2025 NFL: Previewing Week 1

The 106th season of the National Football League kicks off Thursday night with an NFC East Divisional Match-up as the Dallas Cowboys head to Philadelphia to face the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles.

The season will culminate with Super Bowl 60, February 8th, 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

We preview each of the 16 games on the weekend slate, as all 32 teams will be in-action.

Week 1 Games

All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Thursday September 4th

Dallas at Philadelphia –  The 2025 season begins with the Eagles being 7.5 point favorites, and given a 68.7% chance of beating Dallas.  The Cowboys defense seemed questionable with Micah Parsons. Are they going to contain Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and company? The right side of the Dallas O-Line is supposed to be an issue, as is the Eagles Edge rush. That’s something to watch. Will also be interesting to see if Dax Prescott finds an early rhythm with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.  As opposed to obtaining Pickens, I think Prescott would have been helped more by further O-Line investment, and doing more at RB than Dallas did. You can quibble about the return (two 1st rounders, and 3x Pro Bowler Kenny Clark) the Cowboys got for Micha Parsons, but I think Dallas made the right decision on the trade. Now to be clear, the actual right decision would have been getting an extension done with Parsons earlier in Parsons career. But given the acrimonious situation that developed, I think moving him before the year was the right call. Now, I don’t know if two late first round picks (and Clark) is enough for a true impact player like Parsons; but I know that Dallas wasn’t winning a Super Bowl this year with or without him. The Cowboys had reeled off three successive 12 win season before last year’s 7-10 finish. Could they get back to the playoffs this year? Maybe?  RB doesn’t look particularly good. Miles Sanders was good in ’22,  The last two years there have been shoulder and ankle injuries and non-performance. Javonte Williams might be usable, but he’s not going to scare anyone. With a leaky defense, Prescott probably throws for a ton of yards. Can see Dallas being similar to Cincinnati.

Friday September 5th

Kansas City  vs LA Chargers (Brazil) –  It’s Year 2 for Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers. Year 1 had LA reaching the Wild Card game before losing to the Texans. Their running game wasn’t good enough last year with former Ravens JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards. (Dobbins did average a very healthy 4.6 yards per carry, but only had one game with 20+ carries.) There could be a boost there in ’25 with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris.  Unfortunately for LA, they lost Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater to a season ending torn patellar tendon. Most projections have LA finishing 3rd in the West, behind KC and Denver. Lots of talk from people wanting to see if KC’s offense will be more explosive in ’25.  That should be possible. Xavier Worthy is no longer a rookie. Hollywood Brown is healthy (at-least currently). When Rashee Rice returns from suspension, he’ll help the passing attack. Isiah Pacheco is healthy. With Patrick Mahomes at QB, the offense will remain capable. How good 1st round pick OT Josh Simmons is, will go a long way in determining how good the offense becomes overall. Winning this game at home would certainly help LA’s chances of exceeding expectations. KC is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 56.2% chance of winning.

Sunday September 7th 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – The prohibitive favorites for the NFC South title face off in Week 1.  The Atlanta offense could be a fun watch.  Kurt Cousins was clearly physically compromised last year. This year he’s the backup to 2nd year QB Michael Penix Jr. Penix, with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London, etc… that’s a talented group.  Defensively, Rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce might help; but the unit still looks weak overall.  The Bucs were a solid team last year, that continued to compete after even suffering a number of serious injuries. They’ve received recent good news with WR Chris Godwin (could be back practicing in Week 2), and OT Tristan Wirfs (could return in October). That’s promising. Mike Evans missed 3 games, but still had his 11th consecutive 1,000 yard season. His YPC average dipped though. Something to watch there. Bucky Irving had a very productive rookie season at RB. If Haason Reddick returns to prior 2024 form, this is a roster which could win multiple playoff games. Baker Mayfield had a monster 2024 season. He’s competitive, and plays with a chip on his shoulder. He’s had a very productive two year stint with Tampa Bay, and the most important thing for the Bucs – he’s started all 34 games these last two years. Tampa Bay is a 2.5 point favorite, and given a 54.4% chance of getting the road win.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – The battle of Ohio for these AFC North teams. Joe Burrow is a fantastic QB, truly amongst the elite in the game. Can we stop being wowed by his 2024 yardage? He had a chance to throw for nearly 5,000 yards because the Bengals defense was atrocious. Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown will help the Bengals again put up a ton of points. If the defense hasn’t improved to be at-least average, Burrow’s greatness will again go for naught. Year 7 of Joe Flacco’s post Ravens career begins with him anointed the Week 1 starter for Cleveland. In the last six years, Flacco has played 8,5,2, 5,5, and 8 games. Kenny Pickett was traded to Vegas last week, so both Shadeur Sanders, and Dillon Gabriel made the Browns roster. A good bet is that both of them see time during the year. If Sanders starts the 2nd half of the season, and makes you think he’s well positioned to start in ’26; that will have been a productive year for the Browns. I liked 4th round RB Dylan Sampson at Tennessee. WR Jerry Jeudy comes over from the Broncos. David Njoku is capable at TE. What has the point of the Myles Garrett extension? Both player and team would have been better off with a trade. Cincinnati is a 5.5 point favorite, and given a 64.7% chance of winning at Cleveland.

