Steve Birrer | Baltimore Sports and Life

USMNT – Group Stage Review and Knockout Prognosis

Steve Birrer — Mon, 29 Jun 2026 17:25:23 +0000

The Group Stage for WC 2026 has been completed and it been entertaining and full of surprises. Before we dive into a look at Group D and how the USMNT played lets take a look at the rest of the tournament. For me, as a diehard fan and an American the most inspiring thing has been to follow all the social media posts from visitors and talking to the Aussies first hand in Seattle. I have really enjoyed the travel stories from German soccer fan FreddyLA7. Taking a 6 week tour of the US during the WC and hitting up places like Waffle House and Buc-Ees has just been hilarious. Good stuff. Ok now to some actual game related things.

First no surprise, they have already broken the all time WC overall attendance record surpassing 3.6 million fans through the first 60 matches. The 1994 WC, also held in the US still holds the record for average attendance/match at 68,991 fans while, so far this tournament has averaged 64,270 fans/ match. And it should be noted that the 1994 WC only had 24 teams so the overall quality of the teams was a bit higher than the current 48 team tournament. However, I think its fair to say that all the pre-WC bashing about how attendance was going to be terrible due to so many more teams and much less quality has proven to be false.
While we are talking about the 48 teams just how has that worked out. Certainly its a bit subjective but IMO its played out pretty well. There is no perfect answer when trying to balance fan interest, quality of competition, and FIFA’s drive to make money. But its been successful enough that the die hard fans are just going to have to accept that this is the way its going to be. Here’s some of the interesting things that happened during the Group Stage.
Its hard not to put this at the top of the list. First time participant, Cabo Verde, with a population just over 500,000 people qualified and has actually advanced to the Knockout Stage. Prior to the WC most fans couldn’t even tell you where Cabo Verde is. But all they did was manage 3 draws in their 3 matches including a stunning 0-0 draw with one of the pre-tournament favorites, Spain. That was good enough to get them second in Group H. Who saw that coming!! Now they get to play Argentina in the Round of 32 and don’t expect the fairy tale to continue. But, hey they play the games for a reason.
Speaking of Group H, Uruguay, the #16 ranked team in the world got grouped. Their Federation was so pissed that they cancelled the teams charter flight home and required the players to take commercial flights home instead. Ouch.
The leader board for all time goals scored in the WC is taking on a new look now. Thus far Lionel Messi (Argentina) has scored 6 goals to take the all time lead at 19. He has played in 6 WC and a total of 29 matches for far. Kylian Mbappe (France) has scored 4 goals thus far to move his total to 16. This is only his 3rd WC and he has scored those 16 goals in onlyl17 matches. Also at 16 is the pre-tournament leader, Miroslav Klose (Germany). Klose played in 4 WC (the last being in 2014 and tallied his goals in 24 matches. So Messi has the total lead, but if you look at it on a goals/match basis, Mbappe is the best. But we should also mention two other players on the all time list that are still playing. Harry Kane (England) has 11 goals all time including 3 so far this tournament and right behind him with 10 goals is Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) who has 2 so far this time. Messi, Mbappe, Kane, and Ronaldo aren’t done yet either.
And of course the tournament, like all of them has had it share of controversies. We are not going to even give credence to any of the conspiracy theories being floated. Bunch of nonsense dreamed up by the media to ..well never mind. I am not going to go there. But there are two subjects that do warrant a little attention:
First off, the structure of the tournament with 48 teams has created a bit of an issue. Perhaps its minor but it is real. And that is the scheduling given that 8 of the 12 groups 3rd place teams advanced. When only two teams in a group advance the fairness aspect was easily dealt with. Matchday 3 for each group had both matches being played at the same time so that no team had any type of an advantage knowing exactly what result they needed to advance. But its a bit different in this format because going into Matchday 3 teams didn’t really know what result was needed. The later groups however did have the extra bit of knowledge of the groups that had already played Matchday 3. With 48 teams there is just no way to overcome this. Some pundits are suggesting that perhaps the right answer is to expand to 64 teams. 16 groups of 4 and back to only the top 2 advance. I understand the logic here but at some point the tournament quality has to drop. But then I thought that the quality would drop to far with 48 and that’s not really been the case. One could make a pretty solid argument that the gap between the best teams in the world and the lower echelon of teams is closing. Just ask Spain and Uruguay!
Probably the biggest controversy has been how offside has been called and using the Virtual Assistant Referee (VAR) to make the rulings. Numerous goals have been called back for offside with what seems to be an extremely tight interpretation of just what is offside. The final match in Group K was between Columbia and Portugal. The match ended in a 0-0 draw. But the match was intense and filled with opportunities as the 2 sides combined for 37 shots. But neither side could find that magic bullet until the final minutes when Colombia slotted home a header for what appeared to be the game winner. But the AR raised the flag for offside and VAR confirmed the player was off. Literally by a toe. Here’s the replay and the VAR picture.

The use of VAR for offside has been a hotly debated topic for years now. There have been numerous attempts to try and come up with a better solution but thus far no perfect answer has arisen. Now we can bitch and moan about VAR and how can a guys toe make them offside. But it IS objective. There is no interpretation to be made. The technology is concise. The problem arises, of course, from what the intent of the Laws of the Game meant. The purpose of offside was to prevent an attacking player from gaining an unfair advantage due to their position. Does a guys toe being 2 inches offside really give them an advantage? Hardly. But the problem with most all of the solutions out there is that they add back in subjectivity which was the main reason for VAR in the first place. To remove the subjectivity. The biggest league in the world, the English Premier League has been trying an approach they call the zone of tolerance. Well that hasn’t been very well accepted either. Then you have long time Arsenal manager, Arsene Wenger, who has suggested that the rule be that to be offside there must be clear daylight between the bodies of the players in question. The concern raised with this approach is that it may give too much of an advantage to attacking players. But it would be objective in nature. Replay would show daylight or it wouldn’t. But I think I have an alternative that may be a solid compromise. Use the same approach that is used for keepers when they move to try and save a penalty kick. In that rule, keepers are allowed to move prior to the ball being kicked as long as one foot touches the goal line. They can take a step out but the back foot must still be touching (or be behind) the goal line when the ball is kicked. Apply a similar approach to offside. The attacking players front foot must be in contact with the VAR drawn offside line. This would still be objective but remove the ticky tacky offside for a toe. And create a “zone of tolerance” that is objective.

Round of 32 Projections

Here’s my cliff notes projections for this round. I’ll give you my pick and confidence level for each of the 16 matches.

Canada vs South Africa – Canada. CL is 6. Ok this one was yesterday but it went about as expected.

Brazil vs Japan – Brazil. CL 6. Both sides have looked solid but Brazil has more talent.

Germany vs Paraguay – Germany. CL 7. Paraguay’s defense has slipped a bit and the German attack is tied in goals with 10 (France and the Netherlands).

Netherlands vs Morocco – Netherlands. CL 5. This should be one of the tightest matches this round and could go either way. I just like the Dutch quality a bit better.

Ivory Coast vs Norway – Norway. CL 7. Norway has Eerling Haaland and they are well rested having the starters sit out the last match. Ivory Coast has the team speed to keep them at bay.

France vs Sweden – France. CL 7. I don’t think the Swede’s defense can stop Mbappe.

Mexico vs Ecuador – Mexico. CL 7. Mexico was gifted an easy group and won it going away. But they haven’t looked that good and haven’t been tested. I think they make it past this round.

USA vs Bosnia Herzgovina – US. CL 8. More on this later.

England vs Congo DR – England. CL7. The Three Lions havent woken up yet. They do in this one.

Belgium vs Senegal – Belgium. CL 5. This is THE match for US fans to pay attention to as we play the winner of this one. This is going to be close.

Spain vs Austria – Spain. CL 8. Spain hasn’t allowed a goal yet. This might not change in this match either.

Portugal vs Croatia – Portugal. CL 6. Portugal hasn’t lived up to the hype yet and Croatia has tons of experience at the WC. This will be a fun one.

Switzerland vs Algeria – Switzerland. CL 8. Swiss just take care of business in this one. A bit too tall of a task for Algeria.

Australia vs Egypt – Australia. CL 6. This one is close but Egypt has some injury issues and the overall physicality of the Soccerroos may make the difference.

Argentina vs Cabo Verde – Argentina. CL 9. We’ve seen CV hold Spain scoreless. But that was early in the tournament and Argentina and Messi are on a mission.

Colombia vs Ghana – Colombia. CL 7. Colombia is very strong and this Ghana team isn’t at the level of some of their historically good teams.

USMNT Group D Recap

Not much to add that hasn’t been written and talked about for the last several weeks but here’s my take on how the group went for our guys. Here’s the short answer. Within one minute of just about perfect. The objective at the WC is simple and in this order.

Advance out of your group. And hopefully with no cards or injuries. Check.
Know that you have already advanced after Matchday 2 so you can rest players and clear any cards. Check.
Play you second lineup in Matchday 3 and get them some preparatory minutes for the rest of the tournament. Secondly, get a result. Check and within a minute of checking the last box

US vs Paraguay

The key to an opening match, depending on your opponent, is to come out strong and push them hard if they are a defensive side. Or to weather the storm from a strong pressing opponent until the game settles down. We knew going in that Paraguay was one of the top defensive sides in South America and was going to play a low block and hope to frustrate the US and then score on a counter. Well none of that happened. The US came our firing on all cylinders and won going away 4-1. In fact a poll on one of the major soccer forums ranked this as the most impressive USMNT match EVER. Better than the US beating Portugal at the WC 2002. Better than the 2-0 win over Spain at the 2009 Confederations Cup. That’s some pretty lofty company and well deserved. The only downside of this match was that Christian Pulisic was kicked in the calf and had to come off at the break.

US vs Australia

Going in this was destined to be an entirely different kind of match that the one against Paraguay. Australia had some speedy front runners and was very big in the center back area. That speed and size would be tough to deal with and dangerous on set pieces. The Soccerroos are also very physical and came to play. Being there was clearly the sporting highlight of my life. Just no way to describe the atmosphere. Lumen Field as rocking and the US players sensed something special was going to happen. Early on the Aussies played very physical and made numerous hard challenges that seemed to warrant yellow cards but the Ref was content with just issuing verbal warnings. Thankfully it didn’t get out of hand nor cause us any injuries. Pulisic was surely missed but due to the physical nature of this match it wasn’t all bad to have him sitting out. The US dominated the first half and when Baltimore native Alex Freeman scored the second US goal the stadium literally was shaking to the point where a nearby seismic graph registered it as an earthquake. The US continued to dominate things the first 20 minutes in the second half but after some subs by both sides the boys from down south started to press. But they still never had much of a threat and the Stars and Stripes held on for a 2-0 win. And the best news later that day was that Paraguay had beaten Turkiye meaning the US had won the group and Turkiye was eliminated. Matchday 3 had zero pressure!

US vs Turkiye

So heading into this match the question for both coaches was how they would approach this match. US coach Mauricio Pochettino said before hand that he would not play any of the players sitting on yellow cards but was unclear on the rest. The thinking for Turkiye though was that they might go with all their starters to try and go home with a result. And that is exactly what they did. They ran out their A team. The US meanwhile ran out 10 different players from the 11 that started against Paraguay and the only reason it wasn’t 11 for 11 is that midfielder Cristian Roldan was injured in training and couldn’t go so Weston McKennie started in his place. And the match went about as expected. With the US losing 3-2 on a last minute goal. What was great to see though was the actual play. The US B team had more possession, twice as many shots on goal, and 4 times as many corner kicks. On another day they could have easily won this match. And it gave Pochettino some great feedback on who may or may not be up for playing time in the knockout stages.

Based on that match here’s how I view the substitutes.

Stock up – Sebastian Berhalter, Austin Trusty, and Miles Robinson

Neutral – Brendan Aaronson, Joe Scally, Ricardo Pepi, and Gio Reyna

Stock Down – Tim Weah, Mark McKenzie and Matt Turner

So here we are guys. No more grace period. Perform or go home.

US vs Bosnia-Herzgovina Preview

This match looks to start much like the US vs Paraguay. The US will probably start the same XI they did in that game and why not!. BIH will play a low block and look to counter. Their best chance to score will be on set pieces. They are very good at them so its incumbent upon our guys to not make silly fouls in the final third BIH is well below all 3 of our group stage opponents in FIFA rankings and in fact BIH advanced mostly because they got a free 3 points against Qatar, one of the worst teams in the tournament. Although they did tie Canada 1-1, but I am not sold on this Canadian team much.

How BIH can win:

BIH does not have the talent level of the US. Case in point is one of their forwards Esmir Bajraktarevic. Hes actually a US born player and was capped with the USMNT but field a switch to BIH since he wasn’t going to make the US side. He’s good player but still. BIH can win one of two ways. Keep a clean sheet and score a counter to win 1-0. Or keep a clean sheet and get to penalties where it becomes a crapshoot. Or lastly poor officiating that lets them hack the US with our punishment.

How the US WILL win:

They have too much talent and have proven over the last 2 weeks that they can win pretty. They can win physical. And they can play with anybody. But here’s how I see this going. The combination wing play of Antonee Robinson and Christian Pulisic on the left and Sergino Dest and Alex Freeman on the right is too much for BIH to handle. They are too fast and when you try and cover the outside space they cut inside or find the final third pass to McKennie, Tillman, and Balogun.

Here’s the clincher. They are not only fast but they are in fantastic condition. The US players combined covered more distance during the Group Stage than ANY team in the tournament. If Bosnia keeps their defense packed in tight and lets us have the outside space thinking they can control the crosses here’s what may happen. Pulsic, McKennie, Dest,, and Balogun will get a pass at the outside edge of the 18 then dribble to create space for a shot close in. BIH might have trouble defending that without giving us a penalty. So I think we have the tools to break them down whichever way they go.

Now we have to play smart. We have so show up. But heres’ my prediction:

US WINS 3-1

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World Cup 2026 – USMNT and Group D

Steve Birrer — Thu, 28 May 2026 19:32:15 +0000

Several weeks ago we took a look at the upcoming WC. The setup for this tournament and how the groups might shake out in what will be the first WC expanded to 48 teams. So there’s no need to go into any backdrop here’s a link if you missed that.

World Cup 2026 – Its Go Time!

Here we are on May 26th and the roster is official. Yes it was leaked several days ago but its here. Its real. And this will be the biggest tournament in FIFA history and it will be at home for the USMNT. This is huge for every nation but even more so for the Stars and Stripes. A dream to be playing the sport you love and here at the highest level. But then its to another level for our guys. Playing at home really is that much more special. Look for sightings of Clutch the Bald Eagle everywhere this summer!

Full USMNT World Cup roster

Goalkeepers (3): Matt Freese, Matt Turner, Chris Brady

Center backs (5): Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson

Fullbacks (5): Antonee Robinson, Sergiño Dest, Alex Freeman, Joe Scally, Max Arfsten

Central midfielders: (4): Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Berhalter

Attacking midfielders/wingers (6): Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Malik Tillman, Gio Reyna, Brenden Aaronson, Alejandro Zendejas

Strikers (3): Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright

And as expected the internet has been lit up for a couple of days now discussing the roster. Who made it. Who didn’t make it. What is Manager Mauricio Pochettino thinking. My overall thoughts but first with a premise. Its easy to get caught up in sports with these kinds of debates. Much ends up centering around a guys personal favorite players and its entertaining but only to a point. Two comments.

No one is more familiar with the players and the tactics planned than the coaching staff. They have access to film, discussion with their club coaches, and most importantly first hand time seeing them in the matches leading up to the WC and what gets overlooked by many fans. At every camp we see the friendlies and how things appear in that 90 minute window. What we don’t see is the week or two of daily training. How the players have adapted to their instructions. How the players have interacted with each other off the field. At the end of the day Pochettino said it simply as this. Our job is not to pick the 26 best players but the 26 players who make up the best team.
The decision has been made. Its time to get behind this team, top to bottom, 100%. There will be plenty of time to question the decisions including what we see in the matches. But save that for after the tournament. Now focus on supporting the USMNT all the way. Do or die its our team and its time to see what we have.

Now with that caveat here’s my thoughts on why some guys made it and some didn’t. Most of the roster names itself. To keep this from being a novel here’s the list of guys that were universally expected on the roster.

Goalkeepers – Matt Tuner and Matt Freese

Center Backs – Chris Richards, Mark McKenzie, Tim Ream, and Auston Trusty

Fullbacks – Antonee Robinson, Sergino Dest, Alex Freeman, and Max Arfsten

Central Midfield – Tyler Adams and Wes McKennie

Attacking Midfield and Wingers – Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman, Tim Weah, and Brenden Aaronson

Strikers – Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Haji Wriight

Thats 19 of 26 players pretty well etched in stone. Yes there was some discussion on Haji Wright but once Patrick Agyemang went down with an Achilles heel injury Wright’s spot was pretty solidified.

Here’s a quick rundown of the remaining 7 players that did make it and several others that didn’t.

Chris Brady – The rules are you must carry 3 goalkeepers. There were a couple of MLS keepers you could have chosen but Brady is a fine choice for the third keeper.

