2026-27 College Basketball Preview

When ESPN published its preseason Top 25 this month, it ranked every team twice. Once with the fifth-year players currently suing the NCAA for eligibility. Once without them.

Texas Tech is No. 9 in the first version and unranked in the second. Gonzaga is 14th or 22nd. St. John’s is 10th or 20th. In August, LSU had four confirmed players on its roster.

That is the best shorthand for the season ahead. The sport’s rankings now depend on its court dockets. The NCAA’s new five-for-five eligibility rule passed in June and did not cover last year’s seniors, so they sued. A judge in Indiana granted nearly 90 of them a preliminary injunction. Kansas got two starters back that way, at least for now. Florida got a guard from its 2025 title team. Arizona’s case as a title favorite rests on one ruling for one power forward.

Two other facts frame everything below.

The field is 76. The men’s and women’s committees voted to expand the NCAA Tournament from 68 teams, starting this season. ESPN’s first bracket projects 12 SEC teams, 11 from the Big 12 and 11 from the Big Ten. The bubble is now a place where a 9-9 league record lives comfortably.

The champion lost its coach. Michigan went 37-3 and won the title. Then Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks. The last coach to win a championship and leave immediately was Larry Brown at Kansas in 1988, and the Jayhawks missed the next tournament. Michigan also lost three lottery picks, then lost five-star freshman Brandon McCoy to a torn ACL in August.

So the top is unsettled in a way it rarely is. Both major models have Duke first. Torvik puts Arizona second and Florida third; KenPom has Florida second and Houston third. CBS and ESPN both have Florida first. Nobody has the defending champion in the top nine.

The season tips Nov. 1, when Villanova plays Notre Dame in Rome. Here’s ours.

Top 20 Power Rankings Entering 2026-27

Power ranking is a neutral-floor question. Final Four percentage is a different one: it folds in eligibility risk, injury timelines and how fragile a roster is. That is why Texas Tech can sit 16th here with a ceiling well above it.

Every model number in this piece comes from Bart Torvik’s preseason T-Rank projections unless another source is named.

#	Team	Final Four %	The case
1	Florida	30%	Six of the top seven scorers return from a 27-8 team that won the SEC by three games. Torvik has 78.8% of the minutes back, the most of any contender.
2	Duke	30%	Torvik’s No. 1 team and No. 1 defense. Seventy wins in two seasons, 42 of the last 44 against ACC opponents, and arguably the deepest roster of Jon Scheyer’s tenure.
3	Illinois	22%	Torvik’s No. 1 offense. Five of the top eight scorers return from a Final Four team, and the Big Ten media gave the Illini 18 of 28 first-place votes.
4	Arizona	22%	Torvik’s No. 2 team after a 36-3 Final Four season. Opponents shot 47% at the rim with Motiejus Krivas on the floor. RJ Godfrey’s eligibility is the swing.
5	UConn	20%	National runner-up at 34-6 with Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins back. Torvik has the defense fourth and the offense 39th.
6	Michigan State	18%	Jeremy Fears Jr. is the Big Ten’s preseason Player of the Year. Five of the top eight scorers return and Torvik has 60.4% of the minutes back.
7	Virginia	14%	Torvik’s No. 4 team and No. 2 offense after a 30-6 season. Thijs De Ridder returns and the whole starting five can shoot.
8	Houston	14%	Seven straight Sweet 16s. The top four scorers are gone, but Joseph Tugler and Kelvin Sampson are not, and Torvik has the Cougars fifth and KenPom has them third, with the No. 1 defense.
9	Texas	13%	One of the nation’s best portal classes plus reclassified five-star Marcus Spears Jr. Also 21-15 last year, and Torvik has the Longhorns 16th.
10	Louisville	13%	A roster reported near $20 million, built around Flory Bidunga. Torvik has it seventh with 11.5% of last year’s minutes returning. Seth Trimble’s eligibility is pending.
11	Tennessee	11%	Rick Barnes lost his top six scorers and rebuilt around offense. Juke Harris averaged 21.4 points at Wake Forest.
12	Michigan	10%	The defending champion returns Final Four Most Outstanding Player Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney. It lost its coach, three lottery picks and Brandon McCoy.
13	Kansas	10%	Tyran Stokes is the No. 1 recruit and the favorite to go first in the 2027 draft. Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. are back under a temporary court order, and ESPN still lists both as in limbo.
14	Arkansas	9%	The nation’s No. 1 recruiting class, led by Jordan Smith Jr. Only one of last year’s top four scorers returns.
15	St. John’s	8%	A Final Four hopeful if Quinn Ellis, Babacar Sane and Keyshawn Hall are all eligible. Donnie Freeman is out for the year.
16	Texas Tech	8%	JT Toppin averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds before tearing his ACL in February. Three projected starters are waiting on the courts.
17	Miami	7%	Jai Lucas won 26 games in year one. Leading scorer Malik Reneau (18.9 points) is waiting on a fifth year.
18	Iowa State	7%	KenPom has them sixth with the No. 2 defense. Torvik has the defense fifth and the offense 54th. Milan Momcilovic left for Kentucky, and point guard Tamin Lipsey is still waiting on a fifth year.
19	Gonzaga	7%	Braden Huff and Massamba Diop form one of the best frontcourts in the country. Three projected perimeter additions are waiting on rulings.
20	Alabama	6%	Nate Oats has not finished lower than fourth in adjusted offense since 2023. Aden Holloway is due back Nov. 9, though ESPN’s roster tracker still lists him in limbo.

These sum to roughly 2.8 of the four spots. The rest belongs to the field: Nebraska, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, UCLA, USC, Purdue, Kentucky, BYU, Missouri and Indiana.

Who’s Waiting On A Judge

Thirteen of our top 20 have at least one player waiting on an eligibility ruling, per ESPN’s Oct. 11 roster tracker. Seven do not: Duke, Illinois, UConn, Michigan State, Virginia, Texas and Arkansas. Our rankings assume the players below are available. Where a ruling goes the other way, so does the team.

