After a bit longer layoff than usual to accommodate the WC, UCL is back starting next week. No more room for errors now. Its the knockout round where off nights can end a teams chances. And per usual, the teams that advanced out of the Group Stage were mostly as expected. And like every year, there are a few surprises. This time around Club Brugge, Benfica, and FC Porto were the sides to advance while Atletico Madrid, Bayern Leverkusen, and Juventus failed to make it. Interestingly it was Group B that provided the most surprises. Atletico and Leverkusen were both expected to advance with Brugge and Porto going home. Well the script got flipped 180 degrees in that one!
The Round of 16 first legs will be held the next two weeks with the return ties played in the first two weeks of March. The quarter-finals legs will be played in April and the semi-final legs played in May leading to the final on June 10 in Istanbul. Although it is unknown at this time if this will be impacted by the devastating earthquake in Turkey.
As a reminder, UCL has previously gone away from the goals away tiebreaker, so again this season the knockout stages will be decided strictly on aggregate goals. If a tie exists at the end of regulation of the second leg, teams will play a 30 minute extra time period. If still tied they will go to penalty kicks. Also, players who completed transfers in the winter transfer window are eligible to play during the remainder of UCL regardless of any participation in the league this season with another club. With that lets take a look at the 8 ties and what to expect.
AC Milan vs Tottenham Hotspurs
Interesting storyline in this tie. Spurs manager, Antonio Conte, was the manager of Milan’s cross town rivals, Inter Milan during the 2019 and 2020 seasons so he is quite familiar with Milan. Both the city and AC Milan potentially giving the Spurs a slight advantage? The Spurs come in on a 6-0-2 run including a 1-0 win over EPL giant Manchester City. Spur’s striker Harry Kane is having another terrific season having scored 17 goals in their 22 EPL matches. The only reason he isn’t leading the league in scoring is some dude named Erling Haaland (more on him in a bit). Kane also just broke the all time scoring record for the Spurs and is in superb form. Then there is AC Milan coming in on a horrific 0-1-5 run and having given up 13 goals in 4 straight defeats. The good news for AC, I guess, is that its hard to do any worse.
Prediction – Tottenham advances
Paris Saint Germian – Bayern Munich
Such a shame that two of the top clubs have to face off in the Round of 16 but such is the luck of the draw. But oh how the advertisers love this one. This is must see tv for soccer fans. This is the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons that these two clubs have met each other in the knockouts. Each time the matches have been intense down to the final whistle and expect more of the same. These are just two teams loaded with talent and experience in big time matches. Both these teams are first in their respective domestic leagues and playing well. Bayern comes in on a 3-3-0 roll while PSG has gone 3-1-2 in their last 6. Oddsmakers have these two teams as the second and third favorites to win it all. Unfortunately, one of them is going home quite early. Bayern cruised through their 6 group stage matches winning all 6. PSG on the other hand played only ok and has had some infighting over the last several months. They do have the best overall player on the planet in Kylian Mbappe and when he is at his peak he is just about unstoppable.
Prediction – Truly a toss up. But push comes to shove I think Bayern has a more balanced roster and moves on.
Club Brugge – Benfica
A really interesting tie in that neither side was predicted to advance out of their group and now one of them is guaranteed of making the quarter-finals. In this case both teams were lucky in the draw! That doesn’t happen very often. Scott Parker has taken over as the Club Brugge coach and they have gone 1-4-1 under him. Not exactly the start he was looking for, Perhaps they can turn things around against Benfica who have been on a stellar run going 5-1-1 of late. Teams typically like to start these formats on the road. Play somewhat conservatively and try and steal an away point. However, in this situation I think Brugge is better off starting at home. They need the emotion of the crowd to lift them up. I guess the bright side is that they haven’t been losing much either.
Prediction – Benfica is better and moves on.
