2021 NCAA Tournament: South Region Preview

Selection Sunday passed and the Road to the Final Four is officially underway. Yesterday the NCAA tournament bracket was announced as 68 of the best teams in the country awaited their names to be called with a chance to make it to the big dance.

In this article, we are going to be focusing specifically on the South Region that is headlined Baylor Bears and the Ohio State Buckeyes. There are also a handful of other interesting squads in this grouping including a faceoff between North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Florida just to name a few.

I will be breaking down and analyzing each of the teams in this region factoring in things like Bleacher Report’s power rankings, team strengths vs. weaknesses and of course individual matchups between primetime players. I will also be making my picks for each matchup in this region all the way through until only one team in the South Region is left standing. So, with that all said let’s get right into it!

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baylor (1) vs. Hartford (16)

Baylor

Bleacher Report Ranking: 2 of 68

Significant Wins: Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma State

Significant Losses: Oklahoma State, Kansas

Season Summary: Hanging lock step with the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Baylor has remained atop the AP Poll for the entirety of the year and is heavily favored to come out of the South Region. With a record of 22-2 and 13-1 in conference play, Coach Scott Drew and the Bears locked up their first Big 12 regular season title for the first time since 1950 and only the 6^th time in program history.

Baylor has easily one of the most dynamic offenses in the country as they were third in the country in points per game (84.4) and first in three-point percentage (41.8%). This team goes as the junior backcourt of Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell go. As two potential first round picks in the 2021 NBA Draft, these two have arguably been one of the most talented college backcourts in the last decade or so. Butler is averaging 17.1, 4.8 assists and 3.3 rebounds on 48.8% shooting from the floor and 42.9% shooting from three. Davion Mitchell averages 14.1 points, 5.4 assists and 2.6 rebounds on 51.5% shooting from the floor and 46.2% from behind the arc. These two are hands down Baylor’s best facilitators and shot creators offensively but they also come up big on the defensive end as they both average two steals again.

A wild card to watch out for this team is Senior guard Macio Teague who fleshes out the Bears’ three-guard lineup as the second leading scorer on the team (16.2 points) and the team’s best free throw shooter (84.6%). According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Baylor Bears have the second-best odds to win the championship +500 only behind Gonzaga. After falling to Oklahoma State in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament, expect the Bears to come out with a chip on their shoulder as they look to bounce back and run the table en route to the Final Four.

Hartford

Bleacher Report Ranking: 65 of 68

Significant Wins: UMass Lowell, UMBC

Significant Losses: NJIT, Stony Brook

Season Summary: Definitely not the most favorable team in the bracket according to Bleacher Report as they are slated to be the third worst team in the tournament according to the rankings.

With a record of 15-8 overall and 8-6, they were just good enough to be 4^th in the American East Conference behind the likes UMBC, Vermont and New Hampshire. Their ticket to the big dance was punched with an automatic bid defeating UMass Lowell in the American East conference tournament. Although they may not be favorable in this matchup, they do have a few things that could play a big factor in their matchup against the 2^nd best team in the country.

The big glaring stat for the Hawks is that they are Top-30 in the country in opponents points per game, holding opponents to 63.3 points a game. In a matchup against one of the best offenses in the country, holding the bears to under 65 will undeniably be a tough feat. But considering Hartford only scores 65.9 points a game, the Hawks will be forced to turn this into a slug fest if they want any chance to pull off this monumental upset.

 Look for go-to guys in Austin Williams and Traci Carter to be featured heavily in this game on the offense end. The backcourt averages a combined 25.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, five assists and 3.7 steals a game. These two will need to play out of their mind to go blow for blow with Baylor’s three-headed monster in Butler-Teague-Mitchell. If the Hawks can keep the game close going into the half and play solid defense throughout, they certainly have a chance to make the Bears sweat a little.

My Pick to Win: Baylor

North Carolina (8) vs. Wisconsin (9)

North Carolina

Bleacher Report Ranking: 28 of 68

Significant Wins: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Duke

Significant Losses: NC State, Syracuse, Clemson

Season Summary: This season was definitely much improved from last season, but it was still not a standard UNC season under the helm of coach Roy Williams. With a record of 18-10 overall and 10-5 in conference play, the Tar Heels finished 5^th in the Atlantic Coastal Conference

This team had a rough patch in the early stages of the season where they had to take on top-ranked non-conference teams in Texas and Iowa. But since then, they have gradually improved throughout the season and made a little bit of noise in the losing part of the season with wins over Florida State and Virginia Tech heading into the ACC tournament. This is a team that could have easily been a Top-5 seed had they been able to close out the game against Florida State in the Conference Semifinals.

