It is also the matchup our playoff preview pointed toward. Both teams earned byes with bottom-half payrolls, top-four farm systems and run prevention that ranked among the best in the field. And Birdland has a rooting interest on both sides: DL Hall pitches out of Milwaukee’s bullpen, while Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells, Jorge Mateo, and Cedric Mullins are with Tampa Bay.

How they got here

Rays: 7-2 this postseason. Tampa Bay swept the Yankees in the Division Series, allowing just 12 hits in three games, and Bryan Baker saved all three. Victor Mesa Jr.’s two-run homer in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium sent them on. The ALCS was harder. Cleveland won Game 1 7-3 and Game 3 3-2 at Progressive Field, and the Rays’ bats were quiet through three games. Then Tampa Bay won both remaining games in Cleveland and closed it out 7-3 at the Trop on Monday. Freddy Peralta won two games and was named ALCS MVP, and Junior Caminero’s first career postseason homer, a two-run shot off the foul pole against Cade Smith, broke Game 6 open (Yahoo Sports).

Brewers: 7-1 this postseason. Milwaukee beat San Diego in four Division Series games. Jackson Chourio became the franchise’s career leader in postseason RBIs at 22, and Garrett Mitchell robbed Manny Machado of a tying homer in the eighth inning of the clincher. Then came the rematch with the Dodgers, who had swept the Brewers in last year’s NLCS. Milwaukee returned the favor, rallying from 4-0 down in Game 4 to win 6-4 at Dodger Stadium. It was the first time the Dodgers had been swept in a best-of-seven since the 1966 World Series against the Orioles. Jake Bauers drove in six runs and was named NLCS MVP (FOX6).

How our bracket held up

That’s eight of 10 series winners, including all four Wild Card Series and the White Sox upset. The miss was the AL: we trusted the Yankees’ rotation over the Rays, and Tampa Bay swept them. Our champion is still standing.

Why these two

Three weeks ago we wrote that October can’t be bought, at least not the easy way. This World Series is the proof. Tampa Bay opened the season with a $90 million payroll and Milwaukee with $125 million, according to USA Today’s Opening Day figures, both less than the Orioles’ $170 million. They eliminated the Yankees ($301 million) and the Dodgers ($322 million) along the way.

What they have instead is the formula the preview’s numbers kept pointing to:

• Run prevention. Milwaukee allowed 3.81 runs per game and Tampa Bay 4.01, both well under the 4.48 MLB average, with ERA+ marks of 120 and 115.
• Farm systems that feed the big-league roster. Across the last four MLB Pipeline rankings, the Rays’ average rank was 2.75 and the Brewers’ 10.5, two of the four best in the field. Milwaukee’s rotation is built around homegrown arms in Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson, and Tampa Bay’s lineup around Caminero.
• Contact over slug. Neither lineup hits for big power. The Brewers hit the fewest homers in MLB and the Rays slugged .402, right at league average. Both get on base, put the ball in play and run.
• The toughest schedules. Each came out of the best division in its league. The AL East went .558 against everyone else, the NL Central .538.

The preview also flagged a warning on Tampa Bay: its league-best defensive efficiency masked below-average fielding by other measures. The metrics still disagree. The Rays’ infield ranks second in MLB in defensive runs saved (+58) but 27th in outs above average (-30), largely because of Taylor Walls and Junior Caminero, who was -14 OAA in April and May and +4 since. The simplest number favors Tampa Bay: it allowed an MLB-low .213 average on ground balls. The Brewers’ infield is +36 DRS, +8 OAA and .227 on grounders (CBS Sports).

The connections

These two front offices know each other well. Rasmussen debuted with the Brewers and was the headliner in the trade that sent Willy Adames to Milwaukee. Peralta pitched eight seasons for Milwaukee. NLCS MVP Jake Bauers began his career as a Rays prospect, and Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold spent nine seasons in Tampa Bay’s front office (MLB.com). Even the managers fit the theme: Kevin Cash is the longest-tenured manager in baseball and led the Rays to the 2020 World Series, while Pat Murphy has won Manager of the Year in both of his full seasons and has already outmaneuvered Craig Stammen and Dave Roberts this month.

Tale of the tape

On paper, Milwaukee has the edge almost everywhere that counts. It scored nearly 100 more runs, allowed fewer, and its run differential per game was more than twice Tampa Bay’s, even after adjusting for schedule. The NL also won the interleague series 381-334 this year, which suggests the Brewers’ numbers came against tougher competition. The biggest single gap may be on the bases: both teams run equally well, but the Brewers allowed 60 fewer steals, and runners succeeded 85% of the time against Rays catcher Liam Hicks. Tampa Bay’s counters are a deeper farm system, the best ground-ball defense in baseball and a rotation that has been the best of the postseason (Baseball-Reference, CBS Sports).

Tampa Bay Rays

The rotation has been the best of the postseason. Drew Rasmussen leads all playoff pitchers with 21 innings and a 1.29 ERA, starting with eight scoreless, 10-strikeout innings against the Yankees in which he carried a no-hitter into the eighth (ESPN). After pitching Game 5 of the ALCS, he lines up for Game 2, which likely puts All-Star Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA in 180 innings) opposite Misiorowski in Game 1 and ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta in Game 3 at the Trop. Peralta is the series’ best storyline: he spent eight seasons in Milwaukee (70-42, 3.59 ERA), was traded to the Mets last winter, struggled there, and was flipped to Tampa Bay at the deadline. He has allowed two runs in 16⅔ postseason innings, according to Yahoo Sports. Shane McClanahan (forearm) is out for the year.

The staff also has a trick no one else is using. The Rays throw more offspeed pitches than any team (21.8%) and throw them to same-handed hitters at 28.6%, against a league average of about 11%, holding hitters to a .211 wOBA on those pitches (DRaysBay).

The bullpen is thinner than it looks. Closer Bryan Baker is 5-for-5 in saves with seven scoreless innings, but his fastball has dropped from 96.3 mph in the regular season to 93.4 in the ALCS (CBS Sports). The bridge to him has been shaky: Ian Seymour walked in a run and hit a batter with the bases loaded in Game 6. Cam Booser, Kevin Kelly and ex-Oriole Tyler Wells, who struck out the side in ALCS Game 3, are the setup men, and hard-throwing rookie Brody Hopkins is an unused wild card.

The lineup wins with pressure, not power. Tampa Bay has hit only six homers this postseason. It struck out less than any team during the season, led MLB in bunt hits (49) and sacrifice bunts (45), and Chandler Simpson led baseball with 42 infield hits. Yandy Díaz has more hits than anyone this October and added a two-run homer in the clincher. Richie Palacios is 8-for-22. Caminero, though, is hitting .233/.303/.333 with one homer, even if he has hit several balls 110 mph or harder.

The concern: Velocity. The Rays had the second-lowest OPS in MLB on fastballs of 98 mph or harder, and Milwaukee’s average fastball this postseason is 98.3 mph. Jonathan Aranda hit .091 against those pitches during the season. Add the preview’s finding that Tampa Bay was one of the six weakest lineups against lefties, and Aaron Ashby and DL Hall look like problems.

Milwaukee Brewers

The ace is the question. Jacob Misiorowski finished the regular season atop the leaderboards in ERA (1.80), WHIP (0.80) and strikeouts (252), but he hasn’t lasted five innings in either postseason start. His swinging-strike rate has fallen from 19.1% to 11.5%, his spin rate is down, and he has thrown 183 innings in his first full big-league season (ESPN). He’ll have 11 days off before Game 1, which may help. Logan Henderson, whom Milwaukee refused to trade in the Skubal talks, follows him, then Robert Gasser, who was sharp in NLCS Game 3. Game 4 projects as a bullpen game. Brandon Woodruff, out since July 4 with a shoulder injury, has thrown a high-intensity bullpen session and could be added to the roster (Brew Crew Ball).

The bullpen has carried them. Every one of Milwaukee’s seven postseason wins has been credited to a reliever. Since the LCS began in 1969, no team has reached the World Series without a starter getting a win. The top four of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and ex-Oriole DL Hall have a 0.61 ERA in 29⅔ innings. Ashby has been historic: 12⅓ scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts, including the final three innings of the pennant clincher (Brew Crew Ball).

The lineup grinds, and now it slugs. The Brewers had the lowest chase rate in baseball, drew the second-most walks and hit .276 with runners in scoring position, best in the majors. After tying for the second-fewest homers in the regular season, they have hit 10 in eight playoff games (MLB.com). William Contreras has three of them and a 1.157 OPS, best of any LCS hitter. Bauers was the NLCS MVP after a 12-pitch walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and an 11th-pitch homer off Blake Snell. Brice Turang broke out against the Dodgers, and Garrett Mitchell has been the October surprise. Jackson Chourio has delivered big hits but is batting .171.

The concern: Innings. If Misiorowski and Henderson can’t get 15 outs apiece, the bullpen will again carry most of the load. Milwaukee has already won six games it trailed, a record for the first eight games of a postseason, but even the best bullpens wear down. Uribe struggled in his last NLCS outing after pitching in each of the first seven games.

Keys to the series

1. Strike-throwers vs. the most patient lineup in baseball. The Rays had the lowest walk rate in MLB and the second-highest first-pitch strike rate, and the Brewers had the lowest chase rate and swung less than any team. Whichever side bends first in long counts likely wins the close games.
2. High-leverage moments. During the season, the Rays were baseball’s best high-leverage pitching staff, and the Brewers were the best high-leverage hitting team (ESPN). With postseason teams averaging just 3.5 runs a game, those are the at-bats that will decide it.
3. The bridge to Baker. Milwaukee’s bullpen is deeper. If the Brewers can reach Tampa Bay’s middle relief, or Baker’s fading fastball, they have the edge late.
4. Small ball and the running game. These were the two best bunting and infield-hit teams in baseball. Milwaukee’s young infield, especially rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt, will be tested, while the Brewers should run freely on Rays catchers.
5. The middle games at the Trop. Games 3, 4 and 5 are in St. Petersburg, where the Rays went 55-26. Tampa Bay needs to leave Milwaukee with at least one win to make that count, likely with Martinez or Rasmussen.

Schedule, TV and odds

Milwaukee has home-field advantage after finishing with the best record in baseball. Every game starts at 8 p.m. ET on FOX and streams on FOX ONE (MLB.com).

*If necessary

The books and the models like Milwaukee. FanDuel has the Brewers at -172 to win the series and the Rays at +148, which works out to roughly a 63% to 40% split before the sportsbook’s margin. ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, whose 10,000-simulation model we cited in the playoff preview, is a little closer at 59% to 41% (ESPN). Four of CBS Sports’ five experts picked Milwaukee, two in six games and two in seven, with Kate Feldman taking the Rays in seven (CBS Sports).

The MVP board leans Milwaukee too. William Contreras (+600) and Jackson Chourio (+650) are the favorites, followed by Junior Caminero (+850), Yandy Díaz and Brice Turang (+950 each), and Jacob Misiorowski and Jake Bauers (+1000). Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP, is a long shot at +3000, and Aaron Ashby, despite his historic run, is +4500 (FanDuel). For perspective, both teams were long shots last winter, when DraftKings opened the Brewers at +2000 and the Rays at +5000 (CBS Sports). Odds are as of Oct. 20 and will move.

Our pick: Brewers in 6

We picked Milwaukee to win it all on Sept. 28th, and nothing since has changed our mind. The Brewers have the better run differential, home field, a lineup that has found its power, and a bullpen that just shut down the Dodgers for four straight games. They came out of the stronger league and the deeper division, and the schedule adjustment barely dented their numbers.

The case for Tampa Bay is real, and it starts where Milwaukee is weakest. The Rays’ rotation has been the best of the postseason, while Misiorowski and Henderson have yet to work deep into games. Peralta and Rasmussen both know this Brewers organization from the inside, and three games at the Trop give Tampa Bay a genuine edge in the middle of the series. As our preview’s series math showed, even a team that wins 60% of its games against an opponent takes a best-of-seven only about 71% of the time, and this one is closer than that.

So: Brewers in 6. Milwaukee wins Games 1 and 2 at home, the Rays take two of three at the Trop with Peralta leading the way, and the Brewers’ bullpen closes it out back at American Family Field. One way or the other, a franchise gets its first title, and the two cheapest roads to October end in the same place.

The post 2026 World Series Preview: Rays vs. Brewers appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The 49ers are 6-0 after holding off Washington on Monday night, and the Chiefs and Vikings are the only other unbeaten teams. Seven underdogs won outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points in Los Angeles and Tennessee at 7 in Indianapolis, for the Titans’ first win. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the rest of the season with blood clots in his lungs, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard.

FTN’s defensive DVOA returns to the defensive line table this week. The quarterback list returns after Week 8.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 6 Recap

Seven of 14 games went to the underdog outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points and Tennessee at 7.

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT, Thursday)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Both teams were on a short week. Seattle’s backfield had been fumbling, and Charbonnet was out. Denver was without Surtain and, we expected, Riley Moss.

What decided it: Denver’s pass rush, and Seattle’s quarterback giving the ball away. The Broncos sacked Sam Darnold five times and hit him 17 times, and forced three turnovers. Ja’Quan McMillian intercepted Darnold on Seattle’s first overtime possession, and Wil Lutz kicked the 53-yard winner. Seattle’s one fumble came from a receiver, not the backfield: Nik Bonitto punched the ball from Rashid Shaheed. Denver won with 168 yards to Seattle’s 353; Bo Nix went 17 of 27 for 107. Seattle scored the last 11 points of regulation and tied it on Jason Myers’ 34-yarder with 3 seconds left. Denver played without Surtain and safety Talanoa Hufanga, both inactive; Moss was not among the inactives.

Texans 34, Jaguars 31 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Jacksonville’s red zone after 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against DeMeco Ryans’ defense; Anton Harrison’s knee; Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Houston debut; David Montgomery’s groin.

What decided it: Jacksonville fixed its red zone, and Ryans’ defense still didn’t hold. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and Houston allowed 30 points for the third time this season in Ryans’ first game back calling the defense. The Texans didn’t sack Lawrence once. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns, two to Foster Moreau. A too-many-men penalty on a Houston punt, Jacksonville’s third straight week of costly flags, kept one scoring drive alive. Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, setting up Cam Little’s 60-yard tying field goal. Stroud answered with a drive to Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yarder at the gun. Harrison caught three passes for 34 yards. With Montgomery inactive, Woody Marks ran for 56.

Bears 31, Falcons 23

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Caleb Williams’ return and Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; Atlanta’s run defense after Baltimore ran for 208. Flips if Williams sits or Penix plays.

What decided it: Williams. Penix played, so half our condition came true, but Williams more than offset it. He completed his first 12 passes and finished 30 of 36 for 305 yards, and Chicago held the ball for more than 40 minutes. Kyler Gordon, activated from the physically unable to perform list the day before, had three sacks and two forced fumbles, the last ending Atlanta’s comeback with 2:54 left. Rookie Zachariah Branch lost two fumbles on returns. Chicago led 31-7 before Penix’s late touchdowns. The Bears overcame 12 penalties for 133 yards.

Browns 13, Ravens 10

Box score · Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Ravens

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against Verse and possibly Mason Graham; Cleveland’s eight sacks allowed, Howard and Concepcion.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and neither did Jurgens; Vega Ioane started at center for a third straight week. Baltimore led 10-0 in the first quarter on Tyler Huntley’s fourth-down touchdown pass to rookie tight end Josh Cuevas and a Tyler Loop field goal, then didn’t score again. Cleveland held Derrick Henry to 58 yards on 17 carries, and Carson Schwesinger forced his fumble at the Baltimore 35 with 12:45 left; Audric Estime scored the tying touchdown four minutes later. After going 1 for 9 on third down through three quarters, the Browns converted 5 of 8 in the fourth, and Andre Szmyt won it from 37 yards at the gun, after a Ravens block of his earlier try was wiped out by an offside penalty. Huntley finished 19 of 31 for 165 yards. Baltimore sacked Deshaun Watson five times, with Trey Hendrickson back from finger surgery, and the teams finished two yards apart, 237 to 235. (Our full review)

Titans 26, Colts 20

Box score · Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · Our pick: Colts

Expected: A Titans offense averaging 10.4 points against a Colts offense that settles for field goals.

What decided it: Both halves of that came true, and the Colts still lost. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 232-64 in the first half but led only 13-0 after two field goals. The Titans’ offense scored one touchdown; defense and special teams did the rest. Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble on the first play of the second half. Chimere Dike’s 58-yard punt return set up the tying score, and Oluwafemi Oladejo returned a blocked punt for the lead. Joey Slye kicked four field goals. Daniel Jones threw two interceptions in scoring position. It was Robert Saleh’s first win in Tennessee, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday.

Patriots 26, Jets 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Bailey and the eight-sack front against a line possibly without Will Campbell; A.J. Brown’s possible return; New England’s thin cornerbacks.

What decided it: The Jets’ pass rush didn’t show up, and their offense stalled near the goal line. A week after eight sacks, New York had none, even as New England lost Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown to injuries during the game. Christian Gonzalez returned at cornerback, and the Patriots held the Jets to 0 for 3 in the red zone. Charles Woods intercepted Geno Smith in the fourth quarter, Smith’s first of the season. Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes. Brown’s return was rough: three catches for 27 yards on 10 targets, with three drops.

Saints 34, Giants 27

Box score · Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 a carry against a Saints offense held to 142 yards; New York’s kicking; Tyler Shough’s hand.

What decided it: One kickoff return. The Giants led 10-0 late in the first half. After Daniel Carlson’s 58-yard field goal, Isaiah Stalbird forced Charlie Jones to fumble the kickoff, and New Orleans scored 34 straight points. Martin Emerson intercepted Jameis Winston twice, and Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy, whose fourth-down throw into the end zone fell incomplete in the final seconds. Shough threw three touchdown passes and ran for another; he says his broken hand affects only handoffs. Cam Skattebo didn’t get a carry, and the Giants’ backs totaled 34 yards. The model was right.

Panthers 25, Eagles 14

Box score · Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Panthers

Expected: Carolina’s passing offense against an Eagles defense that fades late, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs; Ekwonu and Moton back.

What decided it: Both held, and Jalen Hurts’ absence made it easier. Philadelphia had 37 yards in the first quarter and punted on its first five drives, then was shut out in the third quarter; it has six third-quarter points all season. Carolina pulled away in the second half. Bryce Young threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns to Tommy Tremble, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 120, including a 19-yard run on fourth-and-1. Tanner McKee went 26 of 45 for 215 yards. Carolina won despite a franchise-record 13 penalties for 149 yards.

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT)

Box score · Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Irving and a 241-yard run game against Pittsburgh’s run defense; Mayfield not back before Week 7.

What decided it: Pittsburgh took away the run, and Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback couldn’t make up for it. With no ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in his third start, went 22 of 43 for 164 yards and was sacked six times. His two fourth-quarter interceptions set up field goals as Pittsburgh came back from 16-3. Aaron Rodgers, sacked five times through three quarters, led four fourth-quarter scoring drives and threw the winner to rookie Germie Bernard with 3:15 left in overtime. That touchdown tied him with Peyton Manning for third all time. Jalen Ramsey’s fourth-down sack ended it.

Cardinals 18, Rams 16

Box score · Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Arizona’s league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass allowed; the Rams’ kicking.

What decided it: The Rams’ kicking, though not the way we expected. New kicker Blake Grupe hurt his knee making a tackle on a first-quarter kickoff, which left the Rams going for two (they failed) and their punter kicking an extra point. The pass defense we worried about held Los Angeles to 286 yards, much of it by attacking the left side with Alaric Jackson suspended. The Rams didn’t sack Jacoby Brissett on 35 dropbacks and failed twice on fourth down. Matthew Stafford’s touchdown with 47 seconds left put them ahead. A long completion and an unnecessary-roughness penalty set up Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal at the gun.

Chiefs 22, Chargers 6

Box score · Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: A pass rush that pressures without finishing, against four rookie linemen; Herbert’s turnovers.

What decided it: Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers, without Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika and Tre’ Harris, managed two field goals and 259 yards and lost Ladd McConkey to a concussion. Justin Herbert threw his league-leading eighth interception. The Kansas City pass rush finally finished, with four sacks to end a three-game sackless streak. Harrison Butker missed an extra point and a field goal. The Chiefs are 5-0; the Chargers are 0-6 heading into their bye.

Bills 33, Raiders 30

Box score · Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: A Raiders run game held to 38 yards in New England; Buffalo’s thin cornerbacks; Spencer Brown’s back.

What decided it: Both concerns showed up, and Buffalo’s offense covered for them. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 22 yards, but Kirk Cousins threw for 313 against the Bills’ secondary, and Las Vegas tied it at 23 with 8:07 left. Buffalo answered with a 66-yard drive capped by James Cook’s 3-yard run. Cook ran for 95 yards without a fumble, and the Bills had their first turnover-free game in a month. Josh Allen’s shovel pass to Keon Coleman tied Jim Kelly’s franchise touchdown record. The Raiders scored touchdowns on two of five red-zone trips.

Packers 23, Cowboys 13

Box score · Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run; no Parsons; Lamb’s quadriceps.

What decided it: Third downs, and Dak Prescott’s interceptions. Green Bay came in last in third-down conversions and Dallas last in third-down defense; the Packers converted nine of their first 10. Evan Williams and rookie Brandon Cisse intercepted Prescott on consecutive possessions inside the Green Bay 30, the second when Lamb slipped. Green Bay led 17-0 at half. Jordan Love threw for 276 yards and ran for a touchdown, and receivers dropped three more potential scores. The line was right.

49ers 23, Commanders 17 (Monday)

Box score · Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: Daniels’ scrambling against the defense that sacked Darnold five times; Washington’s second-half defense; Deebo Samuel’s hamstring.

What decided it: San Francisco’s first half, and Washington’s second-half defense, which held this time. The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first two drives, led 20-3 at half and outgained Washington 303-90 before the break. Brock Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards, with a touchdown to George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey ran for two. After halftime San Francisco managed three first downs and 72 yards, and Jayden Daniels threw two touchdown passes to make it 23-17. Malik Mustapha broke up a fourth-down pass to Treylon Burks near the goal line with 1:54 left, and Washington’s last drive ended with an intentional grounding and a sack. Purdy passed 1,500 attempts and became the highest-rated passer in NFL history. With Deebo Samuel out, Mike Evans caught three passes for 94 yards before leaving with Achilles tendinitis; Terry McLaurin was carted off with a knee injury.

Power Rankings

The top two hold. The biggest moves are the Rams (down 6) and the Falcons (down 5), and the Browns (up 5). Our line rankings count here: both Rams lines rank in our top 11, which keeps a 2-4 team at 14, while both Packers lines rank in the bottom four, which holds a 4-2 team behind them.

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 6. Outside rankings: ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.

