2022 NFL: Week 1 and Season Predictions

“I’m 45 years old, man. There’s a lot of s*** going on.”

Ain’t that the sad truth. With the 2022 NFL regular season upon us, it seems as though everyone involved in pro football is going through it. But none more so than Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. The man with seven Super Bowl rings and a spot reserved in Canton.

He has been so dominant that him not being a part of the NFL Kickoff game on Thursday night feels odd. Like we’re being forced to watch understudies take the stage instead of the star.

So, what happened? It’s quite the rollercoaster ride. After Brady and the Buccaneers lost in the divisional round last postseason, he announced his retirement. Then he unretired. Then the story came out that he was involved in tampering (twice) with the Miami Dolphins. For most people, that would be enough drama for a year. But this is the GOAT we’re talking about. He doesn’t do anything small.

Buccaneers training camp started and while things trucked along fine for a little bit, eyebrows suddenly shot up when it was announced that Tom was leaving the team for what turned out to be an 11-day absence for “personal” reasons. Media speculation turned up to 11. Why did he take off? Is everything OK? What happened?! Are players allowed to just leave a team during camp like that?

What started to leak out was that Tom’s home life had hit a roadblock. You see, his wife Gisele Bundchen has had just about enough of her husband’s nonsense. She wants him to retire. In fact, she’s wanted that for quite some time. It appears as though Tom had told her many times that he would hang up his cleats and be more present at home. And while I’m no expert (trust me), anyone with experience can tell you that not living up to your word is among the worst things you can do in a marriage. If one person can’t be trusted, the union is ultimately meaningless.

And I don’t want to hear any garbage like, “Oh, she should be more patient and let him pursue his passion for as long as he wants.” She’s been supportive and has been by his side, but they have kids together. She’d like a partner at home, not a robot who spends every waking hour watching film, having his annoying personal trainer constantly around and eating avocado ice cream like a weirdo. And don’t forget, she’s no slouch. She’s arguably the most famous supermodel in the world. Not in Florida. Not in the Midwest. Not even in the country. THE WORLD. Maybe she’d like to go off and do some work herself, no? Pursue some of the passions that she’s put off to be a full-time mom? Enough is enough.

So, when Tom told Jim Gray on a podcast that there’s “a lot of s*** going on,” truer words have never been spoken. And quite frankly, it makes me like him more. I find it heartwarming that the most successful player in NFL history, who is fawned over and admired from Hawaii to Maine, who can probably get a table at any restaurant in the country at a moment’s notice, still has to answer to somebody. Still has people who don’t look at him as anything but a husband, dad, brother or son.

Celebrities! They’re just like us!

Now that I’ve got that off my chest, I almost forgot that football is back, baby! Let’s get to some predictions shall we?

SEASON PREDICTIONS

NFL MVP: Josh Allen

I’m not exactly going out on a limb here. Vegas Insider has the Bills quarterback going off at +600 to win the award, beating out Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 4,400 yards passing and 35 touchdown tosses. And while his passer rating and completion percentage dipped slightly in 2021 compared to the year before, he’s undoubtedly a stud and has silenced the snarky doubters (still employed by an unnamed major sports network) that pooh-pooh’d him coming out of college.

Expect Allen to start the march to the prize and a possible Super Bowl on Thursday night. But more on that later.

By way, if I had any guts, I would have picked Russell Wilson, who somehow has worse odds to win MVP than Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance. Huh? But I’m of weak character, so I’m going with the safe pick.

Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa

One of my complaints about this award is that it often goes to a guy who compiles a lot of sacks, which can be a misleading statistic. I find it amusing that a player can get a mudhole stomped in him for 99 percent of his snaps, but makes one swim move on an off-balance offensive lineman and suddenly he’s the second coming of Lawrence Taylor.

And when you look at the odds, Vegas Insider has the usual suspects at the top of the list. Myles Garrett is No. 1, followed closely by Aaron Donald and T.J. Watt. Bosa has the fifth-best odds, but the 49ers defensive end could be in store for a big leap, even after finishing with 15.5 sacks and a league-high 21 tackles for loss (a more meaningful stat) in 2021.

