O’s Q&A with Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs / Beyond the Boxscore

With the hiring of Dan Duquette, and the hot-stove league kicking into high gear, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Matt Klaassen for his thoughts.

You can find Klaassen’s work with FanGraphs at:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=6213

You can find Klaassen’s work with Beyond the Boxscore at:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

You can find him on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/devil_fingers

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Klaassen for taking the time to answer a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Dan Duquette  has been named the Orioles GM / Executive VP of Baseball Operations. I get the impression that Duquette has a chip on his shoulder, is hungry, and believes Epstein received too much of the credit he felt he deserved.

I’m thinking that even though the GM search was another PR nightmare for the O’s, that they still came out of this with a quality hire. Tony LaCava was a popular choice among many fans of the Birds for this position. I certainly recognized him to be capable, and would have supported that hire as well. For what ever reason, that hire was not able to be completed. Had LaCava been hired, the Orioles would have announced a 50 year-old first time GM. Instead they are announcing the hire of a 53 year-old, who has sat in the big chair (with success) a couple of times. Whatever went well (or bad) for Duquette with the Expos and Red Sox; Duquette has the advantage of leveraging those prior experiences.

My take is that O’s fans should give Duquette a fair shake and only concern themselves with what happens going forward.

What are your thoughts on Duquette, and how much does his absence from the game concern you?”

Klaassen: “Duquette is somewhat unfairly remembered as merely being the guy that got canned so that Beane/Theo could take the Boston job. As has been pointed out, he was the one who obtained many of the key pieces for the 2004 championship team, and he also put together some really good talent in Montreal, including the ill-fated 1994 team.

The Orioles have no choice but to give him a fair shake, but the fact that he really hasn’t sniffed the big leagues since the Boston gig sends up a few warning flags. More important is the question as to what kinds of contacts he still has around baseball for bringing in new people, scouts, analysts, and so on to improve things on the field and in the front office. I don’t know the answer to that, but I it is fair to guess “not as much as if he had been working in the the MLB the last ten years.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Duquette takes over a team which has had not had a winning season since 1997. He also takes over a team which has not even won 70+ games since 2006. Yet, it would also be unfair to say he inherits a total reclamation project either. There is enough talent on the Major League roster, that heading into the 2011 season the averaged predicted win total from 19 different analysts was 78. I still think the O’s underachieved this year. While all of the existing core players have plenty of questions, I still believe there is a decent group of players to move forward with.

Duquette made clear in his Press conference Tuesday that he plans to build the organization through Scouting (Amateur and International) and Player Development. If it seemed unlikely to Orioles fans that the O’s would bid on Fielder, or Darvish, etc. this off-season, I think it is fair to say those odds have been reduced further with the hiring of Duquette.

I see the O’s at a fork in the road. I lean towards believing a deeper rebuilding is necessary and should be the path traveled. However, there is a prevailing belief by many that Orioles Manager Buck Showalter wants to augment around the existing core. I can support heading in either direction, but what I want to see is a complete commitment to which ever road the O’s want to take.

What are a couple of things you believe the O’s should be working to accomplish this Winter?”

Klaassen: “The first thing they need to accomplish is figuring out what their organizational goals are. Honestly, a new GM saying “we want to improve out player development” is like a politician saying “I want to improve the economy.” Pretty much everyone says that, because it is obvious – even the Yankees would not be what they are without having guys like Cano and Gardner at relatively cheap levels.

My point is that while Duquette is saying that, and it is the right strategy, well, a) does he mean it, and b) more importantly, is the rest of the organization on board with it? A few years ago, I thought the Os were on the brink of making some noise, and despite making some good moves (they also made some bad ones), some things didn’t work out. Markakis never came close to replicating his 2008, Adam Jones has become a good payer rather than a superstar, Matt Wieters (more on him below) didn’t immediately make anyone forget Mike Piazza, and the young pitchers didn’t work out.

At this point, the Orioles can’t pretend like they are just a couple of tweaks away. They also need to stop with the ill-conceived “get to .500” strategy that worked out so poorlythe last couple of off-seasons. I’m not saying they have to trade every player and give up. However, I think they need to start setting a more realistic timetable for contention. They need to start figuring out how and when they are going to win 92 games, not adding pieces here and there to win 82. And the latter is the strategy they seem to have been following the last few offseasons. Their core just hasn’t turned out to be that great.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During this past 2011 season, Showalter met regularly with Majority Owner Peter Angelos. Showalter has enough influence within the organization, that he was part of the interview committee with the prospective GM candidates. Presumably, Duquette and Showalter are currently on the same page.

