College Football 2023 – Rivalry Week

Here we are, college football fans. The end of another regular season is upon us, and with it the end of an era in many ways. We’ve dug into the upcoming changes many times before, and there will be plenty of opportunities to discuss them more in the future. But seeing as Week 13 is also Rivalry Week, I do want to point out several notable in-state rivalries that are either set to end due to realignment, or in one case will continue at least in the short term as a non-conference matchup.

I’ll first mention the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, which saw its finale played three weeks ago, as next year the Sooners will be off to the SEC. The two schools, Oklahoma State in particular, have publicly stated that at this time they have no intention of trying to schedule future games, so barring a chance meeting in a bowl game, their series that went uninterrupted since 1914 is over.

Another series that hasn’t gone on quite as long, but is still meaningful to many on the West Coast, is UCLA versus Cal. The two main UC institutions have met 93 times dating back to 1933, but with UCLA off to the Big Ten and Cal headed for the ACC, there are no scheduled matchups between them in the future, though both schools have expressed an interest in playing as non conference opponents. However, that may be easier said than done, at least in the short term. Due to previously scheduled non-conference games, particularly for UCLA who will still have a 9-game conference slate in the Big Ten, finding mutual open dates to play will be a challenge. Also noteworthy is that Saturday’s matchup between the two at the Rose Bowl will also be the Pac-12 After Dark game of the week. That means it will be the last Pac-12 regular season football game ever played….at least with the conference’s currently recognizable makeup.

Here in the Pacific Northwest, Friday may mark the final edition of the series formerly known as the Civil War (most of us Oregonians still call it that) between Oregon and Oregon State. The two schools first met on the gridiron in 1894 and will play for the 127th time Friday. The series has seen just two interruptions; once in 1911 in the wake of off-field incidents immediately after the 1910 matchup that included visiting fans being pelted with ears of corn, and in 1943-44 due to World War II. That is now set to end when Oregon leaves for the Big Ten next year while Oregon State embarks on an unknown future. Maybe. Oregon-based reporter John Canzano says the two schools are in discussions about trying to play next year, but nothing has been finalized yet or appears imminent.

• • As an aside, my online observations indicate that many Oregon State fans have no desire to continue the series, as they hold Oregon in contempt over their current situation, while Oregon fans seem mostly ambivalent about the matter. Personally, I think the idea of turning the series into a mostly-meaningless non-conference game played in September tarnishes what it meant to many before, and thus it should be left to rest. But that’s just me. –

Finally, there is one longstanding series in the Northwest that definitely will live on in the face of realignment, at least for the next few years. Washington and Washington State announced they will continue the Apple Cup series despite the Huskies departure for the Big Ten. The two will face each other on September 14, 2024 at Seattle’s Lumen Field for a neutral site tilt, and will then alternate playing on each campus from 2025-28. My feelings about that are the same as the Civil War – I don’t think it will ever have the same gusto being held in September with little on the line for either side. But if playing the game under those circumstances is still enough to make folks happy, who am I to argue?

Tiebreakers

I know it’s jumping ahead a bit, but there are game this weekend that will impact what we see on Championship Weekend, and what happens Championship Weekend is going to go a long way towards determining who gets in the CFP (more on that later). For some conferences, the matchups are already set. They are:

ACC – Florida State vs Louisville

SEC – Georgia vs Alabama

CUSA – Liberty vs New Mexico State

MAC – Toledo vs Miami Ohio

For two conferences, we’re halfway there

Big Ten – Iowa vs TBD

Pac-12 – Washington vs TBD

Sun Belt – Troy vs TBD

It’s pretty simple in the Big Ten. Whoever prevails in the Ohio State at Michigan game is the East Division winner and faces Iowa for the conference title (as well as a spot in the CFP)

In the Pac-12 it will be either Oregon or Arizona facing the Huskies. The Ducks clinch the spot with either a win over Oregon State or an Arizona loss against Arizona State. Should Oregon lose and Arizona win, Arizona would own the tiebreaker based on their better outcome versus the highest-ranked conference opponent that both teams played, that being Oregon State.

In the Sun Belt, East Division leader James Madison is ineligible for postseason play. That leaves Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion in play. Coastal beat App State in October so the Chanticleers have the head-to-head tiebreaker and control their destiny heading into the final week, but they are 9.5-point underdogs against JMU. App State is in with a win against Georgia Southern *and* a Coastal loss. ODU would have the 3-way tiebreaker edge if they win against Georgia State while App State and Coastal both lose.

Finally, the conferences in which no title game spots are set yet.

The Big 12 is quite messy, with seven (7!) teams still alive for two spots. Texas is currently the leader in the standings, and if they win at home against Texas Tech, they are in. If Texas and Oklahoma State both win (the Cowboys host BYU and are double-digit favorites) then that will be the matchup. If they don’t….um….you know, I’m going to be lazy and just copy what appears to be a well-detailed summary in The Athletic.

