That is where the season stands. The judges have stopped previewing the season and started grading it. In October, eligibility was a question every ranking had to hedge. Now it is an answer, and teams are moving on it.

RJ Godfrey’s lawsuit for a fifth year was denied. Arizona, a Final Four team last season, opened with an 84-75 loss to UCLA and made one three-pointer in the first half. Trey Kaufman-Renn’s request for a sixth year, after four seasons at Purdue, was granted for now. He is 11-of-13 through two games, and Kansas has climbed to fifth in KenPom and second in Torvik.

The pattern runs down the list. Texas Tech got Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams. Gonzaga got Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett. St. John’s got Quinn Ellis from the NCAA and Keyshawn Hall from a judge, and Hall scored 26 in his debut. More of these cases have gone the players’ way than against them, and every one of them can still be reversed on appeal.

Meanwhile, the teams with nothing in court have done what they were expected to do. Duke is first in both KenPom and Torvik and has passed Florida as the betting favorite. Florida is still No. 1 in both polls. Illinois scored 120 in its opener.

The next eight days test all of it. Tuesday brings Duke and Michigan State in the Champions Classic, Kansas and Kentucky in the nightcap, Illinois at Texas Tech and Florida at Florida State. A week later, Illinois visits Duke and Michigan State goes to Tennessee.

One week in, here is what we’ve seen and where we think it’s going.

Quick Hits

No. 9 Virginia 91, No. 12 Arkansas 72 (Washington, Nov. 8th). The most convincing win by anyone so far. Virginia started its four returning starters, made 12 threes, shot 46% and led by 27. Thijs De Ridder had 16 and 10. It was Virginia’s first win over an AP top-15 team since November 2023 and its biggest margin over a ranked opponent since 2021. Arkansas, picked third in the SEC by CBS’s panel, has lost four straight to AP top-10 teams.

Valparaiso over Purdue in double overtime (West Lafayette). It left Purdue 0-2 for the first time since 1976-77 and dropped out of both polls. Losing to Gonzaga was fine. Losing at home to Valparaiso was not.

Memphis 89, VCU 88 (Nov. 7th). Jayden Reid scored 32 with 7 assists, a week after his 26 beat Iowa State. Memphis received the most votes of any unranked team in the AP poll and plays at Vanderbilt on Nov. 10.

UCLA 84, No. 5 Arizona 75 (Las Vegas, Nov. 2nd). The first loss by a preseason top-five team, and it came days after RJ Godfrey’s eligibility lawsuit was denied. Arizona made 1 of 13 threes in the first half and trailed 43-29 at the break. Ivan Kharchenkov scored a career-high 38 with 10 rebounds and got Arizona within a point with 3:11 left. UCLA’s bench outscored Arizona’s 17-4 in the first half, which is the story of the matchup: the Bruins have depth and Arizona doesn’t anymore.

No. 4 UConn 85, No. 16 Michigan 77 (Boston, Nov. 6th). The title-game rematch went the other way. Braylon Mullins scored 23 and made 10 of 11 free throws; Silas Demary Jr. added 21 and freshman Colben Landrew 14 off the bench. Michigan gave away too much: 11 turnovers in the first half and a 7-of-28 night from three. Dan Hurley briefly walked onto the floor after a bench technical late in the first half; his team then closed the half on an 11-2 run.

No. 1 Florida 77, No. 14 Miami 67 (Tampa, Nov. 2nd). Thomas Haugh had 19 points, 10 rebounds and no turnovers, and made 4 of 8 threes, which is the one number Florida fans will care about. Rueben Chinyelu had 14 rebounds. Miami got within two early in the second half, then went five minutes without a field goal. The game had two technicals and three fouls upgraded to flagrant.

Memphis 80, No. 18 Iowa State 76 (Sioux Falls, Nov. 2nd). Northwestern transfer Jayden Reid scored 11 of his 26 in the final three minutes. Iowa State tied it at 69 and couldn’t finish. The Cyclones will be without Killyan Toure until January.

Gonzaga 78, Purdue 72 (Las Vegas, Nov. 2nd). Davis Fogle scored 22 for a Gonzaga team that now has Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett eligible. Purdue started 0-2 and is unranked for the first time in 80 weeks.

BYU 94, Ohio State 83 (Salt Lake City, Nov. 2nd). Robert Wright III scored 35. With AJ Dybantsa gone, this is now Wright’s team, and he has played like it.

East Texas A&M over Oklahoma (Nov. 2-4th). Oklahoma was a 28.5-point favorite. ESPN calls it the second-largest upset by point spread in 30 years.

No. 17 Kansas 89, Middle Tennessee 45 (Nov. 6th). Trey Kaufman-Renn scored 17 in 18 minutes and is 11 of 13 through two games. Kansas shot 63%, held Middle Tennessee to 25% and got 46 points from its bench.

Georgetown 86, Maryland 74 (Washington, Nov. 7th). Georgetown made 15 of 30 threes; Maryland made 3 of 20. More in the Maryland section below.

Elsewhere at the top, nobody was tested. Duke beat Army by 34, Illinois beat Fairleigh Dickinson by 75, Texas beat Chicago State by 50 and Michigan State beat Quinnipiac by 37.

Nebraska 67, Providence 58 (Uncasville, Nov. 7th). Pryce Sandfort scored 25, and Nebraska entered the AP poll at No. 25. It was the Huskers’ 24th straight regular-season non-conference win, a program record.

USC 93, Wichita State 86 (Nov. 8th). Rodney Rice scored 32 with 9 assists and Alijah Arenas added 30, the first time two Trojans have each scored 30 in a game since 2015. The rest of the roster scored 31 combined, which is the USC question in one box score.

Kansas loses Melvin Council Jr. (Nov. 9th). The starting guard broke his right foot in practice and is expected back around the start of Big 12 play. More in the rankings below.

Monday’s tune-ups (Nov. 9th). Nobody ranked was tested. UConn beat Wagner 83-41 behind Silas Demary Jr.’s 18 points and six steals. Texas beat Grambling 93-62 as Matas Vokietaitis had 26 and 9. Alabama beat Oakland 109-68, with London Jemison scoring 20. Tennessee beat Radford 70-47 behind Terrence Hill Jr.’s 18, and Miami beat North Florida 89-51 with 16 from Malik Reneau.

Corrections And Updates

What the Oct. 12 preview said that has changed, and what has held up.

• Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey: the preview listed him as waiting on a fifth year. A court has since ruled him eligible, though the NCAA is expected to appeal.
• UConn’s Solo Ball: the preview said he would redshirt. CBS now reports he is expected back at some point this season; ESPN still lists him as redshirting. We’ll treat it as open.
• Texas Tech’s JT Toppin: the preview said only that he wasn’t expected to start the season. The target is now mid-December to around Christmas.
• Iowa State’s Killyan Toure: the shoulder injury will keep him out until January.
• Illinois’s David Mirkovic: out for the first couple of weeks with the foot injury, per CBS.

What has held up: the eligibility thesis, which ran the whole preview, has been the story of the first two weeks. Our chalk Final Four’s top three (Duke, Florida, Illinois) are the top three almost everywhere. And our bet on Houston over the polls is now the consensus of both models.

Top 20 Power Rankings

Records through Nov. 9. “Move” is the change from our Oct. 12 preseason Top 20.

1. Duke (2-0, up 1). The move to No. 1 isn’t about anything Florida did wrong. It’s that every measure we trust now points the same way. Duke is first in KenPom and Torvik, first in the Bilas Index, and the betting favorite. The rating KenPom gave Duke in the preseason was the highest in the system’s history, and two games in it has gone up. The roster is the reason: John Blackwell, Patrick Ngongba II, Dame Sarr and Caleb Foster back or arriving, Cameron Williams off the bench, and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, who at 17 already looks like a starter on a title team. Jon Scheyer’s two previous teams were great in November and lost late in March. This one is deeper than both. Ngongba scored 28 against Coastal Carolina. Michigan State on Tuesday and Illinois next week will show how much the depth matters against good teams.

2. Florida (2-0, down 1). Nothing went wrong in Tampa. Thomas Haugh was the best player on the floor against Miami, Rueben Chinyelu had 14 rebounds and the Gators held a feisty in-state opponent without a field goal for five minutes when it mattered. They are second because Duke is first, and they get the head-to-head answer at home on Dec. 1. The question we raised in October still stands: Florida shot 31.2% from three last season, and Haugh’s 4-of-8 night is one game.

3. Illinois (2-0, no change). A 120-point game against Fairleigh Dickinson proves only that the offense works when it’s supposed to. It does point to something, though: Illinois is first in KenPom’s offensive ratings without David Mirkovic, its best player, who is still working back from foot surgery, and without sharpshooting wing Jake Davis. The 232 points in two games are a Big Ten record. Stefan Vaaks and Quentin Coleman have to hold up in the backcourt until he returns. The road trips to Texas Tech (Nov. 10) and Duke (Nov. 17) are where we’ll learn how much. So far, freshman Quentin Coleman is shooting 85% on twos and Stojakovic has 45 points in 24 minutes.

4. Kansas (2-0, up 9). The biggest climber in our top 20, and the reason is three court orders. Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. are two starters back for a fifth year, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a sixth-year Big Ten forward who has missed two shots in two games. Put them around Tyran Stokes and Kansas has the experience Bill Self has lacked the past three seasons, plus the No. 1 recruit. Torvik has the Jayhawks second in the country. Then came the first setback that had nothing to do with a courtroom: Council broke the fifth metatarsal in his right foot in practice on Nov. 9, needs surgery, and Self hopes to have him back around the start of Big 12 play. Council started both games and averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 assists last season. CBS expects Kansas to go bigger without him, with Keanu Dawes, Stokes and Kaufman-Renn together. Kansas holds at fourth because of what the rest of the roster has shown, but the margin is thinner. The other asterisk hasn’t gone away: if any of the remaining court orders is reversed, Kansas drops faster than anyone else on this list. Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday is the first look at the bigger lineup.

5. Houston (2-0, up 3). We had Houston eighth in October, when CBS had the Cougars 14th and ESPN 18th, and the models have moved our way: KenPom third, Torvik sixth. The defense is the No. 1 unit in KenPom again, with Joseph Tugler and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie inside. Dedan Thomas Jr. had 16 in his debut. The offense will decide whether this is a top-two seed, as it does every year under Kelvin Sampson.

6. UConn (3-0, down 1). The win over Michigan was the most impressive result by any of the title contenders: a neutral-floor win over the defending champion, with Braylon Mullins and Silas Demary Jr. combining for 44 points and a freshman, Colben Landrew, adding 14. We moved UConn down a spot only because Kansas and Houston moved past. KenPom has the Huskies ninth and Torvik eighth, lower than we do. Monday’s 83-41 win over Wagner, with Demary scoring 18 and adding six steals, was a tune-up for Ohio State on Friday. Dan Hurley’s March record is why we don’t follow them there.

7. Virginia (3-0, no change). The Cavaliers answered the question we asked of them. They beat Arkansas 91-72 in Washington, made 12 threes, led by 27 and won with the four returners who scored 69 of 97 against Northeastern. Thijs De Ridder had 16 and 10. CBS’s Gary Parrish notes that Ryan Odom built this roster without a top-30 payroll, by keeping his best players rather than buying new ones. The AP has Virginia sixth and Torvik has them fourth; KenPom, 16th before the Arkansas game, has since moved them up to 10th. Johann Grunloh is playing on an injured right ankle. Bucknell is Tuesday, then a trip to College Park on Friday.

8. Michigan State (2-0, down 2). Jeremy Fears Jr. had 13 points and 11 assists in the opener and is on pace to lead the country in assists again. Michigan State is sixth in KenPom and has the best point guard in the country. The question is still the center position, with Anton Bonke replacing Carson Cooper. Duke on Nov. 10 and at Tennessee on Nov. 17 will answer it quickly. Freshman Jasiah Jervis scored 16 against Toledo.

9. Texas (3-0, no change). Matas Vokietaitis scored 22 in the opener and 26 against Grambling on Monday, and looks like an All-SEC center. The models split hard on Texas: eighth in KenPom, 18th in Torvik. We’re closer to KenPom, because the talent is undeniable, but a roster this new still has to show it can defend together. Mikey Lewis is still out with a foot injury.

10. Arizona (1-1, down 6). In October we wrote that Arizona’s title case rested on one ruling for one power forward. The ruling went against RJ Godfrey, and the loss to UCLA showed why it mattered. Arizona was 1-of-13 from three in the first half and had almost no bench. Ivan Kharchenkov’s 38 points are a reason not to drop the Wildcats further, and Torvik still has them seventh. But the November schedule doesn’t wait: at Auburn, UConn at home, then Maui.

11. Gonzaga (2-0, up 8). The biggest riser outside Kansas. In October, three Gonzaga guards were waiting on courts; Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett are now eligible. The frontcourt of Braden Huff and Massamba Diop was always the strength, and Davis Fogle scored 22 against Purdue. KenPom has the Zags 11th and Torvik ninth.

12. Louisville (2-0, down 2). Flory Bidunga had 16 and 9 against Chattanooga and looks like the best interior defender in the ACC. Seth Trimble is still waiting on a ruling. The two models disagree by seven spots: Torvik 11th, KenPom 18th. We’ll learn plenty on Dec. 1 against Texas and Dec. 12 at Kentucky.

13. Vanderbilt (2-0, new). We left Vanderbilt out in October. KenPom has the Commodores seventh, the biggest gap between any model and the polls. Tyler Tanner had 20 and 6 in a 46-point opener, and the transfer group of Ace Glass, Bangot Dak and Berke Buyuktuncel has fit around him. The schedule ahead is a good test of whether the rating is real: Memphis, at Ohio State, at Notre Dame and at Cal.

14. Iowa State (1-1, up 4). The loss to Memphis was close, on a neutral floor, without Killyan Toure, and the models still have the Cyclones 14th (KenPom) and 12th (Torvik). Tamin Lipsey is playing under a ruling the NCAA is expected to appeal. Iowa State’s defense is eighth in KenPom.

15. Nebraska (2-0, new). We listed Nebraska as a team we liked better than the projections in October. KenPom has the Huskers 15th and Torvik 13th. Pryce Sandfort opened with 20. The defense was supposed to drop off after losing four of its best defenders; KenPom has it ninth so far.

16. Texas Tech (2-0, no change). Donovan Atwell and Darrion Williams are eligible, and Jamichael Stillwell has since been cleared to return under a temporary restraining order from a Lubbock judge. Atwell’s trial isn’t until June, so he likely plays the whole season. Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn give the Red Raiders scoring until JT Toppin returns, targeted for mid-December. If Toppin is himself by January, this ranking is too low.

17. Tennessee (2-0, down 6). The biggest faller still in our 20. Tennessee lost exhibitions to Xavier by 16 and Duke by 39, and Bilas left the Vols out of his 64 entirely. They have since beaten Wofford 90-59 and Radford 70-47, with Terrence Hill Jr. scoring 18 on Monday, and the models have them 23rd (KenPom) and 19th (Torvik). Rick Barnes built this roster for offense. The question is whether he gave up too much defense to get it. Michigan State visits Nov. 17, and Maryland waits in Las Vegas a week later.

