You can’t sugarcoat ineptitude.
The Major League product for the Baltimore Orioles has been horrific.
For the second time this year, the O’s have lost 13 games in a row.
For the year, the O’s have been outscored by 218 runs.
With 44 games remaining in this year, the Orioles are on-pace to win just 52 games.
This recent stretch has been completely on-par with the 0-21 beginning to the ’88 season, or the 4-32 finish to 2002.
The numbers speak for themselves.
In ’17, the O’s finished in last place, winning 75 games.
In ’18, the O’s bottomed out, finishing 47-115. That unceremoniously ended the Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter era, and ushered in the Mike Elias regime.
In ’19, the O’s went 54-108. This was expected, and accepted as it was understood you weren’t trying to do anything at the ML level, besides clearing the decks.
Last year was obviously abridged, and the O’s went 25-35. The shorter-season, and expanded rosters helped the O’s to be competitive over 60 games.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
This ’21 season is definitely a step-back for the ML product.
I didn’t think they would win 70 games, but I absolutely thought they wouldn’t look completely overmatched. And my primary basis for that, was believing that Keegan Akin, and Dean Kremer had the ability to be league average 4th and 5th starters. That they would keep the Orioles in games. Obviously that didn’t happen. Akin and Kremer completely imploded, and that has had a ripple effect throughout the roster.
And yet as I’m annoyed as I am about the current ML product; I’m not down at-all on the Orioles immediate future.
If they want to, the Orioles can be vastly improved in ’22.
If they want to, the Orioles can be legitimately very good in ’23.
The ML roster right now looks like the disaster it is, because it’s comprised of too many guys who don’t belong in the Major Leagues.
That doesn’t mean the roster doesn’t have pieces who can contribute to the next quality Orioles team.
It means the weaknesses of the current roster are so extreme, they get exposed night-after-night.
When the Orioles remove the deadweight (players who are below replacement-level); and replace them with just average Major Leaguers; the entire product will take a significant leap.
When (if) the Orioles replace ‘average’ ML production, with a couple of stronger contributors – they will move towards contention.
We know the Minor League talent is vastly improved in both overall talent, and also with potential usable depth.
We’re all hoping Adley Rutschman is going to be closer to Buster Posey vs. Matt Wieters – but we would all take prime Wieters over Severino.
We’re all hoping Grayson Rodriguez will be Jacob deGrom – but the Orioles current 2-5 starters each have an era over 5.25. Rodriguez doesn’t have to immediately be Cy Young to immediately improve the O’s rotation.
The Orioles didn’t trade Trey Mancini at the deadline.
He was never going to fetch more in a trade, then he figured to bring back then. (And he was never going to bring back a huge return to begin with.) I believe the Orioles will reach an extension with Mancini in the coming months.
John Means is the pitching version of Mancini. A good-not-great player, who through sheer competency looks amazing compared to most of his teammates. He’s under control through ’24.
Those are usable pieces.
Cedric Mullins still has an OPS over .900 here in mid August.
Even if that falls to .750 next year, that’s a usable piece when coupled with his defense.
I’m a big Austin Hays fan, but I’m not unaware of the questions.
He’s been on the IL twice this year, and he’s got a .710 OPS. He needs to finish strong this year for me to really be excited about him going forward. But he’s a quality OF, he has pop, he can run. He just turned 26, and he’s only played 162 games in the Majors to-date. I absolutely believe he can be a piece of a quality team. Now it’s on him to stay in the lineup and go prove that.
I’m a bit more skeptical on Anthony Santander, but there are things to like.
He’s got real power. He’s a .742 OPS guy for his career in 950 ab’s, despite his anemic .291 career on-base %. He’s at-least adequate in the field. He’s just turning 27 in October. Like Hays, he could be out of the picture this time next year – or he could prove to be a piece going forward. Again similar to Hays, he needs to take advantage of these remaining 40 games.
Ryan Mountcastle is a very usable piece. You’ve got years of team control, with him costing nothing, and he’s perfectly fine at 1st and DH.
At 2nd base, you’ve got a number of guys – Jahmai Jones, Terrin Vavra, Rylan Bannon – who over the next year figure to get opportunities, and have a chance to contribute. With Connor Norby a name to watch down the road, and with Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo also having some chance to give you something in the immediate.
Most Oriole fans are significantly down on Tanner Scott, Hunter Harvey, and Dillon Tate. I’m down on their individual chances of being high-leverage types; but also think they can help a winning team. Would help if the starters in front of them were not completely abysmal, and there were a couple of high-end relievers in-front of them.
I get that it’s not exciting to talk about back of the rotation starters, but if you can grow 4th and 5th starters internally who cost nothing, and can keep you in-games, that has a ton of value. The group of Akin / Kremer / Lowther / Baumann / Wells / Zimmermann / Bradish / Smith / Rom / Knight have all had success through the AA level. I’d like to think you can get 1-2 usable rotation arms, and 1-2 usable relievers from that group. Yes, as we mentioned earlier, Akin and Kremer were complete disasters this year. But I’m not going to outright dismiss them going forward either. As Mullins has reminded these last few months, expectations can change.
