win over a team in the committee’s top 25. Saturday is its chance to get one.

UCLA (up 1 to No. 6). The Bruins keep winning, and the win at Minnesota counts for more than it looks: Minnesota took Indiana to overtime in Bloomington. UCLA also won at Oregon, and Oregon just beat Ohio State in Columbus. The schedule is still thin. ESPN had UCLA’s strength of schedule 78th; SP+ has it 92nd. Three of its opponents rank 94th or worse in FPI.

Texas (up 1 to No. 7). Texas has four wins over teams in the committee’s top 25: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Tennessee on the road, and now Missouri on the road. That is the most in the country, by CBS’s count. Its two losses, to Oklahoma and Florida, were each by a field goal. The offense still turns the ball over: ESPN counts 14 turnovers, 117th nationally. The defense ranks fourth in SP+.

Tennessee (up 3 to No. 8). The Vols’ 34-6 win over Kentucky is their second statement win, after beating Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville on October 17th. Their losses are to Texas, which is ahead of them, and to South Carolina by three on the road. The committee had Tennessee 13th and Alabama fifth. We do not see it that way. Tennessee won that game by 16 at home, and nothing since has given us a reason to override the result. Both teams won big on Saturday, so the gap between them did not change.

Alabama (up 3 to No. 9). The win at LSU was clean, even though Alabama was outgained by 172 yards. The Tide stopped LSU on all four of its fourth-down tries and intercepted Sam Leavitt at its own 24. Alabama’s losses are to Georgia and Tennessee, both ranked ahead of it. Its wins include Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU and a road win at Mississippi State. Alabama’s remaining games are at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. It will be favored in all three, and ESPN notes that the Iron Bowl is at home.

Texas Tech (holds at No. 10). Texas Tech is 8-1, but beating West Virginia 53-48 at home did not help its case. West Virginia’s defense ranks second-worst in FBS, according to the AP. Texas Tech also has a problem against the run: it has allowed 255 or more rushing yards in two of its last three games. The Red Raiders play neither Utah nor BYU, and they remain the likeliest opponent for Utah in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma State is next.

BYU (down 8 to No. 11). The loss at Utah was close, on the road, and in a rivalry game, so it is not a bad loss. But it is BYU’s second loss in three weeks, after the double-overtime loss at UCF, and four interceptions decided it. BYU’s win over Notre Dame looks better after Saturday, which is why BYU is still ahead of every other two-loss team except the three SEC teams with stronger wins. BYU’s remaining games are Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati.

Wake Forest (up 4 to No. 12). Wake Forest is 8-1, and its only loss is to Miami. Beating Merrimack 77-0 told us nothing. What we learn from comes Saturday at SMU, which is 7-2 and just scored 51 on Virginia Tech. Gio Lopez had an extra week to heal; whether he plays is the question to watch.

Houston (up 5 to No. 13). Houston beat Cincinnati, and the teams around it lost. Both of Houston’s losses were one-score road losses, at Utah and at Texas Tech. Its best win is Oklahoma State. Houston goes to Colorado on Friday.

USC (up 3 to No. 14). USC was off, and every team that had been around it lost. It goes to Indiana on Saturday, and last week we said what that game means for USC: “If USC wins at Indiana on November 14th, this paragraph changes.” The Ohio State paragraph changed this week anyway (see below).

Kentucky (down 2 to No. 15). Kentucky’s two losses are both by 28 points or more: 45-17 at home to Alabama and 34-6 at Tennessee. Its good wins, LSU and South Carolina, both came in overtime. ESPN had Kentucky second in its strength-of-record metric entering the week, which helps explain why the committee ranked it sixth. We had Kentucky 13th then, and we have it lower now. It has three games left: Florida at home, at Missouri and Louisville.

Oregon (new at No. 16). Oregon has won two straight against ranked teams, Northwestern and then Ohio State in Columbus. It also has wins over USC and Boise State. Oregon is 6-3, and its loss to UCLA came at home. The question of Oregon against USC gets its own paragraph below.

Iowa (new at No. 17). Iowa has wins over Wisconsin (30-0), Michigan and now Northwestern on the road. Its losses are to Minnesota and to Ohio State. The defense ranks fifth in SP+ and has allowed two touchdowns in three games.

South Carolina (new at No. 18). The Gamecocks started 0-3 in the SEC, losing to Mississippi State, Alabama and Kentucky. They have won four straight since, including Florida and Tennessee, and beat Texas A&M on Saturday. Sellers’s health after he limped off is the question going to Arkansas.

Boise State (up 1 to No. 19). The Broncos have won eight straight since losing their opener at Oregon by seven. Saturday answered last week’s quarterback question, at least against a defense that came in allowing 42.4 points a game, the most in FBS. Boise’s next game, Oregon State at home, is the one CBS calls a must-win to stay in front of the Group of Six.

Ohio State (down 11 to No. 20). Last week we said, “If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon on Saturday, they drop again.” They lost by 13 at home after leading 14-0. The drop is 11 spots, the most our movement rule allows. We think it is earned. We have now seen two full games of this team without Sayin, and Ohio State was pushed around on both lines in each. The FPI and SP+ ratings still have Ohio State fifth and fourth, but most of the games those ratings are built on came with Sayin at quarterback.

Why Notre Dame is ahead of BYU. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 in Provo on October 17th. That was a four-point road loss, which is the kind of result our rule allows us to override. Since then, Notre Dame has beaten Miami and BYU has lost to UCF and Utah. Notre Dame is 8-1 and BYU is 7-2.

Why USC is ahead of Oregon. Oregon beat USC 41-27 at the Coliseum on September 26th. That margin is not close, and it was on USC’s field. We are keeping USC ahead for the reason we gave last week: USC has the better record, 7-2 to 6-3, and our standard was that the head-to-head result would carry more weight if Oregon won out. Oregon has started that run with a win at Ohio State. We will say plainly that this one is close. If Oregon beats Michigan on Saturday and USC loses at Indiana, Oregon moves ahead.

Why Iowa is ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State beat Iowa 31-14 at Iowa City on October 3rd, with Sayin throwing for 324 yards. By our head-to-head rule, that result should hold. This is an exception, and it is the injury exception in reverse. Last week, Sayin’s absence was why Ohio State stayed ahead of USC despite a lopsided loss. This week it works the other way: the team that beat Iowa is not the team Ohio State has played the last two Saturdays. Iowa also has the better record, 7-2 to 6-3, and Ohio State is the team that has slipped. If Sayin returns and Ohio State wins out, we will look at it again.

Why Tennessee is ahead of South Carolina. Carried over: South Carolina beat Tennessee 27-24 in Columbia on October 24th. It was a three-point road loss, and Tennessee has the stronger body of work, including wins over Alabama and Kentucky.

Carried over. Indiana over Ohio State: Ohio State won 19-15 in Bloomington with Sayin playing most of the game. That position is easier to hold now, with Indiana 8-1 and Ohio State 6-3. Last week’s Boise State-over-Oregon position no longer applies, since Oregon is now ahead.

Why the rest held. Texas Tech held at 10th: it won, but BYU’s drop put it directly behind the Red Raiders and nobody below did enough to pass them.

Who’s out. Ole Miss (from 14th), LSU (15th) and Missouri (19th) all lost and all have three losses. Ole Miss lost 42-7 at home. LSU is 0-3 against the committee’s top 25, according to CBS. Missouri lost at home to Texas.

Who’s next. Ole Miss, LSU, New Mexico (8-1), Arizona (7-2), SMU (7-2) and Missouri, in about that order. New Mexico is 23rd in SP+ and has one loss, at Oklahoma, but SP+ ranks its schedule 128th.

The outside check

Last week we promised to set our ranking next to the committee’s first one. Here it is: the committee’s November 3rd top 25, from NCAA.com, next to our ranking from the same week.

Our top two matched the committee’s. The big differences were Notre Dame (our 4th, its 11th), BYU (3rd, 9th), Alabama (12th, 5th) and Kentucky (13th, 6th). Week 10 settled most of them. Notre Dame beat the committee’s No. 1 team. Alabama won at LSU, and ESPN wrote that the win confirmed the committee’s call on the Tide. Kentucky lost by 28. The committee was right about Alabama and Kentucky, and we have moved toward it on both. We were right to keep Notre Dame high, and we expect the committee to move toward us on Tuesday.

One disagreement is left, and it is about principle: Tennessee and Alabama. Yurachek said head-to-head between those two “is not going to come into play at this point because of where those teams were reviewed in the ranking process.” He said the same about South Carolina’s win over Tennessee. In other words, the committee only looks at a head-to-head result when it considers the two teams close. Our rule works the other way: the result stands unless it was close. CBS’s bowl projection expects the committee to keep Alabama ahead.

For Tuesday, ESPN’s projection has Georgia, Utah, Alabama, Texas, Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, UCLA, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech and BYU, with BYU left out to make room for Boise State. CBS projects the AP poll this afternoon as 1 Georgia, 2 Utah, 3 Notre Dame, 4 UCLA, 5 Miami, 6 Alabama, 7 Indiana, 8 Texas, 9 Tennessee and 10 Texas Tech. Every projection has Georgia first and Utah second, as we do. The biggest gap between us and both outside projections is still Alabama: we have it ninth, ESPN third, CBS sixth.

Best vs. Most Deserving

The Power Rankings reward what teams have done. This list is a different question: who would we expect to win on a neutral field next Saturday? It leans on how teams are playing now, and on FPI and SP+ (both runs dated November 8th).

Ohio State is not here. FPI has the Buckeyes fifth and SP+ fourth. This is our judgment, not the models’. Both ratings are built mostly on games Sayin played, and the team without him has lost two straight by 12 and 13 points. Last week we had Ohio State eighth on this list. After Saturday, we would not pick this version of the team against anyone above.

Alabama is fourth here and ninth in our rankings. That is the clearest gap between what Alabama has done and how well it plays. It sits behind Tennessee in the Power Rankings because of the head-to-head result, not because we think Tennessee is better.

LSU and Oregon are in; UCLA and Texas Tech are out. LSU is seventh in both models and lost by 18 at home Saturday. Its problem is results, not quality, and three losses keep it out of our 20. Oregon’s 41-28 win at Ohio State moved it into our list. UCLA (27th in FPI, 11th in SP+) and Texas Tech (14th and 13th) have the records but not the ratings.

Utah is seventh. That is the gap between second in our rankings and 10th in FPI. Utah’s résumé is the best in the country by résumé SP+. Its ratings are top-10 but not elite.

Notre Dame against Miami. Last week we wrote that “Saturday in South Bend answers this directly.” It did. Notre Dame stays ahead.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of the team’s chance to make the 12-team field. Change is measured against our preseason number.

The 22 teams add up to 10.25. With the Group of Six line (1.03) and the field (0.72), the total is 12.00.

The week’s moves. Ohio State fell 24 points, from 56 to 32, the most our rule allows. BYU fell 22, LSU 22, Ole Miss 20, Kentucky 16, Missouri 6 and Miami 5. On the way up: Alabama and Tennessee gained 22 each, Utah 16, Notre Dame 14, Texas 12, UCLA 10, Wake Forest 8, Georgia 7, Texas Tech and Houston 4 each, Indiana 2 and USC 1. Indiana and USC were both idle; they rose slightly because teams around them lost. Oregon (18), Iowa (14) and South Carolina (5) come out of the field, which is why the field drops from 1.13 to 0.72.

Why Ohio State is still at 32. FPI says 41.8. ESPN’s projection already has Ohio State out, and CBS’s bowl projection says even three more wins may not convince the committee. ESPN also expects three-loss teams to get in this year, which is what keeps the number this high. Northwestern comes to Columbus on Saturday. The 32 is mostly the chance that Sayin returns and the Buckeyes win out.

Alabama at 80 and Texas at 78. FPI has Alabama at 92.5 and Texas at 74.5. With Chattanooga and Vanderbilt on the schedule, Alabama looks safe unless it loses the Iron Bowl. Texas still has to go to LSU and to Texas A&M. ESPN’s point on Texas: at three losses, it would need to be 10th or better to be safe, because if Notre Dame finishes 11th or 12th, Boise State takes the other of those two spots.

Tennessee at 50. FPI says 35.5. We are higher because we have Tennessee eighth. The committee had it 13th, and the committee’s ranking is the one that counts. LSU on November 21st is the game: FPI gives Tennessee less than a 50 percent chance there, ESPN reports.

Kentucky at 32. FPI has 36.5. CBS’s bowl projection gets Kentucky in at 10-2, which means winning out against Florida, at Missouri and Louisville. One more loss and Kentucky is out.

What the Committee Will Have to Argue About

Last week we listed the arguments the committee would face in its first ranking. Now we know how it settled them, and Tuesday’s second ranking will show whether Week 10 changed anything.

What it decided

• Ohio State without Sayin. The committee put Ohio State 12th, in the bracket. Ohio State lost again Saturday, and ESPN now projects it out.
• USC’s win against its losses. The committee ranked USC 20th, eight spots below the Ohio State team USC beat by 12. It gave the Trojans little credit for that result.
• BYU or Notre Dame. It chose BYU, 9th to 11th, which honors the head-to-head result. ESPN reported that the committee marked Notre Dame down for having just one win over a .500 team.
• UCLA’s and Utah’s schedules. Utah third, UCLA eighth. Yurachek called their résumés “almost identical,” but said Utah looked like the better team on film.
• Kentucky’s résumé against its efficiency numbers. The résumé won: Kentucky was sixth. Then it lost 34-6.
• Georgia’s home loss. It did not hurt Georgia, which was second.
• Miami’s schedule. Not a problem in the first ranking: Miami was first.
• Indiana’s “quality loss.” The committee pointed to Indiana’s defense and its 5-1 record against teams at .500 or better.
• The two-loss SEC teams. Five SEC teams in the top 10: Alabama (5th), Kentucky (6th), Texas (7th), Ole Miss (10th) and Georgia. Tennessee was 13th and LSU 14th.
• Boise State with Madsen hurt. Boise was 25th, the only Group of Six team in the top 25, and the 12th seed in the projected bracket.

Coming later

• Notre Dame’s position. If Notre Dame is in the top 12, it is in. ESPN also points out that if the Irish finish 11th or 12th, the team in the other of those spots is bumped for the top Group of Six team. Every team ranked 9th through 12th will want Notre Dame ranked higher.
• Three-loss teams. ESPN calls three-loss at-large teams likely this year. CBS projects two three-loss SEC teams into the bracket, which would make five SEC teams, a single-league record. The SEC has four teams with two league losses (Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee) and five more with three.
• Two Big 12 teams. Utah beating BYU probably took BYU out of the top 12, ESPN wrote. The second Big 12 team is now more likely Texas Tech, if it reaches the title game.
• Miami as ACC runner-up. ESPN warns that Miami might not have enough on its résumé to make the top 12 without winning the ACC.
• Tennessee and Alabama. If they finish with the same record, CBS expects the committee to keep Alabama ahead despite Tennessee’s win.
• USC at Indiana. It is Indiana’s first chance at a win over a team in the committee’s top 25. For USC, a win would put it back in the playoff conversation.
• A 12-1 UCLA. ESPN thinks UCLA is in if it wins two of its last three, whatever happens in the Big Ten title game.

The Group of Six Race

For the first time this season there is a second serious candidate. Boise State is still the favorite, and Cutforth answered the quarterback question for one week. But New Mexico is 8-1, ranked 22nd in the AP poll, and 23rd in SP+, four spots ahead of Boise.

Playoff percentages are FPI’s. Records and league records come from the conference standings. Ranks are from the November 8th FPI and SP+ runs. FPI’s run appears to predate Texas State’s win at Oregon State, since it still lists Oregon State at 5-3.

Who is best. SP+ now has three Group of Six teams ahead of Boise: Liberty (22nd), New Mexico (23rd) and James Madison (26th). Boise is 27th, all four within 1.2 points. FPI still has Boise first among them by a wide margin, 33rd to New Mexico’s 42nd. New Mexico’s defense ranks seventh in SP+; Boise’s ranks 65th. Boise’s offense is seventh. Which one is “best” depends on which model you trust.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise. The committee ranked it last week and did not rank New Mexico. Boise’s résumé SP+ is 10th; New Mexico’s is 13th. SP+ ranks Boise’s schedule 73rd, New Mexico’s 128th and Liberty’s 131st. Boise’s one loss is by seven at Oregon, which just beat Ohio State. New Mexico’s loss is at Oklahoma, which is 5-4.

Who else. Liberty has the CUSA lead (FPI gives it 76.2 percent to win the league) but the weakest schedule in this group. North Texas is 5-0 in the American, with Memphis a game back. UTSA’s loss to FAU hurt it badly: SP+ dropped it 12 spots. James Madison has two losses.

Our split. Of the 1.03 Group of Six line: Boise State 0.64, New Mexico 0.27, Liberty 0.05, North Texas 0.03, and UTSA, James Madison, Louisiana Tech and the rest 0.01 each. Last week we had Boise 0.58, New Mexico 0.22 and UTSA 0.12. Boise’s number goes up because it won without Madsen. New Mexico’s goes up because it is the clear second choice now that UTSA has a second loss. Oregon State (0.03 last week) drops out after losing to Texas State.

This week. Oregon State at Boise State. UNLV at New Mexico on Saturday the 14th. James Madison at UConn. FPI’s conference odds: Pac-12 Boise State 74.8 percent; Mountain West New Mexico 71.2; American North Texas 53.2, Memphis 27.7, UTSA 11.8; CUSA Liberty 76.2; Sun Belt James Madison 47.0, Louisiana Tech 40.2; MAC Western Michigan 36.5, Toledo 31.1, Ohio 22.8.

Conference Projections

ACC. Miami 72 (down 3), Wake Forest 20 (up 4), SMU 5 (up 2), Louisville 2 (new), Duke 1, Virginia Tech 0 (down 4), Pitt 0 (down 1). Miami’s loss to Notre Dame doesn’t count in the league, where it is still 6-0, with Wake Forest 5-1. Wake goes to SMU on Saturday, and that game is the one that could change this. Virginia Tech is out after losing 51-28 at SMU. FPI: Miami 74.1, Wake Forest 20.7, SMU 2.9, Louisville 2.1.

SEC. Georgia 52 (up 9), Alabama 26 (up 14), Texas 10 (up 4), Tennessee 8 (up 3), Kentucky 3 (down 12), field 1 (South Carolina). Ole Miss (down 9), LSU (down 7) and Missouri (down 2) are now at zero. Georgia is 6-1 in the league and Alabama 5-2. Texas, Tennessee and Kentucky are all two-loss teams in the league. Georgia holds the tiebreaker over Alabama; Alabama holds it over Kentucky. FPI: Georgia 52.2, Alabama 32.7, Texas 9.0, Tennessee 4.2, Kentucky 1.1.

Big Ten. Indiana 40 (up 8), UCLA 34 (up 12), Ohio State 10 (down 24), Oregon 8 (up 7), USC 5 (up 2), Iowa 2, Wisconsin 1, Northwestern 0 (down 1), field 0 (down 4). UCLA is 6-0 and Indiana 5-1. They do not meet in the regular season, and ESPN calls UCLA–Indiana the likeliest title-game matchup. Six teams have two league losses: Iowa, USC, Illinois, Ohio State, Oregon and Wisconsin. Indiana is ahead of UCLA here, as it is in FPI, because both models rate Indiana higher and would favor it in a title game. Indiana’s remaining games are USC, at Washington and Purdue. FPI: Indiana 43.8, UCLA 19.2, Oregon 16.0, Ohio State 13.9, USC 3.9.

Big 12. Utah 58 (up 14), Texas Tech 26 (up 2), BYU 6 (down 17), Houston 5 (up 1), Oklahoma State 2 (up 1), Arizona 2 (down 1), Baylor 1. Utah is 6-0 and Texas Tech 5-1, and they do not play. BYU, Arizona, Baylor, Houston and Oklahoma State are all 4-2. Utah goes to Arizona and Texas Tech to Oklahoma State on Saturday. FPI: Utah 55.7, Texas Tech 18.0, BYU 8.0, Houston 8.0, Oklahoma State 4.5, Arizona 4.3.

Pac-12. Boise State 76 (up 6), Texas State 10 (up 7), Oregon State 8 (down 9), Fresno State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 2 (up 1), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1, Washington State 0. Boise is 5-0, and Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Utah State are all 3-2. FPI (from a run that appears to predate the Texas State–Oregon State result): Boise State 74.8, Oregon State 18.5, Texas State 4.0.

Conference Overviews

FPI’s top 25 has 10 SEC teams, six from the Big Ten, five from the Big 12, three from the ACC and Notre Dame. SP+ sees it differently this week: seven Big Ten teams, six Big 12, five SEC, four ACC, Notre Dame, and one each from CUSA (Liberty) and the Mountain West (New Mexico). Last week SP+ had eight SEC teams in its top 25. Ole Miss (down 17 spots to 30th), Missouri (down 12 to 29th), South Carolina (down 4 to 28th) and Kentucky (down 7 to 41st) account for the drop.

SEC. Georgia is back on top. Behind it, ESPN describes what amounts to an NFL-style race. Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee all have two conference losses, and Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Missouri and Oklahoma have three. ESPN thinks the title game could be a two-loss team against a three-loss team. The week’s results raised questions about Kentucky and Ole Miss, whose records look better than their play. Florida is 3-4 in the league and Texas A&M 1-5.

Big Ten. UCLA (6-0) leads Indiana (5-1), and the six teams behind them all have two league losses. Ohio State is one of them, and Oregon is another, with wins over USC and Ohio State. ESPN points out that UCLA and Indiana never met in the Rose Bowl in the Big Ten–Pac-12 era; this year they may meet in Indianapolis. Nebraska started 5-0, has lost four straight, and has fired its offensive coordinator.

Big 12. Utah is 6-0 and has the nation’s longest winning streak, 14 games. Texas Tech is 5-1. Five teams are 4-2, and Arizona hosts Utah on Saturday. The league’s best chance at a second playoff team is now Texas Tech or Utah as runner-up, not BYU.

