2022 MLB Draft: Opening Weekend

It’s mid-February, and like most times of the year I have my mind on sports. Yes, it’s Super Bowl time. The Olympics are going on (this year at least). College basketball is building towards March Madness. And (at least for me) curling is in the middle of it’s best month, with the Scotties and Brier championships happening. But unsurprisingly, my mind has begun to turn to baseball. Not pro ball, but the amateur side of things.

JuCo teams have been playing for a couple of weeks. NCAA D-I teams are flocking to warmer weather tournaments. High School teams are opening up practices and scrimmages. All of this means that Draft season (Which never really ends) has begun in earnest for me.

Thus, this past week I dusted off my R code and updated players in my database, all in preparation for running the initial DRAFT Model scores for the 2022 class. And without fail…there were issues (it’s an annual tradition). But 5 minutes later, I had the scores that I will spend the next 5 months adjusting and updating.

For those who are new here, my DRAFT (Data-Reasoned Amateur Future Talent) Model is an analytical model that takes in biographical, statistical, and external ranking information to predict (1) the probability a player reaches MLB in their career, and (2) their performance should they reach that level. The final output is essentially a player’s expected Runs Above Replacement (RAR), with a top pick usually coming in around the 30-35 RAR range, a back-end 1st-rounder close to 5-10 RAR, and decreasing from there. This model has similarity to models that teams run internally, but naturally does not have access to many private data sources. I have been running this model for 4 years now, since I stopped working for the Tampa Bay Rays.

It’s important to remember that the DRAFT Model is just a tool for decision making, not the decision itself. The model will be right sometimes, other times it’ll be wrong. There are blind spots in the model (I’ll discuss two of them later), and even when I rank players I don’t explicitly follow the model’s output. But as it’s early, let’s look at the DRAFT Model’s Top-10 (Plus one conspicuously missing) players at the earnest start of the 2022 draft season.

1. Termarr Johnson, HS 2B/SS

Baseball America Rank: 2

DRAFT Model: 32.32 RAR

Termarr Johnson is a guy that Orioles fans have heard about a lot recently, and with good reason. He’s the best pure hitter amongst high school players with a double-plus future tool, and pairs that with plus future power. Throw in the fact that he’ll be just 18.1 on draft day and has some chance of playing shortstop, and you have an elite draft prospect.

While the DRAFT Model has few worries on him, I have at least a couple. Don’t misunderstand, I think Johnson has a potentially special bat and he should be a top-3 pick, but my worries are more towards taking him over Druw Jones (More on him later). Really, my worries come down to the likelihood that he winds out at second base, which I peg at higher than the model’s 26%. Additionally, as rankings become better at accounting for player age in their evaluations, age differences for high school players become less useful, but I’ll discuss that later. All told, I’d probably have Johnson ranked #2 in my personal rankings.

2. Jace Jung, Texas Tech 2B/3B

Baseball America Rank: 4

DRAFT Model: 29.18 RAR

Jace Jung is the guy I’ve been watching for the Orioles since last August, especially if they hadn’t gotten the #1 overall pick. The profile was there: college bat, major conference, great power, and not necessarily the top of the class so he has the chance of going somewhat underslot. The #1 pick might make it a little tough, particularly with the two high school stars ahead of him in external rankings, but with a strong season, Jung could claim the #1 spot all to himself.

In 208 PAs last year, Jung slahsed .337/.462/.697 with 21 home runs. He strikes out above expected (0.032 strikeouts above expectation), but not excessively and he walks and slugs above expectation (0.041 and 0.108 respectively). All that from the left side is definitely an attractive option for the Orioles as well. The only downsides particularly is he’s a little limited defensively, both in terms of range and arm. But ultimately that shouldn’t be too much of a concern, and I have Jung at the top of the college bats to start the year.

3. Druw Jones, HS CF

Baseball America Rank: 1

DRAFT Model: 26.51 RAR

Jones versus Johnson will be a debate all throughout the year. Right now, I lean Jones, specifically for two reasons. First, the age thing. Jones will be 18.65 on Draft Day, Johnson 18.1. In this day, when the affects of age are understood and better accounted for in external rankings, is 6 months worth nearly 3 runs of score? I tend to not think so. It’s something I’m working on adjusting in my model, or possibly in different variants of the model.

