2025 NFL: Previewing Week 6

There are multiple weekends each Fall where the NFL is just absolute chaos. Week 5 was the latest example. Every game is about health, and match-ups. And the difference between the best and worst teams for a given week isn’t insurmountable. It’s still surprising when there are a number of significant upsets.

Week 5 Quick Hits: 

49ers 26 Rams 23 – The weekend started with San Francisco getting an OT win in LA against their NFC West rival. Without Bruck Purdy, George Kittle, or Nick Bosa; the Niners found a way to improve to get the road win. With the W, SF is now 4-1 overall, and 3-0 on the road. Mac Jones had 342 yards passing, along with 2 TD’s.  His efforts this year in replacing Purdy have been huge. Christian McCaffrey had another poor day rushing the ball (2.6 yards per carry on 22 attempts), and another productive day as a receiver out of the backfield (82 yards, 1 td). Kendrick Bourne had a big game, with 142 yards on 10 receptions. Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams both lost fumbles, Williams coming on the goal line late in the 4th Quarter.  Stafford had 389 yards with 3 TD’s. There were four different Rams who had at-least 66 yards receiving. The Rams were playing a banged up team at home. This was a game they should have won. Instead the Niners get that additional road W, putting them in a strong position as they move towards getting healthier.

Vikings 21 Browns 17 – JJ McCarthy missed another game, and Carson Wentz got another W, as the Vikings won in London. In addition to McCarthy, the Vikings were missing a number of offensive lineman in-front of Wentz. Justin Jefferson averaged 17.6 yards per catch on his 7 grabs. Rookie Dillion Gabriel had 2 TD’s in his starting debut for Cleveland. Minnesota is on a bye this week. NFL Network reported that their plan is for McCarthy to be reinserted as the starter for Week 7. Will be curious to see if he’s able to keep the job.  Those reviewing the game films from Wentz’s starts, have talked about how Minnesota is more dangerous with him being able to use the entire field. So McCarthy not only has to get back from his injury, he needs to show he is comfortable running the entire playbook.

Colts 40 Raiders 6 – Indianapolis is 4-1, and 3-0 at home. They won this game by 34, with Jonathan Taylor being held to 66 yards on 17 attempts ( he did have 3 td’s ). Four sacks and two picks for the Colts defense. Daniel Jones is on-pace to throw for 4,400 yards.

Saints 26 Giants 14 – New Orleans gets win #1.  The Giants weren’t able to follow-up their win over the Chargers. Jaxson Dart threw 2 picks, and also lost a fumble. His teammates lost two other fumbles. The Giants didn’t record a sack. The Saints Spencer Rattler connected with Rashid Shaheed for 4 catches, 114 yards, and a score.

Cowboys 37 Jets 22 – Dallas improved to 2-2-1, as New York fell to 0-5. Dax Prescott had 4 TD’s on just 29 attempts, connecting with George Pickens once, Jake Ferguson twice, and Javonte Williams once. Williams had 135 yards rushing, including one 66 yard scamper.  Dallas was playing without four starting O-Lineman, and WR CeeDee Lamb. Prescott is playing at a high level.  They’ve got an excellent kicker. Their getting production at RB. The WR’s and TE’s when healthy are excellent.  There is enough going for them offensively that you can envision them as a playoff team.

Broncos 21 Eagles 17 – Philadelphia was due for a loss. The outcome is more meaningful to Denver than the Eagles.  The Broncos showed themselves they could go into the home of the World Champs and win. And do that overcoming a 14 point deficit. When you think about the progression of teams into contenders, one stop on the journey is believing you compete with the best. The next step is getting actual results. Strong 4th Quarter for Bo Nix, as he was 9 of 10 for 126 yards and a score. JK Dobbins had another productive game.

Panthers 27 Dolphins 24 – Carolina came back from 17 points down to get their 2nd win. RB Rico Dowdle put up a 206 yard day, including a long of 53. The Dolphins fell to 1-4, 0-3 on the road. Miami should be looking to sell off parts and acquire picks and cap room. Maybe Mike McDaniel is kept for the remainder of this season to absorb the impending losses that are sure to come?