1. 49ers (1). 6-0, first in all four lists, and Brock Purdy is now the highest-rated passer in NFL history. They were held to 72 yards after halftime Monday, and Mike Evans left with Achilles tendinitis.
2. Chiefs (2). Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and the pass rush finally finished, with four sacks. Our second offensive line, but both starting tackles are hurt going to Seattle.
3. Bills (4). Up one. Seven scores on nine full drives in Las Vegas and their first turnover-free game in a month, behind our top offensive line. The defense has allowed 64 points in two weeks (Prisco).
4. Vikings (7). Up three on a bye at 5-0, now sixth in DVOA. Second on our defensive line list, 21st on offense.
5. Jaguars (3). Down two after losing in London. Still third in DVOA, but penalties have now cost them three touchdowns this season (Michael DiRocco, ESPN).
6. Patriots (9). Up three after a third straight win, but they finished Sunday without three offensive linemen and play Thursday in Chicago.
7. Broncos (11). Up four. Five sacks and three takeaways beat Seattle, and the offense is 31st on third down (ESPN).
8. Seahawks (5). Down three after a second loss in five days. Our top defensive line, but Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in four games (Brady Henderson, ESPN).
9. Bears (13). Up four. Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 in his return, and Kyler Gordon had three sacks off the physically unable to perform list.
10. Ravens (6). Down four. Ten points in Cleveland without Lamar Jackson, and FTN gives them the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
11. Bengals (12). Up one on a bye. Fifth in DVOA and fifth on our offensive line list.
12. Lions (10). Down two on a bye, with both lines in our top 11. The defense is still the problem: 25th in defensive DVOA.
13. Panthers (16). Up three. Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard beat a Hurts-less Eagles team, and Carolina is seventh in DVOA, though its defensive line is 30th.
14. Rams (8). Down six after losing at home to Arizona as 12.5-point favorites. Both lines rank in our top 11, which keeps them here, but Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Prisco) and their new kicker hurt his knee.
15. Packers (17). Up two after a third straight win, allowing 14 points or fewer in each. Both lines rank in the bottom four, which holds them behind the Rams.
16. Texans (20). Up four. C.J. Stroud’s London drive kept them alive at 2-4; ninth in DVOA and fourth on our defensive line list.
17. Steelers (14). Down three despite winning: Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times in three quarters in Tampa before his late rally.
18. Browns (23). Up five. First place in the AFC North at 4-2 on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive, behind our last-ranked offensive line.
19. Raiders (19). Held after a third straight loss. The line is back in our top 8; the run game isn’t.
20. Falcons (15). Down five. Down 31-7 at home to Chicago, with two lost return fumbles; third on our defensive line list.
21. Cowboys (18). Down three. Two more Dak Prescott interceptions, and the worst rushing start since 1989 (Todd Archer, ESPN).
22. Giants (21). Down one after blowing a 10-0 lead. John Harbaugh hasn’t named a starter between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy.
23. Jets (26). Up three, mostly as others fell. Zero sacks a week after eight, and 0 for 3 in the red zone.
24. Buccaneers (25). Up one after another one-score loss, their fifth. Sixteenth in DVOA.
25. Eagles (22). Down three. Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and they have lost four straight.
26. Cardinals (29). Up three. Six Chad Ryland field goals beat the Rams in Los Angeles.
27. Saints (27). Held. Won in New York but nearly gave back a 24-point lead.
28. Colts (24). Down four. Lost at home to the winless Titans, and the general manager was fired Monday. Their defensive line ranks last.
29. Commanders (28). Down one. Came back to within six in San Francisco after trailing 20-3, and lost Terry McLaurin to what they fear is a significant knee injury.
30. Titans (31). Up one with their first win: six sacks, three takeaways and two special teams scores.
31. Chargers (30). Down one. 0-6 into the bye, with Justin Herbert’s league-high eighth interception.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Bye, and still winless.

Offensive Lines

The Bills hold No. 1, the Chiefs pass the 49ers, and the Raiders return. The Lions drop out after their bye, and the Patriots are held out again, now for more than one injury. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (ESPN). Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and the Week 6 box scores, and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: second in run block win rate and third in pass block, and the second-best run game against expectation. Spencer Brown played through his back in Las Vegas.
• Chiefs: up one, with the best yards per carry in the league and a sack rate two points under what their opponents allow. Both starting tackles are the worry: Josh Simmons has a bulging disk and Jaylon Moore left Sunday with a concussion, and Andy Reid suggested Simmons won’t be ready for Seattle (Nate Taylor, ESPN).
• 49ers: second in pass block win rate and a 2.8% sack rate; down one only because Kansas City ran for 150 on Sunday.
• Rams: held, though Arizona went after backup left tackle David Quessenberry with Alaric Jackson suspended.
• Bengals: first in run block win rate, but 3.6 yards a carry is barely above what their opponents allow.
• Raiders: back in. First in pass block win rate with a low sack rate, but still 3.0 yards a carry, nearly a yard below expectation. Caleb Rogers replaced Jackson Powers-Johnson at right guard (Ryan McFadden, ESPN).
• Bears: down two after four sacks allowed in Atlanta; right guard Jonah Jackson left with a hip injury.
• Steelers: down one after five sacks allowed in Tampa.
• Out: Lions. Eleventh on the numbers, on bye.
• Held out by injury: Patriots, fifth on the numbers. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday, after Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten went to injured reserve and with Will Campbell’s knee; New England has started three line combinations in six games and is likely to start a fourth Thursday (Mike Reiss, ESPN).
• First out: Patriots, Colts, Lions.
• Charting against results: Cowboys (2.8% sack rate, but 31st in run block win rate) and Browns (last; a 12.1% sack rate, the worst in the league).
• Watch in Week 7: the Chiefs’ tackles against Seattle’s front, first on our defensive list; the Patriots’ line on a short week; the length of Jackson’s suspension.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The top two hold, the Falcons climb, the Ravens return and the 49ers drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s defensive DVOA is back in the table.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better). Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (FTN); negative is better, and it rates the whole defense, not only the line.

• Seahawks: first in pass rush win rate and a sack rate 2.5 points above expectation. The offense, not the front, lost in Denver.
• Vikings: bye. Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.
• Falcons: up two, second in run stop win rate. Linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) were hurt Sunday; neither is a lineman, but both play behind this front.
• Texans: down one after London, where they didn’t sack Trevor Lawrence (Lindsay Jones, the Ringer).
• Lions: bye; third in pass rush win rate. Detroit’s poor defensive DVOA is the secondary, not the front.
• Chargers: held. Third in run stop win rate on an 0-6 team; Bud Dupree (neck) was inactive.
• Ravens: back in, tenth and ninth in the win rates and above expectation on sacks.
• Broncos: held after five sacks and 17 quarterback hits Thursday (AP), without Pat Surtain II behind them.
• Out: 49ers. Tenth on the numbers, with Nick Bosa still out.
• Held out by injury: Browns, fifth on the numbers. Mason Graham has missed two straight games and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive again, though Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight (Daniel Oyefusi, ESPN).
• First out: Browns, 49ers, Rams (Myles Garrett still on injured reserve, and Kobie Turner and Poona Ford hurt Sunday).
• Giants: 27th on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Bears move into the NFC field outright and the Rams drop to first out; the Ravens no longer win the AFC North alone. Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 92 wins and that tie banked through Week 6. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, then the AFC North winner; wild cards Patriots, Broncos and the AFC North runner-up; first out, the Steelers or Texans.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Bears, then the Lions and Seahawks; first out, the Rams or Packers.
• Ties we could not project: Baltimore and Cincinnati for the North; the order of the three AFC wild cards; the Lions and Seahawks for the sixth and seventh seeds; the Steelers and Texans, and the Rams and Packers, for first out.

What moved:

• Up: Texans +2 (two straight division wins, ninth in DVOA and fifth in FTN’s DAVE); Bears, Packers, Browns, Titans, Saints and Cardinals +1.
• Down: Eagles -1 (Jalen Hurts out for the season); Rams -1 (Davante Adams expected out 6 to 10 weeks, per Prisco); Ravens, Jaguars, Seahawks, Colts, Falcons and Chargers -1.
• Cowboys 9-8: held, and still the NFC East winner. ESPN’s Football Power Index makes Dallas a 66.9% favorite for the division at 2-4 (Ben Solak, ESPN).
• Ravens 10-7: depends on Lamar Jackson’s ankle, against the toughest remaining schedule by DVOA (FTN).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 7:

• Bears 11-6 against the Patriots (10-7) on Thursday.
• Ravens 10-7 against the Bengals (10-7), with Jackson’s status unsettled.
• Seahawks 10-7 against the Chiefs on Sunday night.
• Lions 10-7 against the Packers (9-8).
• Browns 8-9 at Tennessee, and Rams 9-8 at Las Vegas (8-9).

Week 7 Preview

The line and the model split on three games; we take the line twice (Browns, Ravens) and the model once (Chiefs). Jacksonville, Buffalo, the Chargers and Washington are on bye.

Patriots at Bears (Thursday)

Line: Bears -3, 50.5 · ESPN: Bears 58.9%

Key to the Game: New England’s offensive line on a short week. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday’s win with injuries, and Romeo Doubs left with a shoulder injury. Chicago’s defense just got Kyler Gordon back, and his nickel blitz produced three sacks in 16 snaps. On the other side, Caleb Williams is 54 of 60 on throws of 10 or fewer air yards this season (the Ringer), against a Patriots secondary with Christian Gonzalez back.

Our Pick: Bears.

Steelers vs. Saints (Paris)

Line: Steelers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Steelers 60.1%

Key to the Game: Whether New Orleans can play four quarters. The Saints scored on five straight possessions against the Giants, then nearly gave back a 24-point lead. Pittsburgh is without receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson, so Aaron Rodgers is leaning on DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard. Tyler Shough is playing through a broken nonthrowing hand, and right guard Cesar Ruiz left Sunday with a knee injury.

Our Pick: Steelers.

49ers at Falcons

Line: 49ers -4.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 79.4%

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s front against a 49ers team coming off Monday night. Michael Penix Jr. was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks against Chicago, and the Falcons lost linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) during the game. San Francisco is thin at receiver: Mike Evans left Monday with Achilles tendinitis, with Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk already out (CBS Sports). The model is far more confident than the line, giving San Francisco about what it gave New England at -7 last week.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Browns at Titans

Line: Browns -1.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Titans 50.0%

Key to the Game: Tennessee’s defense against a Browns offense that wins late. The Titans had six sacks and three takeaways against Indianapolis, and Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble and had two sacks. Cleveland scored 13 points against Baltimore and won on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive of the season. Mason Graham has missed two games; Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight.

Our Pick: Browns. The line over the model: ESPN calls it a coin flip, and Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown last week.

Colts at Vikings

Line: Vikings -5.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Vikings 64.9%

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers. He is tied for the league lead with nine (ESPN), and two came in scoring position against Tennessee. Minnesota comes off its bye at 5-0, with a defense that blitzes on 68% of dropbacks. The Colts lost Sauce Gardner to a calf injury, played without Tyler Warren and fired their general manager on Monday.

Our Pick: Vikings.

Dolphins at Jets

Line: Jets -4.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Jets 65.5%

Key to the Game: The Jets’ red zone. New York went 0 for 3 inside the 20 against New England and has 112 points in six games. Miami is 0-5 and comes off its bye. A week after eight sacks, the Jets’ pass rush had none.

Our Pick: Jets.

Buccaneers at Panthers

Line: Panthers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Panthers 63.2%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, which ranks 26th in success rate (the Ringer), against a Carolina offense that ran for 120 with Chuba Hubbard. Without a ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in Tampa. Baker Mayfield’s thumb is the question to watch. Carolina needs to cut its 13 penalties, and Jaelan Phillips aggravated a hamstring injury.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Bengals at Ravens

Line: Ravens -3, 51.5 · ESPN: Bengals 54.3%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle. Without him, Baltimore scored 10 points in Cleveland, and Tyler Huntley went 13 of 24 for 107 yards over the last three quarters. Cincinnati comes off its bye, and Derrick Henry has fumbled four times since the start of last season (ESPN).

Our Pick: Ravens. The line over the model: the pick assumes Jackson plays, and flips to Cincinnati if he sits.

Giants at Texans

Line: Texans -10, 42.5 · ESPN: Texans 84.7%

Key to the Game: The Giants’ quarterback. John Harbaugh hasn’t said whether Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy starts after McCarthy threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter. The Giants have fumbled in every game. C.J. Stroud now has Marvin Harrison Jr. alongside Jaylin Noel and Nico Collins, against a Giants secondary that lost Greg Newsome to a concussion.

Our Pick: Texans.

Broncos at Cardinals

Line: Broncos -4.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 69.8%

Key to the Game: Denver’s offense. The Broncos rank 26th in scoring and 31st on third down, and went 3 of 26 on third down across their last two games (ESPN). Arizona leads the league with seven fourth-down stops and just held the Rams to 286 yards. Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is the Arizona injury to watch.

Our Pick: Broncos. Denver’s defense has carried an offense that can’t move the ball, and Arizona’s defense just showed it can.

Packers at Lions

Line: Lions -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Lions 59.2%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s defense, worst in the league in EPA per drive allowed (the Ringer), against a Packers offense that dropped three potential touchdowns Sunday. Josh Jacobs comes off the commissioner’s exempt list. Green Bay has allowed 14 points or fewer in three straight games, and Detroit comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Lions. We are taking the home team off a bye, not a judgment that Detroit’s defense has been fixed.

Rams at Raiders

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 66.5%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ kicking again. Blake Grupe hurt his knee in his debut, five days after Harrison Mevis was cut. Their pass rush converts pressure into sacks at the second-worst rate in the league (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Pete Prisco, CBS Sports). Ashton Jeanty has been held under 3.0 yards a carry in four of six games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chiefs at Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 52.2%

Key to the Game: Seattle’s protection. Denver hit Sam Darnold 17 times and sacked him five times, and Mike Macdonald said afterward his quarterback is getting hit far too often. Kansas City may start two undrafted rookie tackles, with Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore hurt (Nate Taylor, ESPN), against the front that tops our defensive line list. Kansas City’s pass rush ended its sackless streak with four against the Chargers, and Kenneth Walker leads the league in rushing. Seattle has had 10 days since Thursday.

Our Pick: Chiefs. The model over the line: Kansas City is 5-0 and Seattle has lost two straight, though Seattle’s defensive line was first on our list last week.

Cowboys at Eagles (Monday)

Line: Cowboys -4.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 68.8%

Key to the Game: Tanner McKee. With Jalen Hurts expected to miss the season, McKee was pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks against Carolina. The Eagles have scored six third-quarter points all season. Dallas needs Dak Prescott to stop throwing interceptions: two more Sunday, after two in the second half of Week 5.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Backups went 0-4. Four backup quarterbacks started Sunday, and all four lost (the Ringer): Jalon Daniels in Tampa Bay, Tanner McKee in Philadelphia, Tyler Huntley in Baltimore and Jameis Winston for the Giants. Winston was the only one benched. With Hurts out for the season, Mayfield’s thumb unresolved and Jackson’s ankle still a question, at least three of those teams could start backups again in Week 7.

2. Penalties piled up on the winners. Carolina was flagged 13 times for 149 yards, a franchise record, and still won by 11. Chicago won through 12 penalties for 133 yards. Green Bay and Dallas combined for 22. Jacksonville’s too-many-men penalty on a punt extended a Houston touchdown drive, its third straight week of costly flags.

3. Winning without the offense. Arizona beat the Rams without a touchdown, on six Chad Ryland field goals. Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown in a 26-point game. Denver won with 168 yards, its first win under 175 yards since 1983 (CBS Sports). All three leaned on defenses that forced turnovers or fourth-down stops.

The post 2026 NFL: Week 6 Review, Week 7 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Banner is 41, a Brooklyn native, and he has spent 18 seasons in baseball operations. He was the Cubs’ Assistant General Manager, a job he’d held since 2024 after running their Player Development department from late 2021 through 2023 and arriving in Chicago as Vice President of Special Projects in December 2020.

Before that, two years with the Mets as Executive Director of Player Development. Before that, eleven years with the Red Sox – a fellow in 2007 who became a Player Development Assistant, then Amateur Scouting Coordinator, then Assistant Director of Player Personnel, then Vice President of Player Personnel, overseeing professional scouting in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Mexico. Boston won the World Series in 2007, 2013 and 2018. He was there for all three.

He played four years of outfield at Amherst, captained the team in 2007, and got into the game because his college coach knew Ben Cherington, who had played for the same coach eleven years earlier.

That’s a real resume. But the more interesting thing about Monday’s announcement is the job description.

Read The Title Carefully

From the Orioles’ statement, Banner will “lead the organization’s player development, coaching and performance efforts, while also partnering with Elias on strategy, staffing, and talent acquisition.”

Player development. Coaching. Performance. Those are his. Strategy and acquisition he shares.

Now put that next to the rest of what’s happened in that building over the last six weeks.

Matt Blood is gone. The Vice President of Player and Staff Development, a longtime and well-regarded executive, mutually parted ways with the organization in September.

Sig Mejdal has been moved. Elias’s first hire after leaving Houston, the Assistant General Manager who built the analytics department, is no longer overseeing it. He’ll now oversee “the research of emerging technologies and innovative practices across baseball operations,” which is a real job and also not the job he had.

And now a General Manager has been hired whose primary portfolio is player development.

Mike Elias has looked at an organization that went 79-82 after finishing last in 2025, and he has concluded that the thing that broke is the machine that was supposed to turn prospects into major leaguers.

He’s right.

The Evidence Was On The Field All Year

Baltimore hit the ball harder than the league average in 2026. Team exit velocity of 89.9 mph against an MLB mark of 88.8. A hard-hit rate of 42.6% against 38.6%. A barrel rate of 8.7% against 7.7%.

Their expected wOBA was .323. Their actual wOBA was .313.

They hit it harder than almost anybody and scored less than they should have. Meanwhile Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo, Jackson Holliday and Dylan Beavers – four first-round picks and the best catching prospect in baseball – produced exactly zero seasons of a 110 wRC+ between them.

At some point that stops being five separate coincidences and starts being an organizational result.

The Orioles had the No. 1 farm system in baseball four years running through the 2023 preseason. Eight Top 100 prospects that spring. Six were position players. Gunnar Henderson became a star. Jordan Westburg became a very good player when healthy. Joey Ortiz is in Milwaukee. The rest are 24 to 26 years old and still being described in terms of what they might become.

The rebuilding playbook worked right up until the part where the players were supposed to turn into a winning team. That’s the gap Banner has been hired to close, and the Orioles are telling you so in the press release.

And there’s a more specific version of the mandate, which came out of our playoff preview and is worth putting in front of him on day one.

Of those eight Top 100 prospects in 2023, only two were pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Both have been traded. Hall threw a 1.91 ERA out of Milwaukee’s bullpen this year. Tyler Wells had a 1.50 ERA for Tampa Bay after the deadline. Cedric Mullins started in center for the Rays because of his glove, and Adley Rutschman was the best defensive catcher in the field.

Every team that earned a bye got there by keeping runs off the board, and they did it with arms they grew. Cleveland’s 2023 Top 100 group had Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Daniel Espino; the Guardians turned that into a 109 ERA+. Milwaukee took Jacob Misiorowski in the second round in 2022 and he posted a 1.80 ERA this year.

Baltimore’s system is back to No. 7, and for the first time in this era three of its four Top 100 prospects are pitchers: Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa and Caden Hunter.

That’s the job. Not “improve player development” in the abstract. Turn those three into Orioles starters rather than trade chips, and don’t repeat what happened with Rodriguez and Hall.

What He Actually Brings

Two things, and the second one is less obvious than the first.

The Player Development background is the headline. He ran the Mets’ farm system and the Cubs’ farm system, and he came up inside a Red Sox organization that was an early adopter of things that are now standard. Jon Meoli wrote this week about interviewing Xander Bogaerts in Frederick years ago and being told the kid had to finish his vision training first – a crude laptop program where a dot crossed a strike zone and hitters had a fraction of a second to react. That was Boston in the early 2010s, pushing at the edges while traditional coaches ran everything else.

Banner’s own description of the work is worth reading, because it isn’t what you’d expect from an analytics hire: “I don’t think you want to move to any one side. I think we do try to stay grounded in the evidence, but at the end of the day, they’re human beings. There needs to be a human touch, a care, a belief in each other and a culture created.”

He’s also said, in a long Executive Access Q&A with MLB.com, that 2021 was the year he stopped believing he could just look at a player and know. That’s a useful instinct in a front office that’s been accused of the opposite problem.

But the credential that actually matters is Pete Crow-Armstrong, and it isn’t for the reason you’d assume.

Banner is credited with the Cubs’ acquisition of Crow-Armstrong from the Mets in the 2021 Javier Báez deal, and Crow-Armstrong is the likely National League MVP. Fine. Plenty of executives have a trade on their ledger.

The relevant part is what happened next. Crow-Armstrong arrived in Chicago as a prospect and got better — through the exact player development department Banner was running in 2022 and 2023. A kid came in with a grade on him and left as the best player in his league.

That is precisely the thing Baltimore has not been able to do. The Orioles have been excellent at acquiring prospects and have spent two seasons watching them arrive at 24 and 25 and hover. If you’re looking for the single data point that justifies this hire, it isn’t the Báez trade. It’s that one of the best players in baseball was developed on his watch.

Now the part that complicates it. During Banner’s time in Chicago, the Cubs did something Baltimore has never done: they spent their system. Fifteen players traded away who now appear on other organizations’ Top 30 lists, a farm ranking that fell from eighth to 28th in eighteen months, and a playoff berth at the end of it.

I’ve argued all fall that the criticism of Elias is no longer about talent evaluation but about conviction – an executive who accumulates and doesn’t convert. So on its face, hiring from an organization that converted is exactly right.

Except look at what the conversion actually bought. The Cubs got swept out of the Wild Card round. Two games, and then the winter. That is the entire return on eighteen months of selling the farm.

They weren’t alone in it. When we previewed the playoff field, the four worst farm systems in it belonged to the Yankees at 27th, the Cubs at 28th, Houston at 29th and San Diego at 30th. All four had made October. None of them reached a Championship Series. Houston is the loudest version: 29th on five straight lists, $246 million in payroll, a division won at 81-81, and then a home sweep at the hands of a White Sox club that spent less than half as much.

The four teams that earned first-round byes — the Rays, Guardians, Brewers and Dodgers — had the four best average farm rankings in the entire field. They turned out to be, exactly, the four teams that played in a Championship Series. Three of them got there on bottom-four payrolls: Cleveland at $70 million, Tampa Bay at $90 million, Milwaukee at $125 million.

Spending the farm buys a seat in the tournament. It does not buy a run through it.

So Baltimore has hired a development executive from a club that won by trading away its development. Both things are on his resume – a player he developed into a star, and a system he watched get spent. Only one of those models was still playing in the second week of October. Which one walked through the door with him is the question, and the answer probably depends less on Banner than on the man he reports to.

What It Says About Elias

Elias was promoted to President of Baseball Operations before the 2025 season, quietly, with no announcement. He’s been carrying both titles ever since, and he said in September that he wanted help:

“We have a small operation. It has been. I’ve seen in some metrics it’s like 29th in the league in terms of size in baseball operations… And there’s parts of our baseball operation that I think I could use some different voices and ideas in more than others.”

Then the tell: “I don’t know that I want to get into it here on the stage, but you’ll probably be able to see as these hires come in where we’re looking for some impact.”

We can see. He told us where to look and then looked there.

I wrote a piece on August 3rd under the headline “Yeah, Time For Elias To Go.” I took the headline back in “The Winter Ahead” and said the critique of the process still stood.

Ownership has now given its own answer, and it’s neither of mine. They didn’t fire him and they didn’t simply back him. They made his department bigger and handed a third of it to somebody else.

I’d note two things about that. The first is that it’s genuinely to Elias’s credit. Handing the Player Development department to an outside hire with his own resume and his own constituency is not the move of a man protecting his territory. He identified the weakness as his own and gave it away.

The second is that it’s a hedge, and everybody involved knows it. Elias has had eight years. The farm is loaded again, the books are the cleanest in the sport, and the team has finished under .500 twice in a row after an AL East title in 2023. If 2027 goes badly, there is now an experienced, well-regarded executive sitting one chair over who was a finalist for the A’s top job this month and who interviewed for other lead roles.

That’s not a prediction. It’s just how front offices work. You could argue that Elias is placing a potential scapegoat in-front of him, but I don’t think that argument has a lot of merit.
If things don’t improve for the O’s in ’27, Banner won’t be out the door before Elias.

What It Says About Rubenstein

David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti authorized a franchise-record $170 million payroll last winter – 16th in baseball, ahead of Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, the White Sox and Cleveland, three of which earned first-round byes this month – and got a losing season out of it.

Their response was not to fire the President of Baseball Operations. It was to make his department bigger.

Elias said the owners “are looking to build” and have been “very supportive.” Meoli’s point this week is the right one: Banner’s job isn’t only development, it’s capital allocation. The Red Sox teams he came up in didn’t just carry high payrolls, they pressed advantages wherever the rules let them — most famously by blowing past everyone on draft bonuses before the pool system existed.

That specific lever is gone. But the question of where else to deploy Rubenstein’s money, beyond the major league roster, is exactly the kind of thing a 29th-ranked baseball operations department has never been able to ask.