ACC. Miami (6-0) and Wake Forest (5-1) lead. Louisville and SMU are 5-2, and Duke and Clemson are 4-2. SMU hosting Wake Forest on Saturday is the league’s biggest game left before December. Florida State fired Norvell and then won at Boston College. Duke won by 38 at NC State, CBS reports.

Pac-12. Boise State is 5-0 and has won eight straight. Texas State, Oregon State, San Diego State and Utah State are 3-2. CBS notes that the league’s first flex week at the end of November will set Boise’s Week 13 opponent later. The Pac-12 has the best Group of Six numbers in FPI (average −2.4, median −1.8, one team below 100th) and in SP+ (average −1.3, median −0.45, three teams below 100th).

American. North Texas is 5-0 and has won six straight, with Memphis and UTSA at 4-1. UTSA’s loss to FAU makes North Texas–UTSA, still to come, the game that decides the race. Tulane, last year’s champion, lost 60-10 to Tulsa and is 4-5. FPI average −6.2 (median −4.0, 5 of 14 teams below 100th); SP+ average −4.4 (median −2.45, 5 below 100th).

Mountain West. New Mexico is 5-0, with Wyoming at 5-1 and North Dakota State at 4-2. New Mexico (23rd) and North Dakota State (34th) give the league two teams in SP+’s top 35. FPI average −8.7 (median −9.65, 5 of 10 below 100th); SP+ average −6.3 (median −5.7, 4 below 100th). Northern Illinois is 0-9.

Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 5-0. In the East, Georgia Southern (4-1) leads James Madison (5-2) on percentage. James Madison is 26th in SP+, the highest in the league, and won 54-23 on Thursday. FPI average −9.3 (median −10.25, 9 of 14 below 100th); SP+ average −7.0 (median −7.6, 6 below 100th).

MAC. Ohio is 5-0 and the league’s only unbeaten team in conference play. Buffalo, Toledo and Western Michigan are 4-1. FPI average −15.2 (median −15.3, 10 of 13 below 100th); SP+ average −12.6 (median −13.2, 9 below 100th). CUSA, for the record: Liberty and Jacksonville State are both 5-0. FPI average −11.7 (median −13.85); SP+ average −8.8 (median −11.85).

The Week 11 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings. Percentages are ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor: each is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of this afternoon’s AP poll, not the poll itself. All games are Saturday, November 14th. Kickoff times and networks were not set when we wrote this; the SEC, for one, announces its times on Monday. FPI and SP+ conversions are our own arithmetic: the rating difference plus about 2.5 points for the home team.

Where the models and the market split. Missouri at Georgia is the biggest gap. SP+ makes Georgia about a 20-point favorite and FPI about 17, against a line of 13.5. Texas at LSU is the other: both models have LSU by about one or two points, against 4.5. In Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, both models call it close to even and the line has Oklahoma State by 2.5.

Predictions

Kentucky 26, Florida 23. FPI’s ratings make it Kentucky by about 1.5 points and SP+’s by about 5, and the line is 2.5, so the models split on the spread. ESPN gives Kentucky a 53.8 percent chance of winning. Kentucky’s last two big games were 28-point losses, but it is at home in a sold-out stadium, and Florida is coming off a 23-7 loss in which it ran into a team holding the ball for 38 minutes. Florida’s defense ranks 53rd in SP+. Kentucky wins and covers. Under 53.5. What it means: a Kentucky loss would be its third and would end its playoff case. A win keeps it on CBS’s 10-2 path.

Wake Forest 31, SMU 27. FPI makes it Wake Forest by about 3.5 points, SP+ by about 1.5, against a 2.5-point line. ESPN gives Wake Forest a 59.4 percent chance of winning. Both models favor Wake, but they split on the spread, so this cover is not a strong call. If Lopez plays, Wake’s offense (13th in SP+) should do enough against an SMU defense ranked 35th. Wake Forest wins and covers. Under 61.5. What it means: a Wake Forest win keeps it one loss behind Miami in the ACC and in our playoff conversation. An SMU win puts the Mustangs in our top 20 and makes the November 21st game at Notre Dame matter for both.

Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 36. FPI makes it Oklahoma State by less than a point; SP+ calls it even. The line is Oklahoma State by 2.5, and ESPN gives the Cowboys a 51 percent chance of winning. This is the one pick where we go against the market and FPI, though both lean only slightly, and SP+ is with us. Oklahoma State’s offense is third in SP+ and Drew Mestemaker is coming off a game with six total touchdowns at Kansas State. But its defense is 66th, and Texas Tech’s offense is eighth. Texas Tech wins, so it covers as the underdog. Over 70.5. What it means: a Texas Tech win keeps it on course for the Big 12 title game against Utah. A loss would be its second, and CBS’s projection has it out of the bracket already.

Utah 27, Arizona 21. Both models make it Utah by about 3.5 points, against a 2.5-point line. ESPN gives Utah a 60.4 percent chance of winning. Utah has outscored opponents 103-9 in the first quarter, and Arizona needed a late onside kick to beat 4-5 TCU at home. ESPN calls this probably Utah’s last game against a ranked opponent. Arizona has won seven straight at home. Utah wins and covers. Under 53.5. What it means: a Utah win makes it 10-0, and ESPN says a 12-0 Utah would almost certainly be in the top 12 even with a title-game loss. An Arizona win would be the Wildcats’ first over a ranked team this season.

Indiana 26, USC 17. FPI makes it Indiana by about 9 points, SP+ by about 10, against a 7-point line. ESPN gives Indiana a 78.2 percent chance of winning. Indiana’s defense is second in SP+ and USC’s offense 15th. USC’s defense is 39th, so even an Indiana offense that has struggled at quarterback should score enough. Indiana wins and covers. Under 49.5. What it means: an Indiana win gives it its first win over a team in the committee’s top 25 and keeps it a game behind UCLA. A USC win changes our rankings as we promised and puts the Trojans in the playoff conversation.

Georgia 31, Missouri 14. FPI makes it Georgia by about 17 points, SP+ by about 20, against a 13.5-point line. ESPN gives Georgia an 88.8 percent chance of winning. Last week we went against SP+ in this kind of spot and were wrong. Missouri’s run game, with Jamal Roberts, the SEC’s leading rusher, was held to 66 yards by Texas, and Georgia’s defense is first in SP+. Georgia wins and covers. Under 47.5. What it means: a Georgia win keeps it first. A loss would be its second, and No. 1 would be open again.

LSU 24, Texas 21. FPI makes it LSU by about 1 point, SP+ by about 2, against a 4.5-point line. ESPN gives LSU a 52.6 percent chance of winning. Our pick rule says not to go against FPI, SP+ and the market all at once without a strong case, and we don’t have one. Texas’s defense (fourth in SP+) is good enough to keep this close, but the Longhorns have committed 14 turnovers this season. LSU wins, Texas covers. Under 45.5. What it means: a Texas loss would be its third. ESPN’s point applies: at three losses, Texas would need to be 10th or better to be safe. An LSU win puts it back near our top 20 with Tennessee next.

The tally: Six favorites straight up (Kentucky, Wake Forest, Utah, Indiana, Georgia and LSU) and one underdog (Texas Tech). Against the spread, five favorites (Kentucky, Wake Forest, Utah, Indiana and Georgia) and two underdogs (Texas Tech and Texas). Six unders and one over (Texas Tech–Oklahoma State).

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The Three-Point Problem Runs Both Ways

The Georgetown game was decided from the arc, and so was the Bucknell game — Maryland just had a 32-point rebounding cushion in the first one to hide it.

That is a 51-point deficit from three in two games.

The Crab 5 team shot 37.3% from three on 21.7 attempts a game. Last year’s team shot 28.9% on 21 attempts. This year’s team is not going to shoot like the Crab 5, but it has to be well clear of last year’s number, and right now it is nowhere close.

The individual starts:

• DJ Wagner: 0-for-8. He made 34.6% last season on 3.1 attempts a game.
• Bishop Boswell: 1-for-7. He made 38.5% last season on 2.3 attempts.
• Andre Mills: 4-for-13. He made 34.6% last year on 4.8 attempts. Through two games he is up to 6.5 attempts. If the volume holds, the percentage has to come with it.
• Mike McNair Jr.: 2-for-4. A 41.8% career shooter on 4.8 attempts. More on him below.
• Austin Brown: 0-for-5.

A lot of these have been open looks. That is the encouraging read – the shots are there, and this group is better than 20.8% by any reasonable measure of who these players are.

The other side of the coin is less forgiving. Bucknell went 12-of-31 and Georgetown went 15-of-30, the Hoyas’ most made threes in a game since 2010. Maryland has not contested enough. That was also true in the West Virginia exhibition, when the Mountaineers made eight of their first 11 and built a 19-point lead by attacking switches. Three games running now, opponents have gotten clean looks from deep against a team that was sold on its defense.

Last season Maryland allowed 1.27 points per possession against top-50 opponents, last in Division I. The first real opponent of this season put up 86 on 52% shooting. Two games is not a verdict. It is also not evidence against the concern.

Three Things In The Box Score That Had Nothing To Do With Shooting

It is easy to write Saturday off as a hot night for Georgetown and a cold one for Maryland. Three numbers say otherwise.

Assists: Georgetown 19, Maryland 9. The Hoyas assisted on 70% of their made field goals. Maryland assisted on 35%, and turned it over 14 times against those nine assists. Georgetown ran offense. Maryland generated shots one player at a time. Pharrel Payne scored 28 points and was credited with zero assists — the ball went in to him and the possession ended one way or the other.

The rebounding edge got cut in half. Against Bucknell it was 54-22 overall and 28-6 on the offensive glass. Against Georgetown it was 37-27 and 19-10. Still a win, and 19 offensive boards is a real number. But the identity that looked overwhelming on Monday looked ordinary on Saturday against the first opponent with size. Chol Machot, the 7-footer from College of Charleston listed at 190 pounds who everyone assumed Maryland would move at will, had five blocks in 18 minutes. Georgetown blocked seven shots to Maryland’s one.

Mike McNair attempted two shots in 21 minutes. This is the most fixable thing on the list. He finished fifth nationally in three-point percentage last season with a program-record 110 makes at Boston University, where he averaged 16.9 points on 36 minutes a night. Against Georgetown he took one three, scored zero points, and picked up four fouls. He has started both games and played 21 minutes in each.

If McNair is going to start and play 21 minutes, he has to shoot. That is the entire reason he is here. Two attempts in a game decided by three-point shooting is either an offense that is not finding him or a player who is not hunting, and both are correctable in practice.

One more thing worth noting about the shape of the night: nobody except Payne played 30 minutes. Mills played 19, the fewest of any starter, with three fouls. Williams has been using mass substitutions – “hockey subs,” five at a time – and said after Bucknell he plans to keep doing it for a few more games. Against the Bison it produced an eight-minute stretch without a field goal. Against Georgetown it produced a team that never found a rhythm until the game was gone. Maryland closed on a 19-6 run, which is both encouraging and a reminder of how much was left on the floor earlier.

Two Games In, Player By Player

Pharrel Payne. How can you not love this guy? Thirteen points, six boards, two steals and two blocks against Bucknell. Twenty-eight points and eight rebounds against Georgetown on 10-of-14 shooting. After going 3-of-9 at the line in the opener, he went 8-of-8 Saturday. He works. He is the one Terp who has been exactly what was advertised.

Kaden House. Fourteen points against Bucknell, 13 against Georgetown, all in the second half. He hit both of his threes Saturday. Six free throw attempts in the opener, seven against the Hoyas. He hustles, he defends, he gets downhill. There is a lot to like, and he is already the most consistent perimeter scorer on the roster through two games. The question is whether Williams makes him more of a focal point or keeps him at 18 to 21 minutes.

Tomislav Buljan. Good first impressions. The Croatian sophomore throws his weight around without lumbering, and he has 17 rebounds in two games including six offensive boards Saturday. Three turnovers against Georgetown, a couple of them from bringing the ball down low and trying to do too much – cleanable. He averaged 13.1 a game at New Mexico and is at 7.0 through two. He will get fewer touches here, which is fine, but Maryland needs him finishing around the rim and not just rebounding.

Andre Mills. Twenty-two points and 11 rebounds against Bucknell, nine points on 4-of-15 against Georgetown. Maryland will not win many games when he is not scoring. What is good about his offensive game is the variety – he can go coast to coast, he has intermediate stuff, he can get to the line. On a night like Saturday when the outside shot is not falling, you want to see him recognize it earlier and attack. The 11 rebounds against Bucknell dropping to two against Georgetown is also worth watching.

DJ Wagner. The outside shot has not come yet, but the speed is real and he has looked good going to the basket. One number to flag: his career high in field goal attempts was 10.2 a game at Arkansas two years ago, in 34.6 minutes. Through two games as a Terp he is averaging 11.5 attempts in 25.5 minutes. That is a significantly higher usage rate than he has ever carried, and it is coming while he is 0-for-8 from deep.

Baba Oladotun. Nineteen minutes in his debut, 18 against Georgetown. Seven points, four boards, an assist and two blocks against Bucknell after missing his first few attempts. One-of-3 with two rebounds and two steals Saturday. We have seen the glimpses – the movement at his size is unusual. We have also seen a 17-year-old, 18 in December, who reclassified and then missed most of his senior season with an ankle injury, now getting acclimated to college basketball. He is 1-of-6 from the line. He does not look settled on where he wants to be on the floor yet, and he clearly wants to put it on the deck.

Williams said it better than anyone after the opener: “Any 17-year-old that’s supposed to be in high school, no matter who the opponent is, who’s playing in his hometown state in game number one, he is going to be sped up. We had some 23-year-olds that were sped up.”

The hope was that he would dominate from day one. That was always a lot to ask. The right measure is improvement game to game and month to month. He sits 37th on ESPN’s 2027 draft board, so this may be his only year in College Park – which argues for simplifying things for him as fast as possible. Start here, then add this. If everything clicks at some point this season, Maryland’s ceiling moves.

Robert Jennings II. A good reserve big. Athletic, good size, defends and rebounds, and he knocked down a surprising three against Bucknell. The 15 or so minutes he gets a night matter.

Austin Brown. Zero-for-6 in his debut and 0-for-1 against Georgetown, 0-for-5 from three combined. He played five minutes Saturday, which is about what to expect against major non-conference opponents and in Big Ten games. Two games is nothing, but Williams does seem to want him on the floor.

The end of the bench. Adama Tambedou, George Turkson Jr., Guillermo Del Pino and Maban Jabriel. None of them will play much absent injuries, but all four could matter at some point. Tambedou has the athletic body if the bigs get in foul trouble. Turkson is an energy guy who could help if Maryland is getting out-hustled. Del Pino has a year of adjusting to the country and the system behind him and should be further along — he was hurt for the opener. Jabriel’s path is showing he can rebound in practice; if he does, a 6-9 shooter who made 43.2% from three at Queens might earn a look, and this team needs shooting.

What Fixes Itself, And What Doesn’t

I do not want to overreact to a game on November 7th. But I found Saturday largely unacceptable, and I have defended Williams a lot over the last year.

Georgetown looked better than the prognostications about them. They were picked 10th in the Big East, second to last. Maybe they’ll be better than expected, but still their not likely to be Big East contender. These were two teams with a lot of new parts, and the Hoyas looked like they had a better sense of who they were. Maryland does not have to be a finished product in early November. Watching Georgetown lead by 20 for most of the night was still deflating, and it cost a resume builder that was there for the taking.

Things that will correct on their own. You play that game again today, and Georgetown is probably not shooting 50% from three again. Maryland is not shooting 20.8% from three all year – these are career 34 to 42 percent shooters taking open looks. Both of those numbers move toward the middle, and both move in Maryland’s favor. Fifteen made threes was the most by a Georgetown team in sixteen years. That is the definition of an outlier.

Things that will not. A 35% assist rate. Fourteen turnovers against nine assists. A starting shooter taking two shots in 21 minutes. Opponents getting clean looks from deep in three straight games because nobody closed out. Mass substitutions that leave the team without rhythm against an opponent that came out ready.

The first list is why I am not panicking after two games. The second list is why Saturday bothered me more than the final score suggests.

This team has good pieces. It is not hard to picture plenty of nights where Payne works inside, Mills puts in 20, and the rest of the roster contributes enough to win a good share of games. You can see further ceiling if House becomes more of a focal point and the lights come on for Oladotun.

It is also not hard to picture plenty of nights where this group simply does not shoot well enough to compete with the best teams on the schedule. You can see where these become rock fights. Which means Maryland has to get to the line in big numbers – a strength of Williams’ teams historically – and be locked in for 40 minutes.

It took too long for the defensive intensity to arrive Saturday. For this group to be good, they need to embrace a simple idea: we are going to make you hate playing against us. We are going to fight on every possession.

That is the lesson from game two, and it is available to them Friday.

Virginia, Friday, At Xfinity Center

No. 9 Virginia is 2-0 after beating Drexel 89-60 and Northeastern 97-72. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Cavaliers a 52.8% chance, which is close to a coin flip against a top-10 team and a fair reflection of a winnable home game.

We had Virginia seventh nationally and second in the ACC in our preseason piece, when ESPN had them 13th.

The scouting report writes itself, which cuts both ways. Virginia’s offense is extraordinarily concentrated in four returners from last year’s 30-win team. Thijs De Ridder, Johann Grunloh, Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory combined for 69 of the 97 points against Northeastern. Against Drexel, those four plus German freshman Nolan Adekunle scored Virginia’s first 37 points. De Ridder put up 12 in the first 2:22 of the opener.

That is a team you can game-plan, if you can guard four people. It is also a team that will punish you if you cannot.

Things working in Maryland’s favor. Virginia starts slow too. Against Northeastern they went 2-of-10 from the field with four turnovers in the first eight minutes, went 0-for-7 from three to open, and did not lead until 8:23 remained in the half. They committed 14 turnovers against Drexel, six by Mallory, and the two teams combined for 18 first-half turnovers against Northeastern. Grunloh played Friday on an injured right ankle and is worth tracking this week.

Things working against Maryland. Virginia can shoot it at every position, which is the exact profile that has hurt the Terps in three straight games. They went 10-for-29 from deep against Drexel and 6-for-14 in the second half against Northeastern, finishing that game at 61.3% from the floor. If Maryland closes out the way it has so far, this is not close. As we said, Virginia returned a lot of experience. They know who they are. MD is trying to figure out who they are.

The schedule note. Virginia plays No. 12 Arkansas today and then Bucknell on Tuesday before coming to College Park. The Bucknell game gives us a direct comparison point, and the Arkansas result will tell us something real about where the Cavaliers actually are. Maryland gets five days off.

What has to happen. Guard the arc. Get Payne touches – he just put 28 on a team with a shot-blocking center and did not miss a free throw. Get McNair shots. And start the game with the right intensity. Can’t spot a Top 10 team 12 points and hope to climb back.

The Non-Conference Math

Coming into the year, Maryland had six chances at quality non-conference wins: Georgetown, Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa State or San Diego State, the third Players Era game, and South Carolina.

One is gone. Five are left:

Going 3-2 the rest of the way leaves the non-conference resume in decent shape entering Big Ten play. Going 2-3 means entering the league chasing. Going 1-4 means the margin is gone before January, with a December that opens at Ohio State and hosts Michigan State three days later.

Williams said at media day that the November slate is “more than you want as a head coach being transparent,” and framed it as a deliberate bet – the quality of competition in the first four weeks producing data and seasoning that pays off “after Valentine’s Day.” Three games in four days in Las Vegas, possibly four in five.

That is a real argument, and it is the kind of thing that looks smart in March if the team is good. It also means the margin for error in November is thin, and one of the six chances is already spent.

The post Two Games In: What Maryland Showed, And Virginia On Friday appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Last night, the Ravens got overwhelmed by the Jaguars, 33-10, falling to 4-5 on the season. They now rank last in the AFC North and 10th in the AFC. With the Jacoby Brissett trade becoming official today, they’ve had six different quarterbacks on their roster in the last week.

At this point, it seems like the way this organization is currently comprised leaves fans without a reasonable expectation that Baltimore will win again this season. That seems like a drastic statement, but take a look at what has been displayed as of late, on and off the field.

Before last night, Baltimore’s four wins came against teams that are a combined 9-23. So even when the Ravens have done well this year, it’s largely been against teams who’ve underperformed themselves.

Last week it was Anthony Weaver criticizing fans saying they needed to do their part. This week it was Marlon Humphrey calling out fans for being too critical even when the Ravens win.

The Ravens rank 26th in the NFL in points allowed per game (26.2), and Humphrey used to play for Nick Saban at Alabama, who called a staff meeting at 7 am the morning after a National Championship win. In what world are these guys living in, that they think those comments were a good idea?

Weaver played for Baltimore. He knows the standard. His defense, overall, has been appalling. Humphrey, just 1 1/2 seasons removed from an All-Pro season, now looks completely lost in the secondary. Yet, these are the guys pointing the finger? Talk about tone def.

Obviously, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I just don’t see how making those comments in the midst of performances that they’ve been giving was thought to have been a good idea.

Fans know it’s hard to win in the NFL. They know that when you lose a player like Lamar Jackson, things won’t be the same and that it affects everyone on the team. All fans really want is to see some fight and hear some truthful answers when things go wrong. Thank goodness for Offensive Line coach Dwayne Ledford, who let his players have it in this clip from last night (Baltimore’s offensive line is T-24th in sacks allowed (23)).

Speaking of the offensive line, in a way, it’s not all their fault. The front office has some explaining to do as well. From this Yahoo Sports article in June, here are the amounts of money spent by the Ravens, by position:

Tell me how you have a once-in-a-generation quarterback and a Hall of Fame running back, and the men tasked to protect them are only invested in to the tune of $37.5 million? How is that even possible?

