Tomorrow night the University of Maryland’s Men’s Basketball program begins their 2022-23 season as the Kevin Willard era begins.
One of the things I’m enjoying the most as a new season tips off is that there is an element of unknown about what will unfold over the next few months. This is in stark contradiction to most of the latter years of Mark Turgeon’s tenure. I feel that one of the reasons the Terrapin fanbase became largely apathetic is that the seasons became somewhat predictable before any baskets were made.
Somewhat predictable is not a description many will use to describe what we’re going to see this year from Maryland.
What Does The Roster Look Like?
Guards: Jahmir Young, Don Carey, Ian Martinez, Ike Cornish, Jahari Long
Wings: Hakim Hart, Patrick Emilien, Noah Batchelor, Pavlo Dziuba
Bigs: Donta Scott, Julian Reese, Arnaud Revaz, Caelum Swanton-Rodger
Projected Starters:
Young, Carey, Hart, Scott, Reese
How Big A Leap Does Reese Make?
In a season of turmoil, Reese flashed significant ability as a Freshman. For Maryland to be a Tournament caliber team, it feels like Reese would have to make a star turn. It’s often said that the biggest gains players make is between their Freshman and Sophomore seasons. Is he ready to show up consistently game-in, game out? His strength figures to be improved, but he’ll be adjusting to another system. With Maryland’s limited Frontcourt depth he’ll be needed to play extended minutes. Can he avoid foul trouble? Can he stay aggressive on both ends? Has he further developed his post-moves? I’m a big fan of the potential, but I feel like expectations are running a bit high. His last two games of ’21-’22 were against Michigan State. In those two games, he had a combined 4 points and 10 boards. He was physically dominated by a bigger, stronger, more experienced Spartan team. One thing that will help him this year is that Willard has promised to play with tempo. Get Reese running the floor, and there should be some easy baskets available in transition.
Who Are The Primary Reserves?
I’m expecting Martinez, Cornish, and Emilien to be the first three off the bench.
I thought Martinez would be more productive last year after transferring from Utah. His shooting numbers dropped across the board with Maryland, but he did show off good athleticism. As Maryland commits to running and pressing more often this year, I look for Martinez to have a productive season.
Cornish was a well regarded recruit who didn’t play as a Freshman. While he missed game experience, he did get to spend the year practicing and training. The RS Freshman has good length, and should be-line for regular minutes.
Emilien is a Grad Student who started 27 games last year for St. Francis. He scored in double-figures 19 times. He’s very experienced, and he’s used to producing. While he will be facing improved competition, it’s very reasonable to expect him to be part of the MD rotation. As with Cornish, he has good length.
Do you get anything out of Swanton-Rodger, Revaz, Long, Batchelor, Dziuba?
Long followed Willard from Seton Hall. That familiarity between Player and Coach probably gives Long a leg-up with his odds on making it a 9 man rotation for Maryland.
Revaz is back for Year 3 with Maryland. I wasn’t expecting that when Willard became official. Is he now ready to come in and bang against bigger teams when called upon?
I was also somewhat surprised to see Dziuba back for a 2nd year with MD. The Ukrainian native and Arizona State transfer was a 4 star prospect via 247Sports. When he joined the Sun Devils, he was the youngest player in college basketball. Can he extend the bench?
Batchelor and Swanton-Rodger are both True Freshman. I’m anticipating Batchelor as more college ready, but there is a fair amount of talent ahead of him at the wing. Swanton -Rodger joined MD late. I’m guessing that Swanton-Rodger is a step ahead of Revaz talent wise, but wonder if Revaz’s additional experience will be the difference in the utilization of both in ’22-’23. If you could get 10 combined usable minutes a game from Revaz and Swanton-Rodger, that would be pretty helpful.
Just How Good Are Young and Carey?
Young and Carey are effectively replacing Eric Ayala, and Fatts Russell.
Ayala, and Russell were a productive backcourt for a MD team that was just 7-13 in Big Ten play last year.
Young and Carey are both very experienced.
Young arrives at Maryland coming of a 1st team All-Conference USA performance last year at Charlotte.
