Year 3 of the Kevin Willard era is fast approaching.
We gave some expanded thoughts on what we liked and questioned about the roster back in June, which you can read here.
With the first game (Nov. 4th, 7PM, Manhattan) rapidly approaching; here are some quick hits on a couple of topics.
Will Maryland Make The NCAA Tournament?
CBS Sports has their Big Ten preview out, and projects Maryland to finish 11th in Conference play.
The Big Ten Media Preseason Poll has MD finishing 10th.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s Preseason Projected Bracket has MD as one of the first 4 teams out.
Last year, the SEC and Big 12 both placed 8 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
The Big Ten had 6 teams.
In 2023, the Big Ten and SEC both had 8 teams in the NCAAs, and the Big 12 had 7.
Maybe the conference expansions which have taken place; will mean the Power Conferences add additional teams this coming March.
That’s to be determined.
Let’s go with the thought that the Big Ten will place 7.
A team projected from most sources to finish somewhere 9th to 11th overall, doesn’t have to vastly exceed expectations to finish in the Top 7.
After finishing 16-17 overall last year, including 7-13 in Big Ten play; I think it’s fair to say National expectations for MD are middling at best.
The consensus seems to be that MD will finish outside the bubble.
One other note here, 7 Big Ten teams might be a lot based on the Preseason Polls.
The AP Preseason Poll has 4 Big Ten teams in their Top 25, with Purdue leading the way at 14th overall.
What Will Maryland Look Like?
Last year the identify of the Terrapins was that they couldn’t shoot.
At-all.
This year, the roster has largely turned over.
MD finished 62nd overall in the 2023-24 KenPom Rankings.
MD was 155th in Offensive Efficiency, and 14th in Defensive Efficiency.
MD was 302nd in Adjusted Tempo.
In 2022-23 we saw MD finish 23rd overall in KenPom.
The Terps were 36th in Offensive Efficiency, and 32nd in Defensive Efficiency.
The Terps were 326th in Adjusted Tempo.
This year?
I think all you can say at this point is that Willard will likely have a quality defensive team, and that the tempo is not going to be high.
Willard was quoted at Media Day as saying, “I would gladly sacrifice 12 defensive spots in KenPom to be a 50 to 65 [ranked offense] … be somewhere near 25 and 25, that’s my goal every year.”
You’d like to think they’ll be significantly better this season, but it’s hard to have a great feel for what MD has until we see this new team together out on the court.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Julian Reese both received votes for 2nd Team All-Big Ten in the Preseason Media Poll.
As heralded as he is, Derik Queen was not in the Top 3 in votes for Big Ten Freshman of the Year.
In the Summer there was lots of discussion that Willard would stagger minutes between Reese and Queen.
As the year approaches, there has been more comments from Willard about their ability to play together.
I like everything I’ve heard about Gillespie. Not sure he’s going to be as good as Jamir Young, but it’s completely reasonable to expect him to be productive.
MD’s got improved length and athleticism.
They have two bigs who will play a lot. Actually three, when you include Transfer Tafara Gapare.
When thinking about the potential ceiling of this roster, and picturing how they’ll look together; the real question is will this Terps team be able to shoot?
Gillespie made 39% of his 3’s last year.
Selton Miguel made 39% of his 3’s last year.
Rodney Rice is supposed to be a capable shooter.
DeShawn Harris-Smith had a very rough year shooting as a Freshman. Will he be a more confident and productive shooter this year?
Chance Stephens was a Medical Redshirt last year. As a Freshman at Loyola Marymount, he hit 37.4% of his 3 point attempts.
Defenses are going to collapse on the bigs, and these guys have to show they can regularly knock down shots.
If they do, MD has a chance to be pretty good.
Out Of Conference Schedule Games Of Note
Maryland has Marquette at home November 15th.
Marquette is picked to finish 2nd in the Big East according to CBS Sports.
No Tyler Kolek to run the show anymore. First season for Shaka Smart at MU in which he doesn’t have Kolek. That type of loss would drop a lot of teams, but Marquette’s culture and roster retention is so healthy it would be a genuine shock if this band wasn’t top-four in the Big East yet again. As it stands, we’re putting them in the 2-hole going into November. Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell are back, bringing spunk and a scoring streak to ‘quette that can keep Smart’s program in the top three in Big East offensive efficiency for a third straight season. David Joplin on the wing and Ben Gold down low are also still around, giving MU ever-valuable minutes coming back. If Sean Jones (ACL) can return at some point this season and be a plus contributor, the Golden Eagles will have six players back who averaged 16-plus minutes last season. No other Big East school (and perhaps no other high-major program) returns that many players who played that many minutes.
Marquette is 18th overall in the Preseason AP Poll.
The Terps will face Villanova at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Nov. 24th.
Villanova is picked to finish 7th in the Big East according to CBS Sports.
A consequential campaign awaits on the Main Line. Kyle Neptune’s third season on the job most likely has to include an NCAA Tournament appearance in order to get to a fourth. Villanova has significantly slipped in the national landscape over the past two years, following Jay Wright’s retirement and that privileged 2022 Final Four run. Nova went 18-16 last season and lost to Philly brethren Penn, Saint Joe’s and Drexel along the way. The thud: The Wildcats were soundly defeated at home in the first round of the NIT by VCU. These results can’t continue. It starts with Eric Dixon, the bruising power forward who has been a consistent bright spot amid the darkening times. He and Jordan Longino are the guys back who will be the voices in the locker room that ring loudest. The big portal add was Miami‘s Wooga Poplar, an athletic shooting guard still scraping at his ceiling. He’s the player giving VU fans hope this year can be better. Villanova has underperformed relative to expectations the past two seasons. Now it needs to overshoot in Year 3 of Neptune’s tenure.
Maryland will face Syracuse in the Gotham Classic in Brooklyn December 21st.
The ACC Media Preseason Poll has Syracuse finishing 11th in the ACC.
How Deep Is The Rotation?
Guards: Gillespie, Rice, Stephens, Palmer, Young, Long*
Wings: Miguel, Harris-Smith
Bigs: Reese, Queen, Gapare, Geronimo, Pierce
The starters appear to be Gillespie, Miguel, Harris-Smith, Reese, and Queen.
Rice is going to get time.
So will Gapare, and Geronimo.
I think one player (likely Stephens) emerges from Stephens / Malachi Palmer / Jay Young.
The unknown for me right now is the health of Jahari Long.
If he’s healthy, he’s going to play.
If there’s been an update to the status of his knee (injured March 14th vs. Rutgers); I’ve missed it.
Either way, Willard has options.
He’ll probably consistently play 8, but it’s not unrealistic to think up to 10 can get some regular time.
Is Queen 1 and Done?
ESPN’s Current NBA Draft Board has Queen as the 25th best Draft Prospect.
So quite possibly this will be a short-tenure for Queen in College Park.
Maryland needs to make the most of it.
Can he be a 12 point, 8 rebound guy right away?
Can he consistently score against experienced, quality bigs who have had more time in the weight room?
Can he demand enough attention to make life easier for the guards and wings?
He’s received good marks for has passing ability and feel for the game.
How are his hands?
Defensively, will he be a presence?
Queen turns 20 in December, so he’s not overly young, but obviously he’s still a young man.
He played at the prestigious Monteverde Academy after transferring from St. Frances, and he’s been a big name Nationally for sometime.
I’m sure the lights won’t be too bright for him.
But figure there has to be some adjustment to being the big man on campus, with everyone vying for your attention.
If he’s MD’s best player, are the older guys ready to adjust to that reality?
Is he ready to lead MD as a Freshman?
Is that too much to ask of him?
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.