Fact and Opinion | Baltimore Sports and Life

Fact & Opinion – Orioles Edition

Chris Stoner — Fri, 24 May 2013 04:44:57 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist (and current Ravens.com contributor) John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

You can discuss this on the BSL board here.

Fact: 22 year old Kevin Gausman made his Major League debut tonight, going 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 er, 1 hr, 2 bb’s, with 5 k’s.

Opinion: I’m very impressed. This is a guy that was starting in college last June. He had 15 pro innings last year. He had under 50 this year. You can’t expect a finished refined product. You can’t teach that stuff though. And I love that his mechanics look repeatable. As many people said during the BSL Game thread he was spending a lot of time up in the zone. You are going to want to see him work in more 2 seamers. I thought he showed some run with the 4 seam, but it was a little flat at times. Love the change-up, and do believe that can be an out pitch for him at the ML level. Just a lot to like, and be excited about. I fully expect him to stay in the O’s rotation, and be an effective back of the rotation starter this year. That has plenty of value, and as he gains experience, the sky really is the limit for him.

Fact: The Orioles are currently 4th in the Majors in runs scored.

Opinion: I don’t expect them to stay at quite this level, but do expect them to finish somewhere between 10th – 12th overall. Basically an upper 1/3 offense.

Fact: Baltimore is 20th overall in Quality Starts.

Opinion: While Quality Starts is not overly descriptive, it does provide a general overview. Bottom-line, the rotation has not been good enough. Barring any external addition, the key to the rotation remains Hammel. My BSL colleague Jeff Long recently had a good look at Hammel’s struggles this year. His last start was an improvement, let’s see if he can build on that. Generally, I expect the rotation to improve. Chen will return, and will keep the O’s in most games. Tillman has been very solid over his last 6 outings. Combined with what the 25 year old did over the 2nd half last year, you currently have to be pretty confident when Tillman takes the mound. Gonzalez came off the DL to deliver a quality outing vs. New York. It’s not hard for me to envision him as an effective 4th or 5th starter the rest of the year. As mentioned above, I expect the same from Gausman the rest of the year.

Even though I expect the rotation to improve, I believe adding another known quantity to the front of the O’s rotation has to be the priority if Baltimore is going to again legitimately compete for a Playoff appearance.

Fact: After allowing 1 er in 13 outings between April 21st and May 11th, Strop has allowed 5 er over his last 5 outings, including 2 tonight.

Opinion: As evidenced by my 2013 Projection for Strop, I’m a fan of his ability. At this point we’ve seen a guy that was excellent in April – July 2012, ok in August, poor in September, good in the World Baseball Classic, and poor over April – May 2013.

What should the O’s do with him? With Strop being out of options – and unable to be directly sent to the Minors without going through waivers – many O’s fans just want to designate him for assignment.

I’m not excited by that prospect. At his best, he showed a very high ceiling. I don’t want to just give him away for nothing. As poor as he has been this year, going into tonight, his OPS against was .691. His Batting Average Against was .206. His K/9 ratio was 8.83. His GB% was 53.3%. For a guy not pitching well, those are some encouraging numbers. They provide indication of his ‘stuff’.

That said, it does not matter what stuff you have, if you can’t throw a strike. His mechanics tonight were just ridiculously horrible. Flying open, giving himself no chance at success.

My preference? Try and hide him some over the next Month, and use him in lower-leverage situations. When you go to augment the team with external additions in July, have him available as an extra-piece to be included from the O’s. On his own, he is not going to bring back much of anything of value. As part of a larger trade, someone will value him as a piece.

Fact: Jim Johnson blew 3 saves last week.

Opinion: It was tough to watch, but that’s baseball. Johnson was great in ’12, arguably better in ’11, and very strong to begin ’13. Even with mediocre k rates (actually improved, and pretty solid this year), Johnson is an elite Closer. I have full confidence in him having another excellent year.

Fact: Matusz has pitched 18.1 innings in his 22 outings.

Opinion: While part of me would like to see Matusz get another opportunity to start, the O’s have not shown any inclination to remove him from the bullpen. As such, I hope to see him provide additional innings. 7 of his last 10 outings have been under an inning of work. Mostly just LOOGY usage. That seems like a general waste of his abilities.

Fact: Davis hit his 15th homer tonight. For the year, he is batting .327, with those 15 homers, 15 doubles, 44 rbi, 24 bb’s, 47 k’s, and his OPS is 1.114.

Opinion: Last year he had 37 bb’s, and 169 k’s. Is his elevated production the result of that improved plate discipline, or are pitchers being more cautious with him – allowing him to be more selective? Probably a bit of both. He certainly deserves credit for reducing his swings on balls outside of the strike-zone. The power Davis has is remarkable. A true ’80.’ Davis will struggle at some point (things do even out), but it seems reasonable to expect him to finish this year with an OPS at .850 and above. The 27 year old is arbitration eligible the next 2 years, and a Free Agent in 2016. I don’t believe anyone thinks he is going to maintain this herculean level. However, his production this year gives credence that last year was not a fluke (and that further upside exists). I’d like to see the O’s pursue an extension now.

Fact: After a .570 OPS in April, Hardy has a .832 OPS in May. (Though his on-base % in May, is still under 30%.)

Opinion: It’s a much deeper lineup when Hardy is producing. I think when he concentrates on going opposite field, he gets more pitches on the inner-half to turn on.

Fact: Arrieta, Britton, and S. Johnson have each had outings for the O’s this year. Wada has made 2 starts for AAA Norfolk.

Opinion: All 4 of them will have time in an O’s uniform during the rest of the year. Should need arise (when need arises), they could (will) find themselves getting additional starts. I also see them as alternatives to Patton, Strop, and McFarland in the bullpen.

Fact: Jones has played in all 47 games. He is batting .317, with 7 homers, 15 doubles, 31 rbi, 8 bb’s, 41 k’s, 8 steals, and has a .845 OPS. In those 47 games, he has hits in 40 of them.

Opinion: He can be somewhat frustrating in the sense, that it is not that hard to envision him being ‘that much better.’ However, I think he should be enjoyed/respected for what he is – not hated for what we wish he was.

.873 OPS in April, .787 OPS in May. 4 of his 6 full Months in ’11 were over .800 as well.

His UZR/150 is crushing his fWAR right now, but that figures to improve some. Probably won’t look ‘good’, but doesn’t figure to look as bad as it does now. The plate discipline doesn’t figure to change – and while that is disappointing (and limiting) – he remains one of the better offensive CF’s in the game overall.

He generally plays hard, best evidenced by how he slides into 2nd. I respect that as well. Could he be better? Sure. But he’s pretty damn good.

Fact: After his 3 doubles tonight, Machado is now batting: .330, with 21 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers, 10 bb’s, 29 k’s, with an OPS of .889. His UZR/150 is 30.6. He turns 21 on July 6th.

Opinion: Wow. What a pleasure he is to watch play on a daily basis. He’s crushing what I thought was the ceiling for him this year. I guess I expect his numbers to come down. Mainly because they are at an absurd level for anyone, so it is hard to expect anyone to play at an MVP level for an entire year – let alone a guy who has just 97 Major League games under his belt. Still, when you see how advanced his approach is at the plate – you wonder if there is anything he can’t achieve.

Fact: Following the 12-6 lost in Toronto, the Orioles are 25-22 overall, 3.5 GB of the Yankees in the AL East. Boston and Detroit are currently the two American League Wild Cards, with the O’s 2GB of Detroit. There are 50 games until the All-Star break. There are 62 games until the Non-Waiver Deadline.

Opinion: They say it every year because it is true. 162 games is a marathon, not a sprint. When you play that many games, you simply can’t allow yourself to get too high or too low depending on the events of the day.

You are not as good as you look when going great, nor as bad as you look when going bad.
It’s a long year. There are ups. There are downs.

The O’s offense will be solid enough if their regulars stay healthy. The rotation looks horrible right now, but I think can return to being average ish. The defense is pretty good (currently 4th in defensive efficiency). The bullpen was great last year, and strong this year until the past week. I think they will again be ‘plus’.

If the O’s can get to the non-waiver deadline, and still be in things – I believe the O’s will augment. The question is can the O’s stay respectable between now and the end of July?

