2022 NCAA Tournament Preview

West Region

Usually the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, is given the easiest path to the Final 4, or it at least should be that way. That certainly was not the case for Gonzaga, as they have Duke in their region who already beat them, as well as tough teams like Texas Tech, Arkansas, and UConn. In addition whoever wins the 8-9 game between Boise St and Memphis would be a unique matchup for Gonzaga either way. Boise State Head Coach Leon Rice, was an Assistant Coach under Mark Few at Gonzaga for a decade and the two remain close to this day. So close that they refuse to schedule each other during the regular season, and it is certain that they would not want to play each other in the Round of 32. Memphis would also provide some possible matchup problems for Gonzaga. Historically Gonzaga big man Drew Timme has had a little bit of trouble playing against the bigger, quicker, NBA type big men. Memphis has exactly one of those in Jalen Duren, who is currently projected to be a Top 10 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. In addition, Memphis brings back a majority of the team that won last year’s NIT. While it is not NCAA Tournament experience, this Memphis team has been through a lot and honestly, has been one of the best teams in the country since heralded Freshman Emoni Bates stopped seeing consistent playing time. This is a Memphis team that can really pick off Gonzaga, if they are not careful.

As soon as the bracket was released, I had a gut feeling that neither Gonzaga or Duke would find a way to get to the Final 4. The #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, has not won the Tournament outright since Louisvlle in 2013. Duke will be a trendy pick for many considering it will be legendary Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final year roaming the sidelines. With the way Duke has played lately, it would be some heck of a story for them to go on a magic run and send their Coach out with a championship. At many points this season, that was looking like a very possible option, however Duke is such a young team and has been way too inconsistent. There is a legitimate argument to be made that Duke has the most talented roster in College Basketball with 4 likely future 1st round picks. However, there have been way too many times this season where Duke has proven they can’t be elite consistently or just fall in a close game they had no business losing. The possible matchup with Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 is not ideal for Duke. The Red Raiders are a team full of tough, older players with a chip on their shoulder, who are not afraid of anything.

The one team really standing out to me in this region is Arkansas. I’ve been on the Muss Buss since the Nevada days, when Coach Mussleman took the Wolfpack all the way to the Sweet 16 in 2018. Muss has done a phenomenal job since arriving in Fayetteville and has his program way ahead of schedule. Mussleman has been known to be a little bit ahead of the curve when it comes to building his teams through the Transfer Portal. Mussleman has turned guys like Cody Martin, Caleb Martin, and Jalen Harris into pros after taking them in from other schools. That is the case, when it comes to 2 members of this Arkansas team in JD Note and Stanley Umude, who both came from small schools respectively. Arkansas has won 15 out of their last 17 games while playing in the best Conference in College Basketball against the best competition. There have been many times this season, whether it was beating Kentucky and Auburn at home, or winning in Gainesville for the first time since 1995 there is something special brewing with this Arkansas team. This version of Arkansas is better than last year’s. A lot of people are making the trendy upset pick of taking Vermont over Arkansas, and while it is possible, I do not see it happening. Arkansas is so good at doing what they do best which is being aggressive as possible and putting pressure on you. As good as Vermont is, I’m not sure if they will be able to without an SEC team’s size and strength. This could be Eric Mussleman’s year to get to the Final 4, as he’s been trending upwards every single year since arriving in Fayetteville. Woo Pig Sooie all the way to New Orleans!

Prediction to win: Arkansas

East Region

It isn’t very often that a #1 seed and defending National Champion enters the tournament, being doubted by what feels like mostly everyone. However, that is the case with Scott Drew and Baylor, as they enter the NCAA Tournament continuing their roller coaster of a season. Just one year after losing multiple pros like Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, MaCio Teague and Mark Vital, Scott Drew getting another 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is an incredible accomplishment that should not be taken lightly. At one point in the season, Baylor looked like they had a realistic chance of being the first team to repeat as national Champions since the 2006 and 2007 Florida Gators. However, injuries have gotten in the way of that, as big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua was lost for the season in February with a leg injury. In addition, it was just announced that Guard LJ Cryer is out for the remainder of the season with a foot injury. This is the straw that really breaks the camel’s back for me when it comes to this Baylor team. Early in the season, when Baylor was playing at their absolute best and beating teams like Villanova and Michigan State badly, Cryer was a huge part of the mix. As Baylor’s leading scorer the Guard, was able to provide consistent offense off the bench and the unfortunate reality is that this Baylor team just doesn’t have much depth behind him. With only one key available bench player you can rely on outside the Starting 5, this Baylor team is a little too thin for my liking.