18. Alabama (3-0, up 2). KenPom’s fifth-best offense at the fastest pace in the country, which is exactly what an Alabama team under Nate Oats looks like. Aden Holloway was cleared to return Nov. 9 after sitting out the first two games. Drew Fielder had 15 in the opener, and Amari Allen had 16 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists against Arkansas State, the fourth triple-double in program history. On Monday, London Jemison scored 20 in a 109-68 win over Oakland.

19. UCLA (2-0, new). The best win in the country so far. UCLA beat Arizona on a neutral floor with its bench and with Trent Perry’s 21. Mick Cronin’s teams usually defend and rarely shoot; this one has shooters. Then Nikola Kusturica, 17 years old, scored 29 against North Florida. The AP jumped UCLA 13 spots to ninth. KenPom has them 16th, and we’re more cautious still: one great win is one great win.

20. Arkansas (1-1, down 6). The loss to Virginia was a 19-point beating on a neutral floor, and Arkansas has now lost four straight to AP top-10 teams. Jordan Smith Jr. was 8-of-17. Jeremiah Wilkinson scored 23 in the opener and the freshmen have the talent to grow into this. But Bilas had Arkansas eighth, Torvik has them 27th and KenPom 28th, and after Sunday we’re much closer to Torvik. Michigan State on Thanksgiving in Detroit is the next real test.

Next five: Miami (2-1, Torvik 16th), Michigan (1-1), BYU (Robert Wright III scored 35 vs. Ohio State), St. John’s and Kentucky.

Who fell out: Michigan (12th in October), St. John’s (15th) and Miami (17th). Michigan’s frontcourt rebuild looks exactly as hard as it sounded, and KenPom has the Wolverines 30th. St. John’s has the talent, and both models moved the Red Storm up after a 104-65 win over Iona: KenPom to 19th, Torvik from 31st to 14th. They’re the first team we’d add back. But they led Monmouth by only 12 with nine minutes left.

The Outside Check

AP and Coaches are the Nov. 9 polls; CBS is its daily Top 25 And 1 from Nov. 10; KenPom and Torvik are through Nov. 9; Bilas is his Nov. 5 Index.

The top three are settled: every system has Duke, Florida and Illinois in its top four. Below that, three gaps stand out.

Kansas and Houston are better than the polls think. The AP has Kansas 15th; both models have the Jayhawks top five. The AP has Houston eighth and CBS 12th; KenPom has the Cougars third. Melvin Council Jr.’s broken foot gives the polls a fair reason to hold back on Kansas. We still side with the models on both.

The polls like UCLA and Tennessee more than anyone else does. The AP put UCLA ninth after the Arizona win; we have the Bruins 19th and Torvik has them 17th. The coaches have Tennessee ninth, the AP 11th; KenPom has the Vols 23rd and Bilas left them out entirely. Vanderbilt is the reverse: KenPom seventh, AP 22nd.

Virginia settled its argument; Texas hasn’t. Before Sunday, Virginia was sixth in Torvik and 16th in KenPom. After beating Arkansas by 19, the AP and coaches both have the Cavaliers sixth, KenPom has moved them up to 10th and Torvik to fourth. Texas is still eighth in KenPom and 18th in Torvik, and its first possible game against a ranked team is UCLA in San Diego on Nov. 27.

Best Vs. Most Accomplished

The power rankings answer who would win on a neutral floor. This answers a different question: who has actually beaten somebody. Two weeks in, those are almost entirely different lists.

Opponent and team ranks are KenPom through Nov. 9.

Only three of KenPom’s top 10 have beaten a top-50 team, and none has beaten a top-10 team. Duke, Houston, Illinois and Kansas are ranked on talent and margin against weak opponents. That changes fast: Duke plays Michigan State on Nov. 10 and Illinois on Nov. 17.

The Bracket

We’re projecting forward from two games of evidence and four weeks of eligibility news. That is thin, so these lean on the models and the rosters more than the results.

Projected No. 1 seeds: Duke, Florida, Illinois and Kansas. Three are holdovers from our preseason Final Four. Kansas replaces Arizona.

ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology agrees on three of the four. It has UConn on the top line instead of Kansas, which it puts on the 2-line with Virginia, Michigan State and Houston. Its bids by league: SEC 12, Big 12 11, Big Ten 11, ACC 7, Big East 5.

Final Four odds (ours):

Our top 20 combine for about 2.4 of the four spots; the rest belongs to the field.

Our Final Four, revised: Duke, Florida, Illinois, Kansas. In October we picked Arizona for the fourth spot. The Godfrey ruling is the reason for the change, not the UCLA loss.

Five Things We’ve Learned

1. Duke has the best team, and the numbers say so loudly. KenPom’s preseason rating for Duke was the highest in the system’s history, and two games in it has gone up, to +34.84. The Blue Devils beat Army by 34 with three projected top-17 picks on the roster and a 17-year-old who may go first in 2028. Florida is still No. 1 in both polls, but the betting market has flipped to Duke. The Dec. 1 game in Gainesville decides the argument, but Michigan State on Tuesday and Illinois next week come first.

2. Kansas is the team the eligibility rulings built. In August the Jayhawks weren’t a top-20 team. Then judges cleared Tre White and Melvin Council Jr., and then Kaufman-Renn arrived from Purdue with a sixth year. White scored 22 in the opener, Kaufman-Renn has missed twice in two games, and Tyran Stokes hasn’t needed to carry anything. The risk is the same thing that built the team: all three are playing under court orders that can be reversed. And the first loss came from somewhere else entirely, when Council broke his foot in practice on Nov. 9.

3. Arizona is the team the rulings broke. Our preseason case for Arizona said its title chances “rest on one ruling for one power forward.” The ruling went the wrong way. Without Godfrey, Arizona is thin up front and short on shooting. Kharchenkov’s 38 against UCLA was spectacular and still wasn’t enough. The defense is real, and Tommy Lloyd is 148-36. But Arizona’s draw from here (at Auburn, UConn at home, Maui, St. John’s at Madison Square Garden) leaves little room to sort it out.

4. The Michigan rebuild is exactly as hard as it looked. The defending champion lost the title-game rematch to UConn 85-77, shot 7-of-28 from three and turned it over 11 times in the first half. Elliot Cadeau fouled out with eight points. J.P. Estrella (19 and 9) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (18) were good, and Gayle is playing on an injunction. KenPom has Michigan 30th. Mike Boynton’s contract requires two of four benchmarks for a second year, including 24 regular-season wins or a top-four Big Ten finish. Neither looks likely from here.

5. The middle of the Big Ten is better than the polls think. Nebraska is 15th in KenPom and 13th in Torvik. UCLA beat Arizona. Indiana is 3-0 and 29th in Torvik after rebuilding with high-major transfers. Meanwhile Purdue is 1-2. The Big Ten looked like three contenders and a crowd. It now looks like three contenders, a strong second tier of Nebraska and UCLA, and a crowd that is deeper than expected. That matters for Maryland, which plays all of them.

The Eligibility Docket

The rulings that have changed rosters since the season began. Most of these players are eligible under temporary orders, and the NCAA is expected to appeal at least one of them.

Still waiting: Louisville’s Seth Trimble, Tennessee’s Jalen Washington, BYU’s Jaxon Kohler and Saint Louis’s Robbie Avila. In Congress, the Protect College Sports Act has passed the Senate and needs only the House.

The fair read is that the players are winning in the short run. The open question is what happens when the first temporary order is reversed in January, and a ranked team loses a starter mid-season.

Conference Races

Regular-season title odds, ours, with the October preview figure in parentheses. Each league sums to 100.

The remainder of each league goes to the rest of the field.

Conference Overviews

Team counts are from KenPom’s ratings through Nov. 9. Bid projections are from ESPN’s first bracket of the preseason and its Nov. 10 update, both assuming the new 76-team field.

SEC. The deepest league by every measure we have. Eleven SEC teams are in KenPom’s top 30, as many as the Big Ten and Big 12 combined at that level. Florida is the clear favorite, but the shape behind it has changed since October. Vanderbilt (KenPom seventh) and Alabama (12th) have looked like the second tier, while Tennessee, picked in the top four by most preseason panels, has looked like a bubble-to-safe team after its exhibitions. Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri and LSU are all in KenPom’s top 30. Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Georgia are in the top 60. The one sour note: Oklahoma lost to East Texas A&M as a 28.5-point favorite and has slipped to 65th. Twelve bids still looks right, and 13 is possible. ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has 12.

Big Ten. Fourteen teams in KenPom’s top 60, tied with the SEC, but built differently. The top three (Illinois, Michigan State and a rising Nebraska) are stronger than the SEC’s second tier. Then comes a large middle: UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin, all between 16th and 51st. Oregon is 58th and Maryland 59th, which puts both at the bottom of that middle group. For Maryland, that’s the problem in one line: in an 18-team league where 14 teams rate inside KenPom’s top 60, a 10-10 conference record might not stand out. Purdue’s 1-2 start is the early surprise; Matt Painter has missed the tournament four times in 22 seasons.

Big 12. The race changed more than any other in two weeks. In October, Arizona was a unanimous pick to win the league. Now Houston and Kansas are the top two Big 12 teams in both models, and Arizona is third, without RJ Godfrey. Iowa State (14th in KenPom) and Texas Tech (17th) are the next tier, and BYU (21st) has Robert Wright III playing like an All-American. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU fill out a deep middle. The league office’s goal of ten bids looks realistic, and ESPN’s latest bracketology already has 11, with Oklahoma State among its last four in. Keeping 11 depends on how many of the league’s fifth-year players keep their injunctions.

ACC. Duke and then everyone else, as expected. KenPom has four ACC teams in its top 30: Duke, Virginia, Louisville and Miami. Behind them, North Carolina (45th), Virginia Tech (48th) and Florida State (54th) are bubble teams in November. The ACC’s bid count will depend on the SEC/ACC Challenge on Dec. 1-2, where Duke at Florida, Texas at Louisville, Kentucky at Virginia and Alabama at Miami are the headliners. Seven bids is the ceiling unless the second tier wins some of those. ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has exactly seven, with NC State and Clemson among its last four in and Virginia Tech and Florida State just outside.

Big East. Two programs, as SB Nation’s Mike Rutherford said in the preseason. UConn beat the defending champion. St. John’s needed a late burst to put away Monmouth, then beat Iona 104-65 and has climbed to 19th in KenPom. Marquette (26th) is the early climber after a 12-20 season, and Villanova lost its opener in Rome. Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, Providence and DePaul are all in KenPom’s top 60, but five bids looks likelier than seven. ESPN’s latest bracketology has five, with Xavier and Providence among its first four out.

Elsewhere. Gonzaga is the only non-power team in KenPom’s top 40, 11th overall in its first Pac-12 season. Utah State (46th) and Boise State (53rd) give the new Pac-12 a chance at three bids. Saint Louis (44th) and VCU (56th) lead the Atlantic 10, and Grand Canyon (50th) is the new Mountain West’s best team. ESPN’s latest bracketology gives each of those three leagues two bids, with VCU among its last four in. High Point is 3-0 and 69th, the best team in a traditional one-bid league.

Player Of The Year Watch

The preseason consensus settled on Jeremy Fears Jr.: CBS’s preseason Player of the Year, and the pick of three of ESPN’s four writers. We had Thomas Haugh first. Neither has given anyone a reason to switch yet.

Watch list: Robert Wright III (35 vs. Ohio State), Ivan Kharchenkov (38 vs. UCLA), Keyshawn Hall (26 in his debut) and Pharrel Payne (28 at Georgetown). JT Toppin is targeting mid-December. David Mirkovic is still out with a foot injury.

Newcomers: Who Has Hit

Transfers

Freshmen

Also: Kansas’s Tyran Stokes had 27 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists against Duke in an exhibition, the performance that made him the early favorite to go first in the 2027 draft. UCLA’s Nikola Kusturica, 17, scored 29 against North Florida. Louisville’s Obinna Ekezie Jr. had 20 and 13 against Morehead State. Arkansas’s Jordan Smith Jr., the No. 2 recruit in the class, went 8-of-17 in the loss to Virginia.

Maryland

Record: 1-1. Beat Bucknell 96-67; lost at Georgetown 86-74.

Ratings: KenPom 59th (46th offense, 82nd defense), down from 53rd in the preseason and 57th last week. Torvik 49th (31st offense, 78th defense), up from 51st last week but down from 38th in the preseason.

The first two games showed both halves of what this roster was built to be. The good half is the glass. Maryland outrebounded Bucknell 54-22, including 28-6 on the offensive end, and Torvik has the Terps second in the country in offensive rebounding. Pharrel Payne looks fully healthy: 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting and 8-of-8 at the line at Georgetown.

The bad half is the three-point line, on both ends. Maryland is 10-of-48 from three (20.8%). Opponents are 27-of-61 (44.3%). Georgetown made 15 of 30. DJ Wagner is 0-of-8 and Bishop Boswell 1-of-7, while Mike McNair Jr., who shot 44.4% from three last season, has taken four threes in 42 minutes. Some of that regresses on its own. The closeouts don’t fix themselves.

The projection: We started at 21-11 and 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed. We’re holding there for now, though ESPN’s Nov. 10 bracketology has Maryland among its Next Four Out, just outside the field. Two games is too few to move off a full-season projection, but the early defense supports the models’ lower view. Virginia on Friday and Tennessee in Las Vegas will tell us whether to move.

Friday vs. Virginia: The Cavaliers come to College Park off a 19-point win over Arkansas in which they made 12 threes. That is the matchup problem in one number, because Maryland’s opponents are shooting 44.3% from three. ESPN’s predictor gave Virginia a 52.8% chance before the Arkansas game. The keys are the ones from our two-games-in piece: guard the arc, get Payne touches, find shots for McNair, and start with the intensity that was missing at Georgetown. Johann Grunloh is playing on an injured right ankle, which should give Payne and Buljan room inside. A home win over a top-10 team is the résumé line Maryland needs most in November.

What’s next: After Virginia, the Players Era in Las Vegas: Tennessee on Nov. 24, Iowa State or San Diego State on Nov. 26, and a third game Nov. 27. December opens at Ohio State (Dec. 6) and home against Michigan State (Dec. 9), with South Carolina in Baltimore on Dec. 19. A split against Virginia and Tennessee would keep the projection on track. Going 0-2 would leave the Terps chasing their non-conference résumé.

Around The State

Records and KenPom ranks through Nov. 9, in KenPom order.

The Board: Nov. 10th To Dec. 2nd

It starts Tuesday, the best night of the young season, and the stretch that follows is the busiest of the non-conference season: two Players Era events, Maui, Atlantis and the SEC/ACC Challenge.

Tuesday’s lines are CBS Sports’ as of Nov. 10; rankings are the AP’s. Later games have no posted line yet, so we’ll grade those straight up. Maryland in bold.

