10% Of The Season In The Books, Thoughts?

With this afternoon’s 7-5 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Baltimore Orioles improved to 9-7 on the year. With 16 games in the books, the O’s have basically already played 10% of their 2013 schedule. What have we learned so far?

Going into today, the O’s ranked:

12th in Runs
9th in Batting Average
12th in On-Base %
6th in Slugging %
16th in ERA
25th in Quality Starts
12th in WHIP
14th in Batting Average Against

Let’s go around the diamond, and look at some of the roster individually.

Matt Wieters – We’ve seen a continuation of his Gold Glove defense, with him throwing out 7 of 9 would be base-stealers. After posting an OPS of .715 vs. RHP last year, Wieters is just 6 for 35 vs. RH’s so far to start ’13. His overall walk (7) to k (11) ratio is good to see.

Chris Davis – In 55 ab’s, Davis already has 12 extra-base hits. Last year he had 37 bb’s to 169 k’s. With his power barrage to begin ’13, opposing pitchers are being more careful with him. Davis has accumulated 9 walks, against just 13 k’s. He will have stretches where he misses everything, and that ratio jumps; but it is encouraging right now. His defense at 1st has been fine.

Alexi Casilla – With his hit in Game 1 vs. the Dodgers, Casilla has run his hitting streak to 4 games. On the year, Casilla has had just 22 ab’s – but his .304 on-base % looks right in-line with his career average (.305).

Ryan Flaherty – Brian Roberts early injury created an opportunity for Flaherty, which Ryan did not take advantage of.  Just 2 for his first 28, Flaherty has struck out 11 times while not walking once. He is clearly struggling against off-speed offerings. One positive we’ve seen from him is improvement at 2nd.

JJ Hardy – Hardy’s homer today ate into the Dodgers early lead. His double to RCF Thursday night was also good to see. We feel one of the things he did best in ’11, was taking pitches on the outer-half into that right-center gap. Which in-turn gave him more pitches in the inner-half to turn on. This lineup needs his bat. Defensive ratings over 162 games only mean so much, so ratings over 16 games mean even less. That said, his current negative UZR/150 is interesting. To the eye, he has been the same Gold Glove caliber SS we’ve grown accustomed to over the last two years.

Manny Machado – 66 games into his Major League career, Machado has established himself as the premier defensive 3rd baseman in the game (well, outside of Longoria). His bat has yet to get going, and if his on-base % stays under .300 much longer – he will have to be moved down in the lineup. Showalter has indicated he might like to see Machado be more aggressive at the plate.

Nate McLouth – Among some O’s fans there was trepidation that McLouth would completely fall on his face this year. Based on what we’ve seen so far, I don’t think that is likely. He looks like he will continue to play a good LF (albeit with a weak arm), get on-base at a good clip (currently 8 walks against just 6 k’s), and steal some bases (3 steals to date). While he has yet to homer, he does have 4 doubles. I believe his power production will be similar to what we saw from him with the O’s last year.

Nolan Reimold – Reimold was limited to just 16 games in ’12. After Game 16 today in ’13, Reimold kidded he was happy to have made it to this part of the year. Every day he is part of the line up is a win. His bb (5) to k (15) numbers will improve. With homers in his last two games, his OPS is now up to .761 despite the slow start. Against LHP, Showalter has shown a preference of playing Reimold in LF over Pearce. Reimold has stated that it has been an adjustment getting used to DH.

Adam Jones – Just like last year, Jones is off to a strong offensive  start (.980 OPS in April ’12, currently .914 OPS to begin ’13). Jones has played every game, and has hits in 14 of the 16 games. The production is the current positive. The negative is that he won’t continue to bat .358, and his on-base % (.377) is entirely driven by the batting average. Jones currently has just 2 walks, against 14 k’s. My position with Jones’ defense has always been that he is not as good as the Gold Glove accolades, nor as poor as the advanced defensive metrics indicate. I don’t care about Jones dropping a ball. It’s not because he blows bubbles, it’s a fluke that is part of the game. I don’t care about him misplaying a short hop. I do care about the play we say Thursday night, where he went home instead of hitting the cut-off. That is game awareness, and not acceptable.

