Fact & Opinion 10 Orioles Quick-hits

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun Columnist (and current CSNBaltimore.com contributor) John Eisenberg, here is another submission of my version of ‘Fact & Opinion.’

Fact: While not officially on the table, new Arizona Diamondbacks General Manager Kevin Towers has stated he is willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton.

Opinion: The 23 year-old Upton is one of the most talented players in the game. The former 1st overall pick of the draft already has 1,500 Major League at-bats, and has compiled a respectable .824 OPS for his career. Prior to last-year Upton signed a $51.25M dollar extension through the 2015 season. If Upton is moved, some team will acquire a player heading towards the prime of his career that has a very reasonable contract.

Of course Towers is aware of this, so any team that would obtain Upton would be giving-up a substantial price. There is talk that the Blue Jays have told Towers he can have any 5 prospects existing within their system. The equivalent of what that would take from the Orioles would be crippling, regardless of the talents of Upton.  I would love to see him Upton in an Oriole uniform, but it does not make sense for this team now.

Fact: Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reported Thursday that the O’s have had discussions with Tampa about swapping David Hernandez for SS Jason Bartlett, and have also spoken with Minnesota about SS JJ Hardy.

Opinion: I think I have been consistent and clear about how I want the O’s to upgrade at SS, and both Bartlett and Hardy represent improvement over Izturis. That said, I am not trading Hernandez for Bartlett. Everyone understands it takes talent to get talent. What is more important to understand though, is that for the O’s to get to a position where they can annually contend with New York and Boston, they are going to need a roster comprised with as many young / cheap / productive players as possible.  Hernandez is young, cheap, and already productive. He is also under team control for years, and still has further un-tapped potential. Showalter was hired the first week of August, and Hernandez missed all of that month. Hernandez did return for September (and was productive 12 k’s in 9.2 innings) but I did not think he was quite as good as he had been earlier in the year. Due to that, I could see Showalter believing Hernandez was easily expendable. I think having a guy capable of multiple innings, with the stuff to eventually close is a commodity you do not want to lose.

Out of the two SS’s, I would prefer Hardy. I would easily give up either Berken, or Johnson for either one.

Fact: MLB TradeRumors.com reported yesterday that the O’s would bid on posted Japanese SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Baltimore Sun, and MASN’s Roch Kubatko responded to that report and stated it was inaccurate. The O’s remained undecided of whether to make a bid, and were leaning towards not.

Opinion: If Hiroyuki Nakajima had been posted, I would have wanted the O’s to bid on him. In comparison there are more questions with how Nishioka’s game would translate to MLB. There is plenty to like about Nishioka. He is a switch-hitter, with speed, and described as a strong athlete. Supposedly there were questions about his maturity earlier in his career, but those around him have stated the 26 year-old grew-up considerably this season. The 5x Japanese All-Star, and 3x Gold Glove led the Nippon Professional Baseball with a .346 average this year. His former Manager Bobby Valentine believes he can stay at SS in the Majors. The fact that well-run organizations like Boston, and Minnesota are interested only increases my belief the O’s should be involved here. It is a bit of a roll of the dice, but the overall contract (even when factoring in the likely posting-fee) would be very manageable. The upside for Nishioka is higher than the other options existing to the O’s.

Fact: The Orioles are continuing negotiations with Koji Uehara.

Opinion: Even with his injury issues, I want the O’s to offer him a 2 year deal. It would be hard for Uehara to turn that down. If Uehara declined, you offer arbitration and let him leave for the additional draft-pick you would receive as compensation.

Fact: WTSB 10 News in Tampa reported yesterday that Carlos Pena’s college friend (and Boston Globe writer) Nick Cafardo believes Pena could return to Tampa on a 1 year deal.

Opinion: That makes sense to me. You hear the O’s rumored with Pena often, and can probably obtain him if they are willing to give two years guaranteed for his services. That would be difficult for the O’s to agree to though. While he is a former Gold Glove, the advanced metrics show a decline over the past 3 years. The .196 batting average in 2010 does not completely scare me off, nor does his strikeouts (166, 163, 158 the last 3 years) – but both have to be acknowledged. It is also worth noting his average has declined 3 straight seasons. Still, he probably is still respectable at 1st, will take a walk, and does have power. (Homer totals of 46, 31, 39, 28 the last 4 years). I think I would consider 1 year with a team-option that vests with performance.

Fact: Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman stated on Twitter this week that the O’s are pursuing Paul Konerko.

Opinion: The O’s attempted to obtain Konerko years ago when Flanagan and Beattie were in charge, and Konerko actually came and visited Baltimore. If I remember correctly, he was gracious in his comments at the time. Konerko had a monster 2010 at age 35.  He finished with a .977 OPS (.854 for his career, including .783 in ’08, and .842 in .’09) that included a .312 batting average, 39 homers, and 111 rbi. His on-base % was .393 (.356 for his career). His career-rates are very solid, and if you pursue him that is what you should be paying for. If you bid on him expecting his 2010 production, you are in for disappointment. Konerko would greatly improve the O’s lineup, there is no doubt about that. It is fairly unrealistic to have a team that is fully comprised of guys in their prime. Giving Konerko a 3 year deal (taking him to age 38) is a risk, but might be worthwhile for Baltimore. The biggest negative I see is that Konerko is a Type A Free Agent.

Fact: ESPN Desportes reported the Oakland Athletics offered Adrian Beltre 5 years and $64 Million.

Opinion: I would have no problem going to 5 years and $70-$75 Million if that would it a deal done. Preferably, I’d offer 4 years and the same $64M that Oakland offered. The money is less of an issue than the years.