Predictions

Florida over Florida State, but Florida State covers +10. Florida played what CBS called a C+ game against Miami and still won by 10. On the road against freshman center Marcis Ponder, in a building that will be loud, the Gators should win by less. What it means: a road win over an ACC team, and not much more.

Duke over Michigan State, and Duke covers -6.5. Duke can play ten deep, and its bigs are the best group in the country against a Michigan State team still sorting out its center spot. Fears will have to be spectacular. What it means: a comfortable Duke win settles the No. 1 argument for us, and probably for the polls.

Vanderbilt over Memphis, and Vanderbilt covers -15. Memphis has beaten Iowa State and VCU behind Jayden Reid, but it is without big man Nemanja Popovic, and Vanderbilt has three good perimeter defenders to throw at Reid. What it means: a Vanderbilt rout would back up KenPom’s seventh-place rating.

Texas Tech over Illinois. Illinois is without Mirkovic and Jake Davis and is leaning on four freshmen. Texas Tech gets Jamichael Stillwell back, has Donovan Atwell (46% from three last season) and is 25-0 in non-conference home games under Grant McCasland. What it means: the first real road test for Illinois’s young backcourt, and our first chance to be wrong about the No. 3 team.

Kansas over Kentucky, but Kentucky covers +4.5. Without Council, Kansas will go big and win the glass. Kentucky has the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic and the length to keep it close. What it means: a Kansas win without its starting point guard would back up our No. 4 ranking.

Virginia over Maryland. More in the Maryland section. Virginia’s shooting against Maryland’s perimeter defense is the matchup, and so far it favors the Cavaliers. What it means: a Maryland win would be the best non-conference résumé line of the Buzz Williams era.

Arizona over Auburn. Motiejus Krivas against a rebuilt Auburn frontcourt that struggled to finish at the rim last season. What it means: Arizona needs road wins to stop the slide that started with UCLA.

Duke over Illinois. At Cameron, with Mirkovic likely still working back. What it means: if Duke wins this and the Champions Classic, it goes to Las Vegas as the clear No. 1.

Michigan State over Tennessee. Tennessee has won 45 straight home non-conference games, so this is a pick against a streak. But Fears against a backcourt that gave up 103 at Duke is the matchup we trust. What it means: a Tennessee loss would say the exhibitions weren’t noise.

Arizona over UConn. McKale Center, and an Arizona team that should have its rotation sorted by then. The closest call of the mid-November games. What it means: a home win over a top-five team would put Arizona back in the conversation.

Tennessee over Maryland. Both models have Tennessee about 35 spots higher, and Maryland has given up 44% from three. If the Terps’ shooting regresses toward normal, this is a coin flip. What it means: a Maryland win would be the first real résumé line for a bubble team.

Duke over UConn. Duke’s size against a UConn frontcourt that lost Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. The Huskies have the guards to keep it close. What it means: a Duke win, with Michigan State and Illinois already played, would make the Blue Devils the clear No. 1 entering Gainesville.

Michigan State over Arkansas. Fears against freshman Jordan Smith Jr. What it means: a win nine days after Tennessee would give Michigan State the best November résumé in the Big Ten.

Kansas over Villanova. Allen Fieldhouse, and a Villanova team that lost its opener. What it means: nothing new for Kansas. A Villanova win would put the Wildcats back in the Big East’s top tier.

Florida over Duke. The closest call on the board. Duke is the better team by a hair in both models; Florida is at home, with the frontcourt to make Duke’s bigs work. What it means: the winner leaves the first week of December as the No. 1 overall seed in most projections.

Louisville over Texas. Home floor, and Flory Bidunga against a Texas front line still finding its rotation. Mikey Lewis may be back for Texas by then. What it means: the first real test of the Cardinals’ $20 million roster.

Virginia over Kentucky. Torvik’s view of Virginia against a Kentucky team that shoots well and defends less. What it means: a Kentucky loss would add to Mark Pope’s pressure in year three.

Miami over Alabama. Home court in a game the models rate close to even. Alabama plays the fastest pace in the country; Miami will have to keep up. What it means: Miami needs a top-25 win after losing to Florida.

The tally: This is the first board: 18 picks straight up, and five against the spread where a line was posted. We’ll grade every one in the next update and keep a running record for the season.

Sources: KenPom and Torvik ratings through Nov. 9; AP and Coaches polls (Nov. 9); CBS Sports’ Top 25 And 1 (Nov. 10), Champions Classic NBA Draft guide and Nov. 10 picks and lines; CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 (Nov. 5) and Top 100 And 1 teams; the Bilas Index (ESPN, Nov. 5); ESPN’s bracketology (Nov. 10) and Champions Classic preview; ESPN game recaps and its Mike Boynton feature; athletics department recaps from Towson, UMBC and Morgan State; ESPN team schedules; Field Level Media. All rankings, percentages and projections are our own.

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Texas Tech is No. 9 in the first version and unranked in the second. Gonzaga is 14th or 22nd. St. John’s is 10th or 20th. In August, LSU had four confirmed players on its roster.

That is the best shorthand for the season ahead. The sport’s rankings now depend on its court dockets. The NCAA’s new five-for-five eligibility rule passed in June and did not cover last year’s seniors, so they sued. A judge in Indiana granted nearly 90 of them a preliminary injunction. Kansas got two starters back that way, at least for now. Florida got a guard from its 2025 title team. Arizona’s case as a title favorite rests on one ruling for one power forward.

Two other facts frame everything below.

The field is 76. The men’s and women’s committees voted to expand the NCAA Tournament from 68 teams, starting this season. ESPN’s first bracket projects 12 SEC teams, 11 from the Big 12 and 11 from the Big Ten. The bubble is now a place where a 9-9 league record lives comfortably.

The champion lost its coach. Michigan went 37-3 and won the title. Then Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks. The last coach to win a championship and leave immediately was Larry Brown at Kansas in 1988, and the Jayhawks missed the next tournament. Michigan also lost three lottery picks, then lost five-star freshman Brandon McCoy to a torn ACL in August.

So the top is unsettled in a way it rarely is. Both major models have Duke first. Torvik puts Arizona second and Florida third; KenPom has Florida second and Houston third. CBS and ESPN both have Florida first. Nobody has the defending champion in the top nine.

The season tips Nov. 1, when Villanova plays Notre Dame in Rome. Here’s ours.

Top 20 Power Rankings Entering 2026-27

Power ranking is a neutral-floor question. Final Four percentage is a different one: it folds in eligibility risk, injury timelines and how fragile a roster is. That is why Texas Tech can sit 16th here with a ceiling well above it.

Every model number in this piece comes from Bart Torvik’s preseason T-Rank projections unless another source is named.

These sum to roughly 2.8 of the four spots. The rest belongs to the field: Nebraska, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, UCLA, USC, Purdue, Kentucky, BYU, Missouri and Indiana.

Who’s Waiting On A Judge

Thirteen of our top 20 have at least one player waiting on an eligibility ruling, per ESPN’s Oct. 11 roster tracker. Seven do not: Duke, Illinois, UConn, Michigan State, Virginia, Texas and Arkansas. Our rankings assume the players below are available. Where a ruling goes the other way, so does the team.

Also waiting: Missouri (Mark Mitchell), BYU (Jaxon Kohler), Clemson (Dillon Hunter), Oklahoma State (Parsa Fallah, Kashie Natt), Oklahoma (B.J. Edwards, Duke Brennan), Providence (Dink Pate and two others), Creighton (Brody Robinson, Fred King), Xavier (Filip Borovicanin), Georgetown (Vince Iwuchukwu), Minnesota (Cade Tyson), Penn State (Josh Reed), Indiana (Sam Alexis) and LSU, which has six players in limbo and nobody returning from last season.

Consensus check (top ten)

Our biggest gaps from the human polls: Houston ten spots higher than ESPN, Virginia six spots higher than ESPN, and Texas four spots lower than CBS.

The market mostly agrees at the top. FanDuel’s six shortest prices belong to our top six, with UConn third instead of fifth. The splits come after that. FanDuel has Texas Tech at +2200, tied for seventh, where we have the Red Raiders 16th. It has Houston at +3000, tied for 11th, where we have the Cougars eighth. And it prices Kentucky (+3500) ahead of the defending champion, with LSU level with Michigan at +4000.

The second model. KenPom’s first ratings, released Oct. 12th, agree with Torvik at the top: Duke, Florida, Illinois and Arizona are top five in both. KenPom backs us hardest on Houston, third with the No. 1 defense in the country. It does not back us on Virginia (15th) or Louisville (17th). Both models have UConn 11th, which makes us, CBS and ESPN the high voices there. And KenPom has Iowa State sixth with the No. 2 defense, 12 spots above where we have the Cyclones.

Five Teams We Like Better Than The Projections

1. Virginia. ESPN has the Cavaliers 13th. Torvik has them fourth, with the No. 2 offense in the country. Ryan Odom won 30 games in year one and brought back Thijs De Ridder, CBS’s preseason ACC Player of the Year, plus Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory and Johann Grunloh. FanDuel prices them 10th at +2500. The portal class drew no headlines because all four transfers came from mid-majors. That’s a team being ranked on brand, when the roster says top ten. KenPom is less convinced, at 15th, so this case rests on Torvik. One more thing in its favor: no Virginia player is waiting on an eligibility ruling.

2. Nebraska. Unranked by CBS, in ESPN’s “next five,” and 13th in Torvik with a projected 23-9 record. The Huskers were picked fifth in the Big Ten and return Pryce Sandfort, a preseason all-conference pick who averaged 18.1 points and shot 41.6% from three. The models see a top-15 team. The polls haven’t caught up, and KenPom agrees with the model at 16th. The risk is the defense: Nebraska lost four of its best defenders, and CBS expects a real step back from a unit Torvik still ranks 11th.

3. Indiana. The Hoosiers went 18-14 and missed the tournament, so the Big Ten media picked them ninth. Darian DeVries then rebuilt the frontcourt with 6-10 Aiden Sherrell (Alabama) and 7-2 Samet Yigitoglu (SMU), and added Notre Dame’s Markus Burton to run the offense. Torvik has only 6.7% of last year’s minutes returning and still ranks Indiana 28th. That is a statement about the incoming talent. KenPom is cooler, at 47th, so this one is more our call than the models’.

4. Auburn. A 1-7 stretch cost the Tigers a bid last year, and they won the NIT instead. Steven Pearl’s answer was age. All five transfers are entering their fourth college season, and the two international additions will be 24 and 22. Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton both return. ESPN’s bracket has Auburn as a 9 seed, and we think that’s the floor. KenPom has the Tigers 25th.

5. Oklahoma State. ESPN’s last team in the field. Steve Lutz kept point guard Kanye Clary, signed two top-35 freshmen including McDonald’s All-American Latrell Allmond, and added shooting and size in the portal. The Big 12 wants ten tournament teams for the first time. The Cowboys are the tenth. Two rotation pieces, Parsa Fallah and Kashie Natt, are waiting on eligibility rulings.

Also considered: Iowa (Ben McCollum returns more than half his scoring and adds a 7-3 center), Villanova (ranked 347th in block rate last year and now has 7-4 Luigi Suigo), West Virginia, and USC.

Five Teams We Like Less Than The Projections

1. Texas. CBS has the Longhorns fifth and ESPN has them seventh. Torvik has them 16th. Texas went 21-15 and 9-9 in the SEC, lost five of its last six before Selection Sunday, squeaked into the First Four as an 11 seed and got hot for two weeks. One of the top two scorers returns. The talent is real, but a top-five ranking asks five transfers and two freshmen to fit together by January in the deepest league in the country. DraftKings prices Texas fourth in the SEC, behind Alabama and Tennessee, and KenPom has the Longhorns 10th.

2. Texas Tech. ESPN’s No. 9 team is also ESPN’s unranked team, depending on three court rulings. On top of that, JT Toppin is coming off a February ACL tear and is not expected to start the season. That is two separate things that both have to break right. We have the Red Raiders 16th and think that’s generous if either one doesn’t. FanDuel has them at +2200, tied for the seventh-shortest price on the board. KenPom is also higher than we are, at 12th, so this fade is about availability more than talent.

3. Missouri. ESPN has the Tigers 16th and Torvik has them 41st with a projected 8-10 league record. The gap is Mark Mitchell, the All-SEC forward who needs a fifth year. Without him ESPN drops them to 19th, and the offense leans on a freshman point guard in a league with 12 projected tournament teams. DraftKings has Missouri 13th of 16 in the SEC title market at +5600, and KenPom has the Tigers 48th.

4. North Carolina. Michael Malone has an NBA title and no college head coaching experience. His first roster is thin up front, and 7-footer Sayon Keita was still not on campus over the summer. CBS’s panel picked the Heels fifth in the ACC. Torvik has them 48th nationally, behind Virginia Tech, Clemson and NC State. DraftKings has them eighth in the ACC at +4700, and KenPom has them 37th.

5. Purdue. Picked sixth in the Big Ten after three straight years as the preseason favorite, and that may still be high. CBS’s panel has the Boilermakers eighth. KenPom is kinder, at 24th nationally and fifth in the league. Purdue returns 38.6% of its scoring. Its most notable newcomer, Caden Pierce, did not play basketball last season. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are all gone.

Fades the market has already made, so we won’t take credit: Michigan (22nd at ESPN), Kentucky (25th at ESPN, 29-26 against high-major teams under Mark Pope), UCF.

Conference Deep Dives

The SEC

Overview. Sixteen teams, and ESPN’s first bracket puts 12 of them in the field. CBS argues 11 of the 16 rosters are Top 25 caliber. The reason is money. Even the league’s poorest programs have close to $8 million for a roster, and the richest are past $20 million.

CBS’s panel was unanimous: Florida first, Texas second. The league sent a record 14 teams to the 2025 tournament and 10 last year, when it had a quarter of the Sweet 16 and none of the Final Four. Seven of last season’s 15 All-SEC players return, and LSU’s Will Wade is the only new head coach.

It shows in the portal ledger. The SEC kept 10 of its top 30 scorers from last season and took 11 top-30 scorers from the other four major conferences. No league has more proven production.

It also has a clear No. 1. Florida won the league by three games and brought nearly everyone back.

The market. DraftKings makes Florida +108 to win the regular-season title, about a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. After that it splits from us: Alabama is second at +620 and Tennessee third at +920, with Texas fourth at +1100. We have Texas second, and we are already lower on the Longhorns than CBS or ESPN.

1. Florida — SEC title odds: 38%

• Strength: The frontcourt. Thomas Haugh (17.1 points), Alex Condon (14.9) and Rueben Chinyelu (11.2) all started for the 2025 champions. Todd Golden has produced back-to-back top-10 defenses.
• Weakness: Perimeter shooting. Florida shot 31.2% from three last season, 321st nationally, and Haugh shot 32.6%.
• The question: This same core lost to Iowa in the second round as a No. 1 seed. Was that a bad night or a tell?
• Watch: Denzel Aberdeen’s injunction. If it holds, the 2025 title team’s first guard off the bench starts next to Boogie Fland.
• Circle: vs. Duke, Dec. 1, in Gainesville. The opener is Miami in Tampa on Nov. 2.

