2019 Baltimore Orioles: Things I’m Interested In (Part 3)

In 12 days the Baltimore Orioles begin their 2019 season.

Here we conclude our 3 part series of the things I’m interested in this year.

In Part 1, we looked at the younger players on the likely Opening Day roster.
In Part 2, we looked at the players on the verge.

Here in Part 3, we have short takes takes on:

– Veteran and Younger Veteran Players With The Potential To Be Moved During ’19
– The June Draft & International Free Agency
– When 2019 Ends

We’ll conclude with our current best guess on the Opening Day roster.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Who Could Potentially Be Moved? 

With his surgically repaired right knee, Mark Trumbo has returned to the Orioles Spring Training lineup. With the O’s having numerous OF options, Trumbo figures to begin the 2019 season as the Orioles DH.

Trumbo is a poor OF, but a usable DH. For his career, the 33 year old has a .763 OPS.  Last year, he had a .764 OPS. His ’16 (.849 OPS) was him producing above expectations. His ’17 (.686 OPS) was him producing below expectations.

If he starts of ’19 similar to ’18 (hitting at his career weight); he’s movable. That said, the O’s will likely have to eat a portion of whatever remains on his $13.5M 2019 salary.

By July at the latest, things will come to a head with Trumbo. He’ll either have produced enough that someone will take him (for a minimal return), or he’ll struggle and the Orioles will release him to open up additional room for internal youth.

Our BSL Colleague Rob Shields illustrated the importance of Mychal Givens, and Dylan Bundy; and I completely agree.

There is talent with the duo, and when you factor in their minimal contracts, and remaining service time – it’s quite possible they bring back solid returns.  They don’t have to be moved, but if they are performing Mike Elias definitely figures to listen to potential offers.

The Orioles Opening Day starter is going to be Alex Cobb.  There are multiple reasons why the start of Cobb’s Orioles tenure started on a rocky note. To his credit, he rebounded over his last 9 starts during August and September. After the All-Star break overall, his ERA was 2.56.

The RHP is signed through ’21. Including ’19, he’s owed a very manageable $43M over these next 3 years. He’s been a quality starter throughout his career. The first half of ’18 was an aberration. If he produces anywhere near his expectations, he could bring a nice hull at the deadline.

If you want to keep him as the leader of an increasingly young staff going forward, that wouldn’t make me cringe. If you believe the O’s could possibly be fairly interesting by ’21, I wouldn’t disagree. Ultimately though, if you can get rid of his salary (while manageable, it’s not nothing) and bring back years of talented team control – that’s probably the right move.

Villar, Cashner, Bleier could also be traded during the year. Again, the expected returns would be minimal. I’d probably hold on to Villar myself. He’s a legitimate Major Leaguer at a very livable price.

So, no real surprises in the names above.  I’ll throw out another possibility who would surprise – Trey Mancini.

Do I expect Mancini to be moved? No.
Do I think it’s something which could be explored? Yes.

Mancini ultimately should be at 1st or DH, but I think he’s made himself a livable corner OF. He’s got below average range, but he hustles, and he has a better arm than you’d think.

He can provide a team with some position versatility, a productive bat that costs hardly anything, and has team control. That has value.

Maybe you are looking at his overall ’18 splits .242 / .299 / .416 and questioning my take on him being a productive bat.

I think he was hurt during the 1st half of last year. He rebounded in the 2nd half.  He generally has good ab’s. One thing to note is that through his initial 2 years in the bigs, he has reverse splits (better vs. RHP).

If he goes out and hits in the 1st half, a lot of teams could use him.

Again, the O’s don’t have to move him.  I probably wouldn’t.
Trumbo won’t be an Oriole in ’20. If Davis doesn’t rebound to livable, it’s possible that the O’s eat Davis’ contract and move on.

If that happens, you could enter ’20 with Mancini being a logical answer at DH or 1st.
I do think the O’s can become a contender during the remaining amount of time that Mancini is under control.

The flip-side is that while he’s a good contributing player; he’s not a must have in-terms of being a building block.  Like Bundy, and Givens; it would be interesting to see what he could bring back.

The June Draft and International Free Agency

By virtue of their horrific 2018 season, the Orioles hold the #1 overall pick in the 2019 June Amateur Draft.

The last time the O’s held the #1 overall selection, they took Ben McDonald in ’89.  By the end of that year, he was already in the bigs.

That’s rare, and shouldn’t be the expectation here.

This isn’t the NFL or NBA.  It’s not immediate plug and play.

Still, the O’s are going to have their choice of whoever they want.

FanGraphs has some good Draft coverage, which you can find here.  Their Top 100 can be found here.

MLB.com has quality coverage as well, and their Top 50 can be found here.

You can read the Scouting Reports as easily as I can.  I’m not going to pretend to have strong opinions on players I’ve never seen.

I’ll state the obvious, the O’s need to hit on the selection, whoever they take.

If the Orioles take Adley Rutschman, you’d have to think he’ll move quickly as an advanced College Bat.  Every player is an individual, and their development is unique; but you can think back to the O’s taking Matt Wieters 5th overall in 2007, and Wieters making his ML debut in 2009.  A mid-2021 debut for Rutschman wouldn’t be surprising.

If the O’s take Bobby Witt Jr, it will feel similar to the 2010 selection (3rd overall) of Manny Machado. Machado would join the O’s in August of 2012 in the heat of Pennant race (and helped the O’s immediately with his defense). Somewhere between late ’21, and mid ’22 could be a reasonable expectation for Witt.