The second reason is a blind spot of the model: defense. The DRAFT Model doesn’t include any defensive ability projection. Frankly, there isn’t an easy way to go about it with the data I have. So, I just assume average defensive ability across the board. Termarr Johnson projects as a good defensive option at second base. Druw Jones projects as an elite option in centerfield; a true plus defender with a plus arm. He could easily add a half-dozen runs defensively at a premium position.

Beyond that defensive ability, Jones brings elite athleticism and speed. He’s always made contact, even if the swing isn’t as pretty as Johnson’s. The two names will be paired over the next few months, and I’ll likely change my opinion a dozen times, but for now I’ll give Jones a slight edge in my personal rankings.

4. Carson Whisenhunt, ECU LHP

Baseball America Rank: 21

DRAFT Model: 23.56 RAR

This is a classic “performance-over-stuff” score. Whisenhunt put up incredible numbers as East Carolina’s #2 last year, striking out 30.6% of batters and walking 8.5% in 62 innings. He didn’t have a dominant ERA (3.77), but the strikeout numbers speak for themselves.

His clean motion and three solid pitches give him a good chance to start. His fastball tops around 95, his curveball is decent, and his changeup is the best of the college class. He’s exactly the type of pitcher I tend to like; lefty performer with a good changeup. His frame has room to add weight, meaning maybe there’s room for a little more velocity in the fastball. With another good year in Greenville, he could be moving up the boards. Though I suspect I’ll still be higher on him than most.

5. Connor Prielipp, Alabama LHP

Baseball America Rank: 23

DRAFT Model: 21.02 RAR

If Prielipp wasn’t down due to Tommy John surgery there would be no debate on the #1 ranking, beyond the usual questions that pitchers bring. Healthy Prielipp brings a fastball that tops out at 96, a plus slider that gets whiffs over half the time, and a solid enough changeup. Combine the raw stuff with performance and you have a top pick, and oh boy did Prielipp have performance: strikes out 45% of batters, walks 6.5%.

That’s what the model sees. Even in only 28 IP, the performance is dominant enough to be indicative of a special player. What the model doesn’t see is an injured UCL. It’s hard to say if he’ll come back before the draft, and even harder to say what he’ll be. But players can come back from the injury, which makes Prielipp an interesting play in July. I’m guessing he’ll be a fringe top-20 guy for me in my rankings, and likely a late first-rounder for a team willing to take a little risk.

6. Chase DeLauter, JMU OF

Baseball America Rank: 6

DRAFT Model: 20.32 RAR

DeLauter had a big year in 2021. At James Madison, DeLauter showed power (.337 ISO), discipline (19.5% walks and 10.9% strikeouts), and somehow has double-plus sprint times despite being 6’4″-235. But of course small-college questions would remain so DeLauter went to the Cape and continued his domination. With the wood bat he slashed .298/.397/.589 with 9 home runs and more walks than strikeouts.

DeLauter needs to dominate 2022 just like he did in 2021 to keep those questions at bay. At the pro level, he’s probably a corner outfielder, even though he plays center for the Dukes and seems to have enough speed. But even if he moves to the corner, he has enough power and arm to be an effective player, and right now would be a no-doubt top-10 pick.

7. Brock Jones, Stanford OF

Baseball America Rank: 9

DRAFT Model: 19.96 RAR

Jones was ranked as a high schooler in 2019 (478th), but unsurprisingly made it to Stanford’s campus. Besides baseball, Jones played a little football for the Cardinal as a freshman, but focused on baseball during his sophomore year. It paid off with improvements in nearly every area: increased ISO, increase walks, decreased strikeouts, all with plus athleticism.

There is still some swing-and-miss in Jones’ approach, as despite improving he still struck out 22.3% of the time, 7.7% more often than expected. But he still has good bat speed and his 18.6% walk rate implies a good chance to continue improving in that area. All told, with the right improvements and a little luck, Jones could be a top-5 pick come July.