Miami at Indianapolis – A lot of people like the Colts roster, but there is little to confidence in their QB’s Daniel Jones, and Anthony Richardson.  Jones comes over from the Giants, and has been announced as the starter. Richardson begins his 3rd year in the NFL, on the bench. If Jones can replicate his 2022 season, the Colts can be a playoff team. He just needs to be an effective game manager, that doesn’t turn the ball over, and gives the Colts a chance in the play-action game with RB Jonathan Taylor. That (reaching the playoffs) is a realistic ceiling for Indianapolis. With Miami, the Dolphins could be a team that looks surprisingly good the first 2-3 weeks when everyone is healthy. When Tua Tagovailoa is available, and they’re not playing cold weather games – they’ve got the talent to leap up and bite a team in a given week. But after playing in 17 games in ’23, Tagovailoa was limited to 11 games in ’24. There is always going to be worry that the next hit is it for him. The secondary is questionable at best. They need Bradley Chubb, and Chop Robinson to have big years up-front. Does Head Coach Mike McDaniel last the season? Basically a Pick’em game, with the Colts being 1.5 point home favorites, and given a 50.7% chance of winning.

Las Vegas at New England – Two teams which expect to be improved in 2025. Las Vegas won 4 games last year. Pete Carroll arrives for his first season with the Raiders, and brings former QB Geno Smith. QB play was brutal for LV last year. If Smith is average to good; that’s a significant upgrade. Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty will get plenty of carries. 2nd year TE Brock Bower might already be the best player at his position. Jakobi Meyers is solid at WR. Team that group with a quality Defensive Line, and you’ve got a group that could be competitive week-to-week.  New England is picked to finish 2nd in the AFC East by basically everyone. Tre’Vyon Henderson, and Stefon Diggs should add some juice to the offense. The defense looks solid. All eyes will be on 2nd year QB Drake Maye. Maye looks talented enough to lift up his teammates. This is a game that at the end of the year could have playoff implications. New England is a 2.5 point favorite, and given a 51.8% chance of winning.

Arizona at New Orleans – The Saints are starting Spencer Rattler at QB.  Rattler was a highly regarded HS QB, who had time in College at both Oklahoma and South Carolina. Last year as a Rookie, the ’24 5th round pick had 7 games under center. Every National site has the Saints as having the worst QB room in the league. I’m surprised that Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave were not moved for whatever they could have received. There are a number of Saints pieces defensively I do like. Arizona feels like the NFC version of Miami for me.  Catch them on the right week, and they’ll look entertaining. I don’t think it’s a good sign for them that Kyle Murray managed to play in all 17 games last year, and they still finished 8-9. In the three preceding seasons, Murray averaged 11 games. Marvin Harrison Jr. hauled in 62 receptions as a rookie last year, but that was on 116 targets. I think you can expect his production to increase. One thing to note, Arizona did invest in their defensive line.  Arizona is a 6.5 point favorite, and given a 59% chance to win.

