2020 World Series Preview: LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

How are we going to top that?

The ALCS and NLCS were really fun to watch, with plenty of drama, big comebacks, clutch home runs and amazing defensive plays. The action wasn’t always the cleanest, but it was exciting.

And perhaps most importantly, there was some interesting, boundary-pushing, ground-breaking work in the areas of bat flippery and home run trot-onomics. There was a moment in Sunday night’s Game 7 of the NLCS where I thought Cody Bellinger might actually walk around the bases. (In fact, someone is probably developing the home run mosey right now).

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

But through all of the thrills and the back-and-forth drama, what we actually ended up with is a somewhat unsurprising World Series matchup. I mean, if I was able to predict this matchup on The Warehouse back when the season resumed, how hard could it be?

On one hand we have the Tampa Bay Rays, which was the best team in the AL during this shortened season. On the other side we have the Los Angeles Dodgers, the best team in all of baseball this season and the consensus pick to win it all once they acquired Mookie Betts in the offseason. (In case you don’t have Twitter or are otherwise unaware, Betts used to be a member of the Boston Red Sox, an extremely wealthy franchise who traded the young star in order to … save money? Yes, the world is insane.)

The Rays are the plucky underdog, a franchise of limited wealth that built through analytics, scouting, a robust farm pipeline and a sneaky-good trade. The Dodgers, on the other hand, did pretty much the same thing, only with unlimited wealth and a not-at-all-sneaky good trade.

So how do these teams match up?

OFFENSE

The Dodgers have the edge here, scoring a full run more per game than the Rays did this season. They have last season’s NL MVP in Bellinger, the former AL MVP in Betts and a fringy MVP candidate for this season in Corey Seager, who blasted five home runs against the Atlanta Braves to earn NLCS hardware. They also have guys who can crush righties (Joc Pederson, Max Muncy) guys who can crush lefties (Kiké Hernandez) and a very professional hitter in Justin Turner. They do sometimes go missing in the most puzzling of circumstances, however (see Bryse Wilson, Game 3 of the NLCS)

For the Rays, the narrative is that they wouldn’t be here without Randy Arozarena, and the 25-year-old Cuban certainly deserves loads of praise after hitting four home runs against the Houston Astros on the way to the ALCS MVP award. Arozarena was acquired along with Jose Martinez from the St. Louis Cardinals last winter in exchange for touted prospect Matthew Liberatore. And to think the Cardinals probably think they won that deal hands down. The Rays received some nice contributions from others in the ALCS, though, including an 1.145 OPS from Ji-Man Choi, three home runs from Manuel Margot and even some huge at-bats from Mike Zunino. They might not have the top-to-bottom clout that the Dodgers have, but these guys can hit well enough. And with that pitching staff and defense, they don’t have to hit that much anyway.

PITCHING

The Rays have a great reputation in this area, and it’s well-deserved. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton provide a wonderful trio at the top of the rotation, and the bullpen is stacked with frighteningly good arms, from Diego Castillo to Nick Anderson and on down to Peter Fairbanks, who was pitching in the Carolina League as recently as last season, yet was dialing it up to 100 mph against the Astros. There were some hiccups against Houston – Snell had some walk issues, Glasnow struggled in his lone start, etc. – but overall the staff did well against a stacked Astros lineup, allowing just 22 runs across the seven games, seven of which came in Game 6.

While the Rays might have the edge in reputation, the Dodgers staff is pretty good, too. In fact, in the regular season L.A. allowed fewer runs per game (3.6 to 3.8) than Tampa Bay did. Clayton Kershaw is lined up to pitch Game 1, and while the legend isn’t what he used to be and comes with a bit of playoff baggage, he is still a security blanket of sorts. On top of that, Walker Buehler allowed one run in 11 innings of NLCS work, showing he’s the ace of this staff, and Kenley Jansen might have rediscovered some velocity, having touched 94 in three scoreless innings against the Braves. The wild card here is Julio Urias, who is still only 24 despite having been around since the Truman administration. (Don’t fact check this). Urias allowed one run in eight innings in the NCLS, including one start. He could be the perfect Swiss army knife in the World Series.

DEFENSE

There was a period in the ALCS where I thought the Astros might not ever get a ball to fall in. It was simply ridiculous watching Manny Margot fling himself over walls making catches, Hunter Renfroe dive and slide and fill his glove, and Kevin Kiermaier, as usual, track down everything. But is it as good as it’s reputation? Mike Petriello has a great breakdown over at MLB.com and his analysis says, basically, that some of the success against Houston was great defense, some of it was great positioning and some of it was luck. Petriello calls them “solidly above average, but not elite.”

In fact, according to various sources, the Dodgers actually ranked ahead of the Rays in outs above average, defensive runs saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and defensive efficiency. Plus, there’s this.

What’s it all mean? It means we’ve got the two best teams in baseball battling it out for the championship. One is a well-run small-market team that’s only been there once and has never won a title. The other is a well-run large-market behemoth with tons of resources, yet a fanbase desperate for their first title in 32 years.

It’s going to be fun.