This graphic doesn’t even account for the recent trade acquisition of Cam Jurgens, who ranks last among guards in all of football (according to Pro Football Focus). Some will say center is his natural position, but that’s an excuse. You don’t have to be the best guard if you’re playing out of position, but there is no way you should be traded a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick if you’re ranked as the worst guard—especially from a team like the Ravens who so greatly values draft capital. Ronnie Stanley grades out in the bottom third of all tackles in football, yet is scheduled to make $24 million next year. Mark Andrews has less yards and half as many touchdowns since 2025 than he had in all of 2024. Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely is doing really well in New York.

The defense is the 2nd-highest paid defense in the league, yet has performed in the bottom 25 percent of defenses so far this season.

When the Ravens would lose a couple of games here and there in the past, fans still believe that at least the franchise infrastructure was solid. There was still assurance things would turn around sooner rather than later.

That is no longer the shared belief on this fanbase.

So where do they go from here?

To be fair, I’m not saying the team needs to be gutted, coaches need to be fired, front office personnel need to be purged, or anything like that. What I am saying is that Steve Bisciotti needs to have serious conversations with Sashi Brown, Eric DeCosta, and Jesse Minter ASAP about where this team is going this year and beyond. Use the mini-bye to your advantage.

If I was the owner, I would talk to all three of those guys individually and then once more collectively. I’d ask them these questions and then discuss the answers as a group:

1) Where do you think we’ve gone wrong so far?

2) What have we done well/what systems or personnel should stay in place?

3) What changes would you make if you were me, regardless of bad press it they may incur?

4) Who are our best 11 players on offense, defense, and special teams, regardless of salary or tenure?

5) Which players and coaches are exceeding expectations?

6) Which players and coaches are falling short of expectations?

7) How often have you reviewed performance of the people under your direct leadership?

8) How would you grade your own performance so far?

9) Should Lamar be our quarterback of the future? Meaning, at this juncture it seems like we should either plan on him being our guy for his entire career, or see if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause while his value is still fairly high. We all want him to be our quarterback now, but considering the scope of the entire roster, can we make a $70 million per year player work? Can we afford to have one player comprise 22-24 percent of our entire salary cap, when that player’s availability is in question each year?

Bottom line: the Baltimore Ravens are at an inflection point in their history. They’ve experienced an incredible amount of success over the last three decades, but now the team is unrecognizable.

This would all be acceptable if the team wasn’t a major Super Bowl contender. This would all be acceptable if there wasn’t a proven, recent display of winning and competing for a divisional championship every year. But this isn’t acceptable. The Ravens are just now starting the more challenging portion of their schedule. It will only get harder from here; hence the urgency Mr. Bisciotti must have to identify the root issues and implement solutions.

Otherwise, fans will cease to renew season ticket packages, will stop buying merchandise, and will stop trusting that the powers that be can get things moving in the right direction again.

As I said at the top, the time for excuses has long passed. This organization owes the fans answers.

Make no mistake: this franchise has plenty of really good things in place at key positions. Fans are showing proactive urgency so as not to give into the human nature complacency and do their part to help the team by giving honest feedback in real time.

How many times do you get bombarded with surveys and questions after you dine out or buy something? That kind of real-time intel is extremely valuable because it allows companies to pivot toward the client-desired outcome in real time.

Ravens fans are voluntarily giving the Ravens organization plenty of that valuable information. We’re fed up and we know you all are capable of so much more. We also know the possibility of not going to a Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the same backfield is growing more probable by the week. Can you imagine if that happened, or worse, if they got traded and won the Super Bowl somewhere else?

I just hope 1 Winning Drive is listening.

The post Asking Questions At The Mini-Bye appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The plan was the one the roster allowed. The Ravens snapped the ball directly to Derrick Henry 10 times, and Jacksonville was ready for it: “We practiced Wildcat a ton,” Liam Coen said, per AP. Joe Fagnano went 10 of 18 for 60 yards with two second-half interceptions. His longest completion was 14 yards, and he threw only one pass 10 or more yards downfield.

It was 10-3 until Trevor Lawrence hit Parker Washington for a 50-yard touchdown with 58 seconds left in the half. Jacksonville’s only other touchdown drive was the opening 77 yards. By our count from the play-by-play, 16 of its 33 points came after Ravens turnovers: field goals after both interceptions and after a fourth-and-1 aborted snap at the Jacksonville 41, and Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s touchdown after LaJohntay Wester’s kickoff-return fumble, which Jacksonville won on a challenge.

Justice Hill’s 65-yard run with 7:26 left was the Ravens’ first touchdown after halftime since Week 5. Jake Moody made a 53-yarder in his debut. Henry ran 17 times for 57 yards and passed Jerome Bettis and LaDainian Tomlinson for seventh on the career rushing list.

The Ravens had no sacks, four more false starts and a league-high 24 for the season. Kyle Hamilton left in the third quarter with a hip injury and did not return; Minter had no update. Nate Wiggins was inactive with an illness.

The Ravens were playing a rookie third-string quarterback against one of the better teams in the league. Losing was of course the expectation. My hope was to run, run and run again, keep it close and possibly be in-position to steal something with a turnover or a special-teams play. That was more of a pipe-dream, vs. anything realistic.

There are eight games left. Jackson is on injured reserve, Tyler Huntley is out for the season, and Jacoby Brissett is expected to start against the Chargers after an 11-day break. The rest of this piece is a reset: the coaching staff, the roster DeCosta built, Jackson’s future, what’s left of the playoff path, and the trade deadline on Tuesday.

Minter And The Staff

The staff has lost four straight since the overtime win in Atlanta, and most of the reasons trace to injuries it didn’t cause. But several problems showed up while Jackson or a healthy backup was playing, and those are on the coaches.

The realistic ask

This was a first-year Head Coach, a Defensive Coordinator who calls his own defense, and a 30-year-old Offensive Coordinator calling plays for the first time. Declan Doyle came from Chicago; Anthony Weaver returned from Miami as defensive coordinator, per WMAR. Minter was third in CBS Sports’ preseason poll of defensive playcallers, behind Mike Macdonald and Steve Spagnuolo.

The roster they inherited went 8-9 in 2025, with 30 sacks, more than only two teams, and the 31st-ranked pass defense. Outside, the expectations were still high (see the DeCosta section below). In our season preview, we had them fifth overall to begin the year, finishing 11-6, under the DraftKings total of 11.5. The question we asked of them was how much of the last two seasons was actually coaching.

The realistic ask, then: with a healthy Jackson, win the AFC North or come close, and fix the pass rush and pass defense that sank 2025.

My belief was if Jackson could suit-up for 15 games, the Ravens would be amongst the top teams in the AFC.

The adversity

• Quarterback. Jackson has played 14 full quarters. Brissett will be the fourth quarterback to throw a pass this season, tying a franchise record. With Jackson starting, the Ravens are 3-2, including the one-snap game in Buffalo. They are 1-2 with Huntley and 0-1 with Fagnano. Zay Flowers missed the Saints game with a hamstring, Ja’Kobi Lane spent Weeks 2-5 on injured reserve with a fractured wrist, and Durham Smythe, the best blocking tight end, was lost to an Achilles injury against Tennessee.
• Center and the line. Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle) and Ethan Pocic (knee) were both hurt in Rio, and by Week 4 Gwyn, Pocic and Danny Pinter were all on injured reserve. Rookie guard Vega Ioane played center until Cam Jurgens arrived, then hurt his knee in Jurgens’ first game. Ronnie Stanley missed Rio with a toe injury, and Andrew Vorhees started at right guard for the first time since college. That’s six different starting line combinations, per ESPN.
• Defense. Tavius Robinson (torn pectoral) is out for the season. Trey Hendrickson played in a cast on a broken finger, then missed two games after finger surgery. Nnamdi Madubuike missed the first two games; Rio was his first game in more than a year. Marlon Humphrey (calf) and Teddye Buchanan (knee) missed time. Hamilton left Thursday, and Wiggins missed it.
• The schedule. Buffalo, then Jacksonville four days later, with a rookie making his first start on four days’ rest.

Where they’ve fallen short

Second halves. Through seven games, the Ravens were plus-65 in first halves and minus-70 in second halves. They led in Cleveland and against Cincinnati and lost both, the 10th time since 2022 they blew a double-digit second-half lead, per @BenjaminSolak. Both of those were Huntley starts. Jackson was playing in Week 2, when New Orleans outscored the Ravens 15-0 in the fourth quarter to erase a 17-9 lead, and in Rio, where Dallas retook the lead in the fourth before Loop’s 56-yarder won it. After the Saints game I wrote that seeing the same fourth-quarter storyline continue in Minter’s home debut was a bit deflating.

Pre-snap penalties. The 24 false starts lead the league, per Ravens.com. Minter called them “unacceptable” Thursday and called it a question of “ownership of players and coaches.” Stanley and Andrews had back-to-back false starts on one second-quarter drive. That’s discipline and operation, and it doesn’t depend on who plays quarterback.

Short yardage. Through the Cincinnati game, Henry had converted 2 of 10 carries with 1 or 2 yards to go over three games.

The defense Minter calls. It is 14th in FTN’s defensive DVOA, and our defensive line rankings dropped it from seventh to 12th this week. It had no takeaways in its first three losses. Cincinnati scored touchdowns on five straight second-half possessions, and Buffalo on three of four. Thursday it had no sacks of Lawrence. Of everything here, this is the part that most directly answers the preseason question, because it’s Minter’s own unit. Third downs have been the leak: New Orleans converted 8 of 15 at an average of about eight yards to go, and Atlanta 9 of 17, including all four that needed 10 or more. My view all season has been that this defense is too passive, too comfortable in big, soft zones. There’s too much talent, and too much of the cap, on that side of the ball not to ask it to attack more.

Decisions. Tied with New Orleans in the fourth quarter, the Ravens threw deep on third-and-1 instead of making the Saints stop Henry, and a lost challenge on a 3-yard completion cost a timeout they needed at the end. In Rio, Minter went for fourth-and-1 at his own 30 in the first quarter, and it cost seven points. In Atlanta, the Ravens chose to receive in overtime, which surprised me. Down 14-13 on the first play of the fourth quarter in Cincinnati, they went for it on fourth-and-2 at the 12 instead of kicking for the lead with a backup quarterback. In Buffalo, Doyle had Fagnano throwing almost immediately after he entered. [CHECK: our count of Fagnano’s first plays in Buffalo from the play-by-play] Thursday’s Wildcat plan was creative, and Jacksonville had prepared for it.

The other side

The Ravens started 4-1, two of those wins with Huntley. The offense was producing with Jackson: 10.1 yards a pass in his four full games. And the defense kept the last two games within reach into the second half; Thursday, Jacksonville had two touchdown drives longer than 32 yards.

After Atlanta I wrote that Doyle continued to impress. His short-yardage adjustment against Tennessee and the Cuevas trick play in Cleveland are what a first-year playcaller needs to show. After Cleveland I also wrote that I didn’t think the staff had Huntley in a great position to succeed. In our Buffalo review, I wrote that Minter calling the defense is supposed to be his strength. At-least his on-field strength.

DeCosta’s Roster

Entering this season, the people who grade rosters for a living thought DeCosta had built one of the two or three best in football. Nine games in, the record is 4-5. Most of the gap is Jackson’s health, but the roster was also built older and thinner up front than those grades suggested.

What outsiders thought in August

From our season preview:

The 2025 roster had been billed as the league’s best too, per Ravens.com, and went 8-9.

Three offseasons

2024. DeCosta signed Derrick Henry for two years and $16 million and extended Justin Madubuike for four years and $98 million after tagging him. He let Patrick Queen (Pittsburgh), Geno Stone (Cincinnati), Jadeveon Clowney (Carolina), Kevin Zeitler (Detroit) and John Simpson (the Jets) leave, and traded Morgan Moses to the Jets. That was three line starters gone in one offseason. The draft opened with Nate Wiggins at No. 30 and Roger Rosengarten at No. 62, then Adisa Isaac, Devontez Walker, T.J. Tampa and Rasheen Ali. The Ravens won the AFC North and lost in the divisional round at Buffalo.

2025. He re-signed Ronnie Stanley for three years and $60 million and extended Kyle Hamilton (four years, $100.4 million), Henry (two years, $30 million) and Rashod Bateman. The free-agent adds were short and cheap: DeAndre Hopkins, Jaire Alexander, Chidobe Awuzie, Cooper Rush. He declined Tyler Linderbaum’s fifth-year option. The draft brought Malaki Starks at No. 27, Mike Green at No. 59, Emery Jones Jr., Teddye Buchanan, Carson Vinson, Tyler Loop, LaJohntay Wester and Aeneas Peebles. During the season he traded Odafe Oweh to the Chargers for Alohi Gilman, and added Dre’Mont Jones from Tennessee for a conditional fifth. The Ravens started 1-5, finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs; the defense had 30 sacks after 54 the year before.

2026. The Ravens fired John Harbaugh after 18 seasons and hired Jesse Minter after interviewing 16 candidates, per Pro Football Rumors. Then March went sideways:

• Linderbaum left for Las Vegas on a three-year deal worth up to $81 million.
• Maxx Crosby. The Ravens agreed to send their 2026 and 2027 first-round picks to the Raiders, then backed out after his physical, citing his knee, which needed meniscus surgery. DeCosta said he was “gutted,” per NFL.com. The No. 14 pick they kept became Vega Ioane.
• Trey Hendrickson signed for four years and $112 million at 31, coming off core muscle surgery and four sacks in seven games.
• Jackson’s extension didn’t happen, so the Ravens restructured him for $39.96 million in room, which is where the $84.34 million 2027 cap number comes from.
• Also gone: Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar, Patrick Ricard, Daniel Faalele, Keaton Mitchell, Gilman, Dre’Mont Jones and punter Jordan Stout, per SI. Added: Jaylinn Hawkins, Simpson again, Durham Smythe; Awuzie re-signed. Likely followed Harbaugh to the Giants. As I wrote after Atlanta, the Ravens extended Andrews when they couldn’t get Likely locked in, and it feels like they should have told Likely he was the lead option.

The draft: Ioane at No. 14, Zion Young at 45, Ja’Kobi Lane at 80, Elijah Sarratt at 115, Matt Hibner at 133, then Chandler Rivers, Josh Cuevas, Adam Randall, Ryan Eckley. In October, DeCosta sent a 2028 second and a 2027 fifth to Philadelphia for Cam Jurgens and a 2027 seventh.

What the three years add up to

The draft has been the strength. Of the last three classes, Ioane, Starks, Rosengarten, Wiggins, Green and Tampa are starters or regulars, and Eckley is the punter. Green and Robinson are tied for the team lead with 3.5 sacks. Hibner, Cuevas and Lane are getting real snaps as rookies. Day 3 has supplied the kicker, punter, returners and two tight ends.

The trenches have been the weakness. The 2024 line exodus, Linderbaum’s departure and the center carousel since have left the offensive line 22nd in our rankings. The pass rush has been bought rather than built: Hendrickson at 31, Calais Campbell at 40, Dre’Mont Jones for half a season. Pro Football Rumors called getting stronger in the trenches the top priority after 2025.

The roster is old where it is expensive. Hendrickson is 31, Humphrey 30, Andrews 31, Henry 32, Stanley 32 and Campbell 40, per The Ringer, which put the blame on DeCosta’s roster management more bluntly than anyone: “bad roster management.” That’s one outlet’s view; Clay’s August grades said the opposite.

The cap has been spent forward. The Ravens are tight this year, about $1.9 million in room, and carry the league’s highest 2027 commitments, $366.74 million per NFLPA data via CBS Sports. Over The Cap has them about $46 million over a $327 million cap. The Jackson restructure and the void years were the price of keeping 2026 intact.

The Minter hire is too early to grade. He came with the credentials the job asked for: two Harbaugh coaching trees, a national title at Michigan and a top-six defense by EPA with the Chargers, per Chargers.com. The staff section above covers what nine games have shown.

Unit Grades

Two grades for each unit. Performance is what it has done through nine games. Talent is what’s in the room for the rest of this year and into 2027. Both are our grades, and both account for the context: three quarterbacks, six line combinations and the injuries above. Season stats are from the team stats sheet; line numbers are from our rankings.

Offense

Quarterback. Jackson has a 118.4 rating and 10.0 yards a pass in his five games. Tyler Huntley was a functional backup: 95.5, 6.6 a pass, and 11 sacks in five games. Joe Fagnano has a 28.9 rating with no touchdowns and three interceptions. The performance grade is mostly a grade on availability and depth, and the depth was always one injury from this.

Running back. Henry has 689 yards on 175 carries, 3.9 a carry, with eight touchdowns. He is the one player defenses have been able to load up against since Week 4, and his short-yardage conversions fell to 2 of 10 over the three games through Cincinnati. Justice Hill is at 7.3 a carry on 33. Henry turns 33 in January; his contract is a 2027 question.

Receivers. Zay Flowers has 43 catches for 614 yards, 14.3 a catch, with three different starters throwing to him, then had no catches in Buffalo. Bateman has 294 yards. Flowers missed the Saints game with a hamstring, and Lane spent Weeks 2-5 on injured reserve with a fractured wrist; he had four catches, three on third down, in his first game back. Walker and Sarratt haven’t separated yet. After Atlanta I wrote that my preseason take on Flowers as a high-end No. 2 was bad. And it was. He’s been excellent this year, and if Jackson had stayed healthy his numbers would be even better. Clay graded the group a 5 in August, and that holds.

Tight ends. Mark Andrews has 31 catches for 237 yards, 7.6 a catch, plus a lost fumble and false starts. He averaged 12.1 yards a catch for his career and 8.8 last year, and in Atlanta had a dropped touchdown, a lost fumble and a dropped two-point try. Durham Smythe, the best blocker in the room, was lost to an Achilles injury against Tennessee. Josh Cuevas (10 for 134) and Matt Hibner (six for 75) are rookies getting real snaps, which counts toward the talent grade. Cuevas and Hibner both look promising. Andrews is tough to watch at this point.

Offensive line. The line has allowed 23 sacks, is 22nd in our rankings (47% pass block win rate, 21st; 73% run block, 19th) and is responsible for most of the league-high 24 false starts. Ronnie Stanley has several of those.

It’s also the hardest unit to grade fairly. Gwyn, Pocic and Pinter were all on injured reserve by Week 4, Ioane moved from guard to center, and Carson Vinson started at left tackle in Rio with Stanley out. That’s six line combinations. Roger Rosengarten has played right tackle next to Andrew Vorhees, Emery Jones Jr. and Ioane at right guard, and has had to adjust to each. Vorhees hadn’t played right guard since his sophomore year at USC, and Jones made his first career start in Atlanta. Ioane was playing at a high level at guard and center before the MCL sprain, and Jurgens arrived midseason. Stanley is 32 and on a deal through 2027, with a $24.0 million cap number next season.

Defense

Interior defensive line. Clay called it the league’s best in August. Nnamdi Madubuike has one sack in seven games after his neck injury; he didn’t take 11-on-11 reps in camp and missed the first two games. Travis Jones has six tackles for loss and no sacks, and Calais Campbell has one sack at 40. The run defense held up: 3.8 yards a carry allowed and a 30% run stop win rate, 12th. The pass rush from the middle hasn’t.

Edge. The defense has 17 sacks in nine games. Mike Green and Tavius Robinson lead the team with 3.5 each, and Robinson is out for the season. Trey Hendrickson has two in seven games at $28 million a year, first playing in a cast on a broken finger, then missing two games after finger surgery. Zion Young has held up against the run but has no sacks.

Linebackers. Roquan Smith has 74 tackles, two sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. Trenton Simpson has 57 tackles and an interception. Teddye Buchanan, back from his ACL, recovered Thursday’s fumble.

Cornerbacks. Corners were the concern in our preview, because Minter’s scheme asks them to cover without help. Marlon Humphrey has nine passes defensed and no interceptions, and played only 56% of the snaps in Buffalo. Nate Wiggins has four passes defensed in his third year and missed Thursday. Chris Olave beat Wiggins in Week 2, and Wiggins’ interference set Dallas up at the 2 in Rio. Tee Higgins’ 148 yards and Washington’s 50-yard touchdown were both against this group.

Safeties. Kyle Hamilton has 60 tackles, nine for loss, and an interception. Malaki Starks has 55 tackles and a forced fumble, including Thursday’s. Starks has not impacted games positively enough. Jaylinn Hawkins has played six of nine games. Hamilton bails the Ravens out repeatedly; he needs teammates to show up more consistently around him. Assuming / hoping Hamilton is back for the Chargers game, Minter might need to look at what the Ravens Defense did two years ago. At that point a struggling Ravens Defense pulled Hamilton deeper into coverage, vs. consistently keeping him at the LOS, and the defense improved. It might also keep Hamilton healthier.

Special teams

Tyler Loop was 13 of 17, perfect from 50 and beyond and 2 of 5 from 40 to 49, before going on injured reserve. Jake Moody made a 53-yarder in his debut. Ryan Eckley averages 47.6 yards a punt, 42.3 net, with 18 inside the 20, as a sixth-round rookie. Kick returns average 26.0 yards, but Rasheen Ali muffed one in Buffalo and Wester’s fumble Thursday led to a touchdown.

Lamar Jackson

Jackson will have surgery on his right thumb and is on injured reserve, so he will miss at least the Chargers, Carolina and Houston. His contract runs through 2027 at an $84.34 million cap number, and he holds most of the leverage on what comes next.

The injury history

This season he started the first four games, then a diving defender’s shoulder landed on the inside of his left ankle on Oct. 4 against Tennessee, per Ravens.com. The high ankle sprain cost him Atlanta, Cleveland and Cincinnati. He came back in Buffalo and lasted one snap: his right hand hit Greg Rousseau on the follow-through, per CBS Sports.

Minter said Jackson will have surgery and go on injured reserve, and that the injury is potentially season-ending, per NBC Sports. With the Week 13 bye, the earliest he can return is Dec. 13 against Tampa Bay, and the surgery makes later more likely, per Yahoo Sports. Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) said he is likely out for the season. The team has not given a diagnosis. Speaking generally, without having examined him, UofL Health hand surgeon Rodrigo Moreno said surgery for a ligament injury usually means six to 10 weeks of recovery, per [UofL Health](https://uoflhealth.org/news/lamar-jackson-thumb-2026/).

