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For starters, let’s go on the assumption that the season is played that they get in roughly 100 games. If they are okay with 1-2 doubleheaders a week, 100 games should be doable provided that they start playing sometime between mid-June and early July.

In a shortened season, even a bad team can get hot and make the playoffs. While I doubt the playoffs would be likely for the Os, they certainly stand a better chance of it happening in 100 games vs 162 games. The health of Trey Mancini will obviously be a big deal here but outside of him, the team is reportedly healthy and they should have “all hands on deck” whenever the season starts. A hot start and some unexpected good performances by the young players and you never know what could happen, especially since they are likely to expand the playoffs to make up for some of the lost revenue.

That being said, it is far more likely they are fighting for the #1 pick vs a wild card spot. When you are a bad team, one of the things that makes you feel good about where you are as an organization is the young talent you are developing. For the Orioles, a shortened season really hurts you in that regards. The Orioles have several young pitchers that have a lot of varying upside. Guys like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall have top of rotation upside and then you have the grouping of guys like Alex Wells, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, Bruce Zimmerman, et al..who could be mid to back end starter, weapons out of the bullpen or nothing at all. In a shortened season, these guys are going to get far less opportunities to perform at any level, much less get in the required amount of innings needed for proper assessment. You are also looking at the likelihood of no MiL baseball at all. It’s one thing to juggle the logistical nightmare that MLB and other pro sports are looking at. It is another to thrust the minor leagues in this as well.

The likelier scenario will be that the minor leaguers will be at their ST and extended ST facilities and working out, playing simulated games, etc…Perhaps, if they are lucky, they will be able to play some exhibition games with nearby teams but that is probably not likely given the game day crews needed for even that. What’s more likely is largely a lost season of development for the young players. Perhaps the AFL will expand this year but basically, the minor leagues are likely shot for the season. That obviously hurts the Orioles contention time line (if you believe they have one) because they need these young players to develop and become major contributors. The Orioles will not contend any time soon if they don’t get real contributions from the minor leagues and that obviously can’t happen if they can’t play.

Another important question is the service time aspect of these guys. Will they say the clock has already started? Will teams be able to “steal” a year of service time by keeping guys down a few weeks. This matters to the Orioles because a guy like Ryan Mountcastle is probably ready to be a MLer right now but they likely wouldn’t have brought him up until around today, April 19th, so that they could receive that extra year of service time. The reality is, that these questions about the minor leagues, service time and the 2020 draft are more important than what happens on the field in 2020.

There is also the scenario that the season is never played. MLB has decided that players will receive a year of service time and contracts will be honored on some level.  The biggest issue for the Os is that they will lose a year of service time for Givens, one of the few ML assets they have.  On the ML side of things, the issue will again come back to development.  Guys like Austin Hays, Mountcastle, etc…players that were going to contribute to the ML team this year but need more time to play are going to be hurt by not playing at all.

We are all faced with a lot of uncertainty due to this virus. What is happening with our pro sports franchises, young adults we have never met and money we will never comprehend is of little consequence to most of us. However, if you want to take the time to examine how these things are impacting your teams, it goes way beyond just does a season get played and if so, how will it look? Fanless or not, in Florida and Arizona or at home parks. Those are all the talking points most will focus on but for a team like the Orioles, the talking points go way beyond that and this could push the timeline of the rebuild further back.

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There is no doubt that the 2020 Orioles are likely to struggle to win 65 games and even that may be out of reach. However, this year is different than last year in many ways. While I was hoping to see Mancini and Givens dealt this offseason, it appears they will start the 2020 season with the Orioles. If they can both have good first halves, their trade values should be pretty solid. For Givens, I think teams just need to see him back on track and for Mancini, I think teams just need to see him back up his 2019 season with another very good season. The prospect of them being solid assets come July is exciting for me.

Let’s face it though, the part of this season that is really exciting is the infusion of young players we should see as the season goes on. The bullpen is already going to be the strength of the team and that is helped out by younger players like Hunter Harvey, Dillon Tate and Tanner Scott. However, it doesn’t stop there. The OF has a lot of younger talent, all of whom could be pieces for this team down the road. Austin Hays, if he can make it through March healthy, will be the everyday CFer. He is a guy who has always had everyday player ability but hasn’t been able to stay healthy to put in enough time to prove it. He was a monster in a SSS at the end of last year and showed that he could handle CF. We will see, over a larger sample size, if that is going to remain the case but I think he stands a reasonable chance to be a guy who, at the very least, isn’t going to hurt you out there. Anthony Santander had a very solid season last year. He displayed good power and a decent hit tool at times. He now needs to work on his plate discipline and walk more. I don’t think he is a regular but he can be a valuable player and be a good platoon guy who can give you 300-400 good at bats in a season. DJ Stewart, who is recovering from ankle surgery, is another guy to keep an eye on. The plate discipline has always been there but he also started to show some power last year. Like Hays, injuries have been an issue and sustaining his play has been stalled at times. In the minors, Yusniel Diaz should force his way up here soon enough. Mike Elias has spoken glowingly about him this offseason and said he likely ends up in AAA last year if not for his leg injury. Of course, this seems to be a theme with Orioles OF prospects…injuries. Diaz has to stay healthy but if he does, he is a guy to watch. I am personally very down on Ryan McKenna because I don’t think he will ever hit enough to justify a ML spot but the defense is apparently legit and if he can show that he can give you at least a 700 OPS, he may be able to find his way onto a roster as a 4th or 5th OFer.

