The Orioles entered play Sunday with an 11-5 record. That had them in first place in the AL East with a 3.5 game lead on the second place Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore was also leading the AL in run differential by a pretty wide margin. We are seeing a lot of good things early on. The questions are, will this continue and what else can be done to improve?

With the usual apologies to former Baltimore Sun columnist and current Baltimore Ravens.com contributor John Eisenberg, here is my version of “Fact & Opinion”, where I look at some early season trends.

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Fact: Manny Machado has a 1225 OPS. His slash line is 397/446/779. His OPS leads all of baseball.

Opinion: If the Orioles stay in this race and are legitimate contenders all year long, Machado will win the AL MVP. With a combination of his stellar defense at a key position and his offensive numbers, he is a guy that will be in the discussion anyway (he was 4th in voting last year, 9th in 2013). If you combine that with an legit contender (something the Os weren’t in 2013 and 2015, when he was top 10 in voting), I think you have a recipe for the award going to Machado.

Fact: Mark Trumbo has a 1.085 OPS so far this year. He is hitting for a high average (381) and showing his usual big time power (667 slugging).

Opinion: So far, Trumbo looks like Nelson Cruz part 2. He has been a great pick up for the team early on. The defense is pretty awful but we knew that would be the case, at least if he stayed in the OF. Trumbo career slash line in the first half is 264/315/503/818. In the second half, it is 242/290/419/709 although last year, he had a better second half than first half.

Fact: Kevin Gausman makes his 2016 debut on Monday vs. the Rays.

Opinion: Gausman is ready to take a big leap forward. His peripherals continue to show a pitcher who is right on the cusp of being really good but he has to put it altogether. The Orioles need him to lead this staff and a be a legit 1 or 2 starter. If he can do that, this team will contend throughout this season, barring a rash of injuries. Gausman was able to go 5.2 innings in his final MiL rehab start but I wouldn’t expect him to be able to go much past 6 innings for a few starts.

Fact: Yovanni Gallardo was put on the 15 day DL yesterday with a shoulder injury. He is getting examined and will have an MRI today.

Opinion: Can’t imagine Gallardo is pitching for the O’s before June 1st and that may be optimistic. You figure he needs to get in a few rehab starts to get his arm strength back. If this isn’t a serious injury, this could be a blessing in disguise, as he got to the team late in the off-season and this may allow him to go throw a lot of innings with no pressure and build his arm up. Of course, if this is serious, he is probably done as an Oriole and since the Orioles shouldn’t have signed him to begin with, this really will look bad. You lose the pick and get nothing out of him? Bad enough you signed him knowing there was an issue but this would really be the icing on the cake.

Fact: Mike Wright makes the start vs. KC today.

Opinion: In his brief ML career (spanning 14 games, 11 starts and 55.2 IP), Wright has a 5.98 ERA, 5.80 FIP, 5.57 xFIP, 5.5 K rate, 3.56 BB rate and 1.62 HR rate. He has also given up 63 hits in those innings. Wright should be the guy sent down for Gausman. Tyler Wilson isn’t anything special but he has better control and command than Wright does and Wright has a high upside bullpen arm and while the Orioles don’t “need” that bullpen arm right now, they could at any moment. Let Wright go down and keep working on things. He can stay a starter for now, since you may need that depth depending on Gallardo and what Wilson does but ultimately, he needs to be in the pen.

Fact: Vance Worley has a career ERA, as a starter, of 3.89 and a 3.77 FIP. That spans 479 innings. He has a career 6.9 K rate, 2.74 BB rate, .83 HR rate and he has an unlucky 322 BABIP to go with that.

Opinion: I have no idea why Buck didn’t start him yesterday and pitched him an inning on Friday night. He clearly should be in the rotation. His career numbers suggest that and he hasn’t looked bad so far this year, considering Showalter stuck with him too long in his first start and he had some umpire and defensive issues in his second start. He has 11 Ks and 3 walks in 10.2 as a starter so far this year. If he keeps that up, he will likely be successful.

Fact: The Orioles bullpen is second in all of baseball in ERA. The BP ERA is 1.62. The White Sox have a 1.60 ERA. They also trail only the WS in BP FIP, which is 2.64.

Opinion: This pen will continue to be elite. Brach, O’Day, Britton, and Givens are extremely strong. Bundy has performed well and McFarland has been great in his role. We will see what happens with Matusz. I expect him to be fine but he is obviously a guy that doesn’t inspire great confidence.

Fact: The Orioles team BB%, offensively, is 8.8%. The last time the Orioles finished with a team BB% of over 8% was in 2009. The outside zone swg% is 28.9% right now. The team hasn’t finished below 31.7% since 2009, when it was under 25%.

Opinion: It is hard for me to believe that these trends will keep up. The contact % is still down (worse than last year) and the history of these hitters suggests they won’t walk much and will swing at bad pitches. That being said, this is the second season under Hitting Coach Scott Coolbaugh and perhaps, this team is starting to buy more into what he wants them to do. Maybe this is like having a new Offensive Coordinator in the NFL. A lot of times, when implementing a new offense, it takes time for the players to adjust. We will see if this continues. If it does, the offensive ceiling for this team is much higher than many (including myself) thought it would be. The O’s are currently second in the AL in runs scored and while many people have associated this team with offense the last few years, it really has been power driven. They are usually middle of the pack in runs scored and in many ways that goes back to the OBP, which is usually one of the worst in the AL. This year, they are first in OBP. A 329 BABIP is helping and that’s not likely sustainable either.

Fact: Pedro Alvarez is off to a slow start. Okay, so maybe slow is being kind. He has a slash line of 118/286/147/433. The good news is he has a 19% walk rate. The bad news is, that hasn’t really mattered.

Opinion: He got into camp late, feels pressure to perform and is off to a slow start. He should show power but if he doesn’t, he is basically a worthless player for us. He doesn’t hit for an average, his career OBP is 309, he is slow and he can’t play the field. If he can’t hit righties well and show power, he won’t be on this team past June 1st. I am optimistic that he will do those things because his career suggests he will but guys have off years and this is a guy who had very little Spring Training and just two years ago, had an OPS barely over 700. Last year, the Orioles cut De Aza early in the season and De Aza could do many more things than Alvarez can and he was paid almost the same money Pedro Alvarez signed for, so there is recent precedent.

Fact: Nolan Reimold only has 22 at bats to start the year but in those at bats, he has a 1.075 OPS.

Opinion: I want to see him in the lineup more. If he stays healthy and gets 350+ at bats, he will have an OPS over 800. He can be what Steve Pearce was in 2014 for us. He is one of the best all around offensive players on this team but he is obviously not known for his reliability.

Fact: Hyun Soo Kim has a 16.7 BB rate and a 1.083 OPS.

Opinion: He may be the greatest player that has ever lived.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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