2023 Was Great; That’s Over

Yesterday the Baltimore Orioles released a video sharing the story of the 2023 season.
There’s nothing wrong with that.  It was a great season, and it should be appreciated.
And to state the obvious, the Video Production and Marketing employees who put that together have zero impact on Baseball Operations.
Clearly I’m not suggesting that the Baseball Operations Department isn’t focused on ’24, or that they are resting on their laurels after a 101 win 2023 season.

But I will say to the O’s players, the Front Office, the Coaching staff, the Beat Reporters, and to all of my fellow Oriole fans; last year was last year, and it’s 2024 now.
Those 101 wins don’t carry over.
The O’s went out last year, competed daily, and proved themselves over and over again.
They’ll have to do it all over again this year.
Meaning, if the Orioles still have a bad taste in their mouth from being swept out of the ’23 American League Division Series, the only available mouthwash is performing well enough in the ’24 season to earn another chance at the playoffs next October.
Some of the earned confidence from a 101 season should carry over. That’s a good thing.
But ultimately I think there has to be an organizational mindset from the top down, that everything achieved last year has to be earned again.

Quick Hits: 

1) Does The Regular Season Mean Bupkis?

Famed Baseball writer Joe Posnanski wrote about the Dodgers and Braves after the recent Boston / Atlanta trade involving Chris Sale, stating:

See, the top teams, I think, are all coming around to the same idea: The regular season doesn’t mean bupkis. I’ve got to believe that the vast majority of Atlanta folks—I’m talking fans, players, media and so on—look at the Braves’ 88-win season in 2021 as the ultimate triumph. Sure, they had the worst record of any National League playoff team. But they won the World Series.

And I’m sure those same folks look at their 100-win seasons in 2022 and 2023 as bombs. The Braves convincingly lost their lone playoff series each year to a Phillies team that they stomped over the regular season. The 2023 Braves, over six months, had one of the greatest offenses in the history of baseball. But they averaged one run per game in their three losses to the Phillies. And that defines the whole season.

The Dodgers are facing the same questions. It’s all about October now. We baseball fans will watch the regular season because we love baseball, but it means little more than the NBA regular season or the NHL regular season. And the MLB season is A LOT longer than the NBA and NHL regular seasons.

I can’t predict the future—but would it surprise me if teams started using their aces once a week, 22 starts a year, in order to protect them for October? Of course not. Would it surprise me if teams started resting their star players 25 or 35 or more games a year to keep them fresh for October? Of course not. Would it surprise me if teams played for 92 wins instead of 100 or 105 or 110, because 92 wins is enough to get you in the playoffs and that’s all that matters anymore?

Of course not.

This is where the game has been going for a while now, sure, but it’s there now. I, personally, am not a huge fan of it—I’ve long been more of a regular-season guy than a playoff guy—but as I’ve written before, I just love baseball, so I’ll go wherever the game takes me. And the game is taking you and me into a new era, I think, one where soon enough 16 teams will make the playoffs, and the regular season will be mostly for entertainment purposes, and there won’t be very many important games played between April and September.

In other words: I suspect that the Braves believe that if Chris Sale gives them two good starts in October and those help the team go on to the World Series, he will be worth every penny.

That’s an interesting thought, and I have mixed feelings here.

With regards to the idea that MLB teams are coming to the idea that all that matters is the post-season. Maybe they have.
And I get that to a degree. You are defined by titles. That is what is remembered by the overwhelming majority.

I disagree some, because this is baseball.
You can play 162 game seasons, and you can argue that some numbers are still noisy. When you compress things into short-series, you are going to get variable results.

I think the biggest accomplishment in baseball is generally building a team / organization that annually contends. That does enough to get to the post-season and roll the dice.  That’s a huge accomplishment.

Also think you have to look at every franchise and the variables they face (different than the NFL, and NBA imo).
Yes, the Dodgers have additional pressure to win it all, given that they’ve had 11 straight years of the post-season, and just 1 WS title. Especially when coupled with their payroll abilities.
But even with them, I’d make the same argument.  They’ve contended annually, which is impressive, and the post-season is just largely random imo.

2) Is Kimbrel It?

