That was one of the wildest and most unpredictable college football seasons I’ve seen since 2007. The Playoff and bowl matchups are all set. Playoff chaos was mostly avoided, but history was still made.
The early signing period is complete; and as has become customary most recruits have signed, though some big prospects still remain for the traditional signing day in February. We’re also starting to see the transfer portal heat up. Between the Coaching Carousel, roster building/turnover and Bowl games, December is probably the busiest and craziest month on the college football calendar.
Odds and Ends
As excited as I am for bowl season, the pronounced uptick of COVID outbreaks that we are seeing throughout professional and college sports over the past week has me feeling a little skeptical that we will see all of these games played. At the very least, I’d expect to see some teams impacted by COVID-related absences.
My guess is that we will see protocols similar to last season regarding the run-up to the Playoff games; that being the participating teams will go into a strict quarantine once they begin preparations.
I’m not buying the argument several notable figures, most notably Kirk Herbstreit, have made that because Cincinnati got in this season it means the system is fair. It took a lot more than just the Bearcats going 13-0 and beating the team that ended the season ranked #5. The champions of the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 all had at least two losses. If just one of those has one or fewer losses, Cincinnati is probably out. This was just one of those rare seasons where everything aligned perfectly for them.
Speaking of the Playoff system, considering all the statements and non-statements made in the wake of recent expansion meetings, I think it’s reasonably certain that we will not see expansion until 2026.
It took less than one week for the NCAA to ban “fake slides” like Kenny Pickett used in the ACC Championship. That’s how universally loathed the move was. Pickett, upon hearing the news, referred to himself as a “game-changer.” Well, can’t argue with that.
On Wednesday Temple announced that it hired Texas RB coach/run game coordinator Stan Drayton as their next head coach. That filled the last vacant FBS head coaching position. For now. Check back next month, as NFL firing/hiring season has been known to get the coaching carousel cranked up again.
It sounds more and more like the early signing period will be different going forward. Much of the blame behind the rash of midseason coaching dismissals is that schools wanted to have a new coach in place in time for the early signing period in mid-December. The thinking is that the new coach could hold on to some of the commitments, and bring in a few of his own, to rescue a recruiting class.
The problem is that the Coaching Carousel has a domino effect. One school filling its vacancy often leaves a head coaching vacancy at another school. So no matter what, someone is going to lose a recruiting class because they don’t have a coach.
Witness, Oregon. When Mario Cristobal announced on Dec 6 that he was leaving to become the head coach at Miami, the Ducks had the #9 class in the country based on verbal commitments. Many of the committed players, not knowing who the next coach would be, quickly took other offers. Oregon replaced Cristobal with Dan Lanning on Dec 13, just two days before the early signing period started. The result was that Oregon only ended up signing 7 players, ranking #31. Now Lanning will have to scramble to assemble a freshman class in February from what remains of the recruits who did not sign a letter of intent, and probably fill-in via the transfer portal.
Oregon is just one example of programs that have been hurt by the timing of the early singing period and its close proximity to the coaching carousel. We’ll see what the solution is, but it sounds like the NCAA will either eliminate the early period or push it back to January. While this would solve the issue of coaching change impact, it does defeat the purpose of why recruits wanted the ESP to begin with; to end their recruitment earlier.
I think a better solution would be to have the early signing period in August, shortly before the season. I would also add the ability for a recruit to void their NLI if the head coach when they signed said NLI leaves before the traditional signing day in February. Then they can find a new school, if they choose, without needing to go through the transfer process.
There are over 2,000 football players currently in the transfer portal. Not all of them entered during or after this season, and not all of them will find a new home. I absolutely think the loosened transfer rules are fair and just, but I think a lot of players really need to evaluate their position and options before going that route to ensure it’s in their best interests. It is not going to be a panacea for everyone who just wants a change of scenery.
