EPL 2022/2023- Mid Season Review

Just a little over a month since the completion of the World Cup (and it was a great one) and the EPL is back in full swing after a month off. Teams have gotten just past the midway point in the season and have given us a pretty good idea of just how they are going to do this year. But before we get into the team-by-team breakdown lets take a quick look at some news from around the league.

1. First on everyone’s mind with the weird winter WC format was just how any player injuries suffered during the WC would create problems for their clubs. Thankfully there weren’t that many injuries at the WC that have subsequently impacted EPL sides. Of course fans of Arsenal and Tottenahm would beg to differ.
   • Arsenal lost striker Gabriel Jesus ti a knee injury and he is out until probably March.
   • Tottenham lost Ricarlison with a thigh injury but he has returned and has had 3 sub appearances in the last week.
2. With the winter transfer window winding down rumors are flying (per usual) about some potential big moves. Thus far its been a relatively quiet window with the exception of Chelsea. And their moves were as much injury driven as club improvement. They have been pretty decimated this season. So they have opened up the bank and spent over $150M to bring in Mykhailo Mudryk (winger from Shakhtar Donetsk) and Benoit Badiashile (centerback from Monaco). The one surprise signing thus far has been Liverpool spending $46M to bolster their attack with Cody Gakpo (forward from PSV in the Dutch League). Certainly things can happen quickly as we approach the end of the window. The biggest rumor for USMNT fans is the interest of Leeds (and apparently Arsenal) in Weston McKennie (Juventus midfileder),
3. But no story line thus far is bigger than the historic season of Manchester City striker Erling Haaland. At the outset of the season there wasn’t much question that Haaland would score in the EPL The only question was how long would it take him to get comfortable with the pace and physical play of the top league in the world. Well he answered that in his first EPL match scoring twice! He has so many ways he can score….how do you get your foot on the ball OVER head height???
   • Has scored 25 goals in their first 19 matches. Already outscoring last year’s EPL Golden Boot winners (Son and Mo Salah) who each scored 23 times.
   • He has 4 hat tricks thus far equaling the combined number of hat tricks in the rest of the EPL and tying him for second in a season with Harry Kane. Only Alan Shearer has more (5) in a season and Haaland has 18 more matches to tie that record.
   • Haaland needs 9 more goals to tie the all time season record of 34 held by Andy Cole (1993-1994) and Alan Shearer (1994-1995). And if you are counting both Cole’s and Shearer’s seasons were 42 games.

So lets take a look at each club in what’s been a pretty entertaining and surprising season thus far,

AFC Bournemouth

Preseason Prediction – 20th

Current Standings – 18th

While not in last place they are still solidly in the relegation zone as was anticipated. The leagues worst defense has allowed 42 goals in just 20 matches. Allowing 2+goals/match while scoring 1/match just gets you what you’d expected. And there isn’t any reason to have much hope for things to improve much the rest of the way. Expect them to drop back down.

Arsenal

Preseason Prediction – 4th

Current Standings – 1st

Arsenal was viewed as a team on the rise and they have not disappointed. While most pundits figured the Gunners to have a solid shot at a coveted top 4 finish (qualifying for UEFA Champions League) nobody had them pegged to sit in first. Yet here we are past the halfway point and they are 5 points clear of second place Manchester City with a game in hand. They just seem like a team on a mission and they certainly don’t quit. Case in point was there last match against Manchester United at home on Sunday. Man U opened the scoring but Arsenal equalized then took the lead in the 53rd minute. But the Red Devils tied in in the 59th minute and it went to extra time looking like Man U would get the away point. But nope, Arsenal wasn’t satisfied and pressed on scoring the game winner late in extra time. This team will be around the top come May.

Aston Villa

Preseason Prediction – 9th

Current Standings – 11th

Aston Villa has been performing just about as expected although their slightly upside down goal differential is pretty much why they sit a few spots lower than expected. They are comfortably ahead of the relegation zone and well behind earning a spot in the Euro leagues next season and don’t see that changing the rest of the way

Brentford

Preseason Prediction – 18th

Current Standings – 8th

Big surprise #1. A team likely headed to relegation has found something special at Gtech Community Stadium. They are playing a solid blend of attack and defense and have done quite well since the return from the break having gone 3-2-0 and beating Liverpool. This team just might have a shot at the Europa League if they continue to play this well. If Ivan Toney continues to score (13 goals for 3rd in the league) they have a lot to be optimistic for. Fans are having fun in West London!