8. Hunter Barco, Florida LHP

Baseball America Rank: 28

DRAFT Model: 16.77 RAR

Early in the year college pitcher scores tend to be a little higher than college hitters. Why? I’m not 100% certain. Likely, it has something to do with (1) many pitchers are initially used in more limited relief roles, allowing for still good stats, (2) thus batters on the whole experience a rougher Freshman year than their pitching counterparts and (3) their performance in their draft year hasn’t washed out the Freshman performance.

All that said, the top 30 DRAFT scores right now have more college pitchers than we’ll wind out with. But Hunter Barco is used to being in this range. He was ranked 32nd in his high school draft year, made it to Gainesville, and has put up solid numbers (12% strikeouts above expected) in two years with the Gator’s rotation. Pair this performance with the SEC conference and you seemingly have a top-tier guy.

Problem is, the stuff again doesn’t seem to quite line up. Fastball sits in the low 90s and tends to be of the run-type rather than moving in the vertical plane. Some teams will have a problem with that movement profile particularly. The secondaries, a slider and changeup, flash plus. Performance is hard to argue with, so if scouts see an uptick in the secondaries they could lay their concerns about the fastball aside.

9. Elijah Green, HS OF

Baseball America Rank: 5

DRAFT Model: 16.23 RAR

Green has been in the draft spotlight for the past year. I was even tweeting about his score potential during the 2021 Draft.

So, we've got one round down, but one note for 2022. As of right now, a rough calculation Elijah Green's DRAFT score would be about 30.5.

— Stephen Loftus (@stephen__loftus) July 12, 2021

So what’s he doing here at 9? Well, he does have some swing-and-miss issues, and struggled a little against quality competition on the showcase circuit last Summer. He’s also “older,” clocking in at 18.6 on Draft Day. I discussed the age issue earlier with Druw Jones, so I won’t rehash it here.

Green brings a lot to the table, everything else aside. He has the best power out of the prep bats, with the potential for double plus. His frame supports that power, coming in a 6’3″-214. And despite his size, he puts up plus-plus times in the sprints (6.5 second 60-yard dash time). He likely slots into a corner outfield spot, which definitely hurts his stock. That said, I would probably put him closer to 5th than 9th in my personal rankings.

10. Kumar Rocker, RHP

Baseball America Rank: 25

DRAFT Model: 15.14 RAR

Well here’s a familiar name. For those who don’t know Rocker’s saga, here’s the short version: Dominated competition over 3 years at Vanderbilt. Finished the year ranked 5th in Baseball America’s rankings prior to the 2021 Draft after beginning the year at #1. Drafted by the Mets 10th overall, they saw something they didn’t like in his physical and now Rocker’s back for another Draft.

The model doesn’t really have much precedent here. Aaron Crow had a similar path, highly drafted after three years in college and then pitching a year in independent ball after he didn’t sign. But the model isn’t really sure how to treat a player like Rocker. For that matter, neither am I generally speaking.

Rocker brings a fastball that can get up to 99, but he struggled maintaining velocity in 2021. His slider is double-plus, his changeup works well enough given the rest of his arsenal. But is he healthy? Who knows. He’ll probably slide down the DRAFT Model rankings as other players accrue stats, but given what he’s shown I’d still probably have him around 20th overall.

22. Brooks Lee, Cal Poly SS

Baseball America Rank: 3

DRAFT Model: 8.95 RAR

So I’ll be honest, when I saw this score I figured something was broken. I dug further and found that it wasn’t actually that broken. Lee does play a premium position in college, but there are some doubts he sticks there. His slash last year was an impressive .344/.385/.629, but it was against the Big West. However, it doesn’t seem to be enough to knock Baseball America’s #3 down to the latter half of the first round. What gives?

Well, the DRAFT Model hates Lee’s walk rate. That’s really it. It doesn’t seem like much, but Lee walks 7.4% of the time. That’s 5.5% lower than expected, which is one of the worst marks amongst players with a score. Does the model overpenalize this? Maybe. But it isn’t a great sign. I’d likely have him coming in around the back half of the top 10, but admit there’s plenty of potential for growth.

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The Draft season will be long, and I have a bunch of plans to update small aspects of the model. This could mean a lot of movement for certain players, especially one’s whose scores are held down by individual specific factors (Like age). Regardless, the fun is beginning, and the countdown to the Orioles at 1-1 is beginning in earnest.