Below are some prospects that just missed my top 30 list, or need some improvements and experience before they are considered. The thoughts and views shared are a combination of my personal experiences and the reports and views given to me by sources within the baseball industry. I have seen almost all of these prospects play at least a few times, with some over 10 times. There are some prospects that I left off this, as it will be a two-part piece. These are in no order.
Josh Hader
Hader has a wiry frame and the looks of a pitcher whom has room for growth. As a LHP, he simply looks like he could be death on left-handed hitters down the road. His arm angle is similar to a Chris Sale type and he hides the ball extremely well. He was sitting primarily 88-91 with his fastball and showed off a nice sweeping curve and slider against the two lefties he faced in my lone time seeing him in 2012.
It has been mentioned a few times to me that he could potentially start down the road. I think with a little growth and muscle added to his raw frame, he could boost his stamina enough to consistently get through a lineup more than once. Either way, it seems like the Orioles found a solid lefty in the 19th round of 2012. He could be a strong LOOGY type down the road, but the potential to start would really boost his prospect status. I want to see more of Hader before placing him inside the top 30 Orioles prospects. From what I have seen and heard so far, it is all positive.
Bennett Parry
Parry quietly put together a solid season in the GCL and Aberdeen. I was able to see him twice. He is a little stiff on his release, which sometimes can take away some velocity. I’m not sure if that is the case there, but more-so an observation. His fastball sits primarily in the 88-90 range and touched 92 on both occasions I saw him. The two-seam has solid movement on it. Depending on how he fills out, I think a tick or two in velocity should be expected. He has the tall body and frame to think some growth is left.
Parry took a strong step forward this season, and he could start at Frederick in 2013. The debate is still up on whether he can start or not. I think it is worth giving him a shot in the rotation, although he could turn into more of an innings-eater RP type.
Christian Walker
I received a few inquiries as to why I did not have Walker in my top 30. The answer is really that Walker has not shown any power yet. Most within the industry I have talked to stated that this is the deal-breaker with Walker. As many know, a first base prospects’ status is largely determined by their power and bat. Walker was a well-established draft pick coming out of USC, but never established the “big-bat” response that most look for. While the Orioles clearly think he can eventually hit for power, there has simply not been enough time for him to prove it yet. Walker only had 93 plate appearances in 2012 and I was able to see him a few times. He displayed above-average contact, an above-average approach, and some relatively solid skills at first defensively.
Essentially he is the same person that most thought coming into the draft. Next season he should start out at Frederick since he was an established college player. He was at Aberdeen to get his feet wet in professional ball. In order for him to crack the top 30 for me, he will need to show a little more power. It seems almost juvenile to say that, but that is the hard truth when it comes to first basemen. It will not take much for him to push his way on, but I am being conservative with him after what I have seen and whom I talked to.
Tyler Townsend
Talent cannot shine if it is never used. Townsend is another player within the system that simply cannot stay healthy. I personally view health as a skill. Some players cannot keep themselves on the field, and Townsend is definitely one of them. However, there is a wealth of talent here when he is able to show it. While he does not have the approach and contact prowess of Christian Walker at the plate, he makes up for that with actual power potential.
If he played an entire year, he could hit 20+ HR in the minors with ease. I would rate his power as plus and have seen him mash bombs over the Bowie and Frederick fences. His swing has a little loop in it still, although it is a very smooth and pretty swing. I don’t think he will ever walk much, as he is very aggressive at the plate and goes up there hacking. It essentially comes down to whether or not he can stay healthy, and that has clearly been a problem so far. He is a guy that was just on the cusp of making my top 30.
Aaron Baker
Baker was the prospect brought back when the Orioles traded Derrek Lee to the Pirates. He is another HR masher in the minors, and rivals Townsend as the best power-hitting first basemen in the system. In fact, he might have the most raw power out of any prospect within the entire Orioles system. He is strong as an ox, as indicated by his 22 HR in 2012.
Of course with every prospect, there are flaws. Baker has a few large holes in his swing. He reminds me a little bit of Mark Reynolds at the plate. He will simply not make contact at times and does strike out a little too much for my liking. When he makes contact, it will go a long way. I truly worry with him against better secondary arsenals. Unfortunately he was injured and missed a lot of playing time when he was called up to Bowie. So we will have to wait until next season to see how the 25 year old progresses against better arsenals.
Brenden Webb
Webb is an interesting player. I had the privilege of meeting him once, and he seems like a very down-to-earth individual. He has all the tools one would like in an outfielder. He has a cannon arm that I would rate plus. It is probably in the top tier within the system in terms of outfielders. He has decent range and speed, enough to athletically play the corners without regret. At the plate, he has a great approach and will work the count in his favor quite often. In fact, he has walked near 100 times the past two seasons. There is surprising pop, since his frame and build is not huge (although he is fairly tall and built at 6’3″). There is minimal movement with the hands and feet during his load. With above-average bat speed, it seems like Webb has all the tools wanted in a player. The main problems with Webb is that he strikes out a ton and often seems entirely too passive at the plate. He can kill a fastball and most mistake pitches, but the worry comes against more high-end arsenals in which he does struggle against.
The past two years have been maddening, since he has some solid tools but really has not put together a full package yet and may never. The Orioles have moved him along slowly, and he repeated A-ball at Delmarva. While there were definitely improvements in 2012, it is unknown to me whether that was because of repeating the level or simply refining his game. I have no worries about Webb getting on base, but I do need to see how he handles a secondary offering at the higher levels. His plate discipline is probably average at best, and that may catch up with him the further up he goes. While talking to some people within the industry and some whom have seen him play quite a bit more than me, they simply thought he was a strong organizational player that has probably hit his ceiling. If that is the case, then it will be tough for him to move up in rankings as time goes by. Webb is always going to be a guy on the outside looking in, almost like Tyler Kelly has been his entire career. In 2013 he probably will start out at Frederick. It will be important for him to push his way towards Bowie and prove that he can handle the game at the next level.
Tucker Blair was born and raised in the Baltimore area and currently lives in Elkridge, Maryland. He graduated from York College of Pennsylvania with a B.S in Entrepreneurial Studies and is currently a Project Analyst for a Management Consulting Firm in Federal Hill, Baltimore. Tucker was previously the Managing Editor at Orioles Nation, where he worked on prospect lists, reports, and analysis on the Orioles minor league system. He also previously wrote his personal blog, The EntreprenOriole.