Brighton Hove Albion

Preseason Prediction – 20th

Current Standings – 6th

Big surprise #2. Another team expected to be down in the relegation zone find themselves in a Europa League spot! And like Brentford they have played very well since the break currently on a 3-1-1 run. And while they have a solid defense they are winning with attacking football, their 37 goals good for 4th in the league. The interesting part of the BHA attack is that they have multiple ways to score. In fact their leading scorer, Leandro Tossard, has just 7 goals. But they have 5 players who have at least 4 tallies on the season. This well balanced attack is tough to defend against.

Chelsea

Preseason Prediction – 3rd

Current Standings – 10th

Big surprise #3 but this one is in the way wrong direction. A team most certainly expected to finish top 4 and qualify for UCL is in danger of not even making the Europa League. Although they currently sit just a game out of that spot. Its hard to know what to make of them. For a number of seasons they could scored but had a hard time defending. Well they defend having allowed the 4th fewest goals across the league. But they can’t score having the 13th fewest goals in the league. Now to be fair they have been decimated by injuries. These are the Chelsea players currently out with injuries: Pulisic, Mendy, Chillwell, James, Fofana, Zakaria, Sterling, Kante, and Broja. You could put a very competitive EPL team on the field with those 9 guys and two warm bodies. Ouch is all I can say about this team. Hopefully things pick up the rest of the way.

Crystal Palace

Preseason Prediction – 12th

Current Standings – 12th

Bingo on this one. However they better find a way to start scoring some goals if they want to move up in the table at all. Either that or stop allowing almost 2 goals/game. Come May I think they finish comfortably mid-table.

Everton

Preseason Prediction – 14th

Current Standings – 19th

Big surprise #4 and another in the wrong direction. Although seen as a slipping mid table side they have taken a huge slide backwards. The only reason they aren’t dead last is Southampton has an even worse goal differential. Since the break Everton has gone a woeful 0-1-4. They are headed downhill and fast and unless some major changes are made soon I think they will get relegated out of the top flight for the first time since 1951. Yikes!!

Fulham

Preseason Prediction – 17th

Current Standings – 7th

Big surprise #5 but this one back in to the positive direction. The biggest change, if you can call it that, has been the career season of center back Tim Ream. While Ream has been a fine player throughout his career he was viewed as getting close to aging out at 35. Then the EPL season started and he looked better than at any point in his career. Strong enough to earn a callup to the USMNT and a start at every match at the WC where he played very well. Its so fun to watch older players come on so late in their career and Fulham might just ride his leadership to a top 10 finish and a Europa League spot is a strong possibility.

Leeds

Preseason Prediction – 15th

Current Standings – 15th

Bingo again and what a fun team to watch. Yes I am biased but they have two kids from the US who are just doing their thing across the pond. Brenden Aaronson playing attacking midfielder is the energizer bunny and is getting better and better and at just 22 looks to have a bright and long future. But THE guy in Leeds is clearly defensive midfielder Tyler Adams. Adams who captained the USMNT at the WC has been just outstanding this season and is 2nd in the entire league in tackles at 71. Kid is a baller and another young player who is going to be around for a long time. Leeds is on the cusp of being a top half table side if they can stay up this year and make a few key additions this summer. And its great having Jesse Marsch doing well as their manager. One day I expect him to be the USMNT manager (2030?).

Leicester City

Preseason Prediction – 10th

Current Standings – 14th

Since the restart 3 teams have been terrible going 0-1-4. Leicester is one of those and they have been outscored 10-3 in that span. They need to infuse some young attacking talent as they can no longer depend on Jamie Vardy to provide much spark, In 20 matches thus far Vardy has but a single goal. He’s36 and might be aging out.

Liverpool

Preseason Prediction – 1st

Current Standings – 9th

Big Surprise #6 and man did I miss this one. This looked to be the season that it all came together for the Red and they could get past Manchester City. But as they say, this is why you play the games. They have been a real up and down team this year. One day they look like the world beaters their resume says they should be then they go a game or two and you wonder is the local pub team is wearing their jersey’s. Coming out of the break the won 2 straight beating Aston Villa and Leicester City. Then they promptly lost 2 in a row and looked badly doing so getting beat by Brentford and BHA by a combined score of 6-1. Then their last match was a lackluster 0-0 draw with Chelsea. This team is a mess but they still have a talented and deep roster. They are only 2 points out of a Europa League spot and have a game in hand but they sit 10 points out of a UCL spot, Not out of reach but they need to start stringing together series of better results.

Manchester City

Preseason Prediction – 2nd

Current Standings – 2nd

Bingo but only partial credit since I had Liverpool and not Arsenal ahead of them. But the good news for Citizen fans is that they are well entrenched in the top 4 and clearly still within striking distance of the title. Of course the key date to mark on your calendar is February 15th when Arsenal hosts Man C. That is going to be a must watch match. And if nobody can slow Haaland down the kid might end up with 40 goals this season. He’s the big reason they lead the league in goals scored and if you try and focus too much on him they have Phil Foden as well. And of course all world playmaker Kevin de Bruyne leads the league in assist with 11. I think the race for the title is going to be close.