However, if it becomes apparent that Duquette, and Showalter have differing philosophies of how the organization should be built (both in the immediate, and long-term) do you agree that Showalter’s opinions should be considered, but that the Manager reports to the GM; and thus the GM should have autonomy to make the moves they desire? If the O’s are going to listen to Showalter first, should he have been the one named the GM?”

Klaassen: “I don’t have anything original to say here. Yeah, if the Orioles are going to listen to Buck Showalter first, he should be the GM. What could possibly go wrong?  Look, we all doubted Mike Scioscia’s abilities to judge Mike Napoli, but after the Angels traded him, Napoli was terrible and we learned that, indeed, he was just a part-time  player. Oh, wait. Buck Showalter was credited by some with the “turnaround” of the Orioles pitching after he took over in the middle of 2010, people who totally did not think that was random variation. Shouldn’t he then take the blame for the pitching disaster of 2011?

Managers are close to the game and the player every day, and obviously their opinions should be taken into consideration. But there is not way Showalter (or pretty much any other manager) should be able to bypass the GM, modern baseball just does not work that way. Or at least it should not.

I do not know whether Duquette is the right man for the GM job, but if he has to negotiate withg Buck Showalter (or any other manager) over  his moves, he’s already operating at a handicap. For the sake of Orioles fans, I hope he got a guarantee of autonomy from that nonsense before he signed the contract.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Beyond the Major League team itself, Duquette also inherits a Minor League system with some high top-level talent, and a overall lack of depth. Last Winter, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law both ranked the O’s system in the lower 1/3 of baseball. When we spoke with Baseball America’s Jim Callis last month (http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3047), Callis did not anticipate the O’s moving into the middle of the 2012 rankings.

Joe Jordan, who had been the Orioles Director of Amateur Scouting, has left the organization to become the Phillies Player Development Director. An immediate question for Duquette will be, who is he going to get to replace Jordan? One name that interests me is Amiel Sawdaye, who is currently Boston’s Director of Amateur Scouting. Sawdaye is not going to leave the Red Sox for a lateral position, but perhaps the Baltimore native would join the O’s if he was named Asst. General Manager? If not Sawdaye, are there other external options you can name that you believe Duquette should consider?”

Answer: N/A

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2^nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones finished ’11 with a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .339, and his Isolated Power (ISO) was .185. For the 2^nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3^rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Klaassen: “The short version of this is that the Orioles probably either need to extend Jones this off-season or start looking for a trade partner. After 2012, Jones will only have one year left to free agency, so if  he’s healthy, he has not big incentive not to take arbitration and then test free agency after 2013., This is the onlytime left  that the Orioles will probably have leverage. If they go to arbitration, Jones would probably get around $6 million, then with a  dcent year, probably at least $9 million after 2013.

Taking all the evidence into account (statistical and otherwise), I think Jones is an average center fielder at best, at this point, and that might be generous. Once you adjust for the run environment, he probably had the best offensive season of his career in 2011> The improvement in power is nice, but Jones still a a free-swinger with below-average contact abilities  While he’ll only be 26 to start 2012, that is not all that young, and so he probably is about as good as he will ever be, even if he is not yet in decline.

People often say “Team X should sign Player Y to a club-favorable contract.” Sure, by definition, any player should be signed to a “club favorable” contract (unless you are looking at it from the player or agent’s perspective). For the Orioles I would not go beyond something like 3/25 or 4/32 guaranteed for Jones, and even that might be a bit steep, depending on what you think of his defense. That would give him security and the Orioles some of his free agent years, while potentially adding value down the road if they want to trade him (club options are always nice, but that’s obvious). But they need to be thinking, “what can we do to maximize Jones value to us whther he keep him or trade him,” not “how can we build around Adam Jones. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong, weirder things have happened (Jose Bautista), and I’m wrong a lot.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There was been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve.

What are your current thoughts on these three?”

