Hyun Soo Kim: Expectations Going Forward?

When the Baltimore Orioles signed Hyun Soo Kim to a 2 year, $7M contract last December, I was pleased. 

It wasn’t as if I had ever watched Kim have an ab, but the risk was minimal, and his 4,800 career plate appearances in the Korean Baseball Organization indicated he was a guy with plate discipline (clearly a long-running issue with the O’s).

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

While obviously hoping he would perform in the Majors, that (whether he would perform or not) didn’t really factor into my evaluation of the signing. I liked that the O’s were looking somewhat outside the box at obtaining additional depth that had the chance to contribute.

We knew there would be questions.

You start with the fact that the KBO is not MLB.  By most accounts the KBO is around AA baseball. So when evaluating Kim’s KBO production, you had to consider how those numbers would translate. For me, I looked at his numbers over the last 3 years (ages 25-27), and considered what I would anticipate from a player who had similar production at AA Bowie at similar ages.

My back of the napkin estimation was that Kim would have a +/- OPS of .750 in the Majors this year.

You also had other factors to consider.

Not only would the overall talent be better in the Majors vs. whatever Kim had seen previously, another factor there would be the specialty relievers that exist in MLB.

Once the league got a look at Kim, and made their adjustments; would Kim be able to adjust back?

The KBO has a shorter-season (144 games), and ’15 was the first time Kim had played over 140 games (141).  Would he wilt over the longer MLB season in the Summer heat?

While the accommodations are 1st class, the flights are with private planes; there is considerably more travel in MLB vs. the KBO. That increased travel is additional wear and tear.

Then you had to consider the cultural adjustment. South Korea to Charm City is a big change. How would he handle that?

Back on the field, there was a question about his defense. We knew that he was a 4x Golden Glove winner in the KBO, but from the day he signed there were reports that he had questionable range, and a limited arm. The hope was that he would not be a liability in the field.

If he could be a .750 OPS guy, with adequate defense; that was a player who could contribute. That was a player to be somewhat optimistic about.

My optimism was only increasing over the Winter, when it was revealed that Kim had been spending time working out with O’s VP of Baseball Operations Brady Anderson. I thought that time would Brady would only help with Kim’s transition.

Then Spring Training came.

I wasn’t in Sarasota. I wasn’t evaluating Kim in practice, and in the Grapefruit League.

Due to that, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to those that were, particularly the O’s coaching staff.

So when there were near immediate whispers out of Sarasota that Kim was over-matched at this level, that was alarming. Daily we were inundated with comments that he was a mess in LF, and couldn’t hit a ML fastball.

My take at the time was that writing him off after less than 50 Spring Training ab’s was ridiculous. Those ab’s could only tell you so much.

I was concerned about his defense, but figured there was some level of hyperbole in describing his glove. While the coaching staff was uncomfortable with what they were seeing, the O’s International Scouting Department had evaluated him, and pushed the organization to sign him – clearly believing he had a chance. If his defense was an overwhelming issue, you would have thought that would have prevented the signing in the first place.

My overall conclusion was that Kim was pressing to prove himself at this level, and to his new employers.

I came around to thinking it would have been a good thing if he had accepted the demotion to AAA Norfolk. Figuring he would have been able to get his feet wet in the US, against better competition vs. what he had seen previously, but away from the lights of the Majors.

I didn’t fault him at all though when he declined to be sent to the Minors. That was his right.

It was embarrassing when he was booed by some of the Opening Day crowd.

What had he done to deserve that?

Adam Jones was right to call out those O’s fans for that behavior.

The talk from many in April, was that the Orioles were operating with a short-bench. That effectively they were using a 24 man roster.

To me, the decision to limit Kim to 15 ab’s during the Month is on O’s Manager Buck Showalter.

The take from some (including Showalter) is that by limiting his playing time early on, Kim was able to get comfortable without digging a hole. That by becoming comfortable, that put him in a position to produce later.

Maybe there is something to that.
Maybe he was capable of producing from Day 1, and was buried on the bench without reason.

However you look at that, the bottom-line is that when Kim did play, he took advantage of the opportunity. He had 2 hits in his debut vs. Tampa Bay April 10th. He followed that up with 2 bb’s at Boston on the 13th.

He had 35 ab’s in May, 72 ab’s in June, and has had 30 ab’s so far here in July.

As we get to the All-Star break, he has a .329 batting average, .410 on-base %, .454 slugging % (.864 OPS, .379 wOBA, 135wRC+). In 152 ab’s, he has 50 hits, 10 doubles, 3 homers, 18 bb’s, and 22 k’s.

He is playing almost exclusively vs. RHP, as he has just 11 ab’s (0 for 11) vs. lefties.

Defensively, he consistently looks uncomfortable. His UZR/150 is (-10.5), and his DRS number is (-5). On the other-hand, I don’t think he’s killing the O’s with his play in left. Even with a poor first-step, he gets to balls fairly quickly and finds the cut.

Also with Rickard (even though the metrics don’t agree), and Reimold; there are defensive replacements available if Showalter thinks a change is necessary in close and late.

Assuming the hamstring injury yesterday was not significant; what are the right expectations for him going forward this year?

Does he get more time vs. lefties? Does he perform when and if he does?

I’m still wondering about how he will handle the longer MLB season, and the Summer heat. I’m still wondering how he will do when the league has had a longer look at him.

I do believe we will see his power increase. He had 28 bombs in 512 ab’s in the KBO last year (1 homer per 18 ab’s). He’s averaging 1 hr per 51 ab’s so for in the bigs. Look for that ratio to narrow.

On the other-hand, his batting average might be a bit inflated currently.

Most importantly though, I’m confident he will continue to have good ab’s. He takes pitches. He works counts. He is able to extend ab’s through contact. Strikeouts for individual hitters are overrated, but when you have a lineup full of hackers, it isn’t. He gives the O’s lineup something different, by being a guy capable of regular contact.

Instead of crushing the O’s for their rush to judgement evaluation this Spring, let’s give the Front Office kudos for the signing. Kim is part of the reason the O’s are 15 games over .500 at the All-Star break. The O’s FO deserves credit for the signing.

Now Kim gets the 2nd half and continued everyday ab’s to prove what he really is as a ML player, and what the appropriate expectations are for him going forward.