2018 Baltimore Orioles: Over / Unders
The Baltimore Orioles begin their 2018 season in a matter of hours, and we start to transition from theory to reality. From projection to production.
Are the O’s a contender or a pretender? Are they more like the 2012-16 Orioles that reached the post-season three times in five years, or the 2017 Orioles that finished in last-place?
The O’s get to prove what they are over the next 162 games.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
BSL’s O’s and MLB Analysts took a stab at projecting the season here. The average prediction for the O’s from our six writers was an 80-82 season.
If you buy that the O’s true talent is right around .500; then it’s realistic to believe the O’s could play up and be in Wild Card contention again this year. It’s also realistic to believe the wheels could again come off.
That’s the unknown you enter this year with.
If you were able to play this 2018 season out a 1,000 times, the O’s would probably nearly always win between 72 and 90 games. Always falling somewhere within that 18 game range.
Outside of computer simulations though, you don’t get to play things 1,000 times.
Between the white lines, the O’s get to play out this 2018 season once.
That’s what makes things interesting.
For everything we know about sports, and metrics; there are those percentages on the fringes which surprise.
UMBC beating Virginia (and winning by 20).
Loyola of Chicago being in the Final Four.
Here’s to watching another year of drama and surprise unfold!
2018 Orioles Over / Unders:
I’m setting lines here, you tell me what you’d take.
1) The Orioles starters ERA in 2017 was 5.70. Not surprisingly, that was the worst in MLB, 30th overall. Over / Under on the O’s starters era in 2018 being 4.70 (which would have been good for 18th overall in ’17)?
2) Baltimore had 232 homers in ’17. Over / Under on 230 homers in ’18?
3) Schoop had a .841 OPS in ’17, including a .293 baa, and a .338 opb. Over / Under on Schoop posting a .825 OPS in ’18?
4) Davis had an OPS under .800 for the third time in four years in ’17. Over / Under on Davis posting a .818 OPS (his career average) in ’18?
5) Davis bats in the leadoff spot 40 times. Over / Under?
6) Tillman was a consistently reliable ML starter over 143 starts during 2012-16. He was a disaster over 19 starts in 2017. Over / Under that he makes 15 starts for the O’s in ’18?
7) Tillman’s average FB velocity for his career is 92.3. In ’17 it was 91.2. Over / Under that his average FB velocity is above his ’17 average?
8) The Orioles scored 743 runs last year, placing them 16th overall, and 153 runs behind league leading Houston. Over / Under on the O’s scoring 785 runs?
9) Britton is eligible to come off the DL on May 28th. Over / Under on Britton being in the O’s bullpen by June 8th?
10) During the last four years, Rasmus has played in 104, 137, 107, and 37 games. He’s reached 15 homers 7 times in his career. Over / Under on Rasmus playing 105 games, and reaching 15 homers?
11) Over / Under on Hays playing in 50 games with the Orioles in ’18?
12) Beckham enters 2018 with 52 Major League innings at 3rd. Over / Under on a +3 UZR / 150, +3 DRS, and 15 errors?
13) Bundy and Gausman were the only O’s starters to reach double-figures in Wins last year. Over / Under on three starters reaching double-figures in Wins?
14) Over / Under on Cobb having a better fWAR than Lynn?
15) Over / Under on Machado finishing in the Top 6 of the AL MVP vote?
16) Trumbo had a .849 OPS in ’16, and a .686 OPS in ’17. Over / Under on him matching his career average of .762 in ’18?
17) Mancini had 54 XBH’s in ’17. Over / Under on him having 45 in ’18?
18) Over / Under on Sisco making 90 starts behind the plate?
19) The O’s had a .312 opb in ’17, ranking them 27th overall. Over / Under on a collective .320 opb in ’18 (which would have been good for 18th overall in ’17)?
20) Over / Under on the O’s finishing .500?
Bonus: To steal from my colleague Rob Shields; “What number should we make the O/U on the amount of overreactions (good or bad) about the long term prognosis on the Orioles based off of what we see today?”