The calling card for North Carolina is their effort on the glass. They are first in the country in offensive rebounds (15.9), third in total rebounds (43.1) and Top-25 in blocks per game (4.7). This team lives in the pain as they are fourth in the country in two-point attempts (45.2) while being 310^th of 347 programs in three-point attempts (17.7). The catalysts of all this inside scoring comes from the tandem Armando Bacot and Day’ron Sharpe who has been quietly playing himself into becoming a Top-25 NBA prospect. The combination of these two big guys down low average 21.9 points, 15.7 rebounds and nearly two blocks a game.

Two other guys to keep a close eye on are Senior Forward Garrison Brooks and Freshman point guard Caleb Love who have been pretty solid for the Tar Heels this season as they both average just over ten points a game. Love leads the team in assists with 3.6 a game while Brooks is the third on the team in rebounding with 6.8. This team may be horrendous from behind the arc but tenacity in the paint has won them a handful of games this season and you can bet they will continue to run through their big guys if they want any chance at getting past a tough team in the Wisconsin Badgers.

Wisconsin

Bleacher Report Ranking: 25 of 68

Significant Wins: Michigan State, Minnesota

Significant Losses: Marquette, Maryland

Season Summary: Tough year for the Badgers as Wisconsin went from being first in the Big Ten last season to sixth this season. The team finished the year with an overall record of 17-12 and an even 10-10 in conference play.

The thing that stands out about Wisconsin is that defensively they are Top-40 in opponents points per game (64.3) and Top-60 in forcing turnovers (11.8). This will be important in a matchup like this against a big man dominated team in UNC because they will have the opportunity to pack the paint and take chances since the Tar Heels cannot kill you with three-point shooting. The tricky thing will be having enough bodies to throw at Bacot, Sharpe, Brooks and even Kessler Edwards off the bench. If the Badgers can keep those guys relatively in check, this could be a game that comes down to the wire.

The two guys that come to mind for this team are D’Mitrik Trice and Micah Potter who are the main points of offense for the Badgers. Trice leads the team in scoring (13.7 points) and assists (4.0) while also being their best three-point shooter at 38.0% on 5.2 attempts a game. Potter is the team’s second leading scorer with 12.8 points and leads the team in rebounds (5.9).

This team is not too deep as their top seven guys all average seven points or more while playing 20+ minutes a night. Expect this trend to continue as the Badgers look to lean on their main guys to hold things down in a big-time matchup to kick off the first round.

Definitely no upset alert here as this is an interesting matchup between two historically renowned college basketball programs that most recently faced each other in the Sweet 16 back in 2015. Wisconsin won that matchup in case you were wondering.

My Pick to Win: North Carolina

Villanova (5) vs. Winthrop (12)

Villanova

Bleacher Report Ranking: 27 of 68

Significant Wins: Texas, Creighton, Arizona State

Significant Losses: Saint Johns, Butler, Providence

Season Summary: Rough way to end the season for a Villanova team that came into the season with huge expectations to make some noise in the NCAA tournament. And although that is still possible, the feat will be a bit more difficult now that they will be missing their senior leader and Co-Big East Player of the Year in point guard Collin Gillespie who will miss the tournament with an MCL injury.

Nonetheless, the Wildcats enter the tournament with a record of 16-11 overall and 11-4 in conference play to sit atop the Big east. Unfortunately, with the loss of Gillespie, Villanova fell in the conference tournament quarterfinals to Georgetown who would go on to become the eventual Big East champions. So, the team is coming into the NCAA tournament with a disappointing first round exit in their conference tournament and they are missing arguably their best player.

But it is not all bad. They still have fellow Co-Big East Player of the Year in Jeremiah Robinson Earl who was also in the running as a potential National Player of the Year candidate throughout most of the season. Robinson-Earl leads the team in scoring (15.7 points) and rebounds (8.3) while shooting 49.3% from the floor. The Wildcats are going to need him to step up in a big way if they want to have any chance at avoiding the upset.

Also keep an eye on Maryland native out of Dematha High School, Justin Moore, at guard position who will be asked to handle running the offense in Gillespie’s absence. This if of course if he ends up playing but there is a chance that he could be out for this game as he is still nursing a high-ankle sprain. Villanova has a lot of factors counting against them in this game, but they still have talent and elite championship level coaching of Jay Wright to give them a strong chance to get this season back on track with a solid opening round victory.