#	Team	Waiting on a ruling	What’s at stake
1	Florida	Denzel Aberdeen (temporary injunction granted)	A projected starter. Urban Klavzar starts if he can’t play.
4	Arizona	RJ Godfrey	The starting power forward, and much of the title case
8	Houston	Chendall Weaver	A reserve
10	Louisville	Seth Trimble, LJ Wells	Trimble is a projected starter
11	Tennessee	Jalen Washington	Frontcourt depth
12	Michigan	Roddy Gayle Jr., Kenny Noland	Gayle is a projected starter
13	Kansas	Tre White, Melvin Council Jr.	Two starters, playing for now under a temporary injunction
15	St. John’s	Keyshawn Hall, Quinn Ellis, Babacar Sane, Reed Bailey	ESPN has St. John’s 10th with all four, 20th without
16	Texas Tech	Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams, Jamichael Stillwell	ESPN has them ninth with all three, unranked without
17	Miami	Malik Reneau	The leading scorer (18.9 points)
18	Iowa State	Tamin Lipsey	The starting point guard
19	Gonzaga	Xaivian Lee, Chauncey Wiggins, Javon Bennett	ESPN has the Zags 14th with them, 22nd without
20	Alabama	Aden Holloway	Due back Nov. 9 after his remaining drug charge was dismissed, but still listed in limbo

Also waiting: Missouri (Mark Mitchell), BYU (Jaxon Kohler), Clemson (Dillon Hunter), Oklahoma State (Parsa Fallah, Kashie Natt), Oklahoma (B.J. Edwards, Duke Brennan), Providence (Dink Pate and two others), Creighton (Brody Robinson, Fred King), Xavier (Filip Borovicanin), Georgetown (Vince Iwuchukwu), Minnesota (Cade Tyson), Penn State (Josh Reed), Indiana (Sam Alexis) and LSU, which has six players in limbo and nobody returning from last season.

Consensus check (top ten)

Team	BSL	CBS	ESPN	Torvik	KenPom	FanDuel title odds
Florida	1	1	1	3	2	+550
Duke	2	2	2	1	1	+600
Illinois	3	3	3	6	4	+1300
Arizona	4	6	4	2	5	+2000
UConn	5	4	5	11	11	+1200
Michigan State	6	7	6	9	7	+2000
Virginia	7	9	13	4	15	+2500
Houston	8	14	18	5	3	+3000
Texas	9	5	7	16	10	+2200
Louisville	10	8	15	7	17	+2200

Our biggest gaps from the human polls: Houston ten spots higher than ESPN, Virginia six spots higher than ESPN, and Texas four spots lower than CBS.

The market mostly agrees at the top. FanDuel’s six shortest prices belong to our top six, with UConn third instead of fifth. The splits come after that. FanDuel has Texas Tech at +2200, tied for seventh, where we have the Red Raiders 16th. It has Houston at +3000, tied for 11th, where we have the Cougars eighth. And it prices Kentucky (+3500) ahead of the defending champion, with LSU level with Michigan at +4000.

The second model. KenPom’s first ratings, released Oct. 12th, agree with Torvik at the top: Duke, Florida, Illinois and Arizona are top five in both. KenPom backs us hardest on Houston, third with the No. 1 defense in the country. It does not back us on Virginia (15th) or Louisville (17th). Both models have UConn 11th, which makes us, CBS and ESPN the high voices there. And KenPom has Iowa State sixth with the No. 2 defense, 12 spots above where we have the Cyclones.

Five Teams We Like Better Than The Projections

1. Virginia. ESPN has the Cavaliers 13th. Torvik has them fourth, with the No. 2 offense in the country. Ryan Odom won 30 games in year one and brought back Thijs De Ridder, CBS’s preseason ACC Player of the Year, plus Sam Lewis, Chance Mallory and Johann Grunloh. FanDuel prices them 10th at +2500. The portal class drew no headlines because all four transfers came from mid-majors. That’s a team being ranked on brand, when the roster says top ten. KenPom is less convinced, at 15th, so this case rests on Torvik. One more thing in its favor: no Virginia player is waiting on an eligibility ruling.

2. Nebraska. Unranked by CBS, in ESPN’s “next five,” and 13th in Torvik with a projected 23-9 record. The Huskers were picked fifth in the Big Ten and return Pryce Sandfort, a preseason all-conference pick who averaged 18.1 points and shot 41.6% from three. The models see a top-15 team. The polls haven’t caught up, and KenPom agrees with the model at 16th. The risk is the defense: Nebraska lost four of its best defenders, and CBS expects a real step back from a unit Torvik still ranks 11th.

3. Indiana. The Hoosiers went 18-14 and missed the tournament, so the Big Ten media picked them ninth. Darian DeVries then rebuilt the frontcourt with 6-10 Aiden Sherrell (Alabama) and 7-2 Samet Yigitoglu (SMU), and added Notre Dame’s Markus Burton to run the offense. Torvik has only 6.7% of last year’s minutes returning and still ranks Indiana 28th. That is a statement about the incoming talent. KenPom is cooler, at 47th, so this one is more our call than the models’.

4. Auburn. A 1-7 stretch cost the Tigers a bid last year, and they won the NIT instead. Steven Pearl’s answer was age. All five transfers are entering their fourth college season, and the two international additions will be 24 and 22. Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton both return. ESPN’s bracket has Auburn as a 9 seed, and we think that’s the floor. KenPom has the Tigers 25th.

5. Oklahoma State. ESPN’s last team in the field. Steve Lutz kept point guard Kanye Clary, signed two top-35 freshmen including McDonald’s All-American Latrell Allmond, and added shooting and size in the portal. The Big 12 wants ten tournament teams for the first time. The Cowboys are the tenth. Two rotation pieces, Parsa Fallah and Kashie Natt, are waiting on eligibility rulings.

Also considered: Iowa (Ben McCollum returns more than half his scoring and adds a 7-3 center), Villanova (ranked 347th in block rate last year and now has 7-4 Luigi Suigo), West Virginia, and USC.

Five Teams We Like Less Than The Projections

1. Texas. CBS has the Longhorns fifth and ESPN has them seventh. Torvik has them 16th. Texas went 21-15 and 9-9 in the SEC, lost five of its last six before Selection Sunday, squeaked into the First Four as an 11 seed and got hot for two weeks. One of the top two scorers returns. The talent is real, but a top-five ranking asks five transfers and two freshmen to fit together by January in the deepest league in the country. DraftKings prices Texas fourth in the SEC, behind Alabama and Tennessee, and KenPom has the Longhorns 10th.

2. Texas Tech. ESPN’s No. 9 team is also ESPN’s unranked team, depending on three court rulings. On top of that, JT Toppin is coming off a February ACL tear and is not expected to start the season. That is two separate things that both have to break right. We have the Red Raiders 16th and think that’s generous if either one doesn’t. FanDuel has them at +2200, tied for the seventh-shortest price on the board. KenPom is also higher than we are, at 12th, so this fade is about availability more than talent.