Miles Robinson – The biggest question surrounding Robinson’s inclusion isn’t as much about why him but why 5 center backs. I think the answer is two fold. First Chris Richards is coming off an ankle injury and second Tim Ream is 38 years old. Robinson brings experience and solid defending ability. Should Poch have gone with another Center Mid?

Joe Scally – Not much controversy here. Scall has been a solid player in the German Bundesliga and is a strong defender. Doesn’t offer as much going forward as Dest and Freeman but he’s a better defender.

Sebastian Berhalter – Seb is a solid overall midfielder. Has very good attacking vision and is ok defensively, although it remains to be seen if his defensive skills are up to handling the talent he’ll see at the WC. But there is one key reason he’s on the roster. Historically speaking, about 30% of the goals scored at the WC come from set pieces. Seb has THE best free kick on the roster. Period. And he and Chris Richards have been especially good at teaming up and finding a goal.

Cristian Roldan – Roldan has played his entire career in the MLS. Some fans still want to snub the MLS thinking if you don’t play in Europe then you aren’t good enough. But Roldan is exactly the kind of player Poch likes in his team. The general tactics we employ calls for midfielders with high energy rates and not prone to mistakes. Roldan is very good in both these aspects. The flip side here is that some fans felt we needed a stronger defender and that Aiden Morris or Tanner Tessman, both who have had European seasons might have been a better choice here or chose over Scally. The general concern, and it is valid, is that we may lack cover for Tyler Adams. Tyler likely cant start all 3 group games. We’ll see.

Alejandro Zendejas – This is the one surprise for me. He has not been the best when he’s put on the Nats jersey. But he has been killing it in Liga MX this year and has been one of the best players in that league. He does have solid technical skills and a great shot. Personally I liked Diego Luna in this spot a little more. Zendejas is the more technically skilled player but I think Luna’s energy and the spark he provides would have fit well. This was probably the hardest decision Poch had to make. Which of these two guys to take. Only had room for one and he chose Zendejas.

Gio Reyna – Reyna has had a pretty marginal club career for several years now. Some of that injury related and some of it form related. You can’t look past the fact that he has gone to several different clubs and managers and can’t seem to find the field. But the flipside is that he has still shown quite well when he’s put on the USMNT jersey. He has the attacking vision and technical ability to create some late game magic moreso than most anybody on the roster. He’s the guy who if we are down a goal you bring on for the last 20-30 minutes. Again, I could have taken Luna here but Reyna, when his mind is right, is a very special player.

Before we get to the actual WC matches the US has two friendlies. This Sunday against Senegal and then next Saturday against Germany. Word of caution. Its easy to get excited going into the opening match against Paraguay if we do well in these friendlies just like its easy to go in all bummed out if we don’t do well. Surely we’d rather look good headed to the tournament but the results here can be misleading. The purposes of these friendlies is to PREPARE for the WC and the results are secondary. So why even have them if they don’t mean much and you risk injury? Good questions. Here’s the why behind pre WC friendlies.

The training sessions are used to drill into the players what their roles is, when they are to defend, when they are to attack, who are they providing cover for, who is covering them, etc. And those nuances have to be drilled, drilled, and drilled again. But the bottom line is that you still have to see those instructions play out in actual game situations. You can simulate game pressure in training sessions but its not the same as when facing an opponent. Getting a team all on the same page is job #1 heading into the tournament.
The training sessions will be conducted with a wide variety of tactics planned to be implemented against the three Group Stage opponents. And like they say in the military the best plans are great until the bullets start flying. The other teams have a say in how things go. The staff needs to test players in certain roles and responsibilities. How quickly do they adjust real time when those have to change in game because the opponent has thrown a wrinkle at you. Who best fill backups to those players for managing fitness and any card accumulation issues?
Most of these players are coming off long and arduous club seasons. Are they still fit both physically and mentally. Any lingering issues. Who is ready to go multiple 90 minute matches and for those who aren’t what is their expected capacity.

Of course, fans are anxious to watch these friendlies as an expectation on what we might see in our Group Stage matches. Again a word of caution. Most certainly we will get a general sense of how our team is going to play. Will they play 3 across the back? Will they play a 4 man backline with the outside backs pressing into the attack? Who will pair with Adams in the center of the midfield (more on this later as I think this is THE key question heading into the Paraguay match. Will the wingers tend to stay on their ‘appointed’ side of the field or will they freely switch? Will the striker stay solo up top as a target outlet or will they be paired in attempt to widen the defense? So there is a lot to discern from these two friendlies just don’t get fooled into thinking you’ve got it all figured out before the tournament. Almost guaranteed the Poch will not be showing all his cards!

Ok here it is!

Group D

Composite FIFA Ranking – 105. This is the most balanced group in the tournament. Paraguay comes in at 40 and no other group’s lowest rank team is better. While there is no top 10 team since the US, as a host, was seeded in Pot 1, there are no “easy” teams either. This group, top to bottom, is the most competitive.

Australia (30) – Coach Tony Popovich has kept his coaching approach from the Australian League to his national team. Defense, effort, and strong set pieces. And those things tend to make you a tough out in a tournament format. Sure they don’t have any true superstars but they play collectively better than the sum of their parts. And don’t forget in 2022 they made the Round of 16. They are in their 6th straight WC so they know the drill.

Paraguay (40) – They qualified in the toughest Federation in terms of WC qualification of all of them. CONMEBOL Their matches are played in hostile environments, and often at altitude and high humidity conditions. They finished ahead of Bolivia and Chile. In their 18 qualifying matches they only scored 14 goals. Horrible right? But they only allowed 10 leading them to a 7-7-4 record. They will bunker, play a low block, stall and delay, and hope to find a magic game winning goal (most likely Miguel Almiron). Expect to see a lot of draws in this group.

Turkiye (22) – Returning to the WC for the first time since they reached the semi-finals in 2002, they are one of the favorites in this group. They play attacking soccer with outside backs that will push forward to provide numbers in the attack. The downside is that they are then susceptible to counter attacks especially with speed. This team has a bunch of quality players most notably central midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu, Christian Pulisic’s teammate at AC Milan. Their primary attacking threat is Arda Guler, the Real Madrid attacking midfieler/winger. Watch this team when you can. They are not boring.

United States (16) – The pressure on this team to perform is immense. They are stuffed with talent and playing at home. Its not atypical for the USMNT to be playing on US soil but to not have “home field” advantage in many cases. Due to the large migrant population in the US and the need to play at large stadiums to generate revenue they often times play to crowds that aren’t even 50-50 in our favor. That will change during the WC. They should have solid US fan attendance and not grouped with any teams with overly large presence in the US,. The issue for the US has been the opposite of what makes Australia so good. They have a tendency to play to a level less than the sum of their parts. This was especially prevalent during CONCACAF qualifying there the US only finished 4th. However you need to look no further than the FIFA window last November where we beat group mate Paraguay, then demolished the #17 team in the World, Uruguay 5-1. Nobody saw that coming. So the pieces are there, now its up to Poch and the players to put it all together and show up big time on the home world stage.

Now before my overall group prediction lets look at the 3 US matches.

US v Paraguay (June 12th, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles)

Being the first match, coming out strong is important. Paraguay is going to concede possession to the US. Don’t be surprised if we have a 65-35% possession advantage. And expect that the US will have more shots than Paraguay, The outcome of this game will boil down to a couple of keys.

Can the US finish their shots. Winning the game only counts on the scoreboard. Expected goals (xG) is a telling stat, but that’s all it is, a stat.
Does the defense stay home enough or recover fast enough to not get beat by a counter. And if they do get beat, can the US keeper come of with that one big time save?

Prediction – US wins 2-1.

US vs Australia (June 19th, Lumen Field, Seatte)

The second group stage match is oftentimes the most important one. If a team comes out poorly in the first match then they almost certainly need a result in the second one. If they come out strong in the first match they can pretty much assure advancement with a result in the second match giving them the ability to rest or try different tactics and player combinations in matchday 3. But in this WC, this is the most important match for a personal reason. Yours truly will be sitting in the stands! A life long dream come true. This match will go much like the first match. The US is the better side but they must play like it. The Aussies will not sit back quite as much as Paraguay so this could be an exciting back and forth match. Keys for us here:

Control the midfield. Make decisive penetrating passes to Balogun and Pulisic to work for shots inside the area.
Attacking play combinations on the wings. Robinson and Pulisic on the left side and Weah/Tillman and Dest/Freeman on the right side. Get behind the Australian defense and we win this game.
Solid defending on set pieces. Richards and whomever he is paired with in the back.

Prediction – US wins 1-0.

US vs Turkiye (June 25th, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles)

Clearly the marque matchup of the group. There is a strong chance that both teams will have assured advancement so this match could be less exciting than had it been the first match of the group. You usually want to win your group but in a potential situation like this that may not be the priority, If both teams are advancing then:

Rotation to maintaining player fitness and eliminate any card accumulation issues will be a prime consideration.
Winning the group will give the winner a 3rd place group finisher in the first knockout round. But the bracket is set such that winning Group D then your first knockout match leads to a likely meeting with Belgium. Finishing second would give you a tougher first knockout stage match but potentially an easier next knockout match.

Now if one team must get a result then I expect this match to be a slugfest. The team needing a result will attack relentlessly while the team already advanced is likely to rotate heavily and bunker and hope to withstand the pressure.

Now here’s where it gets really interesting. If both teams need a result then this will be a chess match. No team wanting to make a fatal mistake so only probing when they have clear advantage in numbers but not overcommitting to lose defensive shape. All while keeping an eye on the score board to see how the Australia vs Paraguay match is going.

Prediction – I think this has draw written all over it.

So bottom line time for Group D.

Prediction – US wins the group with Turkiey taking second. Australia and Paraguay match is key to which one of them advances out of 3rd place.

If this transpires then the US wins it first knockout match and setups up a rematch with Belgium.

This will be closer than the last time around!

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World Cup 2026 – Its Go Time!

Steve Birrer — Mon, 11 May 2026 14:25:52 +0000

While its only been 4 years since Qatar it seems like forever ago. But in just a month now WC 2026 will kick off. Hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada it will likely be the most well attended WC yet even with the outrageous ticket prices. Before we dive into the actual teams and their groups let take a look at the background for this years event.

The three host nations have a combined 16 venues with the US having 11, Mexico 3, and Canada 2. Here are those venues and the matches they will host.

Mexico

Estadio Azteca (Mexico City) – The obvious choice to hold the first match on June 11th with Mexico and South Africa. The Azteca holds 87,500 fans and will be the first stadium in WC history to host matches from 3 different WCs (1970, 1986, and 2029). They will also host a Round of 32 and a Round of 16 match.

Estadio BBVA (Guadalupe, Monterrey) – This venue holds 53,500 fans and will host the 1000th match in WC history on June 20th with Tunisia v Japan. It will also host Sweden vs Tunisia, South Africa vs Korea Republic, and a Round of 32.

Estadio Akron (Zapopan, Mexico) – The 48.000 seat stadium will host Korea Republic vs Czechia, Mexico vs Korea Republic, Colombia vs DR Congo, and the one of THE marquee matches of the Group Stage in Uruguay vs Spain.

Canada

BMO Stadium (Toronto) – The smallest stadium in the tournament holding just 30,000 fans normally but expanded via temporary seating to just over 45, 700 for this tournament. Canada opens here on June 12 vs Bosnia and Herzegovina and a Round of 32 will also be played here.

BC Place (Vancouver) – A unique venue that has the largest cable supported retractable roof in the world also has a strong history associated with it. The 2010 Winter Olympic ceremonies and the 2015 Women’s WC Final were held here. They will host both of Canadas two home Group Stage matches plus a Round of 32 and a Round of 16 match.

United States

Met Life Stadium (East Rutherford) – The 82,500 seat giant will get to host a total of 8 matches including the Final.

AT&T Stadium (Arlington) – The biggest stadium in the tournament at 92,967 seats will host a total of 9 matches (most in the show) including a Semi-Final. Argentina will play two Group Stage matches here. If you have to ask about ticket prices to these ….well don’t ask.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) – The 71,000 seat stadium will host a total of 8 matches including the other Semi-Final. The artificial turf was replaced by grass in January and will be in fantastic shape for this tournament. The roof will be closed during the tournament to ensure the field stays fresh, And this venue knows how to host a major tournament, having been a major player in Copa America 2024. Not a bad seat in the house as I can attest to first hand (but please don’t bring up US v Panama at COPA).

SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles) – This 70,240 seat stadium will host a total of 8 matches including the US first Group Stage match against Paraguay on June 12. They will also host a Quarter Final match. This stadium is the most expensive stadium ever built at $5.5 B and has a unique grass carpet with LED grow lights running 18 hours/day.

Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City) – A total of 6 matches will be played in this 76,640 seat stadium including Argentina’s first match. Will also hold a Quarter-Final.

NRG Stadium (Houston) – Hosting a total of 7 matches in this 72,220 seat house including two Portugal Group Stage matches, Germany v Curacao, and Sweden v Netherlands as well as a Round of 16 match on July 4th. That will be a special spot to be if you are one of the lucky ones to have snared a ticket. for that day.

Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara) – Hosts 6 matches including a Round of 32 at the 72,000 seat arena.

Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia) – Will host 6 matches including Brazil v Haiti Group Stage but the biggie will be a Round of 16 match on July 4th. Tickets to one of those 69,328 seats are going for some of the most expensive tickets in the tournament.

Hard Rock Stadium (Miami) – This 65,000 seat venue will host a total of 7 matches including a Quarter-Final and the Bronze Final on July 18th.

Lumen Field (Seattle) – 68,740 fans have the opportunity to see one of the 6 matches they will host including the US v Australia match on June 19th. They will also host a Round of 16 match,

Gillette Stadium (Foxborough) – Will host 7 total matches at this 64,628 stadium including a Quarter-Final match.

So now that you know a bit about the where this is all happening lets dive down into just what has changed for this WC, and there are some pretty significant changes this time around.

Of course, the biggest change is that this tournament has been expanded from 32 to 48 teams. After a lot of discussions FIFA ultimately decided to go with 12 groups of 4 teams each. So the good news for soccer fans is that we will get an extra round of matches. In order to get to the normal Round of 16-Quarter-Fianl- Semi-Final-Final route they had to develop a way to get to 32 teams. With 12 groups it means that along with the normal 1st and 2nd place teams advancing that 8 of the best 12 3rd place teams will also advance. In short 32 of the 48 teams will get to play a knockout match! Figuring out just which of the 8 3rd place teams will advance will take some doing. Points earned during the Group Stage will be the starting point but then it gets complicated because its likely that goal differential, scored, allowed will still end up with some ties. So its will take some doing to figure it all out. The side note on this new format is that it really changes the potential for a “Group of Death”. Historically that meant a group where a top quality team was in jeopardy of advancing since there were more than 2 really quality teams in it. With 8 of 12 3rd place teams advancing the chances for a real quality team not advancing is pretty slim. I’ll stick pick a Group of Death but its not quite the same.
The other major change, and this is due partly because of the extra round of matches, rosters will be expanded from the normal 23 players to 26 players. This is a huge deal because it will allow managers to take a fringe player for a very specific set of circumstances that may not have the overall quality to make the roster. This is likely to play a big role in the last couple of spots for the USMNT roster!
To decrease the time wasting that has become far too prevalent a number of changes are being made for this tournament!
A) When players are being substituted, they will have 10 seconds to leave the field of play. If they do not leave within that 10 seconds then the substitute player will not be allowed to enter for an additional minute meaning the offending team will play with just 10 men.
B) There will also be a 5 second countdown for throw ins and goal kicks. If a team fails to take their throw in within the alloted 5 seconds then the other team will be given a throw in. The penalty is even more severe on a goal kick. Don’t take it within 5 seconds? The other team will be given a corner kick.
C) Any player who leaves the field due to injury will have to remain on the sideline for at least one minute. Flopping around like you are dying is going to come with consequences.
The yellow card accumulation rule has been “fixed’. The reasoning being that the Round of 32 was adding too many matches between the accumulation rule gets amnesty. In this tournament yellow cards accumulated will be eliminated after the Group Stage and after the Quarter-Finals. Love it when an idiotic entity like FIFA actually does something smart….lol.

Ok enough backdrop lets get to the Groups and see how things look. Note the parenthetical number behind each team is their current FIFA ranking. Bare in mind that most every league around the world is still actively playing matches and there will surely be some injuries over the next month that will impact a teams roster and their chances.

Group A

Composite RIFA Ranking – 141

Czechia (41) – Their chances will begin and end with midfielder and captain Tomas Soucek. He was the Czechian footballer of the year in 2025 and has both the experience and tactical ability to control the middle of the pitch. If he is on his game and Patrick Schick can find the back of the net they will be in the mix in this group.

Korea Republic (25) – Most soccer fans around the world recognize the name Son Heung-Min, the long time forward for Tottenham Hot Spurs before moving to LAFC. Son leads the MLS in assists this season and is in strong form. He has more national team appearances than anybody else in Korean history and has a shot at becoming their all time leading goal scorer this summer.

Mexico (15) – Whats not to like about a team that gets to open the tournament in their home stadium as the Azteca becomes the first stadium to host matches in 3 WCs? The flip side is that there will be an enormous amount of pressure on the Mexican side to have a great showing this summer. They will be the clear favorite in their groups lead by Raul Jimenez. The 34 year old striker doesn’t seem to be slowing down having scored 9 times for his club team, Fulham, this season. If he continues to score Mexico will be in great shape.

