In the NFL, it typically takes years to gain the perspective necessary to fully judge a draft class. Teams select prospects primarily on the basis of their long-term outlook, and often that potential doesn’t manifest on the field during a player’s rookie season.

Still, for the Baltimore Ravens, first-year contributions from their rookie class matter. Not only does the team enter 2023 with justifiable Super Bowl aspirations, but the pressure to deliver the first playoff victory of the Lamar Jackson era has only heightened since the superstar quarterback signed his massive extension.

For the Ravens to break through this season, at least some of their rookies will have to step into significant roles and make a difference. But some first-year players have better chances of delivering that impact than others. Draft position dictates opportunity to a certain degree, but Baltimore’s depth chart will also provide clearer paths to the field at certain positions. And, of course, prospects don’t enter the NFL at the same stage of development.

Accounting for all those factors — though not for future injuries given the unpredictable nature of player health — here’s a subjective ranking of the Ravens’ newly minted draft picks in terms of likeliness to play a meaningful role this season.

6. Andrew Vorhees, OL, USC

Though late-round offensive linemen rarely make a considerable Year 1 impact, Vorhees finds himself here by default. The mammoth USC product tore his ACL during drill work at the NFL Scouting Combine, dramatically shifting the trajectory of the rest of his draft process and turning 2023 into a de facto redshirt year. If not for the injury, Vorhees could have realistically come off the board among the top 100 picks. Obviously, the situation didn’t unfold ideally for the player, but the Ravens can monitor his recovery and, assuming no setbacks, throw him into competition for a starting job next year.

5. Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu, OL, Oregon

As touched on above, late-round linemen like Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu must overcome considerable challenges to make major contributions as rookies. Aumavae-Laulu doesn’t have a major injury that will keep him off the field like Voorhees’ ACL tear, but that doesn’t mean the Oregon product has so much as a guaranteed roster spot. Even if Aumavae-Laulu makes the 53-man roster, the Ravens will still likely have multiple backups ahead of him, barring injury. That means Aumavae-Laulu could spend his entire rookie season on the inactive list.

4. Tavius Robinson, OLB, Ole Miss

On paper, Tavius Robinson fits the mold of the prototypical Ravens Day 3 pass rusher. The Ole Miss product got dinged in the draft process after running poorly in the agility drills — 4.62 seconds in the short shuttle, 7.4 seconds in the three-cone drill — but possesses good size and delivered strong productivity in college once he became a full-time starter. That profile bodes well for his future prospects, but he begins as no better than the fourth edge rusher in the rotation. SEC pass rushers taken on Day 3 have found ways to produce as rookies (Kingsley Enagbare just this past season), but Robinson has a tougher path to meaningful playing time.

3. Kyu Blu Kelly, CB, Stanford

Unlike Robinson, fifth-round pick Kyu Blu Kelly has to overcome fewer obstacles to see the field. At present, the Ravens have a clear No. 1 corner (Marlon Humphrey), a veteran journeyman on his third team signed this offseason for a nominal price (Rock-Ya Sin), and little else in the way of proven players. Brandon Stephens and Damarion Williams each played less than 50% of Baltimore’s defensive snaps last season while then-rookie Jalyn Armour-Davis saw just 50 defensive snaps full stop. Enter Kelly who offers fantastic size for the position (6-foot, 191 pounds) as well as an impressive athletic profile (Relative Athletic Score of 8.76 out of 10). He also served as a multiyear starter at Stanford which should lessen the learning curve to a certain degree as he adjusts to the NFL.

2. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Though the Ravens used their top pick on Boston College’s Zay Flowers, he doesn’t automatically become the top-used rookie in their draft class. For starters, Baltimore hasn’t exactly operated a wide-open passing offense with Jackson under center, and that will only change so much under new OC Todd Monken. In terms of the target pecking order, Flowers will at least begin his NFL career behind Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham Jr. Barring injury to one or more of that trio, the number of opportunities available to Flowers in 2023 appears more limited than his draft slot suggests. That said, the floor for his production still puts him ahead of all but one other member of this draft class.

1. Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson

The Ravens have invested heavily at inside linebacker in recent years, but not all those investments have worked out. Patrick Queen, a 2020 first-round pick, had his fifth-year option declined earlier this week and appears on his way out of Baltimore. Malik Harrison, a third-round selection the same year, has never played more than 25% of the defensive snaps in any season. Their shortcomings pushed general manager Eric DeCosta to make the Roquan Smith trade last October.

While Smith has signed a long-term extension and will serve as a defensive fixture for years to come, the Ravens clearly prefer to give him a new running mate. Clemson’s Trenton Simpson has a chance to become that player and do so as a rookie. Simpson rates as a truly premier athlete for the position (9.84 RAS) and enters the NFL with multiple seasons of starting experience. Though he will begin his Baltimore tenure behind Queen, that could quickly change. Given the front office’s lack of faith in Queen, perhaps Simpson can overcome that hurdle before the end of September.

Jason B. Hirschhorn
Jason B. Hirschhorn

Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He has bylines at NFL.com, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, and other outlets.

X