The post Fact & Opinion – Orioles Edition appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 10 Orioles Quick-hits

Chris Stoner — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 15:13:06 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist (and current CSNBaltimore.com contributor) John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact: While not officially on the table, new Arizona Diamondbacks General Manager Kevin Towers has stated he is willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton.

Opinion: The 23 year-old Upton is one of the most talented players in the game. The former 1st overall pick of the draft already has 1,500 Major League at-bats, and has compiled a respectable .824 OPS for his career. Prior to last-year Upton signed a $51.25M dollar extension through the 2015 season. If Upton is moved, some team will acquire a player heading towards the prime of his career that has a very reasonable contract.

Of course Towers is aware of this, so any team that would obtain Upton would be giving-up a substantial price. There is talk that the Blue Jays have told Towers he can have any 5 prospects existing within their system. The equivalent of what that would take from the Orioles would be crippling, regardless of the talents of Upton. I would love to see him Upton in an Oriole uniform, but it does not make sense for this team now.

Fact: Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reported Thursday that the O’s have had discussions with Tampa about swapping David Hernandez for SS Jason Bartlett, and have also spoken with Minnesota about SS JJ Hardy.

Opinion: I think I have been consistent and clear about how I want the O’s to upgrade at SS, and both Bartlett and Hardy represent improvement over Izturis. That said, I am not trading Hernandez for Bartlett. Everyone understands it takes talent to get talent. What is more important to understand though, is that for the O’s to get to a position where they can annually contend with New York and Boston, they are going to need a roster comprised with as many young / cheap / productive players as possible. Hernandez is young, cheap, and already productive. He is also under team control for years, and still has further un-tapped potential. Showalter was hired the first week of August, and Hernandez missed all of that month. Hernandez did return for September (and was productive 12 k’s in 9.2 innings) but I did not think he was quite as good as he had been earlier in the year. Due to that, I could see Showalter believing Hernandez was easily expendable. I think having a guy capable of multiple innings, with the stuff to eventually close is a commodity you do not want to lose.

Out of the two SS’s, I would prefer Hardy. I would easily give up either Berken, or Johnson for either one.

Fact: MLB TradeRumors.com reported yesterday that the O’s would bid on posted Japanese SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Baltimore Sun, and MASN’s Roch Kubatko responded to that report and stated it was inaccurate. The O’s remained undecided of whether to make a bid, and were leaning towards not.

Opinion: If Hiroyuki Nakajima had been posted, I would have wanted the O’s to bid on him. In comparison there are more questions with how Nishioka’s game would translate to MLB. There is plenty to like about Nishioka. He is a switch-hitter, with speed, and described as a strong athlete. Supposedly there were questions about his maturity earlier in his career, but those around him have stated the 26 year-old grew-up considerably this season. The 5x Japanese All-Star, and 3x Gold Glove led the Nippon Professional Baseball with a .346 average this year. His former Manager Bobby Valentine believes he can stay at SS in the Majors. The fact that well-run organizations like Boston, and Minnesota are interested only increases my belief the O’s should be involved here. It is a bit of a roll of the dice, but the overall contract (even when factoring in the likely posting-fee) would be very manageable. The upside for Nishioka is higher than the other options existing to the O’s.

Fact: The Orioles are continuing negotiations with Koji Uehara.

Opinion: Even with his injury issues, I want the O’s to offer him a 2 year deal. It would be hard for Uehara to turn that down. If Uehara declined, you offer arbitration and let him leave for the additional draft-pick you would receive as compensation.

Fact: WTSB 10 News in Tampa reported yesterday that Carlos Pena’s college friend (and Boston Globe writer) Nick Cafardo believes Pena could return to Tampa on a 1 year deal.

Opinion: That makes sense to me. You hear the O’s rumored with Pena often, and can probably obtain him if they are willing to give two years guaranteed for his services. That would be difficult for the O’s to agree to though. While he is a former Gold Glove, the advanced metrics show a decline over the past 3 years. The .196 batting average in 2010 does not completely scare me off, nor does his strikeouts (166, 163, 158 the last 3 years) – but both have to be acknowledged. It is also worth noting his average has declined 3 straight seasons. Still, he probably is still respectable at 1st, will take a walk, and does have power. (Homer totals of 46, 31, 39, 28 the last 4 years). I think I would consider 1 year with a team-option that vests with performance.

Fact: Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman stated on Twitter this week that the O’s are pursuing Paul Konerko.

Opinion: The O’s attempted to obtain Konerko years ago when Flanagan and Beattie were in charge, and Konerko actually came and visited Baltimore. If I remember correctly, he was gracious in his comments at the time. Konerko had a monster 2010 at age 35. He finished with a .977 OPS (.854 for his career, including .783 in ’08, and .842 in .’09) that included a .312 batting average, 39 homers, and 111 rbi. His on-base % was .393 (.356 for his career). His career-rates are very solid, and if you pursue him that is what you should be paying for. If you bid on him expecting his 2010 production, you are in for disappointment. Konerko would greatly improve the O’s lineup, there is no doubt about that. It is fairly unrealistic to have a team that is fully comprised of guys in their prime. Giving Konerko a 3 year deal (taking him to age 38) is a risk, but might be worthwhile for Baltimore. The biggest negative I see is that Konerko is a Type A Free Agent.

Fact: ESPN Desportes reported the Oakland Athletics offered Adrian Beltre 5 years and $64 Million.

Opinion: I would have no problem going to 5 years and $70-$75 Million if that would it a deal done. Preferably, I’d offer 4 years and the same $64M that Oakland offered. The money is less of an issue than the years.

The post Fact & Opinion 10 Orioles Quick-hits appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 9 Orioles Off-season

Chris Stoner — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 11:07:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist (and current CSNBaltimore.com contributor) John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact: The San Diego Padres declined their 2011 option on Jon Garland, leading some to speculate he could be of interest to the Baltimore Orioles.

Opinion: The Orioles do not need to obtain him or any other veteran starter. (Cliff Lee will not be standing at a podium at the Warehouse this Winter, so we are talking about the class of starter whose best attribute is providing innings.) I like the idea of going into Spring Training with a staff that looks like Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, Bergesen, and Tillman. With Britton waiting in the wings in AAA, and other internal options like VandenHurk, Berken, and Hernandez if need be.

You want to guess how Garland would fair in the AL East? Pay less attention to his ’10 numbers with San Diego in those huge National League West ballparks, and more attention to his ’08 numbers with the Angels. You might as well just bring back Millwood, if Garland is an actual option.

Fact: Jason Berken has announced he is on pace to begin his throwing program in December, and he has received multiple recommendations that surgery is not required.

Opinion: This is the best news of the Winter so far for the Birds. Not because I believe Berken will directly match the production he showed in the 1st-half of last-year, but because a healthy Berken only adds to the depth being assembled in the O’s bullpen.

Several times prior to the off-season, Andy MacPhail stated publicly that adding someone externally to the bullpen would be something that is considered.

Right now we are looking at bullpen that includes Gonzalez, Hernandez, Johnson, and Berken. That is four. If you resign Uehara, that is five. I would expect the O’s to have one of VandenHurk or Simon in the pen, that is six. Patton or a FA lefty addition would be seven.

Fact: A number of Coaching staff moves have occurred. Pitching Coach Rick Kranitz moved to the Astros, and appears that he will be replaced by Mark Connor. The Crow will no longer be on the bench, and has been replaced by Jim Presley. Rick Adair has been named the bullpen coach. Wayne Kirby will be the coach at 1st, and in a bit of surprise Juan Samuel will likely be back at 3rd. If Don Wakamatsu does not get a Managerial gig of his own, he is the leading candidate to be Showalter’s bench-coach.

Opinion: I really do not care about any of these moves beyond the idea that I am happy that Showalter is getting to formulate his coaching staff as he deems fit. There has been plenty of discussion about Crowley over the years, and my feelings have always been mixed. A lot of players directly stated they liked working with him, and that he improved their swing mechanics technically. The results though showed the Orioles were consistently mediocre at taking pitches, working counts, and getting on-base. I’m happy Crowley is staying in the organization, and also excited that a new voice will be heard in the O’s dugout. I thought it was interesting that Matusz had spoke out publicly about his desire for Kranitz to return. Based on that alone, I would have been tempted to bring him back. All-in-all though, that would have been the easy decision. It is better that despite Matusz’s proclamation, that Showalter surrounded himself with the coach he was more comfortable with.