The IF isn’t as promising. We will hopefully see Mountcastle come up in mid to late April. The Orioles should save that extra year of service time and really, giving him some more time to improve his defense isn’t the worst thing. Mountcastle is, IMO, a younger version of Mancini but if he can be an 800+ OPS guy at his age and his salary, that makes him very valuable to any team. The rest of the IF doesn’t have much promise to it. Hanser Alberto will take over second base. Coupled with new SS, Jose Iglesias, they form one of the best defensive MI in baseball, at least according to OAA. Alberto also had an excellent 2019 with the bat, especially against lefties. We will see if he can come anywhere close to that output in 2020 but he should get several hundred at bats to prove it one way or another, assuming the defense stays good. Behind the plate, the Orioles have Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino. Severino is easily the best defensive catcher out of the 2 but Sisco does have solid offensive upside. He showed flashes at times last year. He probably won’t stick at C long term but if he can hit, you will find some place for him.

Pitching has obviously been the biggest issue for the team. The starters ERA has been closer to 6 than 5 and they can’t seem to find answers. Unlike years past, I think the upside is higher in 2020. While I don’t think Means duplicates what he did last year (he had shaky peripherals), I do think he can at least be a guy who keeps you in most games. Alex Cobb, if he can ever stay healthy, should be a decent starter for the O’s. While I wouldn’t expect great numbers, a sub 4.5 ERA and getting into the 6th or 7th inning on most nights should happen. I suspect the Orioles will sign another vet starter, like Andrew Cashner, to be that other guy who should eat some innings. After that, you have the intriguing rule 5 pick in Brandon Bailey, a pitcher from Houston that Elias knows well. There is also young talent that can be up here on Opening Day or soon after. Guys like Keegin Akin, Dean Kremer, Bruce Zimmerman, Zac Lowther, Michael Baumann, and Alex Wells could provide the Orioles and their fans some long term excitement for the future. Even a guy like Kohl Stewart seems to be better depth than we saw last year. These aren’t guys projected as front-of-the-rotation types. Some of the aforementioned are viewed as fringe. But they’ve done enough in the Minors to believe there is some upside. There should be opportunities for them to arrive, and then we will see who takes advantage.

And for me, that is the key to 2020 and why I look more forward to it than most. They should have talent ready to come up, as opposed to cannon fodder. Sure, it’s possible none of these guys amount to anything but there is a chance and they give you reason to watch. Whether you hate tanking or want them to spend more money or whatever, this team is going NOWHERE anytime soon unless the existing talent within the organization provides you good value. Without that, the team is going nowhere. That would be the case if you spend 50M or 130M. 2019 didn’t allow us to see much of these types of guys. They just weren’t ready yet. 2020 should be different. Combine them with watching Adley Rutschman grow, along with the other top prospects like DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez and there is a lot to be excited about in 2020.

Pitchers and catchers reported today. This is always an exciting day to be a baseball fan. For O’s fans, the word excitement hasn’t been used that much the last few years. I think this year will be different, even if the win/loss column doesn’t reflect it.

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Things are getting a little more “normal” as we sit 4.5 weeks away from Selection Sunday, though seeing Baylor, San Diego State, and Dayton in the top is still a bit jarring. Teams we expected to be Final Four contenders back in November like Louisville, Maryland, Duke, and Kansas are now all solidly in the Top 10 and are looking at high seeds in the NCAA tournament. Michigan State has been a huge disappointment, now falling out of the top 25, but it wouldn’t be wise to sleep on a Tom Izzo team in March. MSU is the first team since the 2013-2014 Kentucky team to be a preseason #1 and end up out of the polls at some point during the year but they have a lot of opportunity to turn things around (including 2 games vs MD) and could still end up as a 3 or 4 seed.

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Looking around the country, the bubble is very weak and the teams that will be in the tournament aren’t much better. I don’t a lot of confidence in any one team to win the title this year. There is no team, outside of 1 vs 16 matchups (apologies to UMBC), that I see as a definite winner in their first game. Obviously, matchups can change that but generally speaking, I just don’t see any stand out teams. This is a wide open field but realistically, there are probably no more than 8 or so teams that can win 6 games.

All of the top teams have flaws, whether it’s a lot of youth, inconsistent play on either side of the court, not being battle tested or just not having that player(s) that you can rely upon to take over a game. The NBA draft this year is viewed as a weak one, which certainly adds up to the play on the court in college basketball this year. There is, of course, good and bad news to that. The bad news is that some may be drafted higher than they should because of the weak draft but the good news is that we should see more guys staying this year, which should make for a very good season next year.

The question now is, how legit are teams like Dayton and San Diego State? Dayton had a great run in Maui back in November and could run the table in the A-10 though they still have to play VCU & Rhode Island on the road, two teams that will play somewhere in postseason. The Aztecs really only have one semi tough road game left, at Boise State and could be undefeated going into the tournament. Kenpom likes each of these teams, as SDSU is 5th and Dayton is 6th in the rankings. Dayton also has Obi Toppin, the player who is seemingly the clubhouse leader for National Player of the Year. Wichita State pulled that off (going undefeated in the regular season) a few years back but fell as the #1 seed in the second round. I think there are several Maryland fans who would love for the Terps to be the #2 or 3 seed in the Aztecs bracket.

