2024 NFL: Previewing Week 17

It’s the penultimate week of the NFL’s 2024 regular season, with games (Kansas City at Pittsburgh, Ravens at Houston) kicking off tomorrow on Christmas Day.

It’s said that nothing can kill the insatiable American appetite for the NFL; that will be put to the test this week with games nearly everyday.

Week 17 Games

All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Wednesday December 25th

Kansas City at Pittsburgh – The 14-1 Chiefs in Pittsburgh to face the 10-5 Steelers. The quandary type of game for Ravens fans, where you have the natural inclination to want to root against both teams. That said, Baltimore fans will be solidly Chiefs fans tomorrow as the Ravens try to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh entered the year believing they had a strong defense, and if they got reasonable / middle-of-the-pack play at QB from Russell Wilson and Justin Fields they could be a playoff team. And that’s what happened. When they reached 10-3, it seemed that expectations were being raised on them, and some were calling the Steelers a pseudo-contender.  Ehh.  They’re a playoff team. They could be an uncomfortable match-up vs. anyone for a game. It’s harder to envision them winning multiple playoff games. One of the primary reasons to doubt their ceiling, is the overall lack of playmakers. Lucky for them, they do get back George Pickens tomorrow. I expect KC to win tomorrow, but this is a winnable game for Pittsburgh.  Should be low scoring. If the Steelers can run, they can keep extending the game, and maybe steal it late. That said, Pittsburgh has given up 61 points the last two weeks vs. the Eagles and Ravens. KC is a 3 point favorite, and the Chiefs are given a 55.4% chance of winning.

Baltimore at Houston – Gave some longer thoughts here.  Quick take? I think is Houston is generally underrated, but I expect the Ravens to win.

Thursday December 26th

Seattle at Chicago – While not mathematically eliminated, Seattle’s playoff hopes are pretty minimal (15%) at this point. Obviously they have to win this game against the Bears. The Seahawks had won 4 straight before losing the last two weeks vs. Green Bay and Minnesota. Will the NFC North extend Seattle’s pain to three weeks in a row?

Saturday December 28th

LA Chargers at New England –  The West Coast Ravens have yet to clinch a playoff spot, but they are in great position, with a 94% chance of making the post-season as of today. They’re coming off a good win vs. the Broncos, rallying to win 34-27. In that win, they got Gus Edwards going a bit (14 carries, 69 yards, 2 scores). That needs to continue. In this game against the Patriots, the Chargers are a 61.6% favorite to win. They are a 4 point favorite. Obviously NE isn’t good (3-12 overall, 1-5 at home); but they are coming of a competitive 3 point loss at Buffalo. Maybe they won’t roll over completely here.

Denver at Cincinnati –  As mentioned above, Denver lost to the Chargers this past week. That ended the Broncos 4 game winning streak, and dropped them to 9-6 overall. Denver is currently the 7th seed in the AFC, with a 76% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Bengals odds are long win or lose here, but this is an opportunity for Cincinnati to get back to .500. The Bengals have won their last 3 overall, but are just 2-5 at home. Cincinnati is a 57.1% favorite to win here, and are 3.5 point favorites.

Arizona at LA Rams – Needing to win, Arizona lost in OT to Carolina. So, deservedly so, they’ve been eliminated from the post-season. The Rams currently have a 85% chance to make the post-season, and are the 3rd seed in the NFC. Currently the 3rd seed in their conference, and they have a -18 point differential.  Arizona is the only team in the NFC West with a positive point differential at +2. The Rams have won their last 4 games overall, but just 31 points combined the last two weeks after putting 44 on the Bills December 8th. The Rams are given a 55.5% chance of extending their winning streak to 5, and are a 6.5 point favorite.

Sunday December 29th

New York Jets at Buffalo – Aaron Rodgers winning streak ended at 1, as the Jets lost 19-9 to the Rams in LA.  The Bills are a 10 point favorite. With a win, Buffalo will be 13-3 overall, and 8-0 at home. As Peter Schrager pointed out on the Bill Simmons podcast; while Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Houston are playing this Saturday / Christmas Day mixer (and playing 3 games in 11 days); the Bills are staying on normal rest and playing Sunday 1PM games.

