The 2022 MLS regular season came to a close this past Sunday with some top notch soccer and has set up a great playoff season. And the storyline of this playoff season is what I am calling the playoffs of firsts. Some of the firsts are surprising and some are down right shocking. Such is the nature of sports. So just what are some of these firsts anyway?

  1. In just their second season Austin FC is in the playoffs. And not just by sneaking in; they finished second in the Western Conference. Their fans love them having essentially sold out every home game for their two seasons, Austin will be rocking when they host Real Salt Lake on the 16th.
  2. FC Cincinnati are also in the playoffs for the first time in their MLS life. Having made the playoffs in just their 4th season.
  3. The MLS playoffs will be completed prior to the World Cup in Qatar. Normally the WC takes place during the middle of the MLS season but not so this time. What that means for MLS fans is that the USMNT will hold an MLS only camp. The camp will be to keep MLS players sharp once their seasons has been completed. While this camp probably doesn’t result in any final WC roster changes the potential is there. There is always a chance that a player could impress the coaching staff enough that they put them on the final 26 man roster. The biggest chance being a late change to the list of center backs. With Chris Richards still not playing there is a need to have another CB in our back pocket come mid November when the final roster selection is made. While its still likely that manager, Gregg Berhalter draws from European players such as Cameron Carter-Vickers, Emerson Palmer-Brown, or James Sands there is still a chance he could take a look at guys like Matt Miazga.
  4. The biggest first though is the shocker of the absence of the Seattle Sounders. The Sounders have been in the MLS starting with the 2009 season and have made the playoffs every year up till this year. A strange year to say the least. The Sounders became the first MLS team to win the CONCACAF Champions League (under the new format). They put all their eggs into that basket earlier this year and should have had plenty of time to recover and focus on the MLS regular season. Especially for a team that has historically been a strong second half team. But it didn’t happen this year. Coupled with the Portland Timbers also falling short their will be no playoff soccer in the Pacific Northwest. That is just so wrong.

Well enough of the firsts let dive into the playoff matchups and see how they set up.

Eastern Conference

Philadelphia Union

Finishing first in the East they have a first round bye and will host RBNY/CIN match. Which is good news for Union fans. They don’t lose at home having gone 12-5-0 (W-D-L) during the regular season. According to FiveThirtyEight they have a better than 50% shot to make the final. They have the best goalkeeper in the playoffs in Andre Blake and the best defense in the league. They allowed 11 fewer goals than the next best scoring defense. Its sports and weird things happen but don’t bet against these guys. Defense wins championships. And if they don’t? Well how about this tidbit? The Union led the league in scoring with 72 goals. They are my pick to win it all.

Red Bull NY – FC Cincinnati

This is a really interesting matchup. NYRB is hosting this one but they are actually a better team on the road. They score once in awhile and defend well. On the other side of the field CIN scored lights out but they don’t defend very well and that is usually not a good thing in the playoffs. So what is the difference in this matchup? Two things. First, the Red Bulls have historically not been good in the playoffs and they are a very young team this year. That’s a bad combination for the playoffs, Second is a kid named Brandon Vazquez (18 goals this season). A lot of US fans have been clamoring for him the get called in to camp for the US given how woeful we have been at finding that back of the net. While he still hasn’t gotten a call and some of the US strikers are starting to score, a hot run in the playoffs could earn him a plane ride to Qatar. So I am going with Cincy in this one.

NYCFC – Inter Miami CF

NYCFC has a couple of things going for it. They have a lot of playoff experience and are the defending MLS Champions. They have had a weird year though. The first half they were one of the best teams in the league but not so much the second half. Losing start forward Taty Castellanos as a big loss and then the injury bug hit them. Several players seem to be rounding back into form including Keaton Parks. Parks is one of the most underrated players in the league. If he is fit then NY’s chances improve a bunch. The bright side for Miami is the attacking duo of Ganzalo Higuain and Alejandro Pozuelo. One of the best duos in the league since Pozuelo joined them in midseason (stole him from Montreal). But their issue is that they don’t play very well on the road (4-3-10). Look for NY in this one.