Carey arrives at Maryland coming of a year where he was a Team Captain for Georgetown.
I’m comfortable believing that Young and Carey should be able to replicate Ayala’s and Russell’s ’21-’22 production.
Will they be any better? That’s a question.
Will they be worse? That’s a possibility.
Senior Years For Scott & Hart
The Philadelphia duo didn’t have to return to Maryland for their Senior years, but they did.
Had they jumped into the transfer window, no one would have batted an eye. Instead they opted for another year in College Park, and to be a part of Willard’s first Maryland team.
Scott has lost a bunch of weight.
For this team, I think he would be most valuable as an undersized 4. I’m wondering if his weight loss will make it harder for him to bang?
On the positive end, he should have some extra speed he can use to get around bigger defenders.
Hart is now a legit 6’8. His game has improved annually. I like that he looks to defend the oppositions best wing.
I sense his offense will benefit if MD is not bogged down in as many half-court sets as we saw under Turgeon.
Team Chemistry, Expectations, & Willard
I would suspect the team chemistry is pretty good right now. The players that came back decided to stay. That says they bought into Willard, even though Willard wasn’t the guy who brought them to College Park.
There are a lot of good vibes with the program right now. The fanbase and media are in wait-and-see mode. There are no enormous expectations for the roster this year. Most years you of course want expectations. You want to be recognized as good enough that more is asked of you. For this initial season of Willard, I think minimal expectations are great. Let everyone else get the press clippings. Enjoy getting to play loose, and feeling like the hunter vs. the hunted.
Let’s forget about last year and the turmoil of Turgeon leaving midseason, and Danny Manning temporarily taking over the reigns.
That was just a crazy season.
Maryland joined the Big Ten for the ’14-’15 season.
2014-15: Maryland went 28-7 overall, 14-4 in the Big Ten. They finished ranked #12 in the AP.
2015-16: Maryland went 27-9 overall, 12-6 in the Big Ten. They finished ranked #13 in the Coaches.
2016-17: Maryland went 24-9 overall, 12-6 in the Big Ten. Sweet 16.
2017-18: Maryland went 19-13 overall, 8-10 in the Big Ten.
2018-19: Maryland went 23-11 overall, 13-7 in the Big Ten. They finished ranked #22 in the Coaches.
2019-20: Maryland went 24-7 overall, 14-6 in the Big Ten. They finished ranked #11 in the Coaches. Big Ten Co-Champs.
2020-21: Maryland went 17-14 overall, 9-11 in the Big Ten.
What we’re illustrating here is that MD has consistently been good in the Big Ten. Whatever you feel about Turgeon, he regularly had a competitive team.
The reason he’s no longer at MD, is largely because the fanbase felt Turgeon was comfortable with being good, and not capable of leading Maryland to greatness. Terrapin fans are clamoring for banners and post-season success.
Willard won’t feel that pressure in Year 1, but the program can’t just trip over itself in Year 1 either.
Maryland absolutely has enough talent on the roster where cracking the back-half of the Top 25, and reaching the NCAA Tournament can plausibly happen.
They also have enough questions – particularly the limited Front Court depth, along with Willard and the players adjusting to each other – that anticipating 7-9 conference wins, and being outside of the NCAAT bubble is easily the safer bet.
I think MD has enough guards and wings to be pretty interesting if they use their athleticism and get up and down the floor. Pressure teams. Be a pest. Create offense from defense. Be a team that nobody likes playing. Get better month-to-month.
Over his last 7 years at Seton Hall, Willard had solid teams annually. With respect to his ’19-’20 Pirates team which finished ranked #15th Nationally; I wouldn’t be surprised if this Maryland team (questions and all) has more talent than any team he’s previously had. Of course a primary difference is MD plays in the Big Ten, and your weaknesses (depth included) will get exposed over a 20 game Big Ten schedule.
Ultimately Year 1 for Willard is about establishing an identity. This is what University of Maryland Basketball is.
That’s going to be fun to watch.
Predictions and Comments Elsewhere
CBS Sports: 10th in the Big Ten.
ESPN: 4 out of 5 Analysts, 10th in the Big Ten
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.