Las Vegas at New Orleans – The Raiders ended a 10 game losing streak this past weekend with their 19-14 win over Jacksonville. It’s the NFL, any given Sunday, blah blah… it’s still hard to believe the Ravens lost to the Raiders back in Week 2. The Saints are 5-10 overall, 3-5 at home. Remember when NO started the year 2-0, putting a combined 91 points up on the Panthers and Cowboys? It’s a long year. Vegas is a 1 point favorite here, and given a 57.3% chance to win.

Indianapolis at New York Giants –  Denver is currently the 7th seed in the AFC, with Indianapolis at 8 and on the outside looking in.  The Broncos are 9-6, the Colts are 7-8. Denver also has the head-to-head win two weeks ago, when the Broncos beat up the Colts 31-13. All that today, Indianapolis’s chances of making the post-season are low. (Currently 15%.) That said, if they can win out here vs. the Giants and Jaguars, they can finish over .500.  Jonathan Taylor is coming off a huge 218 yard effort vs. the Titans. In that game, Anthony Richardson had just 11 pass attempts (he did rush for 70 yards and a score). Maybe the Colts have found the formula which works? The 2-13 Giants have lost their last 10 overall, and are 0-8 at home.

Dallas at Philadelphia – Jalen Hurts left Sunday’s game early with a concussion. I would not expect him to be suiting up here. That means Kenny Pickett. Philadelphia rolled the Cowboys 34-6 in Dallas back in early November. The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 overall, climbing back to within a game of .500 at 7-8.  They get some credit there. They’ve also still been outscored on the year by 80 points. Philly is a 9.5 point favorite, and given a 76.3% chance of winning.

Carolina at Tampa Bay – The Panthers beat the Cardinals in OT Sunday. They’ve won 3 of their last 7, and 3 of their 4 losses were competitive. One of those losses was a 3 point game to Tampa Bay at home. The Bucs had won 4 in a row prior to their 26-24 loss Sunday at Dallas. The Bucs are currently 8-7 overall, and the 8th seed in the NFC. They’ve got a 52% chance of making the playoffs. The Bucs are an 8 point favorite vs. Carolina, and given a 80.4% chance of winning.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – I can watch just about any NFL game and be entertained. There are some limits.

Miami at Cleveland – The Dolphins are yet another team that can get back to .500 this week. They are currently the 9th seed in the AFC, with a 8% chance of making the post-season. The Dolphins have 5 of their last 7.  The Browns entered 2024 with decent odds of getting back to the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. Instead they are 3-12. Miami is a 6.5 point favorite. For those wondering, the projected game time temp is 53 degrees.

Green Bay at Minnesota – The game of the week as two of the three NFC North powers collide. Green Bay is 11-4, and has won 5 of 6. Minnesota is 13-2, and has won their last 8.  In the newly released DVOA Rankings, the Packers are 3rd overall with the 3rd rated offense, and 6th rated defense. The Vikings are 6th overall, with the 14th rated offense, and 3rd rated defense. Minnesota is the 1 point favorite, but the Packers are given a 55.1% chance of getting the road win.

Atlanta at Washington – Michael Penix and the Falcons traveling to DC to face Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Daniels coming off the 5 TD outing vs. the Eagles. As the NFC South leader, the Falcons are currently the 4th seed in the NFC Playoffs. Washington is given a 60.2% chance of winning, and is a 4 point favorite. Washington is 8th overall in DVOA, with the 6th rated offense, and 22nd rated defense. Atlanta is 20th overall in DVOA, with the 15th rated offense, and 24th rated defense. Washington’s defense isn’t particularly strong, so will be interesting to see if Penix can get hot. Washington has to start with keying on Bijan Robinson. Conversely, Atlanta can’t rush the passer, and Daniels figures to have another big day.

Monday December 30th

Detroit at San Francisco – Two games left in this torturous season for the Niners. 6-9 overall, with a team still 11th overall in DVOA.  One ‘positive’ aspect for all of the numerous injuries the Lions are dealing with is that the expectations have been pulled back a bit. I think the football world is in a wait and see mode to see what Detroit still looks like at this point. They enter this game 2nd overall in DVOA, with the 4th rated offense, and 5th rated defense. They are a 60.8% favorite to win here. They are positioned to go 8-0 on the road. With David Montgomery injured, there are even more touches available for Jahmyr Gibbs. He had a big day Sunday vs. the Bears with 23 carries, and another 4 catches.