3. Missouri. ESPN has the Tigers 16th and Torvik has them 41st with a projected 8-10 league record. The gap is Mark Mitchell, the All-SEC forward who needs a fifth year. Without him ESPN drops them to 19th, and the offense leans on a freshman point guard in a league with 12 projected tournament teams. DraftKings has Missouri 13th of 16 in the SEC title market at +5600, and KenPom has the Tigers 48th.

4. North Carolina. Michael Malone has an NBA title and no college head coaching experience. His first roster is thin up front, and 7-footer Sayon Keita was still not on campus over the summer. CBS’s panel picked the Heels fifth in the ACC. Torvik has them 48th nationally, behind Virginia Tech, Clemson and NC State. DraftKings has them eighth in the ACC at +4700, and KenPom has them 37th.

5. Purdue. Picked sixth in the Big Ten after three straight years as the preseason favorite, and that may still be high. CBS’s panel has the Boilermakers eighth. KenPom is kinder, at 24th nationally and fifth in the league. Purdue returns 38.6% of its scoring. Its most notable newcomer, Caden Pierce, did not play basketball last season. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are all gone.

Fades the market has already made, so we won’t take credit: Michigan (22nd at ESPN), Kentucky (25th at ESPN, 29-26 against high-major teams under Mark Pope), UCF.

Conference Deep Dives

The SEC

Overview. Sixteen teams, and ESPN’s first bracket puts 12 of them in the field. CBS argues 11 of the 16 rosters are Top 25 caliber. The reason is money. Even the league’s poorest programs have close to $8 million for a roster, and the richest are past $20 million.

CBS’s panel was unanimous: Florida first, Texas second. The league sent a record 14 teams to the 2025 tournament and 10 last year, when it had a quarter of the Sweet 16 and none of the Final Four. Seven of last season’s 15 All-SEC players return, and LSU’s Will Wade is the only new head coach.

It shows in the portal ledger. The SEC kept 10 of its top 30 scorers from last season and took 11 top-30 scorers from the other four major conferences. No league has more proven production.

It also has a clear No. 1. Florida won the league by three games and brought nearly everyone back.

The market. DraftKings makes Florida +108 to win the regular-season title, about a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. After that it splits from us: Alabama is second at +620 and Tennessee third at +920, with Texas fourth at +1100. We have Texas second, and we are already lower on the Longhorns than CBS or ESPN.

1. Florida — SEC title odds: 38%

• Strength: The frontcourt. Thomas Haugh (17.1 points), Alex Condon (14.9) and Rueben Chinyelu (11.2) all started for the 2025 champions. Todd Golden has produced back-to-back top-10 defenses.
• Weakness: Perimeter shooting. Florida shot 31.2% from three last season, 321st nationally, and Haugh shot 32.6%.
• The question: This same core lost to Iowa in the second round as a No. 1 seed. Was that a bad night or a tell?
• Watch: Denzel Aberdeen’s injunction. If it holds, the 2025 title team’s first guard off the bench starts next to Boogie Fland.
• Circle: vs. Duke, Dec. 1, in Gainesville. The opener is Miami in Tampa on Nov. 2.

2. Texas — 11%

• Strength: Size, free throws and the No. 1 incoming class in the country by 247Sports’ combined ranking. Matas Vokietaitis drew 8.3 fouls per 40 minutes, and new point guard Isaiah Johnson was in the 94th percentile in free throw rate at Colorado.
• Weakness: Shooting and continuity. David Punch made 11 threes all of last season, and Mikey Lewis will miss non-conference time with a foot injury.
• The question: Sean Miller signed Marcus Spears Jr., who was the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class before reclassifying. Is he ready to matter in March a year early?
• Circle: at Louisville, Dec. 1. Then Florida comes to Austin on Jan. 2.

3. Tennessee — 10%

• Strength: Scoring, for once. Juke Harris (21.4 points at Wake Forest), Jalen Haralson (16.2 at Notre Dame) and Terrence Hill Jr. (15.0 at VCU) can all create.
• Weakness: Everything is new. The top six scorers left, and Torvik has 14% of last year’s minutes returning. Vanderbilt transfer Jalen Washington is still awaiting eligibility.
• The question: Rick Barnes has had a top-five defense five times in six seasons and never an offense better than 17th. Can he flip the formula without losing the defense?
• Circle: vs. Michigan State, Nov. 17, in Knoxville. Maryland in Las Vegas is a week later.

4. Arkansas — 8%

• Strength: Talent. John Calipari has the No. 1 recruiting class, led by Jordan Smith Jr., a projected top-five pick.
• Weakness: Age. Billy Richmond III is the only one of last year’s top four scorers back, on a team replacing unanimous SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr.
• The question: The rest of the sport got older. Can Calipari’s freshman model still reach a Final Four, something he hasn’t done in more than a decade?
• Circle: vs. Virginia, Nov. 8, in Washington. Michigan State on Thanksgiving in Detroit and Arizona on Dec. 19 in Phoenix follow.

5. Alabama — 8%

• Strength: Nate Oats. Alabama has been a top-three halfcourt offense in the SEC for six straight seasons. Aden Holloway (16.8 points, 44% from three) and Amari Allen are a first-round-caliber backcourt.
• Weakness: Labaron Philon is gone, and with him the low turnover rate.
• The question: Holloway is due back Nov. 9 after missing two games, but ESPN’s Oct. 11 roster tracker still lists him in limbo. Is the off-court drama finished?
• Circle: vs. Houston, Dec. 8, at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic.

6. Vanderbilt — 5%

• Strength: Tyler Tanner, who averaged 19.5 points, made first-team All-SEC and pulled out of the draft. Vanderbilt started 16-0 last season.
• Weakness: Five new rotation players around him.
• The question: Vanderbilt has not reached the second weekend since 2007. Is this the roster?
• Circle: at Ohio State, Nov. 24.

On Kentucky outside the top six. Mark Pope is 29-26 against high-major opponents and enters year three with his job in question. He landed the best shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic, who made 136 threes at a 48.7% clip at Iowa State, and kept center Malachi Moreno. CBS’s panel has Kentucky sixth. Torvik projects 9-9 in the league. That would not be enough.

The other 20% belongs to Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas A&M.

The Big Ten

Overview. The defending national champion plays here and was picked third. Illinois took 18 of 28 first-place votes in the media poll, Michigan State took nine and Michigan took one. Last year only two teams received a first-place vote, and they met in the conference title game.

All five CBS panelists picked Illinois first and Michigan State second. Four of the five had Michigan third.