Here is the table from our Bengals review, with this season added:

That is four seasons out of the last six with four or more games missed. If he doesn’t play again this year, he will have appeared in 18 of a possible 34 regular-season games over 2025 and 2026.. In 2023 and 2024 he missed one, a rest game.

When he was on the field, he was playing as well as he ever has. In his four full games he completed 68 of 96 passes for 967 yards, six touchdowns and one interception, a 119.6 rating, per CBS Sports. Both the completion rate and the 10.1 yards a pass would be career highs.

Where the contract stands

Jackson signed a five-year, $260 million extension in 2023, at $52 million a year with a $72.5 million signing bonus, per ESPN. Owner Steve Bisciotti wanted a new deal before free agency in March. It didn’t happen, so the Ravens restructured the contract, clearing $39.96 million in 2026 cap room. His 2026 salary is now $1.3 million, with the rest in a $49.5 million bonus prorated through a voiding 2030 year, per The Banner, citing Spotrac.

The bill comes next year. His 2027 cap number is $84.34 million, the second highest in the league behind Patrick Mahomes. He also has a no-trade clause, and the Ravens can’t franchise or transition tag him when the deal ends after 2027.

The talks are not where the Ravens wanted them. The Ravens tried to negotiate an extension after Minter was hired, and Jackson balked, Albert Breer of SI.com reported, per Bleacher Report. Rapoport said he believes strongly that Jackson wants to stay in Baltimore long term, and that an extension is the top priority this offseason, per Ravens.com. In May, Jackson said he loves the organization and the city.

Without an extension, these are the paths, all per CBS Sports:

What an extension would likely look like

Bisciotti said in January that he hoped to “plug a new number into the same contract,” per The Banner. That points to the 2023 structure: five years, a record signing bonus and guarantees, with a higher average.

The number has moved since 2023. Mahomes reworked his deal in June to average $63.09 million, and Dak Prescott is at $60 million, per SI. Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford are among those at $55 million. Jackson’s $52 million ranked 10th among quarterbacks in March, per ESPN. Kansas City reworked Mahomes coming off a torn ACL and LCL, a worse injury than any Jackson has had, as CBS Sports’ Joel Corry pointed out.

So the reasonable starting point is at or above Mahomes. What matters for the Ravens is what share of the cap that takes, and the cap keeps moving.

The cap was $208.2 million in 2022 and is $301.2 million this year, up about 45%. The 2027 cap should land between $322.5 million and $327.5 million, per CBS Sports; Over The Cap uses $327 million and Spotrac runs as high as $352 million. Estimates past that have it at about $348 million to $355 million in 2028, $370 million to $375 million in 2029, about $400 million in 2030 and $420 million or more in 2031, driven by media-rights escalators.

By our arithmetic, his 2023 deal took 23.1% of that year’s $224.8 million cap. At $65 million a year, a new deal would be 19.9% of a $327 million cap; at $70 million, 21.4%. Mahomes’ average is 20.9% of this year’s cap. On those estimates, a $66 million average would be about 19% of the 2028 cap, 18% in 2029, 16.5% in 2030 and under 16% by 2031.

The other side of it is age and wear. He turns 30 in January. He has taken 1,234 hits since 2018, more than any other quarterback, per ESPN in March. Corry’s read is that none of his injuries are career-threatening, and the thumb was a freak play. Breer’s read is that Jackson holds a lot of the cards, and that he can reach an unfettered free agency in 2028 by doing nothing.

My previous take would have leaned toward being scared of an extension, with some of his injury history and his age. But given how much the cap has grown over the past five years, and the projections for the next five, that concern has been minimized.

What we think happens

We think Jackson signs an extension in the spring, around five new years at about $66 million a year. Neither side can live with the alternative.

For the Ravens, $84.34 million in 2027 makes building a roster around him close to impossible. Jeff Zrebiec called it untenable. Another restructure only moves the problem into 2028, when as much as $79.9 million could be dead money if he leaves, per CBS Sports. For Jackson, playing out the year means going into free agency at 31, after two straight seasons with significant time missed. Breer is right that he holds the cards. But the safest way to cash them is a record deal now, not a market bet in 2028. He said in May that he loves Baltimore. When asked if becoming the highest-paid player sounded good, he said, “It sounds good,” per ESPN.

The number would have to clear Mahomes. That’s $63.09 million a year by Spotrac’s math and $64 million by Over The Cap’s. We have him at about $66 million, roughly $330 million over five new years, with a signing bonus near Dak Prescott’s record $80 million. The 2023 deal took 27 months. This one won’t have that long, so it could still drift past the March deadline Bisciotti wants, the way the last one went to April. All of this is our projection, not a report.

What it would do to 2027, by our arithmetic:

The extension clears about $35 million in 2027 by turning his $52 million salary and bonus into a bonus spread over five years. It doesn’t get the Ravens under the cap by itself. Add a Roquan Smith trade or release, which saves $20.0 million in 2027 per our Over The Cap numbers, and they would sit roughly $9 million to $16 million under before the draft class and free agency. Smith isn’t the only path; Andrews, Henry and Campbell are the other candidates. Some combination is needed.

The bill moves to later years. The old void-year money doesn’t disappear; it lands in 2028 through 2030 as real years, starting at about $18 million in 2028. Add the new bonus and a rising salary, and Jackson’s 2028 cap hit would be somewhere in the $70 million range. That’s why the cap growth matters. At $66 million, the average is about 20% of a $327 million cap, below the 23.1% his 2023 deal took of that year’s cap. On the estimates above, his roughly $70 million 2028 hit would be about 20% of the cap, and the $66 million average falls to about 16.5% by 2030.

The Path To A 7 Seed

At 4-5, with Brissett starting and Jackson out until at least Dec. 13th, the Ravens get the 7th seed in about 3% to 8% of our simulations, depending on when Jackson returns. Last week, assuming Jackson back sooner, it was about 10% to 11%.

The method is the same as last week’s. Each remaining game rates both teams by their place in our Nov. 3rd power rankings, with the Ravens at their pre-injury place, 14th, and adds home field. The Ravens lose 6 points in every game without Jackson, how far the line moved when he was ruled out against Cincinnati. Every other AFC team plays out its season at the pace of our Nov. 3 win projections. We ran the rest of the season 200,000 times.

The 7th seed won 9 or 10 games in about eight of every 10 runs. From 4-5, that means 5-3 or 6-2 the rest of the way. The model’s most common finish is 8-9 if Jackson is back Dec. 13th, and 7-10 if he isn’t back at all.

The 6-point adjustment treats Brissett as a healthy backup, about where Huntley was, and the model doesn’t know about Hamilton’s hip. It also treats every other team’s games as independent of each other’s, which they aren’t.

Game by game, without Jackson, the Ravens are favored only against the Chargers, at about 61%. The two Pittsburgh games and the trip to Cincinnati are the hardest, at about 22% to 32%.

The Sunday Week 9 games aren’t in yet. Pittsburgh is on bye; Cincinnati, Cleveland, New England, Las Vegas and Houston all play.

As I said last week, there’s no pressure and zero expectations. I hate feeling like the season is over on Nov. 6th. The path is to beat the Chargers with Brissett coming off the mini-bye, keep fighting week to week, and hope Jackson’s thumb progresses better than expected. If he’s back for Cincinnati on Dec. 31st, that’s two games with him, at most.

The Trade Deadline

The deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10th, at 4 p.m. ET. The Ravens have already made the move they had to make, and clearly the rest of the week should be about 2027, not about chasing a minimal playoff chance.

Brissett

The Cardinals are finalizing the trade, expected this weekend, per Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport via ESPN. Compensation hasn’t been reported. Arizona converted $2.7 million of his remaining $5.4 million salary into a bonus before the deal, and because it wasn’t done before Thursday, Baltimore owes him a $2.43 million base salary, per ESPN, plus possible incentives. He reunites with quarterbacks coach Israel Woolfork, who coached him in Arizona last season and in Cleveland in 2022.

Two things don’t fit yet. Spotrac’s figures, via Cardinals On SI, had Baltimore taking on about $650,000 in salary; ESPN’s $2.43 million is the later report and the one we’re using. And $2.43 million is more than the roughly $1.9 million in room Over The Cap showed for the Ravens last week. Placing Jackson, Huntley and Loop on injured reserve doesn’t clear their salaries, so something else has to move.

Brissett is 33, 23-50 as a starter, and was third on Arizona’s depth chart a week ago. The trade gives the Ravens “a better chance of stabilizing the season than saving it,” per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley. That’s the right price for that.

What else is on the table

The first is from ESPN’s deadline survey; the rest are via Ravens.com. Hensley’s own read is that it wouldn’t be surprising if the Ravens stood pat.

Our published numbers still decide most of these. Only Roquan Smith frees meaningful 2027 space whenever he’s moved. Humphrey frees none: his contract voids after this season, and his $11.9 million 2027 charge is dead money either way. Andrews is the one where a trade beats a release, saving $3.5 million instead of costing $1.5 million, per Over The Cap. Henry is the new name, and his contract makes a deadline trade about the pick, not the cap. He counts $16.289 million in 2027: an $11 million salary, a $1 million roster bonus due in March and $4.289 million in bonus proration, with none of it guaranteed. Moving him before June 1 leaves $14.807 million in dead money and saves only $1.482 million; a release after June 1 saves $12.0 million, per Over The Cap.

How we’d handle it

• Don’t buy. Donte Jackson costs almost nothing, but neither does it change a 3% to 8% shot at the 7th seed. A seventh-round pick is fine; anything more isn’t.
• Sell only where the trade beats March. Andrews fits; the trade saves money a release wouldn’t. A veteran with no 2027 value to the Ravens, for a real pick, fits.
• Don’t sell the 2027 core for late picks. Smith, Hamilton, Starks, Green and the young linemen are the roster Jackson comes back to.
• Henry is the hard one. He is 32, the offense with Brissett runs through him, and he is the player most likely to bring back a real pick. Moving him would read as the white flag. Keeping him means paying for a season the model says is mostly gone.

Last week I said Smith, Humphrey, Andrews and Bateman were the only realistic names, and that even those were unlikely. I also don’t want to see this team become one of those playing out the string.

If the Ravens feel there is any chance of Jackson returning, I can’t see them moving Henry. If they’re convinced Jackson’s season is done, then moving Henry becomes something more to consider.

What’s Next: The Chargers

The Chargers come to M&T Bank Stadium on Monday, Nov. 16th, at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, Minter against the team he left in January. They are 0-7, 32nd in our rankings and last in FTN’s DVOA, and they host Houston on Sunday as 4.5-point underdogs.

• Their offense has gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown, behind our 30th-ranked offensive line. Justin Herbert has thrown an interception in all seven games.
• Their defense is still Minter’s built unit: our seventh-ranked defensive line, fourth in run stop win rate. That’s the matchup Brissett and Henry walk into.
• The model gives the Ravens about 61%, the only game left where it has them favored without Jackson.

We’ll do the full preview, with the line, injuries and ESPN’s number, next week.

The Questions

Fourteen questions, six about the rest of this season and eight about the offseason and 2027, with our thoughts on each.

The rest of 2026

1. What’s a realistic bar for Brissett? He is 23-50 as a starter and lost 16 of his last 19 starts, per ESPN. The bar isn’t 5-3. It’s an offense that can throw past 10 yards again, so we can finally evaluate Doyle’s scheme with a functioning quarterback.

2. Should Jackson come back if the season is gone by December? If he’s medically cleared and the Ravens are alive, yes. If they’re out of it by mid-December, then maybe there’s not enough to gain by further risking his health.

3. Who has to do more? Hendrickson, with two sacks in seven games at $28 million a year. Madubuike, a year removed from the neck injury. Stanley and Andrews, for the false starts as much as the play. Humphrey, in a scheme that asks its corners to win alone. At this point Andrews looks done, so asking him to do more probably isn’t realistic. Humphrey might still be able to help a team, but he can’t be asked to defend on an Island. Those days are done. The Ravens need Stanley to be at-least league average at LT. Huge issue if he’s not at that level. I’d like to see Travis Jones finish strong.

4. What should the last eight games be used for? Snaps for the players who will be here in 2027: Zion Young, Lane, Sarratt, Chandler Rivers, Hibner and Cuevas, and Ioane at whichever spot he projects to. And Moody’s four-game audition against Loop’s return.

5. Does the team fold or fight? Thursday, the defense held Jacksonville to two touchdown drives longer than 32 yards, and the offense gave away 16 points. A team that has quit doesn’t play that way on defense. We’ll find out more against the Chargers and in Pittsburgh.

6. Should Minter keep calling the defense? Eight more games is a fair test with the roster healthier on that side.

The offseason and 2027

7. Are the right people in the right chairs? Minter’s first year has been wrecked by the quarterback injuries, and one year like this shouldn’t settle a head coach. Doyle had Jackson at 10.1 yards a pass before the ankle. Ravens fans aren’t happy with Minter or DeCosta right now, I don’t think either is going anywhere anytime soon. This isn’t an organization that makes change for the sake of change. Before Minter, the Ravens only had 3 previous Head Coaches. I think a short-run for Minter would be 5 years. DeCosta has been with the Ravens forever, and was groomed for the GM spot for years under Ozzie Newsome. He’s closing in on a decade at the helm, and the Ravens haven’t won a Super Bowl; and now have several unfulfilling years. There is worry that the Ravens won’t have taken advantage of Jackson’s absolute prime. He’s still had several historically strong regular season teams, and I believe the complete backing of Ownership. I don’t see any scenario where his job is in jeopardy.

8. What’s the Jackson plan? We think it’s an extension in the spring: around five new years at about $66 million a year, clearing Mahomes. The alternative, an $84.34 million cap number with no tag and no trade without his approval, works for neither side. Breer reports Jackson balked last spring; Rapoport believes he wants to stay. The risk is timing. The 2023 deal ran into April, and every week past March limits what DeCosta can do in free agency. See the Jackson section.

9. What are the cap questions? Even with the extension we project, Jackson’s 2027 cap hit is about $49.6 million by our arithmetic, and the Ravens are still about $4 million to $11 million over a $327 million cap before filling the roster. The extension is step one, not the whole answer. Step two is a choice:

• Smith, at $32.7 million: a trade or release saves $20.0 million.
• Andrews, at $14.7 million: a trade saves $3.5 million, while a release costs $1.5 million.
• Henry, at $16.289 million: a release after June 1 saves $12.0 million, but a move before then saves only $1.482 million, per Over The Cap. Or Campbell.

Humphrey’s $11.9 million is dead money either way. The extension also moves about $18 million of old bonus money into 2028, so 2028 gets tighter as 2027 loosens. Two big numbers aren’t really options. Hendrickson counts $18.0 million in 2027, and $29 million of his 2027 money is guaranteed, so cutting him before June 1 would cost more cap than it saves, per Over The Cap. His decision year is 2028, at a $35.5 million cap number. Stanley’s final year carries a $24.0 million cap number at 33.

10. What does the roster need? Line depth, particularly a tackle plan (see below). Young edge rushers behind Green. A corner. A dependable WR opposite of Flowers, or Lane breaking out. A tight end to follow Andrews, unless Cuevas and Hibner are it. And a backup quarterback who can win games: Jackson has now missed significant time in four of the last six seasons. And if they trade Henry, they’ll need a RB.

11. Who protects Jackson’s blind side after Stanley? With Jurgens at center and Ioane at guard, the interior has its core. The tackles are the next decision. Stanley is 32 and turns 33 in March, with his share of the false starts and a $24.0 million cap number in 2027, the last year of his deal. Rosengarten is in his third year at right tackle, and Carson Vinson’s only start at left tackle came in Rio. Whether the next lineman is a tackle, and whether he comes in the first round, follows from that.

12. Who needs to be replaced? The cap answers part of this. If the extension still leaves the Ravens over, Smith or Andrews is the likeliest move, and moving Smith means replacing the defense’s most reliable player. Beyond that, Calais Campbell turns 41 next season, Humphrey’s contract voids, Stanley turns 33 in March, and Henry turns 33 in January. Not all of them go, but more than one has to.

13. Was Hendrickson the right fallback for Crosby? Four years and $112 million for a 31-year-old coming off surgery, after a deal for a younger rusher fell through on a physical. Two sacks in seven games so far. His $60 million in full guarantees, including a $20 million signing bonus, runs through 2027, so 2028, at a $35.5 million cap number, is when the Ravens could get out, per Over The Cap. I think it was the right call, there just hasn’t been quite enough production. He has generally brought pressure, even if the sacks aren’t there. Do also have to factor in the injury he’s playing through.

14. How much of the last two seasons was coaching? That was our preseason question. With the quarterback injuries, 2026 can’t answer it cleanly. Blown second-half leads were a problem under Harbaugh’s last staffs too, 10 double-digit leads lost since 2022, and they’ve continued under Minter’s. That points at the roster at least as much as the coaches.

Overall Thoughts

The Ravens are 4-5, have lost four straight, and are down to their fourth quarterback. Their chance at the 7th seed is somewhere between about 3% and 8%. This season was built on Jackson being available, and he has played 14 full quarters. Nothing that has happened since Oct. 4th is a fair test of the team DeCosta built or the staff Minter hired.

That cuts both ways. It means 2026 can’t condemn them. It also means it can’t clear them. Some problems were showing before the injuries piled up: fourth-quarter leads lost with Jackson on the field, a defense that gave up long third downs in September, and false starts no matter who was at quarterback. The last eight games are about seeing whether those get fixed, and finding out which young players are part of 2027.

Can 2027 be a Super Bowl year?

We think it can, but only if several things go right, and most of them are decisions, not luck.

1. Jackson is signed early. An extension around $66 million a year by March, not April. That turns an $84.34 million problem into about $49.6 million and lets DeCosta work free agency with the number known. When Jackson has played, he has played like an MVP candidate: 10.1 yards a pass this year.
2. The cap math gets finished. Even with the extension, the Ravens are about $4 million to $11 million over. One real veteran move, most likely Smith or Andrews, gets them under; Henry only helps after June 1. Hendrickson’s guarantees take him off the table until 2028, and Stanley’s $24.0 million final year is the other number to watch. More than that buys them a free agent who matters.
3. The trenches get fixed on purpose. Jurgens and Ioane are the interior. The next priorities are a tackle plan for life after Stanley, and edge rushers young enough to grow with Green. This is where three years of roster building has come up short.
4. The corners improve. Minter’s scheme asks its corners to cover without help. Clay graded the group a 5 in August, and it has played like one. Hamilton, Starks and Smith can’t cover for that every week.
5. The defense finds an identity. Year 2 under Minter should look different from big, soft zones and long third downs allowed.
6. The backup can win. Jackson has missed significant time in four of the last six seasons. A Ravens Super Bowl season would take Jackson staying on the field, and playing like an MVP when available. But you need a backup you believe can win multiple games.
7. The operation gets clean. A league-high 24 false starts and repeated fourth-quarter collapses are coaching problems the staff can fix with or without new players.

The young core is better than the record. Hamilton, Starks, Green, Ioane, Jurgens, Rosengarten, Flowers, Lane, Young, Cuevas and Hibner are all under contract. The question is whether enough of it is ready to carry a roster that would otherwise lean on Henry, Campbell, Hendrickson and Stanley, who will be 33, 41, 32 and 33 next season.

The AFC won’t wait. Buffalo, Jacksonville, Denver, Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England all have their quarterbacks in place.

For now, there are zero expectations. Show up and fight for eight more weeks here in ’26, find out who’s part of 2027, and get Jackson signed.

The post Resetting The Ravens At 4-5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

There are no unbeaten teams left. Detroit ran for 230 yards to hand Minnesota its first loss, 19-15, and Buffalo moved to the top of most outside rankings after a 36-10 win over Baltimore.

• Lamar Jackson lasted one snap. He hurt his right thumb on his first play back from the ankle injury and is headed for surgery and injured reserve. Backup Tyler Huntley left with a toe injury, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano finished the game.
• Tampa Bay won without completing a pass. Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3, the Buccaneers ran 56 times for a team-record 324 yards, and Atlanta lost 16-0 in the rain. It was the first game with zero completions since the 1974 Bills.
• Dallas blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead at home for the first time, losing 33-30 in overtime to an Arizona team that benched Jacoby Brissett for Gardner Minshew.
• Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns, ran for the winner in overtime and joined Norm Van Brocklin (1951) as the only quarterbacks with 450 passing yards, five touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in a game.
• Denver held Kansas City out of the end zone from inside the 5 in the final 35 seconds, ending with Malcolm Roach’s sack on the last play, to win 28-24 and take first in the AFC West.
• Jeffery Simmons had a sack in his Bears debut, and Chicago beat the defending champions 34-17 in Seattle on Monday night.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Recap

Lines are the ones we published last week.

Packers 27, Panthers 19 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Packers -3.5, 48.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: which bad line held up. Green Bay was 31st on our offensive line list and without both centers; Carolina was 30th on our defensive line list and without Taylor Moton.

What decided it: Green Bay’s front, not its line. The Packers sacked Bryce Young six times, one each from six players, and Carolina turned three takeaways into a single field goal. Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes while the Packers ran 26 times for 66 yards. Carolina played without Moton and left guard Damien Lewis.

Buccaneers 16, Falcons 0

Box score · Line: Buccaneers -2.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Buccaneers

Expected: Tampa Bay’s run game against an Atlanta front third in run stop win rate, and Michael Penix Jr.’s streak without an interception.

What decided it: the run game, in a driving rain. Tampa Bay ran 56 times for 324 yards, a team record: Bucky Irving had 170 and Kenny Gainwell 140. Mayfield threw three passes and completed none. Penix went 8 of 24 with four interceptions, two by Alex Anzalone in the first quarter.

Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 (OT)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -6.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Dallas’ run game (204 yards the week before) against a defense 29th in defensive DVOA, and Arizona’s red-zone trouble.