South Africa (60) – The biggest issue facing the Bafana Bafana this summer is just overall squad talent and depth. They have a very fast striker in Lyle Foster, who is going to be hard to contain. The issue is do they have the playmakers to actually get him the ball in dangerous areas? The likely role for them this summer is one as spoilers.

Prediction – Mexico wins the group. South Korea takes second. Czechia is in 3rd with a good chance to advance.

Group B

Composite FIFA Ranking – 169

Bosnia and Herzgovina (65) – The deal with this side is that they are physical and like to play quickly down the wings. They can catch you sleeping on the counter if your defense doesn’t keep its shape and focus. Interestingly enough one of their best players is Emir Bajraktarevic from Appleton, Wisconsin. The 21 year old came up playing in the MLS Academy system and with the US youth national teams but never quite made the transition to the USMNT and has played internationally with the home country of his parents. Nicknamed the Milwaukee Messi, he will get lots of attention this summer.

Canada (30) – Much like Mexico they are under a lot of pressure to perform this summer. They are playing at home and they have probably the best roster they have ever fielded. Certainly the most athletic. With stars playing in Europe such as Aphonso Davies, Johnathon David, and Tajon Buchannon they are expected to get the job done in their group. The question for them is two fold. One, will Davies be fully fit having been plagued with injuries the last two seasons? Secondly, will they play to their potential for stumble like they have a history of doing in big moments? The good news for Canadian fans is that they got a very favorable group. To not advance would be an big pie in their face. Update: Potential bad news (really bad news) for Canadian fans. Bayern Munich just confirmed that Alphonso Davies has suffered an injury and is out at least several weeks putting his WC availability in question.

Qatar (55) – If you follow international soccer at all you’ll know that Qatar is not a team filled with stars or deep in overall talent. However, and its a pretty big deal, most of their players come from the same domestic league and are very familiar with playing with each other. One of the issues that national teams always face going into a tournament is the short amount of time for everybody to get on the same page. Qatar and other nations like them don’t have this issue.

Switzerland (19) – The Swiss play a very tight and compact approach to the game. They are rarely out of position and rarely make mistakes. That’s a great combination to have especially once you reach the knockout stage, Their bread and butter is in the midfield with Granit Xhaka and Michel Aebischer. If they maintain possession when pressed they will create problems for you.

Prediction – Switzerland wins the group. Canada and Bosnia should take 2nd and 3rd although that could flip but both likely advance. Qatar goes home.

Group C

Composite FIFA Ranking – 140

Brazil (6) – What can you say about the 5 times winner? Just look at their roster and you seen names like Casemiro, Danilo, Fabinho, and Junior. Just to name a few. And are they deep? Well there’s another name yoiu will recognize in Neymar. There is a chance he may not even make the roster! Now some of that has been his injury bug the last few seasons but still hes Neymar. How good is a team that could even think about not taking him even if he’s not fully fit. Well that’s how deep and good they are.

Haiti (83) – Making only their second WC appearance (1974 in Germany) they will run, run, and run some more. Unfortunately they got an awful draw and the chances of them doing much are slim to none. They just aren’t good enough. In fact under the old 32 team format they wouldn’t be there.

Morocco (8) – These guys are good. As in really good. They tend to play very defensively led by a world class defender in Achraf Hakimi. And then when they have lulled you to sleep they counter and you find yourself down a goal. And that counter? Well just might be led by Hakimi. He is dangerous all over the field and at 27 is in his prime. They should advance and might win a knockout match or two.

Scotland (43) – Making their first WC in 28 years they are the poster child of a team who is better than the sum of their parts. Yes they have some quality internationals like Scott McTominay and Andrew Robertson. But what they really have is a collective of guys that manager Steve Clarke has playing within themselves and keeping to their roles. Do your job, do it well, and do try and do more than you should. Its an approach that holds a team together when facing tougher opposition. Unfortunately for the Scots they got a terrible draw and at best hope to get a 3rd place advancement.

Prediction – Brazil wins, Morocco takes second, and Scotland takes third with fingers crossed they get to move forward. Haiti gets a plane ticket home.

Group D

You’ll have to wait for this one. There will be another article detailing the USMNT and this Group once the final US roster is announced. And no not even any hints. Just hope we make it through the next month without any big injuries.

Group E

Composite FIFA Ranking – 149

Cote d”Ivoire (34) – An interesting side. They are coming in having won the AFCON 2024 with a strong physical approach and a midfield block (which not a lot of teams use as it requires immense conditioning). The big advantage to a midfield block is when possession is obtained a quick transition only has to travel short distances before already being in the attacking third. The key here is the center back pairing of Evan N’Dicka and Odilon Kossounou. These two guys are big, very good in the air, and comfortable with the ball at their feet. How good is their defense? In 10 qualifying matches they allowed zero goals. Not that’s not a misprint. Zero.

Curacao (82) – A tiny little country that sometimes punches above its weight. They are the smallest country both in terms of land mass and population to ever reach the WC. But don’t be fooled. The majority of their players are based in the Netherlands. They are tactically and technically better than you’d think. The issue is in a long tournament that they may not have the depth to hold up.

Ecuador (23) – Ecuador will defend. Defend some more. Then have one moment of attacking speed and down you do. They finished 2nd in CONMEBOL qualifying ahead of Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay. In 18 matches they only allowed 5 goals. In a Confederation that is probably the second toughest in FIFA. These guys are talented across the board. Their issue is that if they don’t lull their opponents into a momentary lapse then they have trouble scoring and at the end of the day 0-0 draws won’t get you far. But if you give them that moment then Moises Calcedo may just punish you. He plays very deep for an attacking midfielder which sometimes lets teams overlook him. That can be a misstake.

Germany (10) – Germany has gone out of the last two WCs at the Group Stage. Unheard of for one of the long time powerhouses. Some of that is attributed to just a slight downcycle in their talent level but some also due to the overly possession driven approach of then manager Joachim Low. But Low is long gone and Julian Nagelsmann has returned them to the more vertical attacking style they are historically known for, With talent the likes of Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, kai Havertz, and Joshua Kimmich they are a team that can beat anybody at any time.

Prediction – This is a tough group to call. Germany should win the group with all that attacking talent. But both Ecuador and Cote d”Ivoire could challenge and all three should advance. But Curacao could pose some upset challenges in this tougher than it looks group.

Group F

Composite FIFA Ranking – 107. This is my choice for the Group of Death. Any one of these teams is capable of going on a two week run and winning the group.

Japan (18) – Back in March they traveled to Scotland and England for friendlies. They won both of these matches. They are one of the most misstake free teams out there. They simply don’t give opponents easy chances. They are equally capable of playing possession against weaker teams or using a low block against teams that are very good in possession, such as the Netherlands. Japan’s one potential weakness is by going over the top of their back 3. While they are solid defenders their recovery speed is a bit lacking and they can be bear over the top.

Netherlands (7) – The side that booted the US out in WC 2022 and they are as solid as ever. They have pair of elite defenders in Virgil Van Dijk and Jurrien Timber. And Virgil is very dangerous on set pieces. If you let him get space in your box he will score a header. In the attack Cody Gapko and Memphis Depay provide plenty of scoring punch at the other end of the field. The Dutch are one of the sleeper sides with a chance to take it all.

Sweden (38) – while not as strong as the Women’s side the Swedish men still have a lot going for them not the least is coming back from adversity. They finished dead last in their qualifying group and their coach was fired. They hired Graham Potter on a short term deal and via Nations League earned a back door shot in the playoffs. They went on to beat Ukraine and Poland in the playoffs to earn they way in and a nice contract extension for Potter. How they fare this summer will rely a lot on the health and form of Viktor Gyokeres the Arsenal forward. If hes fit and up to speed he can score on anybody in the world.

Tunisia (44) – This marks the 3rd straight WC for them and they actually beat France in the final Group Stage match in 2022. Now sure, the French were rotation their squad as they had already advanced but still. In attacking play they rely mostly on some individual skills of a few players to make some magic happen and Hannibal is the guy. He can beat pressure on the dribble to find a shot or the final third pass. They are fun to watch and make this a very competitive group.

Prediction – I think the Netherlands and Japan go 1-2 but third place is wide open and if one of the two big dogs stumble the door is open for a big surprise in this group. For you gamblers this is not a group I would sink my money toward. For example Draft Kings has Tunisia as only +900 to win the Group.

Group G

Composite FIFA Ranking – 144. My choice for the easiest group. I think both Egypt and Iran are oversold. Belgium should cake walk through this one and be well rested for the knockout stages.

Belgium (9) – For the last several WCs the hope was the Belgium’s ‘Golden Generation’ would produce a winning cup. It didn’t happen and most of those players are no longer in the picture. However the midfield engine that drove that train is still there and still a top flight player. Kevin de Bruyne is still one of the worlds top playmakers and Belgium thrives on up field pressure to win balls in dangerous positions. And when that happens they have an very dangerous attack. Romalu Lukaku is still around and still a tough physical presence in the box. But the real danger is with winger Jeremy Doku. If you watched the March friendly between Belgium and the US the game was closer than the score indicated. But Doku was an absolute terror down the left wing. Playing in a fairly weak group Doku could light up the score sheet.

Egypt (29) – Their fortunes will lie with the pair of forwards in Mo Salah (Liverpool) and Omar Marmoush (Manchester City). Salah has had a bit of a bumpy EPL season falling out of favor for the Reds and was seeing less than expected playing time. However, he has factored in much more of late and is playing well. Marmoush is flies a bit under the radar because he plays for City behind such stars as Erling Haaland and Phil Foden. Don’t let the lack of news coverage mislead you. He’s a top flight attacker. Egypt is likely to get their first ever WC win this time around. Key match for them is against Iran.

IR Iran (21) – Makes their 4th straight WC appearance and finished atop their federation qualification. They are very experienced and won’t be overwhelmed by the atmosphere. The are stout defensively but its the opposite end of the field where they have some weaknesses. They rely most of their attack on Mehdi Taremi. And he is good, but the question is he good enough over the course of a long tournament to carry the load. opposing teams will pressure him and physically push him to find out. I think this might be a tough tournament for Iran. The good news is they do get to play New Zealand.

New Zealand (85) – Back to the WC for the first time since 2010 and deserved. They waltz through their Oceana qualifying with ease. Now here’s the flip side. Oceania is the weakest Federation in FIFA. That’s just a fact. Now they aren’t without some talent. Forward Chris Wood scored 20 goals last year in the EPL and the New Zealand attack is built around him. Its also well known by opponents, Deny Wood the ball inside the area and the All Whites will have trouble scoring.

Prediction – Belgium wins the group. The winner of Egypt v Iran takes second (pick Egypt here) and the loser takes 3rd unless the All Whites pull off an upset.

Group H

Composite FIFA Ranking – 139. Second choice as an easy group. Two top tier teams and two lower echelon sides.

Cabo Verde (69) – Its hard not to root for a country of 500.000 people making their first trip to the WC, especially with a nickname as cool as the Blue Sharks. Being a small country without the talent level of most they play defensively to the max as expected. But the good news is that they do it very well and they did beat Cameroon during qualifying. But at the end of the day it will be a pretty amazing tournament if they get a W and won’t be surprising if they lose all three of their Group Stage matches.

Saudi Arabia (61) – The Saudis are another one of those teams that is capable of punching above its weight. Again because they have a roster filled with players that all know each other. Remember this team beat Argentina in WC 2022. That’s the good news. The bad news is that lost during the March window to Egypt 4-0. And Egypt was playing with out Mo Salah raising some pre Cup concerns over their defense. But expect coach Herve Renard to work the kinks out and have them ready for next month. They love to play straight up against their opponents but struggle against teams they employ a low black. Guess what Cabo Verde will do?

Spain (2) – There’s not much to say about Spain. One of the clear favorites to win the whole thing and clear front runners for this group. With winger Lamine Yamal (only 18) and midfield maestros Pedri and Rodri they are as good as advertised. The interesting thing for Spain during the Group Stage is going to be how they manage the workload. They play Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia in their first two matches and should win those easily meaning they could heavily rotate for their final match against Uruguay. This could be a mechanism for Uruguay to actually win the group.

Uruguay (17) -Coach Marcelo Bielsa has his team playing a physically demanding high pressure over the entire field. It works very well and can be modified a bit to fit the opponent. But it is demanding of the players and the question is becoming is he too demanding. Is he asking more of a group of players than they are humanely capable of doing over a long tournament, especially, given the temperatures expected in the US this summer. The Blue and White have two games in Miami and one in Guadalajara. Fans and players alike have legit reasons to question is this is doable. Now the flip side is that they will have a bit more rest between matches compared to what has historically been the case for a 32 team WC. But when you hear long time stars like Luis Suarez publicly expressing concerns, well it gives you pause to wonder if there is more going on behind the scenes than we see?

Prediction – Spain wins and Uruguay takes second (with the caveat that Spain could take a knee during the Uruguay match. Some of that will depend on how their potential opponents would be if they finish 1st or 2nd. Saudi or Cabo Verde will probably need to get a W in their head to head match in order to have enough points to advance as a 3rd place finisher. If they draw it will be hard to move on.

Group I

Composite FIFA Ranking – 103. Most pundits Group of Death. Under a 32 team format this would clearly be the Group of Death as one very good team wouldn’t escape.

France (1) – France won in 2018 and Coach Didier Deschamps is looking for a second WC to cement his legacy as one of the all time best international coaches. And he’s heading to his final WC with his deepest roster yet. Les Bleus are just loaded front to back but its their attack that is just flat out scary. Kylian Mbappe is one of the deadliest scorers on the planet. He’s fast, tactically smart, and technically as good as it gets. And the problem is that since the French are so talented they don’t really assign a general position or area for Mbappe to play. He is free to roam the field to where he sees opportunities. And free roaming players typically require 2 players to shadow them. Which means that some one else, is almost always open. And in this case that someone is likely to be Ousmane Dembele (who is headed to the UCL Final with PSG) or Michael Olise. The later two also present a tactical difficulty for opponents is that they switch between winger and central midfield numerous times during the flow of play. Suffice it to say that defending France is a nightmare.

Iraq (57) – The Iraqis were the last team to qualify for WC 2026 by defeating Bolivia 2-1 in the playoffs. The second time they have made the WC, the last time being 40 years ago in Mexico. Under the guidance of Coach Graham Arnold (who took Australia to the Round of 16 in 2022), they will play a narrow low block. They will succeed possession and allow their opponents to pass the ball ad infinitum around the perimeter, But they will not chase and just sit back and wait for you to make a bad pass and then they will try and counter. But they are by far the weakest team in this group and if they are to get a result its most likely in their first match against Norway.

Norway (31) – Norway last participated in the WC 28 years ago but that all changed on in last November when Erling Haaland scored his 16th goal in qualifying to lead Norway over Italy (in Italy!!) 4-1. Norway represents a team nobody wanted to draw when the drawing was held last winter. Many US fans breathed a sigh of relief when Norway came off the board. Due to the rules about how many teams can be in a given group from the same Federation, there was a good possibility that the we could have drawn the Norwegians. Simply put, Haaland is huge, technically skilled, fast, and a dealy finisher. The question becomes can they hold up defensively playing three tough matches over a two week span?

Senegal (14) – They qualified beating Morocco in the AFCON final in January but what a bizarre match. Coach Pape Thiaw ordered the Senegalese players off the field and into the dressing room after a late match penalty was awarded to Morocco just after a VAR decision overturned the apparent Senegal game winner. However, Sadio Mane refused to leave the pitch and convinced his teammates to come back out of the locker room and continue the match. In the restart, Edouard Mendy saved the Moroccan penalty and Pape Gueye scored what was ultimately the game winner in extra time. Thiaw received a 5 match suspension but it only applies to AFCON matches so he’ll be at the WC. The Federation stripped Senegal of the title and gave it to Morocco ruling that Senegal had abandoned the match (which they did) and therefore forfeited under competition rules. They have appealed but no ruling as of yet, The ruling, which may happen before June, doesn’t impact the WC since both team qualified. Its just a distraction they don’t need.

Prediction – France will win, Senegal takes second and Norway a close third but could push for second. Iraq could provide some excitement but probably doesn’t have enough over 3 matches to garner enough points to advance (unless they beat Norway).

Group J

Composite FIFA Ranking – 118

Algeria (28) – Back after a 12 year hiatus, Algeria is looking to make some noise. They have solid attacking and a midfield that can withstand pressure. The key to their attack is for that midfield to win possession in tight spaces and play the ball wide to their wingers to allow them to go directly at the defense with pace. They are bult around speed but don’t have quite the quality to build slowly or to break down a defense that has time to get set. They’ll be an interesting side to watch. In 2014 they beat South Korea and almost trounced Germany before losing 2-1. Keep and eye on these guys.

Argentina (3) – They won in 2022. They are one of the favorites this time around. And they got a very favorable draw both in their group and the early knockout stages. They are a deep side and in fact so deep that Coach Lionel Scaloni hasn’t even committed to brining Lionel Messi to the tournament and to limit his minutes if he does. I fully expect Messi to be there and given the path Argentina has that he’ll get plenty of rest during the Group Stage and be ready to roll in the knockouts. At the other end of the field, goal keeper Emiliano Martinez is probably the best keeper in the tournament. Deadly front line, solid midfield and defense, and the best keeper. You can do the match.

