Early Spring Training Observations

I was lucky enough to head down to Sarasota, Florida for the weekend to check out the start of the spring training exhibition schedule. Having been an Orioles fan since I was nine (1996… getting old) its hard for even me to believe that this was my first time attending the yearly festivities in Florida for the month of March (and late February). I was able to attend the home opener at Ed Smith Stadium on Saturday in which the Orioles defeated the Minnesota Twin’s split-squad 10-4 in front of a lively crowd. The O’s home park is a beautiful stadium with a nice backdrop of palm trees behind the outfield walls. It’s cool to be able to see major league players in a setting more fitting for the minors with seats so close to the field. Mike Elias and Koby Perez were sitting behind home plate amongst the fans. It was a laid-back atmosphere despite the overwhelming heat (at least compared to what I left and am now returning to) and blasts of cheering when the Orioles did something good. On Sunday I took the long trip up to Lakeland and watched the Orioles score 10 more runs and defeat the Detroit Tigers 10-6. Publix Field wasn’t quite as nice as Ed Smith but it was still a nice, friendly atmosphere. And hey, I was watching baseball in February. I wouldn’t complain if it played in my backyard (although that would make for some very short dimensions). It was a great experience but now I’ll get into some observations by highlighting a few players that stood out.

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Terrin Vavra – 4-6, double, HR, 4 RBI

This early on it has been mostly prospects and non-roster invites getting the playing time outside of Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Dean Kremer who are getting ready for the World Baseball Classic so need to get ramped up early. That works out fine for me as someone who covers the minor leagues. For the record Mullins looked like Mullins, Santander looked like Santander, and Kremer looked like Kremer – we pretty much know what to expect from them. One of the guys clearly playing for a job is Vavra who is fighting for a bench spot as a utility player. He played second base on Saturday and third base on Sunday, a position he has pretty much never played outside of one inning in Aberdeen last year. We’ve also heard he practiced playing first base over the offseason and the more versatility he has the better. He actually looked great at the hot corner making two diving stops and throws for an out, one to his left and one to his right. The arm isn’t good enough to play there full time but it should be plenty serviceable to use him there occasionally. He can also play left and center field and was drafted as a shortstop. He has a great approach at the plate and a hit tool that should play at the big league level. Not much power there but he did hit a ground-rule double to right center field and a homerun to dead center on Saturday. I have to think he is the early favorite to grab one of the very few opening day spots that are up for grabs this spring.

Heston Kjerstad – 4-4, 2 HR

Kjerstad missed so much time after being drafted second overall in the 2020 MLB draft with a bout of myocarditis and then a hamstring injury last spring that the fact he even got meaningful professional at-bats was a win last season. He started off very strong crushing the competition in low A Delmarva before struggling a bit at high A Aberdeen and even being pulled from a game for slamming his bat and not running out a ground ball at one point. He ended his time with the Ironbirds on an upswing and carried that into the Arizona Fall League, winning that league’s MVP award with his power display. Turns out the offseason didn’t slow him down at all. He came in mid-game Saturday as a pinch runner for Anthony Santander (who worked a walk after being the first Oriole to suffer a clock violation which started his at-bat with a 0-1 count) and then nearly hit three home runs. In his first at-bat, he clanged a ball off of the left field foul pole and then really hammered one over the fence in left-center field his second time up. In his final plate appearance he just missed hitting the left field foul pole again but then settled for a single, turning on a pitch and hitting a hard ground ball into right field. He only got one plate appearance on Sunday but had another hit and while he will undoubtedly start the season with AA Bowie it doesn’t hurt to make a good impression with the major league coaches. A fast start with the Baysox could get him to AAA Norfolk around mid-season and anything can happen from there.

Cade Povich – 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Much has been made about Povich since he was the centerpiece of the trade that sent then-closer Jorge Lopez to the Minnesota Twins at last year’s trade deadline. The Orioles also got back reliever Yennier Cano and two complex-level pitchers with high upside but a long way to go in Juan Rojas and Juan Nunez but it is Povich who the success of the deal should ultimately hinge on. Many fans were staunchly against that trade and the Trey Mancini trade to the Astros as the Orioles were on the fringes of the playoff race and it felt like the front office was giving up on that pipe dream. Weird things can happen in sports and who knows how things would’ve played out if the team stood pat or tried to add a player or two but just focusing on Povich as a prospect there are conflicted reports on what his upside is. Most outlets, including our own, have him just outside of the organization’s top 10 and fighting with Seth Johnson (and Drew Rom in some places but I think he’s clearly above him at this point) as the team’s best pitching prospect not named Grayson Rodriguez or DL Hall. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has him as the 54th best prospect in baseball and time will tell if that is an outlier or him just being ahead of his peers in this case. Reports have been very positive in camp and he looked every bit of the part on Sunday against the Tigers late-game reserves. He gave up a base hit to the first batter he faced but quickly got a ground ball for a double play and then struck three batters (all swinging) over his two scoreless innings of work. The fastball was sitting 93-94 mph but he was really mixing up his pitches, he has a wide arsenal as he noted in our interview with him last week, leaving hitters off balance. He may pitch in one more major league spring training game before heading to Twin Lakes and ultimately back to AA Bowie but the signs of a 2023 breakout are mounting.