The league is deep in the same way the SEC is. ESPN projects 11 Big Ten teams in the field, and Torvik has nine in his top 31. Purdue, the preseason favorite for three straight years, was picked sixth.

One late change: Oregon’s Dana Altman retired less than a month before the season, and assistant Tony Stubblefield, the former DePaul head coach, is the interim for 2026-27. The Ducks were already ESPN’s first team out.

The market. DraftKings has Illinois at +120, about a 38% chance with the margin removed, then Michigan State (+475) and Michigan (+730). Nebraska is fourth at +940, which is where we have the Huskers and two spots above CBS’s panel.

1. Illinois — Big Ten title odds: 34%

• Strength: The best offense in the country by Torvik’s numbers. No team gets more threes from its frontcourt, and David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic and Tomislav Ivisic all return from a Final Four team.
• Weakness: The backcourt is new. Stefan Vaaks (15.8 points at Providence) and freshman Quentin Coleman replace Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, and Vaaks is not a defender. Mirkovic is also coming back from offseason foot surgery.
• The question: Torvik has the defense 18th. Is that good enough to win six games in March?
• Circle: at Duke, Nov. 17. Then UConn in Chicago on Dec. 4, and Michigan State’s only visit to Champaign on Feb. 5.

2. Michigan State — 20%

• Strength: Jeremy Fears Jr., the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year. He has Coen Carr, a healthy Kaleb Glenn and a top-10 recruiting class around him.
• Weakness: Center and turnovers. Carson Cooper is gone, and 7-2 Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke is not his equal defensively. Michigan State turned it over on 17.7% of its Big Ten possessions, 16th in the league.
• The question: CBS calls this the best Michigan State offense in years. Tom Izzo’s teams always defend and rebound. Do they finally score with the top of the league?
• Circle: vs. Duke, Nov. 10, in Chicago at the Champions Classic. At Tennessee a week later.

3. Michigan — 10%

• Strength: Elliot Cadeau was the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player, and Trey McKenney is on most breakout lists. Mike Boynton kept the roster together after Dusty May left.
• Weakness: Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara were the best frontcourt in the sport. Their replacements, Moustapha Thiam and J.P. Estrella, are talented and unproven at this level. Projected starting wing Roddy Gayle Jr. is waiting on a fifth-year ruling.
• The question: Boynton got a two-year deal. Is this an audition or a succession?
• Circle: vs. UConn, Nov. 6, in Boston. A title-game rematch in the first week.

4. Nebraska — 8%

• Strength: Offense. Pryce Sandfort made 129 threes and shot 70% at the rim, and Nebraska was in the 99th percentile in efficiency off cuts. All five projected starters can pass, dribble and shoot.
• Weakness: Defense. Sam Hoiberg, Berke Buyuktuncel, Rienk Mast and Jamarques Lawrence are all gone.
• The question: Torvik ranks this defense 11th. CBS puts the odds of another top-10 unit near zero and picked the Huskers sixth. We side with the model, narrowly.
• Circle: at Creighton, Dec. 5.

5. UCLA — 7%

• Strength: Three starters back from a 24-win team, plus Texas Tech transfer Jaylen Petty.
• Weakness: Rim protection. The Bruins also missed on several high-profile portal targets.
• The question: Nikola Kusturica turned 17 in April and may be the No. 1 pick in 2028. How fast does he adjust?
• Circle: vs. Arizona, Nov. 2, in Las Vegas on opening night. Gonzaga in Anaheim on Dec. 5.

6. USC — 4%

• Strength: Five McDonald’s All-Americans. Rodney Rice was averaging more than 20 points before he got hurt, and Alijah Arenas is a 2027 draft name.
• Weakness: Health and shot distribution. Eric Reibe and KJ Lewis spent much of the offseason recovering from injuries.
• The question: USC went 18-14 and missed the tournament. Is this Eric Musselman’s most talented team or just his most expensive?
• Circle: vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 13, in Fort Worth, as reported. USC has not published a full schedule.

The other 17% belongs to Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland. Maryland, picked 12th, gets its own section below.

The Big 12

Overview. Sixteen teams, eight in last year’s tournament, and the top two picks in the 2026 NBA Draft in BYU’s AJ Dybantsa and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson. The league office has said its goal is ten tournament teams. ESPN’s first bracket gives it 11.

Three of Torvik’s top eight are here: Arizona, Houston and Kansas. All five CBS panelists picked Arizona to win the league. They split three ways on second.

The market. DraftKings has Arizona at +205, about a 28% chance with the margin removed. Kansas (+415) and Houston (+425) are effectively level behind it, then Iowa State (+560) and Texas Tech (+680). The same Texas Tech team that is tied for seventh on FanDuel’s national title board is fifth in its own league.

1. Arizona — Big 12 title odds: 30%

• Strength: Defense. Motiejus Krivas is a 7-2 rim protector, Ivan Kharchenkov is one of the best wing defenders in the league, and Torvik ranks the unit second nationally.
• Weakness: Turnover. Koa Peat left, two of the top five scorers return, and both point guards are transfers.
• The question: Tommy Lloyd turned down North Carolina after taking Arizona to its first Final Four since 2001. Can five-star freshman Caleb Holt make it two straight?
• Circle: vs. UConn, Nov. 18, in Tucson. The rest of the slate is UCLA, at Auburn, the Maui Invitational, St. John’s at Madison Square Garden and Arkansas.

2. Houston — 17%

• Strength: The floor. Houston has finished in KenPom’s top four every year Joseph Tugler has been on the roster, and he was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2025.
• Weakness: Scoring. Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Chris Cenac are gone. Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty combined for 9.2 points per game.
• The question: Is LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. the next Houston point guard who looks better in this system than he did anywhere else?
• Circle: vs. Alabama, Dec. 8, in the Jimmy V Classic. Florida is a possible opponent in Las Vegas on Nov. 18.

3. Kansas — 16%

• Strength: Tyran Stokes, a 6-8 wing who is CBS’s pick for both Big 12 Player and Freshman of the Year. No freshman has won the league’s top award since Cade Cunningham in 2021.
• Weakness: Recent history. Kansas has finished tied for fifth, sixth and tied for third in the last three seasons and has not reached a Sweet 16 since the 2022 title.
• The question: Bill Self is 63, was hospitalized with AFib last season and considered retiring in the spring. Is this the last one?
• Circle: vs. Kentucky, Nov. 10, in Chicago. At UConn on Dec. 12.