I was surprised that Samuel was going to be named to the staff. After-all he was not part of the staff when Showalter took over. Still, Showalter did go out of his way to thank Samuel for his contributions before he (Showalter) was hired. Also, we all heard about the respect the team had for Samuel during his time as Manager.

Fact: Peter Gammons recently wrote that he believes the Detroit Tigers will be willing to give Victor Martinez a 4 year deal.

Opinion: I believe Martinez will be pursued by the O’s, but would be surprised if the Orioles were willing to offer 4 years.

Fact: The Tigers declined their option on Jhonny Peralta, but Detroit still has interest in resigning the SS.

Opinion: Peralta is 28, and has been just a .700 OPS hitter over the previous two seasons (.748 for his career). He is also known as a mediocre SS (also nearly 300 career games at 3rd) that will make the routine play, that has limited range. I’ll still take him over Izturis if Detroit does not get him resigned.That is not me not valuing defense, it just my belief that Izturis is not a Ozzie Smith or Belanger, and because of that you can justify bringing him back. He is the worst everyday offensive player in the Majors. Peralta has had 3 seasons of 20+ homers, and brings some upside.

The post Fact & Opinion 9 Orioles Off-season appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 8

Chris Stoner — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:24:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist (and current BaltimoreRavens.com contributor) John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact:
With the loss today against Virginia Tech, the University of Maryland Football team fell to 2-8 overall, and 1-5 in the ACC.

Opinion:
I am excited that Jamarr Robinson is getting some playing-time, not because I believe he is the answer, but because at-least he will not be a total unknown heading into 2010. The Terps are going to lose their next two games against FSU, and Boston College and end this miserable season at 2-10, 1-7.

Athletic Director Debbie Yow has to decide immediately if Coach Friedgen will return for next-season, or if she will buy the remainder of his contract.

Buying out the remainder of his contract will not be easy for a program that is financially strapped. Even if Maryland is capable of buying out his contract, it has to argued internally what benefit would occur by handing the program over to Offensive Coordinator James Franklin.

If the team finishes 2-10, with the offense as one of the major problems, how does promoting Franklin change things for the better?

If the University of Maryland decides to buy out Coach Friedgen’s contract, they need to find another million dollars, and show Coach Franklin the door.

While I think program change might be appropriate, I am not totally against Friedgen’s return next year. There were plenty of people hurling dirt onto Gary Williams’ grave last February. Since then, the basketball team advanced to the 2nd-round of the NCAA’s, Williams has signed a talented class for 2010, and he now has a team capable of doing damage this year.

The ingredients exist for a quick turn around of fortunes for the football team as well. The reason that this 2009 season is so disappointing is not just the losses, it is looking at the roster and seeing that there collectively is talent that is not producing. While that lack of development ultimately falls on Friedgen’s shoulders, I still believe the talent exists for the Terps to rise back up and win 8 or so games in 2010.

Fact:
There is a 3 page thread with 55 responses, and nearly 1,700 page views on InsideMDsports (www.insidemdsports.com) debating the merits (and possibilities) of Brian Billick as the next Head Coach of Maryland.

Opinion:
In May, at the WNST King of Baltimore Sports Talk competition at Padonia Station, I asked Coach Brian Billick of his thoughts of returning to the college ranks. His response was lukewarm at-best. Since then, I have blogged several-times about I continue to think he is the hire Maryland needs.

Next-year will be Coach Billick’s 3rd year out of the league. With Cowher, Gruden, Shanahan, and Holmgren all considered ‘prettier’ NFL coaching candidates, it will be hard for Billick to get back into the NFL next year.

If you were to make a program change, and find the money necessary to buy out both Friedgen, and Franklin; Billick would be the right man to pursue. Unlike hiring Franklin, who has his fingers all over the lack of results for this season, hiring Billick could awaken donors.

Fact:
Adam Warwas of The National Sports Review (http://nationalsportsreview.com/sports/us/NFL/2009/11/13/the-gridiron-gab%E2%80%99s-first-2010-nfl-mock-draft/) posted a NFL Mock Draft this week which had Terp OT Bruce Campbell in the Top 10 overall.

Opinion:
It is not surprising that with Campbell’s size, strength, and athleticism that he is considered a potential 1st-round pick. The draft is less about results, and more about how a player projects going forward. Campbell has everything you would want. Still, his results have been inconsistent (in large part to injuries). If Campbell is a legit 1st round pick, you could not blame him for leaving. Though if I were Campbell part of me would want to return for another season at College Park, to right the wrongs of this pathetic year.

Fact:
Florida Marlins 2nd baseman Dan Uggla stated Friday that he would resist moving from 2nd-base.

Opinion:
That pronouncement makes his chances of becoming an Oriole go from unlikely, to non-existent.

Even if he was open to moving to 3rd, it would only make sense for Baltimore if the price was as cheap as a 2nd-tier pitching prospect like Steven Johnson.

Fact:
Brandon Snyder has finished his time in the Arizona Fall League, and Josh Bell will be done shortly.

Snyder finished with a 1.056 OPS in 65 at-bats. Among his 23 overall hits, were 5 doubles, 1 triple, and 3 homers. He walked 13 times, while striking out 11 times, and had 18 rbi.

Combining these numbers with his AA, and AAA 2009 production, Snyder finished this year with:

528 at-bats, 148 games, 157 hits, 42 doubles, 4 triples, 15 homers, 106 rbi, 64 walks, 120 k’s, and an OPS around .845.

Bell has an .867 OPS in 75 at-bats in the AFL. Among his 24 overall hits, are 6 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 homer. He has walked 9 times, while striking out 15 times, and has 15 rbi.

Combining these numbers with his AA production at both Bowie, and Chattanooga, Bell has the following cumulative 2009 numbers:

523 at-bats, 146 games, 156 hits, 41 doubles, 3 triples, 23 homers, 91 rbi, 70 walks, 113 k’s, and an OPS around .880.

Opinion:
I continue to believe they will both be starting for the O’s by June 1st, but also think that they could be the best options for the team on Opening Day. While I want to (and expect to) see major improvement in the results of the 2010 Orioles, it is still a developmental year. 2011 is the year I want to contend.

Snyder may or may not be the long-term answer at 1st, but giving him all of 2010 to go through adjustments and seeing where his production ends is attractive to me. With 500 Major League at-bats, you would have a strong gauge of Snyder’s ability to help you going forward.

With Bell, I do believe he is the long-term answer at 3rd. I think with his pronounced splits as a left-handed, and right-handed hitter, there are legitimate reasons to want him to get additional Minor League at-bats. However, he is a good defensive 3rd-baseman, athletic, and would only have to be replacing Mora’s minimal 2009 production. I like the idea of him having an entire Major League season to adjust, and be in better position to produce regularly for you in 2011.

Fact:
Jeff Zriebec of the Baltimore Sun had an interesting article this week, about the O’s possible off-season agenda.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-orioles-gm-meetings-1111,0,2392879.story

Opinion:
The most interesting piece of information to me was that the O’s were in fact considering the return or Erik Bedard.

It will be interesting to hear about the true health of his shoulder, and his presumed availability to pitch in 2010.

Fact:
There are 9 teams in the AFC that have a record equal to, or better than the Ravens.

Opinion:
If the Ravens can get to 10-6, they will have an opportunity to make the playoffs. I can see wins at Cleveland, at Oakland, and wins over Detroit and Chicago at home. The Ravens should also be able to split with Pittsburgh in the home and home division match-up. Until proven otherwise, I have no confidence in the Ravens ability to beat Peyton Manning. If that all holds true, then at Green Bay on Monday night 12/7 might prove to be the key to the season.

If you told the Ravens today that you could guarantee a post-season birth, even if it meant 3 road wins to advance to the Super Bowl, I am sure every Raven would agree to that deal. For the Ravens to advance to the playoffs (and have success if they get there), they have again reclaim the identity of a team that can pound the rock, and stop the run.