What decided it: neither held. Dallas ran 39 times for 93 yards. Arizona benched Brissett late in the third quarter, and Minshew went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Tyler Allgeier ran 11 times for 147 yards, all but 7 of his scrimmage yards after halftime. Dallas led 24-10 in the fourth quarter. Chad Ryland missed the go-ahead extra point with 6 seconds left, then won it from 42 yards in overtime.

Bills 36, Ravens 10

Box score · Our Ravens review · Line: Bills -3.5, 53.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: Jackson’s ankle, Buffalo off its bye, and Baltimore’s coverage.

What decided it: Jackson’s thumb. He was hurt on the first offensive snap, Huntley left in the second quarter, and Fagnano played the rest. Three quarterbacks combined for 68 net passing yards, Baltimore’s fewest since 2017. The Ravens trailed only 16-10 early in the third quarter; Buffalo then scored touchdowns on three of four possessions. Josh Allen threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns, ran for another and passed Jim Kelly for the Bills’ career touchdown record.

Steelers 27, Browns 6

Box score · Line: Steelers -3.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: first place in the AFC North, Cleveland’s league-worst 10.6% sack rate, and Deshaun Watson’s late-game finishes.

What decided it: the lines. Pittsburgh sacked Watson eight times, two by T.J. Watt, and ran 33 times for 200 yards; Jaylen Warren had 143. Cleveland ran 15 times for 34. It was the Steelers’ 23rd straight regular-season home win over the Browns.

Jaguars 42, Colts 7

Box score · Line: Jaguars -8.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Daniel Jones, and Jacksonville off its bye without Anton Harrison.

What decided it: Jones. He threw two interceptions, one returned 92 yards for a touchdown by Rayuan Lane before halftime, and was benched for Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter. Trevor Lawrence went 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns. The cost was nose tackle DaVon Hamilton, carted off with a right knee injury.

Raiders 38, Jets 33

Box score · Line: Raiders -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Jets

Expected: the Jets at home against a Raiders defense that had allowed 30-plus points four straight weeks.

What decided it: the Raiders allowed 30-plus again and won anyway. The Jets scored on their first six possessions and Braelon Allen ran for 147 yards. Kirk Cousins went 19 of 26 for 247 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a fourth; Dylan Laube returned a kickoff 95 yards. Jeremy Chinn’s end-zone interception ended it.

Lions 19, Vikings 15

Box score · Line: Lions -3.5, 46.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: Minnesota’s defense, first in points allowed, against Jared Goff, and a Vikings offense with 10 touchdowns in six games.

What decided it: Detroit’s run game. The Lions ran 39 times for 230 yards, 164 after halftime, against a defense that had been allowing under 100 a game; Jahmyr Gibbs had 153. Kevin O’Connell punted on fourth-and-5 from his own 33 with 3:01 left, and Detroit never gave the ball back. Linebacker Jack Campbell was taken to a hospital with a neck injury.

Bengals 43, Titans 36 (OT)

Box score · Line: Bengals -10, 46.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Burrow against a defense last in defensive DVOA, and Tony Pollard.

What decided it: Burrow, both ways. He went 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, was intercepted three times by Amani Hooker, tied it with 1:17 left and ran 9 yards for the winner in overtime. Pollard ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns, and Cam Ward threw for 304, his career high. Tennessee led 13-0 in the first quarter and 36-29 with 3:42 left.

Rams 24, Chargers 9

Box score · Line: Rams -6.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: the Rams’ run game, first in run block win rate, against an 0-6 team off its bye, and Justin Herbert’s interceptions.

What decided it: Herbert’s two interceptions, by Quentin Lake and Trent McDuffie, which the Rams turned into 10 points. The Rams had no first down until late in the first half and trailed 9-3, then scored on three touchdown drives. The Chargers ran 25 times for 64 yards and have not scored a touchdown in two games.

Broncos 28, Chiefs 24

Box score · Line: Chiefs -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: a Kansas City offense that scored 3 points without both starting tackles, Denver’s pass rush, and whether Rashee Rice returned.

What decided it: the last two minutes. Rice and tackle Jaylon Moore were back, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns as Kansas City led 24-13 early in the fourth. Harrison Butker missed from 54 yards, and Denver scored two plays later on Jonah Coleman’s 51-yard catch and 5-yard run. On fourth-and-goal from the 1, a Moore false start wiped out a touchdown to Rice, and Roach sacked Mahomes on the replay.

Patriots 24, Dolphins 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Malik Willis and Miami’s red-zone efficiency against a Patriots defense that had slipped.

What decided it: the second half. Miami led 13-3 at halftime, and New England outscored it 21-0 after. Drake Maye went 16 of 20 for 199 yards, with touchdown passes of 43 and 48 yards, and ran for a third, without A.J. Brown or TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots sacked Willis five times; Miami ran 23 times for 74 yards without left guard Kadyn Proctor.

Commanders 27, Eagles 10 (Sunday night)

Box score · Line: Commanders -5.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Commanders

Expected: Tanner McKee on a five-game losing streak against Washington off its bye, without Terry McLaurin.

What decided it: Washington’s defense after a sloppy first quarter. The Eagles led 10-0; Washington then scored 27 straight points. The Commanders sacked McKee five times and held Philadelphia to 91 rushing yards. Jayden Daniels threw for 217 yards and won as a starter for the first time since Oct. 5, 2025. McLaurin is out for the season.

Bears 34, Seahawks 17 (Monday night)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 46.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Seattle’s front, first on our defensive line list, against a Chicago line just outside our top 8, and Caleb Williams’ two straight 300-yard games.

What decided it: Chicago won up front on both sides. Williams threw for 247 yards with no turnovers and one sack, D’Andre Swift ran for three touchdowns, and the opening drive went 17 plays for a touchdown. Simmons had a sack in his debut. Seattle converted 1 of 11 third downs and ran for 81 yards in its first game with Quenton Nelson.

Power Rankings

The 49ers stay first through their bye. They lead FTN’s DVOA, have our No. 1 offensive line, and add DeForest Buckner up front. Buffalo is a close second, and Jacksonville jumps four spots to third.

*NFL.com’s Week 9 rankings were not up at build time; this column is Nate Davis’s USA Today rankings (Nov. 3). DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 8; ESPN and Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) are their Week 9 lists.

• 49ers (1): first in DVOA and on our offensive line list. Buckner returns for Raiders week.
• Bills (2): No. 1 for ESPN, Prisco, PFT and Fox. Our No. 2 offensive line, but the defensive line is 22nd.
• Jaguars (7): second in DVOA after the 42-7 win, with a three-game division lead. Losing DaVon Hamilton hurts the middle of a run defense already 32nd in run stop win rate.
• Broncos (8): 15 straight wins in one-score games. Our No. 3 defensive line.
• Bears (9): the Seattle win was their best game by DVOA (FTN). Seventh on our offensive line list; Simmons should lift a defensive line that is 20th.
• Chiefs (5): two straight losses. Fourth on our offensive line list, 28th on the defensive one; one elite line and one weak leaves them on results alone.
• Vikings (3): first loss. Their offense is 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff), and their offensive line is 16th.
• Bengals (6): third in DVOA but 15th on defense, and needed overtime against a 1-7 team.
• Patriots (10): up one. Both lines are in our top 8 (fifth on offense, eighth on defense).
• Steelers (12): up two. Both lines are in our top 8 (eighth on offense, sixth on defense), and they lead the AFC North at 6-2.
• Lions (11): beat Minnesota with a 230-yard run game. Sixth on our offensive line list, 26th in defensive DVOA.
• Seahawks (4): down eight. Three losses in four games, and a run game that managed 81 yards in Nelson’s debut.
• Rams (13): two straight wins, seventh in DVOA. Third on our offensive line list.
• Buccaneers (18): up four. Fifth in DVOA and first on defense, with two straight wins by a combined 59-13.
• Packers (17): 5-3 and up two, but held below their record: both lines are in our bottom 12 (31st on offense, 21st on defense).
• Browns (15): sacked eight times in Pittsburgh. Our worst offensive line and our fourth-best defensive line.
• Giants (19): on bye, still alone in first in the NFC East.
• Panthers (21): lead the NFC South at 3-4, but they lost Moton and Damien Lewis up front.
• Falcons (16): shut out in the rain, with Penix’s four interceptions. Down three.
• Ravens (14): down six. Jackson is headed to injured reserve, and Fagnano may start Thursday.
• Raiders (23): snapped a four-game skid. Their defense has allowed 30-plus five straight weeks (ESPN).
• Texans (22): on bye. 14th in DVOA, ahead of their 2-5 record.
• Cardinals (29): up six after the win in Dallas. Minshew is expected to start (Prisco).
• Cowboys (20): down four. Their defense is last in EPA per play (Barnwell) and their run game managed 93 yards.
• Commanders (25): first win in more than a month (AP). They lost Daron Payne for the season (Ringer Staff).
• Saints (26): on bye. Our offensive line is 18th; the defense is 30th in DVOA.
• Jets (27): down two. Scored on six straight drives and still lost.
• Eagles (24): down four. Six straight losses.
• Colts (28): down one. Jones was benched in Jacksonville days after the Nelson and Buckner trades.
• Dolphins (30): led New England 13-3 at halftime, then were shut out the rest of the way.
• Titans (31): took Cincinnati to overtime in their first game without Simmons.
• Chargers (32): 0-7, no touchdowns in two games, and last in DVOA.

Offensive Lines

San Francisco and Buffalo hold the top two spots. Detroit (14th to sixth) and Chicago (ninth to seventh) move in; Cincinnati and Dallas drop out.

Win rates are ESPN’s season figures (league rank in parentheses). Sack rate and yards per carry are measured against the average of the defenses each line has faced. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

• Out: Bengals (to ninth) and Cowboys (to 17th; 2.4 yards a carry against Arizona).
• First out: Bengals, Colts, Broncos. The Colts are 10th on the numbers but traded Quenton Nelson last week.
• Lions: ran for 230 yards against a Minnesota defense that had been allowing under 100 a game (AP).
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate; Caleb Williams was sacked once in Seattle.
• Bills: held at two with tackle Spencer Brown out Sunday. His status for Minnesota is the one to watch.
• Charting against results: Packers (last in pass block win rate, 2.9 yards a carry) at 5-3, and Browns (32nd; an 11.6% sack rate after eight sacks in Pittsburgh) at 5-3.
• Watch in Week 9: Seattle’s line with Nelson at left guard; Carolina without Moton and Lewis against Denver’s No. 3 defensive line.

Full order

Defensive Lines

Seattle and Minnesota stay one and two. Denver climbs five spots to third, and Pittsburgh (15th to sixth) and New England (14th to eighth) move in; Atlanta and Baltimore drop out.

Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 8 (negative is better).

• Out: Falcons (to ninth; gave up 324 rushing yards in Tampa) and Ravens (to 12th).
• First out: Falcons, Buccaneers (first in defensive DVOA), Lions.
• Steelers: eight sacks of Watson; they lead the league with 26 (Prisco).
• Broncos: two sacks of Mahomes in the final three minutes, including the one that ended the game.
• Browns: held at fourth on the numbers. Maliek Collins hurt his elbow; watch his status.
• 49ers: 13th on the numbers with Nick Bosa still out. Buckner plays his first game back Sunday; we’ll judge them after it.
• Bears: 20th, with one game of Simmons. Same approach: one game is not enough to move them.
• Jaguars: 19th and without DaVon Hamilton, but fifth in defensive DVOA.
• Giants: 18th on the numbers, second in pass rush win rate. Still not restored on win rate alone after the Burns injury.

Full order

Win Totals

Five of the six calls most likely to move did move. Denver now shares the AFC West projection with Kansas City, Detroit closed within a game of Minnesota, and Chicago pulled level with the Vikings. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 120 wins and the tie already banked.

• AFC seeds: Bills and Jaguars, then the AFC North and AFC West winners; wild cards are the two division runners-up and the Patriots. First out: the Browns.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, then the NFC North winner, Giants and the NFC South winner; wild cards are the NFC North runner-up, the Lions, and the Packers or Seahawks. First out: whichever of Green Bay and Seattle misses.
• Ties not projected: Buffalo and Jacksonville for the AFC top seed; Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for the AFC North; Kansas City and Denver for the AFC West; Minnesota and Chicago for the NFC North; Carolina and Tampa Bay for the NFC South; Green Bay and Seattle for the last NFC spot.
• Kansas City reversal: first team out in August; now 11-6 and tied with Denver for the AFC West after two straight losses.
• What moved in Week 8: up one each, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Lions, Broncos, Commanders, Bears, Steelers (Jackson’s injury; they play Baltimore twice) and Jaguars; down one each, Panthers, Falcons, Cowboys, Vikings, Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens and Colts.
• Ravens: 8-9 assumes Jackson misses about a month; it moves if his timeline does.

Calls most likely to move after Week 9: Bills 12-5 at Vikings 12-5 (Monday); Jaguars 12-5 at Ravens 8-9 (Thursday); Packers 10-7 at Patriots 10-7; Buccaneers 8-9 at Bears 12-5 (Sunday night); Broncos 11-6 at Panthers 8-9; Giants 9-7-1 at Eagles 5-12.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen has played the best through eight weeks. This checkpoint covers Weeks 5 through 8, and the list ranks play this season, not reputation. How we tier the starters on talent follows the list.

Who has played the best through Week 8

QBR is ESPN’s season Total QBR. The NFL.com QB Index (Nick Shook) and the CBS Sports QB Power Rankings are both from Oct. 28, before the Week 8 games. Mike Sando’s QB Tiers for The Athletic are the preseason edition from Aug. 4, the only one this season.

• Allen: led the league in EPA per dropback and total touchdowns entering Week 8 (CBS), then threw for 289 yards and accounted for three touchdowns against Baltimore.
• Burrow: 462 yards and six total touchdowns Sunday. The three interceptions keep him behind Allen.
• Purdy: first in QBR, while playing without as many as six receivers.
• Williams: no turnovers in his three games back. The shortest sample on the list.
• Goff: opened the season with 223 throws without an interception, the most through six games in NFL history (CBS). QBR has him 13th; the rest of the evidence has him higher.
• Lawrence: 14 touchdown passes in six games, then three more on 14 throws against Indianapolis.
• Maye: 14 total touchdowns in October, and Sunday’s win came without A.J. Brown.
• Prescott: sixth in QBR, but held under 200 yards in Sunday’s loss.
• First out: C.J. Stroud (seventh in QBR, fourth in the Index, 15th at CBS), then Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love.
• Lamar Jackson is off this list after playing one snap since Week 4; he is headed to injured reserve after thumb surgery.

How we tier the starters

This is our read on talent and body of work, not this season alone. The season can move a quarterback one tier at a four-week checkpoint, and four moved at this one.

• Elite (the reason you win): Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson (injured reserve)
• Excellent: Prescott, Goff, Love, Purdy, Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Maye, Stafford
• Can Win With: Herbert, Stroud, Nix, Cousins, Darnold, Jayden Daniels, Young
• Below Average: Mayfield, Rodgers, Penix, Shough, Murray, Watson
• Bad (a reason you lose): Geno Smith, Ward, Willis, Daniel Jones
• Maye up to Excellent: his form held for the whole stretch, and he has produced without his top receiver.
• Stafford down to Excellent: he was the MVP last season, but he has thrown for under 225 yards in three straight games and ranks 12th or 13th on every in-season list.
• Herbert down to Can Win With: everyone agrees on the talent. His line and supporting cast have been poor, but a quarterback of his ability should lift the players around him, and he has thrown an interception in all seven games.
• Jones down to Bad: benched in the fourth quarter in Jacksonville and 29th in QBR.
• Love above Purdy: Love has more talent; Purdy has run Kyle Shanahan’s system as well as anyone.
• Not tiered: Jalen Hurts (out for the season) and the replacement starters, J.J. McCarthy, Tanner McKee, Gardner Minshew and, if he replaces Jones, Anthony Richardson, until they have played a full checkpoint.

Week 9 Preview

Fifteen games, starting Thursday in Baltimore and including Cincinnati and Atlanta in Madrid. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye.

Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video)

Line: Jaguars -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 80.9%

Key to the Game: Baltimore’s quarterback. Jackson is headed to injured reserve and Huntley is awaiting an MRI on his toe, so undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano will get his first start on four days’ rest. Baltimore Jacksonville has its own short-week problem in the middle, without nose tackle DaVon Hamilton.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network)

Line: Bengals -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Bengals 77.3%

Key to the Game: whether Michael Penix Jr.’s four interceptions in the rain were a one-off. Atlanta had scored the most points per game in the league since he returned in Week 3 (ESPN). Cincinnati’s defense is 15th in defensive DVOA and may be without cornerback DJ Turner II.

Our Pick: Bengals.

Browns at Saints (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Saints -2.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Saints 62.6%

Key to the Game: Cleveland’s defensive line, fourth on our list, against a Saints line that is 18th. The Browns’ O-line is 32nd after eight sacks in Pittsburgh, and New Orleans comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Browns. Against the line and the model, with low confidence: Cleveland is 22nd in DVOA to New Orleans’ 29th, and its front should decide a low-scoring game.

Cowboys at Colts (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Cowboys -6, 51.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 61.2%

Key to the Game: an Indianapolis team that traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner and benched Daniel Jones in the fourth quarter Sunday, against a Dallas defense that is last in EPA per play (Barnwell). Who starts at quarterback for the Colts, and whether Jonathan Taylor is still on the roster, both matter.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Broncos at Panthers (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Broncos -3, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 63.5%

Key to the Game: Denver’s defensive line, third on our list, against a Carolina line that is 26th and was without Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis on Thursday. Denver is 10 for 48 on third down over its last four games (AP), all wins.

Our Pick: Broncos.

Lions at Dolphins (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Lions -7, 50.5 · ESPN: Lions 77.7%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s injuries on defense. Linebacker Jack Campbell went to a hospital with a neck injury, and Brian Branch, DJ Wonnum and D.J. Reed were also hurt Sunday. Miami’s run game struggled without left guard Kadyn Proctor.

Our Pick: Lions.

Rams at Commanders (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 72.5%

Key to the Game: the Rams’ offensive line, third on our list, against a Washington front without Daron Payne. Matthew Stafford has thrown for under 225 yards in three straight games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Giants at Eagles (1:00 p.m., Fox)

Line: Giants -3.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Giants 54.0%

Key to the Game: J.J. McCarthy’s second start after a bye, against an Eagles defense that has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in every game (Fox). Philadelphia has lost six straight.

Our Pick: Giants. Low confidence: a road division game for a quarterback with one start for this team.

Jets at Chiefs (1:00 p.m.)

Line: Chiefs -9.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 80.4%

Key to the Game: Kansas City’s run game, with Kenneth Walker III at 3.0 yards a carry over two straight losses (CBS), against a Jets run defense that has been 31st since Week 3 (ESPN). Braelon Allen has three 100-yard games for New York.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Texans at Chargers (4:05 p.m.)

Line: Texans -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Texans 61.6%

Key to the Game: a Chargers offense that has gone 27 straight drives without a touchdown, behind our 30th-ranked line, against Houston’s No. 5 defensive line off a bye.

Our Pick: Texans.

Cardinals at Seahawks (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: Seahawks -11.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 81.8%

Key to the Game: Arizona’s health. Minshew is expected to start (Prisco), Jeremiyah Love re-injured his ankle and Bam Knight left with a concussion. Seattle needs its run game, 81 yards on Monday, to show up behind Quenton Nelson.

Our Pick: Seahawks.

Packers at Patriots (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: Patriots -3, 46.5 · ESPN: Patriots 57.2%

Key to the Game: New England has both lines in our top 8; Green Bay’s offensive line is 31st and its run game is the league’s worst. Micah Parsons is practicing (Prisco), and A.J. Brown’s knee is the Patriots’ question.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Raiders at 49ers (4:25 p.m., Fox)

Line: 49ers -10, 51.5 · ESPN: 49ers 84.3%

Key to the Game: DeForest Buckner’s first game back in San Francisco, against a Raiders defense that has allowed 30-plus points five straight weeks (ESPN) and is 31st on our defensive line list.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Buccaneers at Bears (Sunday night, 8:20 p.m., NBC)

Line: Bears -4.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Bears 59.8%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, 582 yards over two weeks, against a Chicago front 26th in run stop win rate that lost Grady Jarrett to a groin injury Monday. The Buccaneers are fifth in DVOA, the Bears 13th.

Our Pick: Bears.

Bills at Vikings (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC)

Line: Bills -3.5, 46.5 · ESPN: Bills 60.6%

Key to the Game: Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense, second on our list, against Josh Allen, and whether Kyler Murray’s offense, 28th in points per drive (Ringer Staff), can score enough to matter.

Our Pick: Bills.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Sacks picked the winners. The team with more sacks won 10 of the 14 games. The exceptions were Tampa Bay, which threw three passes, plus Arizona, Detroit and Cincinnati; two of those needed overtime.
2. Five teams won after trailing by 10 or more: Arizona (down 17-3), Cincinnati (13-0), Denver (24-13), New England (13-3) and Washington (10-0). The Raiders also came back from nine down at halftime.
3. The run game still mattered. The team with more rushing yards won 10 of 14, from Tampa Bay’s 324 to Detroit’s 230 against the league’s best defense by points allowed.

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Lamar Jackson lasted one offensive play. He left with a right thumb injury. Tyler Huntley followed in the second quarter with a right toe injury, and Joe Fagnano played the rest of the way. He was the first emergency third quarterback used by any team this season, per Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet).

At this point there is no pressure on the Ravens the rest of this season.

If Jackson can get back in time, maybe they can still fight for the 7th spot.

But zero expectations.

EDIT: @jeffzrebiec Minter said thumb injury is potentially season ending for Lamar Jackson.

What Happened

Buffalo scored on its first possession. Josh Allen hit Khalil Shakir for 26 on third-and-6 and 18 more to the 5, a replay review took a Shakir touchdown back to the 1, and Allen scored from there. It was 7-0 with 10:10 left in the first quarter.

Jackson’s first pass, short right for Zay Flowers, fell incomplete, and he was hurt on the play. Huntley finished the drive, a three-and-out. Tyler Bass kicked a 56-yard field goal for 10-0.

