And here I thought Week 2 would have a tough time following up Week 1 for excitement! Will I ever learn? There’s quite a few interesting games for Week 3 – Nebraska entering the post-Scott Frost era by hosting #6 Oklahoma, #7 USC with a chance to show their defense can be respectable against a high-flying offense in Fresno State, and a sneaky-interesting matchup as #16 NC State hosts Texas Tech. As always, it wasn’t easy to whittle it down to four games that I would dig deeper into and go on record with a prediction; but I managed anyway. Here goes…
#22 Penn State at Auburn (3:30pm ET, CBS) Line: Penn State -3, O/U 47.5
The Nittany Lions will be the first Big Ten team to ever play in Jordan Hare Stadium (the Tigers did host Ohio State in Montgomery, AL back in 1917). This game figures to have a similar profile as last year’s 28-20 Penn State win in Happy Valley – a back-and-forth affair that was ultimately decided by the defenses.
Offensively, Penn State expects to be able to rely on their running game more than last year, when they ran for just 84 yards on 2.5 yards per carry. They put up big numbers on the ground last week, rushing for 234 yards overall while touted freshman RB Nate Singleton had 179 of those yards, becoming the Lions’ first 100-yard rusher in a game since 2020. That said, last weeks opponent was Ohio (not State). This week will provide a much better litmus test as to whether they will have a more balanced offense.
Speaking of balance, Auburn is seeking similar from its offense – only they have been much more heavily reliant on the run versus the pass. They must be able to get more passing production from QB TJ Finley (or backup Robby Ashford, if that ends up being the case). They can’t allow Penn State to simply stack the box and key on Tank Bigsby all day, even though that’s what Penn State is likely to do until the Tigers prove they can move it though the air.
This is a tough pick. Penn State is the more talented team and have the better QB, though not a great one by any stretch. However, they are on the road where they haven’t had the best of success in the James Franklin era (19-18). Teams more talented than the Lions have walked into Jordan Hare a decisive favorite, only to walk out with an L. My gut says it’s the Tigers in a nail-biter.
My pick: Auburn +3, Auburn S/U
#12 BYU at #25 Oregon (3:30pm ET, Fox) Line: Oregon -3.5, O/U 58
This is the first time these schools have met in the regular season since 1990. That was the year Ty Detmer won the Heisman Trophy and the Cougars shocked #1 Miami in Week 2. Three weeks later they went to Autzen Stadium ranked #4 in the country, while the Ducks were still years away from being a nationally recognized program. Oregon pulled off the upset that day, doubling-up the Cougars 32-16 and ending their title hopes.
While they barely crept back into the Top 25 after some fine-tuning in an easy win against Eastern Washington last Saturday, the Ducks will still be seeking a measure of redemption in the wake of their season-opening pummeling at the hands of Georgia. For as bad as things looked against the Dawgs, there were small slivers of positives that may give insight into this week’s game. First, the Ducks’ offensive line mostly held its own. They did not allow a single sack to one of the game’s best defensive fronts. They also moved the ball offensively; only going three-and-out once the entire game. Defensively there was much less to like. Georgia beat them sideline routes early and often, and the Ducks were never able to stop it. Now that it’s on film, expect BYU to make Oregon prove they’ve fixed it.
Meanwhile, the Cougars are coming off a very emotional and physical overtime victory against then-#9 Baylor in Provo, and have no room for a letdown. Against the Bears their defense was stifling, allowing less than 300 total yards. One concern was they did allow Baylor to convert 50% on third down. Offensively QB Jaren Hall won the game for them. Despite being without their two best receivers, Hall threw for 261 yards and a touchdown against one of 2021’s Top 10 defenses. They were ineffective running the ball (83 yards, 2.5 ypc) and did poorly on third down (3/14). They’d benefit greatly if WR’s Puka Nakua and Gunner Romney can return from injury. No official word yet, though both have been doing drills in practice this week. Expect a game time decision.
BYU might want to hope this game doesn’t come down to FG’s, as their normally reliable kicker missed two that would have won the game last week. Perhaps unfortunately for the Cougars, I think this will be a close game where a FG just might make the difference.
My pick: BYU +3.5, Oregon S/U
#11 Michigan State at Washington (7pm ET, ABC) Line: Washington -3.5, O/U 56.5
We knew coming into the season that the Huskies defense should be pretty good, and that has been the case thus far. They have given up an average of 235 yards and 13 points per game. Of course, that sample size is small, and the opponents were Kent State and Portland State. Offensively they have a new scheme with head coach Kalen DeBoer and a big-armed QB to make it go in Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr. We know that when healthy (which unfortunately isn’t often) Penix can get it done against tough competition.
The Spartans have faced a tougher test in their first two games thus far, if only barely. Against Western Michigan, one of the expected contenders for the MAC title, they were a bit sluggish in the 1st and 3rd Quarters, but never really seemed threatened. Unlike Western Michigan, their second opponent, Akron, is a MAC lightweight. I doubt we can take much away from the Spartans’ 52-0 whitewashing of the Zips, other than they did what they were supposed to do. If there is a concern, it is that QB Payton Thorne hasn’t been terribly sharp in the early going, having completed just 57% of his pass attempts and has 3 picks so far. They do appear to have a nice find at RB in Nebraska transfer Jalen Berger (227 yards, 4 TDs, 6.9 ypc).
I can’t quite figure the line on this game. Vegas is essentially saying this would be a tossup if played at a neutral site. Do they know something about one, or both, of these teams that I don’t? Husky Stadium is no easy place to play, but I’m not really there yet with Washington.
My pick: Michigan State +3.5, Michigan State S/U
#13 Miami at #24 Texas A&M (9pm ET, ESPN) Line: Texas A&M -5.5/ O/U 45
Similar to Penn State and Auburn, this game features two teams whose defenses are playing well, while their offenses have warts. A&M has some good skill players on offense, but lacks good quarterbacking. Miami has a very good quarterback, but not much skill-position talent around him. Miami’s situation got even worse with the announcement that their best receiver, Xavier Restrepo, will be out indefinitely with a foot injury.
These teams have won three games between them against low-level teams in unimpressive fashion. It goes without saying the one game against a decent opponent, the Aggies game against Appalachian State last Saturday, did not go well. Why exactly A&M lost that game is hard to pin on one thing. As mentioned, their quarterback play has not been good. Their offensive scheme is stale and not tailored to take advantage of the strengths their personnel possess. They may have been looking ahead to this weekend’s matchup. I do believe the Aggies will be extremely motivated to avenge their loss to App State. They also have the benefit of playing at home (not that it mattered last week, but still).
My pick: Texas A&M -5.5, Texas A&M S/U
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.