With the Week Zero appetizer in the rearview, it’s time to prepare for the main course of the college football season. Week One has several intriguing matchups, including three games with ranked teams going head-to-head. I will be selecting 3-4 games each week throughout the season to preview with my own thoughts and predictions. Normally I’ll have recent analysis and data on these teams as a foundation for my predictions, but this week it’ll read more like a season preview piece. Such is Week One. And with that…
#23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas (3:30pm ET, ESPN) Line: Arkansas -6, O/U 52
The last vision I have of Cincinnati is Alabama running all over them in the CFP Semifinal. Despite having a Heisman-winning QB and a running game that struggled much of the season, the Tide recognized they had a mismatch in their favor on the line of scrimmage and ran the ball early and often. The result was 301 rushing yards on 6.4 per-carry and a 27-6 victory that never felt in doubt. I bring this up because Arkansas was 7th in the country last season in rushing offense at 227.8 yards per game. It’s a new season, with new faces, but I don’t see where the Bearcats are any more likely to have success against SEC talent.
The Bearcats will need to make every offensive possession count. That might be tough with their starting QB, leading rusher and leading receiver from ‘21 gone. On the plus side, Arkansas has a lot of players on defense they need to replace as well. I don’t think it will be enough to help Cincinnati prevent the Hogs from controlling this game in what should also be a tough environment to play as a road team.
Pick: Arkansas straight-up, Arkansas ATS
#11 Oregon vs #3 Georgia (at Atlanta, GA, 3:30pm ET, ABC) Line: Georgia -17.5, O/U 53
Georgia embarks on their title defense against an interesting opponent; one now coached by the coordinator of their historic defense last season. While we don’t know for sure, it seems very likely the Bulldogs will also see a familiar face behind center. Of course, the individuals I’m speaking of are Oregon head coach Dan Lanning and QB Bo Nix, formerly of Auburn. How important are past histories and familiarities between these two opponents? Not much, if at all, I’d say.
Much has been made of the losses the Bulldogs suffered on the defensive side of the ball – 8 starters departed, all of them NFL draft picks. And of course, the coach who led them as well. Years of stacked recruiting classes should enable them to reload. Offensively Stetson Bennett IV returns eager to prove his doubters wrong. He has the best TE group in college football to target; and while running an offense through TEs is not typically a recipe for success, this may be an exception. The offensive line has a great pair of bookend tackles and center, and the running backs are talented, if inexperienced. In other words, don’t expect any dropoff from last season, then they scored 38.4 points per game.
Oregon is a very talented team. They have one of the best offensive lines in the country, talented replacements for last year’s skill-position players who moved on, and a defense that should be one of the best in the Pac-12. On the other hand, they have a first-time head coach and will likely start a QB who 0-3 against Georgia with just one TD pass, to go with two INTs. If Nix doesn’t get the start, it will be redshirt freshman Ty Thompson, who has never started a game in college. Is there a path for Oregon to victory? Very unlikely. As for the spread, I have a tough time picking against a team this talented when they are getting so many points, even though I think the AP has the Ducks too high at #11 (I have them at #20). But Georgia, along with Alabama and Ohio State, are simply on another level from the rest of the sport right now. Playing what is essentially a home game for Georgia, and nearly 2,200 miles from Eugene, doesn’t help.
Pick: Georgia straight-up, Georgia ATS
#7 Utah at Florida (7pm ET, ESPN) Line: Utah -2.5, O/U 51
In many ways these teams are similar. They both want to run the ball and play good defense. Both of them found their best QB in the middle of last season; Cameron Rising for Utah and Anthony Richardson for Florida. Utah did a much better job in utilizing Rising’s talents that Florida, who seemed to take the square-peg-round-hole approach with Richardson. But that was a different coaching staff, and the assumption is Billy Napier will do much better at scheming to Richardson’s strengths. The Gators’ receivers are huge, but don’t typically get much separation, which means Richardson will need to be more on-target. Utah’s passing game is almost entirely predicated on their ability to run the ball (i.e. RPO’s and play-action).
The defenses are also similar in that there is talent and good coaching, but both have some holes to fill from last season. Their top objective will be the same in this game; don’t spend too much time on the field in the stifling early-September heat and humidity Florida is famous for.
This game should be won by whichever team runs the ball most effectively. That said, there is a difference-maker that I’m not sure is being fully accounted for by oddsmakers and the media, and that is Florida’s home field advantage. The Swamp makes pretty much every Top 10 list of most hostile stadium for visiting opponents. Furthermore, the current Utah players have never played in an atmosphere remotely like it. The closest thing the Pac-12 has to The Swamp is Autzen Stadium in Oregon, and Utah hasn’t played there since 2017. Having to traverse three-quarters of the continent to get to Gainesville does not make it any easier. Most home field advantages are worth about 3 points. I think in this instance it might be worth a touchdown.
Pick: Florida straight-up, Florida ATS
#5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State (7:30pm ET, ABC) Line: Ohio State -17, O/U 59
All due respect to Marcus Freeman and the Irish, they should be a good team this year – but I think the polls having them 5th in the country is too generous. It seems Vegas might agree, as evident in their status as a 17-point underdog to Ohio State. The Irish are using that as motivation, as they should; but motivation alone will not help them slow down the Buckeye offense. Their pass defense was middling in yards-per-game allowed last year (64th), though better in yards per attempt and completion. But they never faced an offense like Ohio State, who have a 1st Round NFL QB and 3-4 receivers legitimately capable of exploiting the weak link in your secondary (despite the loss of WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave). Replacing S Kyle Hamilton, by far the best player and leader of the Irish secondary in ‘21, does not help. Notre Dame’s best hope is getting a lot of pressure on QB CJ Stroud, but that won’t be easy against one of the best offensive lines in the country that was Top 15 in sacks allowed in ‘21. Running stunts and moving their top pass-rusher, DE Isaiah Foskey, around to give him one-on-one matchups is crucial. Don’t overlook the importance of slowing down the Buckeyes’ running game either. A lot of their offense is RPO-based, which is predicated on getting defenses to respect your running game. It’s no coincidence that Ohio State’s two losses last season, to Michigan and Oregon, came in games where they did not run the ball well.
When the Irish are on offense, the formula is simple; run the ball and be at least efficient in the passing game. Stopping the run was the Buckeyes’ Achilles heel last season, so make them prove they’ve fixed the problem. DC Jim Knowles was brought in to address that, but this being the first game with a new scheme, there could be assignment or communication issues that hamper them. This will be no easy task for OSU. QB Tyler Buchner is a dual-threat (albeit much more so with his legs), they have a good stable of backs to replace leading rusher Kyren Williams, and their offensive line is again among the nation’s best. Their receiver corps is very thin on proven production, but TE Michael Mayer can be an effective security blanket for Buchner.
In summary, Notre Dame must shorten the game by limiting possessions and hoping their defense can slow down the Buckeye offense enough to keep it tight into the 4th Qtr, making everyone dressed in scarlet and gray uncomfortable. Much like the Georgia-Oregon game I have a hard time picking against a talented team getting 17 points. Unlike the Georgia-Oregon game, I think it will be closer this time.
Pick: Ohio State straight-up, Notre Dame ATS
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.