What It Means For The Two Offseason Plans

We laid out two versions of this winter a few weeks ago. Option 1 runs the group back — re-sign Rogers, add a catcher who plays, find Mayo at-bats in right field. Option 2 is the wholesale one – Rogers walks, Holliday and Beavers go out in a package for a controllable arm, Varsho in center, Basallo catching 110 games.

The Banner hire doesn’t pick between them. But it bears on both.

Go back to the “Best Case, Worst Case, Likely” exercise. Basallo at 3.0-3.5 wins. Cowser at 2.5-3.0. Westburg at 2.5-3.0. Holliday at 2.0-2.5. Mayo at 1.5-2.0. Beavers at 1.0-1.5. Add Alonso and a Henderson bounce-back and the position group lands somewhere in the low twenties, which I called sufficient rather than good.

Every one of those likely cases is a development assumption. The best cases – Basallo as a 5-win All-Star catcher, Cowser as a 4.5-win center fielder – are the difference between 87 wins and 92. I wrote at the time that you can’t build a 95 win team by waiting for four of them to hit their ceiling simultaneously.

Banner’s actual job is to make that less true.

Which creates one real tension with Option 2. That plan trades Holliday and Beavers. You could reasonably argue the Orioles just hired the person whose entire brief is figuring out why those two haven’t developed fully, and that selling both in his first winter is the organization answering a question before its new answer-finder has unpacked.

I don’t think that should stop a good trade. But if Baltimore is going to move young position players in December, somebody should at least ask the new guy first.

Does This Put Seiya Suzuki In Play?

It’s an obvious immediate question.

Suzuki is a free agent after five years with the Cubs, which means Banner was in that building for every one of them. And it isn’t only the Chicago overlap. Banner’s last two years in Boston, 2017 and 2018, were spent overseeing professional scouting in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Mexico – which is to say he was working that market while Suzuki was establishing himself with Hiroshima. He scouted the player before the Cubs signed him and then watched him for five seasons from inside the front office.

That’s an unusual amount of proprietary information about one free agent.

Suzuki is coming off of a 4.6 fWAR season, and he’s an exceptional fielder.

Both of our offseason plans said every available dollar goes to run prevention and none of it goes to more offense. Suzuki is the rare player who doesn’t force that choice – he’s a run-prevention signing that happens to carry a 134 wRC+.

He’s also right-handed, which addresses the structural hole in both plans. Cowser bats left-handed and struggles against lefties. Beavers bats left-handed. Basallo bats left-handed. Henderson bats left-handed. In Option 2, Varsho bats left-handed too. CBS made the point this fall that there are shockingly few quality right-handed hitters in the game right now. The Orioles need one badly.

Where he’d play is clean. Put Suzuki in left, keep Cowser in center, leave Mayo in right. That swaps out Beavers and his -9 Outs Above Average for one of the best corner-outfield gloves in the sport and a middle-of-the-order bat, and it does it without disturbing the Mayo-to-right-field plan which I think will get consideration from the O’s.

A 134 wRC+ with Gold Glove defense in a corner is a $25-28 million a year player, even at 32. And the qualifying offer figure for this winter came in at $23.15 million. Suzuki will get one, is expected to reject it, and whoever signs him forfeits a pick.

Our Option 1 budget was $66 million total: Mize at $18M, Rogers at $21M, Jeffers at $19M, Robert at $6M, a depth outfielder at $2M. Suzuki at $26 million costs you roughly the catcher and the fourth outfielder. For a team whose catching spot donated a lineup slot twice a week last season, that’s a genuinely hard trade, and I’d probably still take Jeffers.

Which means Suzuki is a $200-million-payroll conversation. He’s not an alternative to one item on the list. He’s an argument for the list getting longer.

Now, does Banner’s presence change the odds? At the margin maybe.

What the connection buys is the stuff you can’t scout – makeup, work habits, how he responds to coaching, medical history that never makes a report. In the room, when somebody asks whether the age 33 and age 34 years are going to hold up, Baltimore now has a first-hand voice instead of a folder. That’s worth something real.

What it doesn’t buy is a discount. Banner’s portfolio is player development, coaching and performance; he partners on acquisition. Elias runs acquisition. Familiarity has never once won a bidding war.

And it cuts both ways, which people forget. Banner may know exactly why the Cubs let him walk to free agency instead of extending him. The most valuable thing that relationship produces might be Banner telling Elias not to.

My read: Suzuki is a legitimate fit on the merits and would make the Orioles meaningfully better. Whether Banner knows him is close to irrelevant to whether they sign him. Whether David Rubenstein will go past $200 million is the only question that matters.

The Caution

This is a process hire. It does not add a win in 2027.

The actual list is still sitting there, and it’s still Elias’s to execute. The Orioles need a starting pitcher at the top of the rotation – and as we worked through in the playoff preview, a team that’s 60% to win a given game still takes a best-of-three only about 65% of the time. You’d need something like a best-of-75 to be 80% sure the better club advances. An ace is the closest thing to cheating those odds, because he pitches twice in a short series. Baltimore’s four most-used starters finished between 3.56 and 4.12. That’s innings, not an edge.

They also need to decide what to do about Trevor Rogers before the December 1st lockout. They need a catcher who can take 50 to 70 starts without being an automatic out. They need outfield defense. They need to settle on Gunnar Henderson, who has two years of control left.

None of that gets easier because a General Manager was hired in October. Front Office moves are the most applaudable thing an organization can do in an offseason, because nobody can tell you for two or three years whether they worked.

But this one is aimed at the right target. The Orioles did not get worse because they ran out of talent. They got worse because the talent stopped getting better, and they have just spent six weeks restructuring the department responsible for that.

One last note worth recording. With Houston’s firing of Dana Brown, Jared Banner is the only Black General Manager in Major League Baseball. He’s talked publicly about wanting young African Americans to follow the path he took – keep learning, keep meeting people, keep growing the network. He’ll have a platform here to do something about it.

Welcome to Baltimore. The work starts immediately, and the hard part isn’t the part he was hired to fix.

The post The Orioles Hired A General Manager. Look At What He’s Being Asked To Fix. appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The betting market’s two favorites are both in the West.

FanDuel has Oklahoma City at +240 and San Antonio at +270. The next two teams, Philadelphia and New York, are both at +1000. Strip out the bookmaker’s margin and the Thunder and Spurs together hold nearly half of the title equity in the league. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index puts the Thunder alone at about 28%.

That is the season in one sentence. The East got the stars. The West kept the two best teams.

Three other facts frame everything below.

The champion is the Knicks. New York won its first title in 53 years, rolled through the playoffs on a 13-game winning streak and brought back 10 of its top 12 rotation players. No team has repeated since the 2017-18 Warriors. And the Karl-Anthony Towns extension talks are frozen until later in the season, by the team’s own announcement.

The second apron is building rosters. Boston traded a Finals MVP for Paul George and picks. Oklahoma City moved Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe to get out of the tax. The Knicks let Mitchell Robinson walk to Boston rather than cross the line. Adam Silver’s response, in Las Vegas, was that this was by design.

Tanking now gets punished. Under the new lottery rules, the three worst records get just a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick. The next seven get 8.1% each. The bottom of the standings is no longer a destination. It is a zone to escape.

So the season starts with a clear top and a crowded middle. The Thunder and Spurs met in a seven-game Western Conference Finals in May, and both return their cores. Behind them, ten Eastern teams think they belong in the playoffs. Two of them won’t make it out of the play-in.

The season tips tomorrow Oct. 20th, when the Knicks raise their banner against LeBron’s 76ers at Madison Square Garden. Spurs-Thunder closes the night. Here’s ours.

Title odds are FanDuel’s NBA Finals prices at the time of writing unless another source is named. Projections cite ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). The consensus check also includes The Ringer’s Sept. 21st power rankings and CBS Sports’ offense and defense projections.

Top 16 Power Rankings Entering 2026-27

Power ranking is a neutral-floor question. Title percentage is a different one: it folds in health, age, depth and the path through each conference. That is why the Pistons can sit sixth here with a smaller title share than their regular-season ceiling suggests.

These sum to roughly 96%. The rest belongs to the field.

Who’s Not Ready

Injuries have already reshaped the opening weeks. These are the ones on teams with real stakes this season, per ESPN’s reporting through Oct. 13.

Back and cleared: Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles), Jayson Tatum (Achilles), Damian Lillard (Achilles), Kyrie Irving (ACL), Fred VanVleet (ACL), Jalen Williams and Joel Embiid, who was a full participant on the first day of camp.

Consensus Check (Top Ten)

ESPN’s rankings were published Oct. 19th; the Ringer’s and Yahoo’s were both published Sept. 21st. The CBS offense and defense ranks are Sam Quinn’s projections for where each team finishes in efficiency.

Our biggest gaps from NBC’s power rankings: Denver four spots higher, Toronto four spots higher, and the Knicks two spots lower than NBC’s No. 1. The Ringer is the outlier on three teams. It has Boston fourth, Philadelphia 10th and Cleveland 12th. Cleveland is the only team in our top ten that CBS projects outside the top ten on both ends. Yahoo’s Kevin O’Connor matches our top four exactly, in the same order. His big swings are elsewhere: Minnesota fifth, the Lakers sixth and Miami seventh, with Houston 12th and Detroit 13th. NBA.com’s annual general manager survey, released Oct. 15th, picked the Spurs to win the title with 50% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Thunder at 43%, and picked the Knicks to win the East. That is our top three with the top two flipped. Their East order (Knicks, 76ers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Pistons, Raptors) is nearly ours. In the West they have Minnesota third, which we don’t. ESPN’s Oct. 19th power rankings match our top four exactly. Their big departures from us are Minnesota fifth, Cleveland ninth and Houston 10th.

The market mostly agrees at the top. FanDuel’s four shortest prices belong to our top four. The split comes at five. FanDuel prices Boston fifth at +1400, ahead of Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Denver. We have the Celtics ninth. That’s a playoff judgment; in the regular season we expect them near the top of the East. FanDuel also has Toronto tied with Cleveland at +2500, a better price than Detroit’s.

The second model. ESPN’s preseason BPI projections back us on the top two. It gives the Thunder about a 28% title chance and the Sixers about 8%, and it gives six Western teams at least an 85% chance to make the playoffs. Its summer team ratings had Boston fourth, which lines up with our view of Boston as a regular-season force. BPI also says Boston has a 75% chance to finish with at least as good a record as Philadelphia, but the Sixers would be 52% favorites in a series with a healthy Embiid. The Warriors are 20th in BPI today and would be 12th at full strength.

Five Teams We Like Better Than The Projections

1. Denver Nuggets. NBC has the Nuggets 12th and FanDuel has them tied for seventh at +2700. They had the best offense in the league last season, and they were No. 1 despite missing Nikola Jokic for a month. Denver has never finished worse than seventh in offense since Jokic became a full-time starter. Jamal Murray made his first All-Star and All-NBA teams. Aaron Gordon has shot 41% from three over two years. The risk is real: the Nuggets are the only team above the second apron, lost Peyton Watson because of it, and are leaning on DeMar DeRozan, Spencer Jones and Cam Whitmore off the bench. CBS projects the 24th-ranked defense, which Sam Quinn says may be the worst of the Jokic era. Zach Lowe went under 48.5 on exactly those grounds: a bench he dislikes, Gordon’s health, and the chance Murray’s best season is behind him. But the best player in the world on most nights is still in Denver. Denver is 125-51 in the regular season when Jokic, Murray and Gordon all play.

2. Atlanta Hawks. NBC has the Hawks 15th and BPI had them 17th this summer. After trading Trae Young in January they went 29-15, the seventh-best record in the league in that span. Then they took two games from the Knicks, the only team that did. Jalen Johnson averaged 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists. Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Devin Carter arrived in salary dumps, and Zach Kram gave the offseason an A-minus. CBS projects the ninth-best defense. Simmons and Lowe both went under, worried about finding minutes for Dort, Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker at once. ESPN’s answer: keep last season’s starting five, which posted a +20.3 net rating, and bring Dort off the bench. The risk is the half-court offense, which ranked 22nd against top-10 defenses.

3. Utah Jazz. FanDuel has the Jazz at +12500, tied for 19th. CBS projects them as the No. 10 offense. Utah tanked for three years and is now trying: Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George (23.6 points last season) and No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson, NBC’s Rookie of the Year pick. The Jazz also turned Walker Kessler into two unprotected firsts and two swaps. The risk is center, where Jusuf Nurkic will miss the start with a toe injury. CBS projects the 23rd-ranked defense and warns Utah may be the worst rebounding team in the league until he returns. Simmons took the under for the same reason, noting Jaren Jackson Jr. averages 5.6 rebounds for his career. Lowe and House went over on Will Hardy’s coaching.

4. Memphis Grizzlies. FanDuel has them at +70000 and NBC at 25th. CBS has them 17th on offense, ahead of Atlanta, Phoenix and Golden State. No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer looked like the most NBA-ready player in his class. Ty Jerome scored 19.7 points a game over 15 games last season, and Zach Edey is a dominant interior player when he plays. That is the risk: Edey played 11 games last season and has had two ankle surgeries. Memphis allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and 121.2 without him. The bandwagon is filling: the win total moved from 28.5 to 30.5, and all three Simmons hosts went over. Lowe’s worry is perimeter shot creation beyond Ty Jerome’s floaters.

5. Toronto Raptors. NBC has them 14th and BPI had them 14th this summer. Toronto replaced Brandon Ingram, who disappeared in the 2026 playoffs, with a two-time Finals MVP. Toronto was 10 points per 100 possessions worse with Ingram on the floor last season. Scottie Barnes is coming off a first-round series against Cleveland that only LeBron James, Nikola Jokic and Cade Cunningham have matched across the board in the last decade. Kram graded the offseason an A, CBS projects the third-best defense in the league, and the Ringer has Toronto sixth. ESPN’s Kram goes further and picks the Raptors to reach the Finals. The risk is the same one it has been for ten years: Leonard has reached 60 games three times in that span, and he hasn’t matched the 84 combined regular-season and playoff games he played in Toronto’s title season. Also worth knowing: last season’s Raptors were 2-22 against the top six teams in the West and the top three in the East.

Also considered: Charlotte (CBS’s No. 15 offense even without LaMelo Ball), Portland (Damian Lillard and Ja Morant join a 42-win team) and Dallas (Kyrie Irving’s return and Cooper Flagg’s second year).

Five Teams We Like Less Than The Projections

1. Minnesota Timberwolves. Yahoo ranks the Wolves fifth, and FanDuel has them tied for seventh at +2700. We have them 12th and took the under on 46.5. Minnesota traded its two most physical frontcourt rotation players, Julius Randle and Naz Reid, for LaMelo Ball. Ball has played 2,100 minutes in a season once in six years and has never played in a playoff game. CBS projects the defense sliding from eighth to 12th, a deliberate trade of defense for offense, and Donte DiVincenzo is still recovering from a torn Achilles. Joe House took the under for the same reasons. The case against us is real: Simmons and Lowe both went over, Lowe sees Jaden McDaniels leveling up, and Anthony Edwards has never had a point guard like this next to him. One more number: Edwards has played 6,008 more regular-season minutes than Ball, roughly 200 starter’s games. GMs are higher still: they picked Minnesota third in the West and named it the second-hardest team to predict.

2. Los Angeles Lakers. NBC has the Lakers eighth and CBS projects the No. 3 offense. The Lakers gave up two unprotected firsts and two pick swaps for Walker Kessler, who played five games last season. Kram notes they now have one of the weakest forward groups in the league and almost no draft assets left. Doncic will put up MVP numbers. The question is whether 53 wins without LeBron James is still 53 wins. CBS projects only the 15th-ranked defense and can’t find a way the Lakers get stops when Kessler sits. Yahoo is the counterpoint, ranking the Lakers sixth and calling this a possible first MVP season for Doncic. All three Simmons hosts went over 45.5, though Simmons thinks Rob Pelinka is in the exit row after the sale. Botkin adds that the Lakers were already bottom 10 in made threes before losing Smart, Kennard and Hachimura.

3. Phoenix Suns. BPI ranked the Suns eighth this summer. NBC has them 19th and FanDuel has them at +15000. Phoenix won 45 games by out-working people, then ran into the Thunder in the first round. Jalen Green played 32 games on a career-low true shooting percentage. Miles Bridges cost an unprotected 2033 first, and his efficiency dropped about nine points without LaMelo Ball last season. Starting center Mark Williams will miss extended time with a shoulder injury, and CBS projects the defense falling from ninth to 17th. Every projected starter shot below league average from three last season. Devin Booker is also trending the wrong way. Yahoo notes his shooting at the rim fell from 63% over seven seasons to 56% last season.

4. Miami Heat. BPI ranked the Heat 10th and FanDuel has them at +3000. Giannis Antetokounmpo played a career-low 36 games last season with recurring calf strains, and he cost four players and three first-round picks. Dean Oliver’s projection for this Heat team is 46 wins. It was also 46 for last year’s Bucks, who surrounded Giannis with marginal players and won 32. CBS is the counterpoint: it projects Miami’s defense sixth. The Ringer has the Heat 17th. Lowe and Simmons both locked the over, betting on one big Giannis season. The spacing worry is real, though: Adebayo, Giannis and Davion Mitchell are all players defenses will dare to shoot.

5. Indiana Pacers. NBC has the Pacers ninth. Tyrese Haliburton has the kind of game that should survive an Achilles tear, and Indiana was 45 healthy minutes from a title in 2025. But he is 16 months removed from the injury, his new center doesn’t shoot threes, and the bench has thinned since that Finals run. We expect a slow start and a strong finish, which is a 13th-place preseason ranking. The Ringer has the Pacers in the same spot and says no team has a wider range of outcomes. The other side is loud: Bill Simmons and Joe House both locked the over on 44.5 wins, and Simmons calls Indiana the sleeper in either conference. ESPN’s BPI sides with us, projecting 42 wins and 10th in the East. Even GM Chad Buchanan expects a ramp-up: Haliburton and Zubac have struggled with pick-and-roll timing, and Haliburton tweaked his right ankle in his first game back, though his Achilles was unaffected. Worth remembering, too: the Pacers are the last team to beat the Knicks in a playoff series, and GMs picked Indiana as the league’s most improved team with 43% of the vote.

Fades the market has already made, so we won’t take credit: Golden State (+8000, BPI 20th), the Clippers (+100000) and Milwaukee (+100000).

The Win Totals

FanDuel’s regular-season win totals, our pick on each, and the picks from the Bill Simmons Podcast’s annual over-under episodes with Zach Lowe and Joe House. One variable nobody knows how to price: under the new lottery rules, the worst teams want to climb into the 4-10 range, so fewer teams should give up in March.

BPI projections are from ESPN’s preseason power rankings, published Oct. 19th. BPI and the market rarely disagree by more than two wins. The big exception is Golden State: BPI projects 43.6 wins against a 36.5 line, a bet that Curry stays healthy and Butler returns on time. We still have the under.

The market is lower on the top of the East than the power rankings are. Detroit’s number fell 12.5 wins from its actual total, and none of the East’s top six is priced above 51.5. Our biggest splits from the podcast panel are on Indiana and Miami, where all three hosts went over and we went under. The panel’s only unanimous lock was Houston over 48.5. Simmons thinks the East runs through whoever wins a Knicks-Pacers series.

Conference Deep Dives

The Eastern Conference

Overview. The defending champion plays here, and so do LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaylen Brown and Kawhi Leonard, all in new places. CBS counts ten teams that feel like playoff teams: the Knicks, 76ers, Celtics, Raptors, Cavaliers, Pistons, Heat, Pacers, Hawks and Hornets. Orlando, which made the playoffs last season, isn’t even on that list. Two of the ten will lose in the play-in.

The East also had last year’s best regular season that didn’t mean much. Detroit won 60 games and the No. 1 seed, then lost in the second round. The Knicks won 53 and the title. Philadelphia won its play-in game, then knocked out the No. 2 seed Celtics.

The market. FanDuel’s East order is the Sixers and Knicks at +1000, then Boston (+1400), Toronto and Cleveland (+2500) and Detroit (+2700). Our conference odds below are our own. We have the Knicks ahead of Philadelphia because they have already done it and the Sixers haven’t played a game together.

1. New York Knicks — East title odds: 25%

• Strength: Continuity and closing. Nine of the top 10 in the playoff rotation return. Jalen Brunson, the 2026 Finals MVP, has led the last three postseasons in clutch scoring, and Karl-Anthony Towns as a passing hub produced one of the best postseason offenses in league history.
• Weakness: Backup center. Mitchell Robinson left for Boston and Andre Drummond replaced him. Zach Kram thinks that downgrade could cost a playoff game or two, and CBS suggests the final backup center may not be on the roster yet. Yahoo argues the other side: Drummond is a better passer, shooter and rebounder, and less injury-prone.
• The question: Towns is eligible for a four-year extension worth more than $270 million. The Knicks’ reported offer is closer to four years and $200 million, and the team won’t negotiate until later in the season. He said Oct. 5 it doesn’t look good. Does that hang over the locker room? Towns said this week he was very disappointed by the pause. Rival teams see two paths. Towns could pick up his $61 million player option for 2027-28 and the Knicks could stay under the $236 million second apron, likely at the cost of Josh Hart. Or he could walk to a team like Golden State, the Clippers or Atlanta, leaving New York about $40 million to reset around Brunson. ESPN still expects a deal eventually.
• Watch: Health. All five starters played at least 66 games last season and filled 98% of the playoff starts. That is hard to repeat.
• Circle: vs. Philadelphia, Oct. 20, on banner night. At Boston and vs. Orlando the same week.

2. Philadelphia 76ers — 22%

• Strength: Talent. Tyrese Maxey (28.3 points) made All-NBA, VJ Edgecombe started 75 games as a rookie, and Joel Embiid averaged 26.9 points when he played. Then they added a Finals MVP and LeBron James on a two-year, $8 million deal. CBS’s Brad Botkin notes James assisted on 15.2% of his passes last season, a higher rate than Jokic, and that Maxey, Brown and James ranked first, second and third in transition baskets. The catch: the five starters’ combined usage last season was 143.1%.
• Weakness: Fit and size. Brown and Embiid are both high-usage midrange scorers. The defense is a question too: by GeniusIQ, Philadelphia allowed the easiest shots of any team that was trying to win last season. The roster lacks shooting, and with Ariel Hukporti out for the year, the frontcourt behind Embiid is Dean Wade, Adem Bona, Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker.
• The question: Embiid has never been past the second round. The franchise hasn’t reached a conference final since 2001, and Nick Nurse is in the last year of his contract. How patient will anyone be? Simmons’ worry is that no one in the core is at the right point of his career to sacrifice. Lowe calls the fully healthy version the biggest threat to the Knicks. Expect a slow start. James took one shot in 18 minutes over the first three exhibitions, and his first seasons in Miami, Cleveland and Los Angeles opened 9-8, 5-7 and 4-6.
• Circle: at New York, Oct. 20. Cleveland, Milwaukee and Detroit follow in week one.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers — 13%

• Strength: The core four plus Peyton Watson, who shot 41% from three in a career year and is one of the best wing defenders in the league. Mitchell made All-NBA second team. Harden, Mitchell, Mobley and Allen played only 90 regular-season minutes together last season and still reached the conference finals.
• Weakness: Guard depth. Max Strus, Dean Wade, Dennis Schroder, Keon Ellis and Larry Nance Jr. are gone. Behind Mitchell and Harden are rookie Meleek Thomas, Tyrese Proctor and Craig Porter Jr. The starters alone make more than $179 million, so cheap help like Mario Hezonja, who averaged 17.5 points for Real Madrid, has to work. Cleveland’s bench ranked 25th in scoring last season.
• The question: Harden averaged 19 points on 29% three-point shooting in the playoffs. After four straight exits short of the Finals, is a 37-year-old point guard the answer? Lowe locked the over anyway. Simmons points out that if this group falls short, Evan Mobley is the only big trade chip left. CBS ranked Cleveland just 13th in July, arguing it would lose a rematch with a Leonard-led Toronto.
• Circle: at Philadelphia and vs. Brooklyn in the first week.

