With 3 runs in the bottom of the 12th, the Los Angeles Angels defeated Baltimore 9-8. The loss dropped the Orioles to a remarkable 29 games under .500 at 47-76.

With 123 games in the books, this season has long been over. Officially though, there are another 39 games to play. The Orioles lost 100 games in their first year in Baltimore (1954), and compiled 107 losses in 1988 with one of the worst teams of all time. Remarkably, this O’s team has a great chance to become the 3rd team in organization history to achieve the distinction. There are two reasons why 100 losses this year would be ‘remarkable.’ First, is despite how bad the O’s had been during the ’98-’10 time frame entering this year – none of those sad teams managed to lose 100 games. Secondly, and the reason this year stings so much, is that so many of us expected the best O’s team in recent recollection.

In case these 76 losses have hurt your memory, let me take you back to this Spring, when optimism was strong with the Birds. I obviously had on my Orange colored glasses when I predicted the O’s to finish 83-79. However, It should be noted that good feelings were not limited to those of us here in Charm City.  Baltimore Sports and Life interviewed 22 Baseball Writers prior to this year, many of which have a National presence. Below are the Writers that were surveyed, and their 2011 O’s predictions:

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune (Predicted 75-80 wins, have counted him as 77.5)
Scott Miller, CBS Sports (79-83)
Craig Calcaterra, NBC Sports (Predicted 76-81 wins, have counted him as 78.5)
Joe Lemire, Sports Illustrated (Predicted 72-76 wins, have counted him as 74)
Mel Antonen, SI / MLB Network Radio / MASN (Did not predict total, said .500 possible if everything went right.)
Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs (Predicted 77-82 wins, have counted him as 79.5)
David Pinto, Baseball Musings / Sporting News (76-86)
Ed Price, AOL FanHouse / Sporting News (75-87)
Danny Knobler, CBS Sports (Did not predict total, said O’s can get to .500 or just above.)
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus (80-82)
Jason Collette, DRaysBay / Baseball Prospectus (81-81)
Mike Axisa, River Avenue Blues / NotGraphs (74-88)
Charlie Saponara, ESPN Sweet Spot (81-81)
Jeff Zrebeic, Baltimore Sun (Predicted 78-80 wins, have counted him as 79)
Dave Sheinin, Washington Post (79-83)
Rock Kubatko, MASN (Said 81-85 wins not outrageous, have counted him as 83)
Gary Armida, The Baseball Report (81-81)
Dave Gershman, ESPN Sweetspot / Beyond the Boxscore (74-88)
Jonathan Mitchell, MLB Dirt (77-85)
JD Sussman, Bullpen Banter / Beyond the Boxscore (Did not predict a record, said last place, would have said .500 for O’s with balanced schedule)
Dan Szymborski, Baseball Think Factory / ESPN: (77-85)
Jayson Stark, ESPN (80-82)

Not counting Antonen, Knobler, or Sussman, the average predicted record from those other 19 Writers was 78-84. If you respect the Writers above like I do, I think you have to come to the conclusion that this 2011 O’s team has underachieved.

Or maybe you will say, ‘Who cares what those Writers thought? All that matters is what happens on the field.’ Okay, that is fair enough. The O’s were 41-37 over their last 78 games of 2010. The O’s were 36-48 in their first 84 games of 2011. In that 162 game stretch, the O’s were 77-85. That means for an entire years worth of consecutive games, the Orioles were basically playing at a competitive level. Not good enough to contend, or even on the right side of .500, but they were competitive.

Frankly, it is unbelievable to me that the O’s were 30-31 on June 10th (with not a ton going right for them up until that date) and have gone such a pitiful 17-45 since. You really have to work hard to be that bad over a stretch that long. Baltimore is not going to come anywhere near the 83 wins I predicted, nor the 78 wins as predicted by those 19 Writers. The O’s are going to limp to the finish line with a win total in the low to mid 60’s.

So, why have the O’s underachieved? Primarily, the rotation takes the blame. After the 2010 All-Star break, the O’s had a 4.13 ERA in their last 74 games. After Showalter took over, the O’s had 36 Quality Starts in 57 games with a 3.16 ERA. I thought it was realistic for the O’s to compile a 4.20 team ERA here in 2011. Entering today, the O’s are 30th in MLB in ERA (4.91), and in Quality Starts. You can knock ERA as a stat, but it tells the tale effectively enough. The O’s pitching has simply not been good. There are a number of reasons why the results have been poor (Connor, injuries, etc), but past the ‘why’ is the result itself.