Pittsburgh at New York Jets – The Aaron Rodgers Bowl?  The Justin Fields Bowl?  Rodgers still has a strong arm, and with time he’s capable of making plays in the pocket. DK Metcalf, and Pat Freiermuth are good weapons. The RB’s are just guys. The O-Line is not great. Rodgers looked like he was scared to be hit last year. Was that age? Was that him still be slowed from the Achilles injury? Is he able to move around the pocket and give himself time? Will he still look like he’s afraid of contact? Pittsburgh’s ceiling is a Wild Card team which doesn’t leave Wild Card Weekend.  I think the Steelers would have been better off keeping Fields as their starter last year. The passing game didn’t improve that much with Russell Wilson, and Fields’ ability to run was something they could have leaned on when the weather turned. Fields has a strong arm, and he can move. He also apparently doesn’t process the game quick enough. That’s limiting obviously, but if you limit his reads and have him just take off – I think that can be usable for a team like the Jets. Two years ago the Jets went into the ’23 season believing their defense was uber elite. That didn’t happen, but there are still some pieces there. Their identity needs to be running the ball, and playing strong defense. The Steelers are 2.5 point favorites, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.

New York Giants at Washington – 2024 was a great year for the Commanders. They got rid of the toxic ownership of Daniel Snyder, and they got elite QB play from Rookie Jayden Daniels. Understandably, expectations are high in DC that the Commanders will take another step forward in ’25. I’m not necessarily picking the Commanders to regress, but with every headline I saw this Summer about Daniels, I thought about Texans QB CJ Stroud.  Everyone was in love with Stroud going into Stroud’s second year in ’24. Now everyone is in love with Daniels.  It’s very hard to live up to expectations that high. I loved DC getting Deebo Samuel for Daniels. Washington has enough other pieces that Samuel doesn’t have to be the guy, but he’s got a rare skill set when he’s right. Is the pass rush good enough?  The Giants have pieces I really like. The defensive line is outstanding. Daniel Jones didn’t play well at QB when healthy, and then was hurt. Tommy DeVito wasn’t going to be an answer. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston can certainly be better than anything the Giants received from under center last year. Deeper into the year, when it’s clear the Giants aren’t making the playoffs, we will probably see rookie Jaxson Dart. WR Malik Nabers is super talented. 4th round RB Cam Skattebo became a fan favorite of everyone after his performance in the Peach Bowl vs. Texas. The Giants over / under win loss total is set at 5.5. I’d be tempted to take the over if the O-Line looked better. The Commanders are 6.5 point favorites, and given a 68.5% chance of winning.

Carolina at Jacksonville –  Year 1 was a rough watch for Bryce Young. Year 2 was an improvement. Can he improve further in Year 3? His weapons are better. He might have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball around with a Secondary that has questions at safety, and a pass rush that looks limited. Are the Jaguars ever going to fix their offensive line? This is Year 5 for Trevor Lawrence. After playing all 17 games his first two seasons, and 16 games in Year 3; he was limited to 10 games in Year 4.  If he stays upright all of ’25, that’s one way Jacksonville can improve this year. Even with a questionable O-Line, the former 1st overall pick has to be good enough in Year 5 to elevate those around him. They’ve got good RB’s. Brian Thomas Jr is strong at WR.  The D-Line has talent. Travis Hunter is an X Factor. The Jags apparently plan to use him on both sides. If he’s a shutdown corner, and adds something to the offense; that will be something to watch. The Jags are 3.5 point favorites, and given a 60.8% chance of winning.

Tennessee at Denver – The Titans figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. That said, Cam Ward has some okay weapons in Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and Chig Okonkwo as he begins his professional career. If the O-Line is improved, that group might more competitive than presently anticipated. On the other-hand, expectations for Denver are sky high. It’s Year 3 for Sean Payton with the Broncos. In Year 2, he and rookie QB Bo Nix got Denver back to the playoffs. The defense is strong, the o-line is strong, and Nix is solid enough. Are there enough weapons around Nix? If Rookie RB RJ Harvey comes on early, watch out. When we talked about the Chargers above, we mentioned that Dobbins only had one game with 20 plus carries. We also noted he did average 4.6 yards per carry. He can help. Denver is a 7.5 point favorite, and given a 69.7% chance of winning.