2. Texas — 11%

• Strength: Size, free throws and the No. 1 incoming class in the country by 247Sports’ combined ranking. Matas Vokietaitis drew 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes, and new point guard Isaiah Johnson was in the 94th percentile in free throw rate at Colorado.
• Weakness: Shooting and continuity. David Punch made 11 threes all of last season, and Mikey Lewis will miss non-conference time with a foot injury.
• The question: Sean Miller signed Marcus Spears Jr., who was the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class before reclassifying. Is he ready to matter in March a year early?
• Circle: at Louisville, Dec. 1. Then Florida comes to Austin on Jan. 2.

3. Tennessee — 10%

• Strength: Scoring, for once. Juke Harris (21.4 points at Wake Forest), Jalen Haralson (16.2 at Notre Dame) and Terrence Hill Jr. (15.0 at VCU) can all create.
• Weakness: Everything is new. The top six scorers left, and Torvik has 14% of last year’s minutes returning. Vanderbilt transfer Jalen Washington is still awaiting eligibility.
• The question: Rick Barnes has had a top-five defense five times in six seasons and never an offense better than 17th. Can he flip the formula without losing the defense?
• Circle: vs. Michigan State, Nov. 17, in Knoxville. Maryland in Las Vegas is a week later.

4. Arkansas — 8%

• Strength: Talent. John Calipari has the No. 1 recruiting class, led by Jordan Smith Jr., a projected top-five pick.
• Weakness: Age. Billy Richmond III is the only one of last year’s top four scorers back, on a team replacing unanimous SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr.
• The question: The rest of the sport got older. Can Calipari’s freshman model still reach a Final Four, something he hasn’t done in more than a decade?
• Circle: vs. Virginia, Nov. 8, in Washington. Michigan State on Thanksgiving in Detroit and Arizona on Dec. 19 in Phoenix follow.

5. Alabama — 8%

• Strength: Nate Oats. Alabama has been a top-three halfcourt offense in the SEC for six straight seasons. Aden Holloway (16.8 points, 44% from three) and Amari Allen are a first-round-caliber backcourt.
• Weakness: Labaron Philon is gone, and with him the low turnover rate.
• The question: Holloway is due back Nov. 9 after missing two games, but ESPN’s Oct. 11 roster tracker still lists him in limbo. Is the off-court drama finished?
• Circle: vs. Houston, Dec. 8, at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic.

6. Vanderbilt — 5%

• Strength: Tyler Tanner, who averaged 19.5 points, made first-team All-SEC and pulled out of the draft. Vanderbilt started 16-0 last season.
• Weakness: Five new rotation players around him.
• The question: Vanderbilt has not reached the second weekend since 2007. Is this the roster?
• Circle: at Ohio State, Nov. 24.

On Kentucky outside the top six. Mark Pope is 29-26 against high-major opponents and enters year three with his job in question. He landed the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic, who made 136 threes at a 48.7% clip at Iowa State, and kept center Malachi Moreno. CBS’s panel has Kentucky sixth. Torvik projects 9-9 in the league. That would not be enough.

The other 20% belongs to Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas A&M.

The Big Ten

Overview. The defending national champion plays here and was picked third. Illinois took 18 of 28 first-place votes in the media poll, Michigan State took nine and Michigan took one. Last year only two teams received a first-place vote, and they met in the conference title game.

All five CBS panelists picked Illinois first and Michigan State second. Four of the five had Michigan third.

The league is deep in the same way the SEC is. ESPN projects 11 Big Ten teams in the field, and Torvik has nine in his top 31. Purdue, the preseason favorite for three straight years, was picked sixth.

One late change: Oregon’s Dana Altman retired less than a month before the season, and assistant Tony Stubblefield, the former DePaul head coach, is the interim for 2026-27. The Ducks were already ESPN’s first team out.

The market. DraftKings has Illinois at +120, about a 38% chance with the margin removed, then Michigan State (+475) and Michigan (+730). Nebraska is fourth at +940, which is where we have the Huskers and two spots above CBS’s panel.

1. Illinois — Big Ten title odds: 34%

• Strength: The best offense in the country by Torvik’s numbers. No team gets more threes from its frontcourt, and David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic and Tomislav Ivisic all return from a Final Four team.
• Weakness: The backcourt is new. Stefan Vaaks (15.8 points at Providence) and freshman Quentin Coleman replace Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, and Vaaks is not a defender. Mirkovic is also coming back from offseason foot surgery.
• The question: Torvik has the defense 18th. Is that good enough to win six games in March?
• Circle: at Duke, Nov. 17. Then UConn in Chicago on Dec. 4, and Michigan State’s only visit to Champaign on Feb. 5.

2. Michigan State — 20%

• Strength: Jeremy Fears Jr., the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year. He has Coen Carr, a healthy Kaleb Glenn and a top-10 recruiting class around him.
• Weakness: Center and turnovers. Carson Cooper is gone, and 7-2 Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke is not his equal defensively. Michigan State turned it over on 17.7% of its Big Ten possessions, 16th in the league.
• The question: CBS calls this the best Michigan State offense in years. Tom Izzo’s teams always defend and rebound. Do they finally score with the top of the league?
• Circle: vs. Duke, Nov. 10, in Chicago at the Champions Classic. At Tennessee a week later.

3. Michigan — 10%

• Strength: Elliot Cadeau was the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player, and Trey McKenney is on most breakout lists. Mike Boynton kept the roster together after Dusty May left.
• Weakness: Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara were the best frontcourt in the sport. Their replacements, Moustapha Thiam and J.P. Estrella, are talented and unproven at this level. Projected starting wing Roddy Gayle Jr. is waiting on a fifth-year ruling.
• The question: Boynton got a two-year deal. Is this an audition or a succession?
• Circle: vs. UConn, Nov. 6, in Boston. A title-game rematch in the first week.

4. Nebraska — 8%

• Strength: Offense. Pryce Sandfort made 129 threes and shot 70% at the rim, and Nebraska was in the 99th percentile in efficiency off cuts. All five projected starters can pass, dribble and shoot.
• Weakness: Defense. Sam Hoiberg, Berke Buyuktuncel, Rienk Mast and Jamarques Lawrence are all gone.
• The question: Torvik ranks this defense 11th. CBS puts the odds of another top-10 unit near zero and picked the Huskers sixth. We side with the model, narrowly.
• Circle: at Creighton, Dec. 5.

5. UCLA — 7%

• Strength: Three starters back from a 24-win team, plus Texas Tech transfer Jaylen Petty.
• Weakness: Rim protection. The Bruins also missed on several high-profile portal targets.
• The question: Nikola Kusturica turned 17 in April and may be the No. 1 pick in 2028. How fast does he adjust?
• Circle: vs. Arizona, Nov. 2, in Las Vegas on opening night. Gonzaga in Anaheim on Dec. 5.

6. USC — 4%

• Strength: Five McDonald’s All-Americans. Rodney Rice was averaging more than 20 points before he got hurt, and Alijah Arenas is a 2027 draft name.
• Weakness: Health and shot distribution. Eric Reibe and KJ Lewis spent much of the offseason recovering from injuries.
• The question: USC went 18-14 and missed the tournament. Is this Eric Musselman’s most talented team or just his most expensive?
• Circle: vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 13, in Fort Worth, as reported. USC has not published a full schedule.

The other 17% belongs to Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland. Maryland, picked 12th, gets its own section below.

The Big 12

Overview. Sixteen teams, eight in last year’s tournament, and the top two picks in the 2026 NBA Draft in BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson. The league office has said its goal is ten tournament teams. ESPN’s first bracket gives it 11.

Three of Torvik’s top eight are here: Arizona, Houston and Kansas. All five CBS panelists picked Arizona to win the league. They split three ways on second.

The market. DraftKings has Arizona at +205, about a 28% chance with the margin removed. Kansas (+415) and Houston (+425) are effectively level behind it, then Iowa State (+560) and Texas Tech (+680). The same Texas Tech team that is tied for seventh on FanDuel’s national title board is fifth in its own league.

1. Arizona — Big 12 title odds: 30%

• Strength: Defense. Motiejus Krivas is a 7-2 rim protector, Ivan Kharchenkov is one of the best wing defenders in the league, and Torvik ranks the unit second nationally.
• Weakness: Turnover. Koa Peat left, two of the top five scorers return, and both point guards are transfers.
• The question: Tommy Lloyd turned down North Carolina after taking Arizona to its first Final Four since 2001. Can five-star freshman Caleb Holt make it two straight?
• Circle: vs. UConn, Nov. 18, in Tucson. The rest of the slate is UCLA, at Auburn, the Maui Invitational, St. John’s at Madison Square Garden and Arkansas.

2. Houston — 17%

• Strength: The floor. Houston has finished in KenPom’s top four every year Joseph Tugler has been on the roster, and he was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2025.
• Weakness: Scoring. Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Chris Cenac are gone. Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty combined for 9.2 points per game.
• The question: Is LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. the next Houston point guard who looks better in this system than he did anywhere else?
• Circle: vs. Alabama, Dec. 8, in the Jimmy V Classic. Florida is a possible opponent in Las Vegas on Nov. 18.

3. Kansas — 16%

• Strength: Tyran Stokes, a 6-8 wing who is CBS’s pick for both Big 12 Player and Freshman of the Year. No freshman has won the league’s top award since Cade Cunningham in 2021.
• Weakness: Recent history. Kansas has finished tied for fifth, sixth and tied for third in the last three seasons and has not reached a Sweet 16 since the 2022 title.
• The question: Bill Self is 63, was hospitalized with AFib last season and considered retiring in the spring. Is this the last one?
• Circle: vs. Kentucky, Nov. 10, in Chicago. At UConn on Dec. 12.

4. Texas Tech — 11%

• Strength: JT Toppin, when he plays. He was the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year and was better last season.
• Weakness: Availability, in every sense. Toppin’s knee, and the eligibility of Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell.
• The question: Texas Tech has never won an outright Big 12 regular-season title. With everyone available, this is the roster that could.
• Circle: vs. Illinois, Nov. 10, in Lubbock. Duke at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 21.

5. Iowa State — 11%

• Strength: Defense at all three levels, ranked fifth by Torvik. Tamin Lipsey has started 137 games and won an NCAA Tournament game every year, if a court clears him for a fifth.
• Weakness: Offense, ranked 54th. Milan Momcilovic left for a reported $6 million at Kentucky, and Killyan Toure has an offseason shoulder injury.
• The question: T.J. Otzelberger has never missed the tournament in Ames. Who scores?
• Circle: vs. Purdue, Dec. 6, in Ames.

6. BYU — 5%

• Strength: Rob Wright (18.1 points, 4.6 assists) nearly left for Kentucky and stayed. Kevin Young has produced top-12 offenses in both of his seasons.
• Weakness: Size, unless Michigan State transfer Jaxon Kohler gets a fifth year.
• The question: Is Bruce Branch III, the No. 6 recruit, BYU’s third straight lottery pick?
• Circle: vs. Ohio State, Nov. 2, in Salt Lake City. Kansas visits Provo on Jan. 9.

The other 10% belongs to Baylor, Cincinnati, TCU and West Virginia.

The ACC

Overview. Eighteen teams. The league sent four to the tournament in 2025 and eight in 2026, and ESPN’s first bracket has seven in the 76-team field. All five CBS panelists picked Duke first.

Behind Duke is the most interesting second tier in the country. Virginia, Louisville and Miami are all in Torvik’s top 20, and each was picked second by at least one CBS voter. Five programs have new head coaches: North Carolina (Michael Malone), NC State (Justin Gainey), Syracuse (Gerry McNamara), Boston College (Luke Murray) and Georgia Tech (Scott Cross).

The market. DraftKings has Duke at -128, about a 47% chance with the margin removed. It then disagrees with us: Louisville is second at +400, with Miami (+660) just ahead of Virginia (+680). We have Virginia second on Torvik’s numbers and the returning core.

1. Duke — ACC title odds: 47%

• Strength: Depth. Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr return, Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell (19.1 points) arrives, and the No. 2 recruiting class includes Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Cameron Williams. Duke can go ten deep.
• Weakness: There is no Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer to build the offense around.
• The question: Jon Scheyer has won 70 games in two years and lost both seasons on late collapses, to Houston in the 2025 Final Four and UConn in the 2026 Elite Eight. Does that follow him until he wins a title?
• Circle: vs. Illinois, Nov. 17, at Cameron. It comes a week after Michigan State, eight days before UConn in Las Vegas and two weeks before a trip to Florida.

2. Virginia — 15%

• Strength: Shooting at all five spots, and Thijs De Ridder, a 23-year-old former pro who averaged 15.6 points as a freshman.
• Weakness: The ceiling of a roster built on mid-major transfers.
• The question: Virginia finished second last year after being picked fifth. Was 30 wins the new level under Ryan Odom?
• Circle: at Maryland, Nov. 13, five days after Arkansas in Washington. Kentucky visits Dec. 2, and UConn is at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20.

3. Louisville — 15%

• Strength: Flory Bidunga, the top-ranked player in the portal, with 145 blocks in 69 career games. Opposing guards talk about him differently.
• Weakness: Pat Kelsey has never coached a top-20 defense, and almost nobody on this roster played for him last year. Projected starter Seth Trimble is waiting on a fifth-year ruling.
• The question: Louisville has not reached the second weekend since 2015. A roster near $20 million has to.
• Circle: vs. Texas, Dec. 1. At Kentucky on Dec. 12.

4. Miami — 11%

• Strength: A physical frontcourt with Georgia transfer Somto Cyril, and wing Shelton Henderson, who averaged 13.8 points as a freshman.
• Weakness: Depth at guard. Michigan transfer L.J. Cason is not expected to play after an ACL tear.
• The question: Malik Reneau. With him, ESPN has Miami 11th. Without him, 14th.
• Circle: vs. Florida, Nov. 2, in Tampa. Alabama visits Dec. 2.

5. Clemson — 3%

• Strength: Brad Brownell’s baseline. Clemson has made four of the last six tournaments.
• Weakness: Four transfers are projected to start, and two rotation players are coming off knee injuries.
• The question: Does Dillon Hunter, who started 35 games last season, get a fifth year?
• Circle: vs. Auburn, Dec. 1.

6. Virginia Tech — 3%

• Strength: The top two scorers, Ben Hammond and Amani Hansberry, return from a 19-win team. Torvik ranks the Hokies 33rd. DraftKings has them sixth in the ACC at +2700.
• Weakness: Seven transfers to work in.
• The question: Is this the year Mike Young ends a tournament drought that dates to 2022?
• Circle: at West Virginia, Dec. 5.

On North Carolina outside the top six. CBS’s panel has the Tar Heels fifth. We don’t, for the reasons in the fade section: a first-time college head coach, a roster reported at $20 million with no settled center, and a Torvik ranking of 48th. If Sayon Keita is cleared and is what the scouts say, we’ll be wrong by Christmas.