Look no further than The Athletic, which published a profile of the kind that always makes me roll my eyes. Every year I read dozens of stories about players who have gained pounds of muscle during the offseason. Usually it amounts to nothing. But in this case, reading that Bosa has dropped down to 9 percent body fat and has also increased his speed makes me pause. If you don’t believe me, just ask 49ers offensive tackle Mike McGlinchy, who has had a closeup view of his teammate’s progress.

“It was like, ‘Oh, he got even faster,’” McGlinchey said, after Bosa whizzed by him during one practice rep.

Yikes. You’ve been warned, opposing quarterbacks.

Now, would I be surprised if Aaron Donald wins the award for a fourth time? No, of course not. Donald is that good. But voters like to spread the wealth around, if possible. This could be Bosa’s year. Let’s hope that offseason work pays off.

NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS: Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Packers, Cowboys, Eagles

The conference isn’t as strong as it has been in recent years. And even among the teams I have slated to reach the postseason, I don’t feel great about the Cowboys. Their defense should be strong, but their offense has way too many question marks, not the least of which is the loss of left tackle Tyron Smith (again) to injury.

The NFC West is the best division in the conference and should get three teams into the playoffs again. The NFC South is just blah outside of Tampa. The NFC North is also a one-team race with Green Bay and its ayahuasca-taking, MRNA vaccine-allergic, defending MVP quarterback (I forget his name) leading the pack (pun intended).

And while the NFC East should get two teams into the tournament, I picked Philly and Dallas by default. What I’ve seen out of the New York Giants and Washington Commanders (going to take some getting used to) hasn’t been enough to make them seem real as playoff contenders. At least not yet.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Rams at Buccaneers

I went back and looked to see who I had here last year, and voila, it was these two teams. And I wasn’t completely wrong because L.A. and Tampa did face off in the playoffs, but it was just in the divisional round.

And despite all of Brady’s personal issues that I recounted above, I still believe he can do enough in a watered down conference to reach the title game. Even though he lost Rob Gronkowski to retirement (for now). Even though his offensive line, decimated by injuries, is a complete mess. It’s going to be a challenge, for sure. How do I know that? Because Tom said so.

“It’s gonna be a challenge,” Brady said (h/t to NFL.com). “I’d definitely say that’s every team’s challenge at different times in the year. You deal with injuries early, you deal with injuries late, you deal with them all year.”

And yet, I have confidence that Brady and the Buccaneers (with new head coach Todd Bowles) will survive some early season bumps and bruises and find a way to pull it together come January.

AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS: Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Colts, Titans, Ravens, Bills

We’re inevitably going to get talk when the playoffs arrive that this conference’s title game will be the “real Super Bowl.” I usually stiff-arm such comments and send them to the realm of reactionary dummies. But this year, I don’t have such an arrogant attitude. You can make the argument that 10 AFC teams have a legit shot at the playoffs.

Missing from my picks are the Bengals. Yes, they’re coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Yes, Joe Burrow is a real star in this league with a young core around him that will only improve. But I also feel that last season’s march to the Super Bowl was paved with good fortune. Cincinnati got the lucky bounces, had division foes like the Ravens suffer a rash of injuries and to its credit, took advantage.

That won’t happen this season. Teams are gunning for the Bengals and will bring the heat every week. And of course, don’t forget about the hangover that often falls on the Super Bowl loser.

The AFC West is the best division in football. You can make the argument that all four teams can make the playoffs, but I stopped short. The AFC North is really a two-team race between the Bengals and Ravens. The Browns have their Deshaun Watson problem and the Steelers are going to start the season with Mitch Trubisky under center. Maybe he’ll be better … but would you put money on that? Me neither.

The Bills have the AFC East on lockdown as the Patriots and Jets aren’t realistic contenders yet, and while the Dolphins do have talent and a new head coach with an excellent reputation in Mike McDaniel, there is still a big question mark hanging over the organization. Tua Tugavailoa has talent, but I need to know that he can get 12 yards on third-and-10, instead of 8. Until he proves that he can do that consistently, Miami’s future is still murky despite their roster improvements.