Klaassen: “I have no idea what happened with  Matusz… that’s beyond me. Just awful, and he looked so good prior that. Unless he looks like he’s “back” in the spring, he may need to start the season in the minors to regain his form and work out whatever went wrong. I heard a suggestion somewhere (Law?) that the infield defense (or lack thereof) might have caused him to start pitching differently, I don’t know. With Arrieta, they need to focus on making sure he is healthy to start the year, then go fro there. Britton may not have the upside of Matusz, but he’s the “safest” of these three going into 2012, I have the most confidence in his ability to at least have a non-horrible walk rate.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him?”

Klaassen: “Matt Treanor, duh! But seriously, I think it was before or early in the season I wrote for one of these that Wieters had become underrated. Catcher defense is still a work in progress for sabermetrics, but many of the more recent developments and my own simple metric (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/11/1/2497088/2011-beyond-the-box-score-catcher-defense-rankings) had him as the best or one of the best defensive catchers in the league, and his  offense is good for the position. I suppose I would take Buster Posey or Carlos Santana before Wieters (if Jesus Montero counts, him, too). Wieters is superior defensively to those players (although Posey wasn’t bad before he got hurt), but those others are  better offensively, and if they have to move off the position, their bats would still be good, whereas Wieters bat would be below-average at any other position.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Prior to any external additions, the O’s likely 2012 roster currently resembles something like:

Guthrie, Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Bergesen, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Davis 1^st
Reimold LF
DH
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Backup C, Angle, Adams

The Orioles 2011 payroll was roughly $85M. Those 23 players above are likely due somewhere between $65-$70M.

In 2011, the O’s spent about $10M on Amateur Scouting, and I believe around $1.5M on International Scouting. I think in generalities, you can estimate that the O’s have been willing to spend roughly $100-$105M combined on their Major League roster, Amateur Scouting, Intl. Scouting, Player Development, and Pro Scouting.

With Duquette stating he wants to build the organization, I think you have to expect that the 2012 payroll figures to be in the $85-$90M range, and could possibly be reduced. Considering Tampa Bay just went to the Playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years with a payroll of just $41M, I feel that nobody should cry if the O’s 2012 payroll is reduced and reallocated to the other facets of Baseball Operations.

Beginning with the starting point of the existing roster, and an understanding of the limitations which will mark the O’s search; where and how can Baltimore improve through external additions? Do you agree that if the O’s are to have tangible improvement, it will come from within with currently existing parts?”

Klaassen: “As I said above, the Orioles need to not do what they did the two previous off-seasons – add veterans and payroll for projected improvements that only get them over .500. Everything now and for he next few seasons needs to be about finding value whether through trades or otherwise accruing undervalued talent while building up their minor-league system. If that means trading some of their better players, so be it. Fans understandably want to keep the good players and trade the bad ones for other good ones,but the league rarely works that way any more. They  need guys to pitch and play positions as non-horrible stopgaps, but they should not spend tons of money doing it. IF they can get a guy like Jeff Francis (just an example) to plug a rotation hole for a couple million, that is one thing, But that’s  about it. They need to be bargain hunting and thinking about 2014 and beyond.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Let’s say the O’s signed the following players for the following contracts:

Sizemore: 1yrs $9M
Buehrle: 4yrs $50M
Barajas: 1yr $2.5M (Note from BSL, Barajas signed with Pittsburgh 11/10)
DeJesus: 1yr $5M

That would equal a $29M investment for ’12. Adding that to the $65-$70M payroll which currently exists, and we are talking about a payroll in the $94-$99M range. That would be elevated over last year, but probably palatable to the O’s.

This would leave the O’s looking like:

Buehrle, Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Hunter, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Sizemore DH
Davis 1^st
DeJesus LF
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Barajas, Reimold, Adams

While I think those moves would improve the O’s, Baltimore would still figure to reside in the bottom of the American League East (unless Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz drastically raised their games). If they are unlikely to move out of the cellar with such moves, do you think Baltimore would be better off saving their money?”

Klaassen: “Yes, they should undoubtedly save their money. And if they get a chance to trade one of their better veterans for decent minor league talent, they should not hesitate. Hardy, in particular, could have some real value if he shows he can stay healthy for an extended period of time. Jones, maybe Markakis and especially Wieters (who will have the most value, as hard as it might be to part with him) could bring back something shiny. The Orioles have some good talent in the minors. They need more.”