Speaking of the Terps, it seems like the student body and the MD fans have stopped the coaching search for the time being. MD is 8th in the Kenpom rankings. They have been one of the best defensive teams all year and while the offense has been up and down, the have been able to be a top 35ish offense for most of the year. They have won 6 in a row and 9 out of 11. The Big Ten has been the best conference in a very down college season this year and Maryland’s schedule to end the year will not be easy but they should be a #2 or #3 seed by the time the season ends. I do not think they can get a 1 because of the lack of good OOC wins and, while they are in the best conference, it’s not like there are many great wins because the top of the Big Ten is good but not great.

Staying locally, Towson is having a pretty nice season in the CAA, sitting at 8-5 in a really competitive conference. Hofstra and Charleston appear to be the strongest teams, but Towson (and others) could make some noise in the CAA tourney in a few weeks, which will be in DC this year. This will be one of the many “small conference” tournaments worth seeing, including the WCC. While Gonzaga rules the WCC, some think they can get as many as 3 teams in this year and even a team like San Francisco is pretty decent as well. Gonzaga is an elite offensive team whose defensive efficiency keeps getting better and better. They are deep and talented and can attack you in many ways. They have as good a chance as any to win the NCAA tournament this year.

The end to this season has a lot of intrigue. Will the ACC get more than 3 or 4 teams? How do the top teams like Duke, Louisville, Dayton, MD, etc…end the year? Will the Big Ten get 12 teams? Can SDSU stray undefeated? Will the loss of DeSousa hurt Kansas as we approach March and cost them 1 or 2 seed lines? Even in a down year, March will always bring a lot of excitement.

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With that being said, this is another installment of what is going on around the world of college basketball with myself and BSL contributor, Seth Bondroff.

As of now, the Big Ten looks like the best conference in the country, winning the ACC/Big Ten challenge with two huge blowouts near the top with Purdue crushing Virginia, and Ohio State embarrassing North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I was also surprised by the ease of which Indiana disposed of Florida St. The supposed top team in that conference, Michigan St, wasn’t so lucky. Duke, coming off their loss to Stephen F Austin just a week prior, dominated the Spartans on their home floor. Both Purdue and Michigan St have 3 losses yet they are both top 10 in Kenpom. That shows you what type of depth that conference should have this year. Michigan started the year unranked but they raced through UNC and Gonzaga in the Bahamas and jumped into the top 5. They got handled by Louisville but Juwan Howard has them playing well. And, of course, MD is off to a good start although they had a poor game against Penn St in their first loss of the season last night. MD needs to get Jalen Smith more involved in the offense.

Conversely, the ACC is down. Duke has some huge wins this year but the loss to SFA and their inconsistent shooting and lack of experience could still bury them early in March. Louisville is really good but they just got handled by a struggling Texas Tech team. UNC and UVA can’t score and FSU has been inconsistent early on. The depth of the league is also pretty poor. This sets up to be a pretty down year in the conference, which should allow some other leagues to get more NCAA bids than they have in recent years.

Early in the week, Georgetown looked like an absolute mess, losing players left and right, including James Akinjo, who was looking like he was headed to stardom. So, what happened? Naturally the Hoyas won two road games against previously unbeaten teams, Oklahoma State and SMU. Crazy. The situation in Georgetown will be worth monitoring though. Why did players want to leave? They had an inspired effort vs Duke a few weeks prior and that was after beating Texas. Why all of a sudden was everyone so unhappy?

There doesn’t appear to be any dominant team this season, but I don’t agree that up to 30 teams can win it all, which was something I heard on ESPN earlier in the week. Should be a really wide open NCAA Tournament come March though, that’s for sure. I think it’s set up for a lot of upsets and perhaps some very high seeds making the elite 8 but that’s not terribly unusual anymore. I would suspect that by the end of the year, there will be somewhere between 5-10 teams that can win it all.

Dayton continues to impress, winning easily at St Mary’s on Sunday after a terrific performance in Maui. They are led by Obi Toppin, who is on track to be a top 5 pick in the NBA draft. The A10 will test them although obviously not as much as one of the larger conferences will. Still, they won’t be flying below the radar due to what they have done so far this year.

There are some big games to look forward to before the Christmas holiday is here. In a matchup of top 10 teams, Michigan and Oregon face off this coming Saturday. Saturday also will see a top 20 matchup for the battle of Tennessee as the Vols face Memphis. The nightcap is Arizona vs Gonzaga, both teams ranked inside the top 15. That same Gonzaga team will face UNC next week, in Spokane. That figures to be a game to test UNC’s lack of scoring. The next day, we will see a huge game for the Terps, as they face a very good Seton Hall team. MD has a soft OOC schedule, so this game is big for their tourney resume. And finally, we get to a very good slate of games on Saturday, Dec 21st. It starts off with Kansas playing Villanova at the Wells Fargo Center in Philly. Both of these teams’ figure to be final 4 contenders by the of the year. Purdue and Butler square off in a sneaky matchup of 2 very good teams. As I mentioned, Purdue is in the top 10 in Kenpom and Butler is 11th. This will be a solid resume game for whomever comes out on top. Another sneaky game that day is the aforementioned Dayton Flyers taking on Colorado in Chicago. Those are 2 dangerous to 25 teams that could both make deep NCA tournament runs. Seth picked Colorado as a surprise final 4 team in our first article. And the final game is Ohio St vs Kentucky. Ohio St is arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the country. They are playing suffocating defense and have a very efficient offense.