Colton Cowser – 0-2, 4 BB

Another prospect who there has surprisingly been some dissension on this list season is Cowser who has appeared around or in most outlets’ top 50 but was left out entirely from FanGraph’s and The Athletic’s top 100s. The knocks on him appear to be a question of whether he can stick in center field and/or hit breaking balls at the highest levels of the sport. The strikeout rate was surprisingly high in 2022 considering he was known for his hit tool and showed it off in a big way during his brief professional debut after the 2021 draft. Swing adjustments to try and tap into more power (which he did, especially after leaving hitter un-friendly Aberdeen) and adjusting to the daily grind of his first full season coming from a small school are some reasons for that but we’ll see if he is able to make adjustments in that department this season. What is clear is that even with an inflated strikeout rate he still got on base over 40% of the time and has a great eye at the plate and great discipline to use it consistently. That was on clear display Saturday and Sunday as he worked a walk in four of his six plate appearances. In the field he played center in both games and to my eye got very good jumps and really good reads on flyballs, making all the plays. He may not be the athlete that Cedric Mullins is to make him a plus defender at the position but his tracking skills and strong enough arm should make him at least average out there and a good option to roam Camden Yard’s new spacious left field as long as Mullins is around. Cowser will head back to AAA Norfolk where he finished the 2022 season but president of baseball operations Mike Elias is on record as saying he expects him to make his major league debut at some point in 2023. Whether due to injury or trade that opens up a spot combined with earning the promotion due to his performance with the Tides he is yet another exciting major league debut Orioles fans should have to look forward to this year.

Jackson Holliday – 1-2, double, BB

It isn’t normal that a high school position player from the previous year’s draft gets an invitation to major league spring training less than a year after being selected but it doesn’t appear as if 2022’s first overall pick is normal. Holliday obviously grew up around the game and has the advantages that being former long-time big leaguer and borderline hall of famer Matt Holliday’s son comes with but has been nothing but glowing praise since the Orioles took him over the likes of Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, and Brooks Lee. Based on prospect lists and what outlets are reporting they’re hearing from those within the industry (“move him up”, “he’s too low”, etc) it seems like the Orioles made the right choice and Holliday is the clear top prospect out of last year’s draft and is up there with a few others as the favorite to be the number one overall prospect in baseball next year. If that happens, and there’s a long way to go, that would give the Orioles three consecutive seasons of having that honor after Adley Rutschman heading into 2022 and Gunnar Henderson heading into this season. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde has talked about how mature he comes across, and I’ve heard the same from players inside the clubhouse, almost belying the fact that he just turned 19 in December. After seeing him in person I can confirm that fact but it goes beyond that. At the plate he has the approach of a much older, more season prospect. He was up there with Terrin Vavra and Colton Cowser as having the best at-bats. On Saturday he hit the second pitch he saw into right-center field for a hustle double and then scored on a Cesar Prieto single, showing off his speed. On Sunday he had two plate appearances, walking in his first and striking out in his second but he worked the count full taking a very tough pitch just outside before swinging through a breaking ball. In the field he turned a tough double play, taking the toss that Prieto had a tough time getting out of his glove and hopping over the runner bearing down on second base. The arm is plenty strong already and that plus his power projection will only continue to get better as he fills out his tall frame. It’s crazy but I think at this point he is heading right to high A Aberdeen with a chance to end the year in AA Bowie. At 19 years old.

Best of the Rest: Joey Ortiz only played on Saturday but showed why he will be making his major league debut at some point this season making a few plays at shortstop and cracking a triple off of the centerfield wall after just missing a homerun to the opposite field in a previous at-bat… Connor Norby played second base on Sunday and hit two balls 104 mph, one a line drive single up the middle and the other a double off the right-center field wall… Jordan Westburg started at shortstop Sunday and had an infield single and walk but did botch a fairly routine groundball for an error… Cesar Prieto has bulked up significantly and is 3-3 after two games, hitting a double 107 mph on Sunday… Drew Rom had a shaky beginning to his start on Saturday’s ST opener but settled down nicely striking out two batters… Lewin Diaz and Curtis Terry are the early contenders for the Jake Fox award with both hitting home runs and playing first base. Diaz also added a double and both balls were hit incredibly hard (110 and 107 mph)… Pretty much every reliever that made an appearance was throwing gas. Logan Gillaspie, Yennier Cano, and Kade Strowd touched 97 on Sunday. There isn’t a radar gun in Sarasota but Eduard Bazardo, Chris Vallimont, and Wandisson Charles stood out from a pure stuff perspective…