As I write this, the Baltimore Orioles are 46-49. They are 7 games behind the Yankees for the Division lead and 5.5 back of the Twins for the second Wild Card. Currently, the Orioles have 4 teams in front of them for the second WC. Texas is also tied with them at the moment and they are only 1-2 games ahead of the 3 teams directly behind them. In other words, they have a huge mountain to climb if they want to make it back into this playoff race, much less actually the playoffs. They have been a terrible road team this year and they also have a very poor record vs .500 or better teams. Also, their remaining schedule is very tough and filled with a lot of road games, including a long West Coast trip that seemingly always gives them issues. On top of that, we are already seeing the teams ahead of Baltimore adding players (the Houston Astros with their addition of Kazmir and they aren’t done) Add all of that up and I think we have a team that needs to sell.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Now, what is ironic about this team this year is that they have actually been unlucky. The team that everyone said was so lucky in 2012 have seen their fortunes reversed in 2015. They have a +34 run differential. Their current Pythagorean record is 51-44. That would put them .5 game behind Minnesota and 2 behind NY. If that were the case, this article would be about buying. However, ithe pythagorean record is not what counts. While this team is better than their record suggests, and while they have been unlucky; you are what your record says you are and the Orioles record says they are a long shot to make the playoffs as of today. FanGraphs.com currently has the Orioles with a 12.7% chance of making the playoffs. Honestly, I am surprised it is that high but that does speak to their run differential, how they have been unlucky and how there us still a lot of baseball left. Also, no one in the AL is really all that great, so a stretch where they go 15-5 isn’t really out of the question – it is just unlikely. They have lost 15 of the 20 games and have won only one series in that stretch. In those 20 games, the Orioles have only scored 63 runs and 18 of those came in 2 games.

The Orioles have a middling offense (that is getting worse) and a below average starting staff. They do have a top 3 bullpen but a lot of that has to do with O’Day and Britton. They have other good arms out there but no one you feel overly confident about. The defense is, of course, very good and that helps and give you some hope that run prevention will continue to get better as the starters(especially Tillman) continue to get better but I just don’t think this is our year. Sometimes, you have seasons like this. Things go wrong, you get bad breaks, etc…It just so happens that it is happening to the O’s at a time where they are going to lose a lot of players off of the team and the future outlook of the organization isn’t all that great.

So, this leaves me thinking that the Orioles need to sell. Right now, they have a very poor farm system. The system looks more bleak now than it did in the off-season and in the off-season, it was ranked in the bottom third by many people. But we have seen Dylan Bundy essentially get shut down for the year(AGAIN!) and Hunter Harvey is probably on his road to TJ surgery, although we don’t know that definitively yet. The Orioles two best prospects are Chance Sisco and Jomar Reyes. One is 20, the other is 19. They aren’t close to the majors and while the upside is there for them to be impact bats, they are essentially lottery tickets right now. The Orioles just spent their First Round pick on DJ Stewart, a college OFer who should move through the system quickly and then we can see what his talent is like once he gets up to AA and AAA and eventually here(hopefully). He is off to a slow start in Aberdeen but has gotten better lately, so hopefully that continues. I also think the Orioles have some pieces for the pen. Guys like Givens and Wright could be late inning guys. You also have Christian Walker, who has some Lyle Overbay type upside and could be a valuable player for little money for 3-6 years. You also have Dariel Alvarez, who this organization loves. We will see on him. I am all for giving him a chance this year if you sell but I am not convinced he is an everyday player by any means.

Generally speaking though, that’s about it. Not a whole lot to fall back on and while there are some intriguing prospects in the system, it is just so early to tell if they will become anything.

On top of all of this, you are losing a huge chunk of your team this off-season. Chris Davis, Wieters, Chen, O’Day, Norris, Pearce, et al. They are all Free Agents. You also should be losing Hunter and Matusz, two guys they paid too much money for this year. I would hope they don’t make that same mistake.