4. Detroit Pistons — 10%

• Strength: Defense and the paint. Detroit led the league in paint points and was third in offensive rebounding. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden shot a combined 5 of 28 against Ausar Thompson in the second round. Detroit was 34-16 against winning teams last season, third-best behind Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
• Weakness: A second creator. The front office asked about Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard this summer and landed neither. Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart are gone. Simmons floats Tyler Herro or Kyrie Irving as the eventual trade fix.
• The question: Jalen Duren signed hours before the qualifying-offer deadline, and Trajan Langdon said he hadn’t spoken with him all summer. Does the All-NBA center bounce back from a rough playoff run? He called himself a Piston for life when he signed.
• Watch: Ausar Thompson’s jumper. He went 3 of 3 from midrange in his first preseason game and 0 of 5 in his next. He and Duren made six threes combined last season.
• Circle: vs. Boston, at Miami, at Philadelphia.

5. Boston Celtics — 9%

• Strength: The system. Joe Mazzulla’s four regular-season offenses have ranked second, first, second and second. Mitchell Robinson adds the best offensive rebounder in the league, and Payton Pritchard signed a two-year, $44.2 million extension on Oct. 13. GMs voted Robinson the second-most underrated acquisition of the summer.
• Weakness: Creation without Brown, whose 36.2 usage rate was second in the NBA last season, and free throws. Boston ranked last in attempts even with Brown, who was fifth in the league. Still, Mazzulla’s Celtics have finished top five in both offense and defense in all four of his seasons.
• The question: Can Jayson Tatum get back to All-NBA first team after nearly 300 days out with a torn Achilles? Our view: Boston won 56 last season with Tatum playing 16 games. This year it plays without Brown instead, and in the regular season that’s close to a wash. Paul George is a 40-to-50-game contributor, Robinson is the best addition, and the real doubt is whether this roster wins more than one playoff round. Botkin framed it the same way in July: Tatum is effectively a new addition, Robinson upgrades on Nikola Vucevic, and George upgrades on Anfernee Simons.
• Circle: at Detroit, then the Knicks.

6. Toronto Raptors — 8%

• Strength: Wings and transition. Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles make one of the best defensive groups in the East, and Toronto scored more fast-break points than any team last season.
• Weakness: Three-point shooting, and the half-court against good teams. Toronto ranked 23rd in isolation scoring and 29th in pick-and-roll efficiency last season, which is exactly what Leonard fixes.
• The question: Leonard signed a two-year, $115 million extension. Can he give Toronto its first playoff series win since 2020?
• Circle: vs. Chicago, at Washington, at Minnesota.

On Indiana and Miami outside the top six. NBC has the Pacers ninth and the Heat 13th, and both could end up in the top four. Haliburton’s return makes Indiana the team most likely to improve as the season goes. Miami has the higher ceiling and the shakier floor: when Giannis plays, the Heat have the best defensive frontcourt in the East. He has finished a full regular season and postseason once since 2022.

The other 13% belongs to Indiana, Miami, Atlanta and Orlando.

The Western Conference

Overview. Two teams and a wide gap. Oklahoma City and San Antonio won 126 games between them last season and met in a Game 7. Both are younger than nearly everyone chasing them. ESPN’s BPI gives six Western teams at least an 85% chance to make the playoffs, which says the top half is set and the fight is for seeding.

The chase is less settled. The Lakers turned over almost the entire roster. Houston kept its group and is betting on health. Denver kept its starters and lost its depth. Minnesota traded two rotation bigs for LaMelo Ball. Behind them, Portland, Phoenix, Utah, Dallas and Golden State are all realistic play-in teams.

The market. FanDuel has the Thunder (+240) and Spurs (+270) far ahead of everyone. The next Western team is Denver, Minnesota and Houston, all at +2700. The Lakers are +4000.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — West title odds: 35%

• Strength: Defense and depth. The Thunder have ranked first in defense two straight years. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points, and the bench has Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain and Alex Caruso, the most versatile defender in the league.
• Weakness: Size beyond Isaiah Hartenstein. OKC only rebounds on offense when he plays, and he has missed 37% of games over the last two seasons. Rookie Aday Mara may be the fix: he went 10 of 10 in one exhibition. Three rotation players, Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, were traded to cut the tax bill.
• The question: The Spurs. Chet Holmgren was second for Defensive Player of the Year and nearly disappeared against Victor Wembanyama in the conference finals. Can he hold up in a rematch? Lowe notes OKC was without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell for that series, and the Spurs won eight of 12 meetings last season.
• Watch: Cason Wallace, Dort’s likely replacement as a starter, is extension-eligible through October.
• Circle: at San Antonio, Oct. 20. Then Denver and the Clippers.

2. San Antonio Spurs — 32%

• Strength: Wembanyama. He was the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year and the youngest player to make All-NBA first team and the Finals in the same season. The guards around him, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, are 28, 21 and 20. San Antonio led for more than 72% of the minutes in the Finals it lost.
• Weakness: The bench after Harper. He was the only reserve to average eight points in the playoffs. Tobias Harris, 34, is the fix. GMs voted him the offseason’s most underrated acquisition and picked Harper as the player most likely to break through. Shooting is the other question: Wembanyama made 34.2% of his threes in the playoffs, and Fox, Castle and Harper aren’t knockdown shooters.
• The question: Does Harper start? Fox, Castle and Harper shared the court for only 25 minutes last regular season, and Fox sat out the first three exhibitions, so the evidence is thin. ESPN argues for starting Harper and moving Devin Vassell to the bench. Three-guard lineups were -26.9 per 100 possessions in 18 games last season. Bill Simmons wonders whether Harper becomes a 1999 Kobe situation, too good to keep off the floor late in games. Zach Lowe’s answer to the Finals depth problem is Harris, a better version of the role Keldon Johnson couldn’t hold.
• Circle: vs. Oklahoma City, Oct. 20. Houston and a trip to Dallas follow.

3. Houston Rockets — 9%

• Strength: Offensive rebounding. Houston grabbed 36.4% of its misses last season, more than three points clear of second-place Portland. Steven Adams, back from ankle surgery, posted a +11.8 net rating.
• Weakness: Half-court offense and shooting. Amen Thompson made 21.6% of his threes, and the offense fell apart in the playoffs. Houston blew double-digit leads in 18 of its 32 regular-season losses.
• The question: Kevin Durant is 38. Can he and Alperen Sengun finally function as a partnership, with Fred VanVleet back to organize it? All three Simmons podcast hosts locked the over. Lowe still warns that if the offense keeps ending in late-clock Sengun drives, Ime Udoka will hear about it. Houston also holds Brooklyn swap rights and an unprotected Phoenix pick if it wants to deal.
• Circle: vs. Dallas, at San Antonio, at Atlanta.

4. Denver Nuggets — 9%

• Strength: Jokic and Murray, still the best two-man game in the league, with Gordon, Christian Braun and Cam Johnson around them.
• Weakness: The bench, and the cap. Denver’s defense forced the fewest turnovers in the league, and the second apron leaves no room to fix the depth.
• The question: Jokic didn’t extend this summer. He said at media day he’ll sign next year. Is that enough to settle it?
• Circle: at Oklahoma City, then New Orleans.

5. Los Angeles Lakers — 5%

• Strength: Doncic and Reaves. Doncic came to camp at 230 pounds, down from 244, and JJ Redick says he ran sprints all summer. Reaves averaged 23.3 points and signed for four years and $180 million.
• Weakness: Forwards and backup center. Kram calls the forward group one of the weakest in the league.
• The question: Walker Kessler played five games last season and cost two unprotected firsts and two swaps. Is he the center Doncic has been waiting for?
• Circle: vs. Golden State, vs. the Clippers, at Utah.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves — 5%

• Strength: Pull-up shooting. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball took more pull-up threes per game combined than 20 entire teams did last season.
• Weakness: Size. Julius Randle and Naz Reid went out in the Ball deal, and Rudy Gobert is in his mid-30s.
• The question: Ball has never played in a playoff game. Can he stay healthy and make the decisions a contender needs? Joe House doesn’t think so and took the under. Lowe sees Jaden McDaniels leveling up on offense this preseason.
• Circle: at Miami, at Orlando, vs. Toronto.

On Golden State outside the top six. Stephen Curry signed a two-year extension worth about $116 million, taking less than the max to give the Warriors room next summer. This year is harder. Jimmy Butler III won’t be back until midseason at the earliest, and Kristaps Porzingis is out indefinitely. Steve Kerr told ESPN plainly that the Warriors are not in the championship conversation. BPI agrees: 20th today, 12th at full strength. Lowe adds that Curry, 38, missed half of last season with runner’s knee.

The other 5% belongs to Golden State, Portland, Phoenix, Utah, Dallas and Memphis.

Nos. 17-30

The new lottery changes the bottom of the league. The three worst records get a 5.4% chance at the No. 1 pick, and the next seven get 8.1% each. BPI projects Sacramento as the worst team in the league, and that only earns the Kings the seventh-best odds at No. 1, about 7%. Dallas, projected ten wins better, is at about 8%.

The Wizards: Year One Of Trying

The projection. We have Washington at 33-49, 12th in the East and just outside the play-in. That is a 16-win jump from a 17-65 season. NBC ranks the Wizards 20th, ESPN’s summer BPI had them 22nd, CBS projects the 23rd-best offense, and FanDuel lists them at 125-to-1. Some league insiders told ESPN its Summer Forecast for Washington was too low. ESPN’s preseason BPI disagrees: 32.4 projected wins and a 1.8% chance at the playoffs. Washington also can’t pick in the top five next June under the new lottery rules, after two straight top-two picks. In the GM survey, the Wizards finished second for most improved team and second, far behind San Antonio, for most promising young core.

The Wizards lost 60 or more games in each of the last three seasons. The reward was the 2026 lottery and AJ Dybantsa with the No. 1 pick. Under the new rules, that path is closed. This is the year they have to start winning.

• Strength: Talent at every position for the first time in years. Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Dybantsa and Alex Sarr form the core, with Kyshawn George, Tre Johnson and Will Riley behind them and Khris Middleton and Deandre Ayton for depth.
• Also a strength: Passing. Young led the league with 11.6 assists in 2024-25 and had eight in the first quarter of a preseason game against Detroit. Through three exhibitions he had 23 assists and only 16 shots, a sharp turn for a player who has averaged 18.3 shots a game. His preseason usage rate was 21%; he has never finished a season below 28%. Davis, Dybantsa and Sarr all finish and pass out of the pick-and-roll.
• Weakness: Availability and defense. Young played 15 games last season. Davis has played 71 in the last two seasons combined. Sarr had foot surgery in June and was limited in camp. Young remains one of the weakest defenders in the league.
• The question: Davis and the team agreed to hold off on extension talks. If the start goes badly, does he ask out?
• The rookie: Dybantsa’s strength at BYU was a long, bendy frame that found gaps to the rim and drew fouls. He led the country at 25.5 points per game. CBS already ranks him 90th in the league. He won’t have to carry the team, which may help him most.
• The contract: Young signed for four years and $212 million before the draft. Kram gave the deal a D. The Wizards held the announcement at a Las Vegas hotel with most of the roster in the room.
• The X factor: Kyshawn George, a No. 24 pick, averaged 14.8 points and 4.5 assists and shot 38% from three. Kram thinks he may already be the best all-around wing on the roster.
• Circle: vs. Milwaukee, vs. Toronto and at Chicago in week one.

The home floor. Dean Oliver notes the Wizards are one of three teams with a home-court disadvantage over the last three years, partly because so many D.C. fans root for the team from where they grew up. A normal home edge is worth about five wins. Young’s personal home-court split is among the worst in the league. The mood may help. Capital One Arena’s renovation is about two-thirds done with both the Wizards and Capitals staying downtown, and about 5,000 fans showed up to a draft party for a No. 1 pick everyone already knew was coming. FanDuel’s win total is 34.5. Joe House, the Wizards’ loudest fan in media, took the over. Bill Simmons locked the under.

The bar. Washington has made the playoffs once in the last eight years and hasn’t won a series since 2017. It is also in a conference where ten teams think they are playoff teams. A play-in berth would be a success. Thirty wins and a top-ten pick would be an acceptable first step. Another season in the bottom three would mean the worst odds the new lottery allows, and no Dybantsa waiting at the end of it.

League Unit Rankings

Top 8 Duos

1. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Nuggets — Still the best two-man game in basketball. Murray’s first All-Star season came with the best efficiency of his career.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, Thunder — A two-time MVP and a 25-year-old who made All-NBA, All-Defense and the All-Star team in the 2025 title season. Williams played 38 games last year and says he is healthy.
3. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, Knicks — The best closer in the league and the best shooting big man ever. The playoff version, with Towns as a hub, won a title.
4. Victor Wembanyama and Dylan Harper, Spurs — ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reports the Spurs believe Harper is already their second-best player. Rival front offices agree.
5. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, Lakers — The analytics loved them together last season, and LeBron’s minutes now go to them.
6. Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes, Raptors — Two wings who can guard anyone and a new half-court shotmaker for a team that needed one.
7. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, Timberwolves — The most pull-up threes of any pairing in the league. Ball should take some of the creation load off Edwards.
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, Heat — Possibly the best defensive frontcourt in the league, if Giannis is on the floor.

Just missed: Donovan Mitchell and James Harden (Cavaliers), Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown (76ers), Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren (Pistons), Jayson Tatum and Derrick White (Celtics).

Top 8 Benches

1. Thunder — Ajay Mitchell grew into a real secondary creator, Jared McCain gets a full season, and Alex Caruso still swings big games. NBC says this second unit has been the scariest thing about OKC in the preseason.
2. Spurs — Harper, if he comes off it, plus Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, Tobias Harris and Carter Bryant, a strong rookie defender. Depth was the problem in the Finals. This is the fix.
3. Hawks — Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Devin Carter arrived in salary dumps, and No. 8 pick Kingston Flemings backs up CJ McCollum. Kram calls the bench upgrade dramatic.
4. Celtics — Payton Pritchard won Sixth Man of the Year in 2025 and goes back to that role after a career year as a starter.
5. Rockets — Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason, plus Steven Adams when he plays.
6. Knicks — Jordan Clarkson, Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet all came back on below-market deals. Andre Drummond is the downgrade.
7. Pacers — Kelly Oubre Jr. and Larry Nance Jr. join T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin. Rick Carlisle knows which buttons to push.
8. Raptors — Kyle Anderson, Andre Jackson Jr. and Jamal Shead, who signed a three-year, $24 million extension. Collin Murray-Boyles may start.

Thinnest among contenders: Denver, with DeMar DeRozan, Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones, Cam Whitmore, Julian Strawther and EuroLeague import Alpha Diallo behind an elite starting five.

Top 10 Head Coaches

Rotation management plus scheme, which in a second-apron league is most of the job.

1. Mark Daigneault, Thunder. A title in 2025, the best defense in the league two years running, and the most aggressive minutes management in the sport. He turned three trades out of his rotation into a deeper bench.

2. Erik Spoelstra, Heat. Last season he ran the fastest pace in the league with almost no ball screens. Now he has to build a different offense around Giannis.

3. Joe Mazzulla, Celtics. The reigning Coach of the Year. His regular-season offenses have ranked first or second all four years, and Dean Oliver notes his teams haven’t lost more than three straight in three years.

4. Mike Brown, Knicks. Won a title in his first year by turning Towns into a passing hub in the playoffs.

5. Rick Carlisle, Pacers. Took Indiana to the 2025 Finals with a rotation built on depth. His rotation decisions in Haliburton’s first months back will shape the season.

6. Steve Kerr, Warriors. Signed a new contract and has said openly the Warriors aren’t title contenders. Now he is coaching development, which he says excites him.

7. Mitch Johnson, Spurs. Took a 62-win team to the Finals and added Billy Donovan as his lead assistant.

8. Ime Udoka, Rockets. Two straight 50-win seasons built on defense and offensive rebounding. The playoff offense is on him now.

9. Kenny Atkinson, Cavaliers. Two seasons, two top-four seeds and a conference finals. His Game 7 adjustment against Detroit, steering away from Ausar Thompson, was the move of that series.

10. Tyronn Lue, Clippers. CBS rates him among the best play designers in the league. He will need all of it this year.

Just missed: J.B. Bickerstaff (60 wins in Detroit), Will Hardy (Utah), JJ Redick (Lakers) and Nick Nurse, who coaches the most talented team of his Philadelphia tenure in the last year of his contract. New this season: Micah Nori (Portland), Sean Sweeney (Orlando), Jamahl Mosley (New Orleans), Taylor Jenkins (Milwaukee), Tiago Splitter (Chicago) and Dusty May (Dallas). In the GM survey, Spoelstra edged Daigneault for best coach, 43% to 37%, and Carlisle was picked for both best offense and best in-game adjustments.

The Individual Awards

Top 5 MVP Candidates

1. Victor Wembanyama, C, Spurs. CBS ranks him the best player in the league, and ESPN’s Summer Forecast gives him the best MVP chance. He is the reigning unanimous Defensive Player of the Year and the best player on a team built to win 60 again. The only gap is self-created offense in big moments, and the Finals loss is his motivation. NBA general managers agree: 77% picked him for MVP, ahead of Jokic (10%) and Edwards (7%), and 93% would start a franchise with him.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Thunder. The two-time defending MVP averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 1.4 steals. A third straight would make him the first since Larry Bird in 1984-86. Voter fatigue is the real opponent. ESPN has him fourth.

3. Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets. He hasn’t finished outside the top two since 2020 and led the league in assists and rebounds last season. If Denver’s depth holds, he is the default.

4. Luka Doncic, G, Lakers. He led the league with 33.5 points and is +650 at DraftKings. He’s lighter, rested after skipping national team play, and the offense is entirely his now. The hurdles are 65 games and a top-three seed.

5. Cade Cunningham, G, Pistons. Fifth in last year’s voting after averaging 23.9 points and 9.9 assists for the East’s No. 1 seed. J.B. Bickerstaff has promised a better version.

Longshots: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200 at DraftKings; he finished top four every year from 2019 through 2025), Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson and Jaylen Brown, who finished sixth last year and will have fewer shots in Philadelphia.

Top 8 Rookies

1. Darryn Peterson, Jazz — The No. 2 pick and NBC’s Rookie of the Year pick. Utah wants him to focus on scoring while Keyonte George runs the offense.
2. AJ Dybantsa, Wizards — The No. 1 pick, already 90th in CBS’s top 100. He doesn’t have to be the first option, which may help his numbers more than hurt them.
3. Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies — No. 3, the reigning Naismith Player of the Year, and the most NBA-ready player in the class. He and Zach Edey could be the best rebounding frontcourt in the league.
4. Caleb Wilson, Bulls — No. 4 and +350 at DraftKings. He added a catch-and-shoot three in summer league and drew Kevin Garnett comparisons.
5. Darius Acuff Jr., Kings — No. 7 out of Arkansas, where he averaged 23.5 points and was unanimous SEC Player of the Year. He’ll have the ball on a team with nothing to lose.
6. Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors — No. 11 from national champion Michigan. Steve Kerr says he will play a ton.
7. Kingston Flemings, Hawks — No. 8, backing up CJ McCollum on a team that expects to make the playoffs.
8. Mikel Brown Jr., Nets — No. 6, averaged 16.7 points in summer league and will start next to Egor Demin.

Next: Keaton Wagler (Clippers, No. 5, a rough summer league), Morez Johnson Jr. (Mavericks, No. 9), Brayden Burries (Bucks, No. 10), Koa Peat (Suns), Aday Mara (Thunder) and Cameron Carr (Lakers). GMs see the award differently: Boozer got 50% of their Rookie of the Year vote, ahead of Wilson (20%), Dybantsa (17%) and Peterson (13%). For best player in five years, Dybantsa and Wilson tied at 33%, and Brayden Burries was voted the biggest draft-night steal.

Top 8 New Faces

The summer moved more stars than any in recent memory.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Heat (from Milwaukee) — Cost Miami Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis and three first-round picks. He played 36 games last season. GMs called him the acquisition who will make the biggest impact, and voted Philadelphia’s summer the best overall.
2. LeBron James, 76ers (from the Lakers) — Signed for two years and $8 million after making nearly $53 million last season. He averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists at 41.
3. Jaylen Brown, 76ers (from Boston) — Averaged 28.7 points and finished sixth in MVP voting. The return was Paul George, two firsts and two seconds.
4. Kawhi Leonard, Raptors (from the Clippers) — Averaged 27.9 points in 65 games, the most points of his career. Toronto sent Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two unprotected firsts, a swap and two seconds.
5. LaMelo Ball, Timberwolves (from Charlotte) — The catalyst for the league’s best offense from December on. Minnesota sent out Julius Randle, Naz Reid and a first.
6. Paul George, Celtics (from Philadelphia) — The better spot-up shooter and team defender than Brown at this stage. He has said Tatum is the guy.
7. Peyton Watson, Cavaliers (from Denver) — Signed for four years and $88 million after averaging career highs and shooting 41% from three.
8. Walker Kessler, Lakers (from Utah) — The 7-foot-2 rim protector the Doncic offense was missing, at a price Utah called a win.

Next: Ja Morant (Portland), Julius Randle (Brooklyn), Damian Lillard (back in Portland), Deandre Ayton (Washington), John Collins (Detroit), Klay Thompson (Miami).

Quick Hits

• Most continuity among contenders: The Spurs, with no subtractions at all, and the Knicks, with 10 of their top 12 back. Least: The Lakers, the first team in NBA history with none of its top five playoff-minute players returning.
• Opening night, tomorrow Oct. 20th: The Knicks raise their first banner since 1973 against LeBron’s 76ers at Madison Square Garden, and the Spurs host the Thunder in a conference finals rematch. LeBron said at media day he once pictured finishing his career at the Garden.
• New coaches: Micah Nori (Portland, on a year-to-year deal), Sean Sweeney (Orlando), Jamahl Mosley (New Orleans), Taylor Jenkins (Milwaukee), Tiago Splitter (Chicago) and Dusty May (Dallas), who won the NCAA title at Michigan in April.
• Biggest deals: Donovan Mitchell (four years, $273 million), Victor Wembanyama (five years, $252 million), Trae Young (four years, $212 million), Amen Thompson (five years, $208 million), Jalen Duren (five years, $200 million). Best value: LeBron James, two years and $8 million.
• The penalty: The league docked the Clippers five first-round picks and suspended Steve Ballmer for a year over the Leonard endorsement deal. Leonard was fined $700,000.
• Hottest seats: Nick Nurse (Philadelphia, last year of his deal), Brad Stevens (Boston, for the Brown trade), Rob Pelinka (Lakers, for the Kessler price) and Kevin Pritchard (Indiana, who gave up what became the No. 5 pick for Ivica Zubac).
• Droughts on the line: Philadelphia hasn’t reached a conference final since 2001 or won a title since 1983. Toronto hasn’t won a series since 2020. Orlando hasn’t since 2010. Chicago hasn’t since 2015. Charlotte hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016. No team has repeated since the 2017-18 Warriors.
• Coming soon: The NBA is reviewing three finalist groups for a Las Vegas expansion team, at a reported price of $12 billion to $13 billion, with a decision possibly weeks away. Seattle is no longer a lock, per ESPN; Adam Silver has floated Mexico City while he pushes the Seattle bids higher. Each existing team expects a windfall of roughly $500 million to $600 million.
• Our conference finals: Knicks over 76ers in the East. Thunder over Spurs in the West. Our champion: Oklahoma City, over New York.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering The Season

1. The stars went East. LeBron, Giannis, Brown and Kawhi all changed conferences or came back to the East. The Western favorites didn’t need any of them. The first real test is how fast the new pairings fit. Philadelphia’s four high-usage stars have never played a game together, and Miami’s offense has to be rebuilt around a player who missed half of last season.

2. Can anyone repeat? Eight straight seasons without one. The Knicks have the continuity and the closer. They also have Towns’ contract on hold and a backup center downgrade. Golliver’s team source warned about a hangover and three-point regression after the Knicks led the 2026 postseason in shooting. The case for history is just as strong: New York’s +14.9 playoff point differential was the best ever for a champion, and six of the seven previous leaders in that stat repeated.