4. Texas Tech — 11%

• Strength: JT Toppin, when he plays. He was the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year and was better last season.
• Weakness: Availability, in every sense. Toppin’s knee, and the eligibility of Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell.
• The question: Texas Tech has never won an outright Big 12 regular-season title. With everyone available, this is the roster that could.
• Circle: vs. Illinois, Nov. 10, in Lubbock. Duke at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 21.

5. Iowa State — 11%

• Strength: Defense at all three levels, ranked fifth by Torvik. Tamin Lipsey has started 137 games and won an NCAA Tournament game every year, if a court clears him for a fifth.
• Weakness: Offense, ranked 54th. Milan Momcilovic left for a reported $6 million at Kentucky, and Killyan Toure has an offseason shoulder injury.
• The question: T.J. Otzelberger has never missed the tournament in Ames. Who scores?
• Circle: vs. Purdue, Dec. 6, in Ames.

6. BYU — 5%

• Strength: Rob Wright (18.1 points, 4.6 assists) nearly left for Kentucky and stayed. Kevin Young has produced top-12 offenses in both of his seasons.
• Weakness: Size, unless Michigan State transfer Jaxon Kohler gets a fifth year.
• The question: Is Bruce Branch III, the No. 6 recruit, BYU’s third straight lottery pick?
• Circle: vs. Ohio State, Nov. 2, in Salt Lake City. Kansas visits Provo on Jan. 9.

The other 10% belongs to Baylor, Cincinnati, TCU and West Virginia.

The ACC

Overview. Eighteen teams. The league sent four to the tournament in 2025 and eight in 2026, and ESPN’s first bracket has seven in the 76-team field. All five CBS panelists picked Duke first.

Behind Duke is the most interesting second tier in the country. Virginia, Louisville and Miami are all in Torvik’s top 20, and each was picked second by at least one CBS voter. Five programs have new head coaches: North Carolina (Michael Malone), NC State (Justin Gainey), Syracuse (Gerry McNamara), Boston College (Luke Murray) and Georgia Tech (Scott Cross).

The market. DraftKings has Duke at -128, about a 47% chance with the margin removed. It then disagrees with us: Louisville is second at +400, with Miami (+660) just ahead of Virginia (+680). We have Virginia second on Torvik’s numbers and the returning core.

1. Duke — ACC title odds: 47%

• Strength: Depth. Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr return, Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell (19.1 points) arrives, and the No. 2 recruiting class includes Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Cameron Williams. Duke can go ten deep.
• Weakness: There is no Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer to build the offense around.
• The question: Jon Scheyer has won 70 games in two years and lost both seasons on late collapses, to Houston in the 2025 Final Four and UConn in the 2026 Elite Eight. Does that follow him until he wins a title?
• Circle: vs. Illinois, Nov. 17, at Cameron. It comes a week after Michigan State, eight days before UConn in Las Vegas and two weeks before a trip to Florida.

2. Virginia — 15%

• Strength: Shooting at all five spots, and Thijs De Ridder, a 23-year-old former pro who averaged 15.6 points as a freshman.
• Weakness: The ceiling of a roster built on mid-major transfers.
• The question: Virginia finished second last year after being picked fifth. Was 30 wins the new level under Ryan Odom?
• Circle: at Maryland, Nov. 13, five days after Arkansas in Washington. Kentucky visits Dec. 2, and UConn is at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 20.

3. Louisville — 15%

• Strength: Flory Bidunga, the top-ranked player in the portal, with 145 blocks in 69 career games. Opposing guards talk about him differently.
• Weakness: Pat Kelsey has never coached a top-20 defense, and almost nobody on this roster played for him last year. Projected starter Seth Trimble is waiting on a fifth-year ruling.
• The question: Louisville has not reached the second weekend since 2015. A roster near $20 million has to.
• Circle: vs. Texas, Dec. 1. At Kentucky on Dec. 12.

4. Miami — 11%

• Strength: A physical frontcourt with Georgia transfer Somto Cyril, and wing Shelton Henderson, who averaged 13.8 points as a freshman.
• Weakness: Depth at guard. Michigan transfer L.J. Cason is not expected to play after an ACL tear.
• The question: Malik Reneau. With him, ESPN has Miami 11th. Without him, 14th.
• Circle: vs. Florida, Nov. 2, in Tampa. Alabama visits Dec. 2.

5. Clemson — 3%

• Strength: Brad Brownell’s baseline. Clemson has made four of the last six tournaments.
• Weakness: Four transfers are projected to start, and two rotation players are coming off knee injuries.
• The question: Does Dillon Hunter, who started 35 games last season, get a fifth year?
• Circle: vs. Auburn, Dec. 1.

6. Virginia Tech — 3%

• Strength: The top two scorers, Ben Hammond and Amani Hansberry, return from a 19-win team. Torvik ranks the Hokies 33rd. DraftKings has them sixth in the ACC at +2700.
• Weakness: Seven transfers to work in.
• The question: Is this the year Mike Young ends a tournament drought that dates to 2022?
• Circle: at West Virginia, Dec. 5.

On North Carolina outside the top six. CBS’s panel has the Tar Heels fifth. We don’t, for the reasons in the fade section: a first-time college head coach, a roster reported at $20 million with no settled center, and a Torvik ranking of 48th. If Sayon Keita is cleared and is what the scouts say, we’ll be wrong by Christmas.

The other 6% belongs to North Carolina, NC State and Florida State.

The Big East

Overview. Eleven teams and, for two years running, two programs. SB Nation’s Mike Rutherford put it best: the league went from the most competitive conference in the sport to the Dan Hurley vs. Rick Pitino show. ESPN’s bracket still finds seven Big East bids in a 76-team field, which says more about the field than the league.

All five CBS panelists picked UConn first and St. John’s second. St. John’s is the two-time defending regular-season and tournament champion, something no Big East school had done before. UConn is 126-28 over the last four seasons and 18-2 in the NCAA Tournament. Three programs have new coaches: Providence (Bryan Hodgson), Creighton (Alan Huss) and Butler (Ronald Nored).

The market. DraftKings sees close to a coin flip: UConn +152 and St. John’s +164, roughly 34% and 33% with the margin removed. Marquette is third at +700, just ahead of Villanova at +760.

1. UConn — Big East title odds: 38%

• Strength: The backcourt. Silas Demary Jr. averaged 5.9 assists and is the preseason Player of the Year. Braylon Mullins beat Duke at the buzzer in the Elite Eight.
• Weakness: Offense, relatively. Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. are gone, Solo Ball is redshirting, and Torvik ranks the offense 39th.
• The question: Can Dan Hurley win a third title in five years with seven transfers and three freshmen?
• Circle: vs. Duke, Nov. 25, in Las Vegas, an Elite Eight rematch. Also Michigan on Nov. 6, at Arizona on Nov. 18 and Illinois on Dec. 4.

