The Top 5 losing streak ended last Saturday, but two Top 10 teams lost to unranked teams, so I think that at least keeps the unpredictability of this season going.
Overreaction: It’s time to take Wake Forest seriously as a fringe Playoff contender after laying 70 points on Army.
After Iowa, Wake Forest has probably been my top target as a team whose impressive record does not correlate with how good they actually are. I still feel that way, though I will take this opportunity to look at them a little closer.
The Demon Deacons have an offense that is probably unique to all of college football, and fun to watch. Preparing for them is probably the same as what it’s like to prepare to face the triple-option. When you only see it once in an entire season, if that, it can be a challenge. Defenders must know and be completely disciplined in their assignments.
They are running what could almost be called a hybrid between an RPO and Air Raid offense. Many of those offenses are predicated upon getting a particular defender “in conflict,” meaning he alone has to commit to defending one player or another. This usually occurs at what’s known as the “mesh point.” This is where a QB will hold the ball at the belly of his RB, and depending on which way the conflict defender commits, the QB either lets the RB take off with the ball, or pulls it out and runs himself, or passes it, or both. The ball is usually at the mesh point for about half a second. For Wake Forest, the ball can stay in the mesh point for as much as three seconds. This exaggerated mesh point allows them to actually put more defenders in conflict, giving them more choices on where to attack.
That’s a somewhat simplified version of what they’re doing. For a more detailed read, Yahoo! Sports’ Pete Thamel has an excellent piece on WF’s offense, the coach who devise it, and its evolution.
Here’s where I’m not buying. First, we’ve seen Wake jump out to a great start just recently. It was only two years ago, when they were 7-1, the only loss coming by 3 points to Louisville in a shootout. Then they went on to lose 4 of their next 5, including a bowl game. Save Clemson during that 2019 swoon, the competition wasn’t appreciably tougher. They just couldn’t sustain their offensive output, plus their defense was bad.
The defense is still bad this season. And even with a unicorn scheme on offense they aren’t scoring 70 points every week. Of course, Clemson isn’t Clemson this year….even Wake’s defense could shut down their offense. So there are no juggernauts on their remaining schedule to bring them back to earth. Still, I’ll be surprised if they win the Atlantic Division, and shocked if they beat Pitt in the Championship Game. They are one of this season’s good stories, but a Playoff contender they are not.
Recalibration: On the other hand, Ohio State is a top Playoff contender, again, thanks in large part to a revitalized defense.
Much was made of the switch in defensive play calling Ryan Day made after getting gashed by Oregon in Week 2; from Kerry Coombs to Matt Barnes. Thus far it does not appear their blitz rates and coverage packages have significantly changed since the switch. For whatever reason, the defense is just playing better. The Buckeyes allowed an EPA per play of .08 against Minnesota in the opener, and then .28 against the Ducks.
The week after Barnes took over, they allowed -.02 EPA per play to Tulsa. Better, even decent, though not great considering it was Tulsa. Since then it’s been -.25 against Akron, -.18 against Rutgers, -.14 against Maryland, and -.20 against Indiana. Granted, those are far from fearsome opponents; but if you are OSU you have to feel good about the trend as the competition level will slowly ramp back up to what the Buckeyes saw at the beginning of the season. Next up it’s Penn State, followed by Nebraska and Purdue, and then finishing with Michigan State and Michigan.
Meanwhile, the Ohio State offense is still lights out, as CJ Stroud continues to put himself in the Heisman discussion, their receivers have been the elite unit everyone expected, and true freshman RB TreVeyon Henderson has been a very pleasant addition (averaging a whopping 8.77 YPC on 79 carries).
Meanwhile, looking at the rest of the Big Ten, Penn State has faltered badly since Sean Clifford left the Iowa game with an injury (showing their lack of depth), and the next week Iowa was finally exposed. While Michigan and Michigan State are enjoying nice renaissance seasons, one will already have a conference loss by the time they play OSU, and I just don’t see either as being more talented. Until someone topples the king, the Buckeyes still rule the B1G.
Odds and Ends
The new overtime format needs to go. Settling a football game with dueling 2-point conversion attempts is like settling a hockey game with a shootout. If the excuse is you are protecting players from injury, then why not just go with a round of Tiddlywinks?
Lousy OT format or not, shame on you, Penn State, for allowing it to get to that point against Illinois. At home. Now stop whining.
Another coach bites the dust. This time it’s Mark Wells at Texas Tech, despite the Red Raiders currently sitting at 5-3. I can’t remember a year when there were so many in-season firings. But like I always say, there’s no point in waiting until the season is over if you know you’re firing the guy (cough-LSU).
As of this writing, the Sun Belt Conference has officially announced it will be adding Southern Mississippi and Old Dominion to its membership from Conference USA. Marshall is expected to follow soon. As is James Madison from FCS. Conference USA will soon be left with just Florida International, Middle Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, and Texas – El Paso. That’s below the minimum they need to exist as a conference. They could always try to invite some bottom-feeding independents, like UConn, UMass and New Mexico State; but at this point, you have to wonder if any of them would really see the benefit of it.