That should be a lot to keep your attention before conference play really gets going after the holidays.

Here is our “Elite 8” (for the week ending 12/8).

Seth:

1-Louisville
2-Kansas
3-Maryland
4-Ohio State
5-Duke
6-Gonzaga
7-Kentucky
8-Michigan

Rob:

1-Louisville
2-Ohio St
3-Kansas
4-Duke
5-Michigan
6-Maryland
7-Gonzaga
8-Baylor

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I wanted them to make more trades at the deadline but I have to think Elias didn’t get good offers or else he would have moved players. I liked the Cashner deal. It was only two lottery tickets you received but Cashner was a ticking time bomb and getting him out of here as quickly as possible was smart and each of those lottery tickets has upside and could become something long term.

And while I was okay with last offseason (although I did feel they should take on some guys to 1-2 year deals and see if you could get something out of them), the approach over the first year isn’t good enough for me in Year 2. While I am very happy that he has gotten rid of a lot of people and brought in his own and that we are seeing more and more dedication to technology and things like that, it is time for Elias to start making more baseball moves.

What I don’t want to see is them overpaying for mediocre vet players just to have a better record. I am good with having a better team and feel they should put a 70-75 win team on the field next year, I also don’t want to see them doing that at the expense of future roster flexibility and I don’t want to see them block any young players that should be up soon.

The start of everything, to me, is deciding on what you are doing with your 4 main trade chips. Those players would be Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar, Dylan Bundy and Mychal Givens. I would personally like to see all 4 players traded. I am not trading any of them just to trade them although if they are considering non tendering Villar, I take the best offer for him. The other three players are guys I need to see good offers for. You don’t have to be blown away to trade them or anything but I do think you need to get very good offers for them.

Givens is an interesting case to me. His K numbers were great last year, his walk numbers were a little high but within his normal range and his HR numbers were sky high. However, with the juice ball that was obviously in place in 2019, I take that with a grain of salt. Yes, he has been prone to the home run in the past but not at the rate he did last year. I am not trading him for the normal value of a reliever with a 4.50 ERA. You wouldn’t expect to have to give up much to get that player, especially one that is further along in his service time and is in arbitration money years. I am more than happy to bring Givens back in 2020 if a good deal isn’t there.

Mancini is a guy I feel they have to trade. I don’t see him as a player that is an extension candidate. He is a good player but he doesn’t give you much on the bases and is a mediocre defender. He is versatile and he does have a good hit tool, so there is value there for sure. 11 teams got 1 WAR or less out of first base last year. 3 teams had negative DH WAR last year. He was top 30 in wOBA and wRC+ in all of MLB. He was a top 50 WAR player as well. He was clearly one of the top 25ish offensive players last year, which is pretty impressive considering the great offensive years we saw throughout the league last season. I have to think that there is going to be a deal out there for him that makes sense to move him. He still has a few years of service time and he is relatively cheap, so he makes sense for a lot of teams, not just immediate contenders.

As I mentioned before, Villar is a guy that is also someone you trade. He is coming off an excellent season where he showed power, speed and defense that, while not great, won’t kill you either. While I don’t agree that he gets 10 million in arbitration, I do think something along the 8 million dollar area is likely. He is likely to be worth that next year and while that’s not cheap, it’s not overly expensive either. Again, there should be a deal out there that satisfies you enough to trade him, especially if non tendering him is on the table.

Dylan Bundy is the hardest case here. I don’t expect the offers to be great for him. I think they could get 2 guys that are ranked in the 8-15 range of a good organization. There will be no top 100 prospects for him. He has been a guy that takes the ball every 5th day, has shown to be durable and gets a lot of Ks. His BB rate is solid and he misses a lot of bats. He also gives up a lot of homers and his ERA, xFIP and FIP are usually on the high side. He is very much like Chris Tillman used to be in that he will take the ball every 5th day but he is usually only good for about 170 innings a year. Still, there is value to that and he has a good attitude and appears to have some leadership qualities. He knows how to pitch but his stuff just isn’t good enough to work up in the zone, which is where he usually works. However, I can see teams looking to trade for him. If he is your 4th or 5th starter on a good team, you are in pretty good shape.

You may ask, how do you win 70+ games in 2020 if you trade these 4 players. Forgetting a moment, the players you could get back in trade, let’s see what makes sense for 2020 in terms of player acquisitions, looking strictly at FA options (for the purposes of this article, I am not looking at guys we could trade for from other teams). I think the strength of the team in 2020 will be in the pen. Recently, Nick Stevens wrote this article on the pen. There are some arms out there that are exciting and they have some more on the way. I still would like to see the team add another arm out there for more stability. The guy at the top of my FA reliever wish list is Dellin Betances. He missed last year with a partially torn Achilles but he has been an excellent reliever for much of his career. I would be good with a 2 year deal for him but my guess is that he will be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish his value. I would pay him as much as 10 million (I don’t think he gets this much but the O’s may have to and I think he has the upside to justify it). I would also hand him the closers role. I would hope to trade him by July but that would depend on a lot factors. Adding him to the pen we already have would give us a lot of high K, power arms out there and that would be the case whether you keep Givens or not.