Austria (24) – Coach Ralf Rangnick is one of the tactical gurus that has developed the modern fast pressing style of play. So goes central midfielder Marcel Sabitzer so will go Austria. Playing the 10 its his vision and passing that will open up opportunities for Marko Arnautovic and Carney Chukwuemeka to find their shots and hopefully goals. The question will be two fold for these guys, First, will Arnautovic’s age (37) catch up to him and how well will Chukwuemeka fit into the Austrian mix as he came up through the English youth system and only got clearance to switch to Austria in March. So while he played for Austria during the March window he has limited caps with the Austrians.

Jordan (63) – While the Jordanians are clearly the weakest side in the group they do have a plan going into the tournament, their first ever WC visit. They are going to bunker especially for the first 20 minutes of their matches hoping to survive any initial onslaught then they will start to counter attack. Its a good plan for a team lacking the technical quality of the other sides and they do have a bunch of players very familiar with each other so if they can maintain their composure and stick to what they are trained to do they might make it hard to break down. Still it will be quite a surprise so if they even earn a point.

Prediction – Argentina wins. Austria and Algeria battle for second. Jordan, like most first time participants, probably goes home pointless but happy to have been there.

Group K

Composite FIFA Ranking – 114. With no teams outside the top 50 and two in the top 15 this will be a tough group but a fun one to watch.This

Colombia (13) – They are coming into the tournament after a fairly dismal March window. Yes you can discount that as they were friendlies but they lost 2-1 to Croatia then were dismantled by a rotated French side 3-1. Yet they have some real horses in their stable and they are still ranked #13. Luis Diaz has been playing lights out for Bayern Munich and has become one of the top forwards in the world. James Rodriguez has a load of creativity in the midfield and at 34 has slowed very little. But that said, the key to their fortunes lie defensive midfielders Richard Rios and Jefferson Lerma. Coach Nestor Lorenzo has the duo playing a double pivot (you may see the US use this at the tournament as well). They will need to quickly win second balls giving them the ability to transition into the attack. Their downfall this past window has been lapses in defensive positioning during set pieces and just plain old mistakes. This will be a team to reckon with in this group.

Congo DR (46) – The last time they were at the WC they weren’t even the Congo DR. They were in Germany in 1974 as Zaire. They are going to play stout defense led by Captain, Chancel Mbemba who anchors the back four. Stellar in the air and lots of high level experience playing for Lille, Porto, Newcastle, and Marseille. Paired with former Manchester United’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka they form the spine of a solid defense. They will have to be at the top of their game given the offensive powers they will face.

Portugal (5) – Portugal comes off a very good showing during the March window beating the US 2-0 and drawing Mexico 0-0 (in a match that wasn’t that close other than the score) and all without Cristiano Ronaldo. This is slated to be CR7s last international tournament and at 41 will do out as one of the all time greats. The question facing Portugal and CR7 is has he fully recovered from the hamstring injury that caused him to miss the match window. The good news is that Portugal showed they can win without him in the lineup. That’s bad news for this group. And beyond the talent and depth they have on this roster they have a coach in Roberto Martinez who is about as good as they come. He’ll have them ready and playing a plan to dismantle their opponents.

Uzbekistan (50) – This will be their first participation at the WC only gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The country is excited as can be for this event and even though they are first timers they have the talent and experience to garner some points. Abdukodir Khusanov is their most notable player playinkg center back for Manchester City. The wealth of experience playing in the EPL and UCL will bring a needed calming affect to this side. Its easy to get caught up in the WC and forget that is still the same game you play in whatever domestic league you play in. He’ll hopefully be able to keep that to a minimum. The key to any chance they have to advance will be to protect their starting XIs fitness in the first two matches against Colombia then Portugal and then put it to the Congo DR. Might be easier said than done.

Prediction – Portugal should win the Group but taking second behind Colombia wouldn’t be a shock. This could be a group that a 3rd place team doesn’t advance out of as its pretty easy to see the DR Congo and Uzbekistan drawing on the final match day and each having but a single point.

Group L

Composite FIFA Ranking – 122. This group MIGHT be tougher than one would think. Its going to come down to how well Ghana comes together under their new coach.

Croatia (11) – Here’s some cool WC trivia. Croatia opens against England. A rematch of the 2018 WC Semi-Final. Luka Modric, the 2018 Ballon D’Or winner and captain of the team that has made the final and the Bronze medal match at the last 2 WCs. Their strength is built around a midfield of Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Mario Pasalic. They are very fluid in their positioning and roles making defending them a big task. That fluidity allows Andrej Kramaric and Ivan Perisic to find space in the final third. They have the ability to maintain possession over any other side in this group. The only question is how well does their aging roster hold up over the grueling climate of a long tournament.

England (4) – Here’s some names that Coach Tomas Tuchel has to choose from in picking a starting XI. Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, Reece James, and some nobody in goal named Jordan Pickford. Across all competitions for the season Kane has played in 49 matches and scored 55 goals. That’s crazy good and if he continues to score at that pace starting on June 17th against Croatia then England will be set up for a deep run. If they get 3 points in that first match then watch out for the Three Lions. They may well go into the final group match having already advanced and being able to mass rotate against Panama and still win the group. I like this team. A lot.

Ghana (74) – Bluntly this is not one of the Ghana teams on the past. The had a horrible March window. No sugar coating it. They lost to Austria 5-1 then Germany 2-1 three days later and they looked defensively disorganized in both matches and promptly fired their coach. They subsequently hired Carlos Queiroz who has a ton of experience coaching in the last 5 WCs. The question is if he’s had enough time to take some raw but undisciplined talent and make them a solid soccer team. Time will tell but they didn’t get a very friendly draw.

Panama (33) – Panama had a solid qualifying campaign and has a string of wins over the USMNT that is hard to explain. But the results were real and the W during Copa America 2024 showed they are able to sustain heavy pressure without wilting. They will need more of that this time as well. Captain Anibal Godoy will have to be at his best and orchestrate a compact unit for them to advance. Criticla to them (and Ghana to for that matter) will be the first match. Panama and Ghana will play each other on June 17th. If one of them wins they have a good shot to advance. If they draw it wil be tough as getting points against England and Croatia will be tough.

Prediction – Interesting dynamic here since the toughest match in the group, England and Croatia, is on match day 1.This means that there’s a solid chance that both of those sides will be playing to win on matchday, That’s probably not good news for Panama and Ghana.

There you have it. A look at what to expect starting June 11rh when Mexico hosts South Africa. This massive event will be broadcast in the US on the FOX family of channels. If you are a soccer nut you’ll OD over this summer. If you were expecting to see a hint about the US, still its a not. Stay tuned and we’ll go over the USMNT and Group D in depth just after the May 26th final roster announcement.

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USMNT – The World Cup Starts Now

Steve Birrer — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 23:53:04 +0000

Yeah, ok the real start date isn’t until our first match on June 12th against Paraguay but bear with me. The reality is that the WC, from a players perspective does start now. Just as Cristian Roldan, pictured above, details here.

And so it should for the fans. Why is that?

This camp and the two friendlies are the last time the players will be together before Mauricio Pochettino has to submit the final 26 man roster to FIFA. The last chance for players to impress upon Poch and his staff and make their case for inclusion on the roster.
These two friendlies are the last time for Poch and his staff to try various tactics (3-5-2 or 4-2-3-1) and lineups against top quality opponents before the show. Yes their are two tune-ups slated in the two weeks prior to the Paraguay match. But the key were there is “tune-ups.” These two matches are to fine tune the tactics planned (which will be based on this camp) and to integrate any players that missed this current camp. This is NOT an opportunity to change directions. Its far too late by then.

So while we may call these friendlies, and yes ultimately the results don’t “matter” these are not your typical friendlies. And yes the results do matter from the perspective that building upon the momentum and progress from last fall is important. The scorelines won’t matter but the storylines will matter…a lot!

Here’s the roster that were included for this camp:

DETAILED ROSTER BY POSITION (Club/Country; Caps/Goals)

GOALKEEPERS (4): Chris Brady (Chicago Fire; 0/0), Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew; 3/0, Matt Freese (New York City FC; 13/0), Matt Turner (New England Revolution; 52/0).

DEFENDERS (9): Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew; 16/1), Alex Freeman (Villarreal/ESP; 13/2), Mark McKenzie (Toulouse/FRA; 25/0), Tim Ream (Charlotte FC; 79/1), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace/ENG; 35/3), Antonee Robinson (Fulham/ENG; 50/4), Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati; 38/3), Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach/GER; 22/0), Auston Trusty (Celtic/SCO; 5/0)

MIDFIELDERS (8): Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps/CAN; 9/1), Johnny Cardoso (Atletico Madrid/ESP; 22/0), Weston McKennie (Juventus/ITA; 62/11), Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough/ENG; 13/0), Gio Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach/GER; 34/9), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders; 43/0), Tanner Tessmann (Olympique Lyon/FRA; 12/1); Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen/GER; 26/3)

FORWARDS (6): Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United/ENG; 56/9); Patrick Agyemang (Derby County/ENG; 12/5), Folarin Balogun (Monaco/FRA; 23/8), Ricardo Pepi (PSV Eindhoven/NED; 34/13), Christian Pulisic (AC Milan/ITA; 82/32), Tim Weah (Olympique Marseille/FRA; 47/7)

What is interesting with this roster was the general agreement across fandom on just who was called in and who wasn’t. In most national team callups the are wild disagreements from the media and fans alike on why so and so was included while favorite players were excluded. That just isn’t the case with this roster announcement. Sure there are some minor squabbles but by and large this roster has been pretty well accepted across the board. I think this represents a couple of key points about the state of soccer in the US.

First, and most importantly, the soccer world has started to firmly believe in the approach being instituted by Poch. And its clear to the soccer world that so do the players. This is paramount to a team being better than the sum of its parts. A problem the USMNT has had for a number of years.
Roster call ups and playing time have been earned not via some perceived hierarchy based on history. Players need to play to their highest ability, take training camps seriously, and be committed to wearing the US jersey.

All in all the players called in are pretty much the player pool to be used for the final roster selection with some notable exceptions. Tyler Adams, Haji Wright, Sergino Dest, and Diego Luna are all missing this camp due to injuries. Had they been fit then they most certainly would have been called in. Two players that were not called in, Yunas Musah and Alex Zendejas, still have an outside shot at getting called in to the final roster pending how the rest of their seasons go and any injuries to other players over the next two months. There is one player who is not in this camp than most fans wanted to see and that is Noahkai Banks, Banks has represented the US at the U-17, U-19, and U-20 levels and has never participated in any German youth internationals. However, since only matches at the senior level cap tie a player, Banks remains eligible for both the US and Germany. Banks was called in to this camp but declined telling Pochettino he is still pondering his decision on which nation he wants to ultimately play for. While understanding that this is a hard decision to make for young players many, including former US star Landon Donavan are very happy with this decisions. In an interview Donavan laid out his thoughts. “It’s clear that the federation is telling him that the door’s still open,” he said. “This is just a classic negotiation, because they’ve left the door open for him. Now he’s like, ‘OK, then I won’t choose. I’ll take my time.’ “They should have said, ‘I need to know right now. In fact, I need to know yesterday. You’re either in or you’re out. If you’re not in, you’re out.'” To make himself clear he added “And I’m not mad at him. He can make his decision. But now, I don’t care about you anymore. I don’t. I don’t care about Noahkai – if he does not want to play for the U.S., totally fine.” And frankly I fall pretty much in line with these comments. I thought he had a real shot to not only make the final roster but to get soem real minutes this summer. Alas that’s not to be.

But the surprise inclusion has to go to Gio Reyna. Reyna has played a whopping total 26 minutes so far this calendar year and has been on the bench for his last 4 club matches and has not seen the field. But he was called in and Poch was clear about his reasoning saying “the possibility, even if he’s not playing too much in his club, [to show he] can be very useful for us. That is our mindset, and the way that we made the decision to bring Gio in this camp…..Gio was fantastic in November with us. I think everyone praised him in his game against Paraguay, and then the way he was involved and committed with the national team. I was really happy in all the aspects, the factors, in which he was involved.” Reyna is clearly a very talented and special player. It remains to be seen if he can continue to ride the bench for his club but then show up so well for the Nats. We sure hope so!!

So there’s a lot at stake for these next two friendlies and both Belgium (FIFA #9) and Portugal (FIFA #6) are taking these pretty seriously as well sending most of their expected rosters for the WC. And fans attending these two matches in Atlanta will get to see two world class teams filled with star players. Belgium will feature well known stars such as Kevin DeBruyne and Romelu Lukaku. Portugal will had a stocked roster including Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao. Unfortunately, US fans will not get to see CR7. Cristiano Ronaldo is out with an injury.

With that just what can we expect to see in these two friendlies. Here’s a shot at two starting rosters and formations we may play in these two matches. To me the most important data point to get out of these two is just who plays the defensive midfield role of Tyler Adams?

4-4-3 vs Belgium

3-5-2 vs Portugal

Why two different formations?

One of the great things about the current roster and its depth is the ability to change tactics and players to best counter the opponent and to keep players fresh during a long tournament. This is really critical for a WC for multiple reasons.

Other than the outlier in Qatar, world cups are played in the summer months where both temperature and humidity can be high. Even though the matches are spaced out this just takes a toll on a players ability to recover and perform at high levels the next match.
Other than UEFA Champions League, this is pretty much the best of the best. Yes expanding this WC to 48 teams will mean that some “weaker” teams will be included. But even then all of these teams have the ability to pull off an upset and will work their opponents hard.

We saw the downfall of trying to play a tournament with minimal roster changes or substitutions the last time around. Yes the Nats advanced but when they got to the knockout stage match against the Dutch it was clear that they were tired both physically and mentally. I think our roster this summer will be in much better shape to handle this.

The coaching staff will learn a lot during the next week on just how the team is progressing, what approach the players can best take, and what tweaks are still needed. Things may change over the next two months based upon how these friendlies go and the rest of the players’ domestic leagues end up but here is my current thinking on our final roster. Note that expanding from 23 to 26 man rosters is a BIG deal. Clearly its huge to the 3 “extra guys” that get included but its also vastly important to the coaching staff in that this gives them some flexibility to take players with a specific purpose in mind that probably wouldn’t be there otherwise. In this case here’s my 3 players who are benefitting from the roster expansion.

Have to start with Gio Reyna. Reyna has played so little over the last 3 years that its hard to see him making a 23 man roster. He’s probably not match fit enough to go more than 30 minutes at this point. But he is a special player and has shown time and again the ability to make that final third pass that’s a difference maker. Given the expanded roster and the schedule its probably safe to take him and train him into playing shape so that by the knockout stage (ok spoiler alert, yes the US will advance) he’s capable of at least 60 minutes.
Sebastian Berhalter is my second choice. Although he’s a solid all around midfielder he has limited experience against top international caliber and is perhaps not someone you want on the field for long stretches. But for all who watch soccer, you know that set piece goals are critical and even more so in the World Cup. About 30% of goals scored in soccer are from set pieces and while the US has several capable set piece takers none of them are even close to the quality and consistency of those taken by Berhalter. He makes the squad. Now in my mind he makes it even on a 23 man squad because of this ability but most pundits had him as one of their first men out.
Patrick Agyeman. Big Pat is probably the guy most unlikely to make a 23 man roster that gets in here. He is not that tactically gifted. He gets dispossessed far too often when he has the ball at his feet. But this dude is a physical beast and is very hard for opposing defenses to handle. He is so strong that it often takes two defenders to handle him and that means somebody near the goal is open. And he’s a monster in the air. There may well come a time when the US needs a goal and you see Berhalter and Agyemang come on to find that magic goal.

Forwards (6)

Locks – Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Christian Pulisic, and Tim Weah

Bubble – Haji Wright and Patrick Agyemang, Alex Zendejas

Projected Final Additions – Wright and Agyemang

Midfielders (10)

Locks – Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Malik Tillman, Brenden Aaronson, Diego Luna, Cristian Roldan, Tanner Tessman

Bubble – Johnny Cardoso, Gio Reyna, Sebastian Berhalter, Yunas Musah, Jack McGlynn, and Aiden Morris

Projected Final Additions – Cardoso, Reyna, and Berhalter

Defenders (7)

Locks – Tim Ream, Antonee Robinson, Chris Richards, Mark McKenxie, Max Arfsten, and Sergino Dest

Bubble – Auston Trusty, Joe Scally, and Miles Robinson

Projected Final Additions – Total crapshoot. Whichever of the 3 above that looks the best in this camp. Gun to head I’d say Scally.

Goalkeepers (3 and this is mandatory per FIFA rules)

Locks – Matt Freese and Matt Turner

Bubble – Patrick Schulte, Drake Callender, and Roman Celentano

Projected Final Addition – Schulte

US vs Belgium March 28th at 3:30 EDT shown on TNT and streaming on Peacock

US vs Portugal March 31 at 7:00 EDT shown on TNT and streaming on Peacock

These are just can’t miss matches. We will see top competition and US players giving all they’ve got to earn that precious final call up.