Texans 44 Ravens 10 – My only real takeaway from this game is that Houston did what they should have done against an injury-riddled, inferior team. They didn’t let the Ravens hang around and believe they could win. They kept their foot on the Ravens throat.  If they can sustain that mental approach, they’ve got time to close the gap with Indianapolis in the AFC South.

Titans 22 Cardinals 21 – Win number 1 for the Titans and Cam Ward. Tennessee outscored Arizona 16-0 in the 4th. The winning points coming on a field goal as time expired to cap an 11 play, 71 yard drive. It’s a third straight loss for Arizona, and this one was particularly disappointing as they controlled the action over the first three quarters.

Buccaneers 38 Seahawks 35 – Tampa Bay improved to 4-1 overall, and 3-0 on the road. Seattle fell to 3-2 overall, 1-2 at home. Baker Mayfield was near perfect, going 29 of 33 for 379 yards and 2 TD’s. He produced that in the air, with his teammates giving him nothing on the ground (Bucs had 24 carries for 56 yards). 1st round pick Emeka Egbuka blew up with 7 catches, for 163 yards (a long of 57), and a score. Seattle lost despite their offense having a good day.  Sam Darnold had 341 yards and 4 scores. Seattle averaged 6.1 yards per carry on 20 attempts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ( a Ohio State WR like Egubka ) had 132 yards and a TD. More of a quality win for Tampa Bay than a bad loss for Seattle.

Lions 37 Bengals 24 – Detroit wins this battle of the cats. Cincinnati decided after this game they weren’t getting enough from Jake Browning after this game, and traded for Joe Flacco who has been inserted as the starter. Was more of a workmanlike performance for Detroit than straight domination, but they look like a good bet for 30+ points every time out. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are a great combo at RB.  Amon-Ra St.Brown, and Sam LaPorta and company are a handful at WR and TE. Aidan Hutchinson had sack #5. Browning had 3 TD’s in this game, but was also picked 3 times.  That will get you benched. Flacco has to be excited having Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins to throw to.

Commanders 27 Chargers 10 – DC improved to 3-2, and LA fell to 3-2. LA led 10-0 at the end of the 1st Quarter, and Washington outscored them 27-0 the rest of the way. Jayden Daniels had his first start in a few weeks, and was working his way back into form. With him not clicking at 100%, DC has to feel good about getting that road win. 2025 7th round pick Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 111 yards rushing on just 14 carries. LA’s Justin Herbert was sacked 4 times, and has now been sacked 16 times on the year. He completed 22 passes, but only for 166 yards. He did lead LA in rushing, with 60 yards (including a long of 41).

Patriots 23 Bills 20 – The world didn’t collapse for Buffalo because they didn’t win this game; but it was a significant step for New England. The AFC East has been dominated by Buffalo in recent years.  NE winning a road game vs. their rival should do a lot for their confidence. Stefon Diggs was ready to play against his former team, putting up 10 catches for 146 yards. The Patriots did an excellent job containing James Cook (15 carries, 49 yards). The Bills remain the division favorite, but NE took a significant step towards getting back to the playoffs with the win.

Jaguars 31 Chiefs 28 – Jacksonville had 24 points in the second half, and improved to 4-1 overall, 3-0 at home. KC had 476 yards to Jacksonville’s 319, and also had just one turnover to the Jags 2; and still lost. KC fell to 2-3, and there has to be some concern amongst Chiefs fans if this is the year they finally don’t win the AFC West. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco both had excellent yards per carry, but both only had 7 carries each. For the Jags, Travis Hunter had 3 catches for the second straight week, and also defended a pass. The Jags are in excellent post-season position.

Week 6 Quick Hits: 

All percentages via ESPN’s Match-up Predictor. 

Thursday October 9th

Philadelphia at NY Giants – The Eagles are 7.5 point road favorites, and given a 74.4% chance of winning. Saquon Barkley had 6 carries in the loss to Denver.  Don’t expect that to happen again.

Sunday October 12th

Denver vs NY Jets (London) – Denver is a 6.5 point favorite, and given a 70.8% chance of winning. Denver’s Nik Bonitto has 7 sacks.

Arizona at Indianapolis – The Colts are 7.5 point home favorites, and given a 65.3% chance of improving to 4-0 at home. Indianapolis is 3rd overall in DVOA, 2nd in offense, and 5th in defense. Arizona is 25th in offense, and 8th in defense, 19th overall.  Kyler Murray didn’t practice today for Arizona.