The other 6% belongs to North Carolina, NC State and Florida State.

The Big East

Overview. Eleven teams and, for two years running, two programs. SB Nation’s Mike Rutherford put it best: the league went from the most competitive conference in the sport to the Dan Hurley vs. Rick Pitino show. ESPN’s bracket still finds seven Big East bids in a 76-team field, which says more about the field than the league.

All five CBS panelists picked UConn first and St. John’s second. St. John’s is the two-time defending regular-season and tournament champion, something no Big East school had done before. UConn is 126-28 over the last four seasons and 18-2 in the NCAA Tournament. Three programs have new coaches: Providence (Bryan Hodgson), Creighton (Alan Huss) and Butler (Ronald Nored).

The market. DraftKings sees close to a coin flip: UConn +152 and St. John’s +164, roughly 34% and 33% with the margin removed. Marquette is third at +700, just ahead of Villanova at +760.

1. UConn — Big East title odds: 38%

• Strength: The backcourt. Silas Demary Jr. averaged 5.9 assists and is the preseason Player of the Year. Braylon Mullins beat Duke at the buzzer in the Elite Eight.
• Weakness: Offense, relatively. Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. are gone, Solo Ball is redshirting, and Torvik ranks the offense 39th.
• The question: Can Dan Hurley win a third title in five years with seven transfers and three freshmen?
• Circle: vs. Duke, Nov. 25, in Las Vegas, an Elite Eight rematch. Also Michigan on Nov. 6, at Arizona on Nov. 18 and Illinois on Dec. 4.

2. St. John’s — 30%

• Strength: Wing talent. Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou (17.8 points) pulled out of the draft late, and Ian Jackson returns.
• Weakness: Four of the top five scorers left, Donnie Freeman is out for the season with an Achilles injury, and four players, more than 20% of the roster, are waiting on judges.
• The question: Which roster shows up? ESPN has the full version 10th and the stripped version 20th.
• Circle: vs. Arizona, Dec. 5, at Madison Square Garden.

3. Villanova — 11%

• Strength: Size. Kevin Willard added 7-4 Luigi Suigo, Oregon’s Kwame Evans Jr. and Ohio State’s Devin Royal to a team that returns leading scorer Tyler Perkins.
• Weakness: A defense that ranked 347th in block rate has to prove the fix on the floor.
• The question: Is Villanova the team that closes the gap to the top two?
• Circle: at Kansas, Nov. 27. Michigan visits Philadelphia on Nov. 21.

4. Marquette — 9%

• Strength: Nigel James Jr., the reigning Big East Freshman of the Year (16.4 points, 4.9 assists, 2.0 steals), and more than 60% of last year’s scoring.
• Weakness: That scoring came from a 12-20 team.
• The question: Shaka Smart finally used the portal. Torvik ranks Marquette 27th. CBS’s panel picked it fourth. Rutherford has it seventh and wants to see it first. Who’s right?
• Circle: at Michigan, Nov. 11. Virginia in the Bahamas on Nov. 25.

5. Creighton — 5%

• Strength: Retention. Jackson McAndrew, Jasen Green, Austin Swartz, Isaac Traudt and Hudson Greer return after combining for about 39 points per game. McAndrew barely played last season because of injury.
• Weakness: The Bluejays went 16-18, their first losing season in more than a decade. Providence transfer Oswin Erhunmwunse was brought in to fix the defense. Two more transfers, Brody Robinson and Fred King, are waiting on rulings.
• The question: Alan Huss left High Point with the promise of this job and waited one season for it. Is his first year better than Greg McDermott’s last?
• Circle: vs. Michigan, Nov. 24, in Las Vegas.

6. Providence — 4%

• Strength: Bryan Hodgson, who took South Florida to the tournament in his only season there, and Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Miles Byrd.
• Weakness: A mostly new roster around holdover Ryan Mela, with three more players, including former G Leaguer Dink Pate, waiting on eligibility.
• The question: Byrd shot 40% from the field and Malik Mack shot 38% last season. Does Hodgson’s system fix that?
• Circle: vs. Nebraska, Nov. 7, at Mohegan Sun.

The other 3% belongs to Xavier and Georgetown.

The Best Of The Rest

Overview. Realignment broke up the Mountain West and rebuilt the Pac-12 around Gonzaga. The result is one clear best league outside the top five and a lot of one-bid anxiety everywhere else, even with eight more spots in the field.

The mid-major to know outside those leagues is High Point, which Torvik projects at 28-4 and 15-1 in the Big South.

The structural note is the one CBS made: the best programs from the Mountain and Pacific time zones are now split across two leagues because football money required it. A merged basketball conference would have been a real sixth power. Instead there are two good ones.

Maryland: Year Two Of Buzz Williams

The projection. We have Maryland at 21-11 and 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed. That is more optimistic than the field. Torvik projects 18-12 and 10-10 and ranks the Terps 38th. KenPom is lower still: 53rd overall, 49th on offense and 56th on defense, which puts Maryland 13th in the Big Ten. The Big Ten media picked them 12th and CBS’s panel picked them 11th. ESPN’s bracket has them as the second team out of a 76-team field. FanDuel lists the Terps at 100-to-1 to win the title, the same price as Ohio State, Iowa and Villanova. DraftKings has them 10th in the Big Ten title market at +3800.

Our full breakdown is here: Maryland Basketball 2026-27: Year Two of Buzz Williams. The short version follows.

• Strength: The frontcourt and the glass. Pharrel Payne, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, is in his third season with Williams. New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan was the only Mountain West player to average a double-double and set a school record with 141 offensive rebounds.
• Also a strength: Ball security. DJ Wagner had 85 assists to 23 turnovers last season and Tennessee transfer Bishop Boswell had 106 to 53. Last year Maryland played shooting guards at the point.
• Weakness: Shooting, and health. Mike McNair Jr. (44.4% from three, fifth nationally) and Maban Jabriel (44.0%) are the proven shooters. Payne played 10 games last season and Robert Jennings II played three.
• The question: Does the defense match the reputation? Williams was hired for it and finished 125th. Against top-50 opponents Maryland allowed 1.27 points per possession, last in Division I. Five of the additions were brought in specifically to defend.
• The freshman: Baba Oladotun of Silver Spring, 6-10 and No. 10 nationally, is the second-highest-rated signee in program history behind Diamond Stone. This may be his only season in College Park.
• Circle: Virginia at home on Nov. 13 and Tennessee in Las Vegas on Nov. 24. Both are in our top 11. Then South Carolina at CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore on Dec. 19.

The bar. Unlike much of the league, Maryland has nobody waiting on an eligibility ruling. After a 12-21 first season, and with a roster reported north of $14 million, missing a 76-team field would be close to disqualifying. The season likely turns on five road games against teams projected below Maryland: at Iowa (Jan. 9), Penn State (Jan. 30), Oregon (Feb. 17), Washington (Feb. 20) and Rutgers (Feb. 28). KenPom has Iowa (43rd) ahead of Maryland, so by that model the list is four games, not five.

Around the state. Torvik’s preseason ranks for the rest of the local Division I programs, out of 365: Towson 179, UMBC 261, Mount St. Mary’s 292, Navy 306, Loyola 337, Coppin State 356, Morgan State 361, Maryland Eastern Shore 365. Towson is projected 17-14 and UMBC 17-14. Several local players moved up this offseason: Towson’s Tyler Tejada (17.7 points) to Cincinnati, Loyola’s Jacob Theodosiou (13.1) to Duke, Mount St. Mary’s Luke McEldon (11.7) to Northwestern and UMES’s Justin Monden to Indiana.

National Unit Rankings

Top 8 Backcourts

1. UConn — Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins could both be preseason All-Americans. Demary is also one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
2. Duke — The deepest point guard room in the sport: John Blackwell, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and five-star freshman Deron Rippey Jr.
3. Michigan State — Jeremy Fears Jr. is a Player of the Year favorite, and freshmen Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr. give Tom Izzo scoring he hasn’t had.
4. Alabama — Aden Holloway shot 44% from three, and Amari Allen is a projected first-round pick.
5. Vanderbilt — Tyler Tanner is on CBS’s preseason All-America first team, and Ace Glass averaged 16.4 points at Washington State.
6. Michigan — Elliot Cadeau ran a title team, and Trey McKenney is a second-team All-America pick at CBS as a sophomore.
7. BYU — Rob Wright, Collin Chandler (41% from three) and Bruce Branch III. The whole offense is built around Wright’s pick-and-roll game.
8. USC — Rodney Rice, KJ Lewis and Alijah Arenas, if they share.

Just missed: Florida (Boogie Fland and, pending the courts, Denzel Aberdeen), Arkansas, Louisville, Texas A&M (PJ Haggerty averaged 23.4 points at Kansas State), New Mexico.

Top 8 Frontcourts

1. Florida — Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu. ESPN calls it the best frontcourt in the country, and all three have a title ring.
2. Illinois — David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers. No frontcourt shoots more threes.
3. Arizona — Motiejus Krivas may be the best center in the country. Add RJ Godfrey if he is cleared.
4. Gonzaga — Braden Huff averaged 17.8 points, and 7-1 Massamba Diop was one of the best young bigs in the Big 12 at Arizona State.
5. Duke — Patrick Ngongba II plus two of the best freshman bigs in the sport, Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Cameron Williams.
6. Texas — David Punch and Matas Vokietaitis will live at the free throw line.
7. Louisville — Flory Bidunga had 82 dunks last season and can guard all five positions.
8. Houston — Joseph Tugler and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie, who averaged 17.7 points.

Just missed: Texas Tech (JT Toppin alone, once healthy), Virginia, Indiana, Maryland (Pharrel Payne and Tomislav Buljan), LSU.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs

Head coach plus roster construction, which in 2026 is half the job.

1. UConn. Dan Hurley has played in three national title games in four years. He lost his top assistant, Luke Murray, to Boston College and rebuilt the roster with seven transfers anyway.

2. Houston. Kelvin Sampson has seven straight Sweet 16s and five straight 30-win seasons. He lost four NBA players and Torvik still has the Cougars fifth. That is a system.

3. Florida. Todd Golden won the 2025 title and then did the harder thing: he kept the team together. Six of the top seven scorers returning is a retention result no other contender matched.

4. Michigan State. Tom Izzo has the Big Ten’s best player, a top-10 recruiting class and five of his top eight scorers back. He needed a center and found one in the portal.

5. Duke. Jon Scheyer has won 70 games in two seasons, a program record, and signed the No. 2 class. The late-game losses are the only thing keeping him out of the top three.

6. Arizona. Tommy Lloyd reached the Final Four, turned down North Carolina, lost three of his top five scorers and is still everyone’s Big 12 pick.

7. Alabama. CBS calls Nate Oats the best offensive coach in the country. The numbers back it: top four in adjusted offense every year since 2023.

8. Kansas. Bill Self lost most of a roster to the draft and portal and still landed the No. 1 recruit. The last three seasons are why he is eighth and not second.

9. St. John’s. Rick Pitino had three players drafted in June and replaced four of his top five scorers with a group that could be top ten if the courts cooperate.

10. Iowa State. T.J. Otzelberger has made the tournament every year, and he keeps doing it with defense after losing his best scorer to a bigger budget.

Just missed: Tennessee (Rick Barnes), Arkansas (John Calipari), Gonzaga (Mark Few, in year 28), Iowa (Ben McCollum), Virginia (Ryan Odom), BYU (Kevin Young), Illinois (Brad Underwood) and Arizona State, where roughly 100 coaches surveyed by CBS named Randy Bennett the best high-major hire of the cycle.

The Individual Awards

Top 5 Player Of The Year Candidates

1. Thomas Haugh, F, Florida. The best player on the best team. He averaged 17.1 points, surprised the sport by passing on the draft, and plays next to two other frontcourt starters who draw attention. ESPN frames the preseason race as Haugh against Fears. We lean Haugh because Florida should win more.

2. Jeremy Fears Jr., G, Michigan State. The Big Ten’s preseason Player of the Year and the top senior on Andy Katz’s list. He led the country with 9.4 assists per game and runs everything for a top-six team. No Big Ten player has ever averaged 10 in a season. If Michigan State wins the Big Ten, he probably wins this.

3. Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt. He averaged 19.5 points, 5.1 assists and 2.4 steals and led Vanderbilt to a 16-0 start. The numbers will be there. The question is whether a team projected 10-8 in the SEC wins enough.

4. Tyran Stokes, F, Kansas. The No. 1 recruit, the projected No. 1 pick and CBS’s choice for Big 12 Player of the Year as a freshman. Kansas needs a star season from him to contend.

5. David Mirkovic, F, Illinois. A sophomore forward who can pass, dribble and shoot, at the center of the best projected offense in the country. ESPN expects an All-America season once he is back from offseason foot surgery.

Best case nobody is making: JT Toppin, who averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds before his injury and would be on every list if his knee had a date attached. Longshots: Rob Wright (BYU), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Flory Bidunga (Louisville), Thijs De Ridder (Virginia). Dick Vitale’s first team and CBS’s first team are the same five: Fears, Haugh, Tanner, Bidunga and Wright.

Top 8 Freshmen

1. Tyran Stokes, Kansas — No. 1 in the class. Kansas has had two No. 1 overall picks; he could be the third.
2. Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas — No. 2 in the class and Katz’s most impactful freshman. A two-way point guard replacing Darius Acuff Jr.
3. Caleb Holt, Arizona — No. 3 in the class, with an 81-inch wingspan, starting for a title contender.
4. Jason Crowe Jr., Missouri — ESPN’s pick to be the most productive freshman in the country.
5. Bruce Branch III, BYU — No. 6 in the class, a 6-7 shooter in an offense built for shooters.
6. Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, Duke — From FC Barcelona. Not eligible for the 2027 draft, so Duke has him for two seasons.
7. Nikola Kusturica, UCLA — Also from FC Barcelona, also two years away from the draft. He averaged 24.6 points at the FIBA U17 World Cup, and CBS picked him Big Ten Freshman of the Year.
8. Marcus Spears Jr., Texas — Was the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class before reclassifying. He is 6-10 with a 7-2 wingspan.

Next: Cameron Williams (Duke), Anthony Thompson (Ohio State), Christian Collins (USC), Baba Oladotun (Maryland), Dylan Mingo (Baylor), Miles Sadler (West Virginia).

Top 8 Transfers

More than 2,700 players entered the portal in the richest cycle the sport has seen.

1. Flory Bidunga, Louisville (from Kansas) — The top-ranked player in the portal. He averaged 13.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks on 64% shooting.
2. Milan Momcilovic, Kentucky (from Iowa State) — Led the country with 136 made threes.
3. John Blackwell, Duke (from Wisconsin) — Averaged 19.1 points and tops Katz’s transfer list.
4. Juke Harris, Tennessee (from Wake Forest) — Averaged 21.4 points, with seven games of 28 or more.
5. Tounde Yessoufou, St. John’s (from Baylor) — Averaged 17.8 points as a freshman and withdrew from the draft at the last minute.
6. PJ Haggerty, Texas A&M (from Kansas State) — Has scored in double figures in 94 of his last 96 games.
7. David Punch, Texas (from TCU) — A 6-7, 245-pound forward who can guard every position.
8. Massamba Diop, Gonzaga (from Arizona State) — A 7-1 center with a face-up game, now playing for Mark Few.