The rotation has to be addressed. I have talked before about Colin McHugh. I continue to believe that he is an excellent guy to go after, assuming his elbow checks out. He has gone back and forth between the rotation and pen the last few years but I think if we hand him a rotation spot, it makes the O’s enticing for him. Figure there is a connection with Elias there as well. The oft-injured Brett Anderson is another target I like. While the K rate is poor, he keeps the ball on the ground, doesn’t walk a lot of guys and his injury history figures to keep his price down. Alex Wood is another guy that I feel would be worth looking into. He missed most of last year and has had some injury issues in the past but he also can be very good and you would think his value will be suppressed as well. He usually keeps the ball on the ground, limits walks and homers and gets his fair share of Ks. Get me a few of these types of guys (Teheran may also be in this group) …guys that can eat innings, keep you in games and whose values will be kept down. Yes, there is some injury concerns here and that could come back to bite you but I think it’s a risk worth taking for this team.

Offensively, I would go sign Jose Iglesias. His defense is still very good and he hits enough to be worth signing. I think it’s important to add some defense to this team, especially the IF. Let’s help out the pitching as best as possible. Starlin Castro is a potential bounce back candidate for me. Miami is a tough hitters park and while he has never been a great hitter, I think he could get back to a 780-810 level OPS guy in a better hitter’s park. I wouldn’t think he will be costly either. His defense has traditionally been suspect at second but UZR had him showing improvement in 2019. Still, I wouldn’t count on great defense from him, although I don’t think it will be much worse than Villar or Alberto either. The last guy I would target is Avisail Garcia. He plays a good enough RF. He has played in parks that could hurt his offense as well, so I think an 800+ OPS season from him is reasonable. He gives you a fairly decent BA as well. He is coming off a good year in Tampa but again, not one where it should make him a ton of money either.

Putting all of this together, you have this team (with the assumption that the other 4 are traded):

1st – Mountcastle (but not until the third week of the season for service time reasons)
2nd – Castro
SS – Iglesias
3rd – Alberto
RF – Garcia
CF – Hays
LF – Santander
DH – Nunez
C – Sisco

Bench: Davis (I would cut him but don’t think they will), Severino, Ruiz, Wilkerson, Smith Jr…Decision made when Mountcastle comes up on which of those guys is sent down/DFA’ed

Rotation: Cobb, Means, 3 of the pitchers listed above or 2 of them and Akin

BP: Betances, Harvey, Tate, Scott, Armstrong. I like those 5. Other 2 spots could go to a myriad of guys, including perhaps some guys who get MiL deals or something like that.

That’s certainly not a great team but it is a team that should be better than last year and one that doesn’t stop you from continuing to go through the process. By the deadline, I would hope to see Diaz up, as well as a few of the other guys like Pop (if he is healthy and back) and Kremer, to name a few.

Again, this is just looking at acquisitions solely through the eyes of free agents. There are obviously a lot of ways to go but I do hope that Elias does enough to make the team more competitive.  While this does add some vets to the team and there isn’t much long term upside with most of them, I do think he can bring in guys that can help now, can get you players in July and be a good bridge to some of the other young guys I expect to see as the season goes on.  These guys will all likely get 1 or 2 year deals and the money will be kept down.  There will be no overpaying or foolish moves that jeopardize anything long term.  I feel that many of these moves to carry an immediate upside that could at least make the team entertaining and perhaps give you more ammo for trades in July or even QO opportunities that could result in another draft pick.

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The Pac 12 got off to an excellent 17-0 start in non-conference games. The conference has been down in recent years but you have to wonder if they are on their way back. They don’t have many highly ranked teams according to Kenpom yet but their time could be coming.

Cole Anthony appears to be the best player in college basketball. We will see what happens with James Wiseman and I think Cassius Winston will win Player of the Year but the best talent appears to be Cole Anthony. Anthony and Wiseman will be battling it out for the #1 pick in June.

The Terps, fresh off of a 30-point win vs Oakland, are off to a predictable 3-0 start. Their non-conference schedule is pretty poor, with a big game against Seton Hall being an exception. Still, if Coach Mark Turgeon doesn’t hold them back, MD should be one of the best teams in the Big Ten and should make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. Led by Jalen Smith and Anthony Cowan, one of the best inside/outside combos in the country, this team looks like it could be in for a special season.

Duke is poised to take the #1 slot after a lackluster 74-63 win vs Georgia St on Friday. This is a talented Duke team and its led by one of the best leaders and defensive players in the country, Tre Jones. They will struggle to score at times and need better outside shooting but they could be very dangerous by the end of the year. They look like they will be a very good defensive team. Right now, they are only going to be #1 by default. They aren’t the best team in the country although they did beat a very good and experienced Kansas team.

The best team in the country is probably Michigan St although the injury to Langford does hurt them. They also lost to Kentucky in the Champions Classic a few weeks ago. Still, they probably have the best combo of experience, coaching, talent and depth in the country. Kenpom currently has them #1, Although I don’t think any rankings mean much right now. They did just beat a very good Seton Hall team in what was probably the best game in the early part of the season. They have a matchup with Duke coming up in a few weeks and they are out in Maui during Feast Week, in what promises to be a stacked tournament.

