2024 NFL: Previewing Week 11

Later tonight the Dolphins at Rams will end Week 10.

Let’s review the rest of the Week, and look ahead to Week 11.

Week 10 Quick Hits

Ravens 35 Bengals 34 – Gave our larger thoughts on this game here. Focusing on the Bengals, even at 4-6 they’re still in decent position for the AFC’s 7th seed. The race will be them, Denver, and Indianapolis, with the Broncos currently being a game ahead.

Panthers 20 Giants 17 – An OT win for Carolina in Germany. The Panthers improved to 3-7. Back-to-back wins for Carolina now after beating the Saints last week. They aren’t good obviously, but I was looking at Carolina as one of the worst teams of the last decade, so they get some credit for showing a little pride lately. Fresh off the extension, RB Chubb Hubbard had 153 yards and a TD on 28 carries.

Patriots 19 Bears 3 – New England has looked like a legitimate NFL team since Drake Maye became the starter. The Bears have been sleep-walking since their hail mary loss to DC. Caleb Williams only had 120 yards on 30 attempts. New England sacked Williams 9 times!  I don’t want to bury Williams too much. He’s a rookie, and clearly his line isn’t very good. It’s understood there will be growing pains. But Williams does have quality skill position talent surrounding him. 12 points in two weeks is rough. Over the last 6 games, they’ve averaged just 12 points a game. Rookie or not, poor line or not; that’s still disappointing.

Bills 30 Colts 20 – Buffalo improved to 8-2 with their 5 consecutive win. The Bills defense has 4 sacks, and 3 picks. One of the interceptions being a Pick 6. The Colts might back into the 7th seed in the AFC Playoffs, but this isn’t a legitimate contender. Giving 39 year old Joe Flacco these starts over their 2nd year 22 year old QB Anthony Richardson doesn’t make a ton of sense in that context. They should be giving Richardson as much experience as possible. If he played the next 7 weeks, and didn’t show any progression; you’d understand the Colts looking for another answer before next year.  As is, if they roll with Flacco the rest of the way; they’ll either not make the playoffs or they’ll make it and be out in the Wild Card Round. Then they’d go to the off-season with Richardson having 10 total starts over his first two seasons, and really not knowing what they have there.

Chiefs 16 Broncos 14 – KC wins again, improving to 9-0.  Chiefs get the win, with a last second block on Denver’s attempted Field Gold attempt as time expired. The game got away from the Broncos last week in Baltimore, but another competitive showing for Denver here. I’ve seen people calling KC lucky. To me it’s not luck, they know how to win. What I think is fair to say about them at this point, is that their margin for error is pretty limited. One thing to note, just 35 yards rushing on 14 attempts for Kareem Hunt. They could use Isiah Pacheco back, and the reports are that he is close to returning to practice.

Saints 20 Falcons 17 – Pretty disappointing loss for Atlanta.  Yes, division games are typically a fight. Yes, the Saints had a new Coach; but this was just a missed opportunity for the Falcons. Bijan Robinson had 116 yards on 20 attempts in the losing effort.

49ers 23 Buccaneers 20 – Christian McCaffrey was back and had 39 yards rushing, and another 68 yards receiving. San Francisco wins with Jake Moody going 3 of 6 on his Field Goal attempts.

Steelers 28 Commanders 27 – The best game of the week.  Pittsburgh had a ton of fans on hand in DC.  Russell Wilson had 3 TD’s for the Steelers, the best one coming when he found Mike Williams for 32 yards with 2 and a half minutes left for the lead. The Steelers had more success rushing with Jaylen Warren vs. Najee Harris. George Pickens’ yards per catch is way up the last 3 weeks. One negative yesterday for Pittsburgh is that it looks like Alex Highsmith might miss time with an ankle injury.  On the Commanders side, their 3 game winning streak ended. They did get another 2 sacks from Dante Fowler.

Vikings 12 Jaguars 7 – Minnesota improved to 7-2 overall, and 3-1 on the road with their win. 43 rushing attempts for 169 yards for the Vikings. TE TJ Hockenson (who returned from injury last week) had 8 catches on 9 targets for 72 yards. Minnesota had 3 sacks and 2 picks. Which they needed as Sam Darnold was picked 3 times.

