2025 NFL: Previewing Week 11

Week 11 in the NFL is kicking off with the hapless Jets traveling to face the AFC East leading Patriots in New England.

New England is certainly one of the stories of the year.  I thought they could be a playoff team, but the 8-2 start has surprised me.

Drake Maye is the current MVP favorite, and Mike Vrabel is the current favorite for NFL Head Coach of the Year.

They’ve won 7 in a row entering tonight, and they are 5-0 on the road.

All credit to them for what they’ve accomplished so far this season; but I don’t think anyone would be afraid of facing them in the playoffs.

Entering tonight, New England is 17th overall in DVOA with the 9th ranked offense, and the 29th ranked defense.

Maye is having a fantastic 2nd season.

Stefon Diggs has 50 receptions, and five other teammates have 20+.

Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

There is some collective performance here, and Maye is clearly spreading the ball around and elevating everyone – but this isn’t a group you’d fear as an opposing Defensive Coordinator.

Not trying to throw cold water on them.

Vrabel and Maye deserve respect, and their good enough to believe the Pats could have a chance in any game vs. anyone.
Also, their road record points to an overall maturity with the roster.

I’m surprised by their regular season so far.
I’m not expecting them to win multiple playoff games.
Maybe I’ll be surprised again.

Week 11 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday Nov. 13th

NY Jets at New England –  The Patriots are given a 71.2% chance of winning, and are a 12.5 point favorite. After starting the year 0-7, the Jets have won their last two. Somehow they got a win last week with Justin Fields completing 6 of 11 attempts for 54 yards.  Fields was a 1st round pick in 2021.  The criticism he regularly gets is that he holds the ball too long, and doesn’t work quickly through his progressions. That’s a critique which can inhibit a guy from ever reaching his ceiling. But despite that limitation, I’ve thought that Fields could be a legitimate bottom 1/3 starting QB. Not good, but usable with his athleticism and strong arm. In 2022 he rushed for 1,143 yards (7.1 yards per attempt). This year he’s averaging 5.3 per carry.  Life for Fields doesn’t get any easier, as WR Garrett Wilson has been placed on IR and will miss at-least the next four games.

Sunday Nov. 16th

Washington vs. Miami – Everyone had DC stepping back this year after reaching the NFC Championship last year.  And that’s happened. And with the time Jayden Daniels has missed, combined with their defensive issues; it’s not surprising to anyone. Just a lost year.  DC will need to regroup, and invest in the blocking in-front of Daniels. Maybe they surprise again next year. Miami’s last four games have been up and down. 25 point loss in Cleveland. 24 point win in Atlanta. 22 point loss at home to the Ravens. 17 point win vs. Buffalo.  Didn’t see that win vs. the Bills coming. This game vs. Washington is in Madrid. Washington is given a 52.9% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point favorite.

Carolina at Atlanta – The Falcons have dropped 4 in a row to fall to 3-6.  Pretty disappointing stretch for a team which does have talent. Most important thing for Atlanta the rest of the way is the play of Michael Penix. If he comes on down the stretch and they believe in him going forward – they can enter the off-season feeling good about where things are going.  Carolina being 5-5 isn’t going to get a ton of headlines, but HC Dave Canales gets credit for having a pretty limited team competitive each week. That said, that was a bad loss last week vs. the Saints at home. Carolina has scored 45 total points in their last four games.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo – After that loss to the Dolphins, the Bills have lost 3 of 5. They’re going to need this game to keep pace with the Patriots. The Bucs and Bills are both 6-3.  Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the road, while Buffalo is 4-1 at home.  Buffalo is given a 61% chance of winning, and is a 5.5 point favorite.  In DVOA, Tampa is 10th overall, with the 15th rated offense, and 7th rated defense.  The Bills are 11th overall with the 6th rated offense, and 22nd rated defense. Baker Mayfield is having another strong season, despite often not having Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving available. Evans seems likely to play this week, and of course Mayfield has had Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka available. Egbuka is averaging 16.9 yards per reception on his 40 catches so far this year.

Houston at Tennessee – The Texans can get back to .500 with a win here, but they’ll have to beat the Titans without CJ Stroud who will miss his second straight game. Houston is 8th overall in DVOA, with the 21st ranked offense, and the 1st ranked defense. If Houston can reach the post-season, that’s a team which could surprise.  Defense should give you a chance vs. anyone. Stroud capable of getting hot.  Houston is a 5.5 point favorite here.