Nick Markakis – Markakis looks locked in offensively, similar to how he looked over the 2nd half of ’12 – his best stretch of play since his sensational 2008 season. He already has 5 multi-hit games, and is reaching base 38% of the time. With this approach, he looks capable of competing for a batting title. His .444 Slugging percentage is right in-line with his career averages, even though we are not seeing the doubles which defined the early part of his career. That is probably an aberration of these initial 63 ab’s, which will adjust going forward. For a guy that used to run pretty well, he is now closer to lumbering. The defensive metrics have not liked Markakis’ play in RF for several years. Last year I thought you could argue with the abdomen injury, followed by the wrist and thumb injuries; that the aliments were impacting his defense. With Markakis currently healthy, I was hoping to see a return of the superior defensive player Markakis used to be. Going to be very difficult for him to again ever be even above-average if he can’t regain some of his foot-speed and lateral movement.

Taylor Teagarden – Figures to be playing tonight vs. LA. To date, has had just 3 ab’s on the year. I’d like to see him play enough to help keep Wieters rested.

Steve Pearce – Pearce started the year 0-13, but has gone 3 for 7 in the last two games. He’s being used exclusively at DH. Interestingly he was not used against Matt Moore on the 17th, but was used against David Price the next day. It’s good for Pearce that he is showing life, as the O’s were probably on the verge of a roster move.

Jason Hammel – After this afternoon, Hammel has now started 4 games. We have yet to see the overpowering 2 seam fastball that made Hammel so deadly last year. He has gone 6 innings in each of his starts, but has yet to work past 6.2 ip. After allowing 9 homers in 118 ip last year, he has now allowed 4 in under 25 this year. The k’s per ip are down. After allowing the 1st inning homer today (and throwing 30+ pitches in the inning), I was impressed that Hammel was able to do enough to keep the O’s in the game. However, the O’s need more from him. It is hard to imagine Baltimore accomplishing their goals, if Hammel is not really leading the staff.

Wei-Yin Chen – Chen makes his 4th start tonight. In his 3 previous starts, he has pitched a total of 18 innings. His K/9 is down from last year, but he has struck out 9, while walking just 3. He is using his change-up more this year. Outside of the k’s, his numbers look pretty similar across the board to last year. He should continue to be a reliable starter.

Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez’s first two starts of the year were both quality outings. His 3rd start saw him allow 3 homers in 5.2 innings, but even in that game, he found a way to give the O’s a chance. LH hitters are not doing much against him. RH hitters have elevated numbers, with the last start having a lot do with that. He has 9 walks, against 9 k’s. He is certainly in-line for another handful of starts.

Chris Tillman – There was talk all Winter that Tillman was a candidate for regression, and that is what we’ve seen so far on the year. None of his 3 starts have been particularly effective, and he has yet to go longer than 5.1 ip. However, it should be mentioned that his Spring Training was out of whack, and he didn’t have an abundance of work. Out-of-options, he is not leaving the roster anytime soon. That said, with the O’s attempting to again contend, the leash to stay in the rotation is not going to be very long. Maybe another couple of starts. If it becomes necessary to remove him from the rotation, maybe you see him and McFarland switch rolls. While I didn’t expect Tillman to be quite as good as he was during his 15 starts of 2012, I do expect him to be a productive starter.

Jake Arrieta – The enigma that is Jake Arrieta has continued to be on full display through Arrieta’s initial 3 starts of 2013. Each start has been exactly 5 innings. Each start Arrieta has shown his stuff, and trouble sustaining it. He’s walked 11 in those 15 innings. I believe in Arrieta’s arm. I believe in Arrieta’s talent. Reading and listening to Arrieta’s comments, I see a guy that has matured mentally. Still, I can’t say I have confidence in his ability to give the O’s a chance to win every 5th day. At this point, he is on a start-to-start audition to stay in the rotation. I’m rooting for him. If he has to be removed from the rotation, I still hope the O’s can get something out of the ability he does have. If he has to leave the rotation, I hope he goes directly into the AAA bullpen. While Arrieta’s issues with runners on base are well documented I still feel Arrieta could be overpowering working an inning at a time.