2. St. John’s — 30%

• Strength: Wing talent. Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou (17.8 points) pulled out of the draft late, and Ian Jackson returns.
• Weakness: Four of the top five scorers left, Donnie Freeman is out for the season with an Achilles injury, and four players, more than 20% of the roster, are waiting on judges.
• The question: Which roster shows up? ESPN has the full version 10th and the stripped version 20th.
• Circle: vs. Arizona, Dec. 5, at Madison Square Garden.

3. Villanova — 11%

• Strength: Size. Kevin Willard added 7-4 Luigi Suigo, Oregon’s Kwame Evans Jr. and Ohio State’s Devin Royal to a team that returns leading scorer Tyler Perkins.
• Weakness: A defense that ranked 347th in block rate has to prove the fix on the floor.
• The question: Is Villanova the team that closes the gap to the top two?
• Circle: at Kansas, Nov. 27. Michigan visits Philadelphia on Nov. 21.

4. Marquette — 9%

• Strength: Nigel James Jr., the reigning Big East Freshman of the Year (16.4 points, 4.9 assists, 2.0 steals), and more than 60% of last year’s scoring.
• Weakness: That scoring came from a 12-20 team.
• The question: Shaka Smart finally used the portal. Torvik ranks Marquette 27th. CBS’s panel picked it fourth. Rutherford has it seventh and wants to see it first. Who’s right?
• Circle: at Michigan, Nov. 11. Virginia in the Bahamas on Nov. 25.

5. Creighton — 5%

• Strength: Retention. Jackson McAndrew, Jasen Green, Austin Swartz, Isaac Traudt and Hudson Greer return after combining for about 39 points per game. McAndrew barely played last season because of injury.
• Weakness: The Bluejays went 16-18, their first losing season in more than a decade. Providence transfer Oswin Erhunmwunse was brought in to fix the defense. Two more transfers, Brody Robinson and Fred King, are waiting on rulings.
• The question: Alan Huss left High Point with the promise of this job and waited one season for it. Is his first year better than Greg McDermott’s last?
• Circle: vs. Michigan, Nov. 24, in Las Vegas.

6. Providence — 4%

• Strength: Bryan Hodgson, who took South Florida to the tournament in his only season there, and Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Miles Byrd.
• Weakness: A mostly new roster around holdover Ryan Mela, with three more players, including former G Leaguer Dink Pate, waiting on eligibility.
• The question: Byrd shot 40% from the field and Malik Mack shot 38% last season. Does Hodgson’s system fix that?
• Circle: vs. Nebraska, Nov. 7, at Mohegan Sun.

The other 3% belongs to Xavier and Georgetown.

The Best Of The Rest

Overview. Realignment broke up the Mountain West and rebuilt the Pac-12 around Gonzaga. The result is one clear best league outside the top five and a lot of one-bid anxiety everywhere else, even with eight more spots in the field.

Conference	Favorite (Torvik rank)	Next	The story
Pac-12	Gonzaga (21)	Utah State (59), San Diego State (67)	Nine teams, none ranked below 200. Gonzaga has made 27 straight tournaments and now gets more Quad 1 and 2 games than the WCC offered.
Atlantic 10	VCU (52)	Saint Louis (65), Dayton (72)	A two-bid league last year only because VCU won the conference tournament. Both tournament teams kept their cores.
Mountain West	Grand Canyon (42)	New Mexico (70), Nevada (82)	Lost five programs, four of them good. Grand Canyon is projected 25-6 and New Mexico has one of the best mid-major backcourts.
American	Wichita State (66)	Tulsa (90), South Florida (92)	A one-bid league two years running. Memphis is coming off Penny Hardaway’s worst season and sits 107th.
WCC	Saint Mary’s (62)	Santa Clara (88)	Gonzaga left for the Pac-12 and Randy Bennett left for Arizona State. A streak of seven straight multi-bid seasons is in danger.
Missouri Valley	Illinois Chicago (95)	Illinois State (103), Murray State (104)	Belmont and Northern Iowa both lost their coaches to bigger jobs.

The mid-major to know outside those leagues is High Point, which Torvik projects at 28-4 and 15-1 in the Big South.

The structural note is the one CBS made: the best programs from the Mountain and Pacific time zones are now split across two leagues because football money required it. A merged basketball conference would have been a real sixth power. Instead there are two good ones.

Maryland: Year Two Of Buzz Williams

The projection. We have Maryland at 21-11 and 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed. That is more optimistic than the field. Torvik projects 18-12 and 10-10 and ranks the Terps 38th. KenPom is lower still: 53rd overall, 49th on offense and 56th on defense, which puts Maryland 13th in the Big Ten. The Big Ten media picked them 12th and CBS’s panel picked them 11th. ESPN’s bracket has them as the second team out of a 76-team field. FanDuel lists the Terps at 100-to-1 to win the title, the same price as Ohio State, Iowa and Villanova. DraftKings has them 10th in the Big Ten title market at +3800.

Our full breakdown is here: Maryland Basketball 2026-27: Year Two of Buzz Williams. The short version follows.

• Strength: The frontcourt and the glass. Pharrel Payne, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, is in his third season with Williams. New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan was the only Mountain West player to average a double-double and set a school record with 141 offensive rebounds.
• Also a strength: Ball security. DJ Wagner had 85 assists to 23 turnovers last season and Tennessee transfer Bishop Boswell had 106 to 53. Last year Maryland played shooting guards at the point.
• Weakness: Shooting, and health. Mike McNair Jr. (44.4% from three, fifth nationally) and Maban Jabriel (44.0%) are the proven shooters. Payne played 10 games last season and Robert Jennings II played three.
• The question: Does the defense match the reputation? Williams was hired for it and finished 125th. Against top-50 opponents Maryland allowed 1.27 points per possession, last in Division I. Five of the additions were brought in specifically to defend.
• The freshman: Baba Oladotun of Silver Spring, 6-10 and No. 10 nationally, is the second-highest-rated signee in program history behind Diamond Stone. This may be his only season in College Park.
• Circle: Virginia at home on Nov. 13 and Tennessee in Las Vegas on Nov. 24. Both are in our top 11. Then South Carolina at CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore on Dec. 19.

