The first CFP Rankings are out, and now we know what the people who truly matter think about what we saw in the first two months of the season. Let’s go!
Overreaction: Stetson Bennett is just as likely to lead Georgia to a national championship as JT Daniels, and should remain the starter even if Daniels is cleared to play.
First, all due respect to Stetson Bennett. A former walk-on who worked and bided his time, Bennett has kept the best team in the country on a roll while the presumed starter has dealt with a lat injury. The fans see Georgia rolling up huge margins of victory against teams like Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas and Florida with Bennett and figure, “why fix what ain’t broke?”
For Georgia’s sake, they better hope Kirby Smart knows better. For all he’s done, Bennett is not a better QB than Daniels. And in a season where anything less than a national championship will come as a huge disappointment, Georgia will absolutely need Daniels in order to win when it inevitably faces Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and quite possibly again in the CFP.
It’s not that Bennett hasn’t performed well. He would be the SEC’s official leader in passing efficiency if not for one problem….he hasn’t had the minimum number of passing attempts, despite having played 7 games, starting 4 of them. Now obviously part of that is because he’s so often playing with big leads, and so Georgia doesn’t need him to throw. But it cannot just be assumed that if he were forced to throw more the results would be just as good.
Consider this statistic. The most adverse passing situations are on 3rd Down. This season Bennett has completed 14-of-24 passes for 99 yards and 4 conversions on 3rd Downs. By any standard, that’s not so great. Meanwhile, Daniels has completed 16-of-18 3rd-down throws for 152 yards and 11 conversions. Who would you trust more when you have to pass it?
Make no mistake, when it comes time to play Alabama, the Bulldogs will need to throw the ball. The Tide are on another level offensively than any opponent Georgia has faced. As great as their defense is, they cannot rely on simply being able to shut Alabama down, and thus minimize their passing situations on offense. Furthermore, while Alabama’s defense overall is solid, they are much better at stopping the run (-0.087 EPA/23rd in FBS) than the pass (0.133 EPA/61st in FBS). Georgia must be able to effectively exploit Alabama’s weakest link.
Maybe Smart is taking a….smart approach (sorry) in slow-playing Daniels’ return. He was slated to get some playing time against Florida, but never saw the field. Maybe Smart didn’t want to risk aggravating Daniels’ injury in a game Georgia had sewn up by halftime. OK. But Daniels is going to need playing time before the postseason. Unless he’s actually not healthy enough to do so, which would be contrary to what Smart told us before the Florida game, he needs to get out there. Now. If not, this could end up being one of the most second-guessed coaching decisions in the past decade of college football.
Recalibration: Despite the recent loss, Jim Harbaugh is not really on the hot seat at Michigan. Yet.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Jim Harbaugh’s team just suffered a loss to a rival in a hard-fought, competitive game. It’s largely been the theme of his seven season tenure at Michigan. He has also recruited very well, had three double-digit win seasons (and is well-positioned for a fourth), and won over 70% of his games.
That’s not what Harbaugh was hired for. He was hired to get the Wolverines over the top; to win Big Ten championships and get in the College Football Playoff. What may also be stoking the fire under his seat, at least in the eyes of his detractors, is the 4-year extension he signed last winter. While it paid him more money to coach, it also made a possible buyout much more palatable for the school.
Michigan needs to maintain some perspective from the not-too-distant past here. Don’t forget, it wasn’t long ago, under Brady Hoke, the Wolverines were posting losses to the likes of Maryland and Rutgers. They have come nowhere near those depths under Harbaugh. Yes, 2020 wasn’t pretty, but any outlier results that came out of the COVID season ought to be dismissed without question.
They are on the doorstep of being a great team. Maybe they take that next step by finishing in big games, maybe they don’t. If they run the table, including a win against Ohio State, then folks in Ann Arbor will be too drunk from partying to remember a 4-point loss to Michigan State. Even if they don’t beat Ohio State, but finish 10-2, it’s still not the time to pull the plug on Harbaugh. If we’re having this same discussion towards the end of his current contract, then it’s time to talk about moving on. But for now, be glad that you are on the doorstep of joining the elite teams, Michigan; and stick by your guy in hopes he gets in there, because the path back to the outhouse is a short one if you replace him with the wrong coach.
Odds and Ends
So, Playoff Rankings thoughts:
The Playoff committee obviously uses separate criteria when compiling their rankings than the polls do, so that’s why we always tend to be surprised upon that first release.
For me, Oregon (higher than expected) and Oklahoma (lower than expected) were the big surprises. But the reasoning makes sense. Despite consistently playing down to the level of their opponents in conference play, the Ducks’ win at Ohio State in Week 2 still carries a lot of weight. They may be getting a bit of a break due to some injuries suffered too. Oklahoma has a similar problem to Oregon, struggles against bad teams; but their lack of any wins against a team currently in the CFP rankings is the difference.
Cincinnati at #6 probably got all the publicity. Call it Power Five Privilege, but outside of the Notre Dame win there’s not much to like on their resume. Still, they currently hold the highest CFP ranking any G5 team has ever held in the Playoff era, so I don’t think they are being disrespected. I also think the door is still open for them to move into the Top 4, but as I’ve stated here before, they will need help; but the way this season has gone, that help is by no means out of the question.
Further hurting Cincinnati is that neither Houston nor SMU cracked the CFP rankings, despite both appearing in the AP and Coaches polls. That could have helped the Bearcats strength of schedule by the end of the season.