LA Chargers at Miami – Not a game LA can lose. LA is a 3.5 road favorite, and given a 60.2% chance of winning. Miami is 32nd overall in defense via DVOA.

New England at New Orleans – Sometimes you see young teams stumble the week after an emotional win. Will that happen to NE here?  They are 3.5 road favorites, and given a 59.8% chance of winning.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – The Steelers are coming off a bye, and have the Browns at home. They should improve to 4-1. They’re a 5.5 home favorite, and given a 65% chance of winning.

Dallas at Carolina – Dallas had tied, and won the last two weeks. Carolina has won two of their last three, and is 2-0 at home. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 61.3% chance of winning. What does Carolina RB Rico Dowdle do for an encore after his 200 yard game? Looks like Cee Dee Lamb might play for Dallas. Via DVOA, Dallas is 5th overall in offense, and 31st overall in defense.

Seattle at Jacksonville – Despite the loss to Tampa Bay; Seattle is 2nd overall in DVOA. They’ve got the 3rd ranked offense, and 7th ranked defense. They’re 1.5 point road favorites here, with Jacksonville given a 50.2% chance of defending their home field.

LA Rams at Baltimore – The Rams are 7.5 road favorites, and given a 58.7% chance of winning. The Rams are 4th overall in DVOA, with the #1 ranked offense, and the 11th ranked defense. Lamar Jackson missed his 5th straight practice, and I don’t think there is an expectation he plays. There does seem to be some hope that Marlon Humphrey, Ronnie Stanely, and Patrick Ricard suit-up. The only way the Ravens compete here is if they can run. If the Ravens lose here, and they are 1-5 going into their bye; they’ll be written off by basically everyone. Myself, I don’t think Pittsburgh is particularly great, and think the Ravens could still end up catching them in the AFC North. But it will become that much harder to believe a complete 180 on this season is possible, if they are as uncompetitive this week as they were last week vs. Houston. If they could find a way to beat a quality team, that would be nice boost going into the rest week.

Tennessee at Las Vegas – The 1-4 Titans at the 1-4 Raiders. Vegas is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 64.6% chance of winning. By DVOA, Vegas is 29th overall and Tennessee is 30th.

Cincinnati at Green Bay – Flacco has already beat Green Bay once this year. Now gets to try again in a Bengals uniform. Green Bay is 7th overall in DVOA with the 11th ranked offense, and 3rd ranked defense. The Packers had a week off, after their tie with Dallas, and the loss at Cleveland the week prior. Green Bay is a massive 14.5 point favorite here, and given a 80.6% chance of winning.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay – Both NFC teams are 4-1. The Niners are 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 58.3% chance of winning. DVOA doesn’t love either team, with SF currently showing as 16th overall, and Tampa Bay coming in at 18th.

Detroit at Kansas City –  KC can’t be super excited about seeing Detroit this week.  The Chiefs are 2-3, and clearly still trying to put things together. Detroit is going to get their points. Can KC stay within striking range, or do the Lions pull away?  KC is a 1.5 point home favorite, and given a 54.8% chance of winning. I’d think Detroit doesn’t believe they’re the underdog here. By DVOA, Detroit is 1st overall, with the 4th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. KC is 6th overall, which indicates they’re a bit better overall than they’ve looked to-date.

Monday October 13th

Buffalo at Atlanta – The 4-1 Bills trip to Atlanta.  The Falcons had a bye this past week, and had a strong offensive performance the week prior vs. Washington. Can they follow-up of that offensive performance vs. the Bills? The Bills are 4.5 point favorites, and given a 61% chance of winning. Buffalo is 9th overall in DVOA with the 6th ranked offense, but just the 22nd ranked defense. Atlanta is 13th overall in DVOA, with the number 1 ranked defense.

Chicago at Washington – Caleb Williams comes home to face Jayden Daniels. The Bears won their last two games prior to being off this past week. Washington is a 4.5 point favorite here, and given a 65.3% chance of winning. Washington is 5th overall in DVOA, with the 8th ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense.  Pretty strong showing there, especially offensively given that Daniels has missed some time. The Bears are 23rd overall in DVOA, with both their offense and defense ranking 23rd overall.

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