As we get closer to the start of Training Camp, my fellow BSL Ravens Analyst Will Stokes and I come together to discuss several current topics.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Question 1: Are the Ravens being a little over-hyped? Peter King’s #1 Power Ranking, good notes consistently around the league. Joe Flacco might be a punch bag, but is the talent on this team really that good? 

Kough: Can the Ravens ever be “over hyped”? I mean this is a team that has thrived over the course of the entire NFL presence as being a definitive under dog that gets no respect. They have one of the best GM’s, a very good (if not great coach), and won with and without a franchise QB. To me, this says that attention being paid by both good football minds (this may be a slight stretch for King) and good media people (definitely King) are recognizing the potential benefit of touting the Ravens. They see the opportunity and the talent and they want to look good at the end of the year.

This team is talented though. If the WRs, and Perriman in particular, can make an immediate impact, there isn’t a clear cut group that’s a weakness at all. Not only is this a great formula for success, but it’s one of the best and easiest ways to beat the likes of Bill Belicheck/Tom Brady combo. I really don’t worry about much in the AFC. I think the Ravens can shut down Bell on the ground and force Pitt to be predictable. No one takes the Bengals seriously. Denver is moving towards run heavy which is Baltimore’s strength. And I think with a healthy secondary Brady fears us way more than we fear him. This is a very talented and deep team that is well coached. 

Stokes: The Ravens certainly have the tools to make a Super Bowl run this year, but there are too many unknowns heading into the season to definitively place them among the contenders. Will the Ravens still have a top 10 offense after replacing Torrey Smith with a rookie? Can the Ravens still be one of the best pass rushing teams in the NFL after losing Pernell McPhee and Haloti Ngata? Will the secondary that struggled last year improve? And how will Trestman perform as an offensive coordinator?

That said, this Ravens team is filthy talented. They might have the best linebacking corp in the entire NFL and a top-5 offensive line. And those strengths can make mediocre units look better than they are and help cover up true weaknesses. I guess this is a long roundabout way of saying that as of now, the Ravens should not be considered as good as the Patriots or the Seahawks. But if uncertainties heading into the season breaks the right way, I could see the team going 12-4 and winning the Super Bowl. And if they break the wrong way, I still see them making the playoffs.

Question 2:  What’s the best positional group going into this year? Who is it important has the best year as a group? Who do you expect to be the best positional group at the end of the year?

Kough: I think the most talented group has to be the offensive line. For once we have depth there. We can replace the interior guys with Urschel who will likely be starting for us one way or another in a year and Yanda played a very good right tackle when called upon. We have balance in that there is a mix of vets and young guys. And we’ve got cohesion. And if you believe that Monroe’s issue was health, this team oddly has the room to improve from this area. It’s not a coincidence that Forsett was so good last year. I think this group can be dominant again.

I think the most important year comes from the LB corps though. Suggs/Dumervil have to stay potent. But we need to see improvements from Mosley in the passing game. His ability to take out a TE or a RB in the passing game will go a long way in improving our pass defense. A lot of this hinges on Smith and Means development. The Ravens have showed an ability to develop these guys and I think it’ll be important to see solid years from them or really good years from Suggs and Dumervil. But I think this will be the lynchpin group for the quality of our defense in terms of player development growth and impact on the defense.

It was a close second for the secondary (no pun intended) here. Health is key though.  If we have Webb/Arrington/Smith all healthy all year (and you really can’t expect that) this will be a top 3 defense. Maybe even higher. But I’d prefer to bet on development growth from Mosley than health from Webb/Smith.

By year’s end, the DL could be our most talented group. The upside with Davis is there. Can Pees contain it? Will KLM emerge? Urban was getting rave reviews to start the year last year. Canty is a veteran presence. And I’m a 100% believe in Williams and Jernigan. Our track record for these positions is strong recently and I think Davis / Jernigan/ Williams could be the best 3 man front of a 3-4 to start next year. And yes, that’s with all due respect to the Richardson / Wilkerson combo in New York. 

Stokes: With maybe the exception of the offensive line, the Ravens linebackers are head and shoulders above every other positional unit on the team. The Ravens were the only team in the NFL to have two players, Elvis Dumervil and C.J. Mosley, on an all-pro team in 2014. That alone would have been enough, but Terrell Suggs and Daryl Smith also play for the unit. In my mind, it’s the best linebacking corp in the NFL, and definitely the best unit on the team. And will remain so throughout the year.