Next: Stefan Vaaks (Illinois), Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State), Acaden Lewis (Miami), Miles Byrd (Providence), Matt Able (North Carolina).

Quick Hits

• Most continuity among contenders: Florida, with 78.8% of last year’s minutes back per Torvik. Least: Cincinnati at 0.0% under first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, and Torvik still ranks the Bearcats 36th.
• First game: Notre Dame vs. Villanova in Rome on Nov. 1, with a 9:30 a.m. ET tip. Opening night proper is Nov. 2: Florida-Miami in Tampa, Arizona-UCLA and Gonzaga-Purdue in Las Vegas, and BYU-Ohio State in Salt Lake City.
• New coaches: More than 50 across Division I. Roughly 100 coaches polled by CBS named Randy Bennett at Arizona State the best high-major hire.
• Boomerangs: Darrion Williams is back at Texas Tech after a year at NC State. Dior Johnson is back at UCF after averaging 24.0 points at Tarleton State, second nationally to AJ Dybantsa.
• Oldest roster bet: Auburn, where every transfer is in at least his fourth college season.
• Hottest seats: Mark Pope (Kentucky), Jeff Capel (Pitt), Micah Shrewsberry (Notre Dame), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Ed Cooley (Georgetown).
• Droughts on the line: Texas has not made a Final Four in 24 years. Vanderbilt has not reached the second weekend since 2007. Louisville has not since 2015. Tennessee has never made a Final Four. Boston College has not made the tournament since 2009.
• Our Final Four: Florida, Duke, Illinois, Arizona. It is chalk, and in a year this unsettled we think chalk is the contrarian pick.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering The Season

1. Who is allowed to play? The five-for-five rule passed in June without covering last year’s seniors. Hundreds sued. Some have injunctions and some are still waiting, a few weeks before the first game. Coaches who built rosters assuming those players were finished are furious, and coaches who left spots open for them look smart. The first time a temporary injunction is reversed in January, a ranked team loses a starter mid-season. Expect it.

2. The field is 76. Eight more teams, almost all of them from the middle of the major conferences. ESPN’s first projection gives the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten 34 bids combined. The Atlantic 10 is the only other league with more than one. Expansion was sold as access. The early math says it is a subsidy for 9-9.

3. Michigan without Dusty May. No champion has lost its coach this way since 1988. Mike Boynton kept the roster, and Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney are a real backcourt. But the best frontcourt in the country is in the NBA and the top freshman tore his ACL. If Michigan finishes top three in the Big Ten, Boynton keeps the job. If not, this is a one-year bridge.

4. The SEC’s money. The league sent a record 14 teams to the 2025 tournament, slipped to 10 last year, and has spent its way forward again: 10 top-30 scorers retained, 11 more imported, and roster budgets from $8 million to more than $20 million. Twelve bids in the first bracket is the result.

5. Four coaches and one question each. Does Jon Scheyer close? Does Pat Kelsey’s spending produce a second weekend? Does Mark Pope survive year three? Is this Bill Self’s last team? All four have rosters good enough to answer yes. Not all four will.

Two Rankings

Everything above is downstream of one fact, so we’ll end where we started.

ESPN ranked every team twice because it had to. A preseason poll is supposed to be a guess about how good teams are. This year it is first a guess about who is on them. Texas Tech’s range is ninth to unranked. Gonzaga’s is eight spots. Arizona’s title case is one forward’s paperwork.

It is why our Final Four percentages add up to less than three of the four spots. It is why the models and the polls disagree by ten places or more on Houston and Texas. It is why the defending champion is 10th in Torvik, 22nd at ESPN and 28th at KenPom.

And it is why the teams at the very top look the way they do. Florida is No. 1 because it is the one contender that mostly knows who it is. Six of the top seven scorers back. One open question, and a capable answer either way. Duke, Illinois and Michigan State are right behind for the same reason. In a sport where a roster is a one-year lease, the teams that renewed are the favorites.

The bracket got bigger this year. The list of teams that can actually win it got smaller.

The post 2026-27 College Basketball Preview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Here we give our initial predictions – with it being assured that we will second guess ourselves many times before the First Round gets underway Thursday afternoon.

East Region: 

1 Duke
16 Siena

8 Ohio State
9 TCU

5 St. John’s
12 Northern Iowa

4 Kansas
13 Cal Baptist

6 Louisville
11 South Florida

3 Michigan State
14 North Dakota State

7 UCLA
10 UCF

2 UConn
15 Furman

East First Round Winners: Duke, Ohio State, St. John’s, Kansas, South Florida, Michigan State, UCLA, UConn
East Second Round Winners:  Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, UConn
East Sweet 16 Winners: St. John’s, Michigan State
East Region Winner:  St. John’s

Something To Watch In The East: South Florida was 15-3 in an underrated American Conference. Louisville’s Mikel Brown will need to come up big there to avoid the perceived upset. Some great Coaches in this Region – Pitino, Izzo, Hurley.  Does Kansas’ Darryn Peterson just go off? It’s fun being the age where I fully remember Cameron Boozer’s father’s career.  Fantastic year for Boozer.

Midwest Region: 

1 Michigan
16 UMBC / Howard

8 Georgia
9 Saint Louis

5 Texas Tech
12 Akron

4 Alabama
13 Hofstra

6 Tennessee
11 Miami (OH) / SMU

3 Virginia
14 Wright State

7 Kentucky
10 Santa Clara

2 Iowa State
15 Tennessee State

Midwest First Round Winners: Michigan, Georgia, Akron, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, Kentucky, Iowa State
Midwest Second Round Winners: Michigan, Alabama, Virginia, Iowa State
Midwest Sweet 16 Winners: Michigan, Virginia
Midwest Region Winner: Michigan

Something To Watch In The Midwest: UMBC can get an opportunity at another #1 seed if they can beat Howard in the play-in. Texas Tech will have Christian Anderson available, but JT Toppin is out for the year after his ACL injury last month. I’m not going to call it, but Santa Clara beating Kentucky wouldn’t be a surprise. Iowa State was 6th overall via KenPom, I might be undervaluing them as I have them losing to UVA in the S16. Michigan lost their backup PG LJ Cason to injury in late February, and that has impacted their rotation. Alabama and Michigan could be a shoot-out. Alabama’s offense is good enough to win. Taking Michigan, as the Wolverines are Top 10 via KenPom in both offense and defense.  I was happy for Miami (OH) that they saw their name called, and disappointed for them that they’re in the play-in.

South Region: 

1 Florida
16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh

8 Clemson
9 Iowa

5 Vanderbilt
12 McNeese

4 Nebraska
13 Troy

6 North Carolina
11 VCU

3 Illinois
14 Penn

7 Saint Mary’s
10 Texas A&M

2 Houston
15 Idaho

South First Round Winners:  Florida, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, VCU, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Houston
South Second Round Winners: Florida, Vanderbilt, VCU, Houston
South Sweet 16 Winners: Florida, Houston
South Region Winner: Houston

Something To Watch In The South: I think Florida has an easy path to the S16. I’ll take the Gators over Vanderbilt if they meet again, but the Commodores did just beat Florida by 17 in the SEC Tournament. VCU has won 16 of 17, I like that consistency, and UNC isn’t the same since losing Caleb Wilson. Florida vs. Houston would be a great game.

West Region: 

1 Arizona
16 LIU

8 Villanova
9 Utah State

5 Wisconsin
12 High Point

4 Arkansas
13 Hawaii

6 BYU
11 Texas / NCST

3 Gonzaga
14 Kennesaw State

7 Miami (FL)
10 Missouri

2 Purdue
15 Queens

West First Round Winners: Arizona, Utah State, High Point, Arkansas, BYU, Gonzaga, Miami, Purdue
West Second Round Winners: Arizona, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Purdue
West Sweet 16 Winners: Arizona, Gonzaga
West Region Winner: Arizona

Something To Watch In The West: Not taking Utah State over Villanova because of Willard.  The Aggies were 15-5 in a quality Mountain West. High Point was 15-1 in the Big South, and 6th overall in the most recent Mid-Major poll. They score, and Wisconsin was just 52nd overall via KenPom in defense.  I’m not going to take Arkansas over Arizona, but that’s a dangerous game for the Wildcats. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa is the currently projected #1 pick in the NBA Draft. They’ll be favored in Round 1, but I don’t envy them having to face a major-conference team that will have gotten their feet wet in the play-in game. I don’t think this is a great Gonzaga team, but I have confidence in Mark Few being able to find two wins here. Purdue vs. Gonzaga is a coin-flip for me, but I’ll take the Zags. Don’t see either one of them beating Arizona.

Final Four: St. John’s, Houston, Michigan, Arizona

Championship: Houston vs. Arizona

Champion: Arizona

Calling for an All-Big 12 National Championship feels like a reach, but these are two excellent teams. The Wildcats are 2-0 vs. Houston, including the Big 12 Championship. Hard to beat a quality team 3x, but I think that’s what happens, if these teams face off once more.

The post 2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Here we will go through the 2025-26 season to-date, and discuss what awaits before 68 teams start dancing.

Who Are The Contenders?

The AP and the Coaches Poll both have the same 16 teams – Arizona, UConn, Michigan, Purdue, Duke, Houston, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Michigan State, Illinois, Texas Tech, BYU, Virginia, Vanderbilt, and Florida – albeit, in slightly different orders.

CBS Sports Top 25+1, has Kansas 16th overall.

The KenPom ratings include Louisville in their Top 16.

Per FanDuel, Arizona and Michigan are the prohibitive favorites both at +470. Duke is third at +900, with Houston and UConn next up at +1300.

If you go back to the KenPom ratings, those odds make sense with Arizona having the 4th rated offense, and 3rd rated defense.  Michigan having 8th rated offense, and 2nd rated defense.  Duke having the 5th rated offense, and 5th rated defense.  Houston with the 15th rated offense, and 7th rated defense.  UConn a bit of an outlier here, as they do have the 4th rated defense, but just the 38th rated offense.

How Do The Conferences Stack Up?

The NCAA Selection Committee replaced RPI Ratings with NET Ratings, but I still think think the Conference RPI ratings provide a decent snapshot of where things stand.

Currently the Big 12 is the top rated conference by RPI, followed by the Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Big East to round out the Top 5.

The 6th through 10th spots are held by the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, WCC, MVC, and the WAC.

Of the 18 teams listed above as contenders, the Big 12 has 6 teams, the Big Ten has 5, the ACC has 3, the SEC has 2, the Big East has 1, and the WCC has 1.

Who Are The Best Mid-Majors?

The Mid-Major Top 25 is here. 

The Top 10 amongst the Mid-Majors are Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), Liberty, Murray State, St. Mary’s, Yale, Belmont, High Point, Santa Clara, UNC Wilmington.

The Conference Races

American East – UMBC and Vermont are both 5-1 in conference, and will face each other twice.

American Athletic – Florida Atlantic is 6-1 in league play with Tulsa, Temple, and Charlotte each 5-2.

ACC – Duke is 7-0, Clemson is 7-1, and Virginia is 5-2.

Atlantic Sun – Austin Peay, Lipscomb, and Queens are each 7-1.

Atlantic 10 – Saint Louis is 7-0, George Mason is 6-1.

Big East – UConn is 9-0, St. John’s is 8-1, and Kevin Willard’s Villanova is 6-3.

Big Sky – Portland is 7-0, Montana State is 7-1.

Big Ten – Nebraska is 9-0, Michigan, Michigan State, and Illinois are each 8-1.

Big 12 – Arizona is 7-0, Texas Tech is 6-1, Houston and BYU are 5-1.

Big South – Winthrop is 7-1, and High Point is 6-1.

Big West – Hawaii and UC Irvine are both 7-2.

Coastal Athletic – UNC Wilmington is 7-1, Charleston is 6-2.

Conference USA – Liberty is 9-0.

Horizon League – Wright State is 8-2, Oakland 8-3.

Ivy League – Yale is 4-1.

MAAC – Merrimack is 9-2, St. Peter’s is 8-2.

MEAC – Maryland Eastern Shore is 4-0. NC Central 3-1.

Mid-American – Miami (Ohio) is 8-0 in conference, and 20-0 overall. Akron is 7-1.

Missouri Valley – Belmont and Murray State are both 8-2.

Mountain West – San Diego State is 8-1, Utah State and New Mexico are 7-2.

Ohio Valley – UT Martin is 7-2, Tennessee State and Morehead State are 7-3.

Northeast – LIU is 6-1, Le Moyne is 5-2.

Patriot League – Navy is 7-1, American and Colgate are 6-2.

SEC – Texas A&M is 6-1, Arkansas, Florida, and Kentucky are 5-2.

Southern – ETSU is 7-1, Wolford is 6-2.

Southland – SF Austin is 10-1, McNeese is 9-2.

SWAC – Florida A&M, and Bethune-Cookman are both 5-1.

Summit – North Dakota State is 8-0, St. Thomas is 6-1.

Sun Belt – Troy is 8-1, Georgia State is 6-3.

WAC – UT Arlington is 5-2, Utah Valley and Cal Baptist are 5-3.

West Coast – Gonzaga is 9-0, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara are 8-1.

Player of the Year

Cameron Boozer (Duke) is the betting favorite at -400.

Next up is BYU’s AJ Dybantsa at +500.

Purdue’s Branden Smith is third at +1,500.

Texas Tech’s JT Toppin is fourth at +1,800.

At fifth overall is Houston’s Kingston Flemings at +3,500.

The Current Bubble?

ESPN’s Bracketology has UCLA, New Mexico, USC, and Virginia Tech as the last four in, and Stanford, Santa Clara, Texas, and Indiana as the first four out.

CBS Sports’ Bracketology has the last four in as Missouri, USC, Seton Hall, and Virginia Tech and Texas, Oklahoma State, Butler, and TCC as the first four out.

The post 2025-26 College Basketball Reset appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

As we do, we can evaluate what we’ve seen so far in this College Basketball season, and give some thoughts on what’s to come as we build towards Selection Sunday.

The Best Conference In College Basketball?

Seems clear the answer is the SEC.

In ESPN’s current Power Rankings, they have 4 SEC teams in the Top 6, and 5 of the Top 7.  Then an additional 3 teams in the rest of their Top 25.
CBS Sports’ Power Rankings tell a similar story, where the SEC has 8 of the Top 14 teams, and two others in the Top 25.

The current KenPom Ratings, have 4 of the Top 9, 6 of the Top 20, and 8 of the Top 30.
ESPN’s Bracketology has 13 SEC teams making the NCAA Tournament!

Who Has The 2nd Best Conference?