Winthrop

Bleacher Report Ranking: 51 of 68

Significant Wins: Radford, Campbell, UNC Asheville

Significant Losses: UNC Asheville

Season Summary: Upset Alert! Coming out of the Big south, the Winthrop Eagles have a serious chance to shock Villanova in the opening round. The Eagles’ only loss of the season came on the back end of a back-to-back against UNC Asheville as Winthrop was able to hold down a 23-1 record overall, 17-1 in conference play.

Winthrop comes into this game relying on some serious depth as 11 of their 15 players play at least 10 minutes a game. This is significant when you factor in that teams like Villanova only play about seven and that was with Collin Gillespie in the lineup. The key to this game for the Eagles will be continuing to lean on their offensive onslaught as they are 30^th in the nation in scoring (79.5 points) led by Big South Player of the Year Chandler Vaudrin.

As the senior floor general, Vaudrin leads the way with 12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists and 1.3 steals a game. He may not be scoring at a high clip but alongside his other ten quality running mates who are providing significant contributions guard Adonis Arms (10.5 points) and Charles Falden (10.1 points), Vuadrin is able to casually play as an all-around point-forward for the Eagles.

Between Winthrop’s depth, the fact that they are fresh off of a conference championship and the Wildcats coming in undermanned, it seems like all the ingredients are present for the perfect upset in the first round.

My Pick to Win: Winthrop

Purdue (4) vs. North Texas (13)

Purdue

Bleacher Report Ranking: 20 of 68

Significant Wins: Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Significant Losses: Clemson, Miami, Minnesota

Season Summary: The Purdue Boilermakers are a dangerous team that is coming into the NCAA tournament with some real cache considering they have some solid conference wins in arguably the best conference in basketball this season.

Purdue enters the postseason with a record of 18-9 overall and 13-6 in conference play as the fourth best team coming out of the Big Ten behind Michigan, Illinois and Iowa who all have a viable chance to reach the Final Four.

The player to watch for the Boilermakers is Junior Forward Trevion Williams who leads the team in scoring (15.6 points) and rebounds (9.0) while also averaging nearly a block and a steal a game.  The guy is a double-double waiting to happen and is a real force down low standing at 6-foot-10, 265 pounds.  Expect Williams to get a lot of touches in this matchup as Purdue coach Matt Painter looks to test North Texas’ interior defense and see who can hang with Williams in the paint.

Also keep a close eye on Junior guard Eric Hunter Jr. who does not have a stat line that flies off the page (8.8 points and 2.8 assists), but he is very active on the defensive end and is one of the better facilitators for the Boilermakers.

North Texas

Bleacher Report Ranking: 54 of 68

Significant Wins: Western Kentucky, LA Tech

Significant Losses: Marshall, UTSA

Season Summary: The North Texas Mean Green are entering the NCAA as the Conference-USA champions after beating Western Kentucky in the conference championship game 61-57. North Texas had a solid year to say the least with a record of 17-9 overall and 9-5 in conference play, but unfortunately the deck looks stacked against them.

The Mean Green are a pretty good defensive team as they rank 10^th in the nation in opponents points per game, but they have not taken on an opponent nearly as formidable as Purdue. For North Texas to have a real shot in this game, they will need to get big performances from their guard-forward combo of Javion Hamlet and Zachary Simmons. 

Hamlet leads the team in scoring (14.9 points) and assists (4.5) while shooting 43.3% from the field and 36.8% from three. Simmons averages 10.3 points (tied for third on the team) and leads the team in rebounding with 6.2 boards a game. He is hands down the team’s most efficient scorer at 65.9% on 6.9 attempts. He is a guy that North Texas may want to get a bit more involved to combat Trevion Williams for Purdue.

My Pick to Win: Purdue

Texas Tech (6) vs. Utah State (11)

Texas Tech

Bleacher Report Ranking: 24 of 68

Significant Wins: Texas, Oklahoma, LSU

Significant Losses: West Virginia, Kansas, Houston

Season Summary: Another big matchup against some solid teams in the opening round and Texas Tech is definitely a force to be reckoned with. Entering the NCAA tournament with a record of 17-10 overall and 9-8 in conference play, they were good enough to finish sixth in Big 12 and 20^th overall in the AP Poll.

Yet another solid defensive team in this region as the Red Raiders 29^th in the country in opponents points per game (63.4 points) and 21^st in opponents field goal attempts (52.6). The leaders for Texas Tech are the guard duo of Mac McClung and Terrance Shannon. In his first season with the Red Raiders since transferring from Georgetown, McClung has made head waves in the Big 12 as he was named to the 2020-21 All Big 12 team as the lead guy for a program that has produced a handful of NBA talent over the years. McClung this season is averaging 15.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists on 42.3% shooting from the floor.

