2011 O’s Rotation?

The rest of July 2010 is going to have a very large impact on the Orioles 2011 rotation. If Guthrie is not traded by the deadline, it becomes increasingly likely he will be part of the rotation to start next-year. Millwood does not figure to be back regardless, so you would expect him to be moved. However, I guess it is possible that MacPhail decides the innings Millwood can continue to provide the O’s this year is worth more than any scraps the Orioles are offered for the veteran.

I would disagree with that point-of-view, but I could see it as a possibility. If you trade Millwood as expected, that opens up a spot in the rotation now. That means Tillman, and Britton would have the opportunity for further 2010 starts and increase their own chances of starting 2011 in Baltimore.

Let us take a quick look at the available Free Agent starters that could potentially intrigue the Baltimore Front-Office:

Bronson Arroyo (34) – $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Erik Bedard (32) – $8MM mutual option
Jeremy Bonderman (28)
Jorge De La Rosa (30)
Justin Duchscherer (33)
Jeff Francis (29) – $7MM club option
Freddy Garcia (35)
Jon Garland (31) – $6.75MM mutual option with a $600K buyout
Rich Harden (29) – $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
Aaron Harang (33) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Hiroki Kuroda (36)
Cliff Lee (32)
Ted Lilly (35)
Carl Pavano (35)
Brad Penny (33)
Andy Pettitte (39)
Ben Sheets (32)
Jeff Suppan (36) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Javier Vazquez (34)
Brandon Webb (32)
Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
Chris Young (32) – $8.5MM club option

From that list, to me the three most realistic options for the O’s to potentially obtain would be:

Bedard, Sheets, and Webb.

I know Bedard is making rehab starts now, and Webb had a bullpen session on July 1st as he prepares to face hitters for the first-time.

It seems pretty clear to me that Matusz, and Arrieta will start 2011 in the rotation, and that at-least 1 of Bergesen, Tillman, and Britton will join them. That is at-least 3 starters right there, with Guthrie locked into a spot if he is not traded. I can certainly see the O’s deciding to bring in 1 quality arm, with front of the rotation ability – but the same reasons each of the above 3 (Bedard, Sheets, and Webb) would be obtainable, would be the same reasons the O’s would shy away.

It is hard for me to imagine Guthrie bringing enough back in a trade, that you would want to trade him, and sign someone like Garland to replace his innings. Though if the O’s lose both the innings of Millwood and Guthrie, they probably will not be comfortable with going the complete youth-route of Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, and Bergesen.

I don’t see the O’s as a match for Chris Young, Harden, Francis, or Vasquez types.

I could see the O’s wanting to attempt to make a run at Lee, but he figures to get just as much money from contenders. I can’t see the Orioles overpaying to the point that he would come here, over the money he would be offered from a contender.

If the Orioles want to add a front of the rotation starter, they should just pony up and pay the posting fee for Yu Darvish. Darvish has been in contact with Agent Arm Tellem, and it appears increasing likely Darvish will be posted after the 2010 season.

Darvish can ask to be posted at anytime, but is not a FA until after his 9th season. (this is his 6th season). It will likely take a $60M posting fee, just to gain the ability to negotiate a contract. At that point, you would be looking at offering a contract he could turn down – something like 6yrs $60M.

Rules on Posting:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

Process:
When a player under contract with a Nippon Professional Baseball team wishes to play in Major League Baseball, he must notify his current team’s management and request that they make him available for posting during the next posting period (November 1–March 1).[4] If the team consents, the player (including any other NPB players wishing to be posted) is presented to the MLB Commissioner. The Commissioner then notifies all MLB teams of the posted player and holds a four-day-long silent auction during which interested MLB teams submit sealed bids (in USD) to the Commissioner’s Office. After the allotted four days have passed, the Commissioner closes the bidding process and notifies the posted player’s NPB team of the highest bid amount but not who the bidding team is.The NPB team then has four days to either accept or reject the nonnegotiable bid amount.

If the bid is rejected, the NPB team retains the player’s rights and the player cannot be posted again until the next off-season. If accepted, however, the bid amount is publicly revealed and the winning Major League team is granted the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player for 30 days.[1] If the player and the MLB team agree on contract terms before the 30-day period has expired, the NPB team receives the bid amount as a transfer fee, and the player is free to play for that team in the MLB in the coming season. If the MLB team cannot come to a contract agreement with the posted player, then no fee is paid, and the player’s rights revert back to his NPB team. A player can request to be posted again in subsequent years, and the process is repeated with no advantage to the club that had won the previous year.

http://baseballmastermind.com/baseba…s-dicek-watch/
Nippon Ham general manager Masao Yamada said he would consider posting Darvish and would not hold him against his will: “We will admit a transfer, if it is allowed by the system. . .We won’t chain our players. Actually, we want to train players like the majors are looking for and [see them] perform well over there. That’s kind of our goal.”

Former Kansas City Royals manager Trey Hillman, who managed Darvish and the Nippon Ham Fighters before coming to the Royals added:“In my opinion, he’s one of the best in the world at 21. . .He’s got an array of every pitch you’d want to see with the exception of a knuckleball. He throws a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, movement that is natural and really unfair. He has velocity, 92-95, to go with it. He’s a tremendous competitor, a great worker, a great teammate, handles fame very well.”

Jim Callis of Baseball America says that had Darvish been a prospect in the MLB prior to the 2008 season, he would have ranked Darvish as the #3 prospect, behind Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria, but ahead of Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz.Baseball America reports Darvish throws a fastball that sits in the low 90’s but can reach 95-96 mph. He also throws a curveball, slider, splitter and changeup.

One international scout says:“He has plus stuff, and plus command and control to go with plus makeup. If I had a big game, I would be comfortable with him on the mound. He’s a No. 1 starter for me. Absolutely filthy last year, and he played most of the year at 20. We’ll see what happens as the innings pile on his arm, but he would be 1-1 in the draft. . .We’re not talking a ‘blow them away with a fastball and knee-wobbling stuff’ kind of guy. We’re talking a kid with a projectable body who knows how to pitch and is still developing physically—and is really good right now. He still might end up with jaw-dropping stuff. He’s still very young.”

2007: 15-5, 1.82 era, 207.2 ip, 123 hits, 210 k’s, 49 bb’s, 12 CG, 3 SHO
2008: 16-4, 1.88 era, 200.2 ip, 136 hits, 208 k’s, 44 bb’s, 10 CG, 2 SHO
2009: 15-5, 1.73 era, 182 ip, 118 hits, 167 k’s, 45 bb’s, 8 CG, 2 SHO
2010: 7-4, 1.50 era (Age 23)