2020 Orioles Season: How Team Could Use Akin, Kremer, and Mountcastle

During what promises to be an unusual 2020 Major League Baseball season, the Baltimore Orioles will have to make the most of their circumstance to further the development of some of their top prospects.

The 2020 season is expected to begin on July 23 or July 24, with the league planning a 60-game regular-season slate as the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. With the season will come several unusual elements, as the Orioles will only face teams from the American and National Leagues East divisions. In addition, a taxi squad will offer a limited number of players the opportunity to continue their development—with a traditional Minor League Baseball season not expected—and all of MLB will play with a DH. (For more on the rules for 2020, see this excellent story from my BSL colleague and The Verge co-host Nick Stevens.)

While the shortened schedule leaves open the possibility of plenty of surprises, it’s hard to envision the Orioles finishing better than last in the American League East—especially with the club set to play an incredibly tough schedule. The franchise is still very much locked into its rebuilding phase and will not have the benefit of a full minor-league season in 2020 to develop young players.

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That said, the Orioles can still use their 2020 slate to develop a handful of their top prospects. For this story, I am going to focus on three of the most intriguing minor leaguers that could make their major-league debuts this year: power-hitting prospect Ryan Mountcastle, and pitchers Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer. All three seemed likely to reach Baltimore this year before the MLB shutdown in March because of the COVID-19 pandemic. They could still ultimately see major-league time during a shortened season, though the Orioles will have to be creative in maximizing their development while putting them in a good position to provide value in 2021 and beyond.

I will start with Akin, who can still benefit from a shortened season. Had the season began this spring as originally scheduled, Akin probably would have returned to Triple-A Norfolk for a short stint before making his MLB debut. However, given the parameters in which play will take place over the coming months, the Orioles should let the left-hander pitch in competitive game action at the major-league level.

Having Akin in the fold would not only give the club more pitching depth, but also allow it to utilize different avenues for his development. Making him a traditional starter could be one option, especially if the Orioles decide to be among the teams that use more than five starters for at least part of the season. There is also another model the Orioles could employ, which is to use Akin as an opener or out of the bullpen to build up his innings gradually, with a goal of giving him starts towards the end of this year.

Ultimately, regardless of how he is used, the Orioles should carefully manage Akin’s innings and use 2020 as a trial run to prepare him for the major-league rotation in 2021. He has been durable over the course of his professional career—throwing over 100 innings in each of his three full minor-league seasons—but the unusual circumstances of this season should make the Orioles proceed with some caution.

At some point during the season, Kremer should join Akin on the roster, though he comes into this season with just four career Triple-A starts under his belt. Kremer probably would have needed more time than Akin at Norfolk before reaching the majors this year, but the Orioles now will have to figure out how to take a different approach with his development.

Fortunately, the Orioles do have some flexibility to ease Kremer into the majors. With rosters starting at 30 players on Opening Day, before dropping to 28 after two weeks and then 26 after a subsequent two-week stretch, the Orioles could put him on the Opening Day roster and use the first four weeks of the season to determine whether he is ready for the majors or should pitch out of the taxi squad for a while. Another option could be to leave Kremer with the taxi squad for the first few weeks of the season, maybe taking him on the occasional road trip to have as an extra arm or leaving him there until a need arises for another pitcher at the major-league level.

In Kremer’s case, I think that some meaningful game action this season is better than no meaningful game action at all. The Orioles, therefore, should look to give Kremer time at the major-league level this year, but his more limited experience above Double-A means that he could be handled with a more restrained approach than Akin in the near term.

The most notable in this group is Mountcastle, who presents the most upside of three prospects. Ranked fourth on our pre-season Top-30 Prospects list for the Orioles farm system, Mountcastle originally seemed likely to return to Norfolk for a short stint to start the 2020 season as the Orioles manipulated his service time to gain another year of team control. Two circumstances could change that approach, however: the shortened MLB season and the health of Trey Mancini, who will not play in 2020 as he continues to receive treatment for colon cancer.

Mountcastle is, in my view, the best internal option to try to replace Mancini’s power production in the lineup. The Orioles could use the shortened season to experiment with him in left field, while also finding him at-bats at first base and DH. However, service-time considerations could still come into play, with the Orioles perhaps leaving him on the taxi squad for a while to prevent him from gaining a full season of service time. While they wait for Mountcastle, the Orioles could give at-bats to the likes of Dwight Smith Jr., DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, Stevie Wilkerson, and Mason Williams, among other internal options.

Service-time manipulation has been an ongoing tactic among MLB clubs, perhaps most notoriously when the Cubs had Kris Bryant begin the 2015 season in the minors, despite a consensus among pundits that he was ready for the major leagues. Mountcastle is not as advanced of a prospect as Bryant was at that time, but he still has the ceiling of a potent power-hitting, middle-of-the order bat that could be crucial to the Orioles’ rebuild.

Therefore, the question becomes this: Do the Orioles try to minimize Mountcastle’s service time this year or put him on the Opening Day roster with the intention of him playing this season in the majors? I have struggled with this question myself, but I lean more toward putting him on the Opening Day roster, believing that a 60-game stretch with consistent at-bats in the majors is better for his development than an extended run as a taxi squad player. The service-time issue is one that should not be taken lightly, but the Orioles could send him to the taxi squad if he struggles out of the gate or pursue an extension down the line. (The economics of MLB are likely to change because of how 2020 has played out, but perhaps by this offseason the Orioles will have a better sense of what they are comfortable offering Mountcastle.)

While I focused on these three players because they are on the 40-man roster and will likely debut in 2020, there are a few other names to watch. Back in January, I discussed how pitching prospects such as Zac Lowther, Michael Baumann, Alex Wells, and Bruce Zimmerman could factor into the club’s 2020 plans. With a shortened season, they might not all see major-league time this year, but it would not be surprising to see some of them with the Orioles at some point. Among position players, Rylan Bannon and Mason McCoy are likely taxi squad options that could see major-league time, while Yusniel Diaz is a player that fans will likely be clamoring to see later this year. Although I think the Orioles might be inclined to keep Diaz—who is not currently on the 40-man roster—as a taxi squad player all year, a late-season promotion to the MLB roster might serve as a valuable tune-up if the team believes he could receive extended major-league time in 2021.