Alongside him is Terrence Shannon Jr who has the makeup of a potential first round NBA Draft prospect at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds. Shannon Jr. is averaging 12.7 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists along with 1.2 steals. He has really improved as a three-point shooter from last year to this year as he has upped his percentage from 25.7% on 1.2 attempts to 34.6% on three attempts a game. The play of these two will be crucial as Utah State is no slouch and should not be taken lightly.

Utah State

Bleacher Report Ranking: 30 of 68

Significant Wins: San Diego State, Colorado State

Significant Losses: UNLV, Boise State

Season Summary: Another potential upset here as the Utah State Aggies have something that Texas Tech does not: A dominant big man. Coming into this postseason, Utah State has an overall record of 20-8 and 13-4 in conference play and that has a lot to do with Junior Center Neemias Queta.

Standing at 7-foot, 245 pounds, Queta is averaging 15.1 points and ten rebounds while shooting 55.7% from the floor. He is also getting it done on the defensive end with a whopping 1.1 steals per game and 3.2 blocks, so he has surely spent a lot of time knocking shots into the third row.

The Aggies have other solid contributors like Justin Bean (11.3 points and 7.7 rebounds) and Marco Anthony (10.0 points and 5.0 rebounds), but Neemias Queta alone is the reason why it is really hard to bet against Utah State when it comes to pulling off the upset in this one.

My Pick to Win: Utah State

Arkansas (3) vs. Colgate (14)

Arkansas

Bleacher Report Ranking: 10 of 68

Significant Wins: Missouri, Alabama, Florida

Significant Losses: LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma State

Season Summary: The Arkansas Razorbacks enter this postseason with a record of 22-6 overall and 13-4 in conference play to finish second in the South East Conference behind Alabama.

They have one of the most elite offenses in the tournament as they are 7^th in the country in scoring (82.4 points) and 7^th in field goal attempts (64.8). So, they get up a lot of shots and with a scoring output, they do not miss very much (45.5%shooting from the floor as a team).

The ringleader of this Razorbacks squad is freshman forward and potential NBA Lottery Pick Moses Moody. Moody is averaging 17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists on 44.2% shooting from the floor and 37.9% shooting from three. Arkansas should roll with this guy to the promised land as he has been carrying this team all season and will need to continue putting his imprint on every game for this team if they want a chance to make a run to the Elite 8 and maybe even the Final Four.

Colgate

Bleacher Report Ranking: 47 of 68

Significant Wins: Army

Significant Losses: Army

Season Summary: The Patriot League Champions who took out local squad Loyola-Maryland 85-72 to punch their ticket to the big dance. The Colgate Raiders enter the postseason with a record of 13-1 overall and 11-1 in conference play, finishing only behind Navy.

This matchup against Arkansas will definitely be a battle of high-powered offenses as the Raiders are 2^nd in the country in scoring (86.4 points), 10th in field goal percentage49.7%) and 12^th in three-point percentage (38.7%).

Leading the charge for Colgate is 6-foot senior guard and Patriot League player of the Year, Jordan Burns. Burns is averaging 17.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.4 assists on 40.0% shooting from the floor and 41.7% shooting from three which are some insane shooting splits. If Colgate wants to get the upset victory over Arkansas, Burns is going to have to be able to go blow for blow with Moses Moody on the offensive end as this game has the chance to be a real high scoring affair.

My Pick to Win: Arkansas

Florida (7) vs. Virginia Tech (10)

Florida

Bleacher Report Ranking: 35 of 68

Significant Wins: Tennessee, West Virginia

Significant Losses: Kentucky, Mississippi State

Season Summary: Man would this team love to have potential 2021 NBA Lottery Pick Keyontae Johnson available for the NCAA tournament. After collapsing during a game against Florida State back on December 12th, Johnson was listed out for the season when he was diagnosed with heart inflammation. We obviously send positive energy and prayers out to him and his family as he continues to recover.

But in his absence, the Florida Gators have been able to keep the ship afloat as middle of the pack team in the SEC. The Gators finished season 14-9 overall and 9-7 in conference play, which put that 5^th in the conference.

With Johnson out, the guy who has really stepped up in his absence is sophomore guard Tre Mann. As a Gainesville, Florida native, Mann has really shown out for his home team this season by taking a drastic leap from last season to this season.