3. The second apron is the general manager now. Brown to Philadelphia. Dort, Wiggins and Joe out of Oklahoma City. Robinson to Boston. Watson out of Denver. Adam Silver said moves like the Brown trade were certainly not an unintended consequence. Expect more of them at the deadline.

4. Losing doesn’t pay. The new lottery gives the three worst teams the worst odds of any lottery team at the No. 1 pick. BPI’s projected worst team, Sacramento, has only the seventh-best odds at No. 1. The rules also bar any team from picking in the top five three drafts running, which already caps Washington, Chicago, Indiana, Memphis and Utah. And the Thunder could add a lottery pick anyway, via the Clippers. The odds at the top are flat enough that the race to the bottom is now a race to the middle of the bottom.

5. LeBron’s last act, probably. He is 41, on a two-year deal, in a new city, chasing a fifth title with a team that hasn’t won one in 43 years. He said he didn’t leave home to watch the Sixers keep being the Sixers. If it works, it is the best story of the season. If it doesn’t, it is the hardest ending of his career.

Two Conferences

We started with where the stars went, so we’ll end there.

The four biggest moves of the summer all landed in the East. The East is deeper for it. Ten teams think they are playoff teams, and several of them are right.

But the two favorites didn’t trade for anyone. San Antonio added Tobias Harris and a lead assistant. Oklahoma City traded three rotation players to save money. The Knicks, the best bet in the East, lost a backup center.

That is the pattern at the top. In a league where the second apron makes every roster a short lease, the teams that renewed are the favorites. Every contender that went shopping is still a theory, not a team. Philadelphia’s four stars have never shared a court. Miami’s best player played 36 games last season. Boston traded its second-best player for a 36-year-old.

The East got the names this summer. The West kept the teams. In June, we think, the teams win.

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The Browns, Ravens and Steelers are all 4-2. Pittsburgh won 26-19 in overtime in Tampa, and Cleveland holds the head-to-head over Baltimore. Cincinnati, 3-2 and coming off its bye, is in Baltimore next Sunday.

The Ravens were 3-point favorites at DraftKings, with a total of 39.5, and ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gave them a 55.4% chance to win. The line had been 3.5 when we previewed the game.

Most NFL games are close, most Division games are a fight.

Winning on the road is difficult.  Winning on the road with your backup QB multiple weeks in-a-row is an even tougher ask.

This is a game where if Lamar Jackson is healthy, the Ravens likely win going-away.

Instead the Browns were just good enough to beat the Tyler Huntley led Ravens, and Baltimore loses they expected to win.

Not only do the Ravens lose the head-to-head division match-up, the Ravens lose a game which could have playoff seeding implications later.

237 Total Yards for the Browns, 235 Total Yards for the Ravens.

It’s not a devastating loss for the Ravens, but does feel like a missed opportunity.
It’s also worth noting that the Ravens schedule is going to get harder in the 2nd half of the year, and this is a 2nd loss for the year which feels like it should have been avoidable.

What Happened

Baltimore opened with 66 yards in 11 plays. Henry ran for 11 and 17, Ja’Kobi Lane converted a third-and-6, and Tyler Huntley scrambled 8 yards to the 1. Henry was stopped for no gain and then for a loss of 1. On fourth-and-goal from the 2, Huntley found rookie tight end Josh Cuevas for his first career touchdown.

After a Calais Campbell sack forced a three-and-out, Huntley hit Cuevas for 29 yards, with Maliek Collins’ roughing penalty added on. Declan Doyle lined Cuevas up at left guard, off the line, and released him into the route. A direct snap to Henry gained 3, he lost 2, and Tyler Loop kicked a 34-yard field goal. It was 10-0 with 4:40 left in the first quarter.

The Ravens punted on their next six possessions. Huntley was sacked twice on one second-quarter drive, by Quincy Williams and Collins, and Rashod Bateman left in the second quarter with a shoulder injury and did not return, per AP. Cleveland’s best first-half drive reached the Baltimore 40 before a Jerry Jeudy false start, and Corey Bojorquez’s punt was downed at the 2.

Cleveland opened the second half with 10 plays and 42 yards, converted a fourth-and-1 from its own 37, and Szmyt kicked from 48. It was 10-3.

Baltimore’s best chance to stretch it came next. Zay Flowers caught a 31-yard pass on third-and-11 to the Cleveland 30. Huntley was then sacked for 9 by McGuire, recovered his own aborted snap, and on third-and-22 hit Cuevas for 11. Loop’s 49-yard try on the first play of the fourth quarter went wide left.

With 12:45 left, Henry ran for 5 on first-and-5 at the Baltimore 28. Carson Schwesinger forced the fumble and Tyson Campbell recovered at the 35. The Browns needed seven plays. KC Concepcion caught a 15-yarder on third-and-4, Keyon Martin was called for pass interference on third-and-6 from the 10, and Estime scored from the 2 two plays later.

Rasheen Ali muffed the next kickoff, recovered at the 2 and returned it to the 16. Baltimore went three-and-out. Cleveland drove to the Baltimore 29, where Nnamdi Madubuike’s strip-sack on third-and-8, recovered by Kyle Hamilton, was reversed on review to an incomplete pass. Szmyt missed from 48 with 3:44 left.

The Ravens took over at their 38. Cuevas caught a 2-yard pass, a throw to Flowers was incomplete, and Huntley scrambled 6 yards on third-and-8. A delay of game on fourth-and-2 at the 46 pushed it back 5 yards, and Ryan Eckley punted for a touchback with 2:08 left. Ronnie Stanley was hurt on the second-down incompletion.

Cleveland started at its 20 with 1:59 left and went 62 yards in nine plays. Deshaun Watson hit Jeudy for 33 yards on third-and-5 to the Baltimore 29, and the Browns ran three times to the 23. Martin blocked Szmyt’s 42-yard try with two seconds left, and Travis Jones recovered, but Martin was flagged for offside. Szmyt made it from 37 as time expired.

Without Jackson, Again

Baltimore gained 96 yards and scored 10 points on its first two possessions. On its last nine it gained 139 yards and scored nothing: seven punts, Loop’s miss and the fumble. The offense had 163 yards in the first half and 72 in the second, and by our count from the play-by-play Cleveland held the ball for about 20½ of the 30 second-half minutes.

Huntley completed 19 of 31 for 165 yards and the touchdown, with no interceptions, and ran five times for 28. He was sacked three times, by Williams, Collins and McGuire. The Ravens converted 6 of 16 third downs.

Henry ran 17 times for 58 yards. He had 41 on eight carries in the first quarter, 30 of them on the opening drive, and 17 on nine carries after that. Ravens.com noted before the game that he had at least 23 carries in every game but the Week 2 loss to New Orleans. As a team Baltimore ran 23 times for 87 yards, 3.8 a carry.

That’s the matchup our line rankings pointed to coming in. Baltimore’s offensive line was 13th, eighth in run block win rate at 74%, and gaining 5.1 yards a carry, 0.6 better than its opponents allow. Cleveland’s defensive line was seventh on the numbers and second in run stop win rate at 34%, held out of our top eight because Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr. were hurt. Neither played Sunday, and the Browns still held Baltimore under 4 yards a carry.

On the other side, the protection numbers were the worry. Baltimore came in 21st in pass block win rate with a 7.4% sack rate, 2.1 points worse than its opponents usually allow. Cleveland’s offensive line was 32nd with an 11.3% sack rate. On Sunday the Ravens allowed three sacks and an aborted snap, and Cleveland allowed five.

Vega Ioane made his third straight start at center, as newly acquired Cam Jurgens remains in the concussion protocol. Emery Jones Jr. started at right guard with Andrew Vorhees inactive. The operation had problems. The offense took three delays of game, two of them on third down and one on fourth-and-2, and Huntley had the aborted snap in the third quarter. Andrews had a false start, and a first-quarter play drew both an ineligible-man-downfield and an illegal-formation flag, both declined.

Vinson reported as an extra lineman three times. Henry had two carries for 12 yards with him in.

Flowers caught 6 of 11 targets for 66 yards, including the 31-yarder on third-and-11. Lane, in his first game back from injured reserve, caught 4 of 5 for 40 yards, and three of those catches converted third downs. Cuevas had 4 catches for 44 yards and the touchdown. Mark Andrews caught 1 of 3 targets for 4 yards; the third-and-3 incompletion after the tie was thrown to him. Devontez Walker was 0 for 2, and Bateman 0 for 1 before he left.

I continue to like Huntley as a backup QB, but the limitations are clear.
Cleveland was able to review last week’s game footage vs. Atlanta, and make things harder for the Ravens backup QB.
Huntley didn’t have a strong game, and I don’t think the Coaching staff had him in a great position to succeed.
Huntley was continually facing 3rd and long situations, with the Ravens failing to maximize 1st and 2nd down.

Was good to see Ja’Kobe Lane have his first full day with the Ravens.  4 catches on 5 targets, moving the chains several times.

Short Yardage

Over the last two games Henry has converted one of six carries with 1 or 2 to go, not counting the tying two-point run in Atlanta. The direct snap to Henry showed up again, for 3 yards on first-and-10 at the Cleveland 17.

The Defense

For three quarters the defense did what it hadn’t in Atlanta. Cleveland had 107 yards after 45 minutes, per AP, and converted 1 of 9 third downs, a Watson sneak on third-and-1. Its only points in that span came after a fourth-and-1 conversion at its own 37.

The pass rush finished. Watson was sacked five times: by Campbell and Roquan Smith in the first quarter, Martin in the second, Tavius Robinson and Madubuike splitting one on the first snap of the second half, and Trey Hendrickson on a third-and-4 in the third quarter. Madubuike also had the strip-sack that was reversed on review.

Hendrickson was back after missing two games following finger surgery, and after the game he was waiting outside the X-ray room, per Jeff Zrebiec. Hendrickson called his health “an ongoing process.”

The fourth quarter went the other way. Cleveland gained 130 yards and converted 5 of 8 third downs, counting the interference. The touchdown drive started at the Baltimore 35, the next drive reached the 29 before Szmyt’s miss, and the last one went 62 yards in nine plays.

On the final drive, Estime converted a third-and-1, and Watson threw 33 yards to Jeudy on third-and-5. Malaki Starks made the tackle; the play-by-play doesn’t show who was in coverage. Jeudy finished with four catches for 69 yards, and Concepcion with four for 37 plus the 15-yard third-down catch on the touchdown drive.

Cleveland ran 29 times for 93 yards, 3.2 a carry, without Quinshon Judkins. Watson had eight runs for 29 yards, most of them scrambles.

Martin’s interference on third-and-6 from the 10 turned a fourth-down decision into first-and-goal at the 6. @ryanmink thought Martin played it perfectly and called it a tough call against the Ravens.

“That’s a game we believe we should have won,” Madubuike said, per Zrebiec.

Hamilton led the team with seven tackles. There were no takeaways.

The Ravens Defense had a good day.  They got to Watson, they held the Browns to under 240 Total Yards.
Some of that they deserve credit for, some credit goes to the general ineptness of Cleveland.
A great day for the Ravens Defense would have included a few more stops when absolutely needed.

Penalties And Special Teams

Baltimore had six penalties accepted for 29 yards, a week after five for 40. Two came on defense, after none in Atlanta.

• Offense: Andrews’ false start, and three delays of game, before a third-and-10 in the second quarter, a third-and-5 in the third, and the fourth-and-2 in the fourth.
• Defense: Martin’s interference on the touchdown drive and his offside on the blocked field goal.

Cleveland had six accepted for 45 yards, including Collins’ roughing penalty on the Cuevas catch and a holding call that wiped out a 14-yard McLaughlin run in the third quarter.

Loop made his 34-yarder and missed from 49 wide left, with Baltimore up 10-3. Szmyt made two of three, from 48 and 37, and missed from 48 with 3:44 left.

Eckley punted seven times for a 49.4 average, with three inside the 20. Martin downed two of them, at the Cleveland 4 and the 10. Ali muffed the kickoff after the tying touchdown, recovered it at the 2 and got it back to the 16.

Last Week’s Things To Watch

We listed five. Here’s how each came out.

1. Jackson’s ankle. Minter ruled him out Friday, and Huntley made a second straight start. His three-game winning streak as a starter ended.
2. Jurgens. Still in the protocol and inactive. Ioane started at center for the third straight week, with Jones at right guard. The operation had three delays of game and an aborted snap.
3. The protection. Three sacks and the aborted snap against a Browns front without Graham and Hall Jr.
4. Third downs on defense. Cleveland was 1 of 9 through three quarters and 5 of 8 in the fourth. The Ravens got to Watson five times.
5. Cleveland’s injury list. Graham was inactive, as Adam Schefter had reported, and so was Hall Jr. Concepcion played and had 4 catches for 37 yards.

Takeaways

Henry. 17 carries for 58 yards, stopped twice at the 1, and the fumble that started Cleveland’s comeback. He apologized to the team afterward, Huntley said, per Zrebiec.

Lane. Four catches in his first game back, three of them on third down. Looks like he presents a nice target, with a strong catch-radius. A couple of contested grabs.

Cuevas. His first career touchdown, and the 29-yard catch from the left guard spot. With Matthew Hibner inactive, he was the only rookie tight end available.

The pass rush. Five sacks with Hendrickson back, after three in Atlanta.

Loop. The 49-yard miss with a 10-3 lead, early in the fourth. Was a significant miss. Ravens had the opportunity to make it a 2 score lead.

Week 7: Cincinnati Comes To Baltimore

The Ravens host the Bengals next Sunday, Oct. 25, at 1 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium. CBS has the telecast. The Ravens are given a 53% chance of winning per ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor, and their a 3.5 point favorite per DraftKings. It’s Cincinnati’s first Sunday afternoon game in Baltimore since 2021.

The Bengals are 3-2 and coming off their bye. Baltimore comes off a division road loss.

How Cincinnati got to 3-2

In the Week 4 loss to Jacksonville, Ja’Marr Chase left with a concussion in the first half and Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards with two interceptions. The Bengals ran for 23 yards. Tee Higgins caught 11 passes for 157 yards after Chase went out, per Ravens.com, and left on the final drive with an adductor injury.

In Miami, Chase cleared the protocol and caught six passes for 77 yards, including a one-handed 45-yard touchdown. Burrow threw four touchdown passes, and Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back second-quarter drives. Miami ran 34 times for 217 yards but didn’t sack Burrow.

In our Week 6 rankings the Bengals were 12th overall and fifth in DVOA, with a 10-7 projection and a wild-card spot. Burrow was fourth on our Oct. 6th quarterback list.

The record has had help. In Week 1, 24 of Cincinnati’s 33 points against Tampa Bay came off Buccaneers mistakes, and the defense forced four turnovers. Houston outgained the Bengals 374-267 in Week 2 and lost by 14, after a botched snap on a field goal and a short 58-yard try. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers gained 411 yards, Cincinnati’s special teams gave away 10 points, and Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Burrow ended the Bengals’ last drive near Evan McPherson’s range, per AP. Through five games Cincinnati has outscored opponents 128-109.

When Cincinnati has the ball

The offensive line was sixth in our rankings, first in run block win rate at 77% but 24th in pass block at 46%. It allowed a 4.5% sack rate, a point better than its opponents usually allow, and 3.6 yards a carry. Chase Brown had averaged 2.2 yards a carry over the two games before the bye.

Burrow has carried the offense through the air. Against Jacksonville he threw for 428 yards with 23 rushing yards behind him, and his two interceptions, one in the red zone, were the difference in a five-point loss, as we wrote in Week 5. In Miami he threw four touchdown passes and wasn’t sacked.

The line’s numbers don’t agree with each other. Our Week 5 rankings had it first in run block, with Dalton Risner first among interior linemen and Orlando Brown Jr. second among tackles, but running back Chase Brown has averaged 2.2 a carry over the last two games. In August we noted Cincinnati’s line allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in football last season, and that Burrow’s reluctance to give up on plays keeps his sack totals up. Baltimore had five sacks in Cleveland with Hendrickson back.

Obviously today’s bye should help Chase, Higgins and safety Bryan Cook. Higgins had a groin injury, and receiver Colbie Young (knee) and safety Kyle Dugger (quad) are week to week. Burrow and Chase is one of the league’s elite duo’s.

Zac Taylor said Chase and Higgins both played through injuries in Miami, per Cincinnati Bengals On SI. Taylor’s bye-week list, per Bengals Wire: linebacker Swayze Bozeman to injured reserve with a broken forearm, tight end Tanner Hudson with a pectoral injury from special teams, and Dugger still week to week.

Hendrickson of course signed with Baltimore from Cincinnati, and this is his first game against the Bengals since he signed. He returns to Cincinnati on New Year’s Eve.

When Baltimore has the ball

Cincinnati’s defensive line was 18th in our rankings. It was sixth in run stop win rate at 31%, but allowed 5.0 yards a carry, 0.7 worse than its opponents usually gain. Its pass rush win rate was 48%, 23rd, though its 9.2% sack rate was above expectation.

Cincinnati spent its offseason on this side of the ball. It sent the No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and added Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Dugger, with Cashius Howell in the second round. Our August preview named the linebacker room, graded a 4 by Mike Clay, as the weakness, and Bozeman’s injury thins it.

Al Golden’s plan showed in Houston. On the Texans’ first third down he sent eight, with Lawrence dropping into coverage and Cook coming free off the edge, per FOX19. Lawrence had dropped into coverage only twice since 2022 before that game, per NFL Pro data cited in that piece. Late in the half the Bengals showed seven rushers on third-and-13 and rushed four. Houston’s running backs gained 18 yards on 14 carries, and Cincinnati stopped 10 of 11 third downs of medium or long distance. Golden had cut his blitz rate to one of the league’s lowest last season after his pressures broke down.

It hasn’t held since. Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side kept Lawrence quiet in Week 3, and Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards. Miami ran for 217. After two weeks the front was tied for the league lead with eight sacks; going into Week 6 it was 18th in our rankings and 23rd in pass rush win rate.

That points the Ravens back to early downs. In Cleveland, 11 of their 16 third downs needed 8 yards or more, by our count from the play-by-play, and they converted three of them. Against a run defense allowing 5.0 a carry, first and second down are where Baltimore can stay out of the long third downs Golden’s pressure is built for.

Jackson has missed two games with his ankle. Matt Jergensen predicted last week that he’d be back for this one.

Last season

The teams split last season. Cincinnati won 32-14 in Baltimore on Thanksgiving, in Burrow’s first game back from a Week 2 toe injury. The Ravens turned it over five times, and the Bengals kicked four field goals off them. Baltimore won the rematch 24-0 in Cincinnati in Week 15. Burrow went 25 of 39 for 225 yards with two interceptions, and Henry ran 11 times for 100 yards.

Things To Watch

1. Jackson’s ankle. The practice reports, and whether Huntley makes a third straight start.
2. The line. Whether Jurgens clears the protocol, which moves Ioane back to right guard, and Stanley’s injury from the final possession.
3. Bateman’s shoulder. And how much of the passing game goes to Lane and Cuevas if he can’t play.
4. The run game. 3.8 yards a carry in Cleveland, against a Bengals front allowing 5.0, 0.7 worse than expected.
5. Chase and Higgins out of the bye. Both were hurt in Week 4, and Higgins’ groin is the one to follow.
6. Hendrickson. His first game against his former team, a week after the X-ray.
7. The fourth quarter. Cleveland gained 130 yards and converted 5 of 8 third downs in it. If this is a close game in the 4th, can the Ravens close?

It’s a Home Division Game.  You expect to win these games. Back-to-back Division losses wouldn’t have the Ravens in a ideal place within the AFC North.

The post Browns Edge Ravens At The Gun; Cincinnati Is Next appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Quick Hits

Auburn 27, Georgia 24. We moved Georgia to No. 1 a week ago and wrote that the gap to Alabama was small. Both of them lost. Georgia led 14-0, then Auburn scored the next 24 points, and Alex McPherson kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Byrum Brown ran for 115 yards on 26 carries and threw a touchdown pass, and Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113. Gunner Stockton tied the game with a 94-yard drive in the fourth quarter, then lost a fumble at the Auburn 46 with 58 seconds left, and a roughing-the-passer penalty helped set up the winning kick. Stockton also threw two interceptions, doubling his season total. Georgia committed three personal fouls, played without KJ Bolden, and got 19 yards on nine carries from Nate Frazier in his return from a rib injury.

The loss ended Georgia’s 53-game winning streak against unranked teams. According to the AP, it was the first time since October 1990 that the No. 1 team lost in consecutive weeks, and ESPN notes that Texas and Georgia are the first No. 1 teams to lose on the final play in consecutive weeks. Auburn was a 20-point underdog.

BYU 28, Notre Dame 24. We said 12.5 points was a few too many at night in Provo and took BYU. We did not say BYU would win. Bear Bachmeier ran for two touchdowns, caught another and threw the winner, a 6-yard pass to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left. Notre Dame drove to the BYU 9 with four seconds left, and CJ Carr’s last pass fell incomplete in the end zone. The Irish also fumbled away a scoring chance at the BYU 5 before halftime when Carr lost the ball trying to spike it, only their second turnover of the season. According to the AP, Bachmeier is the first quarterback since Steve Young in the 1983 Holiday Bowl with a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game. It was BYU’s first win over Notre Dame since 2004 and its first over a top-10 team since 2018, and it came without LJ Martin.

Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. We picked Ohio State to win and Indiana to cover four points. Ohio State won by four. Julian Sayin hit Jeremiah Smith for a 38-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter for a 19-7 lead, then left with an injured right arm. Ryan Day says he will miss several weeks. Josh Hoover, back from an arm injury of his own, brought Indiana within four, and with 1:02 left he found Nick Marsh wide open at the front corner of the end zone. Marsh’s left foot came down on the white paint. The loss ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak and was Curt Cignetti’s first home loss in three seasons. Indiana had lost no fumbles in 1,487 snaps since the start of 2025, and it lost two early in the third quarter. Freshman Luke Fahey finished the game for Ohio State and threw two incomplete passes.

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10. We had Alabama by 10. DeSean Bishop ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns, and Tennessee held Alabama to 201 yards, 54 of them on the ground, and 2 of 13 on third down. Alabama turned it over four times. Keelon Russell threw for 147 yards and two interceptions, and Ryan Coleman-Williams did not play. The Tide had 93 yards in the first half, and Tennessee’s last touchdown drive took 9:32 off the fourth-quarter clock. Alabama has lost consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2007.

Florida 27, Texas 24. Last week we wrote that Texas had no loss left to give. It then lost at home to a Florida team starting its backup quarterback. Tramell Jones Jr., in for the injured Aaron Philo, threw two touchdown passes to Lacota Dippre, and Jadan Baugh’s 11-yard run gave Florida the lead in the fourth quarter. Texas had led 17-3 in the second quarter. Florida’s defense, last in the SEC coming in, held Texas under 300 yards and sacked Arch Manning five times, the last one forcing a fumble on the Longhorns’ final possession. Edge rusher Colin Simmons left in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury. CBS notes that Texas is the first top-10 team since 2003 to blow a double-digit lead to an unranked opponent in consecutive weeks, and Steve Sarkisian said afterward that everything would be evaluated, including the play-calling. It was Florida’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012, and CBS notes it ended Manning’s streak of 11 straight home wins as a starter.

Miami 43, Florida State 35, in double overtime. Miami is one of five unbeaten teams left in the power conferences, and it very nearly was not. Darian Mensah threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, the last a 3-yarder to Malachi Toney in the second overtime. Toney caught 11 passes for 154 yards and threw the two-point conversion. Florida State had a 36-yard completion on fourth-and-21 called back for holding, and the game ended on Bryce Fitzgerald’s interception in the end zone, which held up on review. Mike Norvell disputed both calls. Mensah threw his first interception at Miami after 153 attempts without one.

LSU 31, Mississippi State 0. We held Mississippi State at 19 last week on the belief that Kamario Taylor was hurt, and wrote, “This is where we find out.” We found out. Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell did not play, Parker Puckett made his first start, and LSU shut the Bulldogs out. Mississippi State drove inside the LSU 40 five times and came away empty on fourth down every time. Sam Leavitt completed 31 of 38 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns, his first turnover-free game of the season, and it was LSU’s first shutout of an SEC opponent since 2007. Mississippi State has lost two straight, each by more than 30 points. ESPN’s view is that the game was too lopsided for Taylor’s absence to explain it. We took Mississippi State and the points and the over. Both were wrong.

Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32. Last week we wrote that the winner would have a case for our playoff table. Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns, and Houston led 14-3 at halftime before the teams combined for 50 points in the second half. Oklahoma State got within three with 4:54 left, and Houston ran out the clock on an 18-yard catch by Trent Walker on third-and-7 and a Weigman run for a first down. Houston is 6-1, and its only loss is the failed two-point try at Texas Tech. We had Houston covering 3.5. It won by three.

Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. Kentucky is tied with Georgia for the SEC lead. The Wildcats trailed 13-7 late in the third quarter before Ty Bryant’s first of two interceptions set up Kenny Minchey’s 12-yard touchdown pass to Willie Hernandez. Kentucky intercepted John Mateer three times and Oklahoma’s holder once, on a fake field goal that Jordan Castell picked off in the end zone. Castell’s 41-yard interception return sealed it. Kentucky gained 230 yards and won anyway, its fifth straight win under Will Stein.

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3. Trinidad Chambliss threw three touchdown passes and ran for another, and Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards and Makhi Frazier for 101. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts came in off two straight 200-yard games and ran for 39 yards on 20 carries, and the Tigers finished with 39 rushing yards as a team. Missouri had first-and-goal at the Ole Miss 2 and came away with nothing after Blake Craig missed a 23-yard field goal. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards in his return to Oxford.

The rest of the ranked teams. UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7 with Ty Dieffenbach throwing for 264 yards in his first start; Iamaleava did not play. Texas Tech led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime and won 53-25, with J’Koby Williams running for 165 yards on 11 carries. Utah, a 15-point favorite, held on 27-24 at Colorado. Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14 when Dylan Raiola came off the bench and threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Jamari Johnson with 28 seconds left; Dante Moore is still out with a concussion. Wake Forest won 41-7 at Cal, SMU beat Virginia by 10 and Northwestern won 24-21 at Michigan State. North Carolina won 24-20 at Duke on Jaylen McGill’s 24-yard run with 1:53 left, and Pitt lost 27-21 at Boston College with true freshman Corey Dailey making his first start. New Mexico beat Hawaii 21-10, and James Madison beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0. Michigan benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr and beat Penn State 21-18, and Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the Big Ten. Iowa, USC and Boise State were off.

Power Rankings

Miami moves up two, to No. 1. The Hurricanes are 6-0 and the only one of last week’s top three that won. We are not moving them for how they played on Saturday, when a 3-4 Florida State team took them to a second overtime at home. We are moving them because the two teams ahead of them lost and Miami did not. ESPN’s committee projection also has Miami first, while pointing out that it still lacks a statement win. Its best wins are at Wake Forest and at Clemson, and FPI gives it a 94.8 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country. Miami goes to Notre Dame on November 7th.

Ohio State holds at No. 2. The Buckeyes won at a top-five team, and FPI and SP+ both now rate them first in the country. The question is Sayin. We are not moving Ohio State down for an injury to a quarterback who is expected back in weeks, but it makes the next two games, at USC on October 31st and at home against Oregon on November 7th, harder than they looked a week ago. If the Buckeyes lose one of them, we will move them then. Fahey, a freshman, was 9 of 11 for 203 yards and two touchdowns in mop-up time against Ball State and Kent State. CBS points out that Ohio State’s defense is allowing 13.4 points a game, which is the best argument that it can win with a game manager at quarterback. Both FPI and CBS’s projections give Ohio State about a 90 percent chance of making the playoff.

BYU moves up six. BYU beat Notre Dame without its leading rusher, and ESPN calls it the best win of any team in its top five. We move the Cougars past Georgia, who lost at home to an unranked team, and past Notre Dame, whom they just beat. We keep them behind Ohio State, which won at a top-five team on the road and which both models rate first; FPI has BYU 14th and SP+ ninth. SP+’s résumé ranking agrees with our order at the top, with BYU sixth, one spot behind Ohio State and two ahead of Georgia. BYU stays ahead of Utah, as we said it would, until they play on November 7th.

Georgia drops three. A home loss to a 4-2 Auburn team that was a 20-point underdog is a worse loss than any team above Georgia has. We keep the Bulldogs ahead of Notre Dame because they have two wins that still hold up, 41-13 over the Oklahoma team that beat Texas and at Alabama, and because FPI still rates them third and SP+ second. Georgia has an off week, then plays Florida, goes to Ole Miss and hosts Missouri.

Notre Dame drops one. Losing on the final play, on the road, to an unbeaten top-10 team is the kind of loss the committee forgives, and ESPN calls it a good loss in that room. It costs one spot. The problem for the Irish is what is left to make up for it. They have no conference title game, and ESPN notes their only wins over power-conference teams with winning records are Wisconsin and at North Carolina. Miami comes to South Bend on November 7th.

Texas Tech moves up two. The Red Raiders are 6-0 and led Arizona State 43-10 at halftime, and the AP notes they are 18-2 since the start of last season. They move past Indiana, which lost. SP+ moved them up three spots, to seventh. ESPN still has them 12th in its committee projection, and bumped out of its bracket by Boise State, because their best win is Houston and Will Hammond has six touchdown passes and five interceptions. We have them sixth because they have not lost and because Saturday was the first time all year they looked like the reigning Big 12 champion.

Utah moves up two. Utah won 27-24 at a 2-4 Colorado team as a 15-point favorite. That does not earn a move on its own; the Utes move because Georgia, Alabama and Texas fell past them. The AP notes that Utah’s 12 straight wins are now the longest active streak in the country. ESPN notes that it has not beaten a team with a winning record, and SP+ dropped the Utes three spots to 10th and has their schedule 116th of 138. Houston, on Saturday, is the first chance.

UCLA moves up two. The Bruins are 6-0 and the last unbeaten team in the Big Ten or SEC, and they won on Saturday with their backup quarterback. Dieffenbach completed 22 of 33 passes, and UCLA held Wisconsin to 66 passing yards. We keep them behind Utah because they have not scored more than 17 points in either of their last two games, which ESPN also flags. SP+ is split on them: it rates them 19th, but its résumé ranking has them fourth. Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan come before USC.

Ole Miss moves up two. The Rebels beat a team ranked 13th by 28 points and ran for 257 yards. ESPN’s committee projection has them seventh, with wins over LSU and Missouri that it calls statement wins. The 24-point loss at Florida is still on the résumé, and Ole Miss still has Texas, Georgia, Auburn and Oklahoma to play.

Tennessee moves up three. The Vols held Alabama scoreless for three quarters, forced four turnovers and won by 16. Their only loss is to Texas, and they have won three straight. ESPN notes that their schedule otherwise has been thin, with wins over an FCS team and a 1-5 Kennesaw State. Kentucky comes to Knoxville on November 7th.

Why Tennessee is ahead of Texas. Texas beat Tennessee in Knoxville, and we have Tennessee six spots ahead. That game was close, and Texas nearly lost it. Since then Texas has lost to Oklahoma and Florida, and Tennessee has won three straight, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Alabama. Tennessee is 6-1, and its one loss is to Texas. Texas is 4-2. The committee uses head-to-head results to separate teams with comparable records, and ESPN’s view this week is that two losses against one no longer qualifies. We are ranking the better team today, and we think that is Tennessee.

Alabama drops seven. Two straight losses, the second by 16 with 201 yards of offense and four turnovers. Both losses are to top-11 teams in our ranking, and the Tide stay ahead of Kentucky because they beat the Wildcats by 28 in Lexington. A margin that large outweighs the one game between them in the standings. The win by 33 at Mississippi State also still stands. FPI still rates Alabama sixth and gives it a 49.4 percent chance of making the playoff, and SP+, which dropped it four spots, has it 12th with the eighth-hardest schedule in the country. Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa on Saturday.

Kentucky moves up three. The Wildcats won at Oklahoma and are tied with Georgia for the SEC lead at 4-1. They have won five straight, three of them on the road in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has them ninth on schedule strength. They are 13th here, one spot behind Alabama, because Alabama beat them 45-17 in Lexington and because their last three wins came by one, one and eight points. SP+ rates them 45th and Alabama 12th. Vanderbilt is next.

Houston enters at 14. The Cougars are 6-1, have won four straight and beat a ranked team for the first time this season. Their loss is by a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech. We put them behind Alabama because their best wins, Oklahoma State and at Kansas State, are not as good as Alabama’s. SP+ rates them 18th. They go to Utah on Saturday.

Texas drops 11. That matches the biggest drop we have made this season. The Longhorns have lost two straight to unranked teams, and the problem is the one we have written about all year. CBS has Texas at 3.66 yards a carry coming into Saturday, 117th in the country, with the worst three-and-out rate in the SEC, and the AP wrote that Manning has struggled for four straight games. We do not drop them further because they still have the two best wins of any two-loss team, over Ohio State and at Tennessee, and because FPI still rates them seventh and SP+ eighth, with the second-hardest schedule in the country. Ole Miss comes to Austin on Saturday.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. We explained this last week and said the order would change if Ohio State lost at Indiana. It did not, and Texas lost again. Ohio State is 6-1 and Texas is 4-2. ESPN’s committee projection makes the same point we did: with Texas at two losses, the committee would no longer use the head-to-head to break a tie, because the records are no longer comparable.

Wake Forest enters at 19. The Demon Deacons are 6-1, their only loss is to Miami, and they won 41-7 at Cal. FPI rates them 16th, SP+ moved them up 15 spots to 20th, and FPI gives them a 40.0 percent chance of making the playoff, mostly as the likely ACC runner-up. They are off this week.

Boise State enters at 20. The Broncos were off. They come in because Missouri lost by 28 and falls out, and because FPI rates Boise about even with Missouri on a neutral field, 30th to 27th. Boise has one loss, by seven at Oregon, and has won five straight, including at Fresno State and by 25 over Western Michigan, the MAC favorite. Missouri has the better win, over Florida, and that made this close. The two SP+ numbers split the same way we did: SP+ rates Missouri about four points better, but its résumé ranking has Boise 19th and Missouri 34th. It goes to Washington State on Saturday.

Missouri, Mississippi State and Nebraska leave the ranking. Missouri lost 31-3 at Ole Miss and ran for 39 yards, and it now has two losses to Boise State’s one. Mississippi State has lost its last two by a combined 64 points, and we are no longer willing to rank the Bulldogs on the strength of a quarterback who has not played. Nebraska has lost two straight after leading in the fourth quarter of both.

Indiana holds at seven after a four-point loss to the No. 2 team: Texas Tech passed it, but Alabama and Texas fell from above it to below it. Iowa holds at 15 and USC moves up one to 16; both were off. LSU holds at 18 after its shutout. Texas dropped in above it, and both of LSU’s losses are to teams ahead of it here, Ole Miss and Kentucky. Missouri is the first team out, ahead of Florida, which it beat by 28. Florida has wins over Texas and Ole Miss, but it also lost by 19 to South Carolina before Saturday. It is off this week, then plays Georgia in Atlanta, and CBS points out that after that it has Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, a path to 10 wins. Oregon, SMU, Northwestern and James Madison are the rest of the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll has BYU first, then Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. It has UCLA ninth, Tennessee 10th, Utah 11th and Alabama 12th, brings Florida back in at 18 and drops Texas to 19. It also projects Oregon back in at 25 and drops Mississippi State and Oklahoma State. The real poll was not out at press time.

The real post-Week 6 AP poll did come out after we published last week, and it differed from the CBS projection we used on our board. The AP had Ohio State fourth and Texas seventh, the order we argued for, where the projection had Texas fourth and Ohio State fifth. It also had Indiana fifth, Alabama sixth, Mississippi State 16th and LSU 22nd. Our board used the projection’s rankings, labeled as such.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Miami, Ohio State, BYU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Georgia, Ole Miss, UCLA, Kentucky, Tennessee, Utah and Texas Tech, with Boise State taking Texas Tech’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. Its byes go to Miami, Ohio State, BYU and Notre Dame. The first real committee ranking comes out November 3rd.

CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and BYU in the top four, then Indiana, Tennessee, Ole Miss, UCLA, Alabama, Kentucky and Notre Dame, with Oregon State in the 12th spot as the top Group of Six team. That makes three outside projections with three different Group of Six teams: ESPN has Boise State, CBS has Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. CBS also has Alabama in its field and Texas Tech out of it, and it has Notre Dame 11th. None of the three outside projections has Texas in its twelve.

We differ from ESPN and the poll projection in three places. We have Georgia fourth, ahead of Notre Dame and Indiana, where ESPN has the Bulldogs sixth; we give more weight to the win in Tuscaloosa than ESPN does, and CBS’s bowl projection goes further than we do and seeds Georgia second. We have Texas Tech sixth and in our twelve, where ESPN has it 12th and out of the bracket, for the second straight week. And we have Tennessee ahead of Kentucky, where ESPN has Kentucky ahead on schedule strength.

FPI’s October 18th run has Ohio State first, then Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Indiana, Alabama and Texas. That is our top seven with BYU and Texas Tech swapped out for Alabama and Texas. FPI has LSU eighth, Texas Tech ninth and Oregon 10th, and it is lower than us on the three teams that have won the most this year without being highly rated: BYU 14th, Kentucky 26th and UCLA 31st. As we said last week, FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here, and we give more weight to the results a team already has.

SP+’s October 18th run also has Ohio State first, then Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame and Indiana, and it is closer to FPI than to us. It has LSU sixth, Texas Tech seventh, Texas eighth, BYU ninth and Utah 10th, and it dropped Alabama four spots to 12th. It moved Wake Forest up 15 spots to 20th and James Madison up 12 to 28th. It is well below us on Kentucky, at 45th, and on UCLA, at 19th. It has Missouri 21st and Boise State 37th, the opposite of our order at No. 20, and for a third straight week it rates Nebraska, at 16th, higher than we do. Its résumé ranking, which grades what each team has done against its schedule, goes Miami, Notre Dame, Utah, UCLA, Ohio State, BYU, Texas Tech, Georgia, Indiana and Tennessee, with James Madison 11th and Boise State 19th. It has Texas’s schedule second-hardest in the country and Alabama’s eighth.

The Playoff Field

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are large. Alabama and Texas each lose 24 points, matching the biggest cut we have made this season. Alabama falls to 50 with two losses and Georgia holding the tiebreaker over it, and Texas falls to 40 with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. ESPN points out that a year ago Alabama made the field with three losses and Texas missed it at 9-3, which is about where each of them stands now. CBS’s projections give Texas a 43 percent chance of making the field, and FPI 41.2. CBS had Texas in its bowl projection a week ago and has it out now.

BYU gains 24 points, to 66, for what ESPN calls the best win of any team in its top five. Tennessee gains 20, to 44, for beating Alabama by 16. Ole Miss and Kentucky each gain 14 and UCLA gains 12, all three for winning on a day when the teams above them lost. Texas Tech gains eight, LSU six, and Miami and Ohio State four apiece. Ohio State’s gain would have been larger with Sayin healthy. Utah gains two for a win that was closer than it should have been.

Georgia and Notre Dame each give back 12. Georgia’s loss was at home to an unranked team, but it still holds the tiebreaker over Alabama and has Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri left to make up for it. Notre Dame has no conference title game to fall back on and has Miami still to play. Indiana gives back four, the same Alabama gave back a week ago for a close loss to a top-two team. Missouri loses 14 and falls into the field.

Houston joins the table at 24, as we said the winner of its game would, and Wake Forest joins at 18. Missouri, Nebraska and Mississippi State fall into the field. The field drops from 1.80 to 1.54, because Houston and Wake Forest left it for the table and because Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Pitt all lost. It now holds Oregon, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Northwestern, Wisconsin, SMU and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. Boise State is 20th in our ranking now, but its chance stays in that line rather than getting a row of its own, so the line can still be compared with August. The next section explains how the line divides.

The Group of Six Race

One playoff spot goes to the highest-ranked conference champion outside the power conferences, and it no longer has a clear favorite. ESPN’s committee projection gives it to Boise State, CBS’s bowl projection gives it to Oregon State, and FPI’s playoff odds now favor James Madison. Here is how the candidates compare.

Records against ranked teams count teams ranked when the game was played. FPI and SP+ ranks are from each system’s October 18th run, résumé SP+ grades what each team has done against its schedule, and each playoff number is FPI’s estimate of that team’s chance of making the 12-team field.

Who is best. The models disagree. FPI rates Boise State about four points better than James Madison or New Mexico on a neutral field. SP+ goes the other way, with James Madison 28th, New Mexico 30th and Boise 37th, about three points behind the Dukes, and résumé SP+ has James Madison 11th and Boise 19th. We have Boise in our twenty because its only loss was by seven at Oregon and because it has the best wins in the group, by 25 over Western Michigan and at Fresno State. It is closer than one system alone would suggest. UTSA is not close in either: 77th in FPI and 69th in SP+.

Who is likeliest to get the spot. James Madison, narrowly, and only because of its record. The Dukes are 7-0, FPI gives them a 39.4 percent chance of winning out to Boise’s 30.8, and the committee rewards an unbeaten champion. The case against them is the schedule. They have not played a ranked team, SP+ has their schedule 127th of 138, and the next Sun Belt team in FPI is 76th.

Who else. New Mexico is 5-1, its only loss is 14-6 at Oklahoma, and it hosts North Dakota State on Saturday night in the Mountain West’s biggest game. Oregon State leads the Pac-12 at 3-0 and is the team CBS projects into the field, but it has two losses and FPI gives it a 3.0 percent chance. UTSA leads the American at 3-0 and is 6-1, but FPI rates it 77th, and it would need the teams above it to lose. Liberty is 2-0 in Conference USA, behind Jacksonville State at 3-0, and is 64th in FPI, though it has a 67.6 percent chance of winning the league.

We put Boise State’s share of our 1.12 at about 36 percent and James Madison’s a little higher, with the rest spread among New Mexico, Oregon State, UTSA and the others. This week James Madison plays at App State on Thursday, Boise goes to Washington State, UTSA goes to Tulane, and New Mexico hosts North Dakota State.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73, Wake Forest 11 (up 2), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 2 (down 1), Duke 1 (down 2), field 3 (up 1). Miami won and holds; nothing about a double-overtime win over a 3-4 team argues for raising it. Wake Forest moves up after its 34-point win at Cal. Duke has lost two straight, to Georgia Tech and now North Carolina, both on touchdowns inside the last two minutes, and ESPN calls the defending champions just another mediocre ACC team. Pitt lost at Boston College, its second straight loss since Mason Heintschel’s injury. North Carolina, now 2-1 in the league, is why the field grows. FPI has Miami at 79.6 percent and Wake Forest at 13.7.

SEC. Georgia 40 (down 6), Ole Miss 13 (up 8), Tennessee 12 (up 10), Kentucky 10 (up 7), Alabama 9 (down 11), LSU 5 (up 3), Texas 4 (down 10), Missouri 2 (down 2), Florida 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Oklahoma and Mississippi State fall into the field with Texas A&M and Auburn. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Georgia’s tiebreaker over Alabama matters less now that Alabama has two. Kentucky’s number trails Tennessee’s and Ole Miss’s because it still goes to Knoxville and has Florida and Missouri left. Texas is 1-2 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 45.4 percent, Alabama at 12.7, Tennessee at 10.3 and Ole Miss at 9.9.

Big Ten. Ohio State 50 (up 8), Indiana 22 (down 12), UCLA 12 (up 6), Iowa 5, Oregon 4 (up 1), USC 3, Wisconsin 1 (down 2), Nebraska 1 (down 1), field 2. Ohio State is 4-0 and holds the tiebreaker over Indiana. The race is no longer just two teams. UCLA is also 4-0, and its remaining schedule does not include Ohio State or Indiana. FPI has Ohio State at 57.9 percent, Indiana at 28.2, Oregon at 5.3 and UCLA at 4.3.

Big 12. Texas Tech 31 (up 1), BYU 27 (up 3), Utah 27, Houston 8 (up 1), Arizona 2, Baylor 2, Oklahoma State 1 (down 4), field 2 (down 1). BYU moves up because Saturday was the best evidence yet of how good it is, though the result does not count in the standings. Utah won and holds. Oklahoma State took its first league loss, and the field shrinks because Arizona State, part of it, lost by 28 in Lubbock. FPI has Texas Tech at 38.1 percent, BYU at 27.2, Utah at 21.6 and Houston at 8.5.

Pac-12. Boise State 64, Oregon State 20, Fresno State 7, Washington State 4, Texas State 2, San Diego State 1, Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. No changes. Boise State was off and goes to Washington State on Saturday. FPI has Boise at 65.1 percent and Oregon State at 29.5.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a seventh week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC, the Pac-12, the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC, the same split as a week ago. SP+ counts it differently again, with eight from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, five from the Big 12 and four from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because of FPI’s ten-to-seven edge and because the SEC has three of SP+’s top eight teams to the Big Ten’s two.

The SEC has no unbeaten teams left. ESPN counted six SEC games on Saturday with at least one ranked team, and in four of them the lower-ranked team won. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss each have one league loss, and Alabama and Texas both have two losses overall after being national title contenders two weeks ago. Arkansas beat Vanderbilt 31-21 for its first SEC win. CBS projected five SEC teams in the playoff before the weekend, and ESPN has four in its twelve now. Georgia is off this week. Ole Miss goes to Texas, Tennessee to South Carolina and LSU to Auburn, and Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt.

The Big Ten has one unbeaten team, and it is UCLA. Ohio State has the tiebreaker over Indiana and the bye week it needs to plan for Fahey, then goes to USC on Halloween. USC plays at Wisconsin on Saturday before facing Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks, so its season gets decided in the next month. Indiana goes to Michigan, which benched Bryce Underwood for Tommy Carr in a 21-18 win over Penn State. Penn State is 3-4 and 0-4 in the league under Matt Campbell. Oregon is 2-1 in the league after winning with its third-string starter and Raiola off the bench. Nebraska has blown fourth-quarter leads in back-to-back weeks. At the bottom, Rutgers beat Maryland 37-30, and CBS notes Mike Locksley is now 2-20 in Big Ten games since 2024.

The Big 12 still has three unbeaten teams, all of them 3-0 in the league, and ESPN’s committee projection has all three in its twelve. Texas Tech goes to Cincinnati, and Utah hosts Houston, which has one league loss and cannot afford a second. BYU goes to UCF. Texas Tech does not play BYU or Utah, so the league’s best path to two bids is a one-loss runner-up. Arizona State, which won the league two years ago, has lost consecutive Big 12 games by more than five touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 2-1 and hosts Colorado, and it still gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th.

The ACC has one unbeaten team in Miami and one serious challenger in Wake Forest, which is off this week. Duke, the defending champion, has lost two straight. North Carolina is 4-2 under Bill Belichick and has won as a road underdog in back-to-back weeks. Florida State is 3-4 and the AP notes it is 10-22 in its last 32 games under Mike Norvell. SMU is 5-1 and hosts Cal. Pitt lost 27-21 at a Boston College team that came in 2-3, with Corey Dailey, a true freshman, making his first start, and the Panthers were flagged 13 times for 133 yards. Miami hosts Pitt on Saturday, then goes to North Carolina on October 31st.

The Pac-12 is still the best of the group. Its average team rates higher in FPI than any league below it, and FPI has Boise State 30th and Oregon State 49th, the only league in the group with two teams in the top 50. Its average also leads in SP+. Its median team now rates slightly better than the American’s in FPI, which was the other way around a week ago, but SP+ still has the American’s median ahead. SP+ is also cooler on the top of the league, with Boise 37th and Oregon State 39th, both behind James Madison and New Mexico. Two of its eight teams are below 100th. Oregon State leads the standings at 3-0, with Boise State at 2-0. The change this week is at the top of the Group of Six. FPI now gives James Madison a better chance of making the playoff than Boise State, though ESPN’s committee projection still has Boise as the top Group of Six team. Boise goes to Washington State on Saturday.