The post USMNT – The World Cup Starts Now appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 Knockout Phase

Steve Birrer — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 16:57:44 +0000

Back in September we took a look at the upcoming UCL and what to expect. UEFA had kept the new 36 team format which had done away with the Group Stage and instilled a League Phase in which each team played 8 matches (4 at home and 4 on the road). While the new format was met with mixed reviews there were two main complaints with this format.

The draw has always been a critical component of tournament soccer but under the new format it becomes even more critical. While the pots are relatively balanced to even our the strengths of schedule the key difference under this format is not only who did you draw but where! Drawing your tougher matches at home and the easier ones on the road really changes things.
With so many teams involved its very difficult to track just how your team is doing and what it needs to accomplish toward the end of the League Phase. Under the old Group Stage format it was easy to know going into the last couple of matches just what your team needed result wise. And in fact oftentimes teams knew they would advance before the final matchday.

While I have not been a fan of this new format I have come around a bit on this and starting to like it! Lets look at the last match day and use the Real Madrid – Benfica match as an example. Going into the final matchday Real Madrid only needed a draw (and likely a one goal loss) to finish in the Top 8 and automatically advance to the Round of 16. Benfica meanwhile needed a win and some help. The first half was a back and forth affair with each team scoring twice then in extra time Benfica scored again taking a 3-2 lead into the half. At this point Benfica likely needed to score again as they were tied in points with Marseille but behind on goal differential. But try as they might they just couldn’t find goal #4. At the end of regulation the 4th official added 8 minutes of extra time and things started to heat up. In the second minute of extra time Raul Asencio was shown red and Real was down to 10 men. At that point Real was still on track to finish 8th and Benfica was headed home. And of course Real went to full on bunker mode and Benfica just couldn’t penetrate the defense. Then in the 6th minute of extra time Rodrygo was also shown red and Real was down to 9 players. In the 8th minute with the match about over Benfica earned a free kick from well outside the box. The Benfica coach was frantically waving his keeper, Anatoliy Trubin (pictured above) forward. Trubin did not know that Benfica still needed another score. But following his coaches direction he raced up into the Real penalty area and scored a crazy headed to score that crucial 4th goal. By definition “goalie goals” are always very special but this one even more so. Benfica moves on. Real falls out of the Top 8. And Marseille gets sent home. All in a span of the final seconds of the final match.

So yeah its kind of hard not to like something like this. So just who is moving on and how is going home? Lets look at our preseason prediction to see how we did.

Prediction:

Top 8

Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich

Knockout Playoff

Tottenham, Napoli, Juventus, Atalanta, Inter, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club, Villareal ,Bayer Leverkusen, Eintrecht Frankfurt, Borussia Dortmund, Marseille, Monaco, PSV, Benfica, and Sporting CP.

Eliminated

Newcastle, Union Saint -Gilloise, Club Brugge, Ajax, Galatsaray, Slavia Praha, Olympiacos, Copenhagen, Bodo Glimt, Pafos, Kairat Almaty, and Qarabağ.

Actual Results:

Top 8

Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Münich, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Sporting CP, Tottenham

Knockout Phase

Atalanta, Athletic Club, B. Dortmund, Benfica, Bodø/Glimt, Club Brugge, Galatasaray, Inter, Juventus, Leverkusen, Monaco, Newcastle, Olympiacos, Paris, Qarabağ, Real Madrid

Eliminated

Ajax, Athletic Club, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Kairat Almaty, Marseille, Napoli, Pafos, PSV, Slavia Praha, Union SG, Villarreal

So as expected all the big guns advanced and most directly to the Round of 16. And the middle of the pack clubs mostly advanced. And the smaller lesser known clubs mostly are headed home. But they play the games for a reason and there were some surprises so its not hard to see how this format is growing some fan interest.

The Knockout Phase

The draw took place on January 30th and the 8 home and home matches will take place over the next two weeks. The matchups are as follows:

Galatasaray – Juventus

Gala comes in on a 4-0-1 run while Juve has gone 1-2-2 in their last five matches. But Juve has played the much tougher schedule and has the favorable draw starting on the road and playing the second leg at home. And USMNT midfielder Weston McKennie has been a force of late. Look for Juventus to advance.

Monaco – Paris Saint Germain

Monaco has a tough assignment facing perennial Ligue 1 standouts PSG. Monaco comes in on a 2-3-0 run while PSG has gone 3-1-1. These teams are, of course, very familiar with each other playing in the same domestic league so expect it to be a hard fought set of matches. But at the end of the day PSG is going to advance. For US fans, this will be a great time to watch Folarin Balogun to see how he performs against a top side. An in form Balogun will be one of the keys to how well the US does at the WC this summer.

Benfica – Real Madrid

Real as the top of the table for the Knockout Phase was seeded against Benfica. You couldn’t get more drama that this matchup. Real will be hoping mad that they fell out of the Top 8 and even had to play in this round and will be looking for revenge. But Benfica will know they can go toe-to-tow with Real having just beat them. So how does this go? Well two things. First off, don’t expect to see 2 Real Players get red. Secondly, the situation is a bit different than the last meeting. Kylian Mbappe and company move on. Sorry Benfica fans it was fun while it lasted but all good things come to an end. But both sides come in on superb stretches (Benfica 4-1-0 and Real 4-0-1) and as stated earlier they play the games for a reason.

Borussia Dortmund – Atalanta

One of the more toss up matches. Both are playing at a high level. Dortmund having gone 4-0-1 and Atalanta 3-1-1 in their last 5 matches. Dortmund is probably the slightly better club but because of their finish in the League Phase Atalanta has the advantage of playing the second leg at home. That is just a big benefit. But in this case I think Dortmund does well enough at home in the first leg to get a multiple goal victory then defend on the road and secure their spot in the Round of 16.

Qarabag – Newcastle

Neither side has been playing terrific soccer of late with Qarbag on a 3-02 run while Newcastle comes in 2-0-3 stretch. But, and in this case its a big but, Newcastle plays in the much tougher EPL compared to Qarabag and the Azerbaijan Premier League. The Nut Brown Ale are used to playing tough matches with lots on the line. Newcastle advances.

Olympiacos – Bayern Leverkusen

Oly comes in at 2-2-1 while Leverkusen, playing in the much tougher Bundesliga, comes in on a 4-1-0 run. Leverkusen has been playing very good soccer for the last couple of months and with the favorable away then home should hold serve. US fans keep and eye out for #10 Malik Tillman. The attacking midfielder will see plenty of minutes this summer for the Stars and Stripes.

Bodo Glimt – Inter

Bodo Glimt tied for the last spot in with Benfica and with 3 other clubs who failed to advance due to goal differential. Bodo comes in on a 3-1-1 run and are playing pretty good soccer. All things relative are the key here. Inter is hot, hot, hot and are 5-0-0 of late and keeper Yann Sommer has been very good this season, especially in UCL playing all 8 matches and only allowing 7 goals. Inter advances.

Club Brugge – Athletic Club

Brugge surprised many by advancing and actually finished in the middle of the teams moving to the Knockout Phase. Form wise they have gone 4-0-1 compared to Athletic going 2-1-2. Athletic Club is clearly a tougher side and plays in the much tougher La Liga than the Belgian League. But Brugge has faired well against the Spanish club with a 2-2-2 record in their 6 head to head matches. And this match features clubs that both have terrific keepers. Brugge features Simon Mignolet (Belgium) Athletic has Jan Oblak (Slovenia). Any time you have two top keepers facing each other a hot hand can be the difference maker. And both of these keepers are used to big time pressure. What happens when hot hands meets hot hands? The team playing at home in the second leg wins.

The first legs are next Tuesday and Wednesday with the second legs the week after. All the matches will be shown on Paramount Plus. Take a look. Some really good matches but I think the Benfica – Real Madrid match is must see. Can’t possibly have as much excitement and drama as the last meeting. Or can it?

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USMNT – 2025 In the Rear View Mirror

Steve Birrer — Tue, 23 Dec 2025 22:05:08 +0000

Was 2025 a successful year for the USMNT? The short answer is heck yes! But lets go look at the specifics and see how that conclusion is reached. Fundamentally you have to go back to September 10, 2024 when this road began…the day the United States Soccer Federation announced the hiring of Mauricio Pochettino to be the head coach. Pochettino was the first truly high profile coach hired to run the Nats coming in with an incredible resume including 5 seasons with the Tottenham Hot Spurs in the English Premier League. During which time they earned a top three EPL finish for the first time in 26 years and their highest ever finish since1962-1963. Not to mention taking the club to a UEFA Champions League Final, their first ever. So the bar was set and it was set pretty darn high.

When Pochettino was introduced as the new coach he outlined his vision in building the side towards the World Cup 2026, only the second time and the first since 1994. Lookin back at the 1994 WC there is no denying that such an event plays a huge role in expanding the popularity of soccer in the US. In the 10 WCs the US has qualified for their highest finish has been the quarterfinals (2002). Four times they have gone out in the Group Stage and five times they were eliminated in the Round of 16. USSF and Pochettino’s goal for 2026 was to advance out of the group and win at least one knockout round. But how to get there was the question and Pochettino said he believed there were three primary steps (remember that the US was automatically qualified as a co-host and this was very important to his thought process).

Evaluate a large pool of players to learn those players and their capabilities.
Develop those players to the needed quality level for the WC.
Fine tune the players and tactics to build the most cohesive and talented roster headed to the WC.

What many fans failed to understand during the early stages of Pochettino’s tenure was the time needed for each step and why the needed to taken in that order. And that lack of understanding caused a lot of fan anxiety for a long period of time. Snoot on popular soccer forum site had a thread called Fire Pochettino and it was started the day he was hired. Now certainly that originally was done some tongue-in-cheek but got pretty serious.

Lets look back at the early results.

October 2024 FIFA Window

The first two matches held under his reign met with mixed results. A home 2-0 win over Panama then a poor road showing losing to arch rival Mexico 2-0. Some fans were saying that the Panama result was really just the “bounce” you get from a new coach and that the Mexico game was more indicative of how things were looking. And they weren’t looking good. But they were just friendlies so many were on the give it some time side.

November 2024 FIFA Window

This window was the final qualifying for the CONCACAF Nations League so results mattered. The US drew Jamaica and won both matches 1-0 on the road then 4-2 at home. Better but this was a Jamaican team who’s Federation was in shambles so hard to really know that to make of it.

January 2025

Historically the US has held a “camp cupcake” in January so called because its not an official FIFA window and therefor clubs are not obligated to release players. Typically the US has used this window to take a deep dive down into the fringes of the player pool and see if a surprise or two might show up. In this window beat Venezuela 3-1 and Costa Rica 3-0. The naysayers said that this didn’t mean much as the opponents were playing their “B teams”. While correct the flip side was this was more like the US “C team” and they did score 6 goals.

March 2025 FIFA Window

The window the pitch forks came out. The CONCACAF Nations League on the line and a chance for the Nats to win their first trophy under Pochettino. Well it didn’t happen. First losing to Panama 1-0 in SOFI Stadium in LA. While they had some moments they didn’t find the net and lost at home to the Ticos who seemed to have our number of late. Then they lost to Canada 2-1. No excuses. A bad window and many were calling for Pochettino to get fired thinking the ship was not headed in the right direction but still time to get in a new coach to get this right before WC 2026. I have no idea if the inner circle at USSF was even thinking of making a change (not that they could afford it anyway) but the outward signals were believe in the process.

June 2025 Pre Gold Cup Friendlies

Heading into the CONCACAF Gold Cup the US prepared by scheduling two pretty tough sides in Turkiye and Switzerland. In the first match they played toe-to-toe with the Turks before losing 2-1. But some definite signs of progress were there. Then the wheels fell off against the Swiss losing 4-0. But did the wheels really fall off? Two things happened during this window that many fans failed to recognize. First, is that we made 9 changes in the starting lineup between the two matches. Unheard of in today’s game. Secondly is the tweak Pochettino made in the tactics during half time of the Swiss game. Sure you can say the Swiss were ahead 4-0 at the half and just coasted the game out. But there was more to that story. A lot more. In fact the best chances in the second half were pretty much all the US.

But was really the most telling storyline of these two matches were the lineups. Maybe just maybe Pochettino’s plan was starting to bear fruit. There were only 1 or 2 players in each starting lineup that would be thought of as Best XI. So the question now became could they show more progress in the Gold Cup.

June 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup

Entering the Gold Cup there were still a lot of questions to answer. Yes it appeared that some depth to the team was showing and they had displayed some flashes of quality but could they build on that in a tournament environment? The Group Stage went pretty well and was expected as they walked through with three wins outscoring their opponents 8-1. One of their best ever group stages at a Gold Cup. The quarter-final was a bit of an underwhelming performance tying Costa Rica 2-2 and advancing on penalties. The semi-final was the Diego Luna show as the Real Salt Lake midfielder scored a brace leading the US to a 2-1 win over Guatemala and it was on to the final against who else but Mexico. While El Tri prevailed 2-1 the young US side missing many stars (Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi) had a fine showing.

Overall the Gold Cup was a strong performance and we started to see the emergence of some new faces and their improvements at a rapid pace. Malik Tillman was simply one of the best players at the tournament and made a name for himself along with Max Arfsten, Alex Freeman, and Diego Luna. So ok maybe Pochettino is on to something.

September 2025 FIFA Window

The September window is always a mixed bag for the USMNT, especially in the year prior to a WC. Fans want to see the “A team” and start to finalize the tactics and players to be used. But September is also early in the European seasons and its hard to call in players who have moved to new clubs over the summer. Is it better to call them in or let them stay with their club? Ultimately the best thing for players on new clubs is to get lots of playing time with those clubs over the winter and calling them in right after their seasons have begun tends to not build a good relationship between national teams and their clubs. So as usual the roster for this window was a mixed bag. Fair number of the European based players and plenty of MLS guys as well.

And they had two tough opponents scheduled in Korea and Japan. Ultimately the results were fine. Losing to Korea and beating Japan both games going 2-0. But fans were starting to see that the process might be working, at least for steps 1 and 2 but what about step 3? When were we going to see the goods so to speak? With limited time for the national team to train and play together wasn’t it time to see a camp with all the guys expected to be at WC 2026?

October 2025 FIFA Window

With two decent sides scheduled in Ecuador and Australia it was hoped to see some results and most importantly a setup and approach to play that was gelling. And they got a bit of both of those thigs as they tied Ecuador 1-1 (a top defensive side from South America) and beating the Aussies 2-1. Ok better but still not quite what we were hoping for.

November 2025 FIFA Window

The pitch forks were all back at the farm pitching hay where they belonged. The players stepped up and the coaches showed the world they actually have had a plan all along and that they did know what they were doing. In fact I can’t remember the last time I saw us look so good in consecutive matches. First they faced off against Paraguay and although the score was close, 2-1, the US dominated that game start to finish and looked good doing so. The tactical and player decisions looked terrific and the team played like they wanted it. Then came Uruguay ranked #16 in the world an coached by one of the game’s best in Marcelo Bielsa, a mentor to Pochettino. So how would this game fare? The mentor vs the student? In this case it was all the student. The US came out firing on all cylinders and scored three in the first 31 minutes on the way to a 5-1 crushing defeat.

Step 3 checked off in a big time! Lets summarize what has occurred over Pochettino’s run and especially over the last several months by looking at his three steps.

Step 1 – 59 different players have played for the senior team since Pochettino took over. Given that the typical camp has 30 players called in of which 26 make the actual game day rosters that’s a lot of depth. And this doesn’t count the many players who were called in to camps, got training time with the team, yet didn’t make the field during a game. 20 different players started these last 2 matches!!

Step 2 – The biggest complaint for years with the Nats has been the lack of goal scoring. In his first 18 matches as the coach 17 different players have scored goals for the US. And while it would take a short novel to talk about all the combinations of players and tactics tested over the last year plus suffice it to say that its been a bunch.

Step 3 – While you can’t get to this step without going through steps 1 and 2, ultimately Pochettino’s caution to fans to be patent with the process has borne true. At times it has seemed like players weren’t sure of their roles and how teammates would react in different situations the growing pains have yielded two very important things headed to next summer.

a. The biggest issue from WC 2022 is that very little player rotation occurred between the Group Stage matches and on the the knockout stage match with the Netherlands. Whether that was a coaching error, a lack of player depth, or a combination of both the fact is that by the time the US advanced they were playing on tired legs. And that was simply a recipe for disaster against the Dutch. As we’ve seen over the last few months and especially the October and November windows that shouldn’t be the case next summer. There are probably 30+ players who could see the field at the WC. Surely they are not all at the same level of quality however none of them would cause much concern among the fans. This pool is deeper than its ever been and the drop off from a starter at a given position to their main back up is not a chasm like it has been in the past. For example, lets tike RB. The difference between Sergino Dest, Joe Scally, and Alex Freeman is minimal. Sure overall Dest is clearly the best guy. But from a pure defensive standpoint Scally is the strongest. From an athletic position Freeman is the best. But you’d be fine with any of those three guys starting a match.

b. Which leads me to the second point and IMO the most important thing that has happened under the current leadership. And that is the ability to structure a lineup and tactics geared toward the opponent. As in the example above if we are playing a team where we expect them to have most of the possession and have a strong left attacking side then you night start Scally for his defensive ability.