After losing Felix Bautista to injury for this ’24 season, Craig Kimbrel was a quality addition. Kimbrel isn’t what he was at his best, and he’s not going to be Bautista’s ’23 equal; but he’s still good enough to help. Not just with what he has left in the tank himself, and his experience; but how his addition impacts the rest of the pen.  In-particular you think about a guy like Yennier Cano. There was going to be enough pressure on Cano to see if he can come close to replicating his ’23 All-Star season, without him having to enter ’24 as ‘the man.’  Also, with Kimbel’s acquisition, you get the freedom of using Cano in other higher-leverage situations.

My question here on January 11th is, “Is Kimbrel it?”
Meaning is this going to be the only addition of note?

Right now the rotation is Kyle Bradish, Grasyon Rodriguez, John Means, Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells.
Overall, there is plenty to like with that group.

Bradish was awesome last year. If he’s anywhere close to his ’23 self in ’24, he’s in the Cy Young running.
Rodriguez was fantastic in the 2nd half. If he puts a full year together, he’ll be neck-and-neck with Bradish as the perceived Ace of the staff.
Means getting back on a ML mound last September was a big deal.
Kremer just gave the O’s 32 starts, and 172 innings. He’s a very solid 4th or 5th starter.
Wells has been very productive before the All-Star break the last two years.

There are also questions.

Over the last two years, Means has 31.2 innings. Is he ready to go, and last a full season?
Is Rodriguez ready to put together a full year?  Is he good for 180 innings?
Kremer is a very solid 4th or 5th starter.  He’s also a 4th or 5th starter. Meaning he’s better than most 4/5s, but that’s also his apparent ceiling.
Wells has been very productive before the All-Star break the last two years; and then he’s fallen apart as he seems to physically hit a wall.

We entered the off-season with the rotation being an area where the O’s could potentially upgrade.
Where if they obtained a front end starter to team with Bradish and Rodriguez; Means and Kremer would get slotted to 4/5, and Wells gets added to the bullpen.
If the Orioles aren’t going to spend money in Free Agency; then what was / is available to them is to use some of their prospect hoard to pry a starter via trade.
Dylan Cease continues to look like the most viable target for the Birds.
If the O’s want him, they should be able to obtain him, given the depth of the O’s Minor League system.
I personally would prefer a Free Agent Starting Pitcher (Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman still available) but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
The appeal with Cease is that the O’s shouldn’t have to put together their A package to obtain him, and he has two years of team control.
He’d help. He’d increase the odds of the Orioles returning to the post-season.
I don’t know if it’s negligence if the O’s don’t obtain a starter of note; but with the limited payroll the Orioles have, coupled with the system depth; it would be hard to argue that it’s sufficient if Kimbrel is the only addition of note this off-season.

3) Who Should Be The O’s Everyday SS To Begin ’24?

I get the sense I’m in the minority, but my vote would be on Joey Ortiz, with Gunnar Henderson at 3rd, Jordan Westburg at 2nd, and Jackson Holliday back to Norfolk.
Ortiz is considered an above average defense SS, and he had an .885 OPS over 349 ab’s last year for Norfolk.
Holliday is going to be up soon. There is already talk of him breaking camp with the Birds.
But the 20 year old has only had 75 AAA ab’s, and there is some concern his glove isn’t quite ML ready.
Seems like an easy decision for me to go with Ortiz, and reevaluate in a couple of months.
You can get to Memorial Day, and judge what you’ve seen from Ortiz and Westburg everyday with more information.
If Holliday is crushing at Norfolk, and the glove looks sound; maybe at that point you part with one of Ortiz or Westburg.

4) Is There Room For Everybody?

If we are answering that question solely for ’24, the answer is no.
If we are thinking beyond ’24 (and of course there are numerous variables here), my answer is maybe?
At-least in-terms of the prospects you would think the O’s want to build around longer-term.

I can picture a possible 2025 Orioles team which looks like:

Cowser, Mullins, Westburg (LF, CF, RF)
Rutschman (C)
Mayo, Kjerstad (1st, DH)
Henderson, Ortiz, Holiday (3rd, SS, 2nd)

It’s a long road between now and next year though, and right now Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, and O’Hearn all still factor and will be part of the story for this ’24 team.