The American still has no team in FPI’s top 50, and it got less deep this week. Five of its 14 teams are now below 100th, up from three. UTSA leads the standings at 3-0 and is 6-1 overall, and FPI gives the Roadrunners a 3.9 percent chance of making the playoff, the best in the league. FPI still makes North Texas, which is 2-0 in the league, the favorite to win it, at 31.2 percent, with UTSA and Memphis at 20.1 each and Army at 15.8. Memphis is 5-2, 57th in FPI and 51st in SP+, the highest-rated team in the league in both, and it hosts East Carolina on Thursday. UTSA goes to Tulane on Saturday.

The Mountain West has New Mexico, 5-1 and 43rd in FPI, with a 63.1 percent chance of winning the league after a 21-10 win at Hawaii. SP+ has New Mexico 30th and North Dakota State 35th, the best pair in any Group of Six league. North Dakota State is 6-1 and goes to New Mexico on Saturday night in the game most likely to decide the league. Air Force is the new contender. After losing to North Dakota State early in the season, it has won four straight, including 41-31 over UNLV, which was the Rebels’ first league loss. Half of the league’s ten teams are below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison, which beat Georgia State 49-22 to go to 7-0 and is now FPI’s best Group of Six playoff candidate. SP+ moved them up 12 spots to 28th, the highest of any Group of Six team, and its résumé ranking has them 11th. FPI gives the Dukes a 73.8 percent chance of winning the league and a 44.3 percent chance of making the playoff. They play at App State on Thursday night. They have also yet to play a ranked opponent. The rest of the league is the problem for them. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is Louisiana, at 76th, and half the league is below 100th.

The MAC is still last by a wide margin. Its best team in FPI is Western Michigan at 81st, and its best in SP+ is Toledo at 65th, and 10 of its 13 teams are below 100th. Western Michigan is 5-2 and 3-0 in the league, with a 47.9 percent chance of winning it, and it goes to Toledo, which is 5-2 and 2-1, on Saturday. Ohio is the only other team unbeaten in league play, and it does not play Western Michigan. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 8 Board

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 24th. Kickoff times and networks are from CBS’s schedule, and three of the four were still to be announced. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, and percentages are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor; each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. No line had been posted for Houston at Utah when we went to press. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 7 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. The market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in all three games with a line. The biggest gap in degree is in Austin, where ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning a game the market makes a three-point spread.

Predictions

Miami 34, Pittsburgh 13. ESPN gives Miami a 92.4 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make the gap about 20 points at Hard Rock Stadium. SP+ makes it about 18. The line is 23.5. Miami is the better team by a lot, but it just gave up 35 points and 298 passing yards to a Florida State team that is 3-4. Pitt has lost two straight since Mason Heintschel’s season-ending injury, to North Carolina and at Boston College, and started a true freshman, Corey Dailey, in the second of them. Dailey completed 11 of 25 passes with two interceptions, and Pitt was flagged 13 times. We think Miami wins comfortably and does not quite get to 24. Miami wins, Pittsburgh covers. Under.

What it means. Miami’s playoff case does not rest on this game, but its seeding might. ESPN’s point is that Miami would still make the field even with a loss at Notre Dame on November 7th, because an ACC title would get it in. A loss to Pitt would use up that margin before November, and it would put Miami in the loss column with Wake Forest, the team ESPN expects it to see again in the ACC title game. For Pitt, a third straight loss ends its ACC hopes.

BYU 27, UCF 17. ESPN gives BYU a 70.7 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about 10 points in Orlando. SP+ makes it about 14, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country against a UCF offense it ranks 81st. The line is 7.5. The obvious worry is a letdown, a week after the biggest win of the season and on the road across the country. But UCF is 3-3 and 51st in FPI. Bachmeier is playing as well as any quarterback in the country, and LJ Martin’s status is worth watching. We think BYU wins by double digits in a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. BYU wins and covers. Under.

What it means. BYU’s playoff case is now built on the Notre Dame win, and a loss to a 3-3 team would take much of the shine off it before the first committee ranking on November 3rd. The bigger stakes are in the Big 12. BYU and Utah play on November 7th, and the league’s best chance at two playoff bids is for one of them to be a one-loss runner-up. BYU at 7-0 going into Salt Lake City keeps that possible.

Utah 28, Houston 24. ESPN gives Utah a 67.1 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings make it about five points at Rice-Eccles Stadium. SP+ makes it about seven and a half. No line had been posted when we went to press. Utah has scored a touchdown on its opening drive in every game and has outscored opponents 75-3 in the first quarter, which matters because Houston’s offense is at its best once it gets going. Houston’s offense is the best Utah will have seen. Weigman threw for 343 yards against Oklahoma State, and Houston had 505 yards. We think Utah’s start and its home field are the difference. Utah wins.

What it means. Houston already has one league loss, and a second would leave it needing two of the three unbeaten teams to lose twice. A Houston win would put the Cougars level with Utah in the loss column and give them the best win in the Big 12 race so far. For Utah, this is the first chance to beat a team with a winning record, which ESPN says is the biggest hole in its résumé. Winning it would make November 7th against BYU a game between two unbeaten teams for a place in the Big 12 title game.

Texas 27, Ole Miss 20. ESPN gives Texas a 71.1 percent chance of winning, the line is Texas by three, and FPI’s ratings make it about seven in Austin. SP+ makes it about six and a half. We rank Ole Miss seven spots ahead of Texas, and the Rebels have the better season. This pick is about one game in Austin, and both models think Texas wins it. Texas’s problem all year has been its offense. It came into Saturday averaging 3.66 yards a carry, 117th in the country, and Florida, the worst defense in the SEC, sacked Arch Manning five times. But the defense is still the strength of the team, fifth in the country in SP+, and Ole Miss’s defense is 42nd and allows 23.8 points a game, the most of the three one-loss teams ESPN grouped together in its projection. That is the matchup Texas’s offense has been waiting for. The worry is Colin Simmons, Texas’s best pass rusher, who left the Florida game with an ankle injury. Ole Miss just ran for 257 yards against Missouri, and without Simmons, Texas will have a harder time keeping Trinidad Chambliss in the pocket. We think Texas wins a lower-scoring game than the total suggests. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas cannot lose a third game and stay in the playoff conversation. It would be 4-3 and 1-3 in the SEC with Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play, and ESPN already describes Texas as on the brink. A Texas win would give it a third win over a team in our top 11 and put it back in the debate with the other two-loss teams. For Ole Miss, a second loss would let the committee revisit its head-to-head loss to Florida, which ESPN points out could become the tiebreaker between two two-loss teams. A win would put Ole Miss at 6-1 and 4-1 in the league going into Georgia’s visit on November 7th.

That game also matters to the SEC race. Ole Miss is one of four teams with one league loss, and Texas is 1-2. A Texas win would leave three one-loss teams, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky, and would make Kentucky’s trip to Knoxville on November 7th a game for first place.

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The SEC is Eating its Own

While the playoff will determine the champion, which has been the domain of the Big Ten each of the previous three seasons, it is safe to say that the SEC is the top-to-bottom class of the sport right now. A whopping nine teams are currently ranked among the Top 30 of Bill Connelly’s SP+. Throw in that the conference went to a 9-game schedule this season and the outcome is obvious; they’re beating each other up. 

Let’s start with the Red River Reckoning [Rivalry]. It was certainly a rough afternoon for Arch Manning (two 4th Qtr interceptions, one returned for a TD). But to lose to an Oklahoma offense that averaged just 4.2 yards per play and was just 2-of-13 on 3rd downs took a team effort, including a blocked punt the Sooners returned for a TD. And while the Sooners offense didn’t do much, credit to QB John Mateer, who appeared to be on his way to the bench, for managing the game while completing passes of 13 and 20 yards to set up the game-winning FG as time expired. The Sooners still have little chance at making the playoff, but there are at least signs of life.

The SEC’s main course of Georgia at Alabama had a little of everything. Starting with a hurricane that passed by Tuscaloosa early in the day and forced ESPN’s College GameDay into a gymnasium. But the game went on as scheduled and was one of those old-fashioned SEC slugfests. Despite being without their top two running backs the Dawgs managed 206 yards rushing, while Gunnar Stockton was a very efficient 18/22, 249 yards (11.3 yards per attempt) as Georgia went 7/13 on 3rd down. Alabama moved the ball, but also struggled to get into scoring range due to mistakes and negative plays. That said, perhaps the biggest mistake of the game did not belong to either team but to the officials, who did not call what appeared to be an obvious defensive pass interference on Georgia DB KJ Bolden in the end zone late in the 4th Quarter. Had the call been made it would have put the Tide in FG range to tie and kept a potential go-ahead TD drive going. Instead Alabama took a sack on the next play and had to punt, and Georgia was able to run out the clock.

A Big Shift in the Big Ten?

UCLA continued its rise among the college football ranks by going to Oregon and leaving with an improbable 17-15 win. As the score suggests, this was not only a game dominated by defense, but was ugly for the offenses, and that’s probably an understatement. The game featured 10 turnovers, seven of them by Oregon. That’s not to say it was a banner day for the Bruins either, as they were penalized 9 times and were just 4-of-16 on third down. It was also not a good day for either quarterback who started this game. Bruins QB Nico Iamaleava threw 2 interceptions to no touchdowns, and appeared to suffer a lower leg injury in the 2nd Quarter that led to him not returning for the second half. His replacement, Ty Dieffenbach, was not asked to do much, and thanks to just enough production from RB Wayne Knight he didn’t have to. Dylan Raiola got the start for the Ducks for Dante Moore, who is still recovering from a concussion suffered during the game at USC. Raiola filled in masterfully for Moore that day. But this day was much, much different. Raiola was under pressure constantly and went just 6/19, 43 yards, 2 picks plus a fumble lost before being benched after 3 quarters for 3rd-string QB Brock Thomas. Thomas did reasonably well, leading the Ducks to a TD drive with 2:16 left, but Oregon could not convert the 2-point attempt, and that was the difference.

The unbeaten Bruins have all the look of the 2024 Indiana Hoosiers who went 11-1 and made the CFP, complete with their own ex-James Madison head coach. While their remaining schedule appears to set up well, they will have to manage without Iamaleava this weekend against 4-1 Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl. The Ducks meanwhile are facing the longest of odds to return to the CFP. Moore is still out this Saturday against a 5-1 Nebraska team that nearly knocked off Indiana last Saturday. And even if Oregon does get by the next several games, a Nov. 7 trip to Columbus looms, and it’s almost impossible to envision a playoff path for an Oregon team with 3 losses.

My Top 10

1. Georgia — Yes, they certainly benefitted from a controversial no-call late in the game at Alabama, but also showed me enough to prove they are legit and deserve to be atop the perch

2. Ohio State — They didn’t just survive a trip to Kinnick, they controlled the game against a team whose hallmark is dictating the style of play to their opponent. Another big test awaits Saturday

3. Notre Dame — The Irish will finally face playoff worthy competition Saturday

4. Alabama — Costly officiating error aside, the Tide can point to several plays-not-made of their own that cost them. Still, they proved they are a serious title contender

5. Miami — That close win at Wake Forest is aging better, but the ‘Canes can’t afford to get caught looking ahead to Nov. 7 in South Bend  

6. Indiana — After a couple of close calls against Northwestern and Nebraska, the nation’s longest winning streak is on the line in what may be the biggest home game in IU history

7. Texas — Steve Sarkisian makes a fair point; Arch’s lineage put expectations on his back that any college QB would struggle to meet. But he has to be much better than Saturday for the ‘Horns to have any shot

8. BYU — Saturday’s game against Notre Dame replaced the Irish’s traditional game against USC, and this is one time I don’t mind seeing a rivalry interrupted

9.  Ole Miss — Now that the aftertaste of that letdown at Florida is gone, time to get back to work with a better-than-I-thought Missouri team coming to Oxford

10. Texas Tech — They appear to have a pretty manageable path to Arlington for the Big 12 title game

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana — Noon ET, FOX

Line: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 50.5

The defending national champion, owner of a 22-game winning streak, is an underdog at home. Disrespectful? Maybe. But with Jeremiah Smith and the SP+ No. 1 offense coming to town, it shouldn’t be a surprise. This will be the first real look for many at the current Hoosiers team, which has had much turnover from the one that knocked off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game last season.

While Indiana’s defense just may be good enough to slow down Smith & Co., the Hoosier offense is a concern. The headline numbers look solid, but an under-the-hood view shows some of those numbers were padded against the likes of Howard and Western Kentucky, and against tougher opponents like Northwestern and Nebraska their ability to stay on schedule running the ball on early downs has led to middling results on 3rd Down. That won’t succeed against the Buckeyes. But as always under Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers won’t beat themselves — they have just one turnover all season and are 4th in FBS in fewest penalties accepted. OSU has its work cut out for it, and this should be a tight game, but defense travels well and the Buckeyes have an elite one.

Ohio State win/Indiana cover

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 LSU — Noon ET, ESPN

Line: LSU -15.5, O/U 57.5

There’s been a significant line shift, 3 points, towards LSU due to the questionable status of MSU quarterback Kamario Taylor, who left the game against Alabama in the 3rd Quarter with a lower leg injury. If Taylor can’t go, +15.5 may not be enough, as the Bulldogs just don’t have a defense they can lean on (98th in the country in EPA allowed per pass and give up 28.0 points per game — tied for 108th). Despite Sam Leavitt’s 8 interceptions thus far, he should have big numbers in this game. Even if Taylor plays, he may well be limited physically, so I’ll take LSU even laying over two TDs.

LSU win/cover

No. 6 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee — 3:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5

Fresh off its first loss of the season, the Tide head to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that’s won five of six. Hitting the road after an emotional loss, against a quality SEC opponent, is the kind of trap Alabama must avoid if it wants to stay in the playoff conversation.

The efficiency numbers favor Alabama’s offense heavily. The Crimson Tide are 16th in adjusted EPA per play and 4th in success rate, and have dropped 45 or more points on everyone but Georgia. The Vols’ offense is the mirror image — 121st in EPA per pass and 126th in pass play success rate, and have an unsettled quarterback situation — George MacIntyre replaced injured Faizon Brandon during the Texas loss, and it has yet to be determined who will start Saturday. The offense goes through RB DeSean Bishop, who has 678 rushing yards and ranks second nationally in EPA per rush. Tennessee’s best asset is a defense that is 32nd in adjusted EPA per play and 14th in EPA per pass.

Even with their defense, Tennessee will have to score in the high 20s to keep this close, and a team with the 121st-ranked passing offense and an injured starting quarterback, and a backup who has mostly been ineffective, will struggle to do that against a top-10 defense. If Bishop can’t carry the whole load, Alabama’s offense, which averages 44.2 points per game, only needs a few explosive plays against Tennessee’s secondary. Even with Tide WR Ryan Coleman-Williams out, I think they will get the big plays they need.

Alabama win/cover

No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss — 3:30pm ET, SECN

Line: Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5

I apologize, Missouri, I was unfamiliar with your game. I dissed on the Tigers pretty bad in previewing their game against Florida, and all they did was whack the Gators 45-17 and then stifled Texas A&M 27-6. I won’t make that mistake again. Or will I?

The Tigers’ offense is 14th in the nation in adjusted EPA per play and 19th in yards per play, compared with 44th and 36th for Ole Miss. Ole Miss’s defense is the clearest weakness in this matchup, ranking 91st in opponent success rate and 100th in opponent adjusted EPA per play. Missouri’s defense sits in the 90th percentile for EPA allowed and 94th percentile in success rate allowed.

Still, I’ve yet to see Missouri do it on the road in the SEC. And in what figures to be a pass-heavy, high-scoring game, and edge goes to the Heisman-hopeful QB (Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss). With all that said, right team, wrong number.

Ole Miss win/Missouri cover

No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU — 7:30pm ET, ABC

Line: Notre Dame -10.5, O/U 46.5

The Irish have played only one team within the SP+ Top 55 (#34 Wisconsin). But still, their adjusted metrics make them a decisive favorite. They lead the country in offensive adjusted EPA per play and they rank 2nd in points per drive and third in success rate, EPA per snap, and EPA per dropback. The defense is just as strong. It is sixth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and fourth in rush success rate allowed (33.8%).

The Cougars are obviously no slouch. Their offense has been efficient too, ranking in the Top 10 in offensive success rate at 50.9%, but it is without running back LJ Martin and face a defensive front that has been among the best in the country, a tall order for a BYU team that relies on the run. BYU’s defense is 29th in opponent success rate but has struggled to stop the run, ranking 77th in EPA per rush allowed, which is the weakness Notre Dame is best built to exploit.

LaVell Edwards Stadium will be electric, and the Irish have little experience dealing with adversity so far. This should really be a test for them. I like Notre Dame to win, but double-digits feels like a bit too much.

Notre Dame win/BYU cover

No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston — 7:30pm ET, FOX

Line: Houston -4.5, O/U 62.5

This one sets up as another high-scoring affair. The history backs that up, since the over has hit in five straight meetings between these teams. Houston is 7th in the country in offensive success rate but 58th in opponent success rate, while Oklahoma State is 22nd in success rate but 46th in opponent success rate. Oklahoma State arrives with a four-game winning streak that includes a Week 2 upset of Oregon, but its minus-3 turnover margin is a concern.

Houston, for its part, is coming off a 35-16 win at Kansas State. Their lone loss was at Texas Tech by just two points, but because of that result this feels like an elimination game for the Cougars to make the Big 12 title game and stay in the CFP conversation. That turnover issue for the Cowboys sticks with me as a possible difference maker in a game that could come down to who has the ball last.

Houston win/Oklahoma State cover

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The kind of win that keeps you up at night afterwards grinning from ear to ear as you imagine what the Super Bowl parade will look like this time.

The Baltimore Ravens’ 30-23 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night was one of those victories.

For much of the night, Baltimore looked like a team that was going to let an opportunity slip away. Lamar Jackson was unavailable. The offense struggled to find its rhythm for stretches. Atlanta had the game in its hands late in the fourth quarter.

And then the Ravens did what good teams must do.

They found a way.

Tyler Huntley led a late touchdown drive to get Baltimore back into the game, Derrick Henry powered in the two-point conversion to tie it, and Huntley finished the job in overtime with a rushing touchdown capping an almost eight-minute drive. Kyle Hamilton then sealed the victory with an interception.

For a fan base that has been used to 4th Quarter meltdowns over the past few seasons, it’s been a welcome change so far to see this team win games in exciting fashion. And now the Ravens sit atop the division at 4-1 in a crowded AFC North with two old foes scheduled in consecutive weeks in Cleveland and Cincinnati.

But before we start talking about how far this team can go, let’s take a closer look at what Sunday night told us.

• Snoop Huntley – Nobody wants to see Lamar Jackson on the sideline. He’s the engine that makes this offense go, and any time he’s unavailable, Baltimore loses something that can’t simply be replaced by any other player.

But Huntley deserves a lot of credit for what he did last Sunday.

He didn’t panic when the Ravens were trailing late. He didn’t try to become something he isn’t. Instead, he kept the offense moving, made the throws when they were there and delivered when Baltimore absolutely needed him to. His touchdown toss to Devontez Walker in the final minute of regulation gave the Ravens a chance to tie the game. His touchdown run in overtime put Baltimore ahead for good.

His experience and calm demeanor under center helped propel the Ravens to another victory and helped remind many that he is the next best option if Lamar isn’t available. My timeline on Sunday night was littered with so many that were calling for rookie Joe Fagnano to get the call. Sure, he had a nice pre-season against backups, but I doubt he would have been ready for a Prime-Time game on the road.

Still, let’s keep things in perspective. The Ravens are a different team when Jackson is healthy. His ability to extend plays, threaten defenses with his legs and create explosive opportunities changes the entire equation. Huntley is limited in some ways but if the game plan leans into his strengths he is a more than capable backup.

• The King Sets the Tone – Derrick Henry is a special player. When so many of his age start to decline at the running back position he continues to thrive.

When Baltimore needs to settle things down, establish physicality or take control of a game, handing him the football is always a good idea. Especially with Lamar on the sidelines, the offense rightfully ran through him and the run game. Justice Hill also was featured at times as well and he’s also a player that can play a role on third down and out of the backfield to provide a different look or just give him a break.

What I appreciate most about Henry is that his impact isn’t limited to his statistics. He affects how a defense approaches the game. Defenders have to account for him, which can create opportunities for Jackson, Huntley and the passing game and it’s always fun to watch defensive backs try to stop him in the fourth quarter and in this case Overtime. They want no parts of him and who could blame them.

I also must mention Offensive Coordinator Declan Doyle here as well. As the young OC continues to develop as a play caller I thought he had a fantastic game plan and was creative with getting his best players the ball. He used misdirection and put Huntley in positions to succeed. Over a long season it’s important to establish your identity and Baltimore has often been about being able to run the ball and impose your will on a defense. It was great to see that Sunday night.

• The Defense Did Just Enough – Head Coach Jesse Minter’s tagline this season has been “Playing our best, when our best is needed” and his defense has certainly lived up to that on Sunday.

Tavious Robinson’s bone crushing hit on starting quarterback Michael Penix knocked him from the game, while Kyle Hamilton sealed the game with an interception from backup Tua Tagovailoa.

While it was exciting to end the game with a turnover, this unit is still looking to find consistency in its play. They are still looking to find it’s pass rush and having Trey Hendrickson sideline for a second consecutive week didn’t help. They are giving up almost 24 points a game, while allowing a third down conversion rate of 41%.

There have been growing pains to be sure, but this team needs to get more sacks, and turnovers as we move forward.

This week the Ravens travel to Cleveland, a venue where they’ve been 2-3 over the past five years. Divisional games always have a different feeling, and it will be interesting to see how the Browns react coming off a loss to the Jets in a crowded AFC North race.

Here’s What I’m Watching:

1) Lamar Jackson’s Status –The biggest storyline is always his availability. If he isn’t ready though it doesn’t feel as dire coming off Huntley’s performance in Atlanta. Still, I think Lamar won’t return until the Cincinnati game back at home.

2) Ravens Defense Must Step Up – The Browns are coming off an uninspired loss to the Jets, a game where they surrendered eight sacks. Baltimore only has ten in five games. A returning Trey Hendrickson should help but I’m also watching Mike Green who seems to be starting to show signs of a real breakout.

3) Ravens Secondary – Speaking of players that are starting to shine, Malaki Starks had his best game as a professional, with ten tackles and a nose for the football. He needs to continue his upward trend as the Ravens must contend with young receivers Harold Fannin and Denzel Boston, who have six touchdowns combined.

The post Ravens Finding Ways to Win – Divisional Test Ahead in Cleveland appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

The 49ers are 5-0 after winning in Seattle, and no NFC East team won a game. Washington and the Giants tied 27-27 when the Commanders ran out the clock in field-goal range. The Eagles lost in London on a 57-yard kick after a kickoff Nick Sirianni said he should not have allowed. Dallas lost at home to a one-win team quarterbacked by an undrafted rookie.

The Vikings are also 5-0, and still seventh in DVOA. The Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are 0-5.

Two changes start this week. The line lists are now weekly and judged against what each opponent usually allows. The win totals now republish every week.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 5 Recap

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16 (Thursday)

Box score · Line: Cowboys -8.5, 47.5 · Our pick: Cowboys

Expected: Jalon Daniels’ second start, on a short week, against DVOA’s last-ranked defense, with Tyler Smith eligible to return.

What decided it: The matchup we named, but on the ground. Tampa Bay ran 39 times for 241 yards, 165 of them from Bucky Irving, whose 72-yard run on the first play of the second half set up the go-ahead touchdown. Daniels went 19 of 25 for 189 yards with no turnovers. Dallas gave the ball away three times: two Dak Prescott interceptions and a KaVontae Turpin fumble on a kickoff. Joey Porter Jr. was a late scratch.

Jaguars 19, Eagles 17 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -6.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks against a defense third in DVOA with a nine-game interception streak, with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson’s statuses to settle.

What decided it: A kickoff. Jake Elliott put Philadelphia ahead 17-16 from 48 yards with eight seconds left. The Eagles kicked a returnable ball, Ameer Abdullah brought it back 53 yards with a second left, and Cam Little made a 57-yarder as time expired. Sirianni said afterward that the decision cost his team the game.