The Ravens got even on the defense’s first takeaway. Broderick Washington intercepted Allen at the Buffalo 17, Derrick Henry ran 12 yards to the 5, and after an encroachment penalty Henry scored from the 2. It was 10-7 with 3:18 left in the first quarter.

Buffalo turned it over on downs at the Ravens 37 to open the second quarter, but two plays into the Ravens’ next drive, Cole Bishop strip-sacked Huntley, and Buffalo recovered at the Ravens 20. Huntley did not take another snap. The Ravens held at the goal line, with Allen losing 3 on third-and-goal from the 1, and Bass kicked a 22-yarder for 13-7.

Fagnano came in with 9:39 left in the half. Rasheen Ali returned the kickoff 59 yards, and Fagnano completed passes of 15 to Josh Cuevas and 13 to Ja’Kobi Lane to the Buffalo 7. He was sacked for 9 on the next play, threw two incompletions, and Tyler Loop’s 34-yard try hit the left upright.

Roquan Smith forced a DJ Moore fumble at the Ravens 21 at the two-minute warning, and T.J. Tampa recovered. Three plays after an offside penalty gave the Ravens a first down, Igbinosun intercepted Fagnano’s pass for Flowers and returned it to the Ravens 33. Bass kicked a 51-yarder with 9 seconds left. It was 16-7 at the half.

The Ravens opened the third quarter with their best drive. Fagnano found Rashod Bateman for 22, Ed Oliver added 15 for roughing the passer, and a low block on Buffalo put the ball at the 28. Henry ran 10 yards for a touchdown, but Ronnie Stanley was called for holding, and Loop kicked a 26-yard field goal instead. It was 16-10.

Buffalo answered in six plays. Allen threw 49 yards to Moore to the Ravens 5, and James Cook scored. Allen hit Dalton Kincaid for 40 early in the fourth quarter and Moore for an 11-yard touchdown, his 259th career touchdown pass including the playoffs, which moved him past Jim Kelly for the franchise record, per the Bills (@BuffaloBillsPR); the two-point try failed. After the Ravens went for it and missed on fourth-and-3 at their own 44, Allen found Kincaid for 23 yards and a touchdown, 36-10 with 5:58 left. The Ravens’ last drive ended on an aborted snap by Fagnano at the Buffalo 48.

The Offense

Three quarterbacks threw 26 passes for 68 net yards, the Ravens’ fewest since the 2017 London loss to Jacksonville. Jackson was 0 for 1 on his only snap. Huntley was 2 of 4 for no yards, was sacked once and lost a fumble. Fagnano was 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception, was sacked three times and lost the fumble on an aborted snap. The Ravens turned it over three times.

Flowers was targeted five times and didn’t catch a pass. Justice Hill caught 4 of 8 targets for 20 yards; Bateman’s 22-yarder was the longest completion, and Mark Andrews caught 3 for 14.

The run game was the one part that held up. Henry ran 11 times for 53 yards, 4.8 a carry, and scored, and the Ravens averaged 4.0 a carry as a team. Henry’s 10-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter was wiped out by Stanley’s holding penalty, and the Ravens kicked a field goal instead.

They converted 3 of 13 third downs and missed on their only fourth down. In the red zone they scored one touchdown in three trips: Henry’s run, Loop’s miss off the upright, and the field goal after Stanley’s hold.

Andrew Vorhees started at right guard next to Cam Jurgens, with Emery Jones Jr. inactive. The Ravens allowed four sacks, one of Huntley and three of Fagnano. Carson Vinson reported as an extra eligible lineman once, on a 1-yard Henry run in the second quarter.

The line play wasn’t good, but I’m not sure how you directly evaluate anything with the QB injuries

Ioane getting healthy would obviously help.

Jurgens didn’t look particularly good, but he’s a 2x Pro Bowler that just turned 27.  Presumably he’ll be better.

Stanley is 32 with a lot of games behind him. Where does he rank amongst LT’s at this point?
Rosengarten is in his 3rd year.  You’d like to see him finish strong, and not believe RT is an issue going forward.

The Defense

For a half, the defense kept the Ravens in it. Buffalo had 16 points but one touchdown: the Ravens took the ball away twice, stopped a fourth down at their 37, and held from the 3-yard line to force a field goal. Washington’s interception and Smith’s forced fumble, recovered by Tampa, were the Ravens’ first takeaways in a loss this season.

The second half went the way of the last two. Buffalo scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions, on drives of 77, 65 and 43 yards. Allen’s three longest completions all came after halftime: 49 yards to Moore, 40 to Kincaid and the 23-yard touchdown to Kincaid.

Allen finished 21 of 34 for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and ran seven times for 30 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid caught 4 passes for 86 yards, Moore 4 for 82 and Shakir 5 for 64. Cook ran 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown, which extends the streak Jamison Hensley cited coming in: 22 straight games without a 100-yard running back against the Ravens.

The Ravens sacked Allen once, a sack split by Mike Green and Nnamdi Madubuike. Smith led the team with 11 tackles and Malaki Starks had 10. Tampa, back from injured reserve, made three tackles along with the fumble recovery.

Generally the Ravens defense was fine today given who they were facing and their own QB injuries.
Buffalo’s a high quality offense. The Ravens defense was always going to need help from their offense to help contain the Bills offense.
Jackson’s injury immediately eliminated any real offensive help.

The Ravens gave up 426 yards, but that’s going to happen when you’re giving Allen that many chances.
The Ravens did hold Buffalo to 4 of 14 on 3rd down – unfortunately Buffalo was 4 of 5 on 4th down.

Penalties And Special Teams

The Ravens were penalized seven times for 38 yards, Buffalo ten times for 87.

• Ravens: Stanley’s false start and his holding call on Henry’s touchdown run; Flowers’ false start at the Buffalo 5; Humphrey’s and Madubuike’s defensive holds, the second adding 4 yards to Cook’s fourth-down conversion at the 11; and K’Von Wallace’s illegal block on the final kickoff of the half.
• Buffalo: Oliver’s roughing the passer and Terrel Bernard’s low block set up the Ravens’ field goal drive; James Cook’s chop block cost Buffalo 15 yards before the half.

Loop made 1 of 2 field goals, missing from 34 off the left upright and making from 26. His opening kickoff went out of bounds, giving Buffalo the ball at its 40 for the first touchdown drive. Bass made all three of his tries, from 56, 22 and 51.  Loop is now 13 of 17 on the year.  He’s 5 of 5 from 50+, and he’s 4 of 8 from 30-49 yards.

Ryan Eckley punted five times for a 49.8 average, two inside the 20. Rasheen Ali returned five kickoffs for 147 yards, including a 59-yarder that set up Fagnano’s first drive; he muffed one in the third quarter and recovered it.

The Questions Coming In

Leadership. The week after Cincinnati was about who leads this team. Minter said the Ravens were still working through who grabs everyone on the sideline when a game turns, asking, “Who is that person? Who are those players?” per Ravens.com. Derrick Henry said he hadn’t done a good enough job leading, and Ronnie Stanley said he needs to be more vocal, per FOX45. Leadership doesn’t show up in a box score. What does show up is whether the Ravens held together when Buffalo made its run. In Buffalo, it was 16-10 early in the third quarter, and the Bills scored three touchdowns in their next four possessions. Leadership matters, but generally I think it’s one the of things people point to when things don’t go right between the lines.  Jackson had missed the previous couple of games, and was out of this game after his first snap. The O-Line has been in-flux. The D-Line has regularly got pressure this year, but hasn’t gotten to opposing QBs enough. The Secondary has been burned several times. Are these examples of a lack of leadership and/or character, or are they examples of not enough talent on the roster? For what you can glean (not much) through watching a team through TV, I thought the Ravens continued to compete today even when it was clear what direction this game was headed. That points to some level of cohesiveness and ‘leadership’ in my opinion.

The second half. The Ravens came in plus-65 in first halves and minus-70 in second halves, and without a second-half point in two weeks. Buffalo’s defense came in allowing 1.5 touchdowns per fourth quarter, the worst rate for any defense since at least 1977, per ESPN. Today put one team’s late-game problem against the other’s. The Ravens scored 3 points after halftime, their first second-half points in three games. Buffalo scored 20, 13 of them in the fourth quarter. Again, given the QB injuries, how do you evaluate anything from today?  The next time the Ravens are ‘healthy’ and have a 2nd half lead, we can review how they perform.

The defense. The Ravens had three interceptions in seven games coming in, and no takeaways in their three losses. BSL Ravens Analyst Jamie Sieck asked this week whether Minter’s defense is too passive and too reliant on zone in big spots, and whether calling the defense as a first-year Head Coach is too much. Two pregame markers from ESPN: Baltimore was first in EPA allowed on play-action, against a Bills offense that uses play-action at the fourth-highest rate (Week 8 preview), and the Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 21 straight games, per Jamison Hensley. In Buffalo the Ravens got two takeaways, Allen threw for 289 yards with an interception, and Cook was held to 80 yards. As I said above, I think the defense was fine today given the circumstances around them. Regarding Jamie’s question about Minter calling games as the Head Coach? I brought this up as a question in our season previews, but found after review that a HC calling plays was more prevalent league wide than I had anticipated. This is supposed to be his strength, I wouldn’t run from it, unless you (the Ravens Front Office) thought it was so tasking, that it was causing Minter to have errors in judgement with situational calls, or his defensive play calling.

Jackson. Since 2019 the Ravens are 76-35 with Jackson and 7-14 without him, and this season they scored 14 touchdowns in his 14 quarters and five in the 14 without him, per ESPN. Entering today, he was averaging 10.1 yards a pass to Huntley’s 6.9. In Buffalo he lasted one snap, an incompletion, and left with the thumb injury. I’ve seen Ravens fans online again calling him soft.  I presume he either broke his thumb or tore a ligament. I’m not sure why anyone would expect him to stay in the game with those injuries to his throwing hand.  I saw one person on X with a decent size following suggest the injury was an example of what happens to a running QB with his cumulative amount of carries. That’s a ridiculous comment as there is no correlation between this freak occurrence of hitting his hand on a DL’s helmet with him also having a history of running.

Buffalo at home. The Bills had beaten the Ravens three straight times in Buffalo, and Josh Allen came in 8-0 in his career after a bye, per Ravens.com. Make it four straight, and Allen 9-0. This was the Ravens first visit to the Bills new Stadium. The Bills are a Super Bowl caliber team, even with their defensive questions. It felt like the Ravens had an opportunity today, even with their QB injuries. Presumably Buffalo lost some focus / intensity when Jackson went out. Maybe they would have won regardless. It feels like the Ravens would have had a reasonable chance to win today had Jackson stayed available.

Week 9: Jacksonville At Baltimore

The Ravens host Jacksonville on Thursday, Nov. 5, at 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium, on Prime Video, four days after Buffalo. As of Sunday morning, before the injuries, the Ravens were 3-point favorites at DraftKings, and ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gave them a 47.8% chance to win. Both numbers will likely move.

The Jaguars came into today 4-2, leading the AFC South by 2.5 games over Indianapolis and Houston, both 2-5, after their Week 7 bye. Tennessee is 1-6. They beat Indianapolis 42-7 on Sunday and are 5-2. Lawrence completed 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns, one to the recently benched Brian Thomas Jr., and Rayuan Lane returned an interception 92 yards for a touchdown, per AP. Liam Coen is in his second season; Jacksonville went 13-4 last year and won its final eight regular-season games, per NBC News. Grant Udinski is the offensive coordinator and Anthony Campanile the defensive coordinator, per Jaguars.com.

In our Week 8 rankings the Jaguars were seventh overall and third in DVOA, with an 11-6 projection that wins the AFC South. The Ravens were 14th and 15th in DVOA, projected 9-8 and the first team out of the AFC field, tied with Cleveland.

How Jacksonville got to 5-2

Through six games, before today’s game against Indianapolis, Jacksonville had scored 154 points, eighth in the league, and allowed 104, third fewest, per Pro Football Reference. Both losses were one-score games. In the Houston loss, Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted C.J. Stroud; a too-many-men penalty was Jacksonville’s third straight week of costly flags, per our Week 6 review.

When Jacksonville has the ball

Entering today, Lawrence had completed 120 of 184 passes for 1,480 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, and had been sacked 10 times, per Pro Football Reference. Fourteen touchdown passes in six games is a career first for him, per Jaguars.com.

Entering today, Parker Washington led Jacksonville with 26 catches for 416 yards and four touchdowns. Brenton Strange had 26 catches for 279 yards, and Jakobi Meyers 20 for 285. Bhayshul Tuten had run 94 times for 388 yards, 4.1 a carry, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. 39 times for 168. Travis Hunter had six catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on offense, and two interceptions on defense.

Entering today, Lawrence had completed 78% of his passes against zone coverage, with a 6.5% off-target rate, both best among 33 qualified quarterbacks, per ESPN Research.

Left tackle Anton Harrison is out for the season with a torn ACL, per Jaguars.com. Jacksonville’s offensive line is 11th on our numbers and amongst the first teams out of our top 8 because of his injury: 47% pass block win rate (22nd), 74% run block (ninth), a 5.2% sack rate, 2.0 points better than its opponents usually allow, and 4.1 yards a carry, 0.2 under what those defenses allow.

Baltimore’s defensive line is seventh: 54% pass rush win rate (seventh), 31% run stop (eighth), a 6.6% sack rate, 0.5 better than its opponents’ lines usually allow, and 3.8 yards a carry allowed. The defense as a whole is 17th in FTN’s defensive DVOA.

When Baltimore has the ball

Jacksonville’s front is 16th on our numbers, and its two halves don’t match. It is fifth in pass rush win rate at 57% but 30th in run stop at 26%, and it still allows only 3.2 yards a carry, 0.6 under what its opponents usually gain.

That front came out of Sunday banged up. Nose tackle DaVon Hamilton was carted off with a right knee injury in the second quarter and ruled out, and defensive end Travon Walker (ribs) and safety Eric Murray (elbow) were also hurt, per AP. On offense, right guard Ezra Cleveland hurt his ankle.

The results favor the run defense over its win rate: Jacksonville came into today first in EPA allowed per designed rush, per ESPN. The pass defense is softer. Entering today, it allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt, also per ESPN, and had 11 sacks and seven interceptions in six games. Travon Walker had two sacks and Josh Hines-Allen 1.5; Foyesade Oluokun, Jourdan Lewis and Hunter had two interceptions each.

Entering today, Cam Little had made 10 of 12 field goals, 4 of 6 from 50 yards or more, with a long of 60.

Baltimore’s offensive line entering this weekend was 18th in our O-Line Rankings: 48% pass block (20th), 72% run block (21st), an 8.2% sack rate, 1.4 points worse than its opponents usually allow, and 4.7 yards a carry. Vega Ioane (knee) was ruled out for Buffalo. In Buffalo, Vorhees started at right guard next to Cam Jurgens.

The short week

We’ve seen repeatedly that NFL games on Thursday Night’s look like a different product.  Players are still recovering from their games just a few days prior, and we see teams look less prepared.

The Ravens get the benefit of being at home, but this already had the makings of an ugly game prior to the likelyhood of Fagnano making his first NFL start.

What comes after

After Jacksonville, the Chargers come to Baltimore on Monday, Nov. 16, at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN. Here is the rest of the schedule, with each opponent’s place in our Oct. 27th power rankings:

Four of the last five games are against the AFC North, where the Ravens are 0-2.

The Path To A 7 Seed

These numbers include Sunday’s early results; the late games (Chiefs at Broncos, Patriots at Dolphins, Chargers at Rams) use their pregame odds.

We’ll wait for the Ravens’ formal announcement on Jackson’s thumb. For our purposes, we’re assuming he misses four to six weeks. Because the bye falls in Week 13, that’s either three games, with Jackson back Nov. 29th at Houston, or four, with him back Dec. 13th against Tampa Bay.

Here’s how we built it. Each remaining Ravens game rates both teams by their place in our Oct. 27th power rankings, adds home field, and takes 6 points off the Ravens while Jackson is out, which is how far the line moved when he was ruled out against Cincinnati. Every other AFC team plays out its season at the pace of our Oct. 27th win projections. We ran the rest of the season 200,000 times and counted how often the Ravens got in.

Those numbers break ties at random. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and already behind New England on conference record, so most ties would likely go against them. If they lose every tie, the chances drop to about 18% and 15%.

The 7th seed finished with 9 or 10 wins in almost nine of every 10 simulations. From 4-4, that means going 5-4 or 6-3 the rest of the way. The model’s most common Ravens finish is 8-9.

Thursday is the hardest game without Jackson. Jacksonville is seventh in our Power Rankings, and the model gives the Ravens about a 29% chance; ESPN had them at 47.8% before the injuries and results today. The Chargers, last in our rankings, and Tampa Bay at home are the likeliest wins.

The model doesn’t know who plays quarterback. Huntley and Fagnano were both hurt today, and the 6-point adjustment assumes a healthy backup.

The trade deadline

The deadline is Tuesday, Nov. 10th, at 4 p.m. ET, per CBS Sports. That leaves the Ravens one more game, Thursday, and probably a diagnosis on Jackson’s thumb, before they decide.

Eric DeCosta has been a deadline buyer: Marcus Peters in 2019, Yannick Ngakoue in 2020 and Roquan Smith in 2022, per The Banner. This October he sent a 2028 second-round pick and a 2027 fifth to Philadelphia for Jurgens, per Yahoo Sports. The last Ravens team to sell was Ozzie Newsome’s 2015 team, which made two depth trades.

The case for selling is next year’s cap more than this year’s. The Ravens are tight this season after restructuring Jackson’s contract in the spring, which cleared about $40 million, per The Banner. Over The Cap counts about $1.9 million in room this season. If DeCosta did sell, four veterans are the realistic names:

Figures from the Over The Cap calculator. A trade now leaves this season’s bonus charge on the Ravens’ books and moves the rest of a player’s bonus money onto the 2027 cap as dead money; the last column is what’s left over.

The league cap does rise. Projections for 2027 run from about $323 million to $352 million, up from $301.2 million this year, per Over The Cap and Spotrac. Even so, Jackson’ could be roughly a quarter of it. With 45 players under contract for 2027, Over The Cap has the Ravens at about $372.9 million against a $327 million cap, roughly $46 million over before filling out a roster. Spotrac’s estimate is about $52.8 million over.

The cap has climbed fast: $208.2 million in 2022, $224.8 million in 2023, $255.4 million in 2024, $279.2 million in 2025 and $301.2 million this year.

If the projections hold, the expected Lamar Jackson extension won’t be much of an issue. If the cap doesn’t grow that much, that would make thoughts on the likely extension more complicated.
He turns 30 in January, and obviously there have been times he has missed considerable time as we discussed last week.

Ravens On SI has argued for moving all four. The timing matters less than it sounds. Because it’s after June 1, a trade now puts the same dead money on the 2027 cap as a release or trade in March would; Smith counts $12.7 million in 2027 either way. What a trade now adds is the rest of this season’s salary, which carries over into 2027 as cap space, plus whatever pick comes back. For Smith, that’s about $8 million of his $16 million base salary at the deadline. The cost is losing him for the last nine games.

Of the four, only Smith frees meaningful 2027 space whenever he’s moved. Humphrey frees none: his contract voids after this season, and its $11.9 million 2027 charge is dead money either way. Andrews is the one where a trade beats a release. Five million dollars of his 2027 salary is guaranteed and would go with him in a trade, so trading him saves $3.5 million, while cutting him would cost $1.5 million, per Over The Cap.

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Quick Hits

Our record. We went 5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread and 5-1 on totals in Week 9 (last week’s picks are here). That puts us at 30-25 straight up, 22-28-2 against the spread and 28-19 on totals for the season. Ohio State was the straight-up miss. The against-the-spread misses were Notre Dame (won by 22, laying 30.5), Arizona and Auburn (Texas Tech and Ole Miss both covered) and Miami (won by three, laying 16.5). In the five games where FPI and SP+ both disagreed with the line, the models went 2-3; Texas Tech’s eight-point win, which covered against our pick, was one of their two.

USC 30, Ohio State 18. USC answered the question we asked last week, and the answer was worse for Ohio State than we expected. Trent Mosley took a screen pass 69 yards for a touchdown on the second snap, against a defense that hadn’t allowed a play longer than 36 yards all season. The Trojans led 20-9 at halftime and 27-9 after freshman tight end Mark Bowman’s 70-yard catch set up a King Miller touchdown. They scored more points than Ohio State’s defense had allowed in its previous 31 games. Luke Fahey, the freshman who got the start over Tavien St. Clair, went 21 of 38 for 260 yards with no interceptions, and his receivers dropped several catchable balls. The Buckeyes gained 464 yards but scored only three field goals on their first five drives, including one after reaching the USC 1 before halftime. They also committed 11 penalties for 75 yards. Jeremiah Smith’s 1-yard touchdown catch with 2:12 left was the 40th of his career, a Big Ten record, and it came too late. Per the AP, Ohio State had not lost two games this early in a season since 2011, and Ryan Day is now 58-2 against unranked teams. We picked Ohio State to win and USC to cover. Half of that held.

We said last week that if Ohio State lost at USC or to Oregon, we would move it, and we have. It drops seven spots, to ninth. The reason is in the Power Rankings below: the loss proved on the field that this is a different team without Sayin.

Miami 38, North Carolina 35. The No. 1 team in the country trailed 28-24 with 11:46 left after Demon June’s 1-yard run. Miami went ahead on Mark Fletcher Jr.’s 2-yard touchdown on fourth down with 7:49 to play. On the next possession, Marquise Lightfoot stripped Billy Edwards Jr. from behind and Justin Scott recovered. Darian Mensah’s 9-yard touchdown to Malachi Toney made it 38-28 with 2:33 left, and Miami still had to recover an onside kick to finish it. Toney caught two touchdowns, and Fletcher tied Miami’s career record for rushing touchdowns. The worry is the defense. Edwards threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, and North Carolina kept the ball on a 16-play drive that lasted nearly eight and a half minutes. It was the most points Miami has allowed in regulation this season, and Mario Cristobal said afterward that the tackling and coverage weren’t good enough. North Carolina is now 0-12 against No. 1 teams. We said Miami’s place in the field did not depend on this game. It didn’t. The game at Notre Dame on Saturday matters more after this.