ESPN’s Bracketology currently has 10 teams from the Big Ten making the NCAAT, but of those teams Oregon ( currently a 3 seed ), UCLA ( currently a 4 seed ), and Purdue ( currently a 4 seed ), are currently the top Big Ten seeds.

ESPN’s Power Rankings have 4 Big Ten teams in their Top 25, with Oregon the highest at 8.
CBS’s Power Rankings have 6 Big Ten teams in their Top 25.

The KenPom ratings have 8 Big Ten teams in their Top 30, with Maryland the highest rated at 11.

ESPN’s Bracketology has 8 teams from the Big 12 making the NCAAT, with Iowa State currently on the 1 line.

ESPN’s Power Rankings have 4 Big 12 teams in their Top 25, with the Cyclones the highest at 3.
CBS’s Power Rankings also have 4 Big 12 teams in their Top 25, with Kansas joining Iowa State in their Top 10.

The KenPom ratings have 6 Big 12 teams in their Top 30, with Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas all in their Top 8.

Who Is The Best Team In The Big East?  

Marquette is 11-2 overall, 2-0 in the Big East.
UConn is 10-3 overall, 2-0 in the Big East.

The Golden Eagles are 10th overall in KenPom, with the 16th rated offense, and 19th rated defense.
The Huskies are 15th overall in KenPom, with the 2nd rated offense, and 98th rated defense.

ESPN’s Bracketology has Marquette as a 2 seed, and UConn as a 4.

ESPN’s Power Rankings have Marquette 9th overall, and UConn 12th.
CBS’s Power Rankings have Marquette 8th overall, and UConn 19th.

Who Is The Best Out Of Dayton, Gonzaga, Memphis, and San Diego State?

ESPN’s Bracketology has Gonzaga (West Coast Conference) as a 2 seed, Memphis (American Conference) a 5, Dayton (Atlantic 10) a 7 seed, and San Diego State (Mountain West) a 9 seed.

ESPN’s Power Rankings have Dayton 15th, Gonzaga 16th, San Diego State 18th, and Memphis 20th.
CBS’s Power Rankings have Gonzaga 20th, San Diego State 21st, and Dayton and Memphis not-ranked.

KenPom has Gonzaga 6th overall, with the 3rd ranked offense, and 24th ranked defense.
Dayton is 32nd overall, with the 18th ranked offense, and 69th ranked defense.
San Diego State is 36th overall, with the 71st ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense.
Memphis is 42nd overall, with the 39th ranked offense, and 54th ranked defense.

Who Is The 2nd Best Team In The ACC?

Duke is 10-2 overall, 2-0 in league play, and 2nd overall in KenPom. They are 5th in the ESPN Power Rankings, and 4th via CBS’ Power Rankings.

ESPN’s Bracketology only has 4 ACC teams making the NCAAT (Duke as a 2 seed, Clemson a 6,  Pittsburgh a 7, and North Carolina a 9).

ESPN’s Power Rankings has Duke as the only ACC team, with Clemson dropping out.
CBS’s Power Rankings have UNC at #26.

In KenPom, Pittsburgh is 25th, UNC is 28th, and Clemson is 31st

Some Random Teams I Like

• UC San Diego:  11-2 overall, and have won their last 9. The Big West team has 4 guys averaging double figures, with 2 guards shooting 40%+ from 3.
• Liberty: 12-1 overall, and have won their last 9. The Conference USA team has 6 guys averaging at-least 9.2 points per game, and 8 guys averaging at-least 7.1
• Bradley: 10-2 overall. The Missouri Valley team has 5 guys scoring 9.3+ points per game, and each of them are shooting 42%+ from 3.
• Arkansas State: 10-3 overall. This Sun Belt team had a competitive 9 point game at Alabama.

The post College Basketball 2024-25: As January Nears appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Where do things stand in College Basketball one month into the season?

Conference Quick Hits

ACC – The ACC has 3 ranked teams in the current AP Top 25 (Duke 9th, Pittsburgh 18th, and UNC 20th). Clemson and Florida State are both 7-1. California is 6-1. Big week coming up for the Conference as Duke has Auburn, and UNC has Alabama in the ACC / SEC Challenge. In the KenPom rankings, Duke is 4th, Pittsburgh 13th, UNC 16th, Clemson 25th, and Louisville 39th.  In the CBS Sports 25+1 Power Rankings, Duke is 8th, UNC 16th, and Pittsburgh is 18th.

Big 12 – The Big 12 has 5 teams in the AP Top 25, each all Top 17 (Kansas 1st, Iowa State 6th, Cincinnati 14th, Baylor 15th, Houston 17th). Arizona State is 7-1.  BYU, Texas Tech, and Utah are each 6-1. In KenPom, Houston is 5th, Iowa State 6th, Kansas 7th, Cincinnati 9th, Texas Tech 20th, Baylor 23rd, Arizona 30th, BYU 34th. In the CBS Sports Power Rankings, Kansas is 1st, Iowa State 3rd, Baylor 13th, Texas 20th, Houston 26th.

Big East – Marquette is up #5 Nationally, while 2x Defending National Champion UConn has fallen to #25 in the AP Top 25. DePaul is 7-0, Xavier is 7-1, Butler is 6-1, Georgetown is 6-1. Marquette is 11th in KenPom, St. John’s is 21st, and UConn is 24th. Creighton is the next highest at 51. In the CBS Sports Power Rankings, Marquette is 4th.

Big Ten – There are 4 ranked teams in the AP Top 25 (Purdue 8th, Wisconsin 11th, Oregon 12th, Illinois 19th). Maryland and Penn State are both 7-1. Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, UCLA, and Washington are each 6-1.  In the KenPom Rankings, Purdue is 14th, Illinois is 15th, UCLA 17th, Ohio State 18th, Oregon 19th, Michigan 22nd, Wisconsin 29th, Maryland 32nd, Michigan State 37th, and Penn State 38th. In the CBS Sports Power Rankings, Purdue is 7th, Wisconsin 9th, Michigan State 15th, Illinois 17th, Ohio State 19th.

SEC – The SEC reigns with 8 teams in the AP Top 25 (Auburn 2nd, Tennessee 3rd, Kentucky 4th, Alabama 10th, Florida 13th, Oklahoma 21st, Texas A&M 22nd, Ole Miss 23rd). Georgia and Vanderbilt are 7-1. LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, and Texas are each 6-1.  In the KenPom Rankings, Auburn is 1st, Tennessee 2nd, Florida 8th, Alabama 10th, Kentucky 12th, Texas A&M 27th, Mississippi State 28th, Texas 35th. In the CBS Sports Power Rankings, Auburn is 2nd, Tennessee 5th, Kentucky 6th, Texas 20th, Florida 21st, and Ole Miss is 23rd.

Others Of Note

Gonzaga – The Zags are 7th Nationally.  Their 3rd overall in KenPom (2nd in Offensive Rating, 15th in Defensive Rating). In the CBS Sports Power Rankings Gonzaga is 10th.  Gonzaga is 1st in the College Insider Mid-Major Top 25.

Memphis – The Tigers are 16th Nationally.  31st overall in KenPom (21st in Offensive Rating, 59th in Defensive Rating). In the CBS Sports Power Rankings Memphis is 14th.

Dayton – The Flyers are 6-2 overall, and 26th overall in KenPom (17th in Offensive Rating, 51st in Defensive Rating). In the CBS Sports Power Rankings Dayton is 24th.

Saint Mary’s – The Gaels are 7-1, and 33rd overall in KenPom (35th in Offensive Rating, 35th in Defensive Rating). Saint Mary’s is 2nd in the College Insider Mid-Major Top 25.

Nevada – The Wolf Pack is 36th overall in KenPom (30th in Offensive Rating, 57th in Defensive Rating).

San Diego State – The Aztecs are 40th overall in KenPom (72nd in Offensive Rating, 12th in Defensive Rating).  In the CBS Sports Power Rankings San Diego State is 25th.

Bracketology

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s bracket as of Nov. 26th. 

Scheduled Games Of Note This Week

All Percentages Are From ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Cincinnati at Villanova –  Big 12 / Big East battle. The Bearcats a 61.1% favorite to beat the Wildcats in Philadelphia.

Syracuse at Tennessee – ACC / SEC challenge. The Volunteers a 94.3% favorite at home.

Michigan at Wisconsin – 8-0 Wisconsin hosts 6-1 Michigan. The Wolverines are given a 35% chance to upset the Badgers.

Wake Forest at Texas A&M – ACC / SEC challenge. The Aggies (6-2 overall, 4-0 at home) welcome Hunter Sallis and the Demon Deacons. Wake is 7-2 overall, and given a 13.9% chance of winning.

Ole Miss at Louisville – ACC / SEC Challenge. The 6-1 Rebels visit the 5-2 Cardinals. Louisville a 57.3% favorite to win at home.

Kentucky at Clemson – ACC / SEC Challenge.  The Tigers are a 50.6% favorite against the highly ranked Wildcats.

Baylor at UConn – Big 12 / Big East battle. UConn is coming off a win vs. Maryland Eastern-Shore after losing 3 straight to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton. The Huskies are a 63.3% favorite vs. Baylor.

Ohio State at Maryland – The Big Ten season begins for the Terps, with MD a 58.3% favorite vs. the Buckeyes.

Alabama at UNC – ACC / SEC Challenge. The Tar Heels are 57.7% favorites at home.

Marquette at Iowa State – Big 12 / Big East battle. Iowa State a 67.4% favorite to beat Kam Jones and undefeated Marquette.

Auburn at Duke – ACC / SEC Challenge. Duke a 66.4% favorite to beat undefeated Auburn.

Wisconsin at Marquette – In-state rivalry game. Will be the second challenge for each team this week. The Golden Eagles a 72.8% favorite.

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga – The Wildcats vs. the Zags in Seattle. Gonzaga a 58.5% favorite.

Maryland at Purdue – Road test for MD against the Big Ten favorite. The Boilermakers a 70.2% favorite at home.

The post College Basketball 2024-25: Where Things Stand To Begin December appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Week 3 Quick Hits

ACC –  North Carolina (10th), and Duke (12th) are the only ranked teams. Pittsburgh (6-0), Stanford (6-0), and NCST (5-0) are all undefeated. Duke had a 14 point win at Arizona yesterday, with Cooper Flagg scoring 24. Pittsburgh is 14th overall in the KenPom rankings, with the 21st rated offense, and 13th rated defense.

Big 12 – There are six teams in the Big 12 which are ranked (Kansas 1st, Iowa State 5th, Houston 7th, Baylor 13th, Arizona 17th, and Cincinnati 18th). Kansas, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Colorado, and BYU are undefeated. Cincinnati destroyed Georgia Tech 81-58 yesterday. In the KenPom rankings, the Big 12 has 4 of the top 9 overall.

Big East – Four teams in the Big East (UConn 2nd, Creighton 14th, Marquette 15th, St. John’s 22nd) are ranked. DePaul, Marquette, Providence, Xavier, and UConn are undefeated. The Huskies, Red Storm, and Golden Eagles are all in the Top 13 of the KenPom rankings.  Marquette followed up their win over Maryland with a 76-58 win over Purdue.

Big Ten – Five teams in the Big Ten (Purdue 6th, Indiana 16th, Wisconsin 19th, Rutgers 24th, and Illinois 25th) are ranked. Purdue is the top ranked Big Ten team in KenPom at 16th overall.  The league does have 10 teams in the Top 36 of the KenPom rankings. Wisconsin, Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, and Rutgers are undefeated.

SEC – There are seven teams in the SEC which are ranked (Auburn 4th, Alabama 8th, Kentucky 9th, Tennessee 11th, Arkansas 20th, Florida 21st, Texas A&M 23rd). There are eight SEC teams which are undefeated (Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Oklahoma). The SEC has 3 teams in the KenPom Top 10, and 6 teams in the Top 19.

Other

Gonzaga – Was 3rd overall in the latest AP Poll.  Their 3rd overall in KenPom, with the top ranked offense, and 18th ranked defense.

VCU – Received 17 votes in the latest AP Poll, effectively ranking them 31st. They’ll drop after losing their last two games Seton Hall, and Nevada.

Memphis – Outside of Gonzaga, the Tigers are second highest ranked KenPom team which isn’t in the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, or the SEC.  They are 30th overall, with the 45th ranked offense, and 24th ranked defense.

Boise State – The Broncos are 3-1 overall, and ranked 35th overall in the KenPom rankings.

Dayton – The Flyers are 5-0, and ranked 38th overall in the KenPom rankings.

Nevada – The Wolf Pack are 5-1, and ranked 39th overall in KenPom rankings. Number of decent wins on the resume already. The lone loss a 2 point game to Vanderbilt.

Scheduled Games Of Note This Week

All Percentages Are From ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Pittsburgh vs. Wisconsin – The Panthers are a 55.7% favorite.

Memphis vs. UConn – Maui Invitational. UConn a 73.8% favorite.

Auburn vs. Iowa State – #4 vs. #5 in the Maui Invitational.  Auburn a 62.6% favorite.

Dayton vs. North Carolina – Maui Invitational. UNC a 86.3% favorite.

Oregon vs. Texas A&M – Players Era Festival – Power Tournament.  The Aggies are a 60.7% favorite.

Houston vs. Alabama – Players Era Festival  – Impact Tournament. #7 vs. #8.  Houston a 72% favorite.

Kansas vs. Duke – Vegas Showdown. #1 vs. #12.  Duke a 69.8% favorite.

Texas A&M vs. Creighton – Players Era Festival – Power Tournament. The Blue Jays are a 51.4% favorite.

Rutgers vs. Alabama – Players Era Festival – Impact Tournament. Alabama a 81.8% favorite.

Arkansas vs. Illinois – Thanksgiving Hoop Showcase. #20 vs. #25.  Illinois a 69.1% favorite.

Articles To Read 

ESPN – Power Rankings

CBS Sports – Power Rankings

CBS Sports – 6 Breakout Surprises

The post College Basketball 2024-25: Week 4 Overview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Week 2 Quick Hits

ACC –  Duke dropped their first real challenge of the year, 77-72 to Kentucky. Cooper Flagg had 26 points, and 11 boards, but the Blue Devils were just 4 of 24 from 3.  Wake Forest is 4-1, after losing 75-60 to Xavier. Pittsburgh improved to 4-0 with a 24 point blow out of West Virginia.  Florida State had a 13 point loss to in-state rival Florida. Duke is still 4th overall in the KenPom ratings, North Carolina is 14th, and Pittsburgh is 19th.

Big 12 – The Big 12 has 6 teams in the AP Top 25. Kansas followed up their win over UNC, with an 8 point win against Michigan State. Arizona let up 103 points at Wisconsin. Arizona State had a competitive 8 point loss to Gonzaga. The game was tied at the half. Gonzaga got to the line more often, and converted once there. The Zags also won on the boards. In the KenPom ratings, there are 7 Big 12 teams in the Top 16 overall.

