End Of Year Review – The Pass Catcher

This off-season I have reviewed the Ravens front seven, the secondary, the offensive line, and the quarterback. Our positional unit reviews now continue with a look at the pass catchers.

For years, Ravens fans have wished for one of the most dominant passing attacks in the league headed by a superstar wide receiver. But our hopes of that died when Dennis Pitta with another season ending injury. Or did it? What if I told you we actually got our wish last year, and just didn’t notice? The Ravens ended the season ranked 6^th in passing DVOA, by the far the best since Joe Flacco was drafted. Looking back, the team’s passing attack was better than it had any right to be.

(Discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Torrey Smith:                                                                                             

The most interesting aspect of the Ravens passing attack last year was Torrey Smith. At first glance, there seems to be a huge incongruity between Smith’s production by the numbers (he posted career lows in reception and receiving yards) and how much advanced statistics value Smith (he ranked as the seventh best wide receiver in the NFL by DVOA). But there is a clear explanation to why Smith ranks so highly in advanced stats: he draws the most defensive pass interference penalties in the NFL BY FAR. Greg Garcia from SB Nation’s Baltimore Beatdown has an in-depth numerical breakdown here illustrating how once you credit Torrey Smith for the yardage he picks up drawing defensive pass interference penalties, he is easily one of the ten best wide receivers in the NFL. (That article was discussed further on the BSL Board here.)

However, the pass interference penalties are more often the result of Flacco making strategic throws than some special magic “pass interference drawing skill” of Torrey Smith. When Flacco sees Smith matched up against a receiver one-on-one, he will intentionally underthrow the ball. When Smith stops and turns to catch the ball, the opposing cornerback will come crashing into Smith, drawing a defensive pass interference penalty. 

I don’t mean to discount Torrey’s contribution in drawing these pass interference calls. This scheme doesn’t work without a speedy wide receiver who can stop on a dime, and I’m sure Smith and Flacco’s chemistry is one of the main reasons this works.  But the Ravens led the league in drawing pass interference penalties in 2010, the year before Smith entered the league, which helps support the argument that Smith is overvalued by advanced statistics. But it’s impossible to know for sure. It will be interesting to see if a new Ravens wide receiver can draw pass interference penalties like Smith has been doing for so long.

Steve Smith

Given the dearth of pass catching talent on the Ravens, I think Steve is the preferable Smith to remain on this team. Don’t get me wrong, I think Torrey Smith is definitely the better player. But Steve Smith is clearly more versatile than Torrey, which matters more when you only can have one of them.

A further look at the numbers shows how Smith varied his route running. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith ran 494 routes in the slot in 2014, with a catch rate of 55.6% and picking up 1.51 yards per route run. Below, you can see Smith lined up in the slot on a play that ended up with a 25 yard gain.

But Smith was often used just like a regular wide receiver, lining up the outside and capable of running deep routes. While Pro Football Focus doesn’t have route running statistics for categories other than slot receiving, Smith would frequently line up as a traditional receiver and was effective.

But while Smith has been effective and versatile, he is also getting older. And even though it hasn’t effected Smith too much yet, age can strike quickly and unexpectedly. Older receivers that showed no signs of slowing down one year can be completely useless the next. So even though Smith seems mysteriously impervious to the aging process, the Ravens shouldn’t expect that to last, and shouldn’t be shocked if he suffers a rapid decline next year.

Other Receivers

While the Ravens have a lot of other receivers, I felt none of the other ones were good enough or used enough for them to have a section on their own. So I’ll list off my thoughts on them here.

Marlon Brown was impressive when playing in the slot, with a catch-rate of 85%, the result of a physical mismatch and good route-running. However, I don’t know whether he can take the next step and become a number two receiver in Torrey Smith’s absence. He still lacks top end speed and can avoid press coverage when playing in the slot. Both of those things are necessary to take Smith’s place.

Other than one game against the Dolphins, Kamar Aiken was actively counterproductive most games. And aside from a couple moments this season, Michael Campanaro was a non-factor. Unless he’s shown something that I haven’t seen in practice (a distinct possibility), I don’t think he’s a real difference maker for this team.  (Fellow BSL Ravens Analyst Shawn Brubaker reviewed Campanaro further here.)

Concluding thoughts

The Ravens front office is good for many reasons, but one of the most underrated reasons is they are able to conceptualize out of the box ways to create a competitive offense or defense, almost always at a lower price. When most teams construct an offense, they try to pick up dominant wide receivers or big pass catching tight ends. The Ravens didn’t have that, but were still able to create a competitive offensive system by picking up an undervalued veteran in Steve Smith and focusing on creating pass interference downfield. When you aren’t caught up in the tunnel vision of an “ideal offense”, you can suddenly find bargains and undervalued assets everywhere.

Going forward, the Ravens should probably draft a tight end or a wide receiver. I don’t think this offense will be nearly as effective as it was last year if the team just stands pat. But I trust the front office to fill the holes before the season rolls around. For the longest time, Ozzie Newsome and company have been recognized for building some of the best defenses the NFL has seen. It’s time we recognize them for putting together competitive offenses out of some copper string and wire as well.