San Francisco at Seattle – Is Christian McCaffrey healthy? Will he be able to suit up and produce all year? If he does, the 49ers will have a strong offense and be relevant – even with their defense seemingly slipping.  Seattle is an interesting team going into ’25. Sam Darnold is at QB after his marvelous ’24 season in Minnesota. Darnold no longer has Justin Jefferson to throw to, but he does have Jaxson Smith-Nigba, Cooper Kupp, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at WR. The left side of the O-Line looks good.  Is right side of the line tolerable? Does RB Kenneth Walker bounce back some?  Can Kupp stay available (9 games, 12 games, 12 games) the last 3 years. He doesn’t have to be the 145 catch Kupp from the ’21 season, but he does have to take some attention off of Smith-Nigba. I don’t know what to expect from Darnold exactly. He was draft into the league in 2018 and it never clicked for him. People raved about the talent, but there is never enough talk about the surrounding talent and system.  Last year he had an opportunity and ran with it. Played at a level where he was getting MVP votes at year end. Now people are fixated on his loss in the Wild Card. My take would be expecting him to perform like a Pro Bowler might be expecting too much, but he has a chance to better for Seattle in ’25 than the Seahawks got from Geno Smith in ’24. This is Year 2 for Mike Macdonald as HC for Seattle. The defense has a chance to be amongst the best in the league. If they can pound the ball with Walker, and get a good play action game going; Seattle can be right in that playoff mix. Their over / under is set at 8.5, and that seems about right. This Week 1 NFC West clash is important to both teams. San Francisco is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 54.2% chance to win.

Detroit at Green Bay – NFC North foes in a Week 1 match-up. The Lions of course won the division with a 15-2 season, before being knocked out of the playoffs by Washington. Green Bay finished 3rd in the North at 11-6, but still made the playoffs, losing to Philadelphia in the Wild Card round.  What changes do we see with the Lions offense this year, under new OC John Morton? Jared Goff’s weapons at RB, WR, and TE are all strong. The tackles are strong. There questions about the interior of the line. Detroit won those 15 regular season games, but lost a lot of bodies along the way. One of them was Aidan Hutchinson who was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level when he got hurt. Goff has had 3 straight years of at-least 4,400 yards. The Lions likely come back to the pack some in ’25, but remain one of the inner-circle contenders. The hype for Green Bay was rising even before the acquisition of Parsons. The Packers offense is loaded. Jordan Love is immensely talented, but ’24 was a regression as he battled injuries, and at-times himself trying to do to much. I’d expect a rebound from Love in ’25. Parsons getting regular pressure up-front should help alleviate some of the concern about the corners ability to hold up in the back. The corners are also helped by having quality surrounding them at safety. Green Bay is a 2.5 point favorite, but the Lions are given a 51.1% chance of securing the Week 1 win.

Houston at LA Rams – Two teams that have more than a puncher’s chance of becoming a true contender.  Houston’s offense is loaded. They also have strong edge rushers, and a capable secondary. But the o-line questions likely hold them back. The Rams have Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams at WR. They’ve got Kyren Williams at RB. Jared Verse was a Pro Bowler as a Rookie at Edge. Matthew Stafford pushed the Eagles in the playoffs. His overall numbers weren’t great last year, but if the Rams get to the playoffs, and he’s healthy; then LA has a chance. The Rams are 2.5 point favorites, and are given a 55.6% chance of winning.

Baltimore at Buffalo – We will have a larger write-up on this game later in the week. The Bills are 1.5 point favorites, and are given a 51.4% chance of winning.

Monday September 8th

Minnesota at Chicago – Another NFC North Week 1 match-up. The Vikings defense front will be one of the league’s best. CB is a question. The biggest question is of course JJ McCarthy at QB. As we discussed above, Darnold ended the year receiving MVP votes. Not exactly fair to expect McCarthy to do the same in ’25 ( he missed all of ’24 to injury, and will be getting his initial starts as a pro this year ). What is fair to ask from McCarthy is that he manages games, and distributes the ball to his play-makers (Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson). He’s got to get rid of the ball, and make quick decisions. He doesn’t necessarily need to be making plays himself, but he can’t be turning the ball over. Having operated under a similar mentality at Michigan should serve him well. For the Bears, it’s all about Caleb Williams. Plenty of talent at WR / TE / and RB.  The Bears invested in their O-Line, and it’s supposed to be among the league’s best lines this year.  QB evaluators said Williams held the ball too long last year. Does he process quicker in Year 2? If he takes a leap, the Bears take a leap. Minnesota is a 1.5 point favorite, but the Bears are given a 52.1% chance of winning.

 

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