Happy New Year! We made it.
The NFL season officially begins tonight when the Lions face-off against the Chiefs in Kansas City. That game will be very entertaining for multiple reasons. First, Patrick Mahomes will play. When the best player in the sport takes the field, eyes will be glued to the screen.
Then you have the intrigue around All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce’s status. Will he play? Will he be limited if he plays? Can Mahomes, in his greatness, thrive without Tyreek Hill and Kelce?
As far as the Lions go, you know they won’t be phased by the atmosphere. They are playing to win. The fact that these two teams are in different conferences means they play once every four years. That means Mahomes hasn’t played a Dan Campbell-led team before. Assuredly both will have some surprises in store for the other.
The Ravens/Texans game will have a similar amount of excitement to it. Baltimore hosts Houston in what has literally been a one-sided series. The Texans are 0-6 when playing in Baltimore, losing by a combined score of 159-74. The Texans’ have never reached the 17-point mark when playing at M&T Bank Stadium. In the two games the Ravens have played against the Texans when led by Lamar Jackson, the former MVP is 2-0, having thrown 5 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and rushing for 133 yards.
Houston comes into town with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback leading the charge. On the surface, that suggests this series trend won’t be altered come Sunday afternoon. That said, I guarantee this game will be far from an easy win.
DeMeco Ryans takes the reigns as Houston head coach having just coordinated the best defense in football. In 2022, the 49ers were tops in yards allowed and points allowed. Ryans is only trending upward and, like Campbell, will have his men ready to go.
It’s not just a fierce determination he’s bringing to the table. Ryans has some dawgs on defense. Derek Stingley, Jr., in just his 2nd pro season, is already one of the best cornerbacks in the game. Jimmy Ward (former 49er) and Jalen Pitre comprise a stud safety combo. Will Anderson, Jr., 2023’s 3rd overall pick, slots in as their best edge rusher. Anderson is joined by fellow Alabama product (Ryan’s alma mater) inside linebacker Christian Harris.
That said, all these pieces have yet to play together. As much talent as they have in Houston, I question their ability to put it all together right away. Once the ball is kicked this Sunday, there will be no time to waste. Advantage: Ravens.
This feels like a game the Ravens will lead early, but also like a game in which the Texans will always be in (similar to Baltimore’s 2019 home opener against Arizona). At last check, Baltimore was favored by 9 1/2 points, and I think they cover, but I don’t think they will blow Houston out. I predict a game that’s hovering around a 1-score difference throughout.
Specific matchups to watch:
- Roquan Smith vs. Dameon Pierce (Ravens linebackers vs. Texans run scheme)
- Pierce is probably Houston’s best offensive player, and with a rookie quarterback starting his first game on the road, Ryan figures to lean on his run game often this week.
- With a full offseason under Mike Macdonald’s tutelage, Smith figures to come out of the gate strong, fully focused. He knows Pierce is a very good player and will prepare accordingly.
- Patrick Queen/Kyle Hamilton vs. Dalton Schultz (Ravens inside linebackers/safeties vs. Texans tight ends)
- A quarterback’s best friend is a solid offensive line. His next best friend is a capable tight end. Schultz comes to Houston from up north, having played for the Cowboys for the first five years of his career—the last three of which were as a full-time starter. Since 2020, Schultz gained 2,000 receiving yards and scored 17 receiving touchdowns. Make no mistake, he is a threat.
- Queen, Hamilton, and perhaps Brandon Stephens will have to be on the same page in order to prohibit Schultz from gaining momentum. Even if Schultz doesn’t make the big play, if he’s able to keep the Texans on schedule in terms of down and distance, Stroud will gain confidence. Thankfully, Macdonald is skilled at identifying the opposition’s biggest threat and preventing them from beating his defense.
- LSU vs. LSU—Beckham, Jr. vs. Stingley, Jr.
- These two former Tigers have a lot in common. Beckham (5’11”, 200 lbs.) and Stingley (6’0”, 190 lbs.) both attended LSU and were 1st-round picks, just eight years apart, after being named 1st-team All-Americans.
- There’s a very good likelihood they’ll be matched up against each other on Sunday, with both relishing the opportunity to prove their dominance.
Again, this figures to be a game that doesn’t adversely test the Ravens, but one they can’t quite put away. I’m predicting a 28-17 Baltimore win, and the following fantasy football outputs from these key players:
Lamar Jackson: 21/26, 300 yards, 2 TD; 8 carries, 65 yards, TD (42.5 fantasy points)
Odell Beckham, Jr.: 6 catches, 65 yards, TD; 2 carries, 21 yards (14.6 fantasy points)
C.J. Stroud: 18/39, 242 yards, TD, 3 INT; 5 carries, 21 yards (12.1 fantasy points)
Dalton Schultz: 9 catches, 88 yards, TD (14.8 fantasy points)
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.