The bar. Unlike much of the league, Maryland has nobody waiting on an eligibility ruling. After a 12-21 first season, and with a roster reported north of $14 million, missing a 76-team field would be close to disqualifying. The season likely turns on five road games against teams projected below Maryland: at Iowa (Jan. 9), Penn State (Jan. 30), Oregon (Feb. 17), Washington (Feb. 20) and Rutgers (Feb. 28). KenPom has Iowa (43rd) ahead of Maryland, so by that model the list is four games, not five.

Around the state. Torvik’s preseason ranks for the rest of the local Division I programs, out of 365: Towson 179, UMBC 261, Mount St. Mary’s 292, Navy 306, Loyola 337, Coppin State 356, Morgan State 361, Maryland Eastern Shore 365. Towson is projected 17-14 and UMBC 17-14. Several local players moved up this offseason: Towson’s Tyler Tejada (17.7 points) to Cincinnati, Loyola’s Jacob Theodosiou (13.1) to Duke, Mount St. Mary’s Luke McEldon (11.7) to Northwestern and UMES’s Justin Monden to Indiana.

National Unit Rankings

Top 8 Backcourts

1. UConn — Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins could both be preseason All-Americans. Demary is also one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
2. Duke — The deepest point guard room in the sport: John Blackwell, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer and five-star freshman Deron Rippey Jr.
3. Michigan State — Jeremy Fears Jr. is a Player of the Year favorite, and freshmen Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr. give Tom Izzo scoring he hasn’t had.
4. Alabama — Aden Holloway shot 44% from three, and Amari Allen is a projected first-round pick.
5. Vanderbilt — Tyler Tanner is on CBS’s preseason All-America first team, and Ace Glass averaged 16.4 points at Washington State.
6. Michigan — Elliot Cadeau ran a title team, and Trey McKenney is a second-team All-America pick at CBS as a sophomore.
7. BYU — Rob Wright, Collin Chandler (41% from three) and Bruce Branch III. The whole offense is built around Wright’s pick-and-roll game.
8. USC — Rodney Rice, KJ Lewis and Alijah Arenas, if they share.

Just missed: Florida (Boogie Fland and, pending the courts, Denzel Aberdeen), Arkansas, Louisville, Texas A&M (PJ Haggerty averaged 23.4 points at Kansas State), New Mexico.

Top 8 Frontcourts

1. Florida — Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu. ESPN calls it the best frontcourt in the country, and all three have a title ring.
2. Illinois — David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers. No frontcourt shoots more threes.
3. Arizona — Motiejus Krivas may be the best center in the country. Add RJ Godfrey if he is cleared.
4. Gonzaga — Braden Huff averaged 17.8 points, and 7-1 Massamba Diop was one of the best young bigs in the Big 12 at Arizona State.
5. Duke — Patrick Ngongba II plus two of the best freshman bigs in the sport, Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and Cameron Williams.
6. Texas — David Punch and Matas Vokietaitis will live at the free throw line.
7. Louisville — Flory Bidunga had 82 dunks last season and can guard all five positions.
8. Houston — Joseph Tugler and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie, who averaged 17.7 points.

Just missed: Texas Tech (JT Toppin alone, once healthy), Virginia, Indiana, Maryland (Pharrel Payne and Tomislav Buljan), LSU.

Top 10 Coaching Staffs

Head coach plus roster construction, which in 2026 is half the job.

1. UConn. Dan Hurley has played in three national title games in four years. He lost his top assistant, Luke Murray, to Boston College and rebuilt the roster with seven transfers anyway.

2. Houston. Kelvin Sampson has seven straight Sweet 16s and five straight 30-win seasons. He lost four NBA players and Torvik still has the Cougars fifth. That is a system.

3. Florida. Todd Golden won the 2025 title and then did the harder thing: he kept the team together. Six of the top seven scorers returning is a retention result no other contender matched.

4. Michigan State. Tom Izzo has the Big Ten’s best player, a top-10 recruiting class and five of his top eight scorers back. He needed a center and found one in the portal.

5. Duke. Jon Scheyer has won 70 games in two seasons, a program record, and signed the No. 2 class. The late-game losses are the only thing keeping him out of the top three.

6. Arizona. Tommy Lloyd reached the Final Four, turned down North Carolina, lost three of his top five scorers and is still everyone’s Big 12 pick.

7. Alabama. CBS calls Nate Oats the best offensive coach in the country. The numbers back it: top four in adjusted offense every year since 2023.

8. Kansas. Bill Self lost most of a roster to the draft and portal and still landed the No. 1 recruit. The last three seasons are why he is eighth and not second.

9. St. John’s. Rick Pitino had three players drafted in June and replaced four of his top five scorers with a group that could be top ten if the courts cooperate.

10. Iowa State. T.J. Otzelberger has made the tournament every year, and he keeps doing it with defense after losing his best scorer to a bigger budget.

Just missed: Tennessee (Rick Barnes), Arkansas (John Calipari), Gonzaga (Mark Few, in year 28), Iowa (Ben McCollum), Virginia (Ryan Odom), BYU (Kevin Young), Illinois (Brad Underwood) and Arizona State, where roughly 100 coaches surveyed by CBS named Randy Bennett the best high-major hire of the cycle.

The Individual Awards

Top 5 Player Of The Year Candidates

1. Thomas Haugh, F, Florida. The best player on the best team. He averaged 17.1 points, surprised the sport by passing on the draft, and plays next to two other frontcourt starters who draw attention. ESPN frames the preseason race as Haugh against Fears. We lean Haugh because Florida should win more.

2. Jeremy Fears Jr., G, Michigan State. The Big Ten’s preseason Player of the Year and the top senior on Andy Katz’s list. He led the country with 9.4 assists per game and runs everything for a top-six team. No Big Ten player has ever averaged 10 in a season. If Michigan State wins the Big Ten, he probably wins this.

3. Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt. He averaged 19.5 points, 5.1 assists and 2.4 steals and led Vanderbilt to a 16-0 start. The numbers will be there. The question is whether a team projected 10-8 in the SEC wins enough.

4. Tyran Stokes, F, Kansas. The No. 1 recruit, the projected No. 1 pick and CBS’s choice for Big 12 Player of the Year as a freshman. Kansas needs a star season from him to contend.

5. David Mirkovic, F, Illinois. A sophomore forward who can pass, dribble and shoot, at the center of the best projected offense in the country. ESPN expects an All-America season once he is back from offseason foot surgery.

