Back in September we took a look at the upcoming UCL and what to expect. UEFA had kept the new 36 team format which had done away with the Group Stage and instilled a League Phase in which each team played 8 matches (4 at home and 4 on the road). While the new format was met with mixed reviews there were two main complaints with this format.
- The draw has always been a critical component of tournament soccer but under the new format it becomes even more critical. While the pots are relatively balanced to even our the strengths of schedule the key difference under this format is not only who did you draw but where! Drawing your tougher matches at home and the easier ones on the road really changes things.
- With so many teams involved its very difficult to track just how your team is doing and what it needs to accomplish toward the end of the League Phase. Under the old Group Stage format it was easy to know going into the last couple of matches just what your team needed result wise. And in fact oftentimes teams knew they would advance before the final matchday.
While I have not been a fan of this new format I have come around a bit on this and starting to like it! Lets look at the last match day and use the Real Madrid – Benfica match as an example. Going into the final matchday Real Madrid only needed a draw (and likely a one goal loss) to finish in the Top 8 and automatically advance to the Round of 16. Benfica meanwhile needed a win and some help. The first half was a back and forth affair with each team scoring twice then in extra time Benfica scored again taking a 3-2 lead into the half. At this point Benfica likely needed to score again as they were tied in points with Marseille but behind on goal differential. But try as they might they just couldn’t find goal #4. At the end of regulation the 4th official added 8 minutes of extra time and things started to heat up. In the second minute of extra time Raul Asencio was shown red and Real was down to 10 men. At that point Real was still on track to finish 8th and Benfica was headed home. And of course Real went to full on bunker mode and Benfica just couldn’t penetrate the defense. Then in the 6th minute of extra time Rodrygo was also shown red and Real was down to 9 players. In the 8th minute with the match about over Benfica earned a free kick from well outside the box. The Benfica coach was frantically waving his keeper, Anatoliy Trubin (pictured above) forward. Trubin did not know that Benfica still needed another score. But following his coaches direction he raced up into the Real penalty area and scored a crazy headed to score that crucial 4th goal. By definition “goalie goals” are always very special but this one even more so. Benfica moves on. Real falls out of the Top 8. And Marseille gets sent home. All in a span of the final seconds of the final match.
So yeah its kind of hard not to like something like this. So just who is moving on and how is going home? Lets look at our preseason prediction to see how we did.
Prediction:
Top 8
Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich
Knockout Playoff
Tottenham, Napoli, Juventus, Atalanta, Inter, Atletico Madrid, Athletic Club, Villareal ,Bayer Leverkusen, Eintrecht Frankfurt, Borussia Dortmund, Marseille, Monaco, PSV, Benfica, and Sporting CP.
Eliminated
Newcastle, Union Saint -Gilloise, Club Brugge, Ajax, Galatsaray, Slavia Praha, Olympiacos, Copenhagen, Bodo Glimt, Pafos, Kairat Almaty, and Qarabağ.
Actual Results:
Top 8
Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Münich, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Sporting CP, Tottenham
Knockout Phase
Atalanta, Athletic Club, B. Dortmund, Benfica, Bodø/Glimt, Club Brugge, Galatasaray, Inter, Juventus, Leverkusen, Monaco, Newcastle, Olympiacos, Paris, Qarabağ, Real Madrid
Eliminated
Ajax, Athletic Club, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Kairat Almaty, Marseille, Napoli, Pafos, PSV, Slavia Praha, Union SG, Villarreal
So as expected all the big guns advanced and most directly to the Round of 16. And the middle of the pack clubs mostly advanced. And the smaller lesser known clubs mostly are headed home. But they play the games for a reason and there were some surprises so its not hard to see how this format is growing some fan interest.
The Knockout Phase
The draw took place on January 30th and the 8 home and home matches will take place over the next two weeks. The matchups are as follows:
Galatasaray – Juventus
Gala comes in on a 4-0-1 run while Juve has gone 1-2-2 in their last five matches. But Juve has played the much tougher schedule and has the favorable draw starting on the road and playing the second leg at home. And USMNT midfielder Weston McKennie has been a force of late. Look for Juventus to advance.