Speaking of Kentucky, their shocking loss to Evansville at Rupp is still hard to believe. A team that was picked to finish 8th in the Missouri Valley and was a 26 point underdog went into that environment and beat the #1 team in the country. It is as shocking a win as you will see and perhaps the most shocking in college basketball since UMBC beat UVA a few years ago in the NCAA tournament. However, don’t let the loss fool you. Kentucky is loaded and should be able to be one of the best teams in the country and make another deep run. And while this is a more experienced Kentucky team than usual, it is another reminder about tough it is to rely on so many freshman to win you games, no matter how talented they are. It also speaks to the parity around college basketball. Florida St lost to Pitt, who then lost to Nicholls St. In their next game, FSU beat Florida. We will see this all year long.

UVA, the defending champs, are off to a good start and appear to have not lost a step defensively, despite losing Jerome, Guy and Hunter to the NBA. I question if they will be able to score after losing so much though. If they can, they will be in for another deep tourney run in March.

Not many good games coming up this week. The 2K empire Classic at MSG is at the end of the week but outside of Duke, it doesn’t feature much star power although Georgetown could be in a for a solid season. Outside of that, there isn’t too much to get excited about. Of course, Thanksgiving week (also known as Feast Week) will have a plethora of great games for CBB fans (and all you betting enthusiasts) across the country.

As for early Final Four picks, Seth is going with Louisville, Mich St, Maryland and Colorado. I am going with Louisville, Michigan St, Seton Hall and Florida. Enjoy the season everyone, it should be another good one.

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Among the Orioles arbitration eligible players in Jonathan Villar. Villar is coming off a 4 WAR season, that saw him have a slash line of 274/339/453/792. His wRC+ was 107 and his wOBA was 335. He played average-ish defense at SS and slightly below average at second (according to UZR and UZR/150). All in all, I wouldn’t call his defense a strength but I wouldn’t say it’s a real weakness either. His ability to play both middle infield positions at a level that doesn’t hurt is valuable. Add to that, the 40 steals and a success rate over 80% and you have a pretty good all-around player, who is still only 28 years old. He was top 10 in WAR for both second baseman and SS. Because of his strong season, MLBTR is predicting him to make $10.4M in 2020. Personally, I feel that number is a bit high and I see him more in the range of $8-9M but for arguments sake, let’s just say Dierkes is right and he will be more in that $10M range.

Today, we have seen articles from two of the local Orioles beat writers (Melewski and Meoli) where they are at least mentioning the possibility of him being non-tendered. To me, this makes absolutely no sense on many levels.

First of all, I am of the belief that the Orioles could have traded him in July. Perhaps the return wasn’t great and maybe all they could get was something similar to the Cashner trade but if that is the case and if you didn’t want to pay him, why not take whatever you can get for him then? That tells me that they were already prepared to go into 2020 with Villar on the team. Either that or they had already been told by ownership that they can eat some money on his 2020 deal to make it easier to deal him. By doing that, they gambled that he would finish off the season well and then deal him in the offseason. Either way, not trading him was a signal to me that they were okay with keeping him.

Secondly, I don’t want to hear about the Orioles crying poor. From 2014-2018, the Orioles spent between $112 and $180M on their year-end payroll. Their Opening Day payroll in those seasons were between $107-165M. In the 3 years prior to that, the payroll was in the $85-95M range. The 2019 payroll was $80M, the lowest we have seen since 2010. If the arbitration numbers are right and the Orioles keep all 7 players (which they won’t IMO), that is about $28M. Combine that with what Cobb and Davis will get paid in 2020 (salary -deferred money) and you are at about $54.5M for 9 players. As of now, the rest of the roster will be made up of guys making roughly $600K. For the rest of the team, you are talking about spending less than $20M. Will the Orioles have 17 players making around the league minimum? Probably not. You figure they add in a few vets making some mid-level contracts but, like I said, I also don’t see them tendering all 7 of those guys a contract. Bleier and Castro seem to be goners and I am not convinced they don’t trade some other guys. Either way, the payroll isn’t an issue in terms of worrying about the money Villar is making. $10M for him, after the season he just had, is peanuts. The reality is that he probably isn’t a 4-win player but he should still be worth $10M or more for the next few seasons. Going back to the Cashner deal, if that is all you can get for him, that is certainly far better than a non-tender. At least you end up with some lottery tickets that could become something for your organization.

Another thing to consider is the idea that if you can’t trade him, that putting out someone who can actually play the position(s) is the way to go. The Orioles can use Hanser Alberto at second and see what he can do for another full season. But at SS, you have nothing. They tried out Richie Martin and while he flashed some talent here and there, he clearly isn’t ready (despite improvement during the year) and it is quite likely he’s never going to be someone you want to rely on.

The Orioles 2020 won’t be a good team next year but I do feel you will see improvement; and if you can’t get value for him, you keep him just so you have a better product on the field.  Obviously, if you trade him, that likely makes you worse in the middle infield but it frees up money to allow you to do some other things, perhaps taking on a contract in order to get a better SS (for example).  The goal for next year should be to be a better team. I’m agreed with anyone who would argue Villar doesn’t have to be on it for the team to be better.  Still, I would rather him be out there for $10M than him essentially cut for nothing.

Beyond that, you have nothing in the minors to come up and help you in the MI, especially at SS. Furthermore, there is very little available in free agency and what is available, you likely have to pay up for anyway. Perhaps you can get Starlin Castro (who is really a 2nd baseman, not SS) cheap and see if he can jump start his career out of the pitcher’s park in Miami but outside of that, the options are either expensive or just not good.