Dortmund – Chelsea
When the draw occurred the excitement was immense. Two huge clubs with a great story line. Dortmund is well known for the willingness and ability to bring up and develop young players. Like they did with Christian Pulisic who they subsequently sold to Chelsea. Now they are in the midst of developing another outstanding young American player in Gio Reyna. So the buzz was starting, two young Americans off the USMNT recent strong showing at the WC facing off against each other. Alas, though, Pulisic suffered a knee injury and was out for an extended period of time thought to miss the Round of 16. However, there is some hope now that he is progressing ahead of schedule and could be available for the second leg. Reyna on the other side has been on a superb run of form having scored 3 goals in his last 4 appearances for the German side. Dortmund sits 3rd in the Bundesliga a single match out of first place and are on a 5-0-1 run. Chelsea has not been playing good soccer at all and come in 9th in the EPL and on a poor 1-2-3 run, To make matters worse they have only scored 5 goals in their last 11 matches. Yes they have been crippled by the injury bug this season but still that play isn’t cutting it.
Prediction – Dortmund. Chelsea has some talent still but they haven’t shown it of late.
Liverpool – Real Madrid
What a difference a year makes. What should be a match that has fans drooling over has lost a lot of luster of late. Liverpool is having the worst season (10th in the EPL) and have not played well of late. A 1-2-3 run just isn’t cutting it and Red fans are getting impatient to the point where there are even calls to have Jurgen Klopp removed as their manager. Real sit 2nd in La Liga and come in with a 4-1-1 stretch. Yet somehow Liverpool is still favored by odds makers. To help things a bit though, Liverpool has a match Sunday against Everton and should be able to build a little momentum. They still have Mo Salah and Diogo Jota and Virgil Van Dijk are returning from injuries so help may be on the way. Real still has Luka Modric running the middle of the field and has hardly slowed at all even though he’s 37. This could end up being a terrific matchup IF Liverpool can turn it back on.
Prediction – Real Madrid (If its close goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois can be a difference maker)
Eintracht Frankfurt – Napoli
The German side has been hot lately going 3-3-0 and Randal Kolo Muani, the French striker has scored 6 goals in their last 4 matches. Goals are tough to come by at this stage so having a hot foot is a big boost. But Napoli sit atop the Serie A and come in on terrific form. They are 5-1-0 of late and lead the Italian league in goals scored and fewest goals allowed resulting in a +36 goal differential in 21 matches. When you score an average of over a goal and a half per game more than your opponents you don’t lose very often. Well Napoli has but a single loss in their Serie A campaign. So hot striker meet stingy defense. Something has to give here. But push comes to shove give a nod to the defense.
Prediction – Napoli advances.
Leipzig – Manchester City
Leipzig has gone unbeaten in their last 18 matches. That’s some pretty good form and they find themselves down in 4th in the Bundesliga. And they have been doing it with a tough defense to crack having allowed 24 goals in their 19 matches, good for third fewest in the league. In a league known for scoring that’s solid work. But alas they have to face Manchester City. The Citizens sit 2nd in the EPL. While they have allowed a few more goals than you’d like (21 in 21 matches) they are scoring at a crazy rate (53 goals) and have the best pure striker in the world in Haaland. He is on pace to break all kinds of EPL scoring records this season and already has 25 goals. He’s big, technically solid, and a freaking clinical finisher. They have only played .500 soccer the last several weeks (3-0-3) but don’t be fooled. They are still a very dangerous team and the odds on favorite to win the title.
Prediction – Man City
Inter Milan – Porto FC
Inter sits second in the Serie A and are on a 5-0-1 tear. They have a typical solid defense first and counter out of the back but they are deadly in their attacks sitting second in league goals with 41 (behind only Napoli’s 51). But they have to face a surprisingly good Porto side who sit second in the Portuguese First Division having scored 45 goals while allowing a mere 11 in their 19 matches to-date. Certainly Inter plays in a much tougher league. The interesting thing to see in this matchup is just how good Porto really is versus how much they are winning based on lower competition. But its also hard to find fault with a team that comes in on a 6-0-0 stretch, weaker competition or not!
Prediction – Few picked Porto to advance but the did so winning their Group. But it was one of the weaker groups and this is the end of the line for them. Inter moves ahead.
So the next month or so is going to have some terrific soccer to watch and once again matches in the US will be shown on Paramount+ and Univision.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.