The positional unit that’s most important for the team is the secondary. While the Ravens have a worrying lack of proven pass catchers, their offensive line and a strong running game will help ease the pain of the Ravens younger wide receivers taking a bigger role within the offense. The secondary, on the other hand, was the team’s biggest weakness of 2014 and was repeatedly exposed even with the Ravens great pass rush. With the Ravens losing several key parts of last year’s pass rush, the struggling unit has a much smaller margin of error in 2015. The secondary needs to improve and stay healthy for the team to sport anything close to an above average defense.

Question 3: Outside of the QB, what player do you think will showcase the most improvement and be the one guy at the end of the year that we’ll be looking back and saying he made all the difference and will launch his name into the national conversation for his play?

Kough: The easy choice is Perriman, right? So I’ll take a pass on him. Matt Elam? I kid, I kid. Mosley is already too recognized. Jimmy Smith maybe, but he’s already made a name for himself too. Maxx Williams could be really interesting based on the word about his hands, could make for a potent Flacco combo, we haven’t see really good catch radius and hands for a while. I’d say Jernigan, but I don’t think he’s going to be quite an every down type player this year. I think he might be one away or may never be one (given his injury history and the reason he slid in the draft).

I think its Brandon Williams. He already made huge strides last year and nose tackle is a position that if you can start to get some pressure, you gain a lot of attention quickly. It creates a hinge point for the defense. The narrative is there now that Ngata is gone. If Williams can (and I think he will) register 7+ sacks, his name should rise to Vince Wilfork type status by the end of the year. 

Stokes: There are a lot of good options here. Timmy Jernigan is talented and will have an expanded role on the defensive line. Breshad Perriman will feature prominently in a playoff bound offense in a skills position. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them got national attention.

But to me, the obvious choice here is Jimmy Smith. Smith is a top flight talent at cornerback that hasn’t received as much national attention because of injuries. He has already been recognized by some national writers as one of the most underrated cornerbacks in the NFL. Given the subpar surrounding talent in the Ravens secondary, Smith could single-handedly make or break the season. If Smith manages to shut down great receivers, like AJ Green and Antonio Brown, in important division games, we’ll be sure to hear his name come up on ESPN.

Question 4: Do you expect changes from Trestman and the offense this year? What are your expectations statistically? And what are you expectations for a general game viewing perspective?

Kough: This is the part I’m the most excited for. Baltimore has wanted a rah rah guy on offense and they finally got him in Trestman. I think he’s the not crazy version of Zorn. He’s hands on, I think he’s a good fit for Joe and I think he’s a great fit for our young WRs. (Check back with me on this at the end of camp because this is all conjecture based on reports out of OTAs).

I expect to see at least 4,000 yards, 25 TDs and 10 or less INTs. Flacco was remarkably close to that last year and I do expect us to pass a bit more if only in plays to the RBs this year. I guess I’d say 4,400 30 12 is my expectation for Joe. I’d expect us to be top 10 in the running game this year. Very high YPA again. And Trestman is actually known for his PA passes. He had a very high percentage in Chicago and what’s interesting is that they had no running game. Joe could get really really potent this year with that help.

I think we see more screens, more play action passes, more of the same running scheme, but a more aggressive offensive generally. I think we’re finally going to see easier reads and I think we’re going to see Joe make fewer bone headed decisions. It seems like Trestman is the type of guy that knows how to coach a QB inside the helmet as much as inside the pads. And I think it’s a recipe for a huge impact. 

Stokes: Trestman has said he doesn’t not expect the Ravens offense much next year, which is good, because the Ravens just had one of the best offensive seasons in their team’s history. I expect Perriman to be slotted into a lot of Torrey Smith’s old deep routes and the zone blocking scheme to remain the same. There will probably be changes on the periphery: Justin Forsett will be more involved in the passing game, not just because Trestman has favored it in the past, but also because the current lack of proven pass catchers on the team. But other than that, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.

I do expect a slight drop off from last year’s numbers. Steve Smith is a year older and Torrey Smith is gone, which makes it hard for me to believe the offense will actually improve. But the Ravens have fantastic continuity in their offensive line, running back, and quarterback. This is a solid bedrock for a very effective offense. I would expect the team to be about 12 or 13th in offensive DVOA with an improved running game.

The team is gonna be really fun watch next year.

Jordan Kough
Jordan Kough

Ravens Analyst

Jordan Kough is a graduate of University of Maryland, Baltimore County. He’s a long standing Ravens and Orioles fan of many years. He grew up just north of Baltimore and likes the statistical analysis of games as much as watching games themselves.

X