AFC Championship Game: Chiefs at Bills

I’m so basic. All these solid teams to choose from, yet the heart wants what it wants. I think Richard Nixon said that. Or maybe it was Selena Gomez. No, it was probably Nixon … but I digress.

The football-watching world had their breath taken away by the epic divisional round clash between these two teams. The one that ended with seemingly 73 touchdowns in a five-minute span. And while Kansas City ended up prevailing in that game, the tables will be turned. Because with the Chiefs playing in a loaded division, they will likely have to travel to Buffalo for this playoff rematch. Hope you’re ready, Bills Mafia.

Super Bowl: Buccaneers vs. Bills

If you’ve followed me at all over the past few years, you’ll know I have one overriding mantra: I never bet against Tom Brady. Despite everything that is stacked against him, I’m picking him to beat the Rams in the NFC title game and then follow that two weeks later with a performance that will catapult him into a final retirement and the life that his wife and family wants. No regrets, nothing left on the table. Good night and good luck.

Winner: Buccaneers.

WHAT’S THE CHATTER?

Feeling of dread: I’m pretty nervous. Big Cat from the Pardon My Take podcast made me laugh when he said that he hates when his team plays in a primetime game. That’s because there’s nowhere to hide. If your team lays an egg on national television, all the comedians come out of nowhere to post mocking memes, tweets, Instagrams, Tiktoks, you name it. I know the feeling well, having seen my Rams get destroyed at home on Monday Night Football last season. And with those same Rams going up against a possible Super Bowl team in the Bills on Thursday night, the tension has been ratcheted up. There’s nothing like watching your team hoist a championship banner only to get stomped right after. And I have a sinking feeling that’s what’s in store for L.A. Hope I’m wrong.

What year is this?! The Jets got some bad luck when second-year quarterback Zach Wilson suffered an injury during the preseason. He’s on the mend, but won’t be ready for Week 1. That means, New York will turn to its backup against the Ravens on Sunday. And looking at my list it appears that man is … JOE FLACCO?!?! Welp, my Baltimore brethren, your prodigal son has returned. Hope you didn’t forget what that man did for the city. And I’d be lying if I said it wouldn’t be funny if Flacco led Gang Green to the win.

Yes, we know: Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said running back Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are “definitely a tandem” (h/t to ProFootballTalk) this season. In case you’ve been living on Mars with no communication with Earth, you’ve noticed Elliott’s decreasing output over the recent seasons. So if you drafted Zeke with an early round pick in fantasy football (like I did), expect to get aggravated watching Pollard vulture touches more and more.

APPOINTMENT VIEWING FOR WEEK 1

Bills at Rams: If you need a reason to watch this game, maybe football isn’t for you. The storylines write themselves. There’s no need for deep analysis. It’s the defending champs against what could be the next Super Bowl winner. Let’s get it on!

Steelers at Bengals: Will this be the year that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin finally finishes under .500? There have been a few close calls, but he’s always managed to avoid that fate. If he does it again in 2022, just put him in the damn Hall of Fame.

Eagles at Lions: If Detroit wins, I want to see head coach Dan Campbell do 15 celebratory up-downs at midfield.

Patriots at Dolphins: Bill Belichick teams have had a tough time in South Florida over the years. And with a new era, of sorts, starting off in Miami, this should be a fun one.

Ravens at Jets: You have to keep an eye on the Flacco Bowl.

Jaguars at Commanders: Both these teams have British sounding names. Oh, and Carson Wentz is in D.C. now. Give it a watch. For a little while, then change to something better.

Packers at Vikings: Watching this game will give us more insight on Minnesota, a team that I can’t get a handle on yet.

Chiefs at Cardinals: Tasty matchup in the Sunday PM window. Speaking of mysterious teams, there’s been a noticeable lack of buzz coming out of the desert. Kyler Muray got his money, now let’s see if he can keep his head coach from being fired. A win at home against a Super Bowl contender should help.

Raiders at Chargers: This game has some serious sizzle and should set the tone for an amazing division race.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: These two teams played in the season opener last year. Now they’ve got the first Sunday night matchup of the season. Love it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Russell Wilson already visiting his former home? Grab your popcorn. I can’t wait to see the reception the 12s give him.