Here are the non-Playoff bowl game matchups I’m most looking forward to. Bowl games are pretty tough to predict, given a lot of factors that don’t exist during the season. I’l take my best shot, but my picks are based on where things stand as of this writing.
Sugar Bowl
#7 Baylor vs #8 Ole Miss
January 1, 8:45pm ET, ESPN
Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Spread: EVEN
Lane Kiffin & Matt Corral vs Dave Aranda and the Bears D. Yep, sign me up for that! But don’t underestimate the matchup on the other side of the ball, as Baylor’s offense and the Rebels D tend to be overlooked. The Bears are hopeful that starting QB Gerry Bohanon can return from a hamstring injury. They also have a very good running game, and while the Rebels were much improved on defense this season, stopping the run was still an issue for them.
Ole Miss has been hit harder by the portal thus far, but none of the portal entrants were major contributors. A bigger thing to keep an eye on is opt-outs. Corral, who has already stated he will leave for the NFL but also intends to play, has been hobbled on and off all season. If he aggravates an injury during practices, does he change his mind?
In the season that saw the SEC raid the Big 12’s two biggest brand names, this matchup is huge for Baylor and its remaining conference mates. The Big 12 would hate to see its champ beaten by the SEC’s third best team. Of course none of that matters to the players.
My Pick: Baylor
Rose Bowl
#6 Ohio State vs #11 Utah
January 1, 5pm ET, ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Spread: Ohio State -6.5
The Rose Bowl game is back in the Rose Bowl after a one-year hiatus. That alone makes everything seem right in the world.
It’s easy to write off the Utes’ chances in this one, but they have enough similarities to the last team that the Buckeyes faced to make me think this could be interesting. Like Michigan, Utah has a run-centric offense, a very strong defense, and an overall physical style. They’ll probably come in with a chip on their shoulder too, as I think many will say they have little chance against OSU’s high-powered aerial attack.
As far as the Buckeyes are concerned, I think it will come down to focus and their ability to protect CJ Stroud. No word yet on whether Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson, who both are NFL-bound, will play in this game. Even if they don’t, Stroud’s top option of late has been Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will play. Utah knows they need to get after Stroud if they are to slow down the Buckeyes enough to have a chance. I think OSU is motivated enough after the stinging Michigan loss that they’ll be up to the task.
My Pick: Ohio St -6.5
Frisco Bowl
#24 San Diego State vs UTSA
December 21, 7:30pm ET, ESPN
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Spread: UTSA -2.0
This is a contrast-of-styles matchup between arguably the two best G5 teams not-named Cincinnati. The Aztecs’ defense, which had been stout all season, got roughed-up against Utah State in the MWC Championship and will need an answer to the Roadrunners’ balanced offensive attack led by RB Sincere McCormick (1,479 yards, 15 TDs) and dual-threat QB Frank Harris.
Offensively the Aztecs’ best weapon might be their punter, Matt Araiza, who averaged an NCAA-record 51.47 yards per punt this season. His ability to give the field-position edge to SDSU has been the difference-maker for an offense that doesn’t rack up a lot of yards or points.
Being in Texas, this will look and sound like a UTSA home game. The Roadrunners need to use whatever momentum they’ll have to score early, as whoever can dictate the style of play will probably win.
My Pick: San Diego State +2.0
Honorable Mention:
Liberty Bowl
Mississippi State vs Texas Tech
December 28, 6:45pm ET, ESPN
Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN
Spread: Miss St -8.5
I only mention this because the thought of Mike Leach taking on his former employer, who he sued for unpaid salary after his firing in 2009 (the case was dismissed) is kind of intriguing. That intrigue should last for all of 10 minutes, after which I expect Mississippi State to cover easily, and thus I hardly consider this a must-see game.
Though for what it’s worth, Mike Leach is still mad about that unpaid money.
My Pick: Mississippi State -8.5
I’ll dig into the Playoff games sometime between Christmas and New Years. Happy Holidays, everyone!
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.