Baltimore sports fans have turned their attention away from the Orange and Black of the O’s, to the Purple and Black of the Ravens. My suggestion to fans of the O’s, is to treat the last 39 games of this season, similarly to how you treated the Ravens Exhibition vs. Kansas City Friday Night. What the O’s do win/loss wise the rest of the way does not matter at all. What does matter is what you see out of the players that will be here next year, and need to perform, and that begins with the rotation.

I’m still disappointed that Arrieta is done for the year. I liked some of the maturation we saw from him this year. By his own admission, the arm soreness he was experiencing which led to the operation, was hindering his control in his number of last starts. I’m happy that he will be able to adopt a regular off-season throwing program and be ready for Spring Training. If you want to have any positive thoughts about the O’s going into next year, Matusz and Britton need to look like effective Major League pitchers down the stretch. They both have that ability, but we need to see it. If Hunter can look like a league average 4th or 5th starter, all the better. Tillman needs to be finishing the year in Baltimore’s rotation as well. (Simon is a nice arm in a ML Bullpen, but he should never be starting consistently at this level.)

Of course, when you are staring at 100 losses, there is never just one thing at fault. While the O’s are 12th overall in Slugging %, they are just 20th overall in On-Base %, and 17th overall in Runs Scored.

You pretty much know what you have in Hardy, Reynolds, Markakis, Jones, and even Wieters at this point. Each of them bring positives to the table, and each of them has some flaws. I absolutely believe you can win with them, but also think we would all feel better about the O’s positional core if they finish with a flurry.

Here would be my individual goals for each of them to end the year:

Hardy: He played in 115 games in ’09, 101 games in ’10, and missed significant time earlier this year. I want to see him play basically every game to end the season. His OBP is at .310, I’d like to see him bring that closer to his career average of .321. Can he keep his SLG % over .500?

Reynolds: The Davis injury is forcing Reynolds to 1st base. I would have liked to have seen him at 3rd the remainder of the year, and see if his defense could have improved to the levels he showed the past two seasons. His OPS was .830 on July 19th, but has dipped to .776 as of today. I want to see him finish with an OPS above his .810 career level, and above the .823 mark Adrian Beltre is currently at. I want to see him exceed the 83 walks he had last year as a career high. (Currently has 63.)

Markakis: After a .718 OPS in the 1st half, Markakis has had a .830 OPS here in the 2nd half. I’d like to see him maintain that level the rest of the way. After averaging 45 doubles the past 4 years, he currently has 21. Can he finish with 35? How about a run at 20 homers (currently has 13), for the first time since ’08? Markakis has 58 RBI, and while that is a stat largely dependent by those around you, I’d still like to see him finish with 80+.

Jones: Jones played in 149 games last year, which was a career high. I’d like to see him exceed that level. He has been consistent in ’11, with 4 straight Months (including so far here in August) with an OPS above .850. Love to see him have a Month + where he breaks out completely. Jones has 23 doubles, and 22 homers. Finishing above 30 in both categories would be nice. He also has 77 RBI, and finishing above 100 in that category is within reach. Jones has tied his career high with 10 steals, can he steal 5 more? I’d like to hear that he gets to the park 1st everyday, and is working with his Coaches on his defense.

Wieters: Among all Catchers, Wieters is 5th overall in Wins Above Replacement. The 1st time All-Star has a wOBA of .316. Wieters has played in 108 games in ’11, after 130 games in ’10. I’d like to see him get over the 140 mark this year, and would give him a few games at DH. He started out strong offensively in April, and has picked up his play here in August. Overall though, his .718 OPS (.398 Slugging) is insufficient offensive production for what the O’s need from him. He has 20 doubles. I’d love to see him show more consistent gap power down the stretch, and push towards 30. He has 11 hr’s. At a minimum, I want to see him finish with 15. In his first two years, he struggled mightily against LHP. This year, he has been tremendous against Lefties (.988 OPS, 97 ab’s), while struggling against RHP (.626 OPS, 290 ab’s vs. .741 OPS last year). He needs to pick it up against RHP down the stretch. He has 32 bb’s vs. 68 k’s. Can he pull that ratio closer together?

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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