#2 Cincinnati, hoping to be the first G5 school to crack the Playoff glass ceiling, beat 1-win Navy by just 7 points. Normally, you would think a team in their situation needs style points against lesser opponents, but in this case I’m not sure it matters. I stated several weeks earlier that I think the Bearcats need more than just a 13-0 finish, and I still feel that way. We’ll have a better picture once the first official Playoff rankings come out next week, but I think they will need one or two other teams to stumble in order to get in….and if those teams do stumble, no one will care that the Bearcats barely squeaked by Navy.
If you are pulling for Cincinnati to get in the Playoff, a big game to watch this weekend is Houston at #19 SMU. The Bearcats play the Mustangs Nov 19th, and it would greatly help their resume if SMU is still unbeaten and ranked a little higher than they are now. The two teams could very conceivably have a rematch a couple weeks later in the AAC Championship Game.
Do we need to be taking Pitt more seriously? I’m sure some of their success is simply taking advantage of a (very) down year for the ACC. But they look to me like the class of that conference, and it’s not particularly close. Still, it’s hard for me to get over the fact that they lost to a middling MAC squad in Western Michigan.
Despite being 6-0 and ranked #8 in the AP headed into last Saturday, no one really took Oklahoma State seriously as a Playoff contender. That was never more apparent when, upon losing to Iowa State, no one seemed to be at all surprised.
The coaching seats in the Sunshine State are feeling as tropical as South Beach. Lots of rumors making the rounds over the past few days that Dan Mullen and Manny Diaz may be done after the season at Florida and Miami, respectively. Interestingly, Florida State’s Mike Norvell, who had a brutal start to the season, seems safe in the wake of a three-game Seminoles win streak.
Right now, it appears that the toughest hurdle Oregon will face in trying to get to the Pac-12 title game at 11-1, in hopes of somehow getting in the Playoff, is the Civil War* game against in-state rival Oregon State. Should make for a very entertaining Thanksgiving here in the Pacific Northwest.
*The PC cops say we can’t call the game the “Civil War” anymore. But unless they come up with a better name to replace it, I’ll just stick with tradition.
So….this week. It’s gonna be epic. If someone you know is having a wedding you have to attend this Saturday, you seriously need to examine your relationship with them.
Game Of The Week
#6 Michigan at #8 Michigan State
Noon ET, FOX
Spread: Michigan -4
The battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy hasn’t meant this much in quite a while. The last time these two met with both ranked in the Top 10 was 1964. This is one of the more underrated rivalries in the sport, no doubt somewhat overshadowed by Michigan’s game against Ohio State every year (save 2020) getting so much attention. Michigan has dominated this series historically, but the Spartans have actually won 9 of the last 13, including last season in what was Mel Tucker’s first win as Sparty’s coach.
These are two very complete teams. It’s a contrast of styles offensively; Michigan churns out 253 yards per game rushing, while Michigan State is more of a big-play offense, both through the air and on the ground with Heisman candidate Kenneth Walker III. Defensively the Wolverines are just nasty. The Spartans are great at getting after the QB, though how big a factor that will be against a run-first team is a question mark….they need to force third-and-longs. I think the Wolverines defense will be the difference in this game
My Pick: Michigan -4
An SEC Sleeper
#10 Ole Miss vs #18 Auburn
7pm ET, ESPN
Spread: Auburn -3
This may only end up being a battle for SEC West runner-up, but there’s a good chance that team will play in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. I’d say that matters. How does Ole Miss end up an underdog as the higher ranked team? Well, not only do they have to hit the road, but they are also playing for the 5th straight week, while Auburn had last week off to prepare.
Auburn’s defense should be able to win some battles against Matt Corral & Co. The question is can they win enough of them to keep their offense from having to become one-dimensional? Bo Nix can be a good QB if Auburn can mix up the play-calling. If they have to come from behind, Nix can be a big impediment for the Tigers. I think Auburn can run it well enough against the Rebels defense to keep Nix comfortable, and just as importantly, keep Corral on the sideline for much of the game.
My Pick: Auburn -3
A New Streak?
#1 Georgia vs Florida (at Jacksonville)
3:30 ET, CBS
Spread: Georgia -14
You’ve heard me say repeatedly that from Week 5 to Week 7 an unranked team defeated a Top 5 team. Could this be the start of a new streak? Georgia looks unstoppable. Other than their 10-7 win against Clemson (which in retrospect seems an improbably small margin of victory) they have crushed everything in their way.
Meanwhile, Florida went from the #11 team, even in defeat to Alabama, to unranked and Dan Mullen on the hot seat. The Kentucky loss might have been excusable. The loss to dead-man-walking LSU was not. Unless Mullen’s guys are on a mission to save his job, I don’t see a good result here. Even if they are on a mission, it probably won’t matter.
My Pick: Georgia -14
My Top 12
| 1 | Georgia |
| 2 | Alabama |
| 3 | Ohio State |
| 4 | Cincinnati |
| 5 | Oklahoma |
| 6 | Michigan |
| 7 | Michigan State |
| 8 | Oregon |
| 9 | Ole Miss |
| 10 | Iowa |
| 11 | Notre Dame |
| 12 | Kentucky |
It’s a great ending to what has been an epic October of college football. Stay tuned for the first CFP rankings!
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.