Kentucky enters the NCAA Tournament, a little bit under the radar. Off of the one line, Kentucky got as good of a draw as you can ask for. Matching up against either Purdue, Texas, or Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16 are all ideal matchups. The one worry would be a possible in-state rivalry game with Murray State, who has only lost two games all season and gave Auburn a pretty valid fight earlier in the season. At the end of the day though, Kentucky has one weapon that not many other teams will be able to stop and that’s Oscar Tshiebwe. You are not going to be able to stop Kentucky’s big man without fouling him, and his ability to single handedly absorb 15 rebounds a night is a legitimate game changer. In addition, Kentucky has so many guards that are capable of controlling the game by their ability to handle the ball. John Calipari feels comfortable with the rock in Sahvir Wheeler, TyTy Washington and Davion Mintz’ hands. Alongside a really good shooter in Kellan Grady and a dominant big man in Oscar, this Kentucky team has everything. Coach Calipari’s “Revenge Tour” is something that needs to be spoken about more, as it is about to become a major storyline in the month of March. Just one year after finishing 9-16 and missing the NCAA Tournament, Coach Cal put his team right back where they belong.

After Kentucky fans were not thrilled with the team’s performance and demanded staff changes, Cal took them into account.  Calipari has always been known as the coach who loves to bring in the “One and Done” NBA player. Part of the criticism of John Calipari in the past, has been that he cares more about his players getting to the NBA than winning. However, Calipari did a great job adjusting to today’s era of College Basketball, while using the Transfer Portal to his full advantage.

The other team in this region that deserves some respect is UCLA. Mick Cronin’s Bruins returned everyone from last year’s squad that went on a magical run all the way to the Final 4. I’m really looking forward to watching UCLA on the biggest stage, in the biggest games that matter most. The reason for this is because they are finally healthy and nothing out of their control should get away in a tournament setting. This UCLA team has dealt with adversity out of their control, since the early portion of the season. 30 day COVID pauses or playing in front of no fans, UCLA has been waiting for a moment to burst onto the scene the entire season. Mick Cronin has done a great job having his Bruins ready to play in the biggest games ever since he arrived in Westwood. UCLA performed really well in their bigger games of the season playing in front of crowds against Villanova, USC and Arizona. A team like this with so much tournament experience, that is well coached is absolutely going to be a factor. Right now UCLA has more depth, experience and confidence than Baylor and I expect them to ride that momentum all the way to the Elite 8 before the run stops against Kentucky.

Prediction to win: Kentucky

South Region

Arizona will enter the South Region as the #1 seed and the favorite to get to New Orleans. With that being said, the committee did not do them many favors by putting Villanova and Tennessee in their region, after both of them won their respective conference tournaments. In addition, Illinois is the #4 seed in this region and will be hungry to get to a second weekend after losing to Loyola Chicago in a very disappointing fashion. Houston is still ranked in the Top 5 of KenPom, and are fresh off a trip to the Final 4 last season. Arizona showed me a lot on Saturday Night in the second half of their Conference Championship game against UCLA. Arizona was coming off of two sub par performances against Stanford and Colorado to open the tournament. Their starting Point Guard Kerr Kriisa was also missing in the championship game and Arizona found themselves down by double digit points in the second half, before finding a way to win. Every time Arizona plays there are at least two or three times during the game, where they look like an NBA team and have a play that makes your mouth drop. Arizona has been one of the best teams in College Basketball since the start of the season. What makes that so impressive is the job that first year Head Coach Tommy Lloyd has done with a lot of Sean Miller’s former players. Lloyd has used his style of play and fluid offense to raise the level of play and talent of his team. Usually, it could be tough trusting a First Year Head Coach and a team that does not have much prior experience playing in the NCAA Tournament. With that being said Ben Mathurin is the kind of player that is made for March and is ready to take over this tournament. Not many teams have someone like Christian Koloko who has grown into a dominant force on both ends and has a legitimate argument for the most improved players in College Basketball.

If anyone had a legit argument to take down Arizona, it would be the one team in this region that beat them earlier in the season, Tennessee. Rick Barnes’ Vols are fresh off of their first SEC Tournament Title since 1979 and Barnes has reminded everyone in the process just how good of a coach he really is. The Vols guard play and play making ability has improved so much throughout the course of the season, as Tennessee’s offense has finally come closer to matching their already elite defense. The one worry for Tennessee is that their guards are really young and inexperienced which could be an important factor against the experience of Villanova in a possible Sweet 16 game. On one hand, Tennessee does have the length and athleticism to completely wear down Villanova down their size. On the other hand, it is always hard betting against Jay Wright in March and as great of a Coach as Rick Barnes is, his teams have not been historically great in the tournament.

