The 2020 MLB Draft is here! After many months of waiting, questions that have been amplified due to the pandemic, and much speculation on many persons part, we finally have picks. The Orioles got two picks today for in Round 1 and the Compensation A round. Let’s take a look at these players and speculate what might happen tomorrow in Rounds 2 through 5.

Round 1: Heston Kjerstad, OF

Before the draft there was much speculation that GM Mike Elias would cut an underslot deal with the #2 pick, reallocating the draft’s largest pool of money to picks at #30 and #39. That was the case, as the front office popped Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad second overall.

Kjerstad raked at Arkansas, putting up a .331/.412/.563 slash line. The power is unquestioned, as some scouts grade it as future 70 out of the left side. However, the bat is power over hit tool. He struck out nearly 20% in college and walked 7.8% of the time. On the field, he’s an average corner outfielder at best. At worst, he moves to 1B or DH.

The DRAFT model took all this into account in creating Kjerstad’s score of 14.33, 18th overall for the draft. The main positive drivers of his score are the external industry rankings—Baseball America had him 13th overall in their final ranking—and his power—adjusted ISO of 0.114 above expected. However, the model has a hard time viewing his adjusted walk rate of -0.018 and adjusted strikeout rate of 0.043. His likely positional profile—80% of his time is projected split between 1B/DH and a corner outfield spot—also drags the score down a bit.

While there is much to like with Kjerstad, there were other routes that I would’ve preferred the team take. We’ll see where the signing bonuses wind out, but I’d be interested to see how Kjerstad’s compares to Nick Gonzales, Austin Hendrick, and especially Zac Veen. All three of those position players had higher score with a strong possibility of signing for a similar bonus number. We can’t evaluate this pick in a vacuum, because it was likely made with an eye towards later picks. We’ll just have to see how the team spends the savings they’ll likely accrue.

Comp A Round: Jordan Westburg, SS

Westburg fits nicely in at 30th overall according to Baseball America’s rankings—he was ranked 33rd. The shortstop has a good chance at sticking at shortstop, and even if he doesn’t he profiles as a solid fielder at 3B or 2B. He projects for plus power and has good athleticism, excellent projectable characteristics.

However, there definitely are concerns, as the projection hasn’t turned into production yet. Westburg slashed .282/.381/.441 in 445 PAs, not exactly an inspiring line for a high draft pick. He also strikes out at a high rate, 22.25% over his career, although he does walk at a reasonable rate of 10.8%. The exit velocity numbers are good, but there definitely is a reasonable question of whether he will access that raw power enough.

The DRAFT model brings Westburg in with a score of 6.06, good for 53rd overall. The biggest weights on this score are his strikeouts, which are 0.057 above expected, and the lack of power production to make up for this—his adjusted ISO is 0.0232 above expected. For comparison’s sake, Nick Loftin has an adjusted ISO of 0.039 and he is viewed as a contact bat with fringe power. While Westburg certainly has the potential to have better ISO numbers—his exit velocity lines up with something more akin to an adjusted ISO closer to the 0.08-0.1 range—this adjustment would put him with a score of around 8.6, good for 38th in the class.

Looking Ahead to Day 2

The haul from Draft Day 1 may feel a little uninspiring. The team clearly drafted Kjerstad for an underslot deal and then likely did not spend any of the money at #30. That said, Kjerstad will hit for power and Westburg definitely has the potential to be a 20 HR at a premium position. There’s plenty of information available to front offices that we don’t have that can drive decisions—in addition to information that would drastically change my model’s results if I had access. But there will still be questions. The combined DRAFT score for the two picks comes in at 20.09, lower than several other organizations that had two picks, including the Rockies (34.94), Royals (30.44), and Rays (21.47).

Things could change tomorrow. The Orioles could target Jared Kelley, or any number of high ceiling draft-eligible sophomores. Those types of values at #39 would definitely change the perception of the class. We’ll just have to see how the rest of the draft plays out, as the Orioles have four more picks to find impact players to boost the farm system.

Stephen Loftus
Stephen Loftus

Orioles Analyst

Dr. Stephen Loftus received his Ph.D. in Statistics from Virginia Tech in 2015 and is an Assistant Professor of Mathematical Sciences at Randolph-Macon College. Prior to that, he worked as an Analyst in Baseball Research and Development for the Tampa Bay Rays, focusing on the Amateur Draft. He formerly wrote at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score. As a lifelong fan of the Orioles, he fondly remembers the playoff teams of 1996-97 and prefers to forget constantly impending doom of Jorge Julio, Albert Belle’s contract, and most years between 1998 and 2011.

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