Big East – Marquette won at Maryland, and the Golden Eagles are 4-0. Kam Jones is an elite college guard. Xavier had the aforementioned big win vs. the Demon Deacons. In the KenPom rankings, UConn is 5th overall, with the 7th rated offense, and 7th rated defense.

Big Ten – Purdue had the big win of the week, taking down Alabama 87-78. Only 3 turnovers for the Boilermakers. Indiana is 3-0, and they’re coming of a 16 point blowout of South Carolina. The Hoosiers were 27 of 33 at the line. We mentioned Wisconsin’s win over Arizona State.  Rutgers and Illinois are both undefeated and now ranked. Purdue is the only team in the Big Ten that’s in the KenPom Top 20.

SEC – The SEC has four teams (Auburn 4th, Alabama 8th, Kentucky 9th, and Tennessee 11th) who are ranked in the AP Top 11. In the KenPom rankings, Tennessee is 6th, Alabama is 10th, and Texas A&M 15th are the top ranked SEC teams.

Local Schools

Coppin State –  Three more beatings for the Eagles who are now 0-6. They were relatively competitive in their 17 point loss at Virginia, but destroyed the next two times out at UMBC, and at Miami.

Loyola – The Greyhounds fell to 2-2 with a 26 point beating VCU. Loyola made just 33% of their FG attempts.

Morgan State – The Bears are 3-2, as they won both of their games (U of DC, and NJIT) this past week. The schedule gets harder now, with three games (NC A&T, Buffalo, and Towson) where the Bears will be underdogs between now and Sunday.

Mount St. Mary’s – The Mountaineers had a good week, winning both of their games (@Bucknell, and St. Francis) to improve to 3-1. The win vs. Bucknell was in Double OT, and the Mountaineers had 5 players in double figures.

Navy – The Midshipmen fell to 1-3 with losses to Rider, and Campbell.

Towson – The Tigers began their week with a disappointing 26 point loss at South Carolina. In that game, TU was just 16 of 54 from the floor.  Towson did rebound from that loss though, and beat James Madison. Dylan Williamson had 22, and four other Tigers each had 9.  Towson is now 2-2.

UMBC – The Retrievers are 3-2.  They beat up Coppin, and then dropped an 8 point game to Saint Peter’s.

Games Of Note This Week 

All Percentages Are From ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Gonzaga at San Diego State – The Mountain West hosts the West Coast Conference.  The Aztecs are 2-0. Gonzaga is a 10.5 point favorite, and given a 70.6% chance of winning.

Hampton at UMBC – The Pirates are just 1-3, but they’re typically a solid program. Been in the CAA for a couple of years now. The Retrievers are 64.6% favorites here.

Purdue at Marquette – Interesting game here.  Purdue coming off the big win vs. Alabama.  Marquette winning at Maryland. Marquette is a 58.6% favorite to win.

Illinois at Alabama – The Fighting Illini are ranked 25th in the AP, and the Crimson Tide are 8th.  Alabama is a 60.5% favorite to get the home win.

Baylor at St. John’s – #13 at #22.  Rick Pitino has The Red Storm ranked in his 2nd year with the program. Baylor is a 67.3% favorite here to get the road win.

Syracuse at Texas – ACC at SEC. Texas is a big favorite at home.

Virginia at Tennessee – ACC at SEC.  Tennessee is a big favorite at home.

Oregon at Oregon State – Former conference foes, still in-state foes go at it.  Oregon State is 4-0, and in the WCC this year. Oregon is 4-0, and in their first year in the Big Ten. Oregon is a significant favorite here.

Duke at Arizona – #12 at #17.  The Blue Devils are 3-1.  The Wildcats are 2-1.  Duke is a 54.3% favorite here.

Articles To Read:

CBS Sports: Top 25+1 

ESPN: Judging 5 Early Over-Reactions

ESPN: Power Rankings

The post College Basketball 2024-25: Week 3 Overview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Let’s review this past week, and preview the week ahead.

Week 1 Quick Hits

ACC – Four ACC teams (North Carolina, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville) suffered losses in Week 1.  The rest of the conference is undefeated. UNC lost a 3 point game at Kansas. The Tar Heels were down 15 at halftime, but made it a game, and actually took the lead with 6 minutes left. Overall, I’d be encouraged if I was a UNC fan.  The Tar Heels were said to lack inside strength, but they won on the boards 40-39, and had 31 FT attempts.  Wake Forest improved to 3-0, with a 72-70 win this afternoon against Michigan. Duke Freshman Cooper Flagg missed most of the 2nd half of his 2nd game (against Army) with cramping issues.

Big 12 – While UNC rallied from being down 20 against the Jayhawks, KU still won. Kansas had 5 players in double figures against UNC. They put up 92 points, despite going just 6 of 21 from 3.  Baylor entered the year ranked #8 Nationally, and lost their season opener by 38 to Gonzaga. As ugly as that game was, they did beat #16 Arkansas 72-67 their next time out. Five Baylor players in double figures against the Razorbacks. Really poor shooting in both game for Baylor though.  #4 Houston lost to #11 Auburn Saturday night, 74-69. In that game, the Cougars were outscored by 10 in the 2nd half. The box score was largely even, with the only thing sticking out is that Auburn made 53% of their FG attempts, while Houston made just 41.4%.  Arizona State is playing Gonzaga as we write this, with the Sun Devils down just 4 in the 2nd half.

Big East – Villanova, Butler, and Seton Hall lost games. Villanova’s lost being a 10 point loss at home to Columbia. Everyone else is undefeated.  UConn scored 92 in both of their first games against Sacred Heart and New Hampshire.

Big Ten – Michigan (as mentioned above to Wake Forest), Northwestern, UCLA, and Washington have losses. The rest of the conference is undefeated. UCLA lost 72-64 to New Mexico. In that game the Bruins were 5 of 23 from 3, and had 24 turnovers. Wisconsin is 3-0, and averaging 84 points per game. Nice win for Ohio State over Texas, 80-72. Buckeyes were up from beginning to end.

SEC – Arkansas (as mentioned to Baylor), Missouri, South Carolina, Texas (as mentioned to Ohio State), and Texas A&M each have a loss. A&M lost 64-61 at UCF. The story there was UCF got to the line 31 times vs. just 14 for A&M. Alabama put up 198 points (99 per) in their first two games.

Local Schools

Coppin State – Eagles start 0-3.  Had a competitive 15 point loss vs. Wake Forest, but followed that up with a 42 point loss at High Point. Then a 11 point loss to Rider.

Loyola – The Greyhounds are 1-1. They had a 3 point loss to Columbia (who again beat Villanova by 10), and a blowout win vs. Division 3 Lancaster Bible.

Morgan State – The Bears are 1-2. They beat D3 Frostburg State, lost by 5 at home to Mercyhurst, and by 18 at Longwood.

Mount St. Mary’s – The Mountaineers are 1-1, beating Notre Dame of Maryland (D3), and losing at Maryland by 34. The game at College Park got away from them, but it was a competitive effort for about 12 minutes.

Navy – A decent opening week for the Midshipmen. They had a 7 point loss at Saint Joseph’s, and they beat Harvard 85-80.

Towson – The Tigers split their first two games. They had a 7 point loss at Saint Mary’s.  In CollegeInsider’s Pre-Season Mid-Major Top 25, Saint Mary’s was 5th, and Towson was 16th. Towson lost on the boards 41-30. In their second game, Towson blew out Penn State Wilkes Barre.

UMBC – The Retrievers are 1-1, beating Penn State York by 39, and losing to Penn State by 49. UMBC gave up 60 points in the 2nd half to the Nittany Lions, and lost on the boards 50-35. UMBC was just 19 of 65 (29.2%) from the floor.

Games Of Note This Week 

All Percentages Are From ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Michigan State vs Kansas – The 2-0 Fighting Tom Izzo’s face the Jayhawks. The Spartans are given a 36.6% chance of pulling the upset vs. #1 Kansas. Game at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta.

Duke vs. Kentucky – The Wildcats are currently ranked #23 Nationally. They’re given a 29.3% chance of winning vs. #7 Duke.

Towson at South Carolina – The Tigers on the road against an SEC school.  Towson is given a 20.2% chance of winning.

Coppin State at UMBC – The Retrievers are a 85.7% favorite here in a match-up of local schools.

Florida at Florida State – The Gators are currently ranked #21.  The Seminoles have started 2-0, and are given a 37.8% chance of winning at home here vs. their in-state rival.

Alabama at Purdue – #2 Alabama travels to West Lafayette for a game against Big Ten favorite and #14 overall Purdue. ESPN’s predictor currently has Purdue as a 52.5% favorite of getting the home win.

Marquette at Maryland – #18 Marquette comes to College Park. We will have more on this game later this week.

Arizona at Wisconsin – The Wildcats are #10 Nationally. As mentioned above, Wisconsin has started 3-0.  The Badgers are given a 33% chance of upsetting Arizona.

Ohio at Memphis – An under-the-radar game between favorites in the Mid-American, and American Conferences.  Memphis a big favorite here at home.

Wake Forest at Xavier – ACC at Big East.

Articles To Read:

CBS Sports: Top 25+1

CBS Sports: November Madness: Top In-Season Tournaments

The post College Basketball 2024-25: Week 2 Overview appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Conference Overviews

ACC – Just two ACC teams in the opening AP Top 25, with Duke at #7, and UNC at #9.  In Durham, it’s Year 3 of the Jon Scheyer era.  Freshman Cooper Flagg is arriving with super-human expectations. In Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels look like they have lots of strong guards and wings; and limited answers inside.  Wake Forest’s Hunter Sallis is billed as a 1st team All-America candidate by CBS Sports Matt Norlander. Clemson is projected 4th in the Conference, and has two players on the All-ACC Preseason 2nd team. You can find the ACC Preseason Poll and Teams here. 

Big East – There are three Big East teams – UConn #3, Creighton #15, and Marquette #18 in the opening AP Top 25.  I’m sure the Huskies have plenty of talent, but there is just one starter back. Is the preseason ranking based more on their back-to-back titles, or more about real projection for this roster? Creighton looks like they’ll have balanced scoring, while Marquette has a lot of program continuity. Norlander has St. John’s as his #11 best team in the country.  In the Big East Preseason Poll, Xavier placed 3rd ahead of Marquette, and St. John’s with 5th.

Big 12 – With 5 teams (#1 Kansas, #4 Houston, #5 Iowa State, #8 Baylor, #10 Arizona) in the AP Top 10 residing in the Big 12, the Big 12 has an argument for being the premier conference in the land. Cincinnati is #20 Nationally, but projected to finish 6th in their league. In a down year for the Jayhawks, Kansas was still a Top 20 team last year.  This year Bill Self has reloaded, and has a deep, talented roster which everyone has in their Top 5. Kelvin Sampson has built a juggernaut at Houston. The Cougars went 32-5, 15-3 last year in their first season in the Big 12.  This is now Year 1 for Arizona in their new league. Baylor was 4th overall in the Big 12 Preseason Poll, with two players on the Big 12 Preseason 2nd team.

Big Ten – Only four teams (Purdue #14, Indiana #17, UCLA #22, and Rutgers #25) in the AP Top 25. The Boilermakers have been a top 5 seed or better in 8 straight NCAA Tournaments. They’ve got an experienced backcourt in Braden Smith, and Fletcher Lowyer. A lot of people expect Trey Kaufman-Renn to be a breakout start. Purdue enters the year as the Big Ten favorite.  Three portal adds in the projected starting 5 for Indiana. Each of the projected Hoosiers starters averaged at-least 11.5 ppg last year.  Four transfers in UCLA’s projected starting 5. Year 1 for the Bruins in the Big Ten. If Cooper Flagg wasn’t getting every headline about incoming Freshman Nationally, the Scarlet Knights Freshman duo of Airious Bailey, and Dylan Harper might be getting more hype.  I’ve seen multiple sites calling Illinois a conference darkhorse.  Here is the Big Ten Preseason Poll.

SEC – While the Big 12 has five teams in the AP Top 10, the SEC has nine teams in the AP Top 25 (Alabama #2, Auburn #11, Tennessee #12, Texas A&M #13, Arkansas #16, Texas #19, Florida #21, Kentucky #23, Ole Miss #24).  The Volunteers have 3 transfers in their projected starting 5.  The Aggies have 7 of their Top 8 scores back, and added to projected starters in the portal. Senior Guard Wade Taylor averaged 19 ppg last year. Mark Pope begins his first season as Head Coach of Kentucky. He won a National Championship with Kentucky as a player in ’96. The past 5 years he’s been the Head Coach at BYU, where he finished 2nd overall in the West Coast Conference in his first two seasons, and 5th overall in the WCC each of the last three years. The starting 5 are all transfers, with 4 of the 5 scoring in double-figures at their previous stops. Pope has the Kentucky job, because John Calipari moved on to Arkansas, where he quickly assembled a talented roster via the portal.  Here is the SEC Preseason Poll.

The Mid-Major Top 25

CBS Sports Top 100 & 1 Best Teams

Andy Katz’s Picks To Win Each Conference

Jay Bilas’ Preseason All-American Teams

Local Schools

Coppin State – Projected to finish 8th (last) in the MEAC.  Ryan Archey named 2nd team Preaseason All-MEAC.

Loyola – Projected to finish 10th (last) in the Patriot League.

Morgan State – Projected to finish 4th in the MEAC.  Wynston Tabbs, and Will Thomas both named 1st team Preaseason All-MEAC.  Kameron Hobbs named 3rd team.

Mount St. Mary’s – Projected to finish 11th (out of 13) in the MAAC.

Navy – Projected to finish 8th in the Patriot League.  Austin Benigni named 1st team Preseason All-Patriot League.

UMBC – Projected to finish 5th (out of 9) in the American East.  Marcus Banks named 1st team Preseason All-American East.

Towson – Projected to win the Coastal Athletic Conference.  Tyler Tejada named 1st team Preseason All-CAA.  Christian May named 2nd team. Dylan Williamson named Honorable Mention.

Maryland – Projected to finish 10th in the Big Ten.  Our thoughts on the Terps here.

Who Cuts Down The Nets?

CBS Sports Picks

ESPN’s Picks

Games Of Note This Week

Mississippi State at #5 Iowa State –  Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard was voted 2nd team Preseason SEC.

#19 Texas at Ohio State –  The Buckeyes are projected to finish 8th in the Big Ten, which means they’re looked as a potential bubble team. Chance to get immediate help to their resume.

#8 Baylor at #6 Gonzaga – Rematch of the 2021 National Championship game. Gonzaga has another strong out-of-conference schedule, with Baylor currently looking like their primary challenge.

#9 North Carolina at #1 Kansas – Rematch of the 2022 National Championship game.  UNC’s guards and wings should compete well. They are said to be limited inside. How do they handle Hunter Dickinson?

#12 Tennessee at Louisville – Is Louisville improved enough to compete here?

#8 Baylor at #16 Arkansas – The Bears aren’t exactly easing into their schedule. Credit to them for going out and starting their season with two difficult road games.

#11 Auburn at #4 Houston – An SEC powerhouse at a Big 12 powerhouse.

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