At the end of the day Arizona’s size will overwhelm Villanova in an Elite 8 matchup for the ages, and the committee absolutely stacked this region. If either Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee or Illinois were playing in any other legion, there would be a good chance I would pick them to end up in New Orleans. However, Arizona has been the most consistent team throughout, with tremendous size and athleticism to give them the edge here.

Prediction to win: Arizona

Midwest Region

Out of any of the four regions in the field the Midwest is the weakest, which should technically lead to a somewhat easy road for Kansas. However, there is one team that stands in their way that I want absolutely no part of betting against right now and it’s the Iowa Hawkeyes. I’ve been someone who’s been very skeptical of Fran McCaffrey and his team’s ability to make deep tournament runs in the NCAA Tournament. Historically, Fran’s teams have developed the reputation of playing their worst basketball of the season at the absolute worst time. With that being said, this Iowa team is playing so well right now that there is a legitimate argument to be made they are currently the second best team in the Midwest region behind Kansas. However, there is not a player in College Basketball playing better than Iowa’s Keegan Murray. The future NBA Lottery pick led Iowa to their first Big Ten Tournament Title since 2006. Alongside Murray, Iowa has a veteran experienced guard in Jordan Bohannon, who has played in 143 College Basketball games over the course of his career, which is an NCAA record. That experience came in handy on Saturday in the Big Ten Quarterfinals against Indiana, when Bohannon hit a long three at basically the buzzer, to secure the win for the Hawkeyes. The Big Ten needs at least one team in this year’s Final 4 in the absolute worst way, after its disastrous and disappointing showing a year ago.

Kansas will be the #1 seed in the after beating Texas Tech on Saturday, in the Big 12 Title Game. Kansas is well deserving of being the top dog in this region, considering they won both the Big 12 Regular Season and Tournament Titles. The one thing about is Kansas team, is that even though they are a #1 seed and Bill Self is still running things, their overall level of talent isn’t great compared to other great Kansas teams of the past. Since the FBI Trial, Kansas hasn’t been recruiting the same level of high caliber, one and done prospects. Instead Bill Self has taken advantage of just how good of a coach and player developer he is. Ochai Agbaji is one of the 5 best players in College Basketball right now, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that it’s his 4th year in the program. In addition guys like Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson and Dajuan Harris know exactly what Bill Self is expecting.

 The one ex factor for this Kansas team, could be Arizona State Transfer and Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Remy Martin. After battling injuries throughout the season and failing to find a role, Remy has started to play much better of late. That included 12 points in 26 minutes of action, off the bench in Saturday’s win. Despite being the favorites, Kansas is missing that next level speed to put them over the top, and a player like Martin could provide that. Despite not being the best NCAA Tournament coach historically, there are very few coaches that are better than Bill Self, as he is a legitimate weapon in the month of March.

Auburn will enter as not only the #2 seed in the Midwest, but also as the second favorite on the board. Auburn is a prime example of why, where you are seeded matters when it comes to your chances of getting to the Final 4. There wasn’t anyone who watched Auburn get run off the floor by Texas A & M on Friday, and thought “This is a team I’m picking to go to the Final 4.” With that being said, Auburn could not have asked for a more favorable draw, and have a very good chance of getting to the Final 4. Assuming they handle Jacksonville State in the first round, Auburn will get either USC or Miami who both possess possible matchup issues, but overall Auburn is better. Having Wisconsin as the #3 seed in your region, especially compared to Tennessee and Texas Tech is also a win for Auburn, especially with Johnny Davis not at 100%.

Auburn’s guards have not been great lately, as KD Johnson shot 0/14 from the field against A&M and Wendell Green is the definition of inconsistent. With that being said, Auburn still has the best frontcourt in the country that could lead the way for a deep run. Jabari Smith is still the likely option for #1 overall pick in the draft, Walker Kessler as a legitimate rim protector is a huge weapon, and Brue Pearl knows what it takes to get to the Final 4. An easier draw to the Elite 8 compared to others, should help this Auburn team gain some confidence, and build momentum as they hope for a run to New Orleans.

Prediction to win: Iowa

National Championship Pick; Kentucky over Arizona

John Caliapri will officially complete the revenge tour and his Wildcats will cut down the nets. Kentucky is the only team in College Basketball winning 6 games with 6 completely different styles of play, thanks to the versatility of their guards. Go Big Blue! (Full Bracket Found Below)