Best case nobody is making: JT Toppin, who averaged 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds before his injury and would be on every list if his knee had a date attached. Longshots: Rob Wright (BYU), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Flory Bidunga (Louisville), Thijs De Ridder (Virginia). Dick Vitale’s first team and CBS’s first team are the same five: Fears, Haugh, Tanner, Bidunga and Wright.

Top 8 Freshmen

1. Tyran Stokes, Kansas — No. 1 in the class. Kansas has had two No. 1 overall picks; he could be the third.
2. Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas — No. 2 in the class and Katz’s most impactful freshman. A two-way point guard replacing Darius Acuff Jr.
3. Caleb Holt, Arizona — No. 3 in the class, with an 81-inch wingspan, starting for a title contender.
4. Jason Crowe Jr., Missouri — ESPN’s pick to be the most productive freshman in the country.
5. Bruce Branch III, BYU — No. 6 in the class, a 6-7 shooter in an offense built for shooters.
6. Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, Duke — From FC Barcelona. Not eligible for the 2027 draft, so Duke has him for two seasons.
7. Nikola Kusturica, UCLA — Also from FC Barcelona, also two years away from the draft. He averaged 24.6 points at the FIBA U17 World Cup, and CBS picked him Big Ten Freshman of the Year.
8. Marcus Spears Jr., Texas — Was the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class before reclassifying. He is 6-10 with a 7-2 wingspan.

Next: Cameron Williams (Duke), Anthony Thompson (Ohio State), Christian Collins (USC), Baba Oladotun (Maryland), Dylan Mingo (Baylor), Miles Sadler (West Virginia).

Top 8 Transfers

More than 2,700 players entered the portal in the richest cycle the sport has seen.

1. Flory Bidunga, Louisville (from Kansas) — The top-ranked player in the portal. He averaged 13.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks on 64% shooting.
2. Milan Momcilovic, Kentucky (from Iowa State) — Led the country with 136 made threes.
3. John Blackwell, Duke (from Wisconsin) — Averaged 19.1 points and tops Katz’s transfer list.
4. Juke Harris, Tennessee (from Wake Forest) — Averaged 21.4 points, with seven games of 28 or more.
5. Tounde Yessoufou, St. John’s (from Baylor) — Averaged 17.8 points as a freshman and withdrew from the draft at the last minute.
6. PJ Haggerty, Texas A&M (from Kansas State) — Has scored in double figures in 94 of his last 96 games.
7. David Punch, Texas (from TCU) — A 6-7, 245-pound forward who can guard every position.
8. Massamba Diop, Gonzaga (from Arizona State) — A 7-1 center with a face-up game, now playing for Mark Few.

Next: Stefan Vaaks (Illinois), Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State), Acaden Lewis (Miami), Miles Byrd (Providence), Matt Able (North Carolina).

Quick Hits

• Most continuity among contenders: Florida, with 78.8% of last year’s minutes back per Torvik. Least: Cincinnati at 0.0% under first-year coach Jerrod Calhoun, and Torvik still ranks the Bearcats 36th.
• First game: Notre Dame vs. Villanova in Rome on Nov. 1, with a 9:30 a.m. ET tip. Opening night proper is Nov. 2: Florida-Miami in Tampa, Arizona-UCLA and Gonzaga-Purdue in Las Vegas, and BYU-Ohio State in Salt Lake City.
• New coaches: More than 50 across Division I. Roughly 100 coaches polled by CBS named Randy Bennett at Arizona State the best high-major hire.
• Boomerangs: Darrion Williams is back at Texas Tech after a year at NC State. Dior Johnson is back at UCF after averaging 24.0 points at Tarleton State, second nationally to AJ Dybantsa.
• Oldest roster bet: Auburn, where every transfer is in at least his fourth college season.
• Hottest seats: Mark Pope (Kentucky), Jeff Capel (Pitt), Micah Shrewsberry (Notre Dame), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Ed Cooley (Georgetown).
• Droughts on the line: Texas has not made a Final Four in 24 years. Vanderbilt has not reached the second weekend since 2007. Louisville has not since 2015. Tennessee has never made a Final Four. Boston College has not made the tournament since 2009.
• Our Final Four: Florida, Duke, Illinois, Arizona. It is chalk, and in a year this unsettled we think chalk is the contrarian pick.

Five Biggest Storylines Entering The Season

1. Who is allowed to play? The five-for-five rule passed in June without covering last year’s seniors. Hundreds sued. Some have injunctions and some are still waiting, a few weeks before the first game. Coaches who built rosters assuming those players were finished are furious, and coaches who left spots open for them look smart. The first time a temporary injunction is reversed in January, a ranked team loses a starter mid-season. Expect it.

2. The field is 76. Eight more teams, almost all of them from the middle of the major conferences. ESPN’s first projection gives the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten 34 bids combined. The Atlantic 10 is the only other league with more than one. Expansion was sold as access. The early math says it is a subsidy for 9-9.

3. Michigan without Dusty May. No champion has lost its coach this way since 1988. Mike Boynton kept the roster, and Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney are a real backcourt. But the best frontcourt in the country is in the NBA and the top freshman tore his ACL. If Michigan finishes top three in the Big Ten, Boynton keeps the job. If not, this is a one-year bridge.

4. The SEC’s money. The league sent a record 14 teams to the 2025 tournament, slipped to 10 last year, and has spent its way forward again: 10 top-30 scorers retained, 11 more imported, and roster budgets from $8 million to more than $20 million. Twelve bids in the first bracket is the result.

5. Four coaches and one question each. Does Jon Scheyer close? Does Pat Kelsey’s spending produce a second weekend? Does Mark Pope survive year three? Is this Bill Self’s last team? All four have rosters good enough to answer yes. Not all four will.

Two Rankings

Everything above is downstream of one fact, so we’ll end where we started.

ESPN ranked every team twice because it had to. A preseason poll is supposed to be a guess about how good teams are. This year it is first a guess about who is on them. Texas Tech’s range is ninth to unranked. Gonzaga’s is eight spots. Arizona’s title case is one forward’s paperwork.

It is why our Final Four percentages add up to less than three of the four spots. It is why the models and the polls disagree by ten places or more on Houston and Texas. It is why the defending champion is 10th in Torvik, 22nd at ESPN and 28th at KenPom.

And it is why the teams at the very top look the way they do. Florida is No. 1 because it is the one contender that mostly knows who it is. Six of the top seven scorers back. One open question, and a capable answer either way. Duke, Illinois and Michigan State are right behind for the same reason. In a sport where a roster is a one-year lease, the teams that renewed are the favorites.

The bracket got bigger this year. The list of teams that can actually win it got smaller.