Georgia 27, Florida 8. Georgia forced four turnovers and led 24-0 at halftime in Atlanta, where the rivalry moved this year because of renovations in Jacksonville. The swing play came with 29 seconds left in the half: Quintavius Johnson sacked Tramell Jones Jr. and Chris Cole returned the fumble 66 yards for a touchdown. It was Cole’s second long fumble-return touchdown of the season. Aaron Philo started for Florida after missing the Texas game and was benched after two interceptions. Jones then threw an interception in the end zone from the Georgia 3. Georgia outrushed Florida 217-48 and held Jadan Baugh, who started the day leading the SEC in rushing touchdowns, to 38 yards on 17 carries. It was Georgia’s sixth straight win in the series. The caution is Gunner Stockton: 13 of 23 for 101 yards against a Florida pass defense that entered the game 121st nationally in passing yards allowed, per CBS. CBS’s Georgia column makes the case that the passing game is the problem to watch. Kirby Smart conceded afterward that Georgia missed throws and left points on the field. Last week we wrote that a loss would leave Florida at 5-3 with its best case already made. That is where Florida is.

Utah 49, Cincinnati 25. One week after Cincinnati beat Texas Tech, Utah led the Bearcats 42-6 at halftime. Utah kept the ball for more than 10 minutes of the first quarter, Rabbit Evans returned a fumble 51 yards for a touchdown, and Elijah Davis returned an interception 39 yards for another with 34 seconds left in the half. Devon Dampier threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. His 45 rushing yards made him Utah’s career leader in rushing yards by a quarterback. The Utes are 8-0 for the first time since 2010, and their 14-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the FBS. This was the kind of result Utah needed before BYU comes to Salt Lake City.

Indiana 23, Minnesota 16, in overtime. For the second straight week, Indiana needed overtime against an unranked team. Josh Hoover, who started with an injured right shoulder, was pulled at halftime after his second interception of the season, with Minnesota up 10-7. Grant Wilson went 9 of 17 for 156 yards. Minnesota’s Luke Drzewiecki made a 60-yard field goal for a 16-13 lead with 19 seconds left. Charlie Becker then caught a 33-yard pass and Paddy McAteer made a 60-yarder of his own as time expired. Wilson hit Becker for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime, and the defense sacked Drake Lindsey on fourth down to end it. Becker finished with eight catches for 149 yards. The special teams were nearly as bad as the offense: two short punts set up both Minnesota scores in the first half, a field goal was blocked, another was missed and a third attempt never happened because of a bad snap. Last week we wrote that the problem is the offense. It still is, and now the quarterback is a question too.

Texas Tech 34, Arizona 26. Joey McGuire benched Will Hammond after the loss at Cincinnati and started Tommy Castellanos, and Texas Tech got its first opening-drive touchdown since the opener. Castellanos completed only 11 of 24 passes for 144 yards but threw two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards and a score. His 27-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-2 late in the third quarter put the Red Raiders ahead for good. J’Koby Williams ran for 175 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown. Noah Fifita threw for 417 yards for Arizona, 182 of them to Isaiah Mizell, but the Wildcats ran for 12 yards and gave up five sacks. Texas Tech tied a school record with its 13th straight home win. The start came a day after a court ruling preserved the eligibility of Castellanos and 29 other athletes suing over the NCAA’s five-year eligibility model. We picked Arizona to cover and it didn’t. Last week we wrote that the loser would have two league losses and that, for Texas Tech, it would end the title-game path. Arizona is the team with two now.

Notre Dame 35, Navy 13. Navy led 13-7 with 1:52 left in the first half after Jackson Gutierrez’s 2-yard run. Notre Dame went ahead 50 seconds later on Nolan James Jr.’s 52-yard run and scored on each of its first three possessions of the second half. Navy, which had the ball for all but 6:27 of the first half, gained 56 yards after halftime. CJ Carr threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, James ran for 107 and two scores, and Marcus Freeman won his 50th game at Notre Dame. It was the Irish’s ninth straight win over Navy. Notre Dame won by 22, laying 30.5, so we got the winner and the under but not the cover.

Ole Miss 45, Auburn 15. Ole Miss led only 17-15 late in the third quarter. Trinidad Chambliss ran 26 yards for a touchdown, threw two more touchdowns in the fourth, and the Rebels scored the last 28 points. Chambliss threw for 263 yards and ran for 65. Ole Miss converted 13 of 16 third downs and held Auburn to 63 rushing yards. With Kewan Lacy out (separated shoulder), sophomore Shekai Mills-Knight, who had 42 yards in the first seven games, ran 16 times for 71 yards and a touchdown. Coach Pete Golding credited the early running game for setting up everything else. We picked Auburn to cover 11.5. It lost by 30. CBS’s projection lists the score as 45-17; the AP recap and ESPN’s committee column both have a 30-point margin, so we use 45-15.

BYU 27, Arizona State 20. BYU led 17-3 at halftime, saw Arizona State tie it in the third quarter and pulled away late. Matthias Dunn’s 45-yard field goal put BYU ahead for good. Bear Bachmeier converted a fourth-and-1 run from his own 14, hit a 53-yard pass on the next play and set up Sione Moa’s 1-yard touchdown with 2:09 left. BYU had six sacks. There is an asterisk on the first score: the Big 12 said after the game that replay should not have awarded BYU a touchdown when Moa scooped up Bachmeier’s fumble near the goal line, and that BYU should have had third-and-goal from the 2. Arizona State’s Jake Fette was making his first career start.

Boise State 46, Texas State 45. Boise State led by 25 at halftime and then gave up the first 36 points of the second half. Jayden Bradley’s pick-six off Maddux Madsen, Madsen’s first interception of the season, put Texas State ahead 39-28 with 8:58 left. Madsen then took a hard hit near his left knee and left the game. Max Cutforth came in and threw three touchdown passes in the final seven minutes, the last an 18-yarder to Akeem Wright with 2:40 left. Mana Tuioti’s interception on a trick play set up one of them. Madsen watched the end on crutches, and Spencer Danielson said his status is unknown. Danielson also called the third quarter one of the worst he has been part of. Boise was No. 20 in last week’s AP poll, tied with Northwestern; that is the ranking the AP recap used. Boise is 7-1 and 4-0 in the Pac-12. The Madsen news matters more for the Group of Six race than the score does.

The week-after problem kept going. ESPN pointed out earlier this season how often teams lose the week after their biggest win. Three more did it this week. Wisconsin beat USC 17-7 a week ago and lost 30-0 at Iowa, where Hank Brown completed 20 of 24 passes. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech and lost at home to Utah by 24. Florida beat Texas in its last game and lost to Georgia by 19. USC has a bye before it goes to Indiana on November 14th.

Elsewhere. Syracuse beat SMU 30-27 on a 2-yard touchdown pass from Steve Angeli to Noah Meyers with 17 seconds left, which hurts SMU’s hopes of reaching the ACC title game. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 on Kyle Konrardy’s 34-yard field goal as time expired, set up in part by an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty on Oklahoma State’s go-ahead touchdown. Oregon came back from 10-0 down to beat Northwestern 34-26 behind Dylan Raiola, who threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon has ruled Dante Moore out for the season and fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer on October 25th. South Carolina won 42-25 at Oklahoma, its third straight win. Washington beat Nebraska with two touchdowns in the last 90 seconds, the second a 48-yard interception return; Nebraska has lost three straight by a combined 13 points. Missouri won 34-10 at Arkansas, and Ahmad Hardy, who was shot in the leg at a concert in May, played for the first time this season. Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7, though quarterback Gio Lopez limped off with a leg injury. UCLA intercepted four passes and beat Nevada 27-0, its first shutout at the Rose Bowl since 2007. Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3, with defensive tackle Maraad Watson returning a fumble 61 yards for a score. Mississippi State’s starter, AJ Swann, was hurt on that play, which leaves the offense to walk-on Parker Puckett. Thursday night, Troy beat James Madison 24-21 in overtime after the Dukes led 21-7 at halftime and then turned it over five times. Baylor, under interim coach Joe Klanderman, beat UCF 41-9. And Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 for its first FBS win.

Power Rankings

Records are through October 31st. Florida dropped out.

Georgia (2nd, up 1). Georgia moves up because Ohio State fell, and it earned the spot. Its two best wins are away from home, at Alabama and against Florida in Atlanta. Saturday was the defense’s game: four takeaways, a touchdown and 48 rushing yards allowed. The passing game is the open question going into Oxford.

BYU (3rd, up 1). BYU moves up one because Ohio State fell. Arizona State made it uncomfortable, and the Big 12 says one of BYU’s touchdowns shouldn’t have counted. BYU still won by seven with six sacks and a fourth-down conversion from its own 14. It stays ahead of Notre Dame on head-to-head and ahead of Utah on the promise we made, which runs out Saturday.

Notre Dame (4th, up 1). Notre Dame moves up one because Ohio State fell. The first half against Navy was sloppy and the second half was not. The Irish held Navy to 56 yards after halftime.

Utah (5th, up 2). Utah passes Indiana. Utah went to a Cincinnati team that had just beaten Texas Tech by 13 and led by 36 at halftime. In the same two weeks, Indiana needed overtime twice against unranked teams and pulled its quarterback at halftime on Saturday. Utah’s schedule is still the weakest of the contenders, and we said so last week, but it is 8-0 and has won its last two big games, Houston and Cincinnati, in very different ways. It stays behind BYU for one more week because we said it would.

UCLA (7th, up 1). UCLA moves up one because Ohio State fell. Four interceptions and a shutout of a 3-5 team don’t change much, but the Bruins are 8-0 and now the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten standings.

Texas (8th, up 1). Texas moves up one and passes Ohio State, which it beat 24-23 in Austin in Week 2. We wrote last week that if Ohio State lost at USC, Texas would move ahead. It has. The 31-3 win over Mississippi State was more about the defense than the offense, which was sacked six times and finished under 300 yards. Cam Coleman left early for the second straight game and was in street clothes in the second half.

Ohio State (9th, down 7). Ohio State drops because it lost, and because the loss showed on the field what losing Sayin means. The defense, first in SP+ a week ago, gave up a 69-yard touchdown on the second snap and 30 points. The offense moved the ball and could not finish. It falls behind Texas, which beat it. It stays ahead of USC, Texas Tech and the rest of this group because of the whole body of work: wins over Indiana and at Iowa, and two losses on the road, both to teams ranked in our top 20. Seven spots is inside our 11-spot ceiling. If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon on Saturday, they drop again.

Wake Forest (16th, up 1). Wake Forest beat Virginia 51-7 for its fifth straight win and has given up four touchdowns in four games. Houston was off. Wake also gained from SMU’s loss at Syracuse, which leaves the Demon Deacons as the clear second team in the ACC.

USC (17th, new). USC enters because it beat the No. 2 team in the country by 12 on Saturday night. The Trojans are 7-2. They lost at home to Oregon earlier in the season and 17-7 at Wisconsin a week ago, so this is not a team without flaws. But beating Ohio State is a win few teams in this part of the ranking can match, and a week after scoring seven points, the offense put up 30 on the Ohio State defense.

Houston (18th, down 2). Houston was off. It drops two because Wake Forest won big and passes it, and because USC’s win over Ohio State is better than any win Houston has. Houston hosts Cincinnati on Saturday.

Boise State (20th, down 2). Boise State won, but it gave up 36 straight points at home to a 4-4 team and needed its backup quarterback to come back. Madsen’s injury is the bigger issue: if he misses time, this is a different team. Missouri, which won 34-10 at Arkansas, passes it.

Why Ohio State is ahead of USC. USC won 30-18 in Los Angeles, and it was not close; the Trojans led 27-9 in the third quarter. Under the rule we have used all season, a result like that does not get overridden. We are making an exception here and saying why. Ohio State played its first full game without Sayin, with a freshman making his first career start on the road. The loss tells us that this version of Ohio State is a lesser team, and we have dropped the Buckeyes seven spots for it. It does not tell us that USC has been the better team across nine games. Ohio State’s two losses are by one at Texas and by 12 at USC. USC’s two losses are at home to Oregon and by 10 at Wisconsin, a team that just lost 30-0. The fairer reading of Saturday is that a short-handed Ohio State lost on the road to a solid, capable team, and that USC is good enough to beat this Ohio State. That is a good result for USC, and it is why USC is ranked. It is not enough to put USC ahead of a team with Ohio State’s full record. If USC wins at Indiana on November 14th, this paragraph changes.

Why Indiana is ahead of Ohio State. Ohio State beat Indiana 19-15 in Bloomington on October 17th. That is a four-point loss, close enough for our rule to allow an override, though it came at home. The reason for the override is Sayin. He played most of that game, and the Ohio State team that beat Indiana is not the one that played at USC. Fahey did not look ready on Saturday, though it was his first start, on the road, and we will see how much he improves. Indiana is 8-1 and Ohio State is 6-2. That is not a claim that Indiana is dominant. Its 23 points against Minnesota were the most it has scored in four weeks, and every one of those games was close. Indiana wins them with good coaching and an experienced team, and it looks like a playoff team, but not one that is beating people up. Ohio State still holds the Big Ten tiebreaker if they finish level, which is a separate question from who is better right now.

Why USC is ahead of Oregon and Wisconsin. Oregon beat USC 41-27 at the Coliseum on September 26th, and Wisconsin beat USC 17-7 in Madison on October 24th. Neither was close. We still have USC ahead of both. USC is 7-2 and 4-2 in the Big Ten, with a win over Ohio State. Oregon is 5-3 and 3-2, with losses to UCLA, Oklahoma State and Illinois since it beat USC. If Oregon wins out, starting at Ohio State on Saturday, the head-to-head result will carry more weight and we will look at it again. Wisconsin is 5-3, and its 30-0 loss at Iowa on Saturday settles that one for now.

Why Texas and Ole Miss are ahead of Florida. Florida beat Texas 27-24 in Austin and Ole Miss 52-28 in Gainesville. We already overrode the Texas result (close) and broke the Ole Miss result as part of the Florida–Missouri–Ole Miss cycle. Florida is now 5-3, has lost three of its last four and is out of our top 20.

Carried over. These standing calls are unchanged. BYU is ahead of UCF, which beat it in double overtime in Orlando. Georgia is ahead of Auburn, which beat it 27-24 in Athens in the final seconds. Texas Tech is ahead of Cincinnati, which beat it 37-24 in Cincinnati. Tennessee is ahead of South Carolina, which beat it 27-24 in Columbia on October 24th; a three-point road loss is the kind our rule allows us to override. That was the middle game of South Carolina’s three-game winning streak, and the Gamecocks are close to our top 20. Boise State is ahead of Oregon, which beat it by seven in Eugene.

Why the rest held. Miami stays first. A three-point win at North Carolina was not the performance of a week ago, but Miami is the only unbeaten team in the top four and has the best résumé. Indiana holds at sixth. It won again and drops only because Utah passed it, which offsets Ohio State’s fall. Texas Tech holds at tenth after a good win over Arizona, still behind Ohio State’s body of work and ahead of three SEC teams that were off. Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky all had byes, and the margin chain that holds them in that order (Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 in Knoxville; Alabama won 45-17 in Lexington) gets tested Saturday when Kentucky goes to Tennessee. Ole Miss won by 30 and holds at 14th behind 7-1 Kentucky. LSU was off and stays behind Ole Miss and Kentucky, which beat it. Missouri won and holds at 19th. It moves ahead of Boise State without moving itself.

Who’s next. The first team out is Iowa (6-2). It beat Wisconsin 30-0, its third shutout of the season, and its losses are to Ohio State and by three at Minnesota. Then come Florida, South Carolina (three straight wins, over Florida, Tennessee and Oklahoma), Northwestern, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon and SMU.

The outside check

Last week we said that this week we would set our ranking next to the committee’s. We can’t yet. The committee’s first ranking comes out Tuesday night at 7 p.m. Eastern, after this piece runs. We will make that comparison in the Week 11 piece on November 8th. For now, the best stand-in is ESPN’s projection of what the committee will do. ESPN’s top seven are Miami, Georgia, BYU, Notre Dame, Utah, Indiana and UCLA, the same seven teams as ours in the same order. Then the lists split. ESPN has Kentucky eighth, Texas ninth, Ohio State 10th, Ole Miss 11th and LSU 12th. We have Texas eighth and Ohio State ninth, then Texas Tech, Tennessee and Alabama, with Kentucky 13th, Ole Miss 14th and LSU 15th. ESPN leaves Texas Tech, Tennessee and Alabama out of its 12. The Kentucky gap is still our biggest disagreement with the outside view, and Saturday’s game in Knoxville is the best chance to settle it on the field.

CBS’s projection of Sunday’s AP poll has Miami and Georgia first and second, as we do, then Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Indiana and BYU. It has Ohio State 11th, behind Kentucky, Alabama and Texas, and USC 17th, as we do. We have used CBS’s projection on the board for three weeks, and it was worth checking how close it came. The real post-Week 8 AP poll had Georgia third and Notre Dame fifth, where the projection we printed had them fourth and third. Indiana was fourth, not sixth, and BYU was eighth, not fifth. Utah was sixth, Ole Miss 12th and Houston 18th, and Boise State and Northwestern tied for 20th. The order at the very top was right; the rest moved by a few spots. The labels on this week’s board are CBS’s projection again, because the real poll comes out Sunday afternoon.

SP+, updated Sunday, has Georgia first, then Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Miami, Indiana, Texas, Alabama, Utah, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Oregon. Our biggest gaps with it are the same as last week: LSU is fourth in SP+ and 15th here, and Kentucky is 34th in SP+ and 13th here. SP+ also has BYU 14th and UCLA 15th, well below where we and ESPN’s projection have them. SP+ is a predictive rating, not a résumé ranking, so it doesn’t credit wins the way the committee does. Its résumé SP+ is closer to us: Miami, Utah, Notre Dame, UCLA, Georgia and Indiana are first through sixth, six of our top seven. The exception is BYU, 14th.

Best vs. Most Deserving

Our Power Rankings reward what teams have done: head-to-head results, the margin chain among Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky, the promise to hold BYU ahead of Utah until they play, and limits on how far a team can move in a week. A different question is who the 10 best teams are right now, the ones we would expect to win on a neutral field next Saturday. That list leans on how teams are playing, and on FPI and SP+, which are built to predict. Our answer differs from our top 10 in four places.

FPI and SP+ ranks are from the November 1st runs.

BYU and UCLA drop out. They are third and seventh in our Power Rankings, and both earned those spots: BYU beat Notre Dame, and UCLA hasn’t lost. Neither model sees either as elite. FPI has BYU 16th and UCLA 28th; SP+ has them 14th and 15th. BYU lost at UCF, and against Arizona State it got a touchdown the Big 12 says shouldn’t have counted. UCLA’s opponents have a combined winning percentage that ranks 114th, according to ESPN Analytics. Those are good teams with strong résumés, not two of the 10 best teams in the country.

LSU and Alabama come in. We rank them 15th and 12th because each lost to a team we rank above it: LSU to Ole Miss and Kentucky, Alabama to Georgia and Tennessee. Both models put them in the top eight. On a neutral field, we would expect either one to be favored against most of our top 10. One of them will have three losses by Saturday night, because they play each other.

Notre Dame moves ahead of Miami. Miami is first in our rankings because it is unbeaten with the best résumé in the country, first in résumé SP+. As a team right now, Notre Dame looks a little better: first in FPI, top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency by ESPN Analytics. Miami’s defense just gave up 35 points to North Carolina. Saturday in South Bend answers this directly.

Georgia is first. SP+ moved Georgia to No. 1 this week, with the second-best defense in the country. The passing game is a real question, and it is the reason we picked Ole Miss to cover. But Georgia is the only team in the top five of SP+ on both offense and defense.

Ohio State stays in, but lower than the models. FPI and SP+ both have Ohio State second. Both ratings were built mostly on games Sayin played. The defense is still among the best in the country, which is why the Buckeyes are in. We would not put them above Texas, which beat them, or above Indiana, for the reasons in our Power Rankings. That is our judgment, not the models’.

Utah drops to ninth. Utah is fifth in our rankings because it is 8-0 and has handled its two biggest games. Both models have it about ninth or 10th. Its schedule ranks 93rd in SP+, the softest of any team on this list.

The 10th spot is close. Texas Tech gets it over Tennessee and Ole Miss. SP+ has Texas Tech 10th, Tennessee 11th and Ole Miss 13th. FPI goes the other way, with Ole Miss ninth, ahead of Texas Tech (13th) and Tennessee (14th). It is close enough that we would not argue hard against either Tennessee or Ole Miss.

Kentucky is in neither list. Kentucky is 13th in our rankings because it is 7-1 and its only loss is to Alabama. It is 26th in FPI and 34th in SP+, and its own efficiency numbers back the models up. That is why Saturday at Tennessee matters so much for our rankings: it is the clearest test of whether the record or the play is the truer picture.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team field, and Change is against our preseason numbers. The 19 teams add up to 9.81. With the Group of Six line (1.06) and the field (1.13), that is 12.00. Boise State’s chance is still inside the Group of Six line so the line can be compared with August.

Ohio State drops 20, from 76 to 56. That is the biggest cut this week and inside our 24-point ceiling. Ohio State is 6-2 with Oregon, two more Big Ten games and Michigan left, and it now has to win most of them with a freshman quarterback. FPI still gives it 74.2 percent, but FPI’s rating was built mostly on Sayin’s games. A third loss would probably end it.

Utah rises 8, to 72. It is 8-0, won its two biggest games of the season back to back, and FPI now puts its playoff chance at 78.1 percent.

Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech and Wake Forest rise 6 each. Texas, to 66, won and now owns the head-to-head that matters most for a two-loss at-large spot; ESPN’s committee projection ranks it highest of the two-loss teams. UCLA, to 58, is the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten and gained when Ohio State lost. Texas Tech, to 50, beat Arizona and is tied for second in the Big 12 at 4-1. Wake Forest, to 32, won by 44, and SMU’s loss makes Wake the clear favorite to face Miami in the ACC title game.

Georgia and Indiana rise 4 each; Ole Miss rises 4. Georgia, to 88, won its rivalry game by 19 and is tied for the SEC lead. Indiana, to 78, did not play well, but Ohio State’s loss opens up its Big Ten path; FPI’s playoff number for the Hoosiers is 84.6 percent. Ole Miss, to 40, won by 30 without its best running back.

Notre Dame and BYU rise 2 each; Miami rises 1; Missouri rises 2. Notre Dame (78) and BYU (58) won games they were expected to win. Miami (95) won but showed a defensive problem. Missouri (8) won on the road and now hosts Texas.

Off-week teams held. Alabama (58), Kentucky (48), LSU (40), Tennessee (28) and Houston (14) did not play and did not move.

In and out. USC enters at 14. That is down 19 from its preseason 33 but up from the field, where it sat last week. Florida drops out of the table, from 14 into the field: the loss to Georgia was its third, and we said a loss would leave it with its best case already made. The field line falls from 1.40 to 1.13. Arizona, Northwestern, SMU, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin, all in the field, lost, and that is where most of this week’s gains came from. The Group of Six line falls slightly, from 1.10 to 1.06; the reason is in the next section.

What the Committee Will Have to Argue About

The 13-member selection committee starts meeting Monday and releases its first ranking Tuesday at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, the first of six. Its protocol tells it to pick the best teams and seed them, and it allows the committee to consider things like the unavailability of key players. That last part may matter more this year than usual. Here are the arguments we expect in the room this week, and the ones coming later. Most of the facts below come from ESPN’s committee projection.

This week

• How far Ohio State falls. The Buckeyes lost by one at Texas with Sayin and by 12 at USC without him. The committee has to decide whether it is ranking the team that went 6-1 or the one that played Saturday. ESPN projects Ohio State 10th, right behind Texas, on the head-to-head. We have it ninth, also behind Texas.
• Whether USC’s win counts for more than USC’s losses. USC beat Ohio State convincingly, but it also lost to Oregon and Wisconsin, and neither may be in the committee’s top 25. If the committee honors the head-to-head, USC becomes one of its top two-loss teams. If not, USC lands behind Ohio State, as it does in ours.
• BYU or Notre Dame. BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 and both are 7-1. But BYU’s loss at UCF is worse than Notre Dame’s loss at BYU, and ESPN Analytics has Notre Dame in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiency, with BYU outside the top 12 in both. The committee doesn’t have to honor a head-to-head result if it decides the teams aren’t comparable. We think it will this week, as we do.
• What to do with unbeaten teams that haven’t played anyone. UCLA is 8-0 and second in ESPN’s strength of record, but its opponents’ combined winning percentage ranks 114th, and it is outside the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Utah is 8-0 with one ranked opponent, though it is one of the more explosive teams in the country. Being unbeaten has never guaranteed a high spot in this committee’s rankings.
• Kentucky’s résumé against Kentucky’s play. Kentucky entered its bye leading the country in strength of record with the eighth-hardest schedule. It also ranks outside the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency and has won by an average of 8.1 points. ESPN projects it eighth. We have it 13th. Where the committee puts Kentucky will tell us which of those two things it values more.
• Georgia’s home loss and soft early schedule. Georgia has wins at Alabama and over Florida, but it lost at home to Auburn, and its schedule was the weakest in the SEC going into Saturday. The question is whether it is the committee’s top one-loss team or just one of several.
• Miami’s schedule. Miami is the clearest No. 1 on the board, but its schedule ranked 60th going into Saturday, and the win at North Carolina won’t help much. Some members could see Georgia as the better team.
• Indiana’s quality loss. Indiana has no wins over teams currently ranked, and its offense has struggled for a month. Its best argument is that the four-point home loss to Ohio State came with Sayin playing. That argument depends on the committee also believing Ohio State is weaker now, which cuts both ways.
• Sorting the two-loss SEC teams. Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama and Tennessee are all 6-2, and the results among them form a web: Texas beat Ole Miss and Tennessee, Ole Miss beat LSU, Tennessee beat Alabama. Florida beat Texas and Ole Miss, and Florida is now 5-3. ESPN projects Texas, Ole Miss and LSU into its 12 and leaves Alabama and Tennessee out.
• The Group of Six spot. Boise State is the frontrunner, but Madsen’s knee injury came three days before the first ranking. The committee will rank the team it has watched, and how much it discounts Boise for the injury is something we won’t know until later rankings.

Coming later

• Miami at Notre Dame. If Notre Dame loses, it has two losses, no conference title to fall back on and SMU still to play. If Miami loses, ESPN notes it can still get in as the ACC champion. If Wake Forest then beats Miami in the ACC title game, the league could get two teams, with Miami holding a win over the eventual champion.
• Two Big 12 teams. BYU and Utah meet Saturday and could meet again in the Big 12 title game. If the results split, the runner-up would have a two-loss case that includes a win over the league champion.
• Ohio State going forward. Every week Fahey plays, the committee gets more evidence about the Buckeyes without Sayin. Oregon this week and Michigan to close are the tests. A third loss would probably make the injury argument moot.
• A possible SEC cycle. If Kentucky beats Tennessee, then Kentucky beat Tennessee, Tennessee beat Alabama and Alabama beat Kentucky. No order respects all three results, and the committee would have to pick one to break, as we did with Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.
• Texas or LSU. They meet in Baton Rouge on November 14th. If both still have two losses, ESPN expects that game to decide which one gets an at-large bid. LSU has the toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.
• Who wins the Big Ten. UCLA is alone in first and doesn’t play Ohio State or Indiana. If the Bruins reach the title game unbeaten and lose, the committee will have to decide what a 12-1 team with that schedule is worth against two-loss teams with better wins.
• Margin of victory. The committee caps margin at 24 points, so blowouts like Utah’s 49-25 and Wake Forest’s 51-7 count for less than they look. Close wins, like Indiana’s two in overtime, count as wins, but they don’t help a team’s case.

The Group of Six Race

Boise State is still the clear favorite for the Group of Six spot, but for the first time this season the question is about its quarterback rather than its schedule. Two of the teams chasing it, James Madison and Oregon State, lost this week, and New Mexico and UTSA are the only ones left with a real chance of passing Boise if it stumbles.

FPI ranks and playoff percentages (each team’s chance of making the 12-team field) are from ESPN’s FPI, updated November 1st. SP+ and résumé SP+ ranks are from ESPN’s SP+ as of Sunday, November 1st. Records against ranked teams use the AP poll. North Texas replaces North Dakota State (7-2, 0.0 percent).

Who is best. FPI still says Boise State, by a wide margin: its rating is about 5 points better than New Mexico’s, about 6 better than Liberty’s and about 7.5 better than James Madison’s. SP+ sees it much more tightly. Liberty, up 17 spots, is the top Group of Six team at 28th, then Boise State 31st, New Mexico 32nd and James Madison 33rd, four teams within about a point and a quarter of each other. Résumé SP+ still has Boise first in the group (15th), with Liberty 17th and New Mexico 20th. Liberty’s and New Mexico’s schedules rank 130th and 126th in SP+; Boise’s ranks 61st. Both ratings were set with Madsen at quarterback, and that matters this week.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. Boise State. FPI gives it a 61.9 percent chance of making the field, up from 47.6 a week ago, and a 72.1 percent chance of winning the Pac-12. ESPN’s committee projection puts Boise in its bracket as the 12th seed. What changed is Madsen. Boise was trailing by 11 when he went out, and Cutforth won the game, which is a point in Boise’s favor. But the line we have printed for weeks is that the one thing that could change the race is Oregon State on November 14th. Now it is the knee.

Who else. New Mexico is 7-1, 4-0 in the Mountain West and has won five straight; its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma. FPI gives it a 66.1 percent chance of winning the league. UTSA is 7-1 and 4-0 in the American, with its only loss to Texas, but North Texas is also 4-0 in the league, and FPI splits the title almost evenly among three teams (34.8 percent for North Texas, 33.6 for UTSA, 25.1 for Memphis). Liberty is 7-1 and 4-0 in Conference USA, and FPI gives it an 80.3 percent chance to win the league, but its schedule ranks 130th in SP+. James Madison lost at home to Troy on Thursday after turning it over five times; it has two losses and FPI’s playoff chance is now 0.0. It is no longer the East leader in the Sun Belt by percentage; Georgia Southern is 3-1 to the Dukes’ 4-2, although FPI still makes James Madison the favorite in the division (61.8 percent). Oregon State lost at Fresno State and has three losses.

Our split. We trim the Group of Six line from 1.10 to 1.06. The line is mostly the one guaranteed spot plus a small chance of a second team as an at-large. That small chance fell when James Madison and Oregon State lost. Of the 1.06, Boise State gets about 0.58 (up from 0.55, since two challengers lost, held down by Madsen’s injury), New Mexico 0.22 (up from 0.20), UTSA 0.12 (unchanged after a bye), Oregon State 0.03 (down from 0.08), James Madison 0.02 (down from 0.08) and the rest 0.09 (up from 0.07, with Liberty, North Texas and Louisiana Tech all winning).

This week. Boise State goes to Colorado State, and the first thing to watch is who plays quarterback. New Mexico plays at Nevada on Friday night. James Madison goes to Southern Miss on Thursday. Texas State, the team that nearly beat Boise, goes to Oregon State.

Conference Projections

These are our chances of each team winning its conference. Changes from last week are in bold.

ACC. Miami 75, Wake Forest 16 (up 5), SMU 3 (down 4), Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 1, Duke 1. SMU’s loss at Syracuse drops it to 4-2 in the league and two games behind Miami. Wake Forest is 5-1 and has the clearer path to the title game; it still goes to SMU, but SMU now needs help. The field point comes off with SMU’s chances. Miami won but holds, because North Carolina scored 35 on its defense. FPI: Miami 75.4, Wake Forest 20.7, Louisville 1.9, SMU 1.8.

SEC. Georgia 43 (up 3), Kentucky 15, Alabama 12, Ole Miss 9 (up 1), LSU 7, Texas 6, Tennessee 5, Missouri 2, field 1 (down 2). Florida drops from 2 to 0 (down 2) with its third conference loss. Georgia is tied with Kentucky at 5-1 and holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, which it beat in Tuscaloosa. Saturday at Ole Miss is the biggest step left. Alabama still holds the tiebreaker over Kentucky. Kentucky’s number is far above FPI’s because it is tied for first; Saturday at Tennessee decides whether that number holds. FPI: Georgia 41.8, Alabama 16.8, Ole Miss 12.2, LSU 11.7, Kentucky 6.8, Texas 6.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 34 (down 10), Indiana 32 (up 6), UCLA 22 (up 6), USC 3 (up 2), Iowa 2, Oregon 1, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Northwestern 1 (down 1), Nebraska 0 (down 1), field 4. UCLA is alone in first at 5-0 and does not play Ohio State or Indiana. Indiana is 5-1. Ohio State is 4-1 and still holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. That is why the Buckeyes stay barely ahead, even after Saturday. USC is 4-2 and still goes to Indiana. FPI: Ohio State 42.8, Indiana 38.0, UCLA 11.5, USC 2.6, Oregon 2.6.

Big 12. Utah 44 (up 4), Texas Tech 24 (up 4), BYU 23, Houston 4, Arizona 3 (down 3), Oklahoma State 1 (down 2), Baylor 1, field 0 (down 3). Utah is 5-0. Texas Tech and BYU are 4-1, and Texas Tech plays neither Utah nor BYU, which is why it edges BYU here. Arizona and Oklahoma State each have two league losses. BYU at Utah decides the most likely title-game matchup. FPI: Utah 48.4, Texas Tech 21.6, BYU 17.1, Houston 6.2, Arizona 4.3.

Pac-12. Boise State 70 (up 2), Oregon State 17 (down 3), Fresno State 7 (up 3), Texas State 3 (down 1), San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1, Washington State 0 (down 1). Boise is 4-0. Oregon State lost at Fresno State and is 3-1. Fresno State is 2-2 but beat the team most likely to face Boise. Boise’s number would be higher without the Madsen injury. FPI: Boise State 72.1, Oregon State 17.1, Fresno State 5.7, Texas State 4.1.

Conference Overviews

We still rank the nine leagues SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac-12, American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, MAC. FPI’s top 25 has 10 SEC teams, seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12, three from the ACC and Notre Dame. SP+’s top 25 has eight teams from the SEC, eight from the Big Ten, four each from the Big 12 and ACC, and Notre Dame. Kentucky is 34th in SP+.

SEC. The league’s top four (Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss) are a combined 26-6. Georgia and Kentucky lead at 5-1, with Alabama and Ole Miss at 4-2. This week has three games between teams in our top 15: Georgia at Ole Miss, Alabama at LSU and Kentucky at Tennessee, plus Texas at Missouri. FPI puts five SEC teams in its top nine. The bottom is weak: Arkansas and Vanderbilt are a combined 1-9 in league play.

Big Ten. UCLA leads at 5-0, Indiana is 5-1 and Ohio State is 4-1. USC is 4-2 and back in the race on paper. The league’s two best teams by FPI, Ohio State and Indiana, have both looked vulnerable for a month, and its only unbeaten team ranks 28th in FPI. Iowa’s 30-0 win over Wisconsin and Oregon’s win over Northwestern shuffled the middle. Maryland and Michigan State are winless in the league.

Big 12. Utah is 5-0, BYU and Texas Tech are 4-1, and four teams are 3-2. Cincinnati, CBS’s “agent of chaos,” was handled by Utah and goes to Houston next. Baylor’s 41-9 win over UCF, under an interim coach, suggests the middle of this league is still unsettled.

ACC. Miami is 6-0 and Wake Forest 5-1. Louisville and SMU are 4-2. SMU’s loss to Syracuse makes this a two-team league at the top. North Carolina took Miami to the last minute and Syracuse beat SMU, but the league still has only three teams in FPI’s top 25.

Pac-12. Boise State is 4-0 and Oregon State 3-1. The league’s FPI average is still the best of the Group of Six leagues: −2.3, with a median of −2.15. Only two of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. Only one Pac-12 team, Boise State at 32nd, is now in FPI’s top 50; Oregon State is 53rd.

American. UTSA and North Texas are both 4-0, with Memphis 4-1. The league’s FPI average is −6.1 and its median −4.6, and five of its 14 teams are below 100th. Memphis (54th) is its best team in FPI.

Mountain West. New Mexico is 4-0 and Wyoming 4-1. North Dakota State is 4-2. The FPI average is −9.0, the median −8.85, and five of 10 teams are below 100th. Northern Illinois is 0-8.

Sun Belt. Louisiana Tech leads the West at 4-0. Georgia Southern leads the East at 3-1, ahead of James Madison at 4-2 by percentage. The FPI average is −9.2, the median −9.2, and eight of 14 teams are below 100th.

MAC. Ohio is 4-0 and Western Michigan 4-1. The FPI average is −15.2 and the median −14.7, and 10 of 13 teams are below 100th. FPI rates Toledo (36.0 percent) and Western Michigan (34.7) as the favorites over Ohio (20.1).

SP+ agrees with the order. Its Group of Six averages and medians by league: Pac-12 −2.3 and −2.6, American −4.9 and −3.65, Mountain West −6.8 and −6.2, Sun Belt −7.9 and −8.95, Conference USA −9.8 and −12.1, MAC −13.1 and −14.4. SP+ has three Pac-12 teams below 100th, four from the American, four from the Mountain West, eight from the Sun Belt and nine from the MAC. The Pac-12 (Boise State 31st, Oregon State 49th) and the Mountain West (New Mexico 32nd, North Dakota State 35th) each have two teams in SP+’s top 50.

The Week 10 Board

Spreads and totals are from DraftKings. The percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of Sunday’s AP poll, since the real poll was not out when this was written. All games are Saturday, November 7th.

The biggest split between the models and the market is Texas at Missouri. ESPN gives Texas a 71.3 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make Texas about a 7.5-point favorite, but the line is 3.5. Georgia at Ole Miss goes the other way: FPI’s ratings make Georgia only about a 1.5-point favorite, against a 3-point line. FPI also has Alabama–LSU closer than the market (about 2.5, against 4.5). Miami–Notre Dame is the game where the market and FPI agree most closely (about 3, against 3.5). SP+’s ratings make Utah about a 5.5-point favorite, Texas about 4, LSU about 6.5, Tennessee about 10, Notre Dame about 3.5 and Georgia about 8.5. The two models split against the line in three games: Alabama–LSU, Miami–Notre Dame and Georgia–Ole Miss. The biggest is Georgia, where SP+ has the Bulldogs by about 8.5 and FPI by about 1.5.

Predictions

Utah 27, BYU 20. FPI’s ratings make Utah about a 6-point favorite at home, a little more than the 4.5-point line, and ESPN gives the Utes a 65.7 percent chance of winning. SP+’s ratings make it about 5.5, also above the line. Utah just scored 42 in a half against a team that beat Texas Tech; BYU let Arizona State back into its game in the second half and got one touchdown from a replay ruling the Big 12 says was wrong. BYU’s defense, six sacks on Saturday, is what keeps this close. Utah wins and covers. Under 48.5.

What it means. This is the end of our promise. We have kept BYU ahead of Utah for weeks because we said we would wait for this game. The winner leads the Big 12 race and takes the higher spot in our ranking. ESPN’s committee column points out that both teams could still get in, with a rematch in the Big 12 title game: the loser of Saturday would have a case as a two-loss runner-up if it wins in Arlington.

Texas 24, Missouri 17. FPI’s ratings make Texas about a 7.5-point favorite on the road, and ESPN gives Texas a 71.3 percent chance, both well above the 3.5-point line. SP+’s ratings make it about 4, just above it. The Texas defense has carried it for two weeks; the offense was sacked six times by Mississippi State and is running poorly. Missouri got Ahmad Hardy back. But Texas has three wins over teams in our top 14, and Missouri’s two losses include a 31-3 loss to Ole Miss. Texas wins and covers. Under 48.5.

What it means. Three of Texas’s last four games are on the road, with LSU next. A loss here would be its third, and with LSU still ahead, its at-large case would be in serious trouble. A Missouri win would put it into our top 15 and the playoff conversation.

LSU 27, Alabama 24. FPI’s ratings make LSU only about a 2.5-point favorite at home, less than the 4.5-point line; ESPN gives LSU a 57 percent chance of winning. SP+’s ratings make it about 6.5, more than the line, so the models split. We are going with FPI and a closer game. LSU had a bye to prepare for three straight ranked opponents. Alabama also had a week off, but it was without its top corner, Zabien Brown, in its last game and had a player suspended. We think LSU wins a close game. LSU wins, Alabama covers. Under 52.5.

What it means. The loser has three losses. That would almost certainly end its playoff case, and for LSU it would come with Texas and Tennessee still to play.

Tennessee 27, Kentucky 20. FPI’s ratings make Tennessee about a 6-point favorite, about the same as the 5.5-point line; ESPN gives the Vols a 66.8 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 10; SP+ has Tennessee 11th and Kentucky 34th. Kentucky entered its bye leading the country in ESPN’s strength-of-record metric and has won six straight, but its wins have come by an average of 8.1 points. Its pass defense allows almost 240 yards a game. Tennessee wins and covers. Under 50.5.

What it means. This settles our biggest disagreement with the outside view. A Tennessee win confirms the order we have held, with Tennessee ahead of Alabama and Kentucky. A Kentucky win puts Kentucky ahead of Tennessee, but Alabama beat Kentucky by 28 and Tennessee beat Alabama by 16. That would be a three-team cycle, like the one with Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri, and we would have to break one result and explain which.

Notre Dame 30, Miami 27. FPI’s ratings make Notre Dame about a 3-point favorite at home, almost exactly the 3.5-point line; ESPN gives the Irish a 61.3 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 3.5, right on the line. Miami is still first in offensive SP+, and it has two Heisman candidates in Mensah and Toney. Its defense just gave up 35 to North Carolina, with soft coverage and missed tackles, according to its own coach. Notre Dame’s defense was slow to start against Navy and then held the Midshipmen to 56 yards in the second half. We think Notre Dame wins at home by a field goal, which means Miami covers. Over 55.5.

What it means. A Notre Dame loss would give it two, with SMU still to play and no conference title to fall back on. Last week we wrote that losing to Navy would end any argument for a bye; a loss to Miami would make the field itself the question. A Miami loss is less damaging. ESPN notes it would still be the ACC favorite and could reach the field as the league champion, though it would almost certainly lose the top seed.

What it means, part two. This is a rematch of last year’s game, which ended up deciding a playoff spot between these two teams. Whoever wins goes into the committee’s second ranking with a win the committee will find hard to look past.

Georgia 26, Ole Miss 24. FPI’s ratings make Georgia only about a 1.5-point favorite on the road, less than the 3-point line; ESPN gives Georgia a 55.5 percent chance. SP+’s ratings make it about 8.5, well above the line, and SP+ now has Georgia first in the country. This is the biggest split between the models on the board, and we are siding with FPI because of Georgia’s passing game. Georgia’s defense is the reason to pick it: four takeaways against Florida, and CBS notes it has already held Alabama’s Keelon Russell in check. Its passing game, 101 yards against one of the worst pass defenses in the SEC, is the reason not to lay three on the road against an Ole Miss offense that just converted 13 of 16 third downs. Georgia wins, Ole Miss covers. Under 56.5.

What it means. A Georgia loss would be its second in the SEC and would likely cost it a bye. A third loss for Ole Miss would end its playoff case, as we wrote last week.

This week’s tally. Six favorites straight up. Against the spread, three favorites (Utah, Texas, Tennessee) and three underdogs (Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss). Five unders and one over.

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