Chicago at Minnesota – The 6-3 Bears travel to Minnesota to face the 4-5 Vikings.  The Bears are 25th overall in DVOA, with the 16th ranked offense, and 28th ranked defense. This seems like a game where Vikings QB JJ McCarrhy and his WR’s could get going. Minnesota is a 2.5 point home favorite, and given a 50.1% chance of winning. Rome Odunze is dealing with an ankle injury. After a career low 9.9 yards per reception last year, DJ Moore is averaging 13.4 this season – back in-line with his 13.5 career average. Moore is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Green Bay at NY Giants – The Packers are 5-3-1 after losing their last two games.  I’m still on Green Bay as one of the 8 or so teams capable of winning a Super Bowl; but 20 total points in these back-to-back losses have thinned the bandwagon. They’ve got good weapons, though they’ve now lost TE Tucker Kraft for the year. Rightly or wrongly, that leads to additional scrutiny on Jordan Love. Love has more than enough talent to win with. Love’s completion percentage is up, his interception percentage is down. He is being sacked more this year. While I think Green Bay is Super Bowl capable, they still have to get to the playoffs first. Right now they’re trailing both Detroit and Chicago in the NFC North. The Packers are a 7.5 point favorite.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – The Bengals were off last week after putting up 42 points on Chicago in a losing effort two weeks ago. In that game, Joe Flacco threw for 470 yards, and 4 TD’s.  This is Flacco’s second game vs. the Steelers in a Bengals uniform. In his first game with Cincinnati, Flacco and the Bengals beat the Steelers 33-31 Oct.17th.  Pittsburgh enters the game having lost 3 of 4, to fall to 5-4 overall. The Steelers as a whole – and Aaron Rodgers in particular – had a rough game vs. the Chargers this past weekend.  Is Rodgers going to fall apart as the weeks get colder?  Pittsburgh is 13th overall in DVOA, 17th in offense, 15th in defense. Pittsburgh is a 5.5 point favorite, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.

LA Chargers at Jacksonville – The 7-3 Chargers at the 5-4 Jags. LA is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 56.7% chance of winning. LA is 14th overall in DVOA, with the 14th ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense. A balanced team with a quality Head Coach and a quality QB. Again, that’s a team which could surprise in January. They enter this game having won their last 3.  The Jags have lost 3 of 4. If they could win here, they could start to get hot with trips to Arizona and Tennessee next up on their schedule.

Seattle at LA Rams – Per DVOA, this is a match-up of the two best teams in the league.  The Seahawks are 1st overall with the 4th ranked offense, and 3rd ranked defense.  The Rams are 2nd overall with the 2nd ranked offense, and 6th ranked defense.  Mike MacDonald in Year 2 at the helm of the Seahawks, 39 year old Sean McVay in Year 9 with the Rams.  Matthew Stafford is currently 2nd in the MVP race odds.  Sam Darnold had the breakout season last year with Minnesota, and he’s having another quality year this season with the Rams. Both of these NFC West teams are 7-2 with Seattle 4-0 on the road, and the Rams 3-1 at home. Both teams have won 4 in a row. First of two games between these teams. The Rams are given a 59.9% chance of winning, and are a 3.5 point favorite.

San Francisco at Arizona – The 49ers have lost 3 of 5, but are expected to get Brock Purdy back this week. The offense has remained productive (7th overall in DVOA), but the defense is just 26th. Might be too many injuries for SF to get past. SF is given a 57.5% chance of winning, and is a 2.5 point road favorite. Not a lot to say about Arizona. They’ll be without Marvin Harrison Jr (appendicitis). Kyler Murray is on IR, and if he does return this year – he’s not expected to start again in a Cardinals uniform.

Baltimore at Cleveland – The Ravens will attempt to run their winning streak to 4, and get to .500. It’s a division game, and the Ravens are on the road; but no excuses here, it’s a game they have to win. After missing practice yesterday, Lamar Jackson was back on the field today.

Kansas City at Denver – An AFC West battle. Denver is leading the division at 8-2.  KC is 5-4.  Obviously it’s a must-win game for KC if they are going to rally to win the West. If the Chiefs lose here, not only is the division race likely over, but KC’s chances of making the playoffs would take a hit. The Match-Up predictor is giving KC a 60% chance of winning, which feels high. Vegas also likes the Chiefs, placing them as a 3.5 point favorite. KC is 5th overall in DVOA with the 3rd ranked offense, and 14th ranked defense. The Broncos are 9th overall, with the 18th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Denver is 5-0 at home, while the Chiefs are 1-3 on the road. Bo Nix is taking a fair amount of criticism right now, but he’s not exactly surrounded by a lot of offensive talent. JK Dobbins is having a good year at RB, but he’s questionable with a foot injury. If he’s not able to go, RJ Harvey is plenty capable. The Broncos have won 7 in a row.

Detroit at Philadelphia – The NFC North leading Lions at the NFC East leading (and defending Super Bowl Champion) Eagles. Philly has won their last 3 games, and are a 2.5 point favorite here. They are given a 50.8% chance of winning. Detroit is 4th overall in DVOA with the 5th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense. The Eagles are 7th overall with the 8th ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. The Lions have alternated wins and losses over the last month.

Monday Nov. 17th

Dallas at Las Vegas – At 3-5-1, the Cowboys don’t have a great path to the post-season. A loss here would only lower those limited odds. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 58.6% chance of winning.