For context, last season he averaged 5.3 points, 1.6 rebounds and 0.7 assists on 35.6% shooting from the field and 27.5% shooting from three primarily coming off the bench (only started 4 of 29 games played). This season he has jumped up to 16.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists on 45.3% shooting from the field and 39.8 shooting from three. This jump from Mann has been huge for Florida and they will need him to continue on this ascension in the tournament if they want any chance at advancing past Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech

Bleacher Report Ranking: 34 of 68

Significant Wins: Villanova, Virginia, Clemson

Significant Losses: Penn State, Louisville, Pittsburgh

Season Summary: Speaking of big jumps, the Virginia Tech Hokies took a pretty big leap of their own in Mike Young’s second season as the head coach.

 Last season the Hokies finished 10^th in the ACC with a record of 16-16 and were below .500 in conference play. This season they climbed all the way up to 3^rd in the standing with a record of 15-6 overall and 9-4 in conference play.

The guy to watch for Virginia tech is Keve Aluma who was named to the All-ACC team this season after transferring from Wolford last year. Aluma is averaging 15.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists 48.9% shooting from the floor.

It will be interesting to see what will win out in this matchup: The efficient long-distance shooting of Tre Mann or the efficient inside scoring of Keve Aluma (shooting 53.4 from inside the arc). That dynamic may play a significant role in this game as these two contrasting styles collide.

My Pick to Win: Florida

Ohio State (2) vs. Oral Roberts (15)

Ohio State

Bleacher Report Ranking: 8 of 68

Significant Wins: Michigan, Illinois, Purdue

Significant Losses: Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State

Season Summary: Down the stretch Ohio State was really making a quality run that may have been worthy of being a No. 1 seed instead of a No. 2 seed.

Strong wins against Minnesota and Purdue in the opening rounds of the Big Ten conference tournament. Then a big time win over Michigan in the conference Semifinals before eventually falling to Illinois in overtime in the conference championship game. Had they been able to close the deal, there is a real chance that the Buckeyes could be headlining one of these other regions as one of the four No. 1 seeds. Nonetheless this team finished the season 21-8 overall and 12-8 in conference play while fighting in arguably the best conference in basketball this season.

 The leaders of this Buckeyes squad are Sophomore Forward E.J. Liddell and Junior guard Duane Washington. Liddell (16.1 points) and Washington (15.8 points) lead the team in scoring while also combining for 9.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists a game.

They both also have pretty efficient shooting splits as Liddell is shooting 48.0% from the field and 37.1% from three while Washington is shooting 40.5% from the field and 37.5% from three on 7.4 attempts. This duo is what carried them in the Big Ten tournament, and they will need to continue this momentum in the NCAA tournament as they are a team that may have the best chance to steal a game off Baylor and take the Final Four spot in the South Region.

Oral Roberts

Bleacher Report Ranking: 57 of 68

Significant Wins: South Dakota State

Significant Losses: North Dakota State

Season Summary: Lastly are the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles who enter the postseason with a record of 16-10 overall and 10-5 in conference play as they punched their ticket in Summit League conference championship win over North Dakota State.

Oral Roberts will need their high-octane offense to be firing on all cylinders in order to pull off the upset over Ohio State. They are 12^th in country in scoring (81.8 points), 6^th in three-point attempts (29.0) and 7^th in three-point percentage (39.0%). Getting hot from three will be crucial and this game and player who might just be the guy for the job is Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas.

Abmas is averaging 24.4 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists along with 1.5 steals a game. He is also shooting 48.6% from the floor and 43.8% shooting from three on 8.3 attempts (the next highest is Kevin Obanor with 3.9 attempts a game). Another guy to watch is Junior Forward Kevin Obanor who is averaging 18.2 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 50.3% from the field and 46.9% from three.

The two-man game of this team will be interesting to watch against the Buckeyes defense and if they can keep the game close, they may have a chance to steal this game and complete the upset.

My Pick to Win: Ohio State

Picks Throughout the Rest of the South Region Bracket

Second Round

Baylor vs. North Carolina: Baylor

Winthrop vs. Purdue: Purdue

Utah State vs. Arkansas – Winner: Arkansas

Florida vs. Ohio State – Winner: Ohio State

Sweet 16 Round

Baylor vs.  Purdue – Winner: Baylor

Arkansas vs. Ohio State – Winner: Ohio State

Elite 8 Round

Baylor vs. Ohio State – Winner: The Baylor Bears Are Going to the Final Four!