Brian Matusz threw a whopping 18 innings as a reliever, but they were some of the most dominant innings we’ve seen a young reliever throw in quite some time. In the playoffs Brian became part of Buck’s go-to 1-2 punch alongside righty sidearmer Darren O’Day. For a more robust discussion of O’Day’s dominance check out this terrific piece on Fangraphs about him.
Matusz delivers a Changeup in the ALDS - AP Photo/Nick Wass
This post isn’t about O’Day though, it’s about Brian Matusz. It was all cemented when Brian made one of the best hitters in baseball look silly with three straight fastballs. Matusz would go on to dominate the playoffs giving up just 1 earned run (albeit a very unfortunate one). Over the course of the 18 innings Matusz gave up just 3 runs and sported an ERA well under 2.
The beauty of Matusz and O’Day is that neither guy is really a specialist. Many O’s fans thought Matusz would be a typical LOOGY but in reality he held hitters from both sides of the plate to a .123 batting average. In fact, at one point righties were 1 for 21 against Matusz, which gave them a BAA below .050 and roughly equivalent to what Mark Buehrle did over 71 ABs this season (.045).
How did he do it? Well he didn’t throw his Sinker, which is pretty much his worst pitch. He also relied more heavily on his Fastball, including throwing it over 60% of the time to Left-Handed Hitters as opposed to just 48% as a starter.He also increased his Fastball usage against Right-Handed Hitters meaning that he had to cut down on other pitches. As a result he threw his Slider and Curveball less to hitter from both sides.
Matusz essentially made himself a 2-pitch pitcher against Lefties, but had as many as 4 pitches against Right-Handed batters.
Based on this I think Matusz would be an ideal closer candidate because he can get guys from both sides of the plate. Ironically Jim Johnson stole the club saves record from another lefty, so it’s possible that Johnson could be moved and Matusz will try to take the record back for the Randy Meyers, BJ Ryans and any other southpaw closers the O’s have had.
That said, I’m still holding out hope that he can make the transition back to the starting rotation. Obviously I’ve said this before, and honestly I could talk about the flashes of brilliance he showed as a starter this year. I’m not going to do that. What I am going to say is that a guy who can get lefties out with a dominant slider and improved control could have value as a starter. If that same guy has 4 pitches he can rely on to get righties out as well, that’s something else.
The improved control is the key here. Some guys excel as relievers because they don’t need to have as much control and can get big Ks with stuff that moves all over the strikezone. Matusz saw his walk rate drop as a reliever, and his strikeout rate nearly doubled. Obviously he won’t strikeout 12+ batters per nine innings as a starter, but if he keeps his walk rate down he could still be very successful.
So it’s decision time. You’re Buck (or whoever the manager is next year, as Buck may have his sights set on a front office job somewhere) and you need to decide if you want Brian as a reliever or a starter. Obviously the easy decision is to let him start and then throw him in the bullpen if it doesn’t work out. That also takes away the option of trading Jim Johnson in the offseason when his value is highest, without having to find a placeholder for the closer position.
What will it be? Either way I think we can look forward to seeing Matusz dominate batters next season. It’s just a matter of it whether it happens in the 3rd inning or the 7th/8th/9th.
Jeff was the owner of the Orioles blog Warehouse Worthy, which focused on making advanced statistics a part of the conversation for the average fan. Outside of baseball, Jeff is a graduate of Loyola University where he received his Bachelor’s and Master’s in Business Administration. The Maryland native currently works for an Advertising Agency in downtown Baltimore. Previously a contributor to Beyond the Boxscore, he joined Baseball Prospectus in September 2014. You can reach him at jeff.long@baltimoresportsandlife.com.