The lack of options doesn’t mean I think they should keep Villar. It’s quite the opposite, I think they have to trade him. I can’t imagine his value being any higher than it is right now. But trading him for value and letting him go for free are two different things. If you are choosing between the two, you keep him and hope he continues to play well and then look to move him in July. In fact, the lack of good options in the middle infield is a big reason as to why he should be able to be dealt.

Mike Elias is a smart guy who seems to understand value, so I don’t think the idea of non-tendering him is on the table. On top of that, even if ownership wants his salary off the team, I think Elias’ voice carries enough weight to where he can tell the Angelos brothers that we can’t let him go for free. Saying that, it’s now three local beat writers (MASN’s Roch Kubakto being the other) who have mentioned the idea of non-tendering Villar. That does make me worry that they have people in the organization whispering in their ears that it is possible that this happens. If it does, it would be an incredibly poor move with zero justification behind it.

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Earlier in the season, his name came up in trade talks and Mike Elias talked about how the Orioles weren’t looking to trade him. He has never ruled it out but he has seemingly also not been overly active in looking to deal him either. Of course, we don’t really know what is going on behind closed doors and perhaps he did shop him and just didn’t get the offer he wanted. I would have to think his value will be higher this offseason than it was at the deadline. Teams could have been skeptical of him and wanted to see how he ended the year. Well, he has ended it very well and been pretty consistent all season. His OPS in the first half of the year was 868. In the second half, it has been 867. His wOBA and wRC+ are also off by 1 point (higher in second half for both stats).

This offseason will be his first year of arbitration. He will likely see his salary go into the range of 4 million or so. According to fWAR and how it is calculated, he has been worth 20M so far this year, with that being brought down partly because of poor defensive stats in the OF. He likely won’t play in the OF anymore unless it’s in a pinch, so it’s possible his WAR numbers increase, assuming his offense stays closer to the level it has been this season.

With all of that as a backdrop, the question is, why should they trade him? He is on the right side of 30, is still cheap (even with his salary jumping up this offseason), has seemingly settled in at first base, is viewed as the current face of the franchise and he has embraced this season and all that has come with it thus far. He also is on pace to play 150+ games for the 2nd time in his 3-year career and the year he didn’t, he played 147 games. He has been everything you want your best player to be. For me, all of that is great to see but I would look to move him this offseason for many reasons.

While he is on the right side of 30, he also turned the magical age of 27 before the season started. That still remains the peak age in baseball, at least historically speaking. Obviously, guys can have monster years well beyond 30 but this is still the peak age. Combine that with the idea that he had a 715 OPS last year, and an 826 OPS in 2017. His career MiL OPS was also 826. So, it is likely in my opinion that this will be his best offensive season. That doesn’t mean he won’t be good going forward, just that an 850+ OPS season isn’t likely IMO. I also personally don’t view him as a guy I would want to extend. I think he’s a good player that has a really good idea of what he is doing at the plate but I don’t view him as ever being more than a 2.5ish WAR player and I don’t want to sign him for 4+ years, taking him into his 30s, to give us that kind of production at best. On top of all of that, the Orioles have Ryan Mountcastle ready to come up. I view Mountcastle in a similar way I do Mancini. The difference is Mountcastle is 5 years younger and will make about 1.75M combined for the next 3 years. And yes, it is true that we can have both on the team and that wouldn’t be a bad thing but the Orioles have other guys they like that can DH and play in the corner OF positions.

The question is, what would you expect to get for him in trade? For me, I have talked about getting something along the lines of the equivalent to a Yusniel Diaz/Mountcastle level talent and a guy like Baumann (to give you an Os example). In other words, a prospect that would be ranked in the 70-100 range and another organizational top 10ish prospect. I am also open to deals where we can get lower level, high upside prospects. Last year, I had wanted May and Lux in a Machado deal. At the time, neither was a Top 100 prospect. I also wanted Deivi Garcia in a Britton deal. So, if you have earmarked a few guys like that, I am all for taking those players. With age and salary on his side, several teams could be after him this offseason. His slugging% is currently better than all but 4 teams in terms of what they are getting from first base. His wOBA and wRC+ would put him around 7th amongst those teams. Obviously, not every one of those teams would go after him but it gives you an idea of how good his offensive season has been this year.

As always, the caveat to this is that you only trade him if you get a good offer. You don’t just give him away. You can still hold onto him and keep shopping him or just keep him for at least 3 more seasons. He certainly is the type of guy you like to have on your team for all the reasons I laid out previously. I just happen to believe in the idea of trading a guy 1 year early as opposed to one year too late and I feel that if we hold onto him, we will continue to see him be a good player but one that isn’t worth what he should be worth this offseason.

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Trey Mancini is having a very nice offensive season. His OPS is currently 880, which is well above his career best, set a few years ago. His walk rate is the highest of his career. His K rate is the lowest of his career. His ISO is at .245, which is .71 higher than last year. His wRC+ is 128, which is in the top 20 in the AL. His wOBA is also top 20 in the AL. He is 21st in BA and 30th in OBP. He is 8th in the AL in slugging and 15th in homers. Safe to say, he is having a top 20 offensive season in the AL this year. Considering the poor year, he had at the plate last year, he has really solidified himself as one of the better all-around hitters in the AL this season. He has made himself a great trade asset or he has shown the team that he has a chance to be a potential core piece moving forward.