Certainly we expect things to be tweaked between now and next June but here’s a snapshot of how I expect us to play, in general, and who are the likely starters for a given scenario. I’ll do a more detailed breakdown in my pre World Cup analysis next June but here’s a quick look based upon what we’ve seen these last several windows.

Base formation:

Under Pochettino the US have seemed to lock in on 3 different formations. But here’s where it gets tricky and why players getting reps in training is so important. In today’s game formations are really just a broad starting point and the actually tactics and players responsibility changes depending on who has possession and where on the field the ball lies. Lets break that down a bit.

The 3-4-3

What is commonly called the 3 ATB (across the back ) is just what it says. Typically the back 3 are all what historically would be considered center backs. More defensive minded and not prone to move into the attack except for set pieces. In this formation the defensive midfielder (Tyler Adams) tends to sit fairly deep in front of the back 3. His role is to break up the opponents attack and provide a short outlet pass when the defense gains possession. He provides the link to the forward progression. The wingbacks of those 4 may actually drop all the way back on defense when the opponent has the ball in the final third making the structure look like a defensive 5 in the back. But in possession those wingbacks may run the entire sidelines to spearhead crosses into the box. The front 3 are typically spaced so the #9 is the highest up the field and the two wingers are slightly withdrawn to provide support to wingbacks and to look for inside runs to goal. To stay with the example above, in this style the RB would typically be Scally.

The 3-4-2-1

The main difference between this and the 3-4-3 is that the front two wings tend to play a bit deeper into the defensive third. This is a really good counter attacking formation in that the defensive end is very difficult to penetrate and if you have a fast #9 who makes smart runs (Balogun or Pepi can both do this) a quick goal can result.

The 4-3-3

This formation is typically different from other two in that it utilizes only 2 players who you’d call center backs. The outside backs in this formation play much like the wing backs above except that they may be biased toward defense and allow the defensive midfielders to play further up the field . In this case you’d expect to see Sergino Dest at the RB position (or Alex Freeman).

Roster Expectations

FIFA has not yet announced what the final roster number will be but I expect it to be 26 players. There is some rumbling that it may even go to 30 players but I am pretty sure that the days of the 23 man rosters are over. So assuming its 26 here’s a projection. Yes I am aware Tyler Adams has recently torn his MCL. He’ll be back. I sure of it. Pretty please. All I want for Christmas!

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese, Matt Turner, Patrick Schulte

Center Backs

Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Joe Scally, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson

Outside Backs

Antonee Robinson, Sergino Dest, Alex Freeman, Max Arfsten,

Defensive Midfielders

Tyler Adams, Tanner Tessman, Sebastian Berhalter, Cristian Roldan

Attacking Midfielders and Wingers

Weston McKennie, Malik Tillman, Diego Luna, Brenden Aaronson, Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah,

Strikers

Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright

The rest of the way? The US has scheduled an extremely challenging set of matches headed to next summer.

March FIFA Window

Belgium and Portugal

Pre World Cup Tune-ups

Senegal and Germany

Then it all begins on June 12, 2026 in Los Angeles when we play Paraguay in the first group stage match. Stay tuned guys its going to be a ride. Will we perform to our capabilities? Time will tell but I have never been more excited about our prospects!

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USMNT – Road to WC 2026 Ramps Up

Steve Birrer — Thu, 09 Oct 2025 14:21:42 +0000

The general mantra is that the road to a World Cup begins the day after the current one ends. While that is not wrong its also a bit out of context, especially for the USMNT and WC 2026. That statement is true in most cases because these are the steps to get to the next WC.

Evaluate performance at the recently completed WC and look across the pool of players to build a deep pool of players that might have a role in the next WC.
Play some friendlies and your Federation’s (in our case its CONCACAF) tournament to look at those players in depth.
Use that pool and depth to navigate the qualification process.

Four years seems like a long time to navigate that process, and while its adequate its certainly not any too long. But for WC 2026 the USMNT didn’t have to go through step 3 as they automatically qualified as a co-host along with Mexico and Canada. So to many fans that seemed like a good thing. The reality is a bit different. Without having to go through the qualification process it really limited the number of quality/competitive matches the team had in order to really evaluate their player pool. Friendlies are all well and good but there are two downsides to this.

Friendlies are just that, friendlies. And teams do not, generally, take those as seriously as competitive matches. The result being that most clubs are less inclined to release their key players for a non-competitive match.
its difficult to schedule good teams since most other countries are involved in their qualification process and simply not available.

What this all means is that the quality of play that the USMNT could schedule was not as good as you’d like outside of their invite to COPA America 2024 and the CONCACAF Gold Cups. But the good news is that now that we are close to next summer more quality teams are available to schedule as they have already qualified or are still in that process and want to stay sharp. This started with window last month when we hosted South Korea and Japan. Both quality teams.

Here’s a look at the games currently on the schedule leading to next summer.

October – Ecuador and Australia

November – Paraguay and Uruguay

March – Portugal and Belgium

That is a very good preparatory schedule and its likely that 2 or 3 more games will be added next May/June right before WC2026.

So just what does this mean in terms of what the US needs to accomplish over these next two windows? According to Manager, Mauricio Pochettino, the “time for experimenting is over.” Pochettino made that statement concerning the window last month with the expectation being that future windows would be more aligned with the best roster of available players. Time to build a cohesive unit ready for our home WC. And the roster selection announced last week surely signaled that its time to get serious. Now that doesn’t mean there won’t be roster tweaks the rest of the way but by and large most decision from here on out will be based on fitness and form. Now one name I hope to see in November is Noahkai Banks. Although only 18 he could well be a key CB next summer.

Here’s the October roster with the players club affiliation listed.

Goalkeepers (4): Chris Brady (Chicago Fire), Matt Freese (New York City FC), Patrick Schulte (Columbus Crew), Matt Turner (New England Revolution)

Defenders (8): Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew), Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic), Alex Freeman (Orlando City), Mark McKenzie (Toulouse), Tim Ream (Charlotte FC), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace), Antonee Robinson (Fulham), Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati)

Midfielders (8): Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United), Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders), James Sands (St. Pauli), Tanner Tessmann (Olympique Lyonnais), Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen)

Forwards (6): Patrick Agyemang (Derby County), Folarin Balogun (Monaco), Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Tim Weah (Olympique Marseille), Haji Wright (Coventry City), Alex Zendejas (Club América)

And like EVERY roster selection announced the fans raised the age old question….”why wasn’t (insert favorite player here) selected….what’s wrong with this coach.” My first thought is to usually just laugh them off. In most cases there are good reasons the selections were made and equally why some were left off. Here’s a quick look at those missing from this camp and why that is.

Tyler Adams – Initially even I had the WTH Poch thought. Adams is our best DM and its not even a question. And he hasn’t been hurt so what gives. Turns out there’s no behind the scenes issue here. Adam’s wife is do to have a baby any day now and he stayed home to be with her.

Sergino Dest – Just recovering from injury and its not up to full time playing.

Ricardo Pepi – Injured

Gio Reyna – Injured. Two matches in for his new club and hurt again. Reyna’s chances of making the final roster are rapidly dropping. He really needs to recover quickly and get in a couple of matches to be able to get called in for the November camp.

Johnny Cardoso – Injured

Jack McGlynn – Injured

Josh Sargent – Just not called in but not surprising that again last September he failed to produce for the Nats.

Now the two names you can find all kinds of back door stories about.

Yunas Musah – I believe its a issue of form but his declining a callup to last summer’s Gold Cup likely didn’t earn him any extra credit.

Joe Scally – This is the really odd one for me. We need more defensive depth and he’s starting every week in the Bundesliga.

But at the end of the day this is a pretty solid roster and includes just about everybody you’d want to see that’s available. Now that we are approaching crunch time just what major decisions do Pochettino and his staff have to make before they submit the final WC 2026 roster? I think it mostly boils down to one major decision. Are they going to play a 4-3-3 or stay with a 3-5-2 which they mostly used last window. This is the critical decision because the players that need to be evaluated and tested the rest of the way really fall out from this one choice. As, an example, lets look at a “Best Starting XI” depending on your base formation. Here’s what a 4-3-3 might look like.

Now lets take a look at a 3-5-2 formation.

So mostly the same personnel except that you have Mark Mckenzie as a RB in the back three. This means you now have to decide to do want to keep Malik Tillman in your midfield 5 as the better ball handler or do you want to keep Tim Weah in there for his speed down the wings. Both are adequate defenders. Weah is a better outside attacker while Tillman is a better inside attacker and line between the back line and the attack.

And while most of the “Best XI” are the same, as you would expect, the biggest difference becomes who you then call in as the rest of your roster. If you stick with a 4-3-3 then your outside backs need to be very fit and have good 1 v 1 defending ability. And your defensive midfield needs to have very good overall defensive abilities and some speed to cover a counter attack when your outside backs are caught upfield. This would favor players such as Aiden Morris and Joe Scally. If you go to a 3-5-2 then you need to ensure you have backline substitutes that are very good defensively. Such as Joe Scally. But your wingback substitutes would be more offensively focused. Not that they don’t have to have adequate defending skills but there primary use is more in creating chances. This favors players like Alex Freeman and Max Arfsten. Thankfully, with a 26 man roster you can have the best of both worlds and have the ability to change formations based on the opponent and any player fitness issues. However the desire to be able to switch base formations and tactics is also not with its downside. Even though the rosters are expected to be 26 players it becomes more difficult to take a player such as Sebastian Berhalter. While Sebi is a fine midfielder there are others who are overall better players. BUT none of them have the free kick taking ability of Sebi. And in a match where you need a late goal there are two player types that can be crucial. A free kick taker and a big forward who is excellent in the air. I guess this is why Pochettino and staff get paid the big bucks. Not easy decisions they will have to make.

But this begins in earnest this Friday as we take on Ecuador. The game is set for this Friday, October 10 at 8:30 pm EDT in Austin, Texas. Then they will follow that up with a game against Australia on Tuesday, October 14 at 9:00 pm EDT at Commerce City, Colorado. Both matches will be broadcast on TNT and streaming will be available on Peacock.

The next 8 months is going to be a fun ride. Get your game face on. Time for the Nats to show us the good!

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UEFA Champions League 2025-2026 Preview

Steve Birrer — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 19:24:39 +0000

The 2025-2026 UCL season is upon us once again. With mixed bag review from the format instilled last year, UEFA has kept that format at least for one more season. With all the pros and cons the bottom line is that with more teams and more overall matches it can generate more fan interest. Maybe. But what it does unquestionably generate is more revenue. Personally I am not a big fan of this format. It is much harder to look at the schedule and dissect how your team should fare. Historically, the draw was always important. But once the 4 team groups were established it was easy to track how your team was doing. And it was a balanced schedule. Each team in a group played the other teams both home and away.

But the new 36 team format did away with groups. The draw became even more of a crapshoot. While each team plays 8 matches, with 4 at home and 4 on the road teams could luck out and have their tougher matches at home and the easier ones on the road. Or vice-versa. So the crapshoot of the draw just increased in crapshootingness (is that a word…lol). And it makes roster management so much tougher. Lets take an team in the EPL as an example. From mid August through May they play 38 EPL matches, a handful of FA Cup matches, a handful of Carabao Cup matches plus their UCL matches. Not even counting any national team matches players get called to during the official FIFA windows in September, October, November, and March. That’s a lot of playing time managers need to deal with to keep their players fresh. Its always been a major task for club managers but its even tougher now. In the past, a manager could track the standings in their group and have a reasonable idea of where they stood and how many points they needed to end up with to advance. That’s not so easy now since there are no groups. So its much tougher to predict what you need at the end.

As a reminder, under this format the 8 teams with the highest point totals earn byes directly to the Round of 16. The 12 teams with the lowest point totals go home. The middle 16 teams are seeded and play an away and home set of matches with the return leg being at the home of the higher seed. The 8 winners from those matches then combine with the 8 bye teams to form the Round of 16. The Round of 16, Quarter-finals, and Semi-finals are all home and away series. The final slated for May 30. 2026 in Budapest is a winner take all match.

So there’s the backdrop lets look at this seasons league.

Domestic League and Clubs

England: Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Newcastle
Spain: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético de Madrid, Athletic Club, Villarreal
Italy: Napoli, Inter, Atalanta, Juventus
Germany: Bayern München, Bayer Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Dortmund
France: Paris Saint-Germain, Marseille, Monaco
Netherlands: PSV, Ajax
Portugal: Benfica, Sporting CP
Belgium: Club Brugge, Union Saint-Gilloise
Türkiye: Galatasaray
Czechia: Slavia Praha
Greece: Olympiacos
Denmark: Copenhagen
Norway: Bodø/Glimt
Cyprus: Pafos
Kazakhstan: Kairat Almaty
Azerbaijan: Qarabağ

The EPL, the biggest league in the world, has the most teams this year with 6 while the 8 smallest leagues have one team each.

League Schedule

Matchday 1: 16–18 September 2025
Matchday 2: 30 September–1 October 2025
Matchday 3: 21/22 October 2025
Matchday 4: 4/5 November 2025
Matchday 5: 25/26 November 2025
Matchday 6: 9/10 December 2025
Matchday 7: 20/21 January 2026
Matchday 8: 28 January 2026

Knockout Stage Schedule

Knockout phase play-offs: 17/18 & 24/25 February 2026
Round of 16: 10/11 & 17/18 March 2026
Quarter-finals: 7/8 & 14/15 April 2026
Semi-finals: 28/29 April & 5/6 May 2026
Final: 30 May 2026 (Budapest)

Clearly, the objective going in is to get in the top 8 to avoid playing 2 extra matches. Come next March those extra days off will be critical. That is crunch time for domestic leagues, domestic cup competitions, and the last FIFA window prior to WC 2026. The players will be on tired legs and every match they don’t have to play is huge.

Here’s how I see the overall league play. The number in parenthesis is the team’s current standing in their respective domestic league.

Top 8

Liverpool (1), Manchester City, (8), Arsenal (2), Chelsea (5), Paris Saint-Germain (1), Barcelona (5), Real Madrid (1), and Bayern Munich (1)

Knockout Playoff

Tottenham (3), Napoli (1), Juventus (2), Atalanta (6), Inter (13), Atletico Madrid (3), Athletic Club (3), Villareal (4) ,Bayer Leverkusen (9), Eintrecht Frankfurt (5), Borussia Dortmund (2), Marseille (6), Monaco (4), PSV (2), Benfica (4), and Sporting CP (2).

Eliminated

Newcastle (10), Union Saint -Gilloise (1), Club Brugge (5), Ajax (3), Galatsaray (1), Slavia Praha (1), Olympiacos (1), Copenhagen (2), Bodo Glimst (1), Pafos (10), Kairat Almaty (1), and Qarabağ (7).

If you are interested in some real deep analysis of this, and especially for you gamblers, I suggest you take a look at Opta Analyst’s evaluation. Its really good!

Champions League 2025-26 Fixture Difficulty: Who Has the Easiest and Toughest League Phase Games?

And all the fun begins this Tuesday. Who wins it all? Its a long long season but push comes to shove I would go with Liverpool.

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English Premier League 2025-2026 Preview

Steve Birrer — Thu, 14 Aug 2025 17:22:47 +0000

Another summer flies by and here we are on the cusp of another great soccer season in Europe of course capped by the biggie of them all, the English Premier League. And the 2025-2026 season kicks off Friday with Liverpool hosting Bournemouth with the Reds looking for back to back titles.

Before we dive into our team by team preview there are some interesting changes to go over first.

The biggest change is the implementation of SAOT (Semi-Automated Offside Technology). A series of cameras places around each stadium willbe used along with VAR (Video Assistant Referee) to determine if offside position of players. The belief is that this will shorten the time to make these critical decisions by a whole 31 seconds/review. Great as the process using strictly VAR has been slow and tedious. My editorial comment – We don’t need more technology. They need to get back to the old interpretation of offside. Was their daylight between the torsos of the players in question. Deciding offside because Harry McGuire (size 13) has big feet is just dumb.
“Only the Captain Rule” – this is actually a good one. Its always been the case that only the player wearing the armband should approach the referee. But its been overlooked forever. Now its clearly spelled out. If player who is not the captain approaches the referee they can be shown a yellow card. Time will tell if the referees actually follow through with this. I hope they do. Will only take one group surrounding a referee complaining about some call. Show a yellow to the whole lot of them and that will stop.
Drop Balls – For a drop ball inside the penalty area the ball will be dropped to the goalkeeper. For drop balls outside the area the ball will be dropped to a player of the team that last touched the ball unless the referee could easily determine who was going to gain possession then he can award the drop to that team even though they had not touched it last.
And for the first time in 25 years Nike will not be providing EPL game balls with that contract now awarded to Puma.

Ok let look at the 20 teams competing in this seasons EPL.