Fact:
Two weeks ago, the Cleveland Browns fired a former Ravens executive from their General Manager position, for the 2nd-time in a year. After firing Phil Savage earlier this year, the Browns fired George Kokinis after less than a year in the position.

Opinion:
While Kokinis obviously did not get a fair opportunity to lay his imprint on the organization, his dismissal again raises red-flags for me. While Ozzie Newsome is taking a lot of criticism for some of his off-season decisions, the fact remains he has been considered among the leagues best executives for years.

If Newsome were ever to quickly bolt from Baltimore, the current Director of Player Personnel Eric DeCosta would be seen as the most-likely candidate to take over that position. Savage, Kokinis, and James ‘Shack’ Harris were all held in the same, or higher-esteem as DeCosta, and had numerous issues during their initial stint as a GM. Why not bring one of these men back into the organization (Harris is currently with Detroit), and make them the choice to succeed Newsome? The obvious benefit being they would not be handling the GM responsibilities for the first-time, and they could build off of their prior experience.

Fact:
In the Terps basketball opener last-night, Maryland had 7 players score at-least 9 points.

Opinion:
I am looking forward to the next two games against Fairfield, and New Hampshire to see if Jordan Williams, and James Padgett can take steps towards being consistent performers.

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I think there is legitimate reason to believe they will be able to regularly help. The reason for that is, is that their strengths are going to remain strengths regardless of opposition. At 6’10 260 lbs, Williams is going to be able to eat up space against anyone. In the flex-offense, with Vasquez, Hayes, and Bowie handling the ball; Williams is going to get a lot of looks from point blank range. If you have hands, and you can finish, you can flourish as a big in this offense.

Padgett’s ability to jump out of the gym (and get back up and off the floor quickly) is going to remain in his arsenal against anyone. He has the ability to use both hands, and finish around the rim.

If these two show some consistency these next couple of games, the 2nd-round match-up against Vanderbilt/Cincinnati at the Maui Classic is going to be a lot of fun to watch as a measuring stick.

I think it is going to become apparent quickly, that there are not 25 better teams in the country.

The post Fact & Opinion 8 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 7

Chris Stoner — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:46:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact:
Mychal Parker gave a verbal commitment to the University of Maryland this week. Parker becomes the 3rd member of the 2010 class, joining PG Terrell Stoglin, and SG Terrence Ross.

Opinion:
It is already an outstanding recruiting class, that can become obscene if the Terps add a big.
Ross’s former high-school teammate Terrence Jones would be ideal, if he could be sold on playing inside. However, Jones looks at himself as a wing like Parker.

New names have a way of emerging, but Jeff Errman of Inside MD Sports has done an excellent job of breaking down the Terp’s recruiting prospects:

http://www.insidemdsports.com/index.php?option=com_wrapper&view=wrapper&Itemid=77

In my opinion, the player to now aggressively pursue is Jon Graham, the son of former MD player Ernest Graham. Jon Graham is a 6’8 220 PF, ranked as a Top 60 player by ESPN, and a Top 125 player by Rivals. As the son of a former Terp, you have a built in recruiting tool. As a member of Calvert Hall in Baltimore, he fills the need of wanting to add local talent. If you added Graham, the 2010-11 roster would look like:

1) Bowie, Stoglin
2) Tucker, Ross
3) Mosley, Parker, JSC
4) Padgett, Graham
5) Williams, Goins, Burney

Fact:
Cal is a 21.5 point favorite over Maryland in the September 5th season-opener.

Opinion:
Cal should be favored, but the line is too much. MD has played a bunch of cup-cakes in season openers since 2003, and looked poor numerous times. People have used to that to point-fingers at the MD coaching staff, and say that the team was under-prepared in camp. Maybe, but I think it is probably hard to get the attention of college-kids, and get the motivated to play 1AA powers Delaware, Villanova, William & Mary, or even lower 1A teams like Navy, and No. Illinois.

You can bet that Cal has Maryland’s full-attention. Between this line, and being picked to finish 5th in the ACC Atlantic, the Terps have had plenty of sand kicked in their faces this Summer. Maryland may not pull the upset like they did in College Park last year, but I fully expect them to be in the game late.

Fact:
After having 3 hits last-night, Felix Pie is now batting .259. He has an OPS of .706.

Opinion:
I think I feel better for Pie, than anyone else on the O’s. He worked extremely hard this year to improve. Even after 158 at-bats this year, Pie has a total of 418 at-bats in the Majors. The abuse he took earlier this year, was ridiculous. Based on his age (24), and the level of production he had shown in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) there was plenty of reason to believe Pie could develop with regular and consistent playing-time.

Fact:
Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman are a combined 3-3 in their first 9 Major League starts, with 32 earned runs in 48.2 innings of work.

Opinion:
If you are not watching every pitch these two make, you are missing something. Their talent is clear, even through their early struggles. Tillman has been tagged for 9 homers in 30 innings, but still has an era under 5. He will work on keeping his fast-ball down, and improve on being less predictable with throwing the fastball in fastball counts. His pure-stuff is just excellent. Matusz has an era near 7, and has not yet had a start where he allowed less hits than IP. He also has had 7 k’s in back-to-back starts, and is making hitters look silly with his ability to work backwards.

At the absolute minimum, these two will give the O’s 300 combined innings, at a 4.50 era in 2010. My honest expectation is much higher.

Fact:
Luke Scott has taken over 1st-base with the trade of Aubrey Huff.

Opinion:
This is an excellent decision, which many of us called for through-out this season. It will allow the O’s to spend the next 40 games or so watching Pie everyday in LF, and Reimold at DH. Reimold has been battling injuries, so this can only help him. Further to that, it provides options for the O’s if they decide to send Brandon Snyder back to AAA to start 2010.

Fact:
John Rhyne Hughes was the player to be named in the Greg Zaun to Tampa deal.

Opinion:
Hughes and Michael Aubrey provide good internal depth for the O’s at 1st-base. Depending on the configuration of the roster, both could represent decent options off the bench in 2010.

Fact:
Jake Arrieta has made 3 straight starts at AAA Norfolk, where he has pitched at-least 6 innings, and allowed 2er or less. In those 19 innings, he has allowed 18 hits, 4 walks, with 15 k’s.

Opinion:
With Scott Boras as his Agent, Arrieta might not get the opportunity to make the O’s out of Spring Training, but I expect he will be an Oriole by the end of April.

Fact:
Troy Smith signed a 3 year contract with the Ravens that expires after this season.

Opinion:
I think Smith will get an opportunity to play somewhere else after this season. Assuming the latest reports are correct about John Beck being healthy, I expect Smith to be used often this season in the Wildcat. The Ravens will be more apt to use Smith, knowing that they have Beck behind him if necessary.

Fact:
The Sun’s Mike Preston speculated on a rumor he had heard about the Ravens attempting to trade Smith or D. Williams with a 2nd round pick for Denver WR Brandon Marshall.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/blog/2009/08/rumors_from_ravens_training_camp.html

Opinion:
Interesting, but I would think with Marshall lowering his value everyday in Denver, Smith and a 4th rounder would be more likely.

While I think this is unlikely, I do think there is sincere interest from the Ravens. Mason, Clayton, and Williams are all FA’s in 2010. Obtaining an All-Pro talent that would be under-contract, would make sense, even when factoring in the cost, and the risks associated with Marshall’s character.

Fact:
I only made it to Ravens camp once this summer.

Opinion:
The players that stood out that day were Peerman, Harper, and Webb. In the 1st-preseason game, Foster and Lawrence had big efforts. Do not see either one making the team, but Foster looked like he could help someone in their return game, and Lawrence was a pretty straight line banger, that also showed he could catch the ball out of the backfield.

I read up on Lawrence, and saw that he started his career at UConn, but transferred to UMass. Had a leg injury, got healthy, and had a huge senior season. He teminded me of the RB’s that Denver found year after year.

I am looking forward to watching the bubble guys in the 2nd-preseason game.

The post Fact & Opinion 7 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 6

Chris Stoner — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 19:50:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact:
Derrick Mason announced his retirement from the NFL this week.