Renato Nunez was a highly regarded Int’L FA. The A’s gave him over 2 million dollars but he never quite lived up to the hype. With the Orioles now, he is getting a chance to play almost every day and now, the team seems committed to giving him a chance to earn his third base job back. Scouts are mixed on Nunez defensively at third but UZR and UZR/150 liked him at third last year, albeit in only 540 innings. At the very least, he has earned the chance to win that job. He dealt with an arm injury earlier this year and it prevented him from being at third but now, he appears to be healed and is ready to take that job from Rio Ruiz who, while decent with the glove, fails to carry much value overall. The reason the Orioles want Nunez to be at third (and succeed obviously) is because of the power bat he brings to the lineup. Nunez is currently 7th in the AL in homers, 21st in slugging and 9th in ISO. He is also in the top 35 in wOBA and wRC+. He is also 36th in doubles and considering he has 30-75 less at bats compared to many of the hitters in front of him, his numbers are pretty good comparatively speaking. If he is able to play an adequate third base, he will start living up to the hype that caused the A’s to shell out 2+M for a 16 y/o. Also, his BB rate is rising and he has a decent split between his BA and OBP. If he can improve his contact rate more and get that BA up into the 260-270 range, he could be become a very good asset and core piece.

Anthony Santander was a Rule 5 pick who came here with the reputation of having a good bat and a poor glove. He had a shoulder injury before the O’s got him and spent a lot of time on the DL in his first season in Baltimore. Last year, the O’s had to hide him for the beginning part of the season because of the amount of time he needed to accrue on the Major League roster before he would have had to have been offered back to Cleveland. While holding him here, Santander was one of the worst players in the league. His sub 550 OPS and mediocre defense wasn’t exactly the stuff stars are made of. However, he went to the Minors and was called up earlier this year. So far, it appears that whatever work he put in has paid off. He is batting just under 300 and has an OPS of 833. He has 14 extra base hits in 164 plate appearances. That is a pace of 51 extra base hits over the course of a 600 PA season. That make him a mid 20s homer and doubles guy. In a small sample size of defense in RF, UZR and UZR/150 like his defense but those same stats hate his defense in LF. Bottom line is he would be on this team for his bat and if he can continue to be a power bat that brings a good BA/OBP to the table, he can be a solid role player and perhaps starting DH for this team. Chances are he would be more of a 350-450 at bat platoon guy but for someone who isn’t making much money, he would provide very good value for that. All contending teams have cheap role players that they can lean on to play 3-4 times a week and, if they have injuries, step in and play every day for a few weeks. SanTanDare could be a player like that for the Os.

In June, the Orioles drafted Adley Rutschman with the #1 pick. When that happened, it seemed to start a clock for Chance Sisco and that clock was either going to be set to trade or a change of position. As of now, he remains at C and has turned himself around. After a very disappointing 2018 and a bad start to this year, Sisco rebounded in AAA and has not stopped since he came to Baltimore. With an OPS of 885, an OBP over 360 and a slugging over 500, Sisco is looking like one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. Of course, it is a small sample size of plate appearances at this level thus far but he has almost always been a player that had a good bat. He is showing more power this year than he has shown, which is a good sign and perhaps one that says if you move him to another position, his bat could play there as well. His defense remains a question mark behind the plate but as long as he continues to hit, he will be an asset up here, whether as a Baltimore Oriole or as a piece in a trade.

John Means has gone from not being a Top 30 prospect in our system to being an All-Star. His ERA is Top 10 in the AL amongst starters with 80 or more IP. He is missing bats although his K rate is just okay. His BB rate and his K/BB ratio are very good. His HR rate is high, much like seemingly every pitcher in MLB this year. Some of the peripheral stats say he has been lucky (see his 4.37 FIP and 5.35 xFIP) and I am not convinced he is anything more than a mid-rotation guy and probably not quite that but if he can give you 140-160 innings of 4.50 ERA baseball, that is pretty valuable, especially at 500K a year. It will be interesting to see how he ends the year as teams start to see him multiple times.

An under the radar pickup for the pen this year was Shawn Armstrong. Armstrong was a guy I had wanted the O’s to trade for several years back. He had good minor league stats and looked to be a guy that could be a solid ML arm. He hasn’t shown that yet in his career but he is showing some signs here in Baltimore. His ERA is only 4.15 as an Oriole but most of that damage was done in two outings, where he gave up 7 runs in 3 innings. He has a 2.70 ERA in his other outings. His K rate is 11.28 as an Oriole. He misses bats at a rate of well over 20% (using swingstr% on BR) but he has to throw more strikes. His BB rate is close to 5 as an Oriole. He has also given up 4 homers but I am less concerned about that as I am the walk rate. He has only given up 21 hits and it’s not like he has a stellar defense behind him either. He has the chance, if he can throw more strikes and get his walk rate closer to 3, to be a very solid reliever IMO. He won’t make much money for a while, so to be able to have him cheap and providing good production out of the pen would be huge for this team. With Givens likely gone before the deadline passes next week, Armstrong could be given more high leverage situations. It will be interesting to see how he handles those and if he can be part of the bullpen going forward.

In a season like this, the silver linings will be few and far between but if the Orioles are able to come away from this season with some solid long-term pieces, it will make you feel better about where the team is going forward and perhaps, they can be building blocks to get us into contention quicker than most anticipate.

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