Arsenal

Last Season Prediction – 2nd

Last Season Actual – 2nd

Last season was on so close for Gunner fans but the just couldn’t quite push Liverpool off the title spot. Same thing as the two years before when they couldn’t catch Manchester City. Three straight runner up seasons have fans wondering just what it takes to get over the top? One of and probably the major complaint the last few seasons is the Gunner’s lack of a top flight #9. Well that’s put to rest with the transfer signing of Viktor Gyokeres the Sweedish international. Will he be enough to push them over the top? Not a single Arsenal player scored double digit goals last season. Gyokeres needs to fix that. Time will tell but in his first match in the Arsenal kit for their Emirates Cup match he scored. So far so good.

Prediction – 2nd for a 4th straight season.

Aston Villa

Last Season Prediction -4th

Last Season Actual – 6th

What a job manager Unai Emery continues to do. Last season they made the quarter-finals of UCL including besting Bayern Munich in front of their home fans. A semi-final run to the FA Cup and barely missing out on this seasons Europe play on goal differential. But as well as they have done Emery still hasn’t brought any hardware home. They are a solid club all around and really don’t need to make any major changes. They just need to continue to grow, especially 23 year old attacking midfielder Morgan Rogers. He’s the engine that drives their attack. He’s becoming a true star and will need to have a stellar season to push AV higher up the table.

Prediction – 5th

Bournemouth

Last Season Prediction – 15th

Last Season Actual – 9th

First the good news. They had a fine season finishing nigher than most anybody projected. In fact, they earned 56 points, there most ever in an EPL season. So it seemed that their approach to building a successful team was working. The approach of a buy low and sell high model is certainly a valid path one can take. Now the bad news. First they only won 3 of their last 15 matches so its a tough way to end the season. They did as well as they did by building a strong defense first and they did have one of the tougher teams to score on last year. But in following their model they moved on from 3 of their back 5 (Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez, and Kepa Arrizabalaga). But they did then parlay some of the transfer money into signing Djordje Petrovic (goalkeeper) and Adrien Truffert (left back). They could be just about as good defensively as they were last year. The key may turn our to be the health of defensive midfielder Tyler Adams (USMNT). If Adams plays most of the season they could be even better.

Prediction – 9th

Brentford

Last Season Prediction – 18th

Last Season Actual -10th

Sorry Bee’s fans but your club is in trouble. After a surprisingly solid last season the powers that be have decided to go in a different direction coaching wise. Manager, Thomas Frank is gone and he took three assistants with him. And a 4th assistant also left. In Frank’s place they have brought in Keith Andrews, a rookie manager. A new staff will take time to get their training regimen in place and the players following the tactical plan Andrews and staff lay out. This has all the makings of a team headed to the relegation zone.

Prediction – 18th and relegated

Brighton Hove Albion

Last Season Prediction – 11th

Last Season Actual – 8th

Fabian Herzeler had a fine season in his first year leading the Seagulls. With another year of managing experience and a better appreciation for what it takes to succeed in the EPL they in solid shape to have a good campaign. Their highest finish in the EPL was 6th place during the 2022-2023 season. They may be on track to get back to that benchmark. Much will depend on the newly signed striker from Greece, Charalampos Kostoulas. If the 18 year old star in the making quickly adjusts to the speed of play in England he could bolster an already solid attack. Its a lot to ask of an young player but he has the tools. If he plays to potential his transfer fee will end up being in the $30M range which would be a record for a Greecian player. Yes he just might be that good.

Prediction – 7th

Burnley

Last Season Prediction – NA

Last Season Actual – 2nd in EFL Championship

Burnley, unfortunately, looks to be the typical one season up and back down side. They did bring in veteran RB Kyle Walker and his experience will help them but he can only do so much. They do have a young striker in 20 year old Joe Westley but he only had one year in the EFL Championship and is going to have a lot of growing pains this season. This team probably just doesn’t have the ponies to run with the big boys. But as they say the games aren’t played on paper.

Prediction – 20th and relegated

Chelsea

Last Season Prediction – 7th

Last Season Actual – 4th

The broken record of the last several years might have actually gotten broken last season. For several years, they would spend a bunch of money. Sign a ton of players. Loan them out all over Europe and get them some quality experience. But its been slow to actually materialize in The Blues getting back up into the top echelon of the EPL. Well that changed in a big way last season. Chelsea climbed back into a UCL spot with finishing in 4th then this summer quietly worked their way to the title in the Club World Cup (CWC). Built on a solid attack lead by Cole Palmer, they have taken a big step forward signing 18 year old Brazilian Estevao. Estevao was a stud for Palmerias in theCWC and actually scored a stunner in their match against Chelsea. Now he will play as both a winger or as the #10 playmaker making Palmer even more dangerous. And many overlook their defense which is a mistake. This defense shut totally shut down PSG in the CWC, a team many believe has the best attack in the world right now.

Prediction – 3rd

Crystal Palace

Last Season Prediction – 10th

Last Season Actual – 12th

They were an odd team last season. Really two pretty different teams. There was the league team that had a net zero goal differential. Won, drew, and lost at about an equal pace. Not a bad club but not one really doing much either. Then there was the team playing in the FA Cup. That competition, which started clear back on August 2, 2024 with 745 teams ended up with CP facing Manchester City in the final. And of course City were clear favorites. But Wembley Stadium was rocking and the Eagles came to play. And at the end of the day they had won their first major trophy in club history. They haven’t done much in the current transfer window and are likely going to fall back a bit. But there is one very bright side. Chris Richards (USMNT) in central defense was an absolute standout during the recent Gold Cup and is transforming into a world class center back. Keep an eye on him this season.

Prediction – 14th

Everton

Last Season Prediction – 11th

Last Season Actual – 13th

What every fan wants to know. Does playing in a brand new stadium give them a bump? After sacking their manager and bringing in David Moyes in the middle of the season they earned 31 points in 19 matches. They have brought in a star in the making in French U-21 forward Thierno Barry who scored 11 goals for Villareal in La Liga last season. That’s the plus side. The flip side is that 9 of their first team players from last season have departed. While they do have some up and coming younger players that’s a lot of experience to replace. Look for a little regression this season as their young core gains more experience.

Prediction – 15th

Fulham

Last Season Prediction – 13th

Last Season Actual – 11th

I want to start with a note from last years preseason prediction – “they have one of the best LB in the EPL in Antonee Robinson. A very familiar name to US fans. Robinson lead the EPL in interceptions last season with 80, 15 more that the second best number. The guy is a true end-to-end player.” That statement is no longer accurate. Jedi is the best LB in the EPL. He was tied for 4th in assists, 2nd in interceptions, and 1st in successful crosses from the run of play. Manager, Marco Silva, has the Cottagers playing a high energy attacking style and its working well. The problem is they just don’t have the overall talent to move up the table much. They have only made one signing so far in this transfer window in goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte. While he does give them some depth he played last season for Montpellier HSC (Ligue 1) a team that got relegated. Not any kind of difference maker.

Prediction – 12th

Leeds United

Last Season Prediction – NA

Last Season Actual – 1st in EFL Championship

The expectation these days is that most teams that get promoted last but a single season before being relegated right back down. Leeds is certainly looking like a team trying to break that mold. Leeds has only spent 3 of the last 21 seasons in the top flight and manager Daniel Farke says its his job to keep them up there. They have already signed 7 players this summer with the focus on taller and more physically capable players. While they faired well in the Championship last year, their roster was on the small side and the more physical play of the EPL was going to be difficult. And while it still will be bringing in the likes of Lucas Perri (Lyon goalkeeper), Sebastian Bornauw (6ft 3in CB from Wolfsburg), and Sean Longstaff (Newcastle midfielder) is a big step in the right direction. One player to keep an eye on is Harry Gray. Gray doesn’t turn 18 until October and only had one senior team cap last season. But the kid can finish with either foot and he will likely be a prominent member of the side by mid season if not sooner.

Prediction – 17th and avoids relegation

Liverpool

Last Season Prediction -3rd

Last Season Actual – 1st

Heading into last season the club was facing a couple of big questions. How would their star studded roster fare under new manager Arne Slot? Would there be a let down with the retirement of Jurgen Kloppp? Secondly how would Slot mold the roster to play tactically how he saw them especially since they made zero moves during the summer transfer window? Well the won the whole damn thing so I guess those questions were answered as positively as they could be! So how do they look in their chances to repeat? If they had a weakness last season, it was in their depth. Slot did very little rotation but then they were so much better than everybody else it didn’t really matter. But they did tend to wear down a bit which showed in the Carabao Cup final where he didn’t rotate and they just faltered against Newcastle. To aid that they have made a number of very good signings this window bringing in Bayer Leverkusen stud attacking midfielder Florian Wirtz. Wirtz has 16 goals and 31 assists (across all competitions) last season. And they return one of the best CB pairings in the world in Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate. Barring a bunch of injuries they are the clear favorites.

Prediction – 1st

Manchester City

Last Season Prediction – 1st

Last Season Actual – 3rd

Last year the prediction was the Man City would win the EPL until manager Pep Guardiola retires or hell freezes over. Well Pep didn’t retire so hell must have froze over. Not that they had a “bad” season. They continued to score lots of goals and not allow many good for a +28 goal differential. But unfortunately Liverpool and Arsenal just had better seasons. The key seems to be the fitness of defensive midfielder Rodri. He looked great in the CWC and if he can stay on the field this season it makes the Citizens a tough out. But he’s a big question mark. But at the end of the day the difference may be the loss of Kevin De Bruyne. KDB is one of the greatest playmakers in the game even if he is aging. They will miss him but Man C’s loss is Napoli’s (Serie A) gain.

Prediction – 4th I think they miss KDB a bunch and Chelsea is going to bypass them.

Manchester United

Last Season Prediction -5th

Last Season Actual – 15th

Just a crushing poor season for the Red Devils, with their worst finish in history. The scored a paltry 44 goals and looked poor in doing so. Manager, Erik ten Hag was fired in November and replaced by Ruben Amorim who was given the season to just work with the players and evaluate the best way forward. Then ownership opened up the purse strings and spent $230M on three new attacking players in Matheus Cunha (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Bryan Mbuemo (Brentford), and Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig). Amorim insisted on playing a 3-4-3 last season even though his personnel didn’t fit that system. Will he stick with that again this season or adjust his tactics to better fit his side? They should improve this season but its hard to picture anything much more than creeping into the top 10.

Prediction – 8th

Newcastle

Last Season Prediction – 8th

Last Season Actual – 5th

This side defied the oddsmakers last year and actually improved up the table and earned a spot in the UCL and they won the Carabao Cup. The difficulty the Magpies (who names their team this?) are going to have is managing the workload of the EPL, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, and UCL. Five starters from last season have moved on and Swedish striker Alexander Isak (27 goals and 6 assists across all competitions) has asked for a transfer and has been sitting out the preseason saying he will “never play for Newcastle again.” This is just a mess and needs resolution quickly. This kind of a distraction at the start of a season may put a damper on things for a bit.

Prediction – 6th

Nottingham Forest

Last Season Prediction – 16th

Last Season Actual – 7th

One of the positive surprises of last seasons. Manager, Niuno Espirito Santo, did a fantastic job moving them up 10 spots in the table over the previous season and earning a berth in the Europa League. But the good comes with some bad too. They will now be consistently playing twice a week and are going to be stretched thin to maintain a level of quality. There approach to sitting back and counter attacking works ok for them but its tough to score many goals in that scenario when you are playing so many matches. So they are trying to focus on a bit more attack during the preseason but it hasn’t been working. They played 7 preseason matches and scored but 1 goal. Ouch. The Forest hope is that this was preseason where the entire point is to try different things and that the experience will pay off come the EPL. We’ll see, Santo is going to have to work some magic.

Prediction – 13th

Sunderland

Last Season Prediction – NA

Last Season Actual – 4th EFL Championship

Nobody will say that Sunderland didn’t go all in to make a play to build a side capable of staying up. They have spent $154M to bring in 11 players with the most notable being a trio of midfield stars in Enzo Le Fee (AS Roma), Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen), and Habib Diarra (RC Stasourg). The question then is how much will they miss last years best player, Jobe Bellingham, who transferred to Borrusia Dortmund? They are certainly doing what they can to compete but its probably not enough.

Prediction – 19th and relegated

Tottenham Hotspurs

Last Season Prediction – 6th

Last Season Actual – 17th

What a terrible EPL season for the Spurs. About the best thing fans could say is that they were well above the relegation zone. But next to Manchester United they were the flop of the year. Even though they did win the Europa League, that trophy was not enough to keep Ange Postecoglou’s job. Thomas Frank has been hired to bring this club back respectability. The key to the Spurs fortunes this season may well lie with how well Frank is able to utilize Archie Gray in central midfield. Gray was a critical piece of the English U-21 side than won the U-21 European Championship earlier this summer. He’s a good one with lots of pace and solid footwork.

Prediction – 10th

West Ham United

Last Season Prediction – 9th

Last Season Actual – 14th

Julen Lopetegui didn’t even make it one full season and was fired in January and replaced by Graham Potter. Interestingly enough, the Hammers actually were a bit worse under Potter than Lopetegui but by that time their season was pretty much over and Potter will be given a little time to turn the club around. But they have already lost their best attacking player Mohammed Kudus (transfer to Tottenham) and haven’t replaced him yet. Still they do have better talent than their showing last season and could creep up towards mid table.

Prediction – 11th

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Last Season Prediction – 12th

Last Season Actual – 16th

The Wolves had a horrific start to the season last year earning just a single point in their first 8 matches and 15 points in their first 23 matches leading to the firing of manager, Gary O’Neil. They played much better the last few months of the season under Vitor Pereira earning 27 points in their final 15 matches. A big step up. Unfortunately, the preseason has not gone well at all failing just a single draw in their 5 matches. They have brought in several players but they lost last season’s top scored in Matheus Cunha and that is going to be hard to deal with.

Prediction – 16th

The season begins Friday and EPL matches will again be shown on the NBC family (NBC, USA, Peacock). And as the usual caveat remember that the transfer window is still open till September 1st so team outlooks can still improve.

The post English Premier League 2025-2026 Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

USMNT – Post Gold Cup: Where do we Stand?

Steve Birrer — Wed, 16 Jul 2025 15:03:25 +0000

The CONCACAF Gold Cup finished up just over a week ago and it was the last competitive set of matches the USMNT will play prior to WC 2026. Leading into the Gold Cup we all knew that Manager, Mauricio Pochettino (Poch) was facing a tall task. Numerous key players were missing for a variety of reasons and for those who did make it to camp had very little playing time together. So the focus for the camp and the two friendlies was for Poch to find a set of players that could step up for the several week long tournament and to hopefully showcase what they could offer for the final WC 2026 roster. Things started ok in the first friendly with the Nats losing a tough match 2-1 to Turkey (FIFA #27). It was a closely fought match and the guys did some good things (and some not so good things). All things considered a solid performance for this group.

But then the wheels fell off and they were thoroughly played off the field in the second friendly losing to Switzerland (FIFA #19) by the ungodly score of 4-1. But even in the face of such an abysmal performance things were learned to take back to training to prepare for the tournament. And prepare they did. What you look for in situations like this, with so many untested players, is progress. Can their work their way through adversity and progress both individually and as a team. And to most fans and pundits they did they in spades. They started Group Stage play with a 5-0 thrashing of Trinidad and Tobago (FIFA 101), followed that with a 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia (FIFA #59) and closed out the stage beating Haiti (FIFA #90) 2-1. Now while those results, other than the TNT match, may not look that great bear in mind that not only was this mostly a B and C level roster but they did manage to go undefeated and on to the Knockout Rounds.

In the first knockout they faced a tough Costa Rican (FIFA #40) and drew 2-2 but advanced on PKs. Now this might not sound like a big deal but if you look at this a bit deeper it was. The CR keeper is the best keeper in the Federation (Kaylor Navas)l and he has always been tough on the US. And this was the first international tournament for our keeper, Matt Friese. More on this later but to win this in PKs was a huge lift for the young guys. Then on to Guatemala (FIFA #100). The US went out to a big 2-0 lead with Diego Luna scoring twice in the first 15 minutes. But the game got very physical with 6 yellow cards handed out (should have been several more to the Guatemalan side) as the side from Central America figured out that they could just hack Malik Tillman with little repercussions from the referee. But they got the W and on to the final against rival Mexico (FIFA #13). And the final went about as expected. Mexico with its full A team roster was expected to win and they did. But not without plenty of controversy. They took a page out of the Guatemalan playbook and hacked and hacked the US players especially Tillman and the midfielders. And just like that previous match they got away with it. Then in the 66th minute this happened.

The turning point sparked a surge of emotion on the pitch, with tempers flaring and the tempo rising as the match entered its final stretch, and although the result ultimately favored Mexico, the tournament as a whole showed how quickly a young squad can grow when tested under pressure against experienced opposition. Performances like these also remind fans how international competitions often hinge on small details—discipline, composure in physical matches, and the ability to handle hostile environments—all of which shape teams long before the next World Cup cycle begins. Following qualifying campaigns, fixtures, and tournament schedules has become easier for supporters who want to track how teams progress through these stages, and many keep an eye on match listings and broadcast details through https://www.livesportsontv.com, which helps put results like these into a broader context by showing where each game fits in the global calendar and how rivalries continue to develop across successive tournaments.

I’ve listened to every punidt, read every review, went back and re-read the Laws of the Game and now this wasn’t called a handball is just simply mind boggling. Poch put it best when asked about this no call. “The truth was that if that happened in the opposite half, in the other box, for sure its a penalty.” And he’s not wrong. Still it was a decent showing and the team showed a lot of growth during the month long camp. But so what happens now?