Manchester United

Preseason Prediction – 6th

Current Standings – 4th

It took awhile for manager Erik ten Hag to get the team playing as a unit and avoiding the constant distractions with Cristiano Ronaldo. No question Ronaldo is still a talented player but his attitude put him above the manager and his teammaes and it was time for him to go, And go he did of to Saudi Arabia for some insane $213M/year for the next 2 1/2 years. Now sure that contract means Al Nassar also has rights to his image and commercial deals but still. Thats a lot of coin for a 37 year old striker who can’t support the defense much anymore. The key for Man U has been the through the middle of the pitch. Goalkeeper David deGea has been very strong; Rafael Verance has solidified the back line; Bruno Fernandes, Christian Eriksen, and Casemiro have worked very well together in the mdifield; and Marcus Rashford is on pace for his best ever goal scoring season. Look for them to finish top 4.

Newcastle

Preseason Prediction – 8th

Current Standings – 3rd

Mildly surprising but not overly so. Since being bought by a Saudi Arabia based group in October 2021. Ownership promised at that time to infuse a lot of money to build the club up to top of the EPL standards. Since their takeover ownership has invested over $200M in player signings and the results are showing. Kieran Trippier and Dan Burn have solidified the defense, and Bruno Guimaraes has made a nice addition in the midfield to pair with Miguel Almiron. I am not sure they have quite the depth to handle the grind down the stretch but they are certainly in the mix for a top 4 or 5 finish.

Nottingham Forest

Preseason Prediction – 19th

Current Standings – 13th

Surprise #7! A team expected to be in the relegation zone is currently quite safe sitting 6 points clear. Since the break they also have a better record than every team below it in the table and the team immediately ahead of them. That’s the good news. As with good news the follow on question typically asks if there is a but in there. And yes there is a but for Forest. They have the second worst goal differential in the league. Its hard to imagine that such a poor differential (-19) won’t catch up to the sooner or later. Now their differential is a bit skewed in three matches all before November where they had defeats by Man C, Leicester, and Arsenal for a combined 15-0. So apparently they have a few matches where they simply get blown out and perhaps that overshadows their overall play. The rest of the way will be interesting to see if Forest can survive.

Southhampton

Preseason Prediction – 16th

Current Standings – 20th

Abysmal by pretty much any measure. Since the break they have gone a horrible 1-0-4 being outscored 8-4 and their lone win was against co-bottom feeder Everton. The hope for them is that their is only 3 points separating last place and 14th. So 7 teams are close enough still to be in danger of relegation. Even a mildly good run of games can boost them out of the zone. But in the end I think they are one of the three that get dropped.

Tottenham

Preseason Prediction – 5th

Current Standings – 5th

Another chip on the bingo card. If it wasn’t for Haaland, Harry Kane would be getting tons of press for a terrific season. And he is having a terrific season having scored 16 times already. In most seasons he’d likely be the Golden Boot leader at this point. The Spurs can still score with the best of them and sit in 3rd for goals scored. To make a move toward the top 4 they are going to have to play better than they have since the break. A weak 2-0-3 isn’t going to cut it. But even if they can’t catch the front runners a Europa League should be in the cards for next season.

West Ham United

Preseason Prediction – 7th

Current Standings – 16th

Surprise #8 is a pretty big drop by the Hammers. In contention last season for a Europa League spot things were looking good at London Stadium. Then somewhere along the way the wheels fell off. Last Saturday they faced off with Everton in what was being billed as a fight of the cellar dwellars. Some fans dug deep into the archives and came up with an interesting story line. Both clubs managers are in the hot seats and some were hoping for a poorly played draw which could have resulted in both managers being fired. The first time in history two managers facing each other got fired in the same day. But alas, the Hammers pulled out the W. My wife watched the game with me and while she isn’t a seriously knowledgeable fan she does understand the game and had a very telling comment during the game. “The speed of play is really slow especially Everton.” Spot on comment right there. At least it moved West Ham up to safety ….for now. I think they survive and just try and put this season behind them.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Preseason Prediction – 11th

Current Standings – 17th

Finishing up with big surprise #9. These guys sit only out of relegation by goal differential. However, since the break they have tallied the most points of any of the bottom 7 teams so they are on the upswing. The key the rest of the way for the Wolves is to ensure that they get points from the rest of the teams in the lower part of the table. Down the stretch you always hope to pick off some odd points here and there against the better teams but where the final standings are made is if you amass as many points as possible off the teams around you in the standings.

So its not the WC but still really good soccer to watch for the next few months!