CF Montreal – Orlando City

Montreal is very solid in possession. They maintain a lot of it and they don’t turn the ball over in bad spots. Remember the earlier comment on defense wins championships. The big concern for Montreal is the fitness of their two key attackers, Djorde Mihailovic and Romell Quitot. Mihalilovic wasn’t near as good the second half after he picked up an injury early this summer although he did score a goal and earn an assist on Decision Sunday. Quitot picked up an injury with national team duty for Honduras last month and has played since. With those two they could make a pretty stout run. Without them not so much. For Orlando it pretty much boils down to this. They have a negative goal differential. They have a bad draw in Montreal and probably go home after this match. Montreal wins this one at home. In fact I think Montreal meets the Union in the Conference Final.

Western Conference

LAFC

I’ll just get to the bottom line. They are good. Really good and I don’t see them getting knocked off before the Cup. Second best goal differential in the league behind the Union but they also play in the West which I believe is the better overall conference. The only blip on their run this year was a 6 match stretch mid-summer where they earned just a single win. While it didn’t cost them in the final standings it did dash their shot at the all time MLS season points record. I think they will take a Cup over that record anyway.

LA Galaxy – Nashville FC

One of the more interesting matches in the first round. Two solid teams with plenty of playoff experience. The Galaxy are a superb attacking team, well at least until they get near the goal mouth. Their finishing is abysmal. In fact if it was even near league average they would have finished probably second in the conference. They are that bad. But in order to be that bad they had to also generate a ton of chances and that they did. Nashville was once again stout defensively but not at the level of the last two years. But they know what it takes to win in the playoffs and CB Walker Zimmerman is still one the best. And Nashville had a winning record on the road. They will go to LA and not be shaking in their boots. For me this one is pretty much a toss up. But my heart lies with Nashville.

FC Dallas – Minnesota United

Dallas is sort of the opposite of the Galaxy. They actually finished very well scoring more goals than their Xg (expected goals). That is always a good thing come the playoffs when goals tend to be harder to come by. For Dallas fans the best news is their best in the west defense. Strong defense couple with better than expected finishing. What’s not to like here! Their goals will come from Jesus Ferriera, Paul Arriola, and Alan Velasco. And the first two are still strongly in the hunt for Qatar roster spots so they have plenty of motivation. While those guys aren’t the type of players to lift a team on their shoulders to make a deep run the combination of them along with Sebastian Lleget in the midfield could get them a bit of a run. Now for the Loons. Earlier this year they looked like one of the best teams in the west. Then the wheels fell off and they never quite recovered. They entered Decision Sunday on a 6 game winless skid and had to beat Vancouver to sneak into the playoffs. Now its the playoffs and anything can happen. But don’t bet on it Dallas is very good at home and Minnesota is only fair on the road. This one goes to Dallas.

Austin FC – Real Salt Lake

For a long stretch this season Austin looked like a serious contender for the Cup. Then August rolled around and they beat LAFC 4-1 and pundits were raving about their chances. Well as Lee Corso (College Football Game Day) likes to say “well not so fast”. They won only once the rest of the way. Now the talent is still there and they have the second leading goal scorer in Sebastian Driussi (22 goals). But their keeper, Brad Stuver, is untested in the playoffs. If he can continue his solid play Austin will be a tough out. Then there is RSL. A very interesting team. They are not flashy, in fact they play very pragmatic, fundamental soccer. Do all the little things well and hope thats a winning combination. The problem for them is that doing lots of little things well but not being able to do a big think on occasion couple with being a weak road team doesn’t bode well come playoff time. Austin should have enough playing at home in front of their fans to win this one.

So there it is. Its been a crazy MLS season and I hope the fun and games continue for the next several weeks. Again pay close attention to those teams that have guys still looking to make an impression for a final WC roster spot. That extra motivation might lead to some magic.

Steve Birrer
Steve Birrer

Soccer Analyst

Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.

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