When you combine the idea of losing a lot of players, currently being far out of the playoffs, and a poor farm system/future outlook, you have a recipe for selling.

On the bright side, you do have a lot coming back as well. As of today, you have a rotation of Tillman, Jimenez, Gausman and Gonzalez. You have an elite reliever in Britton back. You have one of the top five players in the game (who hopefully will be signed to an 8-10 year deal in the off-season) in Manny Machado. Schoop is one of the best young second baseman in the league and Jones is an above CFer. You also have a good glove man at SS in Hardy. Joseph looks like a starting C in this league, so he is a nice piece to have as well. This team isn’t entering the off=season with the cupboard bare but this isn’t a team that is likely going to go out and spend huge money either, so you need to bring in talent that is cheaper that can grow with this franchise. Now, I say that and it sounds like I am saying to trade our guys for only ML ready(or close to ML ready) prospects. That’s not the case. That would be ideal but probably unrealistic. We may be able to get a few guys like that but the likelihood is that we end up with something similar to what Oakland got for Kazmir. They got two guys that are essentially Cisco and Reyes. If we can add 4-5 more guys like that, I am all for it. I just want talent brought in.

To me, the question isn’t do you sell. The question is who do you sell? According to reports we have seen several times over the last year(most notably a few times by MASN’s Roch Kubatko), the Orioles can’t offer Chen a QO (qualifying offer). If that is the case, you really have to trade him. The same goes for O’Day. While the Orioles can offer O’Day a QO, it is doubtful they would want to be on the hook for a 15 million dollar set up man. So, since you can’t get a draft pick for either player, trading them making the most sense. It is however likely that you could offer Davis and Wieters a QO, see them turn it down and the team end up with a pick. That is nice to know so you have that in your back pocket. That being said, I would be surprised if the O’s couldn’t get more value than a pick for either of those guys. Plenty of contenders need power. Some of the teams need an upgrade at C. There are just too many eager buyers out there to not get good enough value to make moves.

By the way, some may be thinking, “Let’s keep these guys and not trade them. Let’s go for it again in 2016 with the same group of guys. After all, if this team is just unlucky, that should turn around next year and the O’s will be legit contenders again, right?” Well, there is some merit to that. But, that is assuming a few things. The first thing is that these players want to sign here long term. It also assumes the club wants them back for the contract they will likely receive. It also assumes that the Orioles can’t trade them and then sign them in the off=season. The Orioles have done that before (Ponson), so it is not like it would set some brand new precedent and is totally unheard of.

Getting past those guys, who else do you consider? Britton has been an elite reliever this year but he is still “just a reliever” and if you could get a few Eduardo Rodriguez type talents(Miller fetched one of them last year and he was a rental), those guys would likely end up being more valuable than Britton, assuming they develop. It would be tough to move Britton but you do have some young power arms in the minors and you could get more in other deals, so you may not miss him as much as we think. You also have vets like Hardy and Jimenez. The Mets want an upgrade at SS, would you move Hardy there? If you could move Jimenez and most of his contract, would you do that for future payroll flexibility? Chris Tillman has been pitching out of his mind in his last 5 starts and he has a lot of service time left. Do you see if a team values him more than they should?

The Orioles could be a one stop shop this deadline. They have a lot to offer. They have bats, good starters and excellent relievers, which are things contenders are always looking for. About half of baseball in realistically in a playoff race and some of the teams that aren’t, don’t have to sell or won’t be selling anyways. So, the time to strike is now.

Dan Duquette has a chance to set this team up for the long term if he goes out and makes the proper trades. Will all the trades work out? Probably not. But if you can add 5-10 new players to the system, your odds of bringing in some value to this team are pretty good IMO.

And if not, all you have done is “give up” on on what is likely going to be non playoff contending season and saved a bunch of money which hopefully they put back into the organization in other ways, while also setting yourself up for a better draft pick next June. Would that be the best scenario? No, of course not but as a worst case, its not awful either.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

X