Scenario A: Texas, Oklahoma State win (Texas vs. Oklahoma State)

Projected chance: 71.4 percent

Scenario B: Texas, Oklahoma win, Oklahoma State lose (Texas vs. Oklahoma)

Projected chance: 8.4 percent

Scenario C: Oklahoma State and Oklahoma lose, Kansas State wins (Texas vs. Kansas State)

Projected chance: 2.1 percent

Chaos scenario six-way tie: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all lose and West Virginia wins (Texas vs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

Projected chance: 0.08 percent

I give them credit, they tried, despite not having 100% clarity from the Big 12 itself on what some of the least likely tiebreakers would be. But there apparently is a scenario where Texas could lose and not clinch a spot, and scenarios where West Virginia and Iowa State could. We just don’t know what they are. I think this best sums it up: \_(ツ)_/¯

The AAC also gets a bit complex. Tulane, UTSA and SMU are all 7-0 in conference. Tulane and UTSA play Saturday, so the winner of that is definitely in. SMU is also in if they beat Navy. If SMU loses, it gets murky die to lack of head-to-head matchups. I’ll go back to The Athletic on this one:

Scenario A: Tulane, SMU win (Tulane hosts SMU)

Projected chance: 53.7 percent

Scenario B: Tulane, Navy win (Tulane hosts SMU)

Projected chance: 4.7 percent

Scenario C: UTSA, SMU win (SMU hosts UTSA)

Projected chance: 38.2 percent

Scenario D: UTSA, Navy win (UTSA hosts Tulane)

Projected chance: 3.4 percent

Got it?

Last but not least, the Mountain West. This one comes down to UNLV, Boise State, Air Force and San Jose State. This will be decided by just two games, as the four face each other (Air Force at Boise State and SJSU at UNLV). You know what, I’ll just let the The Athletic take care of this too.

Scenario A: UNLV, Boise State win (UNLV hosts Boise State)

Projected chance: 31.1 percent

Scenario B: UNLV, Air Force win (UNLV hosts Air Force)

Projected chance: 16.6 percent

Scenario C: San Jose State, Boise State win (UNLV hosts San Jose State or Boise State)

Projected chance: 34.2 percent

Scenario D: San Jose State, Air Force win (UNLV likely hosts Air Force)

Projected chance: 18.1 percent

One more time, kudos to The Athletic for making my life a little simpler.

 

Rankings

(Michigan’s uninspired performance against Maryland, coupled with Georgia’s continued dominance, has finally led me to make a change at the top)

If we had a 12-team Playoff

Rivalry Week Picks

Friday:

TCU at Oklahoma (Noon ET, FOX, Line: Oklahoma -9.5)

As mentioned above, the Sooners need a win and some help to play for the Big 12 title next week. The latter is a bit tough, but they will take care of the former at home against a TCU squad that will fall short of making a bowl game just a season after playing for the national championship.

Pick: Oklahoma -9.5 

Oregon State at Oregon (8:30pm ET, FOX, Line: Oregon -13.5)

Rivalry aside, this is almost a must-have if the Ducks want to play for the Pac-12 title (hard to envision Arizona losing to ASU), and definitely a must have if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Oregon State would love nothing more than to ruin it all as a parting gift. The Ducks are on a roll, and I can’t see them losing at home. However, Oregon State can and should keep it closer than the spread indicates.

Pick: Oregon State +13.5, Oregon S/U

Saturday:

Ohio State at Michigan (Noon ET, FOX, Line: Michigan -3

Yes, my confidence in Michigan was shaken slightly after an uninspiring 7-point win at Maryland. QB JJ McCarthy in particular had a substandard afternoon. Some of that may have simply been looking ahead against an opponent they know they should beat. You could make a case that the weak schedule and not being challenged by anyone until they played at Penn State Nov 11th did not help. I doubt any of it had to do with the Harbaugh situation. Either way they absolutely must play better Saturday; again, McCarthy in particular. Having lost two in a row to The Team Up North, Ohio State probably feels like the hunter now, and they are hungry. I’ve mostly stuck with the Wolverines this season, and I won’t abandon them now.

Pick: Michigan -3

Kentucky at Louisville (Noon ET, ABC, Line: Louisville -7.5)

The Cardinals hope of getting in the CFP feels like a very long shot, despite being in position to win a power conference title with only one loss on the season. I’d say the biggest problem is that one loss came to 3-8 Pitt by 17 points. They do have wins against #18 Notre Dame and #22 NC State. Perhaps if they could add a win against Florida State to that resume things could change….but I think they’d need an unlikely confluence of events to get to the Top 4. Still, what an outstanding season for HC Jeff Brohm in his homecoming. He definitely makes my short list of NCOY candidates.

Pick: Louisville -7.5

Washington State at Washington (4:00pm ET, FOX, Line: Washington -16)

The Huskies will be playing for their first unbeaten regular season since 1991, when they won a shared national title. After dropping 6 games in a row, Washington State righted their ship against Colorado last Friday. But the Cougars defense has struggled mightily, and I don’t think they can slow down Penix & Co, even though the Huskies offense has had a couple clunkers this season.

Pick: Washington -16