Barkley and Smith were out, Johnson had retired, center Cam Jurgens had been traded and Drew Kendall was hurt. The Eagles ran 18 times for 22 yards. Jacksonville kept them close by going 0 for 3 in the red zone, missing an extra point with a backup long snapper and taking 13 penalties for 100 yards. The interception streak ended at nine games.

Bengals 31, Dolphins 24

Box score · Line: Bengals -7, 42.5 · Our pick: Bengals

Expected: Whether Ja’Marr Chase cleared the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins was available, and Miami’s pass rush after its first four sacks.

What decided it: Chase cleared and caught six passes for 77 yards, including a one-handed 45-yard touchdown. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes, and Jordan Battle intercepted Malik Willis on back-to-back second-quarter drives. Miami ran 34 times for 217 yards, but it did not sack Burrow.

Packers 31, Bears 7

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 45.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense without Edgerrin Cooper, and whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real.

What decided it: The protection was real, and the run game wasn’t there. Without Kyle Monangai, Chicago ran 24 times for 81 yards. Jordan Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards, with Christian Watson catching 143 yards and two touchdowns and Matthew Golden adding 123. The Bears turned the ball over five times, including on four straight second-half possessions.

Jets 17, Browns 12

Box score · Line: Jets -2.5, 39.5 · Our pick: Browns

Expected: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays a week earlier, and Mason Graham’s knee.

What decided it: The pressure, from the other side. The Jets sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, three by rookie David Bailey, and Graham was inactive. With Cleveland up 12-10, a high snap went through punter Corey Bojorquez’s hands in the rain. Braelon Allen scored from 22 yards three plays later, and Will McDonald’s strip-sack on fourth down ended it.

Texans 26, Titans 3

Box score · Line: Texans -6.5, 38.5 · Our pick: Texans

Expected: Houston’s secondary after two blown two-score leads, and Tennessee’s three straight close losses.

What decided it: Neither; it was never close. In DeMeco Ryans’ first game back calling the defense, Houston held Tennessee to 187 yards. Will Anderson Jr. had three of the four sacks, and two early turnovers became field goals. C.J. Stroud threw for 261 yards and a touchdown and ran for another.

Steelers 34, Colts 22

Box score · Line: Steelers -2.5, 44.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, and Pittsburgh’s rest against the Colts’ trip back from London.

What decided it: Jaylen Warren. Jones did not turn the ball over, but Warren had 188 total yards, including an 80-yard catch-and-run and a 50-yard touchdown run. Harmon and Dean were both out, and the Colts still ran 24 times for 66 yards. Spencer Shrader kicked five field goals as Indianapolis stalled in Pittsburgh territory.

Patriots 45, Raiders 17

Box score · Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: The top pass-blocking line against the seventh-ranked pass rush, the Raiders’ run game with Ashton Jeanty’s ankle, and an early kickoff in the east.

What decided it: New England’s protection, not Las Vegas’. Drake Maye was sacked once and went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and ran for a fifth. The Patriots gained 536 yards. The Raiders ran 18 times for 38 yards, and Fernando Mendoza made his debut in the fourth quarter.

Vikings 23, Saints 13

Box score · Line: Vikings -1.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Vikings

Expected: DVOA’s 31st offense against its 31st defense, Justin Jefferson’s ankle, and the Saints’ run defense.

What decided it: Minnesota’s defense, which held New Orleans to 142 yards. Jefferson returned and caught a 15-yard touchdown after the Saints fumbled the second-half kickoff. The Vikings ran 36 times for 153 yards, and Will Reichard made all three of his field goals from 40 yards or more.

Giants 27, Commanders 27 (OT)

Box score · Line: Commanders -3.5, 43.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: Washington’s quarterback, with Jayden Daniels’ return unconfirmed, Marcus Mariota hurt and Athan Kaliakmanis next.

What decided it: Nothing did, though both teams had it won. Daniels returned in an elbow brace, ran for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns, and put Washington up 27-13 in the fourth quarter. Jameis Winston answered with two 17-yard touchdown passes, the second to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left. In overtime Cam Skattebo fumbled in field-goal range. Daniels then went down at the Giants’ 24 with 12 seconds left and no timeouts, and the clock ran out before Washington could spike it. Dominic Zvada made two of five field goals for New York.

Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Box score · Line: Broncos -3.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Broncos

Expected: A Chargers line 30th in pass block, possibly without Joe Alt, against Denver’s front, and Denver’s injured cornerbacks.

What decided it: The matchup we named. Alt and Rashawn Slater were out, four rookies started on the line, and Justin Herbert was sacked five times. Jim Harbaugh’s failed fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter led to the tying touchdown. Zach Allen’s strip-sack then set up Wil Lutz’s go-ahead field goal. Denver won without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, in Sean Payton’s first game back calling plays.

Lions 45, Cardinals 21

Box score · Line: Lions -4.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Lions

Expected: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett after three interceptions.

What decided it: Detroit’s defense, which held an opponent under 30 points for the first time this season. After Arizona’s opening touchdown the Lions had five sacks and held the Cardinals to 18 carries for 56 yards. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. was inactive ahead of his trade to Houston.

49ers 32, Seahawks 29

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 47.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: The line that had not allowed a sack against the pass rush that is first in win rate.

What decided it: San Francisco’s defense, more than its line. The streak ended, with Brock Purdy sacked three times. But the 49ers sacked Sam Darnold five times without Nick Bosa. Renardo Green intercepted him twice, and Gracen Halton returned a fumble for a touchdown at the end of the first half. Purdy led two fourth-quarter scoring drives, Mike Evans caught 113 yards, and Eddy Pineiro won it from 43 yards with 1:56 left.

Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)

Box score · Line: Falcons -3, 43.5 · Our pick: Falcons

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Baltimore’s fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and Baltimore won by running the ball. Behind Tyler Huntley, the Ravens ran 35 times for 208 yards against the league’s best run defense, with Derrick Henry gaining 102 and Justice Hill 73 on four carries. Down 23-15 with 2:31 left, Huntley drove them to a touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Henry ran in the two-point try. Huntley scored from the 1 in overtime, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, in for the injured Michael Penix Jr.

Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT, Monday)

Box score · Line: Rams -2.5, 54.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Two top-five quarterbacks who had been loose with the ball, Buffalo’s 26th-ranked defense without Ed Oliver, and Aaron Donald’s possible return.

What decided it: Special teams. Donald played and recovered James Cook’s fumble early in overtime, but Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis’ field goal. Josh Allen then scrambled for 19 and 13 yards, and Tyler Bass won it from 45 with 1:55 left. Allen ran for 121 of his 331 total yards, and Buffalo rushed for 234. Sean McVay said the kicking units cost the Rams the game.

Power Rankings

The Jaguars move ahead of the Seahawks, as we said they might after San Francisco at Seattle and the London game. From this week our offensive and defensive line rankings are a factor here: they move the Lions, Falcons and Texans up and the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys down. The biggest moves are the Packers (up 8), Patriots and Steelers (up 7) and Raiders (down 8).

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 5. Outside rankings: ESPN, Nate Davis, USA Today and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports. USA Today stands in for NFL.com, whose rankings were not up at build time.

1. 49ers (1). Five sacks, a defensive touchdown and two interceptions won in Seattle without Nick Bosa. DVOA has them first by 22 points.
2. Chiefs (2). Bye. The winless Chargers come to Kansas City; the offensive line is third in our rankings, the defensive line 28th.
3. Jaguars (4). Up one, past Seattle, as flagged last week. DVOA has had them second for two weeks, though London was sloppy: 0 for 3 in the red zone and 13 penalties.
4. Bills (5). Won a shootout with the Rams in overtime without DJ Moore or Ed Oliver. Josh Allen ran for 121 yards, behind our top-ranked offensive line.
5. Seahawks (3). Down two after losing at home to the 49ers, with two Sam Darnold interceptions and more running-back fumbles. Still our top defensive line.
6. Ravens (6). Held. Won in Atlanta with Tyler Huntley and a 208-yard run game, and lead the AFC North alone.
7. Vikings (9). Up two at 5-0. The defense allows the fewest points in the league; DVOA still has them only seventh.
8. Rams (7). Down one. A 2-3 team that DVOA has 10th, beaten in overtime by its kicking game: Harrison Mevis has missed three field goals.
9. Patriots (16). Up seven. Drake Maye has eight touchdowns and two turnovers in two weeks, after one touchdown and seven turnovers in his first three games (CBS Sports).
10. Lions (14). Up four. Both lines rank in our top 10, the defense held an opponent under 30 for the first time, and Jared Goff has 13 touchdowns and no turnovers (USA Today).
11. Broncos (10). Down one, only because Detroit passes them. Five sacks and three takeaways won in Los Angeles.
12. Bengals (13). Up one. Fifth in DVOA, but they let Miami run for 217 yards before the bye.
13. Bears (8). Down five after five turnovers in Green Bay. Caleb Williams is back at practice.
14. Steelers (21). Up seven. Jaylen Warren has carried the offense since Rico Dowdle’s injury, behind a line that entered our top 8.
15. Falcons (18). Up three. Lost in overtime, but both lines rank in our top 10. Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs decide the next few weeks.
16. Panthers (15). Down one. Ninth in DVOA and atop the NFC South, but their defensive line ranks 30th.
17. Packers (25). Up eight. Jordan Love threw for 367 yards, but both lines rank in the bottom six, and Javon Hargrave’s Achilles is the second season-ending injury in the front seven in two weeks.
18. Cowboys (12). Down six after losing at home to Tampa Bay. Their defensive line ranks last, and the defense has five sacks and no interceptions this season.
19. Raiders (11). Down eight. Two straight losses since a 3-0 start, and 25th in DVOA.
20. Texans (23). Up three. Eleventh in DVOA at 1-4, with our third-ranked defensive line, and they added Marvin Harrison Jr.
21. Giants (20). Down one. They lead the NFC East at 3-1-1, but DVOA has them 27th.
22. Eagles (17). Down five after three straight losses. Lane Johnson retired and Cam Jurgens was traded in the same week.
23. Browns (19). Down four. Eight sacks allowed to the Jets, and they have been outscored over a 3-2 start.
24. Colts (22). Down two. They lead the league in field-goal attempts because drives stall.
25. Buccaneers (29). Up four. Jalon Daniels’ first win, and 12th in DVOA.
26. Jets (26). Held. Eight sacks, three by rookie David Bailey.
27. Saints (24). Down three after a third straight home loss and 142 total yards.
28. Commanders (27). Down one. A tie that felt like a loss.
29. Cardinals (28). Down one. They have allowed 30 or more in four straight games and traded Harrison.
30. Chargers (30). Held. Thirteen turnovers, most in the league, and four rookies on the line.
31. Titans (31). Held. Three points and 187 yards against Houston.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Willis threw two interceptions to a safety who said he had read his tell.

Offensive Lines

The Bills move to No. 1, the Chiefs and Bears climb, the Steelers enter, and the Raiders drop out. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 5, rank in parentheses. Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: the best run game against expectation in the league, and second in both win rates, against a schedule of pass rushes tougher than average. Spencer Brown, 91% in pass block win rate, hurt his back Monday.
• 49ers: three sacks allowed all season, all of them in Seattle. The run game is above average rather than dominant, which is the gap to Buffalo.
• Chiefs: third in run block win rate and 5.5 yards a carry, with four games played.
• Bears: fourth in pass block win rate against one of the tougher pass-rush schedules. The four sacks at Green Bay came with backup quarterbacks.
• Steelers: in on balance, eighth and ninth in the win rates, after allowing five sacks in Cleveland in Week 4.
• Lions: third in pass block, but 22nd in run block and slightly below expectation on the ground.
• Out: Raiders. First in pass block win rate, but 3.0 yards a carry is a full yard below what their opponents allow, against the easiest pass rushes anyone has faced.
• First out: Patriots (seventh on the numbers; left tackle Will Campbell’s knee injury keeps them out), Falcons, Raiders.
• Charting against results: Ravens (13th; 208 rushing yards in Atlanta, but 7.4% sack rate) and Packers (last in pass block win rate, yet a sack rate better than their opponents allow).
• Watch in Week 6: Brown’s back at Las Vegas; Campbell’s status against the Jets’ eight-sack front; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center for Baltimore.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Defensive Lines

The Texans, Lions and Chargers enter, and the Rams, Ravens and Patriots drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s public listing has total DVOA only this week, so defensive DVOA is held for next week.

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better).

• Texans: the biggest sack rate above expectation in the league, and the second-best run defense against expectation. Will Anderson Jr. had three sacks in Tennessee. Their win rates lag the results.
• Lions: third in pass rush win rate, and sacking quarterbacks well above what their lines allow. Detroit’s poor scoring defense has been the secondary, not the front.
• Falcons: fourth and seventh in the win rates, though the sacks lag. Jalon Walker (ACL) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension) are out, and Za’Darius Smith was in the concussion protocol.
• Chargers: first in run stop win rate and above expectation on sacks, on an 0-5 team. Bud Dupree left Week 5 with a neck injury.
• 49ers: down two. Even after five sacks in Seattle, their season sack rate is only about what their opponents’ lines usually allow. Nick Bosa’s calf is the injury to watch.
• Broncos: a sack rate two points above expectation, but run defense slightly below; held at eighth.
• Out: Rams. Twelfth on the numbers. Myles Garrett is on injured reserve and not expected to start practicing this week.
• Out: Ravens. Tenth, and exactly at expectation on sacks without Trey Hendrickson.
• Out: Patriots. Thirteenth, 25th in run stop win rate.
• First out: Browns (seventh on the numbers, but Mason Graham is week to week and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive), Jaguars (the best run defense in yards per carry, 31st in run stop win rate), Jets.
• Giants: 22nd on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.
• Scheme caveat: Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Win Totals

The Patriots move into the AFC field and the Raiders drop out of it; Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 78 wins and that tie banked through Week 5. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Bengals, Patriots; first out, Steelers.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Seahawks, then two of the Lions, Bears and Rams; first out, the third of those.
• Ties we could not project: Buffalo and Jacksonville; the three AFC wild cards; the Lions, Bears and Rams.

What moved:

• Up: Buccaneers +2 (first win, 12th in DVOA, Baker Mayfield due back); Vikings, Patriots, Lions, Packers, Steelers and Texans +1.
• Down: Raiders -2 (two straight losses, 25th in DVOA); Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, Browns, Rams, Falcons and Saints -1.
• Eagles 8-9: the line lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens in one week, and the offense has the most three-and-outs in the league (ESPN).
• Falcons 8-9: depends on Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; FTN projects 8.1 wins.
• For comparison, FTN’s simulation gives Dallas a 37.2% chance at the NFC East and Carolina 46.1% in the South (FTN playoff odds).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 6:

• Cowboys 9-8 at Green Bay (8-9), with the Giants hosting the Saints and the Eagles hosting Carolina.
• Bears 10-7 at Atlanta (8-9), with Caleb Williams and Penix both uncertain.
• Seahawks 11-6 at Denver (10-7) on a short week.
• Patriots 10-7 against the Jets, and Raiders 8-9 against Buffalo.
• Texans 7-10 against the Jaguars (12-5) in London.

Week 6 Preview

The line and the model split on three games, all with a road team favored by ESPN and the home team by 1.5 points; we took the line twice (Giants, Packers) and the model once (Panthers). The Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings and Lions are on bye.

Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday)

Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Seahawks 52.1%

Key to the Game: Both teams played Sunday. Seattle’s backfield has lost two more fumbles and won’t have Zach Charbonnet. Denver’s offense has needed its defense to set up short fields, and the Broncos are still without Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss.

Our Pick: Seahawks. The better defense on a short week, though Sam Darnold’s interceptions make this close.

Texans vs. Jaguars (London)

Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · ESPN: Jaguars 58.8%

Key to the Game: Jacksonville’s red zone after going 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against a Houston defense with DeMeco Ryans calling it again. Left tackle Anton Harrison was carted off in London. Marvin Harrison Jr. could debut for Houston, and David Montgomery hurt his groin.

Our Pick: Jaguars.

Bears at Falcons

Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · ESPN: Bears 60.1%

Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks: Caleb Williams is back at practice from his hamstring, and Michael Penix Jr. is hurt in his ribs. Atlanta’s run defense was the league’s best until Baltimore ran for 208 yards.

Our Pick: Bears. The pick assumes Williams plays and Penix doesn’t; reverse either and this flips.

Ravens at Browns

Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · ESPN: Ravens 65.8%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against a Cleveland front with Jared Verse and possibly Mason Graham. The Browns allowed eight sacks in New York and may be without right tackle Tytus Howard and receiver KC Concepcion.

Our Pick: Ravens.

Titans at Colts

Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · ESPN: Colts 72%

Key to the Game: A Tennessee offense averaging 10.4 points against an Indianapolis offense that settles for field goals. The Colts lead the league in field-goal attempts.

Our Pick: Colts.

Jets at Patriots

Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · ESPN: Patriots 78.9%

Key to the Game: David Bailey and an eight-sack Jets front against a New England line that may be without left tackle Will Campbell. A.J. Brown could return for the Patriots, whose cornerback room is down to a few healthy players.

Our Pick: Patriots.

Saints at Giants

Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · ESPN: Saints 54.1%

Key to the Game: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 yards a carry, 30th in the league, against a Saints offense held to 142 yards. New York’s kicking cost it a win in Washington, and Tyler Shough is playing with a hurt non-throwing hand.

Our Pick: Giants. The line over the model: the Saints have lost three straight and rank 30th in DVOA.

Panthers at Eagles

Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Panthers 50.5%

Key to the Game: Carolina’s top-ranked passing offense against an Eagles defense that has worn down in fourth quarters, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs in the league. The Panthers start two backup cornerbacks, but Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton are due back from the bye.

Our Pick: Panthers. The model over the line: Philadelphia has lost three straight and two starting linemen in a week.

Steelers at Buccaneers

Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · ESPN: Steelers 59.4%

Key to the Game: Bucky Irving and a Tampa Bay run game that just gained 241 yards, against Pittsburgh’s run defense. Baker Mayfield is not expected back until Week 7 at the earliest.

Our Pick: Steelers.

Cardinals at Rams

Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Rams 87.1%

Key to the Game: Arizona allows a league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass attempt. The Rams’ kicking game is the one thing that has cost them close games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chargers at Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 74.3%

Key to the Game: A Kansas City pass rush that pressures without finishing, against a Chargers line of four rookies. Justin Herbert has turned the ball over in five straight games.

Our Pick: Chiefs.

Bills at Raiders

Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · ESPN: Bills 69.7%

Key to the Game: A Raiders run game that gained 38 yards in New England, against a Buffalo defense thin at cornerback. Right tackle Spencer Brown hurt his back Monday.

Our Pick: Bills.

Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night)

Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 52.1%

Key to the Game: Jordan Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run. Micah Parsons won’t play, and CeeDee Lamb left Thursday with a quadriceps injury.

Our Pick: Packers. The line over the model: Dallas’ defense has given us no reason to trust it on the road.

Commanders at 49ers (Monday)

Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 82.6%

Key to the Game: Jayden Daniels’ scrambling against a 49ers defense that just sacked Sam Darnold five times, and a Washington defense that has allowed 20 or more second-half points in four straight games. Deebo Samuel hurt his hamstring in Seattle.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

Four head coaches blamed themselves. Nick Sirianni (the London kickoff), Jim Harbaugh (the fourth-and-1), Sean McVay (a conservative third-down call before the blocked field goal) and Dan Quinn (the overtime clock) all took the loss, or the tie, on themselves. Three of the four games were decided by three points or fewer.

Special teams decided four games. A 53-yard kickoff return and a 57-yard field goal in London, a fumbled punt snap in New Jersey, a blocked field goal in Los Angeles, and a 2-of-5 kicking day in Washington. Green Bay’s Trey Smack also missed two field goals and an extra point in a 24-point win.

Two head coaches took back the play calls, and both won. Sean Payton took Denver’s offense back from Davis Webb, and DeMeco Ryans took Houston’s defense back from Matt Burke. The Texans held Tennessee to 187 yards. Denver’s offense looked much as it had under Webb (Ringer Staff), and Seattle arrives Thursday.

The post 2026 NFL: Previewing Week 6 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

For 18 years, we heard plenty of John Harbaugh catch phrases and cliches. When the Ravens decided to move on from Harbaugh, they brought in a disciple of both Harbaugh brothers in Jesse Minter. In Harbaugh-esque fashion, Coach Minter imported a new catch phrase into the Ravens locker room:

Be at your best when best is needed.

As we reflect back on the first 5 weeks of the 2026 season, it’s difficult to argue with a 4-1 record and 1st place in the AFC North. Along the way, the Ravens have dealt with injuries to Zay Flowers, Trey Hendrickson and Lamar Jackson. They’ve also had to manage a rash of injuries along the offensive line that has forced 1st round pick Vega Ioane out of position, sliding him to center. Furthermore, GM Eric DeCosta had to go to the trade market early and swing a deal for Eagles center Cam Jurgens.

The biggest factor in the hiring of Jesse Minter was to restore the legacy of the Ravens defense, which has suffered the last 2 years under former DC Zach Orr and has blown the most double digit leads in the league over the last 8 years.

Last night’s 3rd down defense certainly left quite a bit to be desired. The Falcons went 9 for 17 on 3rd down conversions, including 4 that were double digit yards to go. To Minter’s credit, he did take responsibility for the poor calls on 3rd down that contributed to the Falcons extending drives. Last night especially, it was clear that Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr was pretty flustered when the Ravens brought any kind of pressure and Minter still leaned on a 4 man rush in many 3rd down scenarios. At the end of regulation, Minter called a 3 man rush and fortunately for the Ravens, edge rusher Mike Green absolutely dominated left tackle Jake Matthews and forced Penix into a bad throw.

I would like to see Minter adjust quicker to the flow of the game. Hopefully, the double duty of play calling and head coaching isn’t too much for the rookie coach.

On the flip side, the Ravens kept all world running Bijan Robinson in check for most of the night. While Robinson did average a little over 5 yards per carry overall, the majority of his 86 rushing yards came on 2 carries (where he gained 58 yards). To Minter and Weaver’s credit, they employed a more traditional 7 man front (4 down linemen, 3 linebackers) on several occasions, which contributed to a rather pedestrian evening by Robinson’s standards.

Also worth noting, while the defense did allow the Falcons to move into the redzone on 3 drives, they did deny Atlanta the end zone on 2 of those 3 occasions.

While the defensive renaissance hasn’t been entirely evident to this point, there have been moments.

In another example of being at your best when your best is needed, hats off to OC Declan Doyle for putting together an outstanding gameplan on Sunday night. Knowing that his backup quarterback, Tyler Huntley, does not have the arm talent or vision that former MVP Lamar Jackson has, he seemingly put his coaching ego aside and set Huntley up to succeed. First, he utilized presnap motion and misdirection to create space for Derrick Henry to get downhill in the running game. Next, he did some tendency breaking personnel groupings and formations; particularly, the 3rd and 1, fullback dive to Justice Hill that went for 43 yards.

Also, the utilization of Zay Flowers is fun to watch. The opposing defense can never know exactly where Flowers will line up. Even on a night where the diminutive wide receiver didn’t light up the stat sheet, he can still impact the game.

While the Ravens weren’t able to finish off drives in the 1st half (no thanks to some drops), there was enough success in the running game that allowed Tyler Huntley to thrive in the passing game in the 4th quarter and overtime.

Everyone knows that Huntley will not push the football down the field and that runs counter to how Doyle wants to attack opposing defenses. Instead, Huntley was smart with the football and Doyle created safe throws and screens for the majority of the evening. Despite dealing with various pressures and stunts from the Falcons defensive front, the makeshift offensive line acquitted itself well, especially in crunch time.

We all know the NFL is a week to week league and momentum is only as good as your next matchup and the health of your roster. However, in the course of any season there can be character building wins and Sunday night certainly looked like one of those wins for the “new” Baltimore Ravens.

I would be remiss if I failed to mention that there’s work to be done, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, on the road in Atlanta, the Baltimore Ravens embodied the slogan of their new head coach. Offense, defense and special teams were certainly at their best when their best was needed

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