10 Men On Fire

While Orioles pitching has vastly outperformed expectations, their 4-8 record is right on the 54-win pace we all accepted *before* sitting down to watch the 2022 product. All along, the plot of this story is about growth, and most of that growing is meant to happen off-screen in the minors. Today, I’ll present 10 upper-minors players off to a hot start. Among those included are Grayson Rodriguez and Hudson Haskin, both of whom were recently covered by Bob Phelan. I’ll take a different perspective than Bob when discussing them.

PITCHERS

Grayson Rodriguez, 22 (AAA)
14.1 IP, 1.26 ERA, 14.44 K/9, 1.26 BB/9

We went into 2022 assuming Kyle Bradish would be the first pitching prospect to matriculate. Rodriguez might be worming his way into the lead. The prospect himself reportedly would like to build to a 100-pitch count before promotion, but I have doubts he’ll be given that much leeway at all in 2022. A lot of teams are only asking 60 to 75 pitches from their top prospects in their debut. It’s easy enough to manage those workloads when winning isn’t a priority.

I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t have good instincts for Orioles decision-making yet. Other orgs would be looking to promote Rodriguez after one more Triple-A start – assuming he’s just as dominant as his first three. Besides managing workload, he’s not getting anything from these appearances. He ought to be challenged for developmental purposes, and he might as well make as many starts as possible in the Majors. They’ve already eked out a seventh-season of club control, and the Super-2 deadline is ages from now.

Kyle Bradish, 25 (AAA)
9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 2.00 BB/9

Good results aside, Bradish actually does have something to work on in the minors – inducing more whiffs. His 9.6 percent swinging strike rate is downright pedestrian. He managed a better rate last season (11.6% SwStr%), one that qualified as merely decent. Bradish is trending towards a back-of-the-rotation outcome at the moment. That said, we’re talking about two starts after a decent showing in 2021. As of today, at least another handful of Triple-A starts seems merited.

Ryan Watson, 24 (AA)
8 IP, 0.00 ERA, 11.25 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

I have limited information about Watson and the next two pitchers. Watson was a 39th-round pick by the Dodgers in 2016 and later signed with the Orioles in 2020 as a non-drafted free agent. Googling “Ryan Watson scouting report” yields this unhelpful video. What we do know is he’s made a pair of perfect four-inning appearances. He struck out 10 of 24 batters faced.

Easton Lucas, 25 (AA)
3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 18.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

Lucas, a southpaw, has a little more information floating out in the ether. The Orioles acquired him in the Jonathan Villar. While he doesn’t look like much from a traditional scouting perspective, he’s a spin-rate darling – especially his fastball. The most recent velocity report I have on him is from 2019 when he was sitting 88-92. He featured a near-elite 19.4 percent swinging strike rate in High-A last season. He’s old for his levels and will be Rule 5 eligible next winter. I suspect we might see him this year.

Nick Vespi, 26 (AAA)
6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 13.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

Vespi’s been with the Orioles since the 2015 draft. He’s approaching minor league free agency. After a strong start for Norfolk, including a couple saves, he is well on his way to making the roster later this season. Another southpaw with ground ball tendencies and scant public scouting reports, Vespi seemingly has the raw stuff to be a high leverage reliever. He’ll need to overcome errant command.

HITTERS

Hudson Haskin, 23 (AA)
27 PA, 4 HR, .560/.593/1.160

Sometimes, everything a hitter touches turns to gold. Already this season, Haskin has a triple-double and a triple-homer game. These are rare feats at any level and speak to his power potential. He’s actually working through the middle of the field right now despite a pull-happy history. Perhaps a more balanced approach is the key to unlocking above average power for Haskin. He won’t maintain a .600 ISO or .769 BABIP. Obviously. Hopefully, he’ll improve upon a 29.6 percent strikeout rate as those other rates regress.

Jordan Westburg, 23 (AA)
49 PA, 4 HR, .282/.429/.641

Entering the season, many of us wondered which of Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, or Joey Ortiz would win the race to the Majors. Westburg has an early lead. He’s working counts like a champ while jumping on mashable pitches. At this rate, he’ll be in Triple-A by mid-May. His discipline leads to more strikeouts than are necessary for his contact profile, but that’s a small price to pay if the quality of his contact continues to play up.

Adam Hall, 22 (AA)
44 PA, 5 SB, .342/.432/.395

Hall’s profile isn’t especially beloved in today’s game. He has a little too much swing-and-miss for his current lack of power. He could try to put on weight to add pop, but that might cost him his above average speed. His wheels have sustained his career via consistently above average BABIPs. He’ll spray the ball on the ground to all fields and is currently tracking as a utility fielder – perhaps not dissimilar to Jorge Mateo with more singles and fewer extra base hits.

Jahmai Jones, 24 (AAA)
56 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .261/.393/.413

Another utility fielder, Jones is reminiscent of the many players who make a million in career earnings while spending most of their time in Triple-A. Last season, he posted a league average batting line in Triple-A and looked painfully overmatched in the Majors. He constantly fell behind in the count, leading to a 36 percent strikeout rate despite only 9.1 percent swinging strike rate (i.e. on par with 20% K% hitters). The outcomes range from Quad-A to second division starter. He’s probably already an upgrade on Rougned Odor and Mateo.

Terrin Vavra, 25 (AAA)
63 PA, 1 SB, .327/.435/.423

Earlier today, Vavra landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain of unknown* severity. Prior to that, he was on track to debut as soon as this month. He’s a passable utility fielder who fits best at second base. A left-handed hitter with plus discipline and contact skills, many around the game expect him to have a long career in the Majors – even if he doesn’t exceed 400 plate appearances very often.

*Unknown to us. The team and player presumably already know the grade of strain. Hamstring strains are one of those things you can almost self-diagnose as they happen. Speaking from personal experience.