Jim Johnson – Through 9 innings, Johnson has yet to allow an er, while racking up 7 saves. He has 8 k’s in those 9 innings, but his GB% is currently at 55%, after being above 60% the last two seasons. That is nitpicking, as he has firmly established himself as one of the truly elite closers in the game.

Darren O’Day – O’Day is allowing less than a hit per IP, with nearly a K per IP. After appearing in 69 games last year, O’Day has already appeared in 9 games this season.

Brian Matusz – After allowing a run in first outing of the year, Matusz has not been scored on in his last 6 times out. Lefties are 1 for 10 vs. Brian, but RH hitters are just 1 for 8. My Wife Laura does not follow baseball at-all, but watching the game this afternoon, she noted how much more ‘relaxed’ Matusz looks in relief vs. as a starter. It really is that apparent. Out of the pen, he just takes the ball and attacks. He looks to be on-pace to a big season. You wonder if he will get another opportunity to start should need arise. If so, he would have to be stretched out. With the success he is having, that seems unlikely.

Pedro Strop – Following a tough September, it was good to see Strop have the success he had this Spring with the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. It is never going to be a question of stuff with Strop. The issue with him will always be, ‘Will Strop beat himself?’ In the early game today, Strop got in trouble not with the fluke broken-bat single, but with the walk that preceded that. The wild pitch to allow the run was not acceptable. Against Tampa Bay earlier in the week, he allowed 2 homers in the same inning, after allowing just 2 homers all of last year. We talked before the year about how we believed you could see a jump in ERA, but a continuance in overall effectiveness from Strop. We expected a jump in ERA if he allowed more homers, but expected him to retain his high level of ground outs, due to the weak contact he incites. It seems clear that Showalter is going to have to build back Strop’s confidence a bit. What happens with Strop is one of the keys to this team. If you get him going, you have to feel good about the O’s chances of maintaining 6 inning leads. If he becomes a liability, that really impacts the pen as a whole. I think with his control issues, you will sometimes see him have rough stretches. What happens with Strop over the next Month plus (and how he used) will be very interesting to see.

Tommy Hunter – Hunter out of the pen includes an up-tick in velocity. Still not a lot of movement. He is going to attack the plate (o walks, after just 27 in 133.2 ip last year), and sometimes he is going to get hit (3 homers allowed in 6.1 ip, after allowing 32 in ’12). I like Hunter as a member of the staff, and a potential swing starter if necessary. I don’t believe I would ever have confidence in him in high-leverage situations.

Troy Patton – Patton had a strong, and often over-looked 2012 season. To begin ’13, Patton has appeared in 6 games, pitching 5.2 innings, and has yet to allow an er.

TJ McFarland – It did not take long to see why Duquette and Showalter were fans of McFarland. Not a guy with an overpowering fastball, but he gets good movement, and keeps the ball low. His GB% is currently 55.6. Have to love that he has 11 k’s, vs. just 2 walks in his 7.2 innings of work.

Overall Thoughts

The Orioles have yet to play very well, which is somewhat encouraging. The defense can improve. The pitching can improve. Despite that, the Birds are still 2 games over .500, and are only 3 back of the streaking Red Sox.  One game in mid-April only means so much, but I think getting that second series win vs. the Rays Thursday night could prove relatively important. It was an emotional game, and I think the type of game they can build on.

After tonight and tomorrow vs. LA, the O’s will face Toronto at home for 3 games, prior to going West (trips to Oakland and Seattle) to end the Month. A winning Month appears within in reach, and should put the O’s in good position entering May.