Opinion:
I do believe that retirement sounded appealing after losing his friend, dealing with the shoulder-surgery, and the training-camp of Coach Harbaugh looming. I also believe that if Mason was actually set on being retired, he would not agree to meet with the Ravens, and would have already turned in his retirement paperwork to the league. If the Ravens extend his contract 1 year, I believe he will be back.

Fact:
Many Raven fans are irritated at Mason for the timing of his announcement.

Opinion:
Two weeks prior to the start of training-camp, is not great-timing. That said, instead of announcing his retirement, the news easily could have been he blew out his ACL training. The bigger issue is that the Ravens were left in a precarious position because they had not improved the WR core.

Fact:
The Ravens were able to extend Terrell Suggs long-term.

Opinion:
I wonder if the Organization will be able to now turn their attention to similar extensions for Ngata, Gaither, Clayton, and Washington; or if the organization’s attention will solely be on adding to the WR’s.

Fact:
The Baltimore Orioles have gone 24-23 overall, in their last 47 games, winning 6 of their last 9 series.

Opinion:
47 games is 29% of a 162 game season, and a viable sample-size. For the O’s to have played just over .500 ball in this stretch, with minimal contributions from Roberts, Jones, and Markakis, Wieters just getting his feet-wet, and the pitching not of the caliber of what should be expected in 2010; is very encouraging.

Fact:
I recently argued that Brandon Snyder should be the Oriole 3rd-baseman to start 2010.

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/07/snyder-back-to-3rd.html

Opinion:
There is a very minimal, almost nil chance of the O’s choosing this option. The O’s will continue to have Reimold in LF, Scott at DH, Pie on the bench or gone, with Wigginton at 3rd.

Fact:
Miguel Tejada will be a Free Agent this coming off-season.

Opinion:
Tejada got the inaccurate reputation of being a horrible defensive player for the O’s, when he attempted to play SS with one leg. He has a great arm, and makes the routine play. He is not a statue, but has limited range. At age 35 it is probably even less than we remember. If he put up an OPS of .750 in 2010, that would be an upgrade over Izutris or Andino. Izturis has had 3,300 Major League at-bats, with a career on-base% under .300. He is a .620 career OPS player. The difference in his glove, is not worth that .130 point drop in OPS. If you had Tejada for one year, with Izturis or Andino on the bench as a defensive-replacement, that seems like win-win to me. Tejada bats 6th or 7th for you in 2010 as the O’s continue to look for a long-term answer.

Fact:
The Orioles head to NY, and Boston after their series with the White-Sox.

Opinion:
Chris Tillman will make his Major League Debut at home against Kansas City in the July 27th – 30th four-game series.

Fact:
Between AA Bowie, and AAA Norfolk, Troy Patton has pitched 89.2 innings in 2009.

Opinion:
Patton should be shut-down for the year after another 20-25 innings. He has been roughed up a bit in Norfolk, but I do not believe that matters all that much. The goal for Patton in 2009 was to regularly take the ball every 5th day. He has done that with his 16 starts. Him being consistently excellent at Bowie was a bonus, and bodes well for what he will be able to provide in 2010. After not pitching at all in 2008, I think you would want to limit the total innings he pitches in 2009.

Fact:
Terp Soph forward Jin-Soo Kim has changed his name to Jin-Soo Choi.

Opinion:
Choi’s Freshman season at College Park, should have been his Senior season in HS. He had started to appear on a couple of Top 100 lists as part of the 2009 class. He was able to come to MD, and begin to acclimate himself to College. Even though Choi did not play in any of the Terps last 7 games, I believe he can help MD in 2009-10. Bowie, Hayes, Vasquez, and Tucker are going to dominate minutes in the back-court, but there are minutes available at the 3 behind Mosley, especially if Gregory has to spend time in the front-court helping the bigs. I expect Choi to be a bit bigger, and stronger this year, and start to resemble the former Duke Blue Devil Mike Dunleavy, Jr. more and more. Choi needs to show an improved 3pt shot this year.

Fact:

ESPN’s Heather Dinich (formerly of the Baltimore Sun) ranked the Terps as having the 7th best RB unit in the ACC.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/acc/0-6-311/Ranking-the-ACC-units–Running-backs.html

Opinion:

It will be settled on the field, but that seems very-low. Scott is not the best RB in the conference, but he is returning from a 1st-team All-ACC season. Meggett, and Green give great depth. Frankly, the Terps have 3 more RB’s that will not get much (any) time in 2009 that would contribute if opportunity was presented.

Mr. Phil Steele recently told me that he ranked MD’s RB unit 5th in the ACC:

“Right now I have Maryland my #5 set of RB’s in the ACC and they could easily move up in those rankings as the talent is there.“

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/07/few-questions-with-mr-phil-steele.html

Mr. Todd Helmick ranked MD’s RB unit 2nd in the ACC:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/04/terp-football-q-with-todd-helmick-of.html

The post Fact & Opinion 6 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 5

Chris Stoner — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:10:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact:
The last Oriole to win the Rookie of the Year, was Gregg Olson in 1989.

Opinion:
In Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, and Matt Wieters, the O’s have 3 players that will compete for the award in 2009.

Fact:
Koji Uehara is out of action for at least the next two months.
In 12 starts, Uehara is 2-4, with a 4.05 era. 66.2 innings pitched, 71 hits, 12 walks, 48 k’s. Uehara held hitters to a .742 OPS against.

Opinion:
I believe Uehara has made his last start for the O’s. I hope he can return in September, and get innings out of the bullpen.
This was a successful signing for the organization. It accomplished the goal of introducing the Oriole name to Asia, and bought some additional development time in the Minors for the O’s prospects.

Fact:
Brad Bergesen has 7 consecutive starts of at-least 6 innings of work. He has Grounder to Fly-ball ratio of 1.17, and is holding hitters to a .672 OPS against.
Overall, he has pitched 91.2 innings, and allowed 87 hits, 19 walks, and 46 k’s.

Opinion:
He has made 14 starts at this point in the Majors, so there are plenty of scouting-reports on him. Instead of tailing-off and looking more like a long-relief option, he appears to be getting stronger. He works quick, uses his defense, and does not hurt himself with walks. If he can continue to allow less than a hit per IP, and get grounders at his current-rate; he can succeed despite his limited K-rate.
At a minimum, he is looking like a good back of the rotation option.

Fact:
In 2009, Chris Ray has pitched 20.1 innings, and has allowed 34 hits, 11 walks, 4 homers, with 23 k’s. His era is 9.74.

Opinion:
I believe in Ray’s arm and believe that 20 innings is just 20 innings. It should not be a surprise to anyone if Ray goes on a run the next 20 innings and is very productive. That said, while I believe in Ray’s arm, I am not sure I believe he has the mental-makeup to be a consistently effective closer.
Addressing the closer position is imperative for this team in the near-term (heading into 2010). Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, and has overall been strong again in 2009. 17 saves in 20 opportunities, 31 k’s in 32.1 innings, with only 25 hits allowed. Sherrill can close for a lot of teams in baseball, but I still think the O’s need a more intimidating presence to be able to compete annually in the AL East. By mid-2010 the best internal option might be David Hernandez.

Fact:
Lance Stephenson announced this week that he is heading to Cincinnati for college. University of MD Head Coach Gary Williams announced on local-radio that he had not been recruiting Stephenson (Williams did not use Stephenson’s name) for 2 months, despite Stephenson and his father stating in early-June that they had been in recent and constant contact.

Opinion:
I am in the tank for Gary Williams, who I believe belongs in the Hall-of-Fame, but I think MD handled this wrong. MD only loses Neal, and with the additions of Williams and Padgett have addressed their most glaring need; the Terps are going to be good. However, Stephenson’s athleticism from the 2 or 3, could prove to have been the difference between a Sweet 16 team, and a Final Four team. After a long-recruitment, MD clearly led for Stephenson, before Vasquez returned and the Terps bailed-out.

Fact:
In my interview with the Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy, Mr.DeCourcy stated that Gary Williams might be the best pure coach in College Basketball.

Opinion:
Gary can greatly add to his already impressive legacy, if the 2009-10 team meets their ceiling and MD adds to the 2010 recruiting class of Stoglin, and Ross.

Fact:
Coach Friedgen stated he might want to stay on as MD’s Head-coach for up to 5 more years if the team performs.