As mentioned earlier, this was the last competition prior to next summers big show but there are 4 more FIFA windows before then giving the US the opportunity to get the players together and train and play friendlies. These upcoming windows are:

September 1-9, 2025

October 6-14, 2025

November 10-18, 2025

March 23-31, 2026.

These windows will be very important for the team to integrate in those players who missed out on the Gold Cup and prepare for WC 2026. At this point excluding the September window, it needs to be all hands on deck. The September window may not see as many A team players as those recently moved to new teams may be better off staying and training with their new clubs to ensure their place in their plans versus coming to camp. Hard to say at this point what Poch will do. But the WC is less than a year away and its time to hone in on the final roster. With that in mind here’s a rundown on what I see as the current set of players most in the running for a final roster spot (currently set at 23 but many think FIFA will move it up to 26). And certainly, there is a lot of club soccer to be played over the next 10 months so some surprises could happen. Here’s a breakdown by position with players listed with their current clubs/leagues. Bear in mind that the transfer window is currently open in Europe and the MLS window opens in 2 weeks so some players will likely be moved from the current situation. So starting with the back (most important position…lol) and moving up the field.

Goalkeepers

Coach Pochettino like his predecessor Gregg Berhalter wants to play possession and build out of the back. This requires keepers to be cool headed and good with the ball at their feet. But at the end of the day the keepers primary job is still to keep the ball out of the net.

Matt Freese (NYCFC, MLS) – In his first international tournament Freese did well and was give every start. All he did in this tournament was to cement that him currently being the #1 is the correct choice. Freese made all the saves he should have albeit he could have done better on one goal he did let in but he was calm and decent with his passing. But what really did the trick was his PK play against CR stopping 3 of 5 shots. More than you could hope for so for now I see him as the guy,

Matt Turner ( Lyon, Ligue 1) – Turned is not far behind in most peoples minds with one big exception. He seems to have lost some of his confidence the last 2 years and has not been very good the last several times for the USMNT. Now he is still probably the best overall shot stopper we have and his foot play has improved but still not where it needs to be. Mostly what he needs is to get a lot of playing time with his new club. Its been clear that riding the pine the last several seasons hasn’t done his mindset or technical skills an favors.

Zack Steffen (Colorado Rapids, MLS) – Steffen could be the best of the bunch but he has had injury problems for several seasons and can’t seem to get right. He was likely to get a start or two this last window but got hurt and had to withdraw. He was the backup for Manchester City for a reason. Keep and eye on how the rest of his season goes and perhaps a winter transfer back to Europe?

Outside Backs

Poch makes no secret that he will attack the flanks and his outside backs must be good in that area. Thankfully we have two starters who excel at both ends of the field. Unfortunately we also don’t have any guys currently wno don’t have some fairly big weaknesses.

Antonee Robinson (Fulham, EPL) – Jedi was 4th in the EPL in assists and was on the EPL Best XI as the best LB in the league. He’s a simply a world class player. The knock on him for a couple of seasons was that his defending wasn’t where it needed to be but that’s all changed. He defends well, is a menace down the wing, and he has a motor that just doesn’t stop. He’s a guy that you have confidence he can play every minute of a Group Stage and be ready to roll for the knockouts. He is one of our two most important players.

Sergino Dest (PSV, Eredivisie) – Dest was just coming off a long injury layoff and had rejoined PSV for the end of their season. He was called into the Gold Cup camp but after several sessions and review with the medical staff was determined to be not fit enough for the tournament and was sent home. Tough in that he hasn’t yet played a match under Poch but that should be corrected this fall. He is our best RB and its not close. Others are equal and maybe even better defenders but no one offers the defense and attacking prowess of Dest.

Joe Scally (Borussia Mochengladbach, Bundesliga) – Scally is a solid defender and offers a bit going forward but is best suited as a stay at home back. Nothing flashy but he is good 1×1 defending and good on defending set pieces.

Alex Freeman (Orlando City, MLS) – Freeman, son of Green Bay Packer WR Antonio, got his first reps with the senior team in this last window and impressed a lot of people. His defending is not where it needs to be for the WC but he is very good in the attack. He is an athletic specimen. Doesn’t get pushed around by opponents and has a great recovery speed. That is especially important in Poch’s scheme where he likes to attack down the wings with his outside backs. Sooner or later you are likely to get caught too far upfield and your best attribute then is just pure speed to get back. He has it.

Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew, MLS) – Arfsten is quite similar to Freeman. Leaves a bit to be desired defensively but is so good in the attack. His Gold Cup play has upped his chances to make next summer. Today I’d have to give a nod to Freeman. Arfsten may be a little better in the attack (and he is left footed which is huge) but Freeman is much better defensively. Both could make the roster or neither of them at this point.

John Tolkin (Holstein Kiel, 2 Bundesliga) – Tolkin sits square between Freeman and Arfsten but he does play on the left which give him a leg up for next summer. He isn’t the attacking threat of Arfsten but he is a better defender. And when you have guys on the roster like Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Tyler Adams who have all played outside backs its hard to see if more than one or two at the most of Scally, Freeman, and Tolkin make the cut.

Center Backs

Its pretty simple in Poch’s system. Stay home and defend, be the first in progressing the ball out of the back, and be good in the air. Standard CB stuff.

Tim Ream (Charlotte FC, MLS) – Doesn’t matter how old you are if you still have the goods and Tim still has it. Captained the squad throughout the Gold Cup and was calm and steady in the back even if he is 36 years old. Clearly he doesn’t have as quick a first step as 5 years ago but he makes up for it with great positioning and thinking ahead. As for passing out of the back he’s the best in our pool.

Chris Richards (Crystal Palace, EPL) – No hyperbole we are seeing Richards develop into a world class CB in real time. He is just a beast on defense and oh my how important his head has become on set pieces scoring two headers in the Gold Cup including the first goal in the final. His pace is superb, his positioning is terrific, and he is great in the air and at 1v1 defending. Our most important defender IMO. If he can up his passing game a bit he’s going to be a total stud.

Mark McKenzie (Toulouse, Ligue 1) – McKenzie is a solid everyday player. Not fantastic at any one thing but adequate at everything. However, he has shown a tendency to have a major mistake about once/match when playing for the USMNT. That needs to be cleaned up for him to see much time next summer.

Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati, MLS) – A few years ago Miles was my favorite CB. Fast, solid, and pretty much mistake free when playing for Atlanta in the MLS. And it appeared he was soon to head to Europe. Then disaster struck in the form of a torn Achilles Tendon in the spring of 2022 that kept him out of the WC. His recovery was long and tedious and he’s still not back to where he was. He’s still a solid defender but if he can get that extra step back he could fight for a roster spot.

Walker Zimmerman (Nashville FC, MLS) – Zimmeramn is a solid defender and very good in the air. If he has a role next summer it would likely be as a late defensive replacement to hold a lead. He’s experienced and has had a solid club and international career.

The bottom line is that its highly unlikely that the final roster includes 5 CBs. Somebody is going to be disappointed.

Defensive Midfield

The system we use, in this case, is just what it says. You defend the middle of the field. Support wide especially when one of the outside backs has pushed forward, and you better be very solid with the ball at your feet, both dribbling and passing. Anything you offer in the attack is bonus.

Tyler Adams (Bournemouth, EPL) – When healthy and fit, which has been a struggle the last two years, Adams is very, very good. He is a superb defender and read the game exceptionally well. His passing is more than adequate and he surprises you in the attack on occasion. And he makes no bones about being with the team. If he can walk he will be there. His attitude is as good as it ges.

Johnny Cardoso (Real Bettis, La Liga) – Any day now expect to see that Johnny has moved to Atletico Madrid which would be a big step up for him. Atletico will play in Champions League this fall giving Johnny some time against very good competition. Johnny has been very good the last several years but as of yet hasn’t shown the same quality when playing for the USMNT. In fact, in general he’s been fairly pedestrian. We were hoping to see him change that during the Gold Cup unfortunately injury and illness kept him out.

Luca de la Torre (San Diego FC, MLS) – Although most experts have him on the outside looking in next summer he was featured prominently in the recent Gold Cup. Clearly Poch likes was he brings to the table. Hard to know at this point how much of that was his play versus others missing the camp?

Tanner Tessman (Lyon, Lique 1) – Tessman has shown well in his limited time in a Nats jersey (8 caps). He will need a strong club season in order to get called in but he does offer more in the attack that his competition.

Midfield

Probably the strongest overall position we have. Plenty of quality depth and more and more guys joining that depth it seems every window. Which is good because we also seem to have a problem keeping them healthy. This is the part of the field where we win or lose. When you want to have a possession style of play and build from the back its the midfield that makes it happen. They control the flow of the game and see the opposing team’s approach with dealing with that and that determines the how and when you attack. Is the space wide? Do you have a target holdup player near the 18? Or is a line breaking pass to a runner there?

Weston McKennie (Juventus, Serie A) – McKennie is a true box to box midfielder. Plays defense and attacks as well as controls the middle of the field often in tandom with Adams and whomever else is in the middle. But probably his strongest attribute is in making long ball switches across the field. He’s very accurate at those and that is often times how you break down an opposing defense. Additionally, he’s very good in the final third whether its taking a shot or finding that final pass. Oh, and he’s pretty good at getting on corners with his head.

Yunas Musah (AC Milan, Serie A) – Musah is still young and that’s the good news. He is very good on the dribble and working through multiple defenders giving other players opening spaces. The bad news is that he hasn’t yet developed the game sense to know what to do with the ball in the final third and how to find that open teammate. And at times he seems to disappear for long stretches of a game. Still the talent is there if he can get his game right.

Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen, Bundesliga) – No single player’s stock rose as much during the Gold Cup as Tillman’s. Although he’s been in numerous camps his play for the national team hasn’t been close to what he’s displayed for his club team (PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie). His play was so good this past year that he was named to the Erevidisie Best XI and just the other day finalized a transfer to Leverkusen. Tillman was simply terrific in the Gold Cup across the entire competition although he was clearly playing on very tired legs in the final. But then after all the minutes he played and all the hacking he had gotten its a wonder he could still stand. Testament to his grit. He’s going to be a key playmaker next summer.

Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake, MLS) – Like Tillman, Luna’s stock soared during the Goal Cup. His flare, grit, and resolve were just a pleasure to watch. Defending, attacking, running to space. He was doing whatever it took. Some thought that he wasn’t the attacking presence during the final that he had been in the earlier matches but that was because he was busy supporting Arfsten in marking the Mexican forwards. Luna should make the roster next summer and fight for starting minutes.

Brendan Aaronson (Leeds United, EPL) – Aaronson is a bit like the Energizer Bunny. Buzzes around everywhere on the field disrupting opponents play and creating general havoc. He is probably not starter material but he can help hold a lead late or sub in as an extra attacker. He’s good at drawing fouls and earning free kicks. Valuable tools when you need a goal.

Gio Reyna (Dortmund, Bundesliga) – Wat to say about Reyna? Just 22 years old and all the skills and vision you could ask for in a soccer player. But he has been plagued by injuries and coaches who don’t seem to value him. Case in point. Reyna was not in the recent Gold Cup because Dortmund was in playing in the Club World Cup. So that’s where Gio was. Then just like Dortmund, they sat him on the bench. In 5 matches he saw a total of 12 minutes. There is no question that talent is there. When fit and in form he may be the most dangerous attacking player in the US. But he plays so little that he’s neither fit nor in form. Is it because he’s lost his step from so many injuries or does he having training issues? Nobody really knows the story here but everybody agrees 100%. Gio needs to resurrect his career and to do so he MUST leave Dortmund. And if he has any chance to play in WC 2026 he really needs to move this summer to a place where he will play. Current rumors say LAFC in the MLS is looking closely at him. Would love to see that. Oh how an attack in the middle of the field of Pulisic, Tillman, and Reyna would be special to watch.

Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps FC, MLS) – Yeah the son of the last coach but that shouldn’t matter one way or the other. He got his first cap in the friendlies prior to the Gold Cup and earned a starting spot. While perhaps not at the level of most of his competition for a roster spot he can hold his own. But he has one attribute that he may be the absolute best at on the team and that is his free kicks. Its been a long time since we have had a player who consistently put his free kicks into dangerous spots. That singular skill might just earn him a spot on the roster especially if they expand to 26. The only other players close to him in free kick ability are Reyna and John McGlynn.

Wingers

Where most of the US attack happens. And if midfield is our deepest position winger is probably our shallowest. We have a couple of really good ones then some guys who can play the position but its a large drop off if the main guys can’t go.

Christian Pulisic (AC Milan, Serie A) – I am not going to join in on the debate on whether or not he should have been at the Gold Cup or not. He played over 3500 minutes this past season and felt he needed a break. To me he’s our most important attacking player and I’ll take him at his word. He’s skilled, has terrific vision, and plays with a ton of heart. They don’t call him Captain America for nothing. We need him next summer. Enough said.

Tim Weah (Juventus, Serie A) – Weah is in an interesting situation. He’s one of our better attacking players and loves to stay wide which is why he pairs so well with Dest who loves to cut in behind and go inside. But Tim doesn’t play wing much for Juve anymore so he has to get in plenty of training minutes with the Nats to get back in sink. But he’s fast, can dribble, and has a great shot and cross. At his best he’s a key player for our attack. He’s been pushing for a transfer to Marseilles in Ligue 1. May or may not happen and he’ll be fine either way but he may see more playing time if he moves to France.

Haji Wright (Coventry City, English Championship) – Could list Wright as a striker as well but he’s mostly played wide for the US and that’s probably where he’d be slated to play if he makes the roster. He’s a big guy but quick for his size. His ability to use his body to fend off defenders and get off a shot or cross is why he’d make the team.

Now that’s pretty lean but there are other guys who can easily play wing if needed (Aaronson and Reyna).

Striker

The simplest role to explain in soccer. They have one main job. Put the ball in the net. The good news is that we have several guys who have done this very well for their club teams over the last year. The bad news is that nobody has really stepped up when giving a shot for the USMNT. Surely some of that is do to the small sample sizes. The national team just doesn’t have that many games in a given year. Yet the same can be said for most every country. For the US to go far next summer we need one of these guys to find their peak at the right time.

Folarin Balogun (Monaco, Ligue 1) – US fans were super excited several years ago when Balo announced that he had decided to play for the USMNT over England and Nigeria. We finally had a guy who could play as a true #9 and had both the physical traits and skills to do so. And Balo has scored some terrific goals for the US but like so many other guys has had the injury bug. He was called in for the camp but an ankle injury suffered the last month of his club season hadn’t healed enough to let him play. But when fit he’s crafty, uses his body positioning better than anybody on the team, and has an accurate and quick shot. When fit I think he’s #1 on the depth chart.

Ricardo Pepi (PSV Eindhoven, Eredivisie) – Pepi, what can you say about him? All he does is get the job done. And over the last two seasons at PSV he has scored 18 goals in 45 league matches as a backup player. And hes shown well scoring for the US. I think he’s currently #2 on the depth chart but with a strong club season this year he could move to #1. Still a great guy to have coming off the bench.

Josh Sargent (Norwich City, English Championship) – Sargent is coming off his best season as a pro scoring 15 goals across 33 matches. He was the starting striker at the 2022 WC and was doing well until suffering an ankle injury. But the knock on him has been his ability to score for the US. Remember, that after all is the main job of the #9. Lost of rumors right now about him transferring to a big 5 league club in the next several weeks. I think for Josh to have a shot at making the WC roster he needs a move and a strong season. For whatever reason I don’t think Poch favors him. He just came off his best season yet was not called into the Gold Cup camp for, according to Poch, “was for football reasons.”

Patrick Agyemang (Derby County, English Championship) – Yeah unless you have been paying close attention you’d think I got his club wrong and that he plays for Charlotte FC in MLS. But no his transfer is official and this really helps him have a shot at making the roster next summer. The good – Big Pat is ….well big. More like a beast at 6ft 4in. Opposing teams don’t just push him around and he often takes up two defenders trying to contain him. And he’s faster than you think. But the bad – his first touch is pretty rough to be nice. He has a really good work rate for such a big guy and knows the runs to make and when. If, and its a big if, he can improve his foot skills this winter he may punch a ticket to the WC. As it stands now he could go into next June as the #1, the #2, the #3, or not even on the roster. He does have one huge thing in his favor. Poch clearly rates him.

There are certainly some other guys to watch over the next 10 months that could find their way in:

Keepers – Diego Kochen, Ethan Horvath, Gabriel Slonina

Outside Backs – Nathan Harriel, Marlon Fossey, DeJuan Jones, Kristoffer Lund, Caleb Wiley

Center Backs – Cameron Carter- Vickers, Austin Trusty

Midfield – Aidan Morris, Jack McGlynn, Quinn Sullivan, Paxten Aaronson. Gianluca Busio

Wingers – Alejandro Zendejas, Griffin Yow, Matko Miljevic, Kevin Paredes

Forwards – Damion Downs, Brian White, Brandon Vasquez

So lots to keep an eye on over the next several months. I think by and large the October and November windows is where we will see how Pochettino is leaning.

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