Jordan Westburg has reached AA.
Gunnar Henderson is not far behind.
It shouldn’t shock anyone if Westburg in-particular takes over at SS or 3rd in the ML level by the middle of next year.
What I’m trying to point here is that there are usable pieces.
Some will work out, some won’t, but there are a number of guys who have the ability to contribute to a winning team.
What we know is that even if these guys are all productive; they are still going to need to be reinforced from the outside.
We’ve known this all-along right?
There are multiple ways to build a team.
And part of how a team builds is based on their own individual markets and challenges they face.
The Orioles decided on this path of building.
The benefits of building this way include developing a group of guys of similar ages and team control. Additionally, you’ve cleared the decks of financial obligations going forward.
I said above the Orioles can be vastly improved in ’22, and a legitimate contender in ’23.
That’s only going to happen if they go and use their payroll flexibility and go add external difference makers to what already exists.
This is what we said the other day on Twitter:
Go and read the reactions to that fairly innocuous comment.
The general consensus of Oriole fans is that ramping the spending to $140M+ for ’22 is unfathomable.
Why?
To Clarify What I’m Saying
– I think the team is now in a position to add because they’ve cleared the decks of commits going forward, they have obvious positions of need, and the Free Agent class happens to line up well with those needs.
– I have no idea if they’ll spend what they should be spending this offseason, but if I had to guess… I would also say no.
– You can’t make Free Agents take your money, but you can offer.
– I don’t think spending $140-$150M on payroll next year is crazy at all. They’d be greatly improved, and well positioned for a real run in ’23. They’ve spent more than that previously, and with inflation, we’re talking about 75% of their previously established max payroll.
– It’s talked about repeatedly in Astroball that they wanted to have a cheap surrounding core (under long-term team control) and then be able to add externally. It’s not a magical formula, it’s just logical. And for me it’s logical that Elias also sold this plan to the Orioles. In the initial building, take the payroll down, invest in other areas of Baseball Operations. When a certain point is reached, bring the payroll up to add. Will that happen? I generally think so, but probably slower than I’d like.
– I do suspect they’ll make some moves beyond the complete fringes of the roster this Winter. Taking the salary somewhere to $70-$80M seems like a reasonable expectation of what the Orioles are likely to-do.
– If they have no desire to spend at all, they should be operating like Tampa Bay, and Mancini should have been traded.
Why do I think the Orioles have the ability to spend to $140-$150M?
– In April 2020 FanGraphs Estimated the Orioles local TV Revenue at $54M.
– In centralized money the Orioles receive from National TV deals, etc, it’s estimated the Orioles receive $91M.
– With the sale of BAM Tech, each team received a one time pay day of $50-$68M…. and MLB will continue to receive 15% annually, divided among the teams, and this counted as outside of baseball related revenues. While I don’t know how much the Orioles can expect from BAM Tech this year, they are receiving something.
– 48% of local revenue is subject to revenue sharing, and distributed equally among all 30 teams. Each team receives 3.3% of the sum as a result, with each team generating an estimated $118M from that pot. I believe (but don’t definitively know) that means 48% of their estimated local TV revenue + other revenue streams is subject to revenue sharing, and $118M comes back to the Orioles.
Yes, the Orioles will eventually have to payout something significantly to the Nationals. Yes, the Orioles still have revenue. Yes, the Orioles should be investing some of their revenue back into the Major League product.
What Names Are You Talking About?
Correa or Bryant $30M AAV (I suspect Correa will get 8+ years, Bryant 6.)
Stroman $22.5M AAV 5 years
A. Wood $15M AAV 3 years
Hand $15M AAV 2 years
Bradley $10M AAV 2 years
= $92.5M in Free Agent Spending + $54M in Meoli’s estimated ’22 Opening Day salary without additions = $146.5M Payroll
Add $2M for SS or 3rd.
OD
Catcher: Severino
1st: Mancini
2nd: Jones
SS: Correa or Scrapheap
3rd: Bryant or Franco
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander
DH: Mountcastle
Bench: Wynns, Urias, Stewart, Mateo
Rotation: Stroman, Means, Wood
4/5: Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, Bradish, Smith, Lowther, Baumann, Wells
Bullpen: Hand, Bradley, Harvey, Scott, Tate, Fry
Other: Sulser, T. Wells, Lopez, 4/5 starter options above
By June 1st:
Rutschman takes over at C
Rodriguez joins the rotation
What are Westburg, and Henderson doing at Bowie?
What is Hall doing? Where is his health?
That’s just one option.
That isn’t some world-beating team, but it’s a much improved team, and would position the Orioles well for ’23.
If you are willing to spend $90M this Winter in either Free Agents, or absorbing contracts via Trade; there are numerous things you could accomplish this Winter.
The 2021 ML product has been a disaster.
That said there are pieces on the roster to build with, and more internal talent joining the Orioles soon.
If they want to, the Orioles can be vastly improved in ’22.
If they want to, the Orioles can be legitimately very good in ’23.
What comes next for the Orioles is up to them.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.