Of course, again, Rutschman is Rutschman and not Wieters.  Witt is Witt and not Machado.
Their paths will be their own.

Also, it’s worth noting that Rutschman and Witt might not be the selection the O’s make.
Other names are emerging, and we’re months away from June. Lots of additional evaluations to take place.

Beyond the June Draft, it will be interesting to see what the Orioles do Internationally this year.

The Baltimore Sun had a good interview with Elias this past week on the International side.

I don’t believe the Pool for the 2019-2020 Signing Period yet exists.

What fund will the O’s have available to them? Will they trade some of the vets above, for increaesed amounts of the ’19-’20 Pool?

Relayed by MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball America has profiled 10 of the Top International names to know.

Is this the year we see the O’s play at the top of the International market? Look for the Top International to pair with the 1st overall selection in the June Draft?

When 2019 Ends

I think the 2nd half of this 2019 season has a chance to be pretty fun.

Fun for me will be watching a group of guys that have a chance to be a part of the next quality O’s team.

2019 is about two things for the Baltimore Orioles.

– Acquire as much talent (controlled) as possible.
– Give time and experience to those who have a chance to be part of the future.

Some will perform. Some will flame. Watching what happens will be entertaining.

I’ll be that guy. I still like Chris Davis. I’m rooting for him to rebound. I really don’t think it’s a physical deterioration. I think it’s mostly mental. A case of the yips, and at-least previously a stubbornness to change his approach.

I’d like to say I’m optimistic about him turning things around.  Unfortunately I’m not. It’s completely wait and see. I think you give him half the season. If he’s abysmal, pull the plug and move on. Of course it would suck to eat that contract, but we’re talking about a roster overall that is going to be pretty limited salary wise for years. If you have to eat the deal, you will be in position to do so.

This way you end ’19 either feeling better about Davis, or you’ve moved on.

What happens with Davis is to-be-determined.

If you moved on from Davis, and the inevitable parting happens with Trumbo; you could end ’19 with Mancini at 1st, and Stewart at DH.

Coming into Spring Training, Stewart looked like a good bet to start the year in RF. It didn’t happen. Now he needs to go back to the Minors and produce. Heading back to the Minors is fine for him. Despite a decent showing in a very limited sample size with the Birds last September, his MiL production overall has been meh. Hopefully he goes and tears things up, and earns his way back.

I thought there was a chance Austin Hays would report to Sarasota this Spring, be healthy, and earn a spot on the ML roster. That doesn’t make me Nostradamus. He’s just a kid with a lot of tools, and his ’18 season was easy to write off. He had injuries, and just never was right. If healthy, you should expect him to look good. That all said, when Spring began, I would have thought the safer bet would be that he’d be back at AAA, and have to produce. In-part because I thought the O’s would be looking to get another year of team control. At this point, Hays has crushed everything this Spring. He’s earned a ticket North.  Should expect some growing pains, but he’s got a good chance to become an above-average regular.

I’d like the O’s to spend their 2nd half with an OF Hays, Mullins, and Diaz.  I think that would be fun.
I’m not sure Mullins’ isn’t more than a 4th OF, but I want to give him all of ’19 to really evaluate him.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, we all believe in Sisco as a legitimate piece of the puzzle.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, Mountcastle has proven to be a livable 3rd (or 2nd baseman). That would make him more attractive overall, even if his MLB future is all about his bat.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, Martin has shown to be a plus defender at SS, with some offensive potential. That you believe in him as a viable starting player.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, Tanner Scott has taken another leap.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, Harvey has stayed healthy, and looks like a legitimate contributor for the ’20 Orioles.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, McKenna, and Lowther have positioned themselves to challenge for roster spots in ’20. That Santander has gotten regular ab’s in the Minors and produced.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, that out of Kline, Pop, Carroll, Phillips, Yacabonis, Hess, Ramirez, Means, Fry, Rogers; you’ve got two or three pen arms you feel good about.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, that out of Ortiz, Akin, Kremer, and Tate; you’ll feel good about one or two of them being part of the ’20 rotation.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, that DL Hall, Rodriguez, and Knight have kicked ass and progressed up the chain.

I’m hoping when ’19 ends, it feels like the Orioles are in a significantly better place. Not on the verge of contending, but to the point where you can look around the diamond and believe you have possible answers.

And if you’ve got more internal answers, you can start to look outside the organization and think about possible Free Agent acquisitions which could make sense. Who could make sense to pair with what you have?

Current Projection for 2019 Opening Day Roster

Catcher: Chance Sisco, Jesus Sucre (2)

Infield: Chris Davis, Jonathan Villar, Richie Martin, Renato Nunez, Rio Ruiz, Drew Jackson (6)

Outfield: Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, Joey Rickard, (4)

DH: Mark Trumbo  (1)

SP: Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, David Hess, Yefry Ramirez (5)

Bullpen: Mychal Givens, Richard Bleier, Tanner Scott, Miguel Castro, Pedro Araujo, Mike Wright, Nathan Karns (7)

I’d like to say Kline over Araujo, but if the O’s keep Araujo for 17 games they can send him down after that under team control. Probably worth it if they like his arm.

Dwight Smith Jr, and Young could definitely factor. Maybe at the expense of Rickard.

If Wynns was right, I’d probably expect him over Sucre.

The O’s want Karns to be their 4th starter, but with his limited workload so far, hard to have him begin the year in the rotation imo.

If the O’s don’t carry both Nunez, and Ruiz maybe they carry another arm? If so, I could see Rogers beginning the year in the rotation, with Ramirez also in the pen.