Chargers 27 Titans 17 – LA is now 6-3 overall, and 3-1 at home. Gus Edwards was back for the first time since Sept. 29th, and had 10 carries for 55 yards. 7 sacks for the Chargers defense. Another loss for the Titans, but Will Levis had a solid game going 18 of 23, with 2 TD’s.

Eagles 34 Cowboys 6 – Cooper Rush was 13 of 23 for 45 yards, and somehow Micah Parson managed be more embarrassing with his post-game comments than Rush’s stat line. That was a 5th consecutive win for Philadelphia, as the Eagles are now 7-2 overall, and 4-1 on the road. 5 catches and 109 yards for AJ Brown.

Cardinals 31 Jets 6 – New York is now 1-5 on the road. Aaron Rodgers had just 151 yards on his 35 attempts. Given the expectations that existed, it’s wild how bad this season has gone for the Jets. Arizona is pretty quietly now 6-4 overall, and 4-2 at home.

Lions 26 Texans 23 – The theme of the week was finding a way, and that was exemplified best with Detroit.  Jared Goff had 5 picks. and Detroit was down 23-7 at halftime. Still, they were able to come back and win. The Lions are now 8-1 overall, and 5-0 on the road. Houston is probably going to be the 4th seed in the AFC. Detroit was able to hold Joe Mixon to 46 yards on 25 carries. Houston’s WR John Metchie had the best game of his young career with 5 catches, 74 yards, and a score. He should get more opportunities down the stretch.

Week 11 Games

All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Thursday November 14th

DC at Philadelphia – The Commanders head to Philadelphia in a battle for the NFC East.  The Eagles are 7-2, have won their last 5, and have outscored teams by 72 points. DC is 7-3, and have outscored teams by 73 points. This is the first match-up this year of these teams. The Eagles are given a 58.4% chance of winning this game, and are a 3 point favorite.

Sunday November 17th

Green Bay at Chicago – Coming off their bye, I’d expect the Packers to win here. Especially with how the Bears have played the last couple of weeks.

Jacksonville at Detroit – The Lions are a 13 point favorite, and are given an 81% chance of extending their winning streak to 8 games.

Minnesota at Tennessee – The Vikings go back on the road to face another AFC South team for the second week in a row. You’d like to see Minnesota look better this week.

Las Vegas at Miami – If the Dolphins were able to beat the Rams tonight, this would be an opportunity for them to get to 4-6. As is, Miami is 1-3 at home, while Vegas is 1-4 on the road. The Dolphins are given a 62.5% chance of winning.

LA Rams at New England – The Rams are 4-4 going into their game tonight vs. Miami. New England has won 2 of their last 3. LA is currently a 5 point favorite here.

Cleveland at New Orleans – Woof.

Indianapolis at New York Jets – The Colts are 4-6, and the Jets are 3-7.  As I said above, maybe Indianapolis can back into the 7th spot in the AFC Playoffs, but they’re going nowhere. New York is a trainwreck. If the Jets have any remaining aspirations of still making the playoffs, they have to win this game and have the direct head-to-head vs one of the teams ahead of them.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – The 7-3 Ravens face the 7-2 Steelers for 1st in the AFC North. The Ravens are a 3.5 point favorites, and are a 61.9% favorite to get the road win.

Atlanta at Denver – One of the more interesting games of the week. Denver is a 2.5 point favorite, but Atlanta is given a 57.8% chance of winning.

Seattle at San Francisco – The 49ers won in Seattle about a month ago.  If SF wins here, the NFC West becomes a bit more clear. SF is a 6.5 point favorite.

Kansas City at Buffalo – The undefeated Chiefs travel to Buffalo to face the 8-2 Bills (4-0 at home). Curious to see how the Bills running attack does against the KC defense. Buffalo is a 2.5 point favorite, and given a 54.3% chance of winning.

Cincinnati at LA Chargers – We’ve outlined that the Bengals still have a good path to reaching the post-season, but they’ve got start adding some wins. They bring their passing attack to LA, to face a physical Chargers team.  How many times does the Chargers defense get to Joe Burrow?

Monday November 18th

Houston at Dallas – The Cowboys are 0-4 at home. They’ve lost Prescott for the season. Their lines are a mess. They’ve now got internal infighting. And under the Monday Night lights they figure to get destroyed by their in-state rival. Fun times in Jerry World.