Back to Oregon and Oklahoma. The Ducks remaining schedule is not horrible, but relatively weak, and they probably won’t face a single ranked team the rest of the way, even in the Pac-12 title game. They could be primed for a drop even if they keep winning. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has a bye, followed by #12 Baylor, Iowa State, and #11 Oklahoma State. Then, likely, the Big 12 Championship against a ranked opponent. Win and they should do some leap-frogging.
The takeaway? Polls and prognosticators, including myself, might have a bit of a tendency to look ahead when ranking teams. The Playoff Committee looks strictly at what has happened up to this moment in time.
Gary Patterson is out at TCU in his 21st season. This is about more than just wins and losses. It appeared that he may have been “losing his team.” He was the 2nd longest-tenured active head coach in FBS, behind only Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. That title now goes to Kyle Wittingham at Utah.
The College Football Silly Season is experiencing the same creep that Christmas has. Clay Helton was fired at USC just two games into the season. Georgia Southern fired Chad Lunsford just four games into the season. And to bring it full circle, with four weeks still left in the regular season Georgia Southern has just hired Clay Helton as its next head coach.
The Bad Beat of the Season Award has to go to Clemson and Florida State. Clemson, favored by 9.5, had a 4 point lead with just 4 seconds to go and Florida State having one final prayer from its own 33. The Seminoles attempted a hook-and-ladder that devolved into a series of laterals that sent them back….and back…and….well, you probably can guess what happened. Florida State bettors were angrily reaching for Chief Osceola’s spear.
If winning the Heisman Trophy comes down to having the best performances on the biggest stage, and it typically does, then Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker likely rushed his way into the pole position against Michigan.
It was an interesting day when it comes to coaches discussing recruiting in their Monday pressers this week.
First there’s Dan Mullen at Florida, in explaining the loss of many recruiting battles with Georgia, by saying “it’s not recruiting season yet.” Most coaches will tell you recruiting season is any day of the year that the NCAA says you are allowed to be in contact with recruits….like, right now. But okay, obviously Mullen’s full focus is on coaching the current team….and how’s that going?
Then you have Jimmy Lake at Washington, when asked why they have not recruited as well as Oregon lately. He basically said that they are recruiting at an “academic prowess” that is different (read: much higher) than Oregon. So basically he’s telling their rival team, the week they are to play each other, that their players aren’t smart enough to get admitted to his school. Interesting approach.
And finally, how crazy was it that on the day the first CFP rankings were released, the biggest story in college football might have been an assistant coach’s pole-dancing girlfriend’s pet monkey attacking a trick-or-treater?
This week is light on enticing matchups. That typically means it’s time to raise the Upset Alert awareness level.
Game of the Week
#13 Auburn at #14 Texas A&M
3:30pm ET, CBS
Spread: Texas A&M -4.5
This is sort of like the game I featured last week, Auburn hosting Ole Miss, where the grand prize is probably just the runner-up in the SEC West. I do think there is a little more intrigue this time around.
Unlike Ole Miss, Texas A&M actually owns the head-to-head tie-breaker against Alabama. So it’s a little more conceivable they could still be in the division mix with a win.
Auburn still has to play Alabama, but the Iron Bowl is on the Plains this year, where the Tigers have been known to dash the Tide’s hopes in the past. And with just one loss in conference so far, a win in College Station could mean the Iron Bowl is once again a de facto SEC West title game.
This game will likely come down to the two QBs, Aubrun’s Bo Nix and Texas A&M’s Zach Calzada. Both have had their ups and downs, but Nix has been the better performer of late. For that reason, I like the Tigers in a tight one.
My Pick: Auburn +4.5
Upset Alert?
#3 Michigan State at Purdue
3:30pm ET, ABC
Spread: Michigan State -3
How much of an upset would it really be when the press is asking the head coach on Monday whether his or not his team will be able to avoid a letdown? That’s what happened to Mel Tucker after knocking off Michigan and leading the Spartans to their first 8-0 start since 2015.
Purdue has been known to play spoiler in the past. They have also lost two of their last 4 and barely beat a bad Nebraska team last week.
Being just a 3-point favorite, even on the road, indicates a lot of people see an upset coming. Therefore, I think this one has Sparty’s attention.
My Pick: Michigan State -3
Maybe We Can Just Outsmart Them?
#4 Oregon at Washington
7:30pm ET, ABC
Spread: Oregon -7
With the Ducks at #4 in the CFP Rankings, this game now matters more on the national scene. If that wasn’t enough motivation for them, they have a chance to show off their new ranking against their rival and intellectual superior (thanks for that bulletin-board material, Jimmy).
The Huskies’ offense is awful, 78th in the country at .064 EPA per play. Their defense is far more respectable, and statistically would probably look much better if they weren’t being so stressed by their bad offense. Save the blowout at Michigan, they have lost their other games by a total of 16 points. But none of their 3 wins against the Power 5 have been pretty either.
I think this will be a close one. The Ducks just don’t blow anyone out, no matter how much more talented they are. I think they barely eke out a win.
My Pick: Washington +7
My Top 12
| 1 | Georgia |
| 2 | Alabama |
| 3 | Ohio State |
| 4 | Michigan State |
| 5 | Cincinnati |
| 6 | Oklahoma |
| 7 | Oregon |
| 8 | Michigan |
| 9 | Notre Dame |
| 10 | Baylor |
| 11 | Oklahoma State |
| 12 | Wake Forest |
Until they lose, I’m just going to have to learn how to love Wake Forest.
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.