Monaco – Paris Saint Germain
Monaco has a tough assignment facing perennial Ligue 1 standouts PSG. Monaco comes in on a 2-3-0 run while PSG has gone 3-1-1. These teams are, of course, very familiar with each other playing in the same domestic league so expect it to be a hard fought set of matches. But at the end of the day PSG is going to advance. For US fans, this will be a great time to watch Folarin Balogun to see how he performs against a top side. An in form Balogun will be one of the keys to how well the US does at the WC this summer.
Benfica – Real Madrid
Real as the top of the table for the Knockout Phase was seeded against Benfica. You couldn’t get more drama that this matchup. Real will be hoping mad that they fell out of the Top 8 and even had to play in this round and will be looking for revenge. But Benfica will know they can go toe-to-tow with Real having just beat them. So how does this go? Well two things. First off, don’t expect to see 2 Real Players get red. Secondly, the situation is a bit different than the last meeting. Kylian Mbappe and company move on. Sorry Benfica fans it was fun while it lasted but all good things come to an end. But both sides come in on superb stretches (Benfica 4-1-0 and Real 4-0-1) and as stated earlier they play the games for a reason.
Borussia Dortmund – Atalanta
One of the more toss up matches. Both are playing at a high level. Dortmund having gone 4-0-1 and Atalanta 3-1-1 in their last 5 matches. Dortmund is probably the slightly better club but because of their finish in the League Phase Atalanta has the advantage of playing the second leg at home. That is just a big benefit. But in this case I think Dortmund does well enough at home in the first leg to get a multiple goal victory then defend on the road and secure their spot in the Round of 16.
Qarabag – Newcastle
Neither side has been playing terrific soccer of late with Qarbag on a 3-02 run while Newcastle comes in 2-0-3 stretch. But, and in this case its a big but, Newcastle plays in the much tougher EPL compared to Qarabag and the Azerbaijan Premier League. The Nut Brown Ale are used to playing tough matches with lots on the line. Newcastle advances.
Olympiacos – Bayern Leverkusen
Oly comes in at 2-2-1 while Leverkusen, playing in the much tougher Bundesliga, comes in on a 4-1-0 run. Leverkusen has been playing very good soccer for the last couple of months and with the favorable away then home should hold serve. US fans keep and eye out for #10 Malik Tillman. The attacking midfielder will see plenty of minutes this summer for the Stars and Stripes.
Bodo Glimt – Inter
Bodo Glimt tied for the last spot in with Benfica and with 3 other clubs who failed to advance due to goal differential. Bodo comes in on a 3-1-1 run and are playing pretty good soccer. All things relative are the key here. Inter is hot, hot, hot and are 5-0-0 of late and keeper Yann Sommer has been very good this season, especially in UCL playing all 8 matches and only allowing 7 goals. Inter advances.
Club Brugge – Athletic Club
Brugge surprised many by advancing and actually finished in the middle of the teams moving to the Knockout Phase. Form wise they have gone 4-0-1 compared to Athletic going 2-1-2. Athletic Club is clearly a tougher side and plays in the much tougher La Liga than the Belgian League. But Brugge has faired well against the Spanish club with a 2-2-2 record in their 6 head to head matches. And this match features clubs that both have terrific keepers. Brugge features Simon Mignolet (Belgium) Athletic has Jan Oblak (Slovenia). Any time you have two top keepers facing each other a hot hand can be the difference maker. And both of these keepers are used to big time pressure. What happens when hot hands meets hot hands? The team playing at home in the second leg wins.
The first legs are next Tuesday and Wednesday with the second legs the week after. All the matches will be shown on Paramount Plus. Take a look. Some really good matches but I think the Benfica – Real Madrid match is must see. Can’t possibly have as much excitement and drama as the last meeting. Or can it?
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.