Opinion:
This will have to be clarified for recruits. All recruits will know that if Coach Friedgen is not there, that Coach Franklin will be; but it is still difficult to recruit players when there is an air of uncertainty.

Fact:
Vince Carter was traded to Orlando, Shaq was traded to Cleveland, Richard Jefferson was traded to San Antonio, the Wizards obtained Foye and Miller …. Hedo Turkoglu seems likely to leave the Magic, Gordon left the Bulls, and Ariza might leave LA.

Opinion:
I have had only passing interest in the NBA for years, but it feels as if 2009-10 should have a number of story-lines worth-watching. I think San Antonio has quietly gotten stronger with Jefferson, and their 2009 draft-picks Blair, and (Baltimore native) Jack McClinton.
I really like Portland’s talent, but am not sure their youth is ready to take the next step. Beyond a return to health for Agent 0 (Gilbert Arenas) the Wizards need one more big to join their front-line. If they can afford him under the salary-cap, I think former Terp Chris Wilcox would be a good addition.

Fact:
66,000 plus tickets have been sold for the Chelsea vs AC Milan game in Baltimore July 24th. The Baltimore Blast’s average attendance this past year was just over 7,500 a game.

Opinion:
There is obviously a soccer-loving audience here in Baltimore.
Could the City decide to pursue a Major League Soccer team? Perhaps Ed Hale, who was unable to have the arena built in Canton as he wanted…. could lead the initiative to build a dual soccer/lax stadium in his Canton complex?
Partnering with the local lacrosse community would be a great start.Check out this link to the new Soccer only stadium that is being built in New York.http://www.redbullarena.us/

Fact:
Mr. Jay Brodie, President of the Baltimore Development Corporation (BDC) said in December 2008 that a decision to select one of the four development proposals was expected in mid-2009.

Opinion:
I understand what the economy has done to commercial construction, but we have to move-forward as a City and see this product through to completion.
There is nothing more important going on in Baltimore than this project.
A new Arena, will bring in a more regular level of National level concerts… concerts that currently go to Washington, and skip Baltimore.A new Arena, will allow Baltimore to compete for NCAA Tournament games, along with conference tournaments (ACC, Big East, CAA, MEAC)…A new Arena, combined with the Hilton Convention Hotel, will allow the City to compete for the largest Conventions…. Which bring-in huge amounts of spending money to the City.
A new Arena, on the existing site, will help the Hippodrome, and the rest of the Westside development that is going on with the University of Maryland’s bio-tech park.
You would also expect a new Arena would allow the City to obtain an Arena football team… have a better home for the Blast…. And with 18,500 seats, and the corresponding skyboxes… the City could eventually be a viable home for an existing NBA/NHL team that wants to move… really, that would depend on the Corporate community of Baltimore, and how willing/able they were to fill the skyboxes.

Fact:
There are numerous media outlets for Baltimore Sports fans.

Opinion:
As a Baltimore Sports fan, you currently have sports-radio full-time on 4 stations: 1570, 1370, 105.7, and 1300. You also have Peter Schmuck and WBAL 1090 at-night.

MASN, and Comcast Sportsnet have emerged and are prominent, with MASN being the leading local-site in the on-line Alexa.com rankings.

Orioles Hangout has 8,100 members and an Alexa rating that competes with MASN and WNST. Ravens 24×7 has 1,800 members and Ravens Insider (Scout) has thousands more.

Terp sites such as the Terrapin Times (Rivals), InsideMDSports (ESPN), and the Turtle Sports Report (Scout) also each have large audiences.

Despite the pressures existing from their corporate parents with the Tribune company, The Baltimore Sun has greatly improved their on-line coverage.

Blogs such as Baltimore Sports and Life and countless others have sprung-up and added to the noise.

As a fan, I like that there are multiple voices available. The constant discussion from a variety of sources, seems to avoid ‘group-think’ and leads to more analytical opinions.
However, I believe a saturation point is coming, where consolidation might occur out of necessity.

The post Fact & Opinion 5 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact and Opinion 4

Chris Stoner — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 18:48:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact:
The Baltimore Orioles have fallen to 10 games under 500 at 25-35.

Opinion:
The current 25 man roster is the most talented team the O’s have had since 1997. There are 102 games left in the 2009 season, including 46 games against the American League East. Baltimore will finish with 73-76 wins….

Fact:
Matt Wieters has started his Oriole career 8 for 35 – a .229 average. He has yet to homer, or have an rbi.

Opinion:
I’m sticking with my previously stated opinion that Wieters ends 2009 with the following numbers:
300 batting avg, 15 homers, 57 rbi, 850 OPS, 53 walks, 65 k’s, 19 doubles, 100 games, 395 at-bats.

Fact:
Nolan Reimold has an .867 OPS, with 7 homers in his first 85 Major League at-bats.

Opinion:
Reimold can go out of any park at any-time. The most impressive recent at-bat for him, was his line-drive to right Tuesday night to knock in a run.

Fact:
David Hernandez was sent back to AAA Norfolk yesterday, as the O’s activated Uehara.

Opinion:
If the O’s were looking to convert Hernandez into a reliever in the near-term, he would have stayed with the Orioles. The O’s sending Hernandez back to AAA is a sign they want to continue to look at him as a starter. I think you can now pencil Hernandez into the Opening Day 2010 rotation, and believe he will have the first two months of 2010 to make his case a starter.

Fact:
Troy Patton and Jake Arrieta were promoted to AAA Norfolk.

Opinion:
You can argue that Norfolk now has a more attractive rotation vs Baltimore. Tillman, Patton, Arrieta, Hernandez vs Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, Bergesen, Berken.

Fact:
Since being sent to Norfolk, Chris Ray is 0-1, with a 2.35 era and 1 save. In 7.2 innings, he has allowed 4 hits, 4 bb’s, and 9 k’s.

Opinion:
Sherrill can close in the Major Leagues, but once recalled, Ray should get another opportunity. I believe Sherrill is better suited as a lefty-specialist or set-up… and if Sherrill is in that roll, there is no need to carry Hendrickson. Sherrill teams with Castillo to give the pen two lefty relievers, and from the right-side you have Ray, Johnson, Albers, Baez, and Bass.

Fact:
MLB Network has reported the O’s are considering moving Guthrie, and would for the right price.

Opinion: Guthrie could help a lot of teams, as a solid 3, or maybe even a 2. Cheap contract under organizational control for several more years, will be attractive to plenty of teams – even with Guthrie’s recent inconsistency. Beyond Guthrie, contenders will also have interest in Baez, Sherrill, Huff, and Scott. I think the O’s listen to offers on each, and quite possibly move Baez and Sherrill. I think it is unlikely that Huff, Scott, and Guthrie are traded.

Fact:
WNST 1570 Producer Glenn Clark recently named Tampa Rays SS Jason Bartlett as one of the best 8 hitters in baseball
.
Opinion:
Before heading to the DL May 26th with a sprained ankle, Bartlett was having an outstanding season: 373 batting avg, 7 homers, 30 rbi, 14 steals, and a 1.014 OPS.
Bartlett turns 30 in October… in 1,694 Major League at-bats, he has a lifetime OPS of .729. He is no where close to being one of the best 8 hitters in baseball, he is/was just having a great-year. The truth is there are numerous players in the Tampa lineup alone of far higher quality. There is not a GM in the game that would take Bartlett over Longoria, Crawford, Upton, or Pena. Frankly, if Iwamura was healthy, you could argue Tampa has at-least 8 bats better than Bartlett. (Burrell, Zobrist)

Fact:
The deadline to withdrawal from the NBA Draft is June 15th.

Opinion:
I have said for months that I believe Vasquez will be back in College Park for his Senior season. If he was set on becoming a professional regardless (ie Europe), he would have hired an agent immediately. He did not, and he stayed in-school. You only do that if the intent is NBA or nothing. I am sure he would love to leave now, but it has never made sense to come-out now when he is not likely to obtain a guaranteed 1st-round contract. My guess on the reason he is still visiting teams, is that he continues to seek-feedback on what will be necessary for him to improve on…. And also remains hopeful that 1 team will tell him he is their guy. I will be very surprised if by Sunday night it has not been announced he is returning.

Fact:
Adam Zagoria of Zagsblog.com reported this week that Florida was out of the running for Stephenson, that MD might be the leader, and again confirmed with Stephenson that Europe is not an option being considered. Zagoria also again confirmed with Stephenson that he wants the court case that resumes June 29th, behind him before committing to college.

Opinion:
I really think this has been less of circus than it has been made out to be. He wanted to go to Kansas, that was his preferred choice. When Henry left Memphis for Kansas, that left Stephenson having to reevaluate his options. He eliminated St Johns, but has said repeatedly that MD was an option. Not shocking considering his visit to CP, the familiarity with Padgett, the relative proximity to NY, and the fact that MD has stayed after him. With FL now being a non-option… Arizona unlikely (which he still has not visited), and Memphis being up in the air…. The odds say he winds up being a Terp.

1 Vasquez, Bowie
2 Mosley, Hayes
3 Stephenson, Tucker, Kim
4 Milbourne, Gregory, Padgett
5 Williams, Goins, Burney

Final 4 Caliber.

Fact:
2010 recruits Mychal Parker, and Baltimore’s Roscoe Smith are expected to be in College Park this weekend for Maryland’s Elite Basketball Camp.

Opinion:
Both are tremendous talents that would greatly add to the current verbals of Stoglin, and Ross. Parker seems more likely of the two to commit, as Smith has been seen as unlikely for months.

Fact:
College Football News says 6 wins should be the absolute minimum for MD, and 8 is within reach if everything goes right.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/859850.html

Opinion:
Everything does not have to go right for MD to win 8 games.
In out of conference play, MD figures to lose at California, and beat James Madison, Middle Tennessee, and Rutgers at home.
In conference play, I expect MD to beat Clemson, BC, UVA at home… and Wake, and Duke on the road. I expect the Terps will lose @ NCST, @ FSU, and against VaTech at home.
That will have MD at 8-4 overall, and 5-3 in conference play.
If everything goes right, ie the offensive line is semi-productive, the defensive line gets more of a consistent pass rush, and Turner elevates his game; 9 and even 10 wins are possible.

Fact:
New York Jets’ Head Coach Rex Ryan has received National attention for a number of recent comments.

Opinion:
If the Jets win games, the NY Media and the fan-base will make Ryan a King; if they are mediocre, the media is going to eat him alive for his off the cuff comments.
With the constant 24 hour news cycle, every coach in every city faces scrutiny, but the fishbowl is even more intense in New York. My guess on part of the reason that Ryan did not get the Head Coaching position in Baltimore, is that Ravens Owner Steve Biscotti deemed Ryan a liability behind the microphone. I expect that will continue to be exposed in New York.
Ryan was a good Defensive Coordinator, that had a scheme that allowed for a lot of offensive confusion, and un-blocked hits. Ryan deserves credit for that. I personally believe he was vastly over-rated though.
He was named the Ravens Defensive Coordinator prior to the 2005 season. During the 2005-8 seasons, his defense included players like Hall of Famers Lewis and Reed…. All-Pro talent like Cmac, Suggs, Ngata (know he has not yet been named as such), and Pryce… solid players such as Scott, Gregg, Johnson and Rolle.
Regularly finishing in the Top 5 in defense is an accomplishment, but also expected with that assortment of talent.

Fact:
Former Jacksonville WR Matt Jones had 65 receptions for 771 yards in 2008, and was suspended for the last 3 games for violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. On March 9th, 2009 Jones was arrested again after a drug test revealed he had alcohol in his system, which violated his probation. On March 14th, 2009 he was released by the Jaguars.

Opinion:
He is 6’6 220 lbs, and could bring another dimension to the Ravens receiving core. Jones obviously has his troubles, but that is part of the reason why he could be attractive. Because of the drugs, nobody is going to offer significant dollars or years to Jones. If you could sign him for one year, and get him trying to improve his reputation; you could stand to get a lot of production for minimal investment.

The post Fact and Opinion 4 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact & Opinion 3

Chris Stoner — Fri, 15 May 2009 21:42:00 +0000

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact:
Derrick Mason is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, and mightmiss training-camp.

Opinion:
Mason can miss all of training-camp, and I have full confidence he willbe ready for Week 1… but I find it irritating, that the Ravens knew that Mason went through off-season surgery, and were not active as anorganization to further address the WR core. D. Williams has a ton of physical talent… he has also played a totalof 16 games the past two years… you can not rely on him. I do not believe a Ravens WR other than Mason or Clayton caught a ball after Week 10… Heap, and LJ Smith are going to have to produce over the middle for this team to take the next step with their passing offense.

Fact:
Mason is ‘very confident’, an extension will be signed prior to thestart of the regular season.

Opinion:
Mason earned a tremendous amount of respect in this City last year forhis ability, and willingness to play with pain… but the man is 35years-old… signing him to an extension can not be a priority overfirst extending Suggs, Ngata, Gaither, and Clayton.

Fact:
At the end of mini-camp, Coach John Harbaugh stated the following about LB Tavares Gooden, “Tavares looked fast. To me, he looked like alinebacker. He was really patient on runaways, stayed square, played downhill, stayed on the backside of the play. It wasn’t just running around like crazy. He played fast as a LB, which is good to see.”

Source:http://www.baltimoreravens.com/News/Articles/2009/05/Questions_Still_Unanswered.aspx

Opinion:
Gooden is going to play out of position at times, but he has fresh legsand is going bring some athleticism back to the Ravens defense.

Fact:
Lorenzo Neal signed with the Oakland Raiders, and the Ravens announcedthat McClain would return to a more traditional FB role.

Opinion:
The Ravens have talented RB’s with McGahee, Rice, and Peerman… but McClain was the one that led the Ravens in rushing yards, and the one that allowed the Ravens to win the battle of the clock.Without Neal, and with the idea that the Ravens will have Heap spending less time on the offensive-line blocking… the Ravens will have a different look offensively this year.

I think you see less ‘jumbo’ packages, and more traditional single backsets.

Fact:
The Houston Rockets beat the LA Lakers last night to force a Game 7 inthe Western Conference Semi-Finals.

Opinion:
The Rockets forcing Game 7 against LA, without Yao Ming or McGrady, says more about LA than it does about Houston. Scola, Battier, and Artest are all good players… but they have no-business forcing a Game 7, if LA was in-fact a truly elite team.

I expect LA to win Game 7, and lose in 6 games to Denver.

Fact:
The Washington Capitals lost Game 7 of their series vs Pittsburgh, after falling behind 5-0 at home. Nestor Aparicio stated yesterday on WNST that over 55,000 people from Baltimore watched the game.

Opinion:
Those television ratings were increased in Baltimore by the number of TV’s Donna’s Tavern in Dundalk had dedicated to the game during the WNST KOBST Semi-Finals. Myself, I was ducking to the back to watch the O’s game.

Fact:
Each of the four proposals for a new Baltimore Arena, calls for a 18,500 seat venue to be built. A decision on the winning bid is expected bymid-2009.

Here is a link to my Round 1 audition where I make a case for the winning bid to be the Struever Bros. Eccles & Rouse proposal: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWSiTuW7h9g

Opinion:
If you were the Washington Capitals, and you knew that a new Arena wasgoing to be built in Baltimore… complete with the requisite amount of luxury-suites necessary to potentially lure an existing team…. The logical response would be for the Capitals to try and build ties in Baltimore, and claim the area as their own.

Fact:
Nolan Reimold has been promoted to the Majors, and Rich Hill is expectedto start tomorrow.

Opinion:
The Orioles are becoming more watchable by the day. I can not wait forearly-to-mid June when Wieters has become the everyday catcher, and the O’s have replaced Eaton with either Hernandez, or Patton.

Fact:
Izturis batted 2nd for the Orioles last night, and was 2 for 5 with a triple and 3rbi.

Opinion:
It was a strong game for Izturis, but he should never be batting 2nd. In 3,268 Major League at-bats, Izturis has a .299 career on-base %.

Fact:
DeShawn Painter has verballed to NCST over the University of Maryland.

Opinion:
Painter would have been a good addition to the program… an active big that was ranked Top 25 Nationally a year ago, that has fallen out of thecurrent 100 rankings now. Just shows you how in-flux the rankings canbe.Losing him though is not a death-blow…

Fact:
The Terps have signed PG T. Stoglin, and SG T. Ross for the 2010 class.With Painter not signing for 2009, Stephenson not expected to sign for 2009, and the recent departure of Steve Goins… MD has 3 scholarships available for 2010.

New names will emerge… but MD is currently involved with 2010 players such as Mychal Parker, JD Weatherspoon, Hippolyte Tsfack, Antonio Barton, Will Barton, Will Regan, CJ Leslie, Terrence Jones, and Victor Oladipo.

Opinion:
To me, the ideal situation would be one of W. Barton, Parker,Weatherspoon for the 3… Leslie or Jones for the 4…. And either Tsfack or Regan for the 5….The fact that Stoglin is actively recruiting Weatherspoon, and that Ross is actively recruiting Jones can only help.

Fact:
The Preakness is tomorrow.

Opinion:
I am Baltimore born and raised, and have never been to the Preakness….Just have never had interest in going. My Wife grew-up in Hagerstown owning horses, and she has no interest in going. Despite not have interest in the race, or Horse Racing in general, I can get behind the idea of protecting the industry.

There are a lot of MD jobs tied to the equine community… I guess my general feeling is that Horse Racing is gambling… and if it would help the Horse Racing community if slots were allowed at the tracks, then go ahead and do it.

Though, I think in the end that is a rather limited point of view. You have to make the entire venue a destination of choice… and if the main-event does not draw people there, the secondary reasons (slots) can only help so much.

The post Fact & Opinion 3 appeared first on Baltimore Sports and Life.

Fact and Opinion 2

Chris Stoner — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 23:09:00 +0000

Former Baltimore Sun Columnist John Eisenberg used to have a great semi-regular Column, he titled Fact/Opinion… with apologies to him, here would be my submission.

Fact:
Braxton Dupree has left the University of Maryland.

Opinion:
I am some-what surprised by this. During the year, it appeared likely for this to occur. However, recent reports out of College Park were that Dupree was telling people he wanted to stay, and playing well in pick-up. There are even reports that Dupree got the best of Jordan Williams, and James Padgett before the Charm City Classic. During his two years at MD, Dupree rarely resembled the player that as a Top 65 National recruit his Senior year at Calvert Hall. If Dave Neal can have the Senior year he had, I believe it is possible that Dupree could have contributed his Junior and Senior years. Dupree could be a big addition for any of the local schools.
For MD, this opens up a 3rd scholarship for the 2009 class, even if/when Vasquez returns.

Fact:
Per Zagsblog, Xavier Henry (and his brother CJ) will announce tomorrow their intention to verbal to Kansas.

http://www.zagsblog.com/2009/04/22/source-henrys-to-kansas/

Opinion:
I believe Kansas was the front-runner for Lance Stephenson. With X.Henry signed, Stephenson is extremely unlikely to become a Jayhawk. Stephenson wants to be a 1 and done player, and head to the NBA… a proposition that would be difficult with him sharing the ball with Henry.

Expect a decision from Stephenson shortly.

Fact:
It was originally announced by Comcast Sportsnet today, that they would be televising a press-conference for Vasquez tomorrow night.
That was later retracted.
Vasquez averaged 17.5 ppg, 5 asst, 5.4 boards, 2.8 turnovers, 1.4 steals, 86.7% from the FT line, 40.5% from the floor, and 32.7% from 3.
Most NBA Mock Drafts have him as a 2nd round pick.

Opinion:
He plays hard, and scouts will love his love for the game. Even though he is not the strongest, he is excellent in the lane, and very solid posting-up. (Though you have to wonder if he has the strength to post-up in the pros)
If he was projected as a sure-fire 1st round pick, that would have a guaranteed 3 year contract – you would tell him to leave.
I expect that Vasquez makes a statement in the next couple of days, it will be either that he is entering the draft without an agent, or that based on the feed-back received, he is returning to MD for his Senior season.
If he goes to the NBA Pre-Draft camps, it is going to take a major effort for him to raise his draft-stock.
If he was willing to go to Europe, he would have already stated he was definitively leaving.
With Vasquez likely to return, MD should have Sweet 16 aspirations for the 2009-10 season.
The Terps have lost Neal, and Dupree… and added Jordan Williams, and James Padgett.

2009-10
1 Bowie, Hayes
2 Vasquez, Tucker
3 Mosley, Kim
4 Milbourne, Padgett, Gregory, Burney
5 Williams, Goins
If Lance Stephenson wants to join the Terps… expectations can be raised even higher…
It should be noted that it is also possible that Burney will take a medical and leave the program after breaking both feet during his time at MD.

Fact:
WNST Owner Nestor Aparicio had a pre-draft discussion with former Ravens Head Coach Brian Billick, and Ravens Director of Player Personnel Eric DeCosta Monday, April 13th.

During that discussion, Mr. DeCosta stated the following:

“We have looked back at the past 10 drafts, at teams selecting in our general range… graded the selections of all picks… and wideouts have the highest percentages of failures.”

Opinion:
Ok… so what does that mean? As a franchise, the Ravens have consistently taken who they have graded as the best available talent on their board.Does that mean that if the Ravens hold on to their pick at 26th… and one of those receivers (also Percy Harvin) are available… that they will move away from their board, and look to positions that have higher-rates of success?

DeCosta made the additional point that he believes you can obtain receivers at later points in the draft that can produce. Ok, fair enough point… certainly are numerous examples of that. I have not done the research on this, so I put this out there as a legitimate question… If wideouts selected in the mid 20’s overall in the 1st round have the highest degree of failure … would not receivers selected after those players have an even greater chance at ‘failure’? I think the answer is obviously yes… the retort would be that the risk is lower, with lower picks…

DeCosta was also in agreement with Billick that wideouts can take time to develop…. ok, again a fair enough point. If that is the case, that should be even more incentive to take a WR in 2009… when you consider Mason’s existing age, and contract status.

DeCosta said he used to be consumed with his draft-board… and that is no longer the case… that he wants ‘Raven’ players… I think the team has always targeted ‘Raven’ players… but the idea that they are working away from their board is interesting.

Lastly, it was clear that DeCosta believes Heyward-Bey will be a mid-1st round pick due to his athleticism… and that DeCosta questions his hands… it was clear that the team would love a chance to select Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew…. and that the team feels you have to address CB in the 1st round.After listening to that interview, I think Nestor was clearly right with what he has heard from the organization. They feel they can never have enough CB’s… even with Foxworth, Washington, Rolle, Carr, and Walker… with that in-mind, I think the Ravens will probably take the size and speed combination of Vontae Davis if he is available.If the Ravens have both Davis and Pettigrew available to them… it would be interesting to see who wins out.

Fact:
In 2007 with the Cubs, Rich Hill was 11-8, with a 3.92 ERA, in 195 innings, allowing 170 hits, with 183 k’s, 63 walks, and a .695 OPS against.

He is scheduled to pitch 60-65 pitches in a rehab outing at Frederick on Friday.

Opinion:
This is outstanding news…once he makes that outing, the Orioles can leave Hill in the Minors for a maximum of 30 days. I believe a more likely out-come would have Hill joining the Orioles around Saturday, May 9th.

Fact:
Brad Bergesen made his Major League debut for the Orioles last night.

Over 5.2 innings, Bergesen allowed 4 hits, 1 er, 2 walks, and had 4 k’s.

Opinion:
While his fast-ball consistently sat at 89, I was more impressed with his stuff than I expected to be. He had good movement on fastball, and slider… and hit as high as 94 on the OPACY gun.
Besides working quick, and showing poise; the most enjoyable aspect of Bergesen’s start was the knowledge that there are at-least 3 pitchers in the system held in higher-regard in Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta… and 2 other pitchers in Hernandez, and Patton that are valued just as high.

Fact:
Matt Wieters was again out of the lineup for the Norfolk Tides today.

Opinion:
If Wieters can get back into the lineup tomorrow, and prove his health over 1 or 2 more games at Norfolk… you could see Wieters make his Major League debut this weekend.
If Wieters suffers any set-backs, and has to be put on the DL… the O’s could